Hayden Wesneski

P Houston Astros

Age 29 RHP 6'3" / 210 lbs MLB peak 0.2 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	26	MIX2 levels	35	10	83	3.78	4.05	23.9%	7.4%	0.5	K 23.3% · BB 7.3% · FIP 4.17
2025	27	MLBHOU	6	6	32	4.50	4.69	22.1%	4.6%	0.3
2026	28	MIX4 levels	16	16	81	3.00	3.14	20.5%	7.3%	2.3	K 20.1% · BB 7.5% · FIP 3.31
2027PROJ	29	MLBHOU	9	9	52	4.03	4.16	20.9%	7.0%	0.8
2028PROJ95% MLB	30	MLBHOU	6	6	35	4.23	4.37	20.2%	7.3%	0.4
2029PROJ95% MLB	31	MLBHOU	4	4	25	4.45	4.60	19.4%	7.6%	0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 3.0 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs61

FB Velo36

K%26

Form2.54 ERA (proj 4.03) · K 15.9% (proj 20.9%) · BB 7.1% (proj 7.0%) ▼ last 60d · 28 IP through Oct 27

CompsFabio Castillo (age 28) · Jose Contreras (age 31) · Anthony Bass (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10799vR 91

ERA4.03

FIP4.16

K%20.9%

BB%7.0%

K-BB%13.9%

Proj IP52

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL6060

CMD5555

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3693.5

Whiff%

p3823.6%

p2618.7%

xwOBA vs

p610.301

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	24	130	524	151	36	13	96%	5.2	23.2%	7.2%	15.9%	3.1%	3.25	3.79	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	25	24	130	524	151	36	13	96%	5.2	28.8%	6.9%	21.9%	2.5%	3.25	2.91	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	27	143	589	139	42	13	90%	4.8	21.4%	7.4%	14.0%	2.4%	3.52	3.55	+3.2
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	27	143	589	139	42	13	90%	4.8	23.6%	7.1%	16.5%	2.2%	3.52	3.22	+3.8
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	16	109	458	111	39	22	41%	2.8	23.4%	8.3%	15.0%	5.0%	4.03	4.95	-0.5
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	16	109	458	111	39	22	41%	2.8	24.2%	8.5%	15.7%	4.8%	4.03	4.76	-0.3
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	10	83	351	84	26	13	29%	2.4	23.3%	7.3%	16.0%	3.8%	3.78	4.17	+0.4
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	10	83	351	84	26	13	29%	2.4	23.3%	7.3%	16.0%	3.8%	3.78	4.17	+0.4
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	10	83	351	84	26	13	29%	2.4	23.9%	7.4%	16.5%	3.7%	3.78	4.05	+0.5
2025	27	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	6	6	32	131	29	6	7	100%	5.3	22.1%	4.6%	17.6%	5.5%	4.50	4.83	+0.2
2025	27	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	6	6	32	131	29	6	7	100%	5.3	22.1%	4.6%	17.6%	5.5%	4.50	4.83	+0.2
2025	27	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	6	6	32	131	29	6	7	100%	5.3	22.1%	4.6%	17.6%	5.3%	4.50	4.69	+0.3
2026	28	MIX MLE	4 levels	16	16	81	327	67	24	5	100%	5.1	20.1%	7.5%	12.6%	1.7%	3.00	3.31	+2.1
2026	28	MIX MLE	4 levels	16	16	81	327	67	24	5	100%	5.1	20.1%	7.5%	12.6%	1.7%	3.00	3.31	+2.1
2026	28	MIX RAW	4 levels	16	16	81	327	67	24	5	100%	5.1	20.5%	7.3%	13.1%	1.5%	3.00	3.14	+2.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			85	39	283	1171	258	85	46	46%	3.3	22.0%	7.3%	14.8%	3.9%	3.85	4.29	+0.9
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	HOU	9	9	52	220	46	15	6	100%	5.8	20.9%	7.0%	13.9%	2.8%	4.03	4.16	+0.8
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	HOU	6	6	37	156	31	11	5	100%	6.1	20.2%	7.3%	12.9%	3.0%	4.23	4.37	+0.4
2029	31	MLB MLE	HOU	4	4	26	111	22	8	4	100%	6.5	19.4%	7.6%	11.8%	3.3%	4.45	4.60	+0.2
2028	30	MLB CTX	HOU	6	6	35	148	30	11	5	100%	5.8	20.2%	7.3%	12.9%	3.0%	4.23	4.37	+0.4
2029	31	MLB CTX	HOU	4	4	25	106	21	8	3	100%	6.2	19.4%	7.6%	11.8%	3.3%	4.45	4.60	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		95	49	343	1424	308	104	54	52%	3.6	21.7%	7.3%	14.4%	3.8%	3.93	4.27	+4.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		55	29	200	831	180	61	31	52%	3.6	21.7%	7.3%	14.4%	3.8%	3.93	4.27	+2.7
Career	—	MLE		151	99	579	2380	531	176	80	66%	3.8	22.3%	7.4%	14.9%	3.4%	3.57	4.00	+4.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	34	200	822	183	61	28	66%	3.8	22.3%	7.4%	14.9%	3.4%	3.57	4.00	+2.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 13 IPFIP 2.18 → 2.57 (+0.40)K% 30.9% → 26.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.91%	—	×0.860	26.58%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.45%	—	×0.900	4.91%
HR / BF /BF	1.82%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.18 → 2.57, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAIowa Cubs · 16 IPFIP 2.73 → 2.95 (+0.22)K% 25.0% → 21.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.00%	—	×0.860	21.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.35%	—	×0.900	6.62%
HR / BF /BF	1.47%	÷1.079	×1.100	1.50%

Result: FIP 2.73 → 2.95, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAIowa Cubs · 20 IPFIP 2.78 → 3.26 (+0.48)K% 35.4% → 30.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.44%	—	×0.860	30.48%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.13%	—	×0.900	9.11%
HR / BF /BF	2.53%	÷0.965	×1.100	2.88%

Result: FIP 2.78 → 3.26, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAIowa Cubs · 110 IPFIP 3.31 → 3.72 (+0.41)K% 23.2% → 20.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.19%	—	×0.880	20.41%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.66%	—	×1.050	8.04%
HR / BF /BF	2.19%	÷0.996	×1.100	2.42%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 99).

