Trevor Harrison

P Bowling Green Hot Rods

Age 21 RHP 6'4" / 225 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.9 · 2030

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

OGV OFP40OGV rank#184ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	18	MIX2 levels	17	16	73	3.34	2.67	29.4%	8.8%	—	K 21.0% · BB 10.6% · FIP 4.03
2025	19	MIX2 levels	22	22	107	2.78	2.97	22.7%	11.1%	—	K 17.0% · BB 13.1% · FIP 3.79
2026	20	A+TB	23	23	98	4.98	4.75	29.3%	10.6%	—	K 22.6% · BB 12.2% · FIP 6.20
2027PROJ	21	MLBTB	1	1	1	5.23	5.23	21.8%	12.8%	0.0
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBTB	12	12	63	4.95	4.85	22.7%	11.4%	0.4
2029PROJ73% MLB	23	MLBTB	17	17	93	4.74	4.64	23.4%	10.4%	0.8

Next 3 projected WAR 1.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Arb-1$2M+2

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.5 / P90 12, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 78%

CompsAaron Davenport (age 22) · Patrick Reilly (age 22) · Josh Grosz (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133124vR 116

ERA5.23

FIP5.23

K%21.8%

BB%12.8%

K-BB%9.0%

Proj IP127

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 127 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$47M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.0	$6M	+$5M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.0	$5M	+$5M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.0	$5M	+$5M
2034	Arb-1	$2M	+0.8	$2M	+$1M
2035	Arb-2	$2M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.5M
2036	Arb-3	$2M	+0.4	$0.8M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$7M		$21M	+$16M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	16	73	296	87	26	5	94%	4.3	21.0%	10.6%	10.4%	2.5%	3.34	4.03	—
2024	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	16	73	296	87	26	5	94%	4.3	21.0%	10.6%	10.4%	2.5%	3.34	4.03	—
2024	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	16	73	296	87	26	5	94%	4.3	29.4%	8.8%	20.6%	1.7%	3.34	2.67	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	107	440	100	49	3	100%	4.9	17.0%	13.1%	3.9%	0.9%	2.78	3.79	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	107	440	100	49	3	100%	4.9	17.0%	13.1%	3.9%	0.9%	2.78	3.79	—
2025	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	22	107	440	100	49	3	100%	4.9	22.7%	11.1%	11.6%	0.7%	2.78	2.97	—
2026	20	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	23	23	98	416	122	44	21	100%	4.2	22.6%	12.2%	10.4%	6.3%	4.98	6.20	—
2026	20	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	23	23	98	416	122	44	21	100%	4.2	22.6%	12.2%	10.4%	6.3%	4.98	6.20	—
2026	20	A+ RAW	Bowling Green Hot Rods	23	23	98	416	122	44	21	100%	4.2	29.3%	10.6%	18.8%	5.0%	4.98	4.75	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	TB	1	1	1	4	1	1	0	100%	1.0	21.8%	12.8%	9.0%	3.6%	5.23	5.23	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	TB	25	25	127	536	122	61	19	100%	5.1	22.7%	11.4%	11.4%	3.5%	5.00	4.90	+0.7
2029	23	MLB MLE	TB	24	24	127	536	125	56	18	100%	5.3	23.4%	10.4%	13.0%	3.4%	4.79	4.69	+1.0
2030	24	MLB MLE	TB	23	23	127	536	128	53	18	100%	5.5	23.9%	9.9%	14.0%	3.3%	4.64	4.55	+1.3
2031	25	MLB MLE	TB	17	17	100	422	102	41	14	100%	5.9	24.2%	9.6%	14.6%	3.3%	4.54	4.47	+1.1
