Trevor Harrison — OGILVIE

Trevor Harrison P Bowling Green Hot Rods

Age 20 RHP 6'4" / 225 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 2.0 · 2031

2026 ROS PROJECTION98 act + 12 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.90

FIP4.90

K%19.1%

BB%12.9%

K-BB%6.2%

ROS IP12

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 109 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$52M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF6050

CTRL4545

CMD—45

K†4555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.2	$7M	+$7M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.4	$8M	+$7M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.5	$8M	+$7M
2033	Arb-1	$5M	+1.4	$7M	+$4M
2034	Arb-2	$7M	+1.2	$5M	+$2M
2035	Arb-3	$9M	+1.0	$4M	+$0.4M
Totals		$24M		$38M	+$28M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	16	73	296	87	26	5	94%	4.3	21.0%	10.6%	10.4%	2.5%	3.34	4.03	—
2024	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	16	73	296	87	26	5	94%	4.3	21.0%	10.6%	10.4%	2.5%	3.34	4.03	—
2024	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	16	73	296	87	26	5	94%	4.3	29.4%	8.8%	20.6%	1.7%	3.34	2.67	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	107	440	100	49	3	100%	4.9	17.0%	13.1%	3.9%	0.9%	2.78	3.79	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	107	440	100	49	3	100%	4.9	17.0%	13.1%	3.9%	0.9%	2.78	3.79	—
2025	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	22	107	440	100	49	3	100%	4.9	22.7%	11.1%	11.6%	0.7%	2.78	2.97	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	23	23	98	416	122	44	21	100%	4.2	22.6%	12.2%	10.4%	6.3%	4.98	6.20	—
YTD	20	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	23	23	98	416	122	44	21	100%	4.2	22.6%	12.2%	10.4%	6.3%	4.98	6.20	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	A+ RAW	TB	23	23	98	416	122	44	21	100%	4.2	29.3%	10.6%	18.8%	5.0%	4.98	4.73	—
ROS	20	MLB MLE	TB	3	3	12	49	9	6	1	100%	3.8	19.1%	12.9%	6.2%	2.6%	4.90	4.90	0.0
2026 TOT	20	MLB MLE	TB	—	—	109	465	131	50	22	—	—	28.3%	10.8%	17.4%	4.8%	4.97	6.06	-1.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	TB	27	27	133	563	114	65	14	100%	4.9	20.2%	11.6%	8.6%	2.5%	4.72	4.64	+0.4
2028	22	MLB MLE	TB	27	27	140	591	128	62	15	100%	5.2	21.6%	10.5%	11.0%	2.5%	4.50	4.38	+0.9
2029	23	MLB MLE	TB	27	27	145	613	137	61	15	100%	5.4	22.4%	9.9%	12.5%	2.5%	4.32	4.21	+1.2
2030	24	MLB MLE	TB	27	27	149	628	144	60	16	100%	5.5	22.9%	9.5%	13.4%	2.5%	4.19	4.11	+1.4
2031	25	MLB MLE	TB	26	26	151	636	148	59	16	100%	5.8	23.3%	9.3%	14.0%	2.5%	4.10	4.05	+1.5
2032	26	MLB MLE	TB	25	25	151	636	150	59	16	100%	6.0	23.5%	9.3%	14.2%	2.5%	4.05	4.02	+1.6
2033	27	MLB MLE	TB	25	25	148	627	147	59	16	100%	5.9	23.5%	9.3%	14.1%	2.5%	4.06	4.06	+1.5
2034	28	MLB MLE	TB	24	24	144	608	142	58	16	100%	6.0	23.4%	9.5%	13.9%	2.6%	4.11	4.14	+1.3
2035	29	MLB MLE	TB	23	23	137	580	134	56	16	100%	6.0	23.1%	9.7%	13.4%	2.8%	4.21	4.28	+1.0
2036	30	MLB MLE	TB	22	22	129	546	124	55	16	100%	5.9	22.8%	10.0%	12.7%	3.0%	4.36	4.45	+0.7
2037	31	MLB MLE	TB	20	20	120	509	114	53	16	100%	6.0	22.4%	10.4%	12.0%	3.2%	4.54	4.66	+0.3
2038	32	MLB MLE	TB	19	19	112	471	103	51	16	100%	5.9	21.9%	10.8%	11.1%	3.4%	4.74	4.88	+0.0
2039	33	MLB MLE	TB	17	17	102	432	93	49	16	100%	6.0	21.4%	11.2%	10.2%	3.7%	4.97	5.13	-0.3
2027	21	MLB CTX	TB	14	14	66	279	56	32	7	100%	4.7	20.2%	11.6%	8.6%	2.6%	4.76	4.68	+0.2
2028	22	MLB CTX	TB	20	20	102	431	93	45	11	100%	5.1	21.6%	10.5%	11.0%	2.6%	4.54	4.42	+0.6
2029	23	MLB CTX	TB	23	23	123	519	116	51	13	100%	5.3	22.4%	9.9%	12.5%	2.6%	4.36	4.25	+1.0
2030	24	MLB CTX	TB	24	24	133	562	129	53	14	100%	5.5	22.9%	9.5%	13.4%	2.6%	4.23	4.15	+1.2
2031	25	MLB CTX	TB	24	24	138	583	136	54	15	100%	5.8	23.3%	9.3%	14.0%	2.5%	4.14	4.09	+1.4
2032	26	MLB CTX	TB	24	24	141	595	140	55	15	100%	5.9	23.5%	9.3%	14.2%	2.5%	4.09	4.06	+1.5
