Max Alba

P Erie SeaWolves

Age 28 RHP 6'5" / 215 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	A+DET	39	3	57	3.61	3.13	27.5%	3.5%	—	K 21.2% · BB 4.0% · FIP 4.52
2025	26	MIX2 levels	26	20	104	4.66	3.95	20.4%	6.6%	—	K 15.9% · BB 7.4% · FIP 5.05
2026	27	MIX3 levels	24	24	96	6.40	5.09	18.6%	7.0%	—	K 14.7% · BB 8.2% · FIP 6.09
2027PROJ	28	MLBDET	1	0	1	5.47	5.47	14.3%	7.9%	-0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB	29	MLBDET	15	0	16	5.43	5.49	15.0%	8.3%	-0.2
2029PROJ51% MLB	30	MLBDET	20	0	21	5.48	5.58	15.3%	8.7%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control55Command45

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsRamon Delgado (age 29) · Donovan Hand (age 27) · Alfonso Sanchez (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 137129vR 121

ERA5.47

FIP5.47

K%14.3%

BB%7.9%

K-BB%6.4%

Proj IP69

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 69 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5555

CMD4545

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	23	ROK MLE	FCL Tigers	2	0	2	9	3	2	0	0%	0.8	33.3%	22.2%	11.1%	0.0%	10.80	3.10	—
2022	23	ROK RAW	FCL Tigers	2	0	2	9	3	2	0	0%	0.8	33.3%	22.2%	11.1%	0.0%	10.80	3.10	—
2023	24	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	41	0	55	234	65	25	6	0%	1.3	20.6%	12.6%	7.9%	2.7%	4.07	4.47	—
2023	24	A RAW	Lakeland Flying Tigers	41	0	55	234	65	25	6	0%	1.3	27.8%	10.7%	17.1%	2.6%	4.07	3.52	—
2024	25	A+ MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	39	3	57	229	63	8	8	8%	1.5	21.2%	4.0%	17.2%	4.9%	3.61	4.52	—
2024	25	A+ MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	39	3	57	229	63	8	8	8%	1.5	21.2%	4.0%	17.2%	4.9%	3.61	4.52	—
2024	25	A+ RAW	West Michigan Whitecaps	39	3	57	229	63	8	8	8%	1.5	27.5%	3.5%	24.0%	3.5%	3.61	3.13	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	20	104	442	90	29	14	77%	4.0	15.9%	7.4%	8.5%	4.3%	4.66	5.05	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	20	104	442	90	29	14	77%	4.0	15.9%	7.4%	8.5%	4.3%	4.66	5.05	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	20	104	442	90	29	14	77%	4.0	20.4%	6.6%	13.8%	3.2%	4.66	3.95	—
2026	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	24	96	431	80	30	20	100%	4.0	14.7%	8.2%	6.5%	5.8%	6.40	6.09	—
2026	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	24	96	431	80	30	20	100%	4.0	14.7%	8.2%	6.5%	5.8%	6.40	6.09	—
2026	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	24	24	96	431	80	30	20	100%	4.0	18.6%	7.0%	11.6%	4.6%	6.40	5.09	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	DET	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	14.3%	7.9%	6.4%	4.0%	5.47	5.47	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	DET	48	0	51	214	32	18	9	0%	1.1	15.0%	8.3%	6.7%	4.0%	5.43	5.49	-0.5
2029	30	MLB MLE	DET	40	0	42	176	27	15	7	0%	1.0	15.3%	8.7%	6.6%	4.2%	5.48	5.58	-0.5
2028	29	MLB CTX	DET	15	0	16	68	10	6	3	0%	1.1	15.0%	8.3%	6.7%	4.0%	5.43	5.49	-0.2
2029	30	MLB CTX	DET	20	0	21	89	14	8	4	0%	1.1	15.3%	8.7%	6.6%	4.2%	5.48	5.58	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		35	0	37	157	24	13	6	0%	1.1	15.2%	8.5%	6.6%	4.1%	5.46	5.16	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	129	70	32	0%	1.1	15.2%	8.5%	6.6%	4.1%	5.46	5.16	-1.4
Career	—	MLE		132	47	314	1345	233	109	62	36%	2.4	17.3%	8.1%	9.3%	4.6%	4.92	5.18	-1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		84	30	200	856	148	69	39	36%	2.4	17.3%	8.1%	9.3%	4.6%	4.92	5.18	-2.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAErie SeaWolves · 86 IPFIP 5.17 → 6.09 (+0.92)K% 18.2% → 14.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.16%	—	×0.810	14.71%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.42%	—	×1.100	8.16%
HR / BF /BF	4.86%	÷1.000	×1.200	5.83%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.17 → 6.09, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ALakeland Flying Tigers · 6 IPFIP 3.94 → 4.95 (+1.01)K% 16.0% → 11.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.00%	—	×0.740	11.84%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×1.180	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	4.00%	÷1.000	×1.300	5.20%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.94 → 4.95, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+West Michigan Whitecaps · 72 IPFIP 3.74 → 5.09 (+1.35)K% 22.3% → 17.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.30%	—	×0.770	17.17%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.76%	—	×1.150	7.77%
HR / BF /BF	3.04%	÷0.850	×1.250	4.47%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 70).

