Hayden Wesneski
P
Houston Astros
+0.1
WAR
INJURED · Injured 60-Day (D60)
Age 28
RHP
6'3" / 210 lbs
MLB
peak 0.1 · 2027
ERA4.53
FIP4.66
xFIP3.81
SIERA3.84
K%23.0%
BB%7.3%
K-BB%15.8%
IP53
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2027
STUF5050
CTRL6060
CMD5555
K†5555
FB Velo
p4193.9
Whiff%
p3523.2%
K%
p5022.1%
xwOBA vs
p420.321
SL+1.7 (25%)
CH+0.8 (7%)
SI (10%)
CU (9%)
CT (11%)
FB-1.2 (48%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | 25 | 24 | 130 | 524 | 151 | 36 | 13 | 23.2% | 7.2% | 3.1% | 3.25 | 3.77 | +2.3 |
| 2022 | 24 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 30 | 27 | 143 | 589 | 139 | 42 | 13 | 21.4% | 7.4% | 2.4% | 3.52 | 3.55 | +2.8 |
| 2023 | 25 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 39 | 16 | 109 | 458 | 111 | 39 | 22 | 23.5% | 8.6% | 4.9% | 4.03 | 4.88 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 26 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 35 | 10 | 83 | 351 | 84 | 26 | 13 | 23.4% | 7.5% | 3.7% | 3.78 | 4.13 | +1.0 |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB | Houston Astros | 6 | 6 | 32 | 131 | 29 | 6 | 7 | 22.1% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 4.50 | 4.84 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | HOU | 16 | — | 16 | 67 | 15 | 5 | 3 | 22.9% | 6.9% | 4.1% | 4.51 | 4.64 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | HOU | 52 | — | 52 | 219 | 49 | 15 | 9 | 22.4% | 6.9% | 4.1% | 4.63 | 4.72 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | HOU | 50 | — | 50 | 212 | 46 | 15 | 9 | 21.9% | 7.0% | 4.2% | 4.74 | 4.81 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | HOU | 48 | — | 48 | 205 | 44 | 15 | 9 | 21.3% | 7.2% | 4.2% | 4.84 | 4.91 | +0.0 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB | HOU | 47 | — | 47 | 197 | 41 | 14 | 8 | 20.6% | 7.3% | 4.3% | 4.95 | 5.03 | -0.0 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB | HOU | 44 | — | 44 | 188 | 38 | 14 | 8 | 20.0% | 7.5% | 4.4% | 5.07 | 5.16 | -0.1 |
| 2032 | 34 | MLB | HOU | 42 | — | 42 | 179 | 34 | 14 | 8 | 19.3% | 7.7% | 4.5% | 5.20 | 5.29 | -0.2 |
| 2033 | 35 | MLB | HOU | 40 | — | 40 | 168 | 31 | 13 | 8 | 18.5% | 7.9% | 4.6% | 5.35 | 5.45 | -0.2 |
| 2034 | 36 | MLB | HOU | 37 | — | 37 | 157 | 28 | 13 | 7 | 17.8% | 8.2% | 4.7% | 5.51 | 5.61 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 135 | 83 | 498 | 2053 | 466 | 153 | 73 | 22.7% | 7.5% | 3.6% | 3.67 | 4.09 | +6.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 54 | 33 | 200 | 824 | 187 | 61 | 29 | 22.7% | 7.5% | 3.6% | 3.67 | 4.09 | +2.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Hayden Wesneski (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.64 | 22.9% | 6.9% | 4.1% | — | 4.81 | 21.9% | 14.8% | 151 | +0.17 | — | — | — |
| David Hernandez R 2028 · 4.62 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.62 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.5% | .287 | 3.18 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.44 | 2.56 | 268 | 77 |
| Matt Ramsey R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.76 | 24.9% | 8.8% | 3.0% | .276 | 2.42 | 21.7% | 12.6% | 34 | -1.34 | 2.42 | 125 | 75 |
| Mitchell Stumpo R 2026 · 4.70 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.70 | 22.6% | 7.1% | 4.8% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.90 | 158 | 74 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.68 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.1% | .289 | 3.07 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -0.61 | 2.31 | 403 | 73 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2027 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.33 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.6% | .241 | 3.99 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.34 | 3.47 | 149 | 73 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2027 · 3.52 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.52 | 22.1% | 7.5% | 2.4% | .283 | 3.61 | 22.2% | 13.6% | 174 | +0.09 | 3.17 | 272 | 73 |
| Drew Storen R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.77 | 21.1% | 5.3% | 3.2% | .304 | 3.89 | 19.5% | 11.6% | 65 | +0.12 | 2.26 | 172 | 72 |
| Marc Magliaro R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.01 | 19.6% | 7.3% | 3.0% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.00 | 125 | 72 |
| J.J. Hoover R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.61 | 22.6% | 8.6% | 4.2% | .350 | 5.75 | 20.3% | 10.0% | 137 | +1.14 | 4.26 | 258 | 72 |
| Rob Wooten R 2028 · 4.91 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.91 | 19.3% | 5.5% | 5.0% | .299 | 3.86 | 17.7% | 14.4% | 111 | -1.05 | 3.19 | 191 | 71 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2029 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.73 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .325 | 3.80 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.07 | 3.65 | 137 | 71 |
| Gerardo Sanchez R 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.47 | 21.6% | 8.4% | 2.1% | .355 | 3.57 | 20.5% | 15.1% | 56 | +0.10 | 2.59 | 137 | 71 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2028 · 5.16 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.16 | 18.6% | 7.6% | 4.9% | .373 | 3.54 | 18.5% | 9.3% | 93 | -1.62 | 3.45 | 170 | 70 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.48 | 24.5% | 7.9% | 2.6% | .302 | 3.74 | 22.8% | 13.6% | 168 | +0.26 | 1.69 | 468 | 70 |
| Kelvin Herrera R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.88 | 20.7% | 5.4% | 3.3% | .285 | 3.90 | 22.6% | 15.4% | 51 | +0.02 | 2.35 | 297 | 70 |
| Grant Hartwig R 2025 · 4.32 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.32 | 25.7% | 8.4% | 4.2% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.52 | 179 | 70 |
| Bryan Shaw R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.54 | 25.1% | 9.1% | 2.6% | .277 | 3.88 | 21.1% | 12.7% | 203 | +0.34 | 2.86 | 596 | 70 |
| John Gorman R 2025 · 3.99 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.99 | 23.4% | 7.5% | 3.5% | .366 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.07 | 141 | 70 |
| Ryan Pressly R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.77 | 24.2% | 5.6% | 3.7% | .251 | 2.32 | 34.0% | 27.5% | 146 | -1.45 | 1.82 | 586 | 70 |
| Joakim Soria R 2029 · 3.48 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.48 | 23.5% | 6.6% | 2.8% | .258 | 2.91 | 26.6% | 18.9% | 183 | -0.57 | 2.00 | 380 | 69 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.