Hayden Wesneski
P
Sugar Land Space Cowboys
Age 28
RHP
6'3" / 210 lbs
AAA
ILInjured 60-Day (D60)
2026 ROS PROJECTION12 act + 36 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122112vR 103
ERA4.41
FIP4.52
K%22.7%
BB%6.4%
K-BB%16.3%
ROS IP36
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 47 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p4193.9
Whiff%
p3523.2%
K%
p5022.1%
xwOBA vs
p420.321
SL+1.7 (25%)
CH+0.8 (7%)
SI (10%)
CU (9%)
CT (11%)
FB-1.2 (48%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 25 | 24 | 130 | 524 | 151 | 36 | 13 | 96% | 5.2 | 23.2% | 7.2% | 15.9% | 3.0% | 3.25 | 3.72 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 25 | 24 | 130 | 524 | 151 | 36 | 13 | 96% | 5.2 | 28.8% | 6.9% | 21.9% | 2.5% | 3.25 | 2.91 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 27 | 143 | 589 | 139 | 42 | 13 | 90% | 4.8 | 21.4% | 7.4% | 14.0% | 2.4% | 3.52 | 3.54 | +3.1 |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 27 | 143 | 589 | 139 | 42 | 13 | 90% | 4.8 | 23.6% | 7.1% | 16.5% | 2.2% | 3.52 | 3.22 | +3.7 |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 16 | 109 | 458 | 111 | 39 | 22 | 41% | 2.8 | 23.5% | 8.6% | 14.9% | 4.8% | 4.03 | 4.83 | +0.7 |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 16 | 109 | 458 | 111 | 39 | 22 | 41% | 2.8 | 24.2% | 8.5% | 15.7% | 4.8% | 4.03 | 4.76 | +0.8 |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 10 | 83 | 351 | 84 | 26 | 13 | 29% | 2.4 | 23.4% | 7.5% | 15.9% | 3.6% | 3.78 | 4.05 | +1.0 |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 10 | 83 | 351 | 84 | 26 | 13 | 29% | 2.4 | 23.9% | 7.4% | 16.5% | 3.7% | 3.78 | 4.05 | +1.0 |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB | Houston Astros | 6 | 6 | 32 | 131 | 29 | 6 | 7 | 100% | 5.3 | 22.1% | 4.6% | 17.6% | 5.0% | 4.50 | 4.58 | -0.0 |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB | Houston Astros | 6 | 6 | 32 | 131 | 29 | 6 | 7 | 100% | 5.3 | 22.1% | 4.6% | 17.6% | 5.3% | 4.50 | 4.69 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | 3 | 3 | 12 | 45 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 3.9 | — | — | — | — | 1.54 | — | — |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | HOU | 6 | 6 | 36 | 151 | 34 | 10 | 6 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.7% | 6.4% | 16.3% | 3.9% | 4.41 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | HOU | 3 | 3 | 16 | 68 | 15 | 4 | 3 | 100% | 5.3 | 22.7% | 6.4% | 16.3% | 3.9% | 4.41 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 28 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 47 | 196 | 45 | 11 | 7 | — | — | 23.1% | 5.4% | 17.7% | 3.5% | 3.70 | 3.41 | +0.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 28 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 16 | 68 | 15 | 4 | 3 | — | — | 22.7% | 6.4% | 16.3% | 3.9% | 4.41 | 4.14 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | HOU | 8 | 8 | 51 | 214 | 47 | 14 | 9 | 100% | 6.3 | 22.1% | 6.6% | 15.5% | 4.1% | 4.57 | 4.68 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | HOU | 8 | 8 | 48 | 201 | 43 | 14 | 9 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.4% | 6.9% | 14.5% | 4.3% | 4.76 | 4.89 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | HOU | 7 | 7 | 44 | 188 | 39 | 14 | 8 | 100% | 6.4 | 20.7% | 7.3% | 13.4% | 4.5% | 4.98 | 5.12 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | HOU | 5 | 5 | 31 | 131 | 29 | 9 | 5 | 100% | 6.2 | 22.1% | 6.6% | 15.5% | 4.1% | 4.57 | 4.68 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | HOU | 6 | 6 | 34 | 144 | 31 | 10 | 6 | 100% | 5.7 | 21.4% | 6.9% | 14.5% | 4.3% | 4.76 | 4.89 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | HOU | 6 | 6 | 35 | 148 | 31 | 11 | 7 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.7% | 7.3% | 13.4% | 4.5% | 4.98 | 5.12 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 95 | 49 | 338 | 1415 | 318 | 99 | 63 | 52% | 3.6 | 22.5% | 7.0% | 15.5% | 4.4% | 4.26 | 4.52 | +3.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 56 | 29 | 200 | 837 | 188 | 59 | 37 | 51% | 3.6 | 22.5% | 7.0% | 15.5% | 4.4% | 4.26 | 4.52 | +2.1 | ||
