Trevor Harrison — OGILVIE

Trevor Harrison P Bowling Green Hot Rods

Age 20 RHP 6'4" / 225 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.7 · 2031

2026 ROS PROJECTION54 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130121vR 112

ERA4.92

FIP4.92

K%19.1%

BB%12.9%

K-BB%6.2%

ROS IP65

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 119 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF6050

CTRL4545

CMD—45

K†4555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.2	$7M	+$7M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.4	$8M	+$7M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.4	$7M	+$7M
2033	Arb-1	$5M	+1.3	$6M	+$4M
2034	Arb-2	$7M	+1.1	$5M	+$2M
2035	Arb-3	$9M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$15M		$35M	+$26M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2024	18	MIX	2 levels	17	16	73	296	87	26	5	94%	4.3	21.0%	10.6%	10.4%	2.8%	3.34	4.19	—
2024	18	MIX	2 levels	17	16	73	296	87	26	5	94%	4.3	29.4%	8.8%	20.6%	1.7%	3.34	2.67	—
2025	19	MIX	2 levels	22	22	107	440	100	49	3	100%	4.9	17.0%	13.1%	3.9%	0.9%	2.78	3.80	—
2025	19	MIX	2 levels	22	22	107	440	100	49	3	100%	4.9	22.7%	11.1%	11.6%	0.7%	2.78	2.97	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	20	A+	Bowling Green Hot Rods	14	14	54	233	58	24	12	100%	3.9	19.2%	11.8%	7.3%	6.4%	5.13	6.52	-1.2
ROS	20	MLB	TB	12	12	65	274	52	35	7	100%	5.4	19.1%	12.9%	6.2%	2.6%	4.92	4.92	-0.2
ROS	20	MLB	TB	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.1%	12.9%	6.2%	2.5%	4.88	4.88	—
2026 TOT	20	MLB	TB	—	—	119	507	110	59	19	—	—	21.8%	11.7%	10.1%	3.8%	5.02	5.65	-0.3
2026 FULL	20	MLB	TB	—	—	0	1	0	0	0	—	—	19.1%	12.9%	6.2%	2.5%	4.88	4.50	+0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	21	MLB	TB	27	27	133	563	114	65	14	100%	4.9	20.2%	11.6%	8.7%	2.6%	4.73	4.65	+1.2
2028	22	MLB	TB	27	27	140	591	128	62	15	100%	5.2	21.6%	10.5%	11.0%	2.5%	4.51	4.39	+1.7
2029	23	MLB	TB	27	27	145	613	137	61	15	100%	5.4	22.4%	9.9%	12.5%	2.5%	4.33	4.22	+2.0
2030	24	MLB	TB	27	27	149	628	144	60	16	100%	5.5	22.9%	9.5%	13.4%	2.5%	4.21	4.12	+2.2
2031	25	MLB	TB	26	26	151	636	148	59	16	100%	5.8	23.3%	9.3%	14.0%	2.5%	4.12	4.06	+2.4
2032	26	MLB	TB	25	25	151	636	150	59	16	100%	6.0	23.5%	9.3%	14.2%	2.5%	4.07	4.03	+2.4
2033	27	MLB	TB	25	25	148	627	147	59	16	100%	5.9	23.5%	9.3%	14.1%	2.5%	4.07	4.07	+2.3
2034	28	MLB	TB	24	24	144	608	142	58	16	100%	6.0	23.4%	9.5%	13.9%	2.6%	4.12	4.16	+2.1
2035	29	MLB	TB	23	23	137	580	134	56	16	100%	6.0	23.1%	9.7%	13.4%	2.8%	4.22	4.29	+1.8
2036	30	MLB	TB	22	22	129	546	124	55	16	100%	5.9	22.8%	10.0%	12.7%	3.0%	4.37	4.47	+1.4
2037	31	MLB	TB	20	20	120	509	114	53	16	100%	6.0	22.4%	10.4%	12.0%	3.2%	4.55	4.67	+1.0
2038	32	MLB	TB	19	19	112	471	103	51	16	100%	5.9	21.9%	10.8%	11.1%	3.5%	4.76	4.89	+0.7
2027	21	MLB	TB	14	14	66	279	56	32	7	100%	4.7	20.2%	11.6%	8.7%	2.5%	4.69	4.61	+0.1
2028	22	MLB	TB	20	20	102	431	93	45	11	100%	5.1	21.6%	10.5%	11.0%	2.5%	4.47	4.35	+1.3
2029	23	MLB	TB	23	23	123	519	116	51	13	100%	5.3	22.4%	9.9%	12.5%	2.4%	4.29	4.18	+1.8
2030	24	MLB	TB	24	24	133	562	129	53	14	100%	5.5	22.9%	9.5%	13.4%	2.4%	4.17	4.08	+2.0
2031	25	MLB	TB	24	24	138	583	136	54	14	100%	5.8	23.3%	9.3%	14.0%	2.4%	4.08	4.02	+2.2
2032	26	MLB	TB	24	24	141	595	140	55	14	100%	5.9	23.5%	9.3%	14.2%	2.4%	4.03	3.99	+2.3
2033	27	MLB	TB	24	24	141	595	140	56	15	100%	5.9	23.5%	9.3%	14.1%	2.5%	4.03	4.03	+2.3
2034	28	MLB	TB	23	23	137	578	135	55	15	100%	6.0	23.4%	9.5%	13.9%	2.6%	4.08	4.12	+2.1
