Hayden Wesneski — OGILVIE

Hayden Wesneski P Houston Astros

Age 28 RHP 6'3" / 210 lbs MLB

2026 ROS PROJECTION66 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10799vR 91

ERA4.08

FIP4.22

K%22.0%

BB%6.7%

K-BB%15.4%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL6060

CMD5555

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3793.6

Whiff%

p4424.5%

p3520.0%

xwOBA vs

p650.297

SL+1.7 (25%)

CH+0.8 (7%)

SI (10%)

CU (9%)

CT (11%)

FB-1.2 (48%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	24	130	524	151	36	13	96%	5.2	23.2%	7.2%	15.9%	3.1%	3.25	3.79	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	25	24	130	524	151	36	13	96%	5.2	28.8%	6.9%	21.9%	2.5%	3.25	2.91	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	27	143	589	139	42	13	90%	4.8	21.4%	7.4%	14.0%	2.4%	3.52	3.55	+2.3
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	27	143	589	139	42	13	90%	4.8	23.6%	7.1%	16.5%	2.2%	3.52	3.22	+3.0
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	16	109	458	111	39	22	41%	2.8	23.2%	8.3%	14.9%	5.0%	4.03	4.96	-0.5
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	16	109	458	111	39	22	41%	2.8	23.2%	8.3%	14.9%	5.0%	4.03	4.96	-0.5
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	16	109	458	111	39	22	41%	2.8	24.2%	8.5%	15.7%	4.8%	4.03	4.76	-0.3
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	10	83	351	84	26	13	29%	2.4	23.1%	7.3%	15.8%	3.8%	3.78	4.18	+0.4
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	10	83	351	84	26	13	29%	2.4	23.1%	7.3%	15.8%	3.8%	3.78	4.18	+0.4
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	10	83	351	84	26	13	29%	2.4	23.9%	7.4%	16.5%	3.7%	3.78	4.05	+0.5
2025	27	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	6	6	32	131	29	6	7	100%	5.3	22.1%	4.6%	17.6%	5.5%	4.50	4.83	+0.0
2025	27	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	6	6	32	131	29	6	7	100%	5.3	22.1%	4.6%	17.6%	5.5%	4.50	4.83	+0.0
2025	27	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	6	6	32	131	29	6	7	100%	5.3	22.1%	4.6%	17.6%	5.3%	4.50	4.69	+0.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			82	36	268	1105	248	79	45	44%	3.3	22.4%	7.1%	15.3%	4.1%	3.90	4.32	+0.7
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	13	13	66	261	57	18	4	100%	5.1	21.3%	7.1%	14.2%	1.8%	3.02	3.18	+1.4
YTD	28	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	13	13	66	261	57	18	4	100%	5.1	21.3%	7.1%	14.2%	1.8%	3.02	3.18	+1.4
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	ROK RAW	HOU	1	1	3	10	1	0	0	100%	3.0	10.0%	0.0%	10.0%	0.0%	0.00	2.26	—
2026	28	AA RAW	HOU	1	1	4	16	3	1	0	100%	4.0	18.8%	6.2%	12.5%	0.0%	2.25	2.31	—
2026	28	AAA RAW	HOU	3	3	13	55	17	3	1	100%	4.3	30.9%	5.5%	25.5%	1.8%	2.77	2.18	—
2026	28	MLB RAW	HOU	8	8	46	180	36	14	3	100%	5.7	20.0%	7.8%	12.2%	1.7%	3.35	3.31	+0.9
SO FAR	28	MLB RAW	HOU	8	8	46	180	36	14	3	100%	5.7	20.0%	7.8%	12.2%	1.7%	3.35	3.31	+0.9
ROS	28	MLB MLE	HOU	1	1	4	19	4	1	1	100%	4.5	22.0%	6.7%	15.4%	3.9%	4.08	4.22	+0.0
ROS	28	MLB CTX	HOU	1	1	4	17	4	1	1	100%	4.0	22.0%	6.7%	15.4%	3.9%	4.08	4.22	+0.0
2026 TOT	28	MLB MLE	HOU	—	—	70	280	61	19	5	—	—	21.9%	6.9%	15.0%	1.7%	3.08	3.24	+1.2
FULL	28	MLB A+C	HOU	—	—	50	212	61	19	5	—	—	28.9%	9.1%	19.8%	2.2%	4.31	3.04	+0.8
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	HOU	8	8	51	214	45	15	8	100%	6.3	21.1%	7.1%	14.0%	3.6%	4.45	4.57	+0.2
2028	30	MLB MLE	HOU	8	8	48	201	41	15	8	100%	6.0	20.4%	7.4%	13.0%	3.8%	4.65	4.78	+0.1
