Trevor Harrison
P
Bowling Green Hot Rods
+1.0
WAR
Age 20
RHP
6'4" / 225 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 3.1 · 2031
ERA4.50
FIP4.50
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%20.9%
BB%10.9%
K-BB%10.0%
IP107
trajectory · 10 yrs
3.1peak
2031
K†5060
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 18 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | 17 | 16 | 73 | 296 | 87 | 26 | 5 | 21.0% | 10.6% | 2.5% | 3.34 | 4.04 | +0.8 |
| 2025 | 19 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | 22 | 22 | 107 | 440 | 100 | 49 | 3 | 17.0% | 13.1% | 0.9% | 2.78 | 3.79 | +1.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 20 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | 2 | 2 | 5 | 25 | 7 | 6 | 0 | — | — | — | 5.40 | — | — |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | TB | 19 | 19 | 107 | 452 | 95 | 49 | 12 | 20.9% | 10.9% | 2.6% | 4.50 | 4.50 | +1.0 |
| 2026 Total | 20 | MLB | TB | — | — | 112 | 477 | 102 | 55 | 12 | 21.3% | 11.6% | 2.4% | 4.54 | 4.30 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | TB | 20 | 20 | 112 | 475 | 102 | 47 | 12 | 21.4% | 10.0% | 2.5% | 4.39 | 4.33 | +1.2 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB | TB | 25 | 25 | 140 | 591 | 132 | 54 | 15 | 22.4% | 9.2% | 2.5% | 4.23 | 4.13 | +1.9 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB | TB | 30 | 30 | 165 | 698 | 161 | 61 | 17 | 23.1% | 8.7% | 2.5% | 4.10 | 4.00 | +2.4 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB | TB | 34 | 34 | 185 | 782 | 185 | 66 | 19 | 23.6% | 8.4% | 2.5% | 3.99 | 3.91 | +2.9 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB | TB | 34 | 34 | 188 | 792 | 190 | 66 | 20 | 24.0% | 8.3% | 2.5% | 3.91 | 3.86 | +3.1 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB | TB | 34 | 34 | 188 | 792 | 192 | 65 | 20 | 24.2% | 8.2% | 2.5% | 3.86 | 3.83 | +3.1 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB | TB | 34 | 34 | 186 | 786 | 190 | 65 | 19 | 24.2% | 8.3% | 2.5% | 3.85 | 3.84 | +3.1 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB | TB | 33 | 33 | 183 | 774 | 187 | 65 | 19 | 24.2% | 8.3% | 2.5% | 3.86 | 3.87 | +3.0 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB | TB | 33 | 33 | 179 | 757 | 182 | 64 | 19 | 24.0% | 8.4% | 2.6% | 3.89 | 3.92 | +2.8 |
| 2036 | 30 | MLB | TB | 32 | 32 | 174 | 734 | 175 | 62 | 19 | 23.8% | 8.5% | 2.6% | 3.94 | 3.98 | +2.6 |
| 2037 | 31 | MLB | TB | 31 | 31 | 168 | 708 | 167 | 61 | 19 | 23.6% | 8.6% | 2.7% | 4.01 | 4.05 | +2.4 |
| 2038 | 32 | MLB | TB | 29 | 29 | 161 | 680 | 159 | 60 | 19 | 23.3% | 8.8% | 2.8% | 4.09 | 4.14 | +2.1 |
| 2039 | 33 | MLB | TB | 28 | 28 | 154 | 650 | 150 | 58 | 19 | 23.0% | 9.0% | 2.9% | 4.18 | 4.24 | +1.8 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 41 | 40 | 185 | 761 | 144 | 95 | 11 | 18.9% | 12.4% | 1.5% | 3.07 | 3.89 | +3.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 44 | 43 | 200 | 824 | 156 | 103 | 12 | 18.9% | 12.4% | 1.5% | 3.07 | 3.89 | +3.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Trevor Harrison (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.50 | 20.9% | 10.9% | 2.6% | — | 4.13 | 22.4% | 13.2% | 418 | -0.37 | — | — | — |
| Michael Forret R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 20 | SP- | 3.99 | 21.8% | 11.8% | 2.2% | .302 | 2.67 | 25.1% | 16.6% | 74 | -1.32 | 2.67 | 174 | 97 |
| Levi Kelly R 2026 · 3.41 FIP | 20 | SP- | 3.41 | 22.9% | 11.3% | 1.5% | .285 | 6.22 | 19.4% | -7.9% | 25 | +2.81 | 3.41 | 125 | 91 |
