Cory Lewis

P Wichita Wind Surge

Age 26 RHP 6'5" / 220 lbs AA peak 0.2 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX4 levels	19	17	79	2.51	3.44	27.9%	12.1%	—	K 23.3% · BB 13.5% · FIP 4.80
2025	24	AAAMIN	24	11	73	7.27	5.83	23.8%	18.6%	—	K 20.4% · BB 16.7% · FIP 5.20
2026	25	MIX3 levels	30	24	103	4.30	4.25	26.3%	11.8%	—	K 21.3% · BB 12.3% · FIP 5.14
2027PROJ	26	MLBMIN	1	1	2	5.58	5.58	21.2%	16.2%	-0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	27	MLBMIN	6	6	35	5.47	5.48	21.2%	15.4%	-0.0
2029PROJ60% MLB	28	MLBMIN	8	8	48	5.44	5.47	21.2%	15.0%	-0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Control20Command35

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 1.5, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 91%

CompsNick Pasquale (age 26) · Jacob Meador (age 23) · Will Schomberg (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 139131vR 123

ERA5.58

FIP5.58

K%21.2%

BB%16.2%

K-BB%5.0%

Proj IP123

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 123 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL2020

CMD3535

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	101	412	118	33	6	100%	4.6	21.7%	9.3%	12.3%	1.8%	2.49	3.43	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	22	101	412	118	33	6	100%	4.6	28.6%	8.0%	20.6%	1.5%	2.49	2.52	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	19	17	79	330	92	40	7	89%	4.2	23.3%	13.5%	9.9%	3.6%	2.51	4.80	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	19	17	79	330	92	40	7	89%	4.2	23.3%	13.5%	9.9%	3.6%	2.51	4.80	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	4 levels	19	17	79	330	92	40	7	89%	4.2	27.9%	12.1%	15.8%	2.1%	2.51	3.44	—
2025	24	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	24	11	73	366	87	68	13	46%	3.0	20.4%	16.7%	3.7%	3.1%	7.27	5.20	—
2025	24	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	24	11	73	366	87	68	13	46%	3.0	20.4%	16.7%	3.7%	3.1%	7.27	5.20	—
2025	24	AAA RAW	St. Paul Saints	24	11	73	366	87	68	13	46%	3.0	23.8%	18.6%	5.2%	3.6%	7.27	5.83	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	24	103	448	118	53	15	80%	3.4	21.3%	12.3%	9.0%	4.2%	4.30	5.14	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	24	103	448	118	53	15	80%	3.4	21.3%	12.3%	9.0%	4.2%	4.30	5.14	—
2026	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	30	24	103	448	118	53	15	80%	3.4	26.3%	11.8%	14.5%	3.3%	4.30	4.25	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	MIN	1	1	2	8	2	1	0	100%	2.0	21.2%	16.2%	5.0%	3.4%	5.58	5.58	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	MIN	16	16	94	396	84	61	13	100%	5.9	21.2%	15.4%	5.9%	3.4%	5.47	5.48	-0.1
2029	28	MLB MLE	MIN	14	14	81	343	73	51	12	100%	5.8	21.2%	15.0%	6.2%	3.4%	5.44	5.47	-0.1
2030	29	MLB MLE	MIN	12	12	74	310	65	46	11	100%	6.1	21.0%	14.8%	6.2%	3.6%	5.48	5.54	-0.1
2031	30	MLB MLE	MIN	11	11	66	279	58	42	10	100%	6.0	20.7%	14.9%	5.7%	3.8%	5.59	5.69	-0.2
2028	27	MLB CTX	MIN	6	6	35	148	31	23	5	100%	5.8	21.2%	15.4%	5.9%	3.4%	5.47	5.48	-0.0
2029	28	MLB CTX	MIN	8	8	48	203	43	30	7	100%	6.0	21.2%	15.0%	6.2%	3.4%	5.44	5.47	-0.0
2030	29	MLB CTX	MIN	9	9	52	220	46	33	8	100%	5.8	21.0%	14.8%	6.2%	3.6%	5.48	5.54	-0.1
2031	30	MLB CTX	MIN	9	9	52	220	45	33	8	100%	5.8	20.7%	14.9%	5.7%	3.8%	5.59	5.69	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		31	31	187	791	166	119	28	100%	6.0	21.0%	15.0%	6.0%	3.5%	5.50	5.17	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	177	127	30	100%	6.0	21.0%	15.0%	6.0%	3.5%	5.50	5.17	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		95	74	356	1556	336	199	49	78%	3.7	21.6%	12.8%	8.8%	3.2%	3.99	4.63	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		53	42	200	874	189	112	28	78%	3.7	21.6%	12.8%	8.8%	3.2%	3.99	4.63	-0.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAWichita Wind Surge · 94 IPFIP 4.20 → 5.14 (+0.94)K% 26.3% → 21.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.30%	—	×0.810	21.31%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.17%	—	×1.100	12.28%
HR / BF /BF	3.47%	÷1.000	×1.200	4.17%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.20 → 5.14, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ROKFCL Twins · 9 IPFIP 3.84 → 5.67 (+1.83)K% 30.0% → 20.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.00%	—	×0.680	20.40%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.00%	—	×1.250	18.75%
HR / BF /BF	2.50%	÷1.000	×1.400	3.50%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.84 → 5.67, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAASt. Paul Saints · 73 IPFIP 5.40 → 5.20 (−0.19)K% 23.8% → 20.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.77%	—	×0.860	20.44%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	18.58%	—	×0.900	16.72%
HR / BF /BF	3.55%	÷1.253	×1.100	3.12%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 151).

