Max Alba — OGILVIE

Max Alba P Erie SeaWolves

Age 27 RHP 6'5" / 215 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION92 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA4.99

FIP4.99

K%15.8%

BB%7.4%

K-BB%8.4%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 98 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5555

CMD4545

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	23	ROK MLE	FCL Tigers	2	0	2	9	3	2	0	0%	0.8	33.3%	22.2%	11.1%	0.0%	10.80	3.10	—
2022	23	ROK RAW	FCL Tigers	2	0	2	9	3	2	0	0%	0.8	33.3%	22.2%	11.1%	0.0%	10.80	3.10	—
2023	24	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	41	0	55	234	65	25	6	0%	1.3	20.6%	12.6%	7.9%	2.7%	4.07	4.47	—
2023	24	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	41	0	55	234	65	25	6	0%	1.3	20.6%	12.6%	7.9%	2.7%	4.07	4.47	—
2023	24	A RAW	Lakeland Flying Tigers	41	0	55	234	65	25	6	0%	1.3	27.8%	10.7%	17.1%	2.6%	4.07	3.52	—
2024	25	A+ MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	39	3	57	229	63	8	8	8%	1.5	21.2%	4.0%	17.2%	4.9%	3.61	4.52	—
2024	25	A+ MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	39	3	57	229	63	8	8	8%	1.5	21.2%	4.0%	17.2%	4.9%	3.61	4.52	—
2024	25	A+ RAW	West Michigan Whitecaps	39	3	57	229	63	8	8	8%	1.5	27.5%	3.5%	24.0%	3.5%	3.61	3.13	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	20	104	442	90	29	14	77%	4.0	15.9%	7.4%	8.5%	4.3%	4.66	5.05	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	20	104	442	90	29	14	77%	4.0	15.9%	7.4%	8.5%	4.3%	4.66	5.05	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	20	104	442	90	29	14	77%	4.0	20.4%	6.6%	13.8%	3.2%	4.66	3.95	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	23	23	92	410	76	28	17	100%	4.0	14.7%	8.0%	6.6%	5.2%	5.99	5.73	—
YTD	27	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	23	23	92	410	76	28	17	100%	4.0	14.7%	8.0%	6.6%	5.2%	5.99	5.73	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	A RAW	DET	2	2	6	25	4	0	1	100%	3.1	16.0%	0.0%	16.0%	4.0%	2.84	3.94	—
2026	27	A+ RAW	DET	1	1	3	15	5	1	0	100%	3.0	33.3%	6.7%	26.7%	0.0%	6.00	1.13	—
2026	27	AA RAW	DET	20	20	82	370	67	27	16	100%	4.1	18.1%	7.3%	10.8%	4.3%	6.23	4.87	—
ROS	27	MLB MLE	DET	1	1	6	27	4	2	1	100%	6.4	15.8%	7.4%	8.4%	3.5%	4.99	4.99	-0.0
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	DET	—	—	98	437	80	30	18	—	—	18.4%	6.9%	11.5%	4.1%	5.92	5.68	-0.9
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	DET	11	11	68	287	47	22	10	100%	6.2	16.4%	7.8%	8.7%	3.5%	4.97	5.00	-0.1
2028	29	MLB MLE	DET	11	11	65	274	46	22	10	100%	5.9	16.7%	8.1%	8.6%	3.6%	5.02	5.08	-0.1
2027	28	MLB CTX	DET	4	4	26	110	18	9	4	100%	6.5	16.4%	7.8%	8.7%	3.5%	4.97	5.00	-0.0
2028	29	MLB CTX	DET	6	6	36	152	25	12	6	100%	6.0	16.7%	8.1%	8.6%	3.6%	5.02	5.08	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	10	62	261	43	21	9	100%	6.2	16.6%	8.0%	8.7%	3.6%	5.00	4.67	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	139	68	29	100%	6.0	16.6%	8.0%	8.7%	3.6%	5.00	4.67	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		131	46	310	1324	230	107	58	35%	2.4	17.4%	8.0%	9.3%	4.4%	4.79	5.05	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		84	30	200	853	148	69	37	35%	2.4	17.4%	8.0%	9.3%	4.4%	4.79	5.05	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Max Alba (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.99	15.8%	7.4%	3.5%	—	5.04	16.6%	8.7%	133	+0.05	—	—	—
Aaron Northcraft R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	26	SW	4.19	16.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.309	3.32	24.1%	13.4%	34	-0.87	3.32	252	84
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	83
Alfonso Sanchez R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.5%	9.1%	3.2%	.346	4.85	14.0%	5.3%	138	-0.11	4.51	224	83
Ramon Delgado R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	13.8%	5.9%	3.5%	.332	4.31	11.2%	7.2%	74	-0.29	4.31	135	83
Roberto Gómez R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	27	SW	3.95	18.4%	8.9%	2.3%	.315	5.25	13.8%	4.9%	18	+1.30	3.95	115	81
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	78
Mike Connolly R 2018 · 5.13 FIP	26	SW	5.13	13.2%	9.4%	3.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	328	78
Bryce Morrow R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	12.8%	7.9%	2.4%	.316	5.44	10.1%	-0.2%	50	+1.13	4.31	125	78
Aldo Montes R 2017 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.4%	8.5%	3.3%	.322	4.69	18.2%	7.6%	75	-0.27	4.69	210	78
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	78
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2017 · 4.61 FIP	27	SW	4.61	18.2%	10.5%	3.1%	.304	4.70	15.8%	3.2%	11	+0.09	3.22	221	77
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	77
Kurt Heyer R 2016 · 3.99 FIP	25	SW	3.99	14.1%	6.7%	2.2%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	3.75	178	77
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	76
Donovan Hand R 2015 · 4.30 FIP	29	SW	4.30	11.1%	4.3%	2.9%	.305	4.56	12.5%	5.7%	140	+0.26	4.30	237	76
Andres Santiago R 2017 · 4.16 FIP	27	SW	4.16	16.3%	9.1%	2.3%	.384	5.26	13.1%	3.2%	159	+1.10	3.76	291	76
Jacob Turner R 2018 · 4.48 FIP	27	SP-	4.48	14.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	340	75
Bud Norris R 2015 · 4.68 FIP	30	SW	4.68	18.8%	8.2%	3.9%	.327	3.78	24.2%	15.5%	233	-0.90	3.51	316	75
Tristan Stevens R 2023 · 4.14 FIP	25	SW	4.14	17.3%	8.2%	2.7%	.411	3.68	15.0%	7.7%	91	-0.46	3.68	126	75
Luis Romero R 2021 · 6.01 FIP	27	SW	6.01	13.8%	10.1%	5.1%	.293	5.70	11.6%	-1.5%	68	-0.31	4.00	293	75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	68	16.3%	7.8%	1.37	4.99
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Austin Pruitt ('23)	1.5	61	16.9%	5.6%	1.22	4.45
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79