2032	26	MLB MLE	TB	17	17	100	423	103	40	14	100%	5.9	24.4%	9.6%	14.8%	3.3%	4.49	4.45	+1.1
2033	27	MLB MLE	TB	16	16	98	413	101	40	14	100%	6.1	24.4%	9.6%	14.8%	3.4%	4.49	4.49	+1.0
2034	28	MLB MLE	TB	16	16	93	394	96	39	14	100%	5.8	24.3%	9.8%	14.5%	3.5%	4.54	4.57	+0.9
2035	29	MLB MLE	TB	14	14	87	367	88	37	13	100%	6.2	24.0%	10.0%	14.0%	3.6%	4.64	4.70	+0.7
2036	30	MLB MLE	TB	13	13	79	333	79	34	13	100%	6.1	23.7%	10.3%	13.4%	3.8%	4.78	4.88	+0.5
2037	31	MLB MLE	TB	12	12	70	298	69	32	12	100%	5.9	23.3%	10.7%	12.6%	4.0%	4.96	5.08	+0.3
2028	22	MLB CTX	TB	12	12	63	266	60	30	9	100%	5.2	22.7%	11.4%	11.4%	3.4%	4.95	4.85	+0.4
2029	23	MLB CTX	TB	17	17	93	393	92	41	13	100%	5.5	23.4%	10.4%	13.0%	3.3%	4.74	4.64	+0.8
2030	24	MLB CTX	TB	19	19	105	443	106	44	14	100%	5.5	23.9%	9.9%	14.0%	3.2%	4.59	4.50	+1.0
2031	25	MLB CTX	TB	15	15	88	372	90	36	12	100%	5.9	24.2%	9.6%	14.6%	3.2%	4.49	4.42	+1.0
2032	26	MLB CTX	TB	15	15	91	384	94	37	12	100%	6.1	24.4%	9.6%	14.8%	3.2%	4.44	4.40	+1.0
2033	27	MLB CTX	TB	15	15	91	384	94	37	13	100%	6.1	24.4%	9.6%	14.8%	3.3%	4.44	4.44	+1.0
2034	28	MLB CTX	TB	14	14	87	367	89	36	12	100%	6.2	24.3%	9.8%	14.5%	3.4%	4.49	4.52	+0.8
2035	29	MLB CTX	TB	14	14	83	350	84	35	12	100%	5.9	24.0%	10.0%	14.0%	3.5%	4.59	4.65	+0.7
2036	30	MLB CTX	TB	12	12	75	317	75	33	12	100%	6.2	23.7%	10.3%	13.4%	3.7%	4.72	4.82	+0.4
2037	31	MLB CTX	TB	11	11	67	283	66	30	11	100%	6.1	23.3%	10.7%	12.6%	3.9%	4.90	5.02	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		146	146	843	3559	850	359	121	100%	5.8	23.9%	10.1%	13.8%	3.4%	4.62	4.22	+11.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	202	85	29	100%	5.8	23.9%	10.1%	13.8%	3.4%	4.62	4.22	+2.8
Career	—	MLE		62	61	277	1152	231	139	37	98%	4.5	20.0%	12.1%	7.9%	3.2%	3.70	4.72	+8.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	44	200	831	166	100	27	98%	4.5	20.0%	12.1%	7.9%	3.2%	3.70	4.72	+1.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods · 98 IPFIP 4.73 → 6.20 (+1.46)K% 29.3% → 22.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.33%	—	×0.770	22.58%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.58%	—	×1.150	12.16%
HR / BF /BF	5.05%	÷1.000	×1.250	6.31%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.73 → 6.20, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ACharleston RiverDogs · 83 IPFIP 2.73 → 3.49 (+0.76)K% 22.4% → 16.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.39%	—	×0.740	16.57%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.75%	—	×1.180	12.68%
HR / BF /BF	0.30%	÷1.159	×1.300	0.33%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 132).

Result: FIP 2.73 → 3.49, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods · 24 IPFIP 3.70 → 4.76 (+1.06)K% 23.8% → 18.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.81%	—	×0.770	18.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.38%	—	×1.150	14.24%
HR / BF /BF	1.90%	÷0.930	×1.250	2.56%

Result: FIP 3.70 → 4.76, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ACharleston RiverDogs · 40 IPFIP 2.69 → 3.97 (+1.28)K% 29.3% → 21.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.27%	—	×0.740	21.66%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.98%	—	×1.180	12.95%
HR / BF /BF	1.22%	÷0.824	×1.300	1.92%

