Barrett Kent — OGILVIE

Barrett Kent P Inland Empire 66ers

Age 21 RHP 6'4" / 215 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.4 · 2030

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 11 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 138129vR 121

ERA5.50

FIP5.50

K%17.9%

BB%15.0%

K-BB%2.9%

ROS IP11

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 11 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$10M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4550

CTRL3040

CMD3045

K†4055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2032	Arb-1	$3M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-2	$5M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-3	$5M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$8M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	3	1	9	36	10	4	0	33%	2.9	27.8%	11.1%	16.7%	0.0%	0.00	2.16	—
2023	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	3	1	9	36	10	4	0	33%	2.9	27.8%	11.1%	16.7%	0.0%	0.00	2.16	—
2023	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	3	1	9	36	10	4	0	33%	2.9	27.8%	11.1%	16.7%	0.0%	0.00	2.18	—
2024	19	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	26	26	113	515	125	61	13	100%	4.3	18.0%	14.0%	4.0%	3.7%	6.21	5.40	—
2024	19	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	26	26	113	515	125	61	13	100%	4.3	18.0%	14.0%	4.0%	3.7%	6.21	5.40	—
2024	19	A RAW	Inland Empire 66ers	26	26	113	515	125	61	13	100%	4.3	24.3%	11.8%	12.4%	2.5%	6.21	4.00	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	9	35	153	31	21	1	90%	3.5	13.6%	15.7%	-2.2%	1.0%	2.04	4.52	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	9	35	153	31	21	1	90%	3.5	13.6%	15.7%	-2.2%	1.0%	2.04	4.52	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	9	35	153	31	21	1	90%	3.5	20.3%	13.7%	6.5%	0.7%	2.04	3.50	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	21	MLB	SEA	2	2	11	46	8	7	1	100%	5.5	17.9%	15.0%	2.9%	3.0%	5.50	5.50	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	SEA	27	27	140	590	117	77	17	100%	5.2	19.8%	13.0%	6.9%	2.9%	5.18	5.05	-0.2
2028	23	MLB MLE	SEA	27	27	145	612	129	72	18	100%	5.4	21.1%	11.7%	9.3%	2.9%	4.91	4.77	+0.2
2029	24	MLB MLE	SEA	27	27	148	627	137	69	18	100%	5.5	21.8%	10.9%	10.8%	2.9%	4.71	4.59	+0.5
2030	25	MLB MLE	SEA	26	26	150	635	141	66	18	100%	5.8	22.2%	10.5%	11.7%	2.8%	4.58	4.50	+0.7
2031	26	MLB MLE	SEA	25	25	150	635	142	66	18	100%	6.0	22.4%	10.4%	11.9%	2.8%	4.52	4.47	+0.8
2032	27	MLB MLE	SEA	25	25	148	625	140	66	18	100%	5.9	22.4%	10.5%	11.8%	2.9%	4.52	4.51	+0.7
2033	28	MLB MLE	SEA	24	24	144	607	135	65	18	100%	6.0	22.2%	10.7%	11.6%	3.0%	4.57	4.60	+0.5
2034	29	MLB MLE	SEA	23	23	137	579	127	63	18	100%	6.0	22.0%	10.9%	11.1%	3.1%	4.66	4.73	+0.3
2035	30	MLB MLE	SEA	22	22	129	545	118	61	18	100%	5.9	21.6%	11.2%	10.5%	3.3%	4.81	4.91	-0.0
2036	31	MLB MLE	SEA	20	20	120	508	108	59	18	100%	6.0	21.2%	11.5%	9.7%	3.6%	4.99	5.11	-0.3
2027	22	MLB CTX	SEA	14	14	69	291	58	38	8	100%	4.9	19.8%	13.0%	6.9%	2.8%	5.14	5.01	-0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	SEA	20	20	106	448	94	52	13	100%	5.3	21.1%	11.7%	9.3%	2.8%	4.87	4.73	+0.2
2029	24	MLB CTX	SEA	22	22	123	519	113	57	14	100%	5.6	21.8%	10.9%	10.8%	2.8%	4.67	4.55	+0.4
2030	25	MLB CTX	SEA	23	23	133	562	124	59	16	100%	5.8	22.2%	10.5%	11.7%	2.8%	4.54	4.46	+0.6
2031	26	MLB CTX	SEA	23	23	137	578	129	60	16	100%	6.0	22.4%	10.4%	11.9%	2.8%	4.48	4.43	+0.7