2033	27	MLB CTX	TB	24	24	141	595	140	56	15	100%	5.9	23.5%	9.3%	14.1%	2.6%	4.10	4.10	+1.4
2034	28	MLB CTX	TB	23	23	137	578	135	55	16	100%	6.0	23.4%	9.5%	13.9%	2.7%	4.15	4.18	+1.2
2035	29	MLB CTX	TB	22	22	131	553	128	54	16	100%	6.0	23.1%	9.7%	13.4%	2.8%	4.26	4.33	+1.0
2036	30	MLB CTX	TB	20	20	123	519	118	52	16	100%	6.2	22.8%	10.0%	12.7%	3.1%	4.41	4.50	+0.6
2037	31	MLB CTX	TB	19	19	114	481	108	50	16	100%	6.0	22.4%	10.4%	12.0%	3.3%	4.59	4.71	+0.3
2038	32	MLB CTX	TB	18	18	106	448	98	48	16	100%	5.9	21.9%	10.8%	11.1%	3.5%	4.80	4.94	+0.0
2039	33	MLB CTX	TB	16	16	97	410	88	46	16	100%	6.1	21.4%	11.2%	10.2%	3.8%	5.03	5.19	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		269	269	1551	6547	1483	652	186	100%	5.8	22.7%	10.0%	12.7%	2.8%	4.38	4.01	+16.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	191	84	24	100%	5.8	22.7%	10.0%	12.7%	2.8%	4.38	4.01	+2.1
Career	—	MLE		62	61	277	1152	231	139	37	98%	4.5	20.0%	12.1%	7.9%	3.2%	3.70	4.72	+11.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	44	200	831	166	100	27	98%	4.5	20.0%	12.1%	7.9%	3.2%	3.70	4.72	+1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Trevor Harrison (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.90	19.1%	12.9%	2.6%	—	4.40	21.4%	10.8%	418	-0.50	—	—	—
Trevor Clifton R 2015 · 4.25 FIP	20	SP	4.25	16.5%	12.0%	1.9%	.276	3.82	17.3%	7.1%	345	-0.43	3.03	588	88
Aaron Davenport R 2022 · 4.81 FIP	22	SP	4.81	20.0%	13.2%	3.2%	.280	4.95	16.7%	5.5%	391	+0.14	4.04	498	88
Garrett Cave R 2018 · 4.99 FIP	22	SP	4.99	16.4%	14.9%	2.5%	.301	4.97	17.8%	-8.8%	40	-0.02	4.97	156	84
Adam Hill R 2019 · 5.00 FIP	22	SP	5.00	15.6%	12.6%	3.0%	.297	6.06	19.6%	8.9%	91	+1.06	5.00	213	84
Zack Bird R 2015 · 4.59 FIP	21	SP	4.59	18.1%	15.6%	1.9%	.281	5.37	10.8%	-7.7%	48	+0.78	4.59	149	84
Karson Milbrandt R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	19	SP	4.37	16.5%	13.7%	1.7%	.330	4.48	20.2%	5.8%	282	+0.11	3.62	377	84
Jamison Hill R 2022 · 4.83 FIP	23	SP	4.83	18.4%	11.6%	3.3%	.280	5.02	16.1%	3.0%	202	+0.19	4.72	326	84
Adam Kloffenstein R 2021 · 5.13 FIP	20	SP	5.13	17.7%	15.1%	2.9%	.299	4.77	18.7%	8.1%	329	-0.36	4.28	630	83
Alex Royalty R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP	4.33	14.9%	11.6%	1.8%	.302	4.50	17.7%	8.6%	40	+0.17	4.33	151	83
Emilio Vargas R 2017 · 4.70 FIP	20	SP	4.70	17.4%	12.2%	2.8%	.287	4.15	19.8%	11.3%	229	-0.55	2.78	669	83
Trent Baker R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	23	SP	4.05	19.3%	10.7%	2.2%	.315	4.07	17.9%	9.5%	296	+0.02	3.88	490	82
Trenton Denholm R 2022 · 4.24 FIP	22	SP	4.24	18.3%	10.9%	2.4%	.368	4.07	16.5%	10.2%	352	-0.17	3.37	572	82
Jose Almonte R 2016 · 4.11 FIP	20	SP	4.11	17.0%	9.1%	2.4%	.293	4.01	20.3%	8.0%	139	-0.10	4.01	279	82
Jordan Sheffield R 2017 · 5.07 FIP	22	SP	5.07	16.8%	13.8%	3.0%	.320	5.60	22.6%	4.7%	89	+0.53	3.90	248	82
Trevor Martin R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	22	SP	4.25	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.297	4.25	19.8%	10.6%	240	+0.00	4.16	350	82
Michael Morales R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	20	SP	4.25	18.0%	10.9%	2.4%	.301	4.51	16.5%	6.9%	317	+0.26	4.03	539	82
Austin Brice R 2015 · 4.61 FIP	23	SP	4.61	18.5%	13.7%	2.4%	.295	3.72	19.0%	12.0%	222	-0.89	3.42	542	82
Tanner Houck R 2018 · 4.95 FIP	22	SP	4.95	16.5%	13.3%	2.8%	.294	3.10	24.3%	14.8%	215	-1.85	2.27	733	82
Shelby Lackey R 2019 · 4.45 FIP	22	SP	4.45	18.2%	10.0%	2.9%	.323	3.98	20.6%	5.7%	65	-0.47	2.92	175	81
Dinelson Lamet R 2015 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	20.1%	11.8%	2.7%	.272	3.69	24.2%	13.1%	293	-0.67	2.11	778	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	9.4	135	22.3%	10.2%	1.05	4.38
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88