Result: FIP 2.69 → 3.97, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKFCL Rays · 33 IPFIP 2.62 → 4.11 (+1.49)K% 29.5% → 20.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.55%	—	×0.680	20.09%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.06%	—	×1.250	7.58%
HR / BF /BF	2.27%	÷1.002	×1.400	3.17%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.62 → 4.11, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Trevor Harrison (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.6%	—	4.71	23.3%	12.8%	381	-0.52	—	—	—
Aaron Davenport R 2022 · 4.81 FIP	22	SP	4.81	20.0%	13.2%	3.2%	.280	4.94	16.9%	5.6%	391	+0.13	4.04	498	89
Patrick Reilly R 2024 · 4.96 FIP	22	SP	4.96	23.2%	13.6%	3.8%	.242	5.00	27.8%	20.2%	40	+0.04	4.96	159	89
Josh Grosz R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	21	SP	4.83	19.2%	11.7%	3.4%	.271	5.07	21.5%	8.5%	183	+0.24	4.75	301	87
Blade Tidwell R 2023 · 4.84 FIP	22	SP	4.84	24.5%	14.7%	3.5%	.284	4.37	20.4%	10.5%	363	-0.47	3.89	479	86
Josh Bostick R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP	4.65	19.3%	11.2%	3.2%	.304	5.40	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.75	4.65	226	86
Will Sanders R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	22	SP	4.95	19.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.297	4.11	20.1%	12.5%	173	-0.84	3.92	266	86
Trevor Martin R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	22	SP	4.25	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.297	4.19	20.3%	11.0%	243	-0.06	3.94	353	86
Ty Cummings R 2024 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	19.0%	10.5%	2.8%	.329	5.36	14.4%	6.0%	178	+1.02	4.34	295	85
Jamison Hill R 2022 · 4.83 FIP	23	SP	4.83	18.4%	11.6%	3.3%	.280	5.02	16.1%	3.0%	202	+0.19	4.72	326	85
Juaron Watts-Brown R 2024 · 5.25 FIP	22	SP	5.25	21.8%	15.4%	3.7%	.294	4.92	22.8%	10.9%	221	-0.33	4.16	324	84
Jesse Foppert R 2003 · 4.80 FIP	23	SP	4.80	20.2%	13.0%	3.2%	.274	7.32	11.3%	-13.2%	10	+2.52	4.80	121	84
Ben Kudrna R 2024 · 5.08 FIP	21	SP	5.08	19.1%	12.2%	3.7%	.302	4.25	18.7%	7.6%	105	-0.83	4.22	402	84
CJ Van Eyk R 2021 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	21.8%	12.7%	3.5%	.302	4.64	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.15	4.18	457	84
Mason Hickman R 2021 · 4.69 FIP	22	SP	4.69	20.2%	10.2%	3.7%	.288	5.36	23.9%	11.1%	181	+0.67	4.69	300	84
Bryce Osmond R 2023 · 5.56 FIP	22	SP	5.56	18.0%	12.4%	4.4%	.294	7.13	16.7%	3.8%	80	+1.57	5.56	177	84
Will Schomberg R 2024 · 4.85 FIP	23	SP	4.85	21.4%	15.6%	2.9%	.266	3.86	23.3%	11.7%	90	-0.99	3.86	206	83
Barrett Kent R 2024 · 5.40 FIP	19	SP	5.40	18.0%	14.0%	3.7%	.313	4.52	13.6%	-2.1%	27	-0.88	4.52	140	83
Dinelson Lamet R 2015 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	20.1%	11.8%	2.7%	.272	3.69	24.2%	13.1%	293	-0.67	2.11	778	83
Paxton Schultz R 2021 · 4.77 FIP	23	SP	4.77	19.7%	11.6%	3.4%	.353	4.69	20.3%	8.9%	305	-0.08	3.83	543	83
Max Bain R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	23	SP	5.21	20.5%	15.2%	3.5%	.291	6.70	16.7%	-3.9%	81	+1.49	5.21	174	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.7	103	23.6%	10.5%	1.35	4.75
Tom Griffin ('69-'82, 1 WAR*)	7.5	107	22.6%*	11.4%*	1.21*	4.93*
Vince Velasquez ('15-'23, 2 WAR*)	3.8	85	21.9%*	9.2%*	1.37*	4.99*
Balor Moore ('70-'80, 1 WAR*)	3.6	120	23.5%*	11.4%*	1.35*	4.89*
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Héctor Santiago ('21)	4.7	105	20.7%	10.6%	1.38	4.12
Wayne Twitchell ('70-'79, 4 WAR*)	5.3	133	24.2%*	11.3%*	1.16*	4.56*