2032	27	MLB CTX	SEA	23	23	137	578	129	61	16	100%	6.0	22.4%	10.5%	11.8%	2.8%	4.48	4.47	+0.6
2033	28	MLB CTX	SEA	22	22	134	566	126	60	17	100%	6.1	22.2%	10.7%	11.6%	2.9%	4.53	4.56	+0.5
2034	29	MLB CTX	SEA	22	22	130	549	121	60	17	100%	5.9	22.0%	10.9%	11.1%	3.1%	4.62	4.69	+0.3
2035	30	MLB CTX	SEA	20	20	123	519	112	58	17	100%	6.2	21.6%	11.2%	10.5%	3.3%	4.76	4.86	-0.0
2036	31	MLB CTX	SEA	19	19	114	481	102	56	17	100%	6.0	21.2%	11.5%	9.7%	3.5%	4.94	5.06	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		207	207	1206	5094	1110	561	150	100%	5.8	21.8%	11.0%	10.8%	3.0%	4.67	4.28	+8.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	184	93	25	100%	5.8	21.8%	11.0%	10.8%	3.0%	4.67	4.28	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		39	36	157	704	123	100	21	92%	4.0	17.5%	14.2%	3.3%	2.9%	4.93	5.04	+3.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	46	200	897	157	127	26	92%	4.0	17.5%	14.2%	3.3%	2.9%	4.93	5.04	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Barrett Kent (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.50	17.9%	15.0%	3.0%	—	4.80	20.9%	9.1%	433	-0.70	—	—	—
Garrett Cave R 2018 · 4.99 FIP	22	SP	4.99	16.4%	14.9%	2.5%	.301	4.97	17.8%	-8.8%	40	-0.02	4.97	156	89
Adam Hill R 2019 · 5.00 FIP	22	SP	5.00	15.6%	12.6%	3.0%	.297	6.06	19.6%	8.9%	91	+1.06	5.00	213	85
Zack Bird R 2015 · 4.59 FIP	21	SP	4.59	18.1%	15.6%	1.9%	.281	5.37	10.8%	-7.7%	48	+0.78	4.59	149	84
José Leclerc R 2015 · 5.02 FIP	21	SP	5.02	16.8%	17.0%	2.1%	.304	3.15	30.0%	15.1%	184	-1.87	1.48	527	84
Jordan Sheffield R 2017 · 5.07 FIP	22	SP	5.07	16.8%	13.8%	3.0%	.320	5.60	22.6%	4.7%	89	+0.53	3.90	248	84
Aaron Davenport R 2022 · 4.81 FIP	22	SP	4.81	20.0%	13.2%	3.2%	.280	4.95	16.7%	5.5%	391	+0.14	4.04	498	83
Max Bain R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	23	SP	5.21	20.5%	15.2%	3.5%	.291	6.70	16.7%	-3.9%	81	+1.49	5.21	174	82
Carlos Hernandez R 2016 · 4.32 FIP	22	SP	4.32	17.4%	15.7%	1.3%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	123	82
Chris McElvain R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.8%	11.6%	2.8%	.275	5.24	15.8%	4.7%	198	+0.48	4.07	294	81
Alex Royalty R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP	4.33	14.9%	11.6%	1.8%	.302	4.50	17.7%	8.6%	40	+0.17	4.33	151	81
Jake Madden R 2023 · 5.46 FIP	21	SP	5.46	15.9%	15.2%	3.2%	.299	4.57	14.1%	-1.1%	44	-0.89	4.57	123	81
Michael YaSenka R 2021 · 5.98 FIP	23	SP	5.98	18.1%	15.0%	4.6%	.288	5.95	18.8%	6.1%	58	-0.03	5.95	154	81
Hayden Merda R 2023 · 5.17 FIP	23	SP	5.17	16.1%	15.3%	2.7%	.325	4.41	25.9%	11.8%	106	-0.76	3.84	202	81
Jacob Watters R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	22	SP	4.87	18.3%	17.1%	2.1%	.319	4.38	17.0%	5.1%	81	-0.49	3.85	165	81
Chad Dallas R 2022 · 5.87 FIP	22	SP	5.87	16.4%	14.5%	4.2%	.282	4.71	19.8%	10.2%	184	-1.16	3.47	340	81
Bryce Osmond R 2023 · 5.56 FIP	22	SP	5.56	18.0%	12.4%	4.4%	.294	7.13	16.7%	3.8%	80	+1.57	5.56	177	80
Jamison Hill R 2022 · 4.83 FIP	23	SP	4.83	18.4%	11.6%	3.3%	.280	5.02	16.1%	3.0%	202	+0.19	4.72	326	80
Karson Milbrandt R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	19	SP	4.37	16.5%	13.7%	1.7%	.330	4.48	20.2%	5.8%	282	+0.11	3.62	377	80
Kyle Bradish R 2019 · 4.56 FIP	22	SP-	4.56	20.8%	13.7%	2.7%	.309	3.84	24.1%	14.7%	238	-0.72	2.20	750	80
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7.7	140	21.4%	11.4%	1.17	4.80
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88