2029	31	MLB MLE	HOU	7	7	44	188	37	15	8	100%	6.4	19.6%	7.7%	11.9%	4.0%	4.87	5.01	-0.1
2027	29	MLB CTX	HOU	8	8	48	203	43	14	7	100%	6.0	21.1%	7.1%	14.0%	3.6%	4.45	4.57	+0.2
2028	30	MLB CTX	HOU	8	8	45	190	39	14	7	100%	5.6	20.4%	7.4%	13.0%	3.8%	4.65	4.78	+0.1
2029	31	MLB CTX	HOU	7	7	42	177	35	14	7	100%	6.0	19.6%	7.7%	11.9%	4.0%	4.87	5.01	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		106	60	408	1697	369	123	67	57%	3.8	21.8%	7.2%	14.5%	4.0%	4.15	4.36	+2.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		52	29	200	832	181	60	33	56%	3.9	21.8%	7.2%	14.5%	4.0%	4.15	4.36	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		148	96	564	2314	520	170	79	65%	3.8	22.5%	7.3%	15.1%	3.4%	3.59	4.01	+2.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	34	200	821	184	60	28	65%	3.8	22.5%	7.3%	15.1%	3.4%	3.59	4.01	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Hayden Wesneski (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.62	22.7%	6.4%	4.1%	—	4.78	20.4%	13.0%	143	+0.16	—	—	—
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	70
Raynel Espinal R 2019 · 3.90 FIP	27	SP-	3.90	22.4%	7.1%	3.2%	.313	4.01	22.3%	12.4%	224	+0.11	2.48	507	69
Omar Bencomo R 2017 · 4.50 FIP	28	SP-	4.50	18.9%	6.3%	4.0%	.333	4.48	14.9%	10.1%	186	-0.02	3.70	381	67
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.15	17.6%	6.7%	202	+1.50	3.65	245	65
Hector Noesí R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	250	65
Kris Medlen R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	29	SP-	4.82	15.4%	6.4%	4.0%	.261	5.17	17.1%	8.6%	173	+0.35	4.59	261	64
Nate Karns R 2016 · 3.88 FIP	28	SP-	3.88	24.2%	10.6%	2.7%	.322	4.46	27.1%	20.7%	45	+0.58	3.88	287	64
Matt Cain R 2015 · 4.88 FIP	30	SP-	4.88	17.1%	6.8%	4.3%	.296	4.87	15.2%	7.6%	214	-0.01	4.82	294	64
Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	20.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.309	3.50	21.1%	13.0%	142	-0.21	1.87	251	62
Yohan Pino R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	31	SP-	4.13	17.8%	5.8%	3.3%	.312	5.33	15.2%	11.6%	35	+1.20	4.13	133	62
Sean Harney R 2023 · 3.55 FIP	25	SP-	3.55	18.2%	9.8%	1.4%	.285	4.74	16.5%	5.1%	59	+1.19	3.55	123	61
Cody Anderson R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	28	SP	4.33	18.9%	7.5%	3.4%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	279	61
Nick Tropeano R 2019 · 4.96 FIP	28	SP-	4.96	20.3%	9.2%	4.4%	.336	3.93	22.7%	10.0%	83	-1.03	2.34	446	61
Ariel Peña R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	28	SP	3.99	22.5%	12.0%	2.3%	.304	6.07	19.9%	-5.7%	21	+2.08	3.74	223	61
Markus Solbach R 2019 · 3.58 FIP	27	SP	3.58	16.9%	6.1%	2.1%	.311	4.62	17.1%	9.1%	111	+1.04	3.34	391	61
Jacob Turner R 2018 · 4.48 FIP	27	SP-	4.48	14.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	340	60
Colin Rea R 2018 · 5.61 FIP	28	SP	5.61	17.6%	11.3%	4.7%	.344	4.14	17.7%	9.8%	198	-1.47	2.57	1,112	60
Jorge Martinez R 2016 · 3.53 FIP	31	SP-	3.53	12.9%	5.3%	1.6%	.266	3.71	16.5%	11.5%	154	+0.18	3.53	214	59
Mike Bolsinger R 2016 · 4.20 FIP	28	SP-	4.20	21.9%	8.3%	3.4%	.349	4.26	20.2%	10.8%	89	+0.06	3.42	327	59
Christian Bergman R 2016 · 4.74 FIP	28	SW	4.74	15.3%	5.6%	4.0%	.309	4.62	15.0%	9.1%	322	-0.12	3.99	467	59

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	49	21.0%	7.1%	1.50	4.60
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63
Eli Morgan ('24)	1.3	66	23.8%	6.4%	1.46	3.97
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86