Result: FIP 3.31 → 3.72, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AASomerset Patriots · 83 IPFIP 3.41 → 4.16 (+0.75)K% 26.7% → 21.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.74%	—	×0.810	21.66%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.40%	—	×1.100	7.03%
HR / BF /BF	3.20%	÷1.053	×1.200	3.64%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 111).

Result: FIP 3.41 → 4.16, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Hudson Valley Renegades · 36 IPFIP 1.81 → 2.82 (+1.01)K% 35.1% → 27.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.07%	—	×0.770	27.01%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.72%	—	×1.150	7.72%
HR / BF /BF	1.49%	÷1.000	×1.250	1.87%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.81 → 2.82, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 11 IPFIP 2.27 → 2.61 (+0.33)K% 26.1% → 23.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.09%	—	×0.880	22.96%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.87%	—	×1.050	11.41%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.149	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.27 → 2.61, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Hayden Wesneski (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.16	20.9%	7.0%	2.8%	—	4.47	19.9%	12.5%	63	+0.31	—	—	—
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	75
Jose Contreras R 2003 · 3.03 FIP	31	SP-	3.03	24.6%	9.9%	1.4%	.255	4.30	17.9%	9.5%	571	+1.27	2.43	1,279	71
Anthony Bass R 2017 · 3.42 FIP	29	SP-	3.42	23.6%	9.1%	2.1%	.356	3.43	20.7%	14.2%	141	+0.01	2.93	647	68
Tiago Da Silva R 2015 · 3.10 FIP	30	SW	3.10	19.6%	4.5%	2.0%	.278	2.38	21.4%	18.5%	98	-0.72	2.21	287	68
Luke Hudson R 2006 · 3.81 FIP	29	SP-	3.81	14.5%	8.4%	1.6%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	235	67
Shawn Haviland R 2015 · 3.95 FIP	29	SP-	3.95	14.6%	6.0%	2.4%	.303	4.67	16.1%	8.8%	169	+0.72	3.69	283	67
Ross Ohlendorf R 2012 · 4.60 FIP	29	SP-	4.60	16.7%	10.3%	2.9%	.337	3.67	20.8%	14.6%	116	-0.93	3.30	617	66
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	66
Bruce Billings R 2015 · 3.09 FIP	29	SP-	3.09	15.6%	5.6%	1.1%	.309	—	—	—	—	—	3.09	121	66
Jorge Martinez R 2016 · 3.53 FIP	31	SP-	3.53	12.9%	5.3%	1.6%	.266	3.71	16.5%	11.5%	154	+0.18	3.53	214	66
Jonathan Pintaro R 2024 · 3.42 FIP	26	SP	3.42	18.9%	9.4%	1.3%	.264	4.07	23.9%	12.1%	153	+0.65	3.42	223	65
Kohei Arihara R 2022 · 4.58 FIP	29	SP-	4.58	16.4%	7.2%	3.5%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.58	135	65
Tim Adleman R 2017 · 5.35 FIP	29	SP-	5.35	20.3%	9.4%	5.1%	.276	4.30	22.8%	15.0%	117	-1.05	3.63	605	65
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2015 · 3.97 FIP	30	SP	3.97	17.4%	7.1%	2.6%	.315	4.94	15.9%	8.7%	305	+0.97	3.97	567	65
Zach Stewart R 2015 · 4.43 FIP	28	SP-	4.43	14.4%	8.3%	2.7%	.322	5.17	11.7%	2.1%	51	+0.74	4.27	194	64
Odrisamer Despaigne R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	29	SW	3.97	15.3%	8.5%	2.0%	.316	3.74	17.1%	8.5%	348	-0.23	3.13	689	64
Mike Wright Jr. R 2019 · 3.76 FIP	29	SW	3.76	19.9%	7.2%	2.6%	.347	4.19	17.6%	7.3%	169	+0.43	3.76	725	64
Aaron Brooks R 2019 · 4.72 FIP	29	SP-	4.72	17.0%	7.1%	3.9%	.281	4.38	15.8%	8.8%	70	-0.34	3.71	879	63
Travis Smith R 2002 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP	5.28	13.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.324	5.71	15.0%	9.0%	51	+0.43	3.67	105	63
Michael Brady R 2016 · 3.02 FIP	29	SP-	3.02	17.6%	3.7%	1.7%	.290	3.73	18.3%	15.0%	140	+0.71	3.02	333	63

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.0	50	21.5%	7.3%	1.41	3.95
Bob Lacey ('77-'84, 2 WAR*)	2.3	75	20.5%*	7.3%*	1.35*	4.11*
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43
Max Leon ('73-'78, 2 WAR*)	1.6	62	18.3%*	7.1%*	1.26*	3.96*
Tom Walker ('72-'77, 1 WAR*)	2.1	83	20.9%*	7.5%*	1.28*	4.32*
Justin Speier ('09)	3.4	56	20.4%	8.0%	1.44	4.11
Tyler Lyons ('20)	1.4	57	24.3%	7.6%	1.27	4.30