Result: FIP 5.40 → 5.20, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAWichita Wind Surge · 66 IPFIP 3.60 → 4.80 (+1.20)K% 28.8% → 23.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.78%	—	×0.810	23.31%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.23%	—	×1.100	13.45%
HR / BF /BF	2.52%	÷0.845	×1.200	3.58%

Result: FIP 3.60 → 4.80, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAASt. Paul Saints · 5 IPFIP 4.02 → 3.96 (−0.06)K% 8.7% → 7.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	8.70%	—	×0.860	7.48%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.04%	—	×0.900	11.74%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.039	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 4.02 → 3.96, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels · 62 IPFIP 2.54 → 3.24 (+0.70)K% 25.3% → 19.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.30%	—	×0.770	19.48%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.23%	—	×1.150	8.31%
HR / BF /BF	1.20%	÷1.134	×1.250	1.33%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 127).

Result: FIP 2.54 → 3.24, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 39 IPFIP 2.43 → 3.71 (+1.29)K% 33.7% → 25.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.74%	—	×0.740	24.97%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.20%	—	×1.180	10.86%
HR / BF /BF	1.84%	÷0.976	×1.300	2.45%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 95).

Result: FIP 2.43 → 3.71, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cory Lewis (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.58	21.2%	16.2%	3.4%	—	5.49	21.1%	6.1%	249	-0.09	—	—	—
Nick Pasquale R 2017 · 4.74 FIP	26	SP-	4.74	16.8%	12.7%	2.6%	.306	3.80	17.9%	6.3%	50	-0.94	3.19	308	79
Jacob Meador R 2024 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP-	5.34	15.6%	14.0%	3.2%	.301	6.73	14.7%	-6.6%	50	+1.39	5.34	139	74
Will Schomberg R 2024 · 4.85 FIP	23	SP	4.85	21.4%	15.6%	2.9%	.266	3.86	23.3%	11.7%	90	-0.99	3.86	206	74
Reid Johnston R 2023 · 5.00 FIP	24	SP-	5.00	19.5%	13.9%	3.3%	.256	5.86	17.2%	2.4%	31	+0.86	3.74	234	74
Nic Swanson R 2024 · 4.91 FIP	25	SP	4.91	19.3%	11.8%	3.5%	.286	5.43	19.9%	6.5%	132	+0.52	4.29	438	74
Deylen Miley R 2023 · 5.34 FIP	25	SP-	5.34	22.3%	17.5%	3.5%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	2.07	185	74
Elijah Dale R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP	4.55	16.7%	13.6%	2.1%	.239	6.48	18.4%	-1.6%	31	+1.93	4.55	140	73
Derek True R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.95	17.6%	5.9%	73	+0.05	4.50	170	73
Jake Bockenstedt R 2024 · 6.05 FIP	24	SP	6.05	17.0%	13.1%	5.0%	.322	4.35	16.8%	5.4%	126	-1.70	3.74	218	73
Osvaldo Bido R 2022 · 5.11 FIP	26	SP-	5.11	21.2%	13.3%	3.9%	.281	4.28	21.2%	12.1%	322	-0.83	3.67	732	73
Luis Santos R 2017 · 4.76 FIP	26	SP-	4.76	19.7%	9.7%	3.8%	.262	3.93	22.1%	13.0%	127	-0.83	3.53	472	72
M.D. Johnson R 2023 · 5.64 FIP	26	SP	5.64	16.4%	12.7%	4.2%	.254	3.52	14.6%	4.7%	67	-2.12	3.52	395	72
Cody Sedlock R 2021 · 5.05 FIP	26	SP-	5.05	19.9%	10.9%	4.1%	.301	4.21	20.1%	7.1%	80	-0.84	4.21	378	72
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	71
Hayden Merda R 2023 · 5.17 FIP	23	SP	5.17	16.1%	15.3%	2.7%	.325	4.59	25.5%	10.9%	108	-0.58	4.20	203	71
Justin Armbruester R 2024 · 5.73 FIP	25	SP	5.73	20.2%	11.1%	5.3%	.289	1.49	27.5%	21.9%	15	-4.24	1.49	373	71
J.P. Massey R 2024 · 4.72 FIP	24	SP	4.72	16.1%	14.2%	2.1%	.283	5.71	15.5%	-1.3%	46	+0.99	4.72	195	71
Keyvius Sampson R 2017 · 5.08 FIP	26	SP-	5.08	19.6%	16.4%	2.8%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.10	316	69
Joe Nathan R 2000 · 5.19 FIP	25	SP-	5.19	14.3%	13.8%	2.8%	.262	3.30	26.3%	16.8%	79	-1.89	1.25	929	69
Bubba Derby R 2019 · 5.42 FIP	25	SP-	5.42	18.0%	10.1%	4.7%	.287	5.14	19.4%	11.0%	71	-0.28	3.68	550	69

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.2	88	21.1%	15.4%	1.34	5.52
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Touki Toussaint ('25)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.24	5.42
Paul Spoljaric ('00)	1.4	69	22.1%	12.9%	1.33	5.52
Bob Gibson ('83-'87, -0 WAR*)	1.3	67	20.4%*	14.0%*	1.14*	4.52*
Tim Conroy ('78-'87, -3 WAR*)	2.3	78	20.8%*	13.6%*	1.12*	5.23*
Lowell Palmer ('69-'74, -4 WAR*)	1.6	79	21.9%*	13.3%*	1.59*	6.09*