Result: FIP 3.74 → 5.09, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAErie SeaWolves · 32 IPFIP 4.37 → 4.97 (+0.60)K% 16.4% → 13.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.44%	—	×0.810	13.32%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.16%	—	×1.100	6.78%
HR / BF /BF	3.42%	÷1.056	×1.200	3.89%

Result: FIP 4.37 → 4.97, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+West Michigan Whitecaps · 57 IPFIP 3.14 → 4.52 (+1.38)K% 27.5% → 21.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.51%	—	×0.770	21.18%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.49%	—	×1.150	4.02%
HR / BF /BF	3.49%	÷0.889	×1.250	4.91%

Result: FIP 3.14 → 4.52, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ALakeland Flying Tigers · 55 IPFIP 3.52 → 4.47 (+0.95)K% 27.8% → 20.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.78%	—	×0.740	20.56%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.68%	—	×1.180	12.61%
HR / BF /BF	2.56%	÷1.216	×1.300	2.74%

Result: FIP 3.52 → 4.47, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Max Alba (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.47	14.3%	7.9%	4.0%	—	5.53	15.1%	6.7%	92	+0.06	—	—	—
Ramon Delgado R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	13.8%	5.9%	3.5%	.332	4.31	11.2%	7.2%	74	-0.29	4.31	135	88
Donovan Hand R 2013 · 4.72 FIP	27	SW	4.72	12.9%	7.0%	3.3%	.279	4.30	11.1%	6.8%	97	-0.42	4.30	305	83
Alfonso Sanchez R 2016 · 5.26 FIP	28	SW	5.26	15.9%	7.4%	4.7%	.244	5.55	11.2%	2.3%	115	+0.29	4.51	224	83
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	82
Eddie Bonine R 2009 · 5.60 FIP	28	SW	5.60	13.1%	7.6%	4.8%	.306	4.54	8.6%	2.0%	68	-1.06	4.40	129	81
Rodolfo Aguirre R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	30	SW	4.29	12.4%	6.9%	2.5%	.288	4.81	11.4%	1.3%	125	+0.52	3.39	212	80
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	80
Nelson Figueroa R 2002 · 5.41 FIP	28	SW	5.41	12.4%	7.5%	4.4%	.250	5.52	12.5%	4.6%	64	+0.11	3.71	499	80
Chris Jakubauskas R 2009 · 4.97 FIP	30	SW	4.97	12.1%	6.2%	3.9%	.250	4.42	15.7%	7.8%	72	-0.55	4.42	165	79
Jose Pina R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	29	SW	4.90	16.9%	9.2%	3.8%	.231	3.66	13.6%	6.9%	246	-1.24	3.63	424	79
Francisco Cordova R 2015 · 5.51 FIP	31	SW	5.51	6.4%	4.6%	4.3%	.261	4.59	7.1%	-0.6%	83	-0.92	4.59	115	76
Mike Connolly R 2018 · 5.13 FIP	26	SW	5.13	13.2%	9.4%	3.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	328	75
Jeff Manship R 2013 · 5.11 FIP	28	SW	5.11	12.9%	7.9%	3.8%	.298	3.57	20.0%	11.7%	137	-1.54	2.83	250	75
Cory Lidle R 2000 · 4.32 FIP	28	SW	4.32	14.6%	6.1%	3.1%	.313	4.06	14.2%	8.7%	573	-0.26	3.48	1,318	75
Aldo Montes R 2017 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.4%	8.5%	3.3%	.322	4.69	18.2%	7.6%	75	-0.27	4.69	210	74
Todd Wellemeyer R 2007 · 4.74 FIP	28	SW	4.74	17.0%	10.8%	3.1%	.270	4.86	15.5%	6.4%	373	+0.12	3.35	615	74
Nelson Gonzalez R 2018 · 5.03 FIP	28	SW	5.03	19.2%	8.2%	4.6%	.311	6.22	16.9%	4.6%	74	+1.19	3.42	258	73
Chris Jensen R 2018 · 5.31 FIP	27	SW	5.31	12.0%	10.6%	3.4%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	4.47	488	73
Scarlyn Reyes R 2017 · 4.87 FIP	27	SW	4.87	13.7%	8.4%	3.4%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	4.16	317	73
Grant Judkins R 2024 · 5.13 FIP	26	SW	5.13	16.8%	9.1%	4.2%	.264	5.80	14.9%	5.8%	124	+0.67	5.13	322	72

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	54	14.8%	8.2%	1.57	5.46
Ricky Stone ('07)	1.3	64	15.2%	8.0%	1.55	4.68
Jose Cabrera ('02)	1.4	68	16.2%	7.9%	1.39	4.95
Chuck Hartenstein ('66-'77, -1 WAR*)	1.5	59	13.7%*	7.2%*	1.50*	5.28*
Carlos Almánzar ('05)	1.2	60	16.3%	7.9%	1.32	4.82
Steve Kealey ('68-'73, -1 WAR*)	1.1	54	18.5%*	7.2%*	1.32*	5.26*
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*