| Victor Lizarraga R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.19 | 20.3% | 11.4% | 2.5% | .278 | 5.17 | 16.8% | 2.6% | 91 | +0.98 | 3.82 | 406 | 90 |
| Trevor Martin R 2028 · 4.24 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.24 | 21.3% | 10.6% | 2.9% | .297 | 4.28 | 20.2% | 11.6% | 172 | +0.04 | 4.19 | 282 | 90 |
| Jackson Nezuh R 2028 · 3.90 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.90 | 22.5% | 11.2% | 2.3% | .290 | 4.40 | 18.6% | 9.7% | 72 | +0.50 | 3.90 | 193 | 90 |
| Josh Grosz R 2027 · 4.83 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.83 | 19.2% | 11.7% | 3.4% | .271 | 4.75 | 19.4% | 7.6% | 125 | -0.08 | 4.75 | 243 | 88 |
| Griffin Canning R 2028 · 3.70 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.70 | 21.8% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .312 | 4.13 | 23.9% | 15.3% | 225 | +0.43 | 3.65 | 705 | 88 |
| Josh Bostick R 2028 · 4.71 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.71 | 19.3% | 11.2% | 3.3% | .304 | 5.41 | 21.7% | 12.6% | 119 | +0.70 | 4.71 | 226 | 87 |
| Will Watson R 2028 · 4.13 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.13 | 21.8% | 13.4% | 2.1% | .275 | 4.39 | 15.6% | 5.0% | 11 | +0.26 | 4.13 | 132 | 87 |
| Logan Hofmann R 2027 · 4.51 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.51 | 22.1% | 11.3% | 3.4% | .239 | 6.75 | 9.7% | -12.0% | 47 | +2.24 | 4.51 | 129 | 87 |
| Ty Cummings R 2028 · 4.30 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.30 | 19.0% | 10.5% | 2.7% | .329 | 5.00 | 14.2% | 5.9% | 116 | +0.70 | 4.30 | 233 | 87 |
| Carlos Rodriguez R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 20 | SP- | 3.63 | 22.6% | 10.9% | 1.9% | .266 | 4.19 | 21.8% | 10.3% | 353 | +0.56 | 3.63 | 471 | 87 |
| Nick Sinacola R 2028 · 4.43 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.43 | 19.3% | 10.4% | 3.0% | .335 | 4.06 | 18.2% | 10.0% | 254 | -0.37 | 3.55 | 357 | 87 |
| Jack Wenninger R 2028 · 4.25 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.25 | 20.9% | 9.3% | 3.2% | .309 | 3.90 | 21.4% | 13.1% | 136 | -0.35 | 3.90 | 251 | 87 |
| Micah Ottenbreit R 2027 · 4.31 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.31 | 17.9% | 11.8% | 2.2% | .305 | 3.04 | 14.7% | 10.3% | 24 | -1.27 | 3.04 | 118 | 87 |
| Aaron Davenport R 2028 · 4.86 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.86 | 20.0% | 13.2% | 3.2% | .280 | 5.01 | 16.9% | 5.2% | 391 | +0.15 | 4.06 | 498 | 86 |
| Kyle Bradish R 2028 · 4.55 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.55 | 20.8% | 13.7% | 2.7% | .309 | 3.87 | 24.1% | 14.7% | 238 | -0.68 | 2.16 | 615 | 86 |
| David Festa R 2028 · 3.66 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.66 | 19.9% | 9.5% | 1.9% | .275 | 3.74 | 26.6% | 17.0% | 302 | +0.08 | 3.66 | 405 | 86 |
| Austin Cates R 2028 · 3.95 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.95 | 19.7% | 9.0% | 2.5% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.95 | 110 | 86 |
| Mason Hickman R 2028 · 4.73 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.73 | 20.2% | 10.2% | 3.7% | .288 | 5.45 | 24.0% | 10.8% | 181 | +0.72 | 4.73 | 300 | 86 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +2.4 | $21M | +$20M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +2.9 | $26M | +$25M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +3.1 | $29M | +$28M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $6M | +3.1 | $30M | +$23M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $10M | +3.1 | $31M | +$20M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $14M | +3.0 | $30M | +$16M |
| Totals | $34M | $166M | +$133M | ||