| Career | — | 138 | 86 | 510 | 2098 | 477 | 154 | 72 | 62% | 3.7 | 22.7% | 7.4% | 15.4% | 3.4% | 3.62 | 3.99 | +8.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 54 | 34 | 200 | 823 | 187 | 60 | 28 | 62% | 3.7 | 22.7% | 7.4% | 15.4% | 3.4% | 3.62 | 3.99 | +3.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Hayden Wesneski (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.52 | 22.7% | 6.4% | 3.9% | — | 4.89 | 21.5% | 14.5% | 143 | +0.37 | — | — | — |
| Raynel Espinal R 2025 · 3.76 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.76 | 22.4% | 7.1% | 3.0% | .313 | 3.72 | 22.3% | 12.4% | 224 | -0.04 | 2.53 | 507 | 68 |
| Fabio Castillo R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.00 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 195 | 67 |
| Preston Johnson R 2024 · 3.47 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.47 | 23.4% | 9.5% | 2.1% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 146 | 66 |
| Omar Bencomo R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 18.9% | 6.3% | 3.8% | .333 | 4.43 | 14.9% | 10.1% | 186 | +0.05 | 3.67 | 381 | 64 |
| Kris Medlen R 2027 · 4.77 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.77 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 4.0% | .261 | 5.16 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 173 | +0.39 | 4.66 | 261 | 61 |
| Hector Noesí R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 60 |
| Matt Cain R 2028 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.90 | 17.1% | 6.8% | 4.3% | .296 | 4.88 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 214 | -0.02 | 4.83 | 294 | 60 |
| Asher Wojciechowski R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.02 | 23.4% | 6.5% | 3.8% | .299 | 4.94 | 21.5% | 13.1% | 323 | +0.92 | 3.19 | 678 | 59 |
| Yohan Pino R 2029 · 3.95 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.95 | 17.8% | 5.8% | 2.9% | .312 | 5.48 | 15.2% | 11.6% | 35 | +1.53 | 3.95 | 133 | 59 |
| Tristan Beck R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.18 | 21.9% | 5.4% | 4.1% | .348 | 3.55 | 20.9% | 12.1% | 118 | -0.63 | 3.52 | 473 | 58 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 4.15 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.15 | 18.9% | 7.9% | 3.0% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.87 | 247 | 58 |
| Connor Schultz R 2025 · 4.85 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.85 | 21.5% | 10.9% | 4.0% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 171 | 58 |
| Blake Beers R 2025 · 4.20 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.20 | 18.3% | 9.1% | 2.7% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.20 | 416 | 57 |
| Tanner Gordon R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.25 | 21.0% | 4.3% | 4.3% | .330 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.24 | 662 | 57 |
| Sam Lewis R 2025 · 3.43 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.43 | 21.0% | 10.8% | 1.3% | .246 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.10 | 224 | 57 |
| Nate Karns R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.92 | 24.2% | 10.6% | 2.8% | .322 | 4.43 | 27.1% | 20.7% | 45 | +0.51 | 3.92 | 287 | 57 |
| Brett Sears R 2024 · 3.56 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.56 | 23.9% | 5.8% | 3.2% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 167 | 56 |
| Jake Walkinshaw R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.11 | 16.1% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .244 | 3.82 | 15.6% | 4.1% | 68 | -0.29 | 2.20 | 286 | 56 |
| Christian Bergman R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.43 | 15.3% | 5.6% | 3.5% | .309 | 4.70 | 15.0% | 9.1% | 322 | +0.27 | 3.80 | 467 | 56 |
| Brian Edgington R 2024 · 5.05 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.05 | 19.3% | 12.3% | 3.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 171 | 55 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 45 | 21.7% | 6.8% | 1.63 | 4.69 |
| Adam Morgan ('21) | 6 | 59 | 20.5% | 7.1% | 1.56 | 4.77 |
| Mike Mayers ('23) | 5 | 47 | 24.3% | 7.8% | 1.50 | 4.47 |
| Austin Voth ('24) | 6 | 58 | 22.2% | 8.2% | 1.50 | 4.63 |
| Alex Young ('23) | 5 | 52 | 19.5% | 8.6% | 1.61 | 4.43 |
| Eli Morgan ('24) | 4 | 66 | 23.8% | 6.4% | 1.46 | 3.97 |
| Fernando Salas ('18) | 4 | 59 | 22.5% | 6.6% | 1.22 | 4.42 |