2035	29	MLB	TB	22	22	131	553	128	54	15	100%	6.0	23.1%	9.7%	13.4%	2.7%	4.18	4.25	+1.8
2036	30	MLB	TB	20	20	123	519	118	52	15	100%	6.2	22.8%	10.0%	12.7%	2.9%	4.32	4.42	+1.4
2037	31	MLB	TB	19	19	114	481	108	50	15	100%	6.0	22.4%	10.4%	12.0%	3.1%	4.50	4.62	+1.0
2038	32	MLB	TB	18	18	106	448	98	48	15	100%	5.9	21.9%	10.8%	11.1%	3.4%	4.71	4.84	+0.7
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			253	253	1454	6138	1395	606	162	100%	5.7	22.7%	9.9%	12.9%	2.6%	4.26	3.88	+25.9
/ 200 IP	—			35	35	200	844	192	83	22	100%	5.8	22.7%	9.9%	12.9%	2.6%	4.26	3.88	+3.6
Career	—			53	52	234	969	181	116	27	98%	4.4	18.7%	12.0%	6.7%	2.8%	3.50	4.57	+2.3
/ 200 IP	—			45	44	200	828	155	99	23	98%	4.4	18.7%	12.0%	6.7%	2.8%	3.50	4.57	+1.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Trevor Harrison (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.92	19.1%	12.9%	2.6%	—	4.41	21.4%	10.8%	418	-0.51	—	—	—
Aaron Davenport R 2028 · 4.63 FIP	22	SP	4.63	20.0%	13.2%	2.8%	.280	4.97	16.9%	5.2%	391	+0.34	4.09	498	88
Trevor Clifton R 2026 · 4.19 FIP	20	SP	4.19	16.5%	12.0%	1.8%	.276	3.89	17.3%	7.1%	345	-0.30	2.95	588	87
Josh Grosz R 2027 · 4.85 FIP	21	SP	4.85	19.2%	11.7%	3.4%	.271	4.61	21.1%	8.8%	156	-0.24	4.00	274	85
Ty Cummings R 2028 · 4.14 FIP	22	SP	4.14	19.0%	10.5%	2.4%	.329	5.29	14.4%	5.8%	150	+1.15	4.14	267	85
Victor Lizarraga R 2026 · 4.25 FIP	20	SP	4.25	20.3%	11.4%	2.6%	.278	5.40	15.4%	0.3%	159	+1.15	3.89	474	85
Josh Bostick R 2028 · 4.73 FIP	22	SP	4.73	19.3%	11.2%	3.4%	.304	5.46	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.73	4.73	226	84
Garrett Cave R 2028 · 4.92 FIP	22	SP	4.92	16.4%	14.9%	2.4%	.301	4.97	17.8%	-8.8%	40	+0.05	4.92	156	84
Micah Ottenbreit R 2027 · 4.22 FIP	21	SP	4.22	17.9%	11.8%	2.1%	.305	3.02	14.7%	10.3%	24	-1.20	3.02	118	84
Adam Hill R 2028 · 4.96 FIP	22	SP	4.96	15.6%	12.6%	2.9%	.297	6.36	19.6%	8.9%	91	+1.40	4.96	213	84
Zack Bird R 2027 · 4.72 FIP	21	SP	4.72	18.1%	15.6%	2.1%	.281	5.19	10.8%	-7.7%	48	+0.47	4.72	149	84
Isaiah Lowe R 2027 · 3.78 FIP	21	SP	3.78	18.5%	12.0%	1.3%	.303	6.00	13.0%	-1.6%	143	+2.22	3.78	249	83
Brett Wichrowski R 2027 · 4.00 FIP	21	SP	4.00	17.0%	11.2%	1.7%	.267	4.96	15.7%	4.7%	161	+0.96	3.95	250	83
Will Watson R 2028 · 4.19 FIP	22	SP-	4.19	21.8%	13.4%	2.2%	.275	5.43	15.2%	2.1%	20	+1.24	4.19	141	83
Alex Royalty R 2028 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	14.9%	11.6%	1.9%	.302	4.74	17.7%	8.6%	40	+0.40	4.34	151	83
Adam Kloffenstein R 2026 · 5.31 FIP	20	SP	5.31	17.7%	15.1%	3.3%	.299	4.82	19.2%	7.9%	329	-0.49	4.36	584	83
Casey Steward R 2028 · 4.02 FIP	22	SP	4.02	17.4%	13.3%	1.3%	.270	4.79	15.1%	2.7%	88	+0.77	4.02	191	82
Trenton Denholm R 2028 · 4.22 FIP	22	SP	4.22	18.3%	10.9%	2.3%	.368	4.05	16.5%	10.2%	352	-0.17	3.33	527	82
Trevor Martin R 2028 · 4.15 FIP	22	SP	4.15	21.3%	10.6%	2.7%	.297	4.41	19.9%	10.7%	211	+0.26	4.15	321	82
Patrick Reilly R 2028 · 4.75 FIP	22	SP	4.75	23.2%	13.6%	3.4%	.242	—	—	—	—	—	4.75	119	82
Emilio Vargas R 2026 · 4.89 FIP	20	SP	4.89	17.4%	12.2%	3.1%	.287	4.19	19.8%	11.3%	229	-0.70	2.78	669	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	13	137	22.4%	10.2%	1.04	4.36
Kyle Gibson ('24)	10	164	19.6%	8.3%	1.14	4.46
Jon Gray ('24)	10	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Lance Lynn ('24)	9	154	23.9%	8.1%	1.20	3.86
Zach Davies ('23)	9	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Wade Miley ('23)	8	136	18.2%	8.5%	1.07	4.20
Rich Hill ('23)	9	104	25.0%	8.0%	1.12	3.65