Chris McElvain
P
New Hampshire Fisher Cats
+0.1
WAR
Age 25
RHP
6'0" / 240 lbs
AA
peak 0.4 · 2027
ERA4.61
FIP4.61
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%19.7%
BB%9.6%
K-BB%10.1%
IP68
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2027
STUF3535
CTRL5050
CMD4040
K†4045
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 22 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | 23 | 19 | 96 | 413 | 87 | 41 | 9 | 15.8% | 11.6% | 2.8% | 3.75 | 4.78 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ | Vancouver Canadians | 11 | 11 | 49 | 219 | 54 | 21 | 4 | 19.0% | 11.0% | 2.1% | 4.56 | 4.06 | +0.5 |
| 2025 | 24 | A+ | Vancouver Canadians | 21 | 21 | 79 | 351 | 72 | 29 | 6 | 15.2% | 9.6% | 2.6% | 4.42 | 4.44 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | 2 | 2 | 8 | 35 | 6 | 8 | 1 | — | — | — | 5.62 | — | — |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | TOR | 12 | 12 | 68 | 287 | 51 | 30 | 8 | 17.9% | 10.4% | 2.9% | 4.86 | 4.86 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 25 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 76 | 322 | 57 | 38 | 9 | 17.8% | 11.8% | 2.9% | 4.94 | 4.35 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | TOR | 12 | 12 | 68 | 287 | 54 | 29 | 8 | 18.7% | 10.2% | 2.9% | 4.79 | 4.78 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | TOR | 12 | 12 | 68 | 285 | 54 | 29 | 8 | 19.1% | 10.2% | 2.9% | 4.76 | 4.76 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | TOR | 12 | 12 | 66 | 281 | 54 | 29 | 8 | 19.2% | 10.2% | 2.9% | 4.75 | 4.76 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | TOR | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 53 | 28 | 8 | 19.2% | 10.2% | 3.0% | 4.77 | 4.80 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | TOR | 11 | 11 | 63 | 266 | 51 | 28 | 8 | 19.0% | 10.3% | 3.0% | 4.82 | 4.86 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | TOR | 11 | 11 | 61 | 257 | 48 | 27 | 8 | 18.8% | 10.5% | 3.1% | 4.89 | 4.93 | +0.0 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | TOR | 58 | — | 58 | 247 | 46 | 26 | 8 | 18.5% | 10.6% | 3.2% | 4.97 | 5.02 | -0.0 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | TOR | 56 | — | 56 | 236 | 43 | 25 | 8 | 18.2% | 10.8% | 3.3% | 5.06 | 5.12 | -0.1 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | TOR | 53 | — | 53 | 224 | 40 | 25 | 8 | 17.8% | 11.0% | 3.4% | 5.16 | 5.23 | -0.2 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | TOR | 50 | — | 50 | 211 | 37 | 24 | 7 | 17.4% | 11.2% | 3.5% | 5.27 | 5.35 | -0.2 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | TOR | 47 | — | 47 | 198 | 34 | 23 | 7 | 17.0% | 11.5% | 3.6% | 5.40 | 5.48 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 57 | 53 | 233 | 1018 | 166 | 113 | 26 | 16.3% | 11.1% | 2.6% | 4.22 | 4.56 | +2.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 49 | 46 | 200 | 875 | 143 | 97 | 22 | 16.3% | 11.1% | 2.6% | 4.22 | 4.56 | +1.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Chris McElvain (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.86 | 17.9% | 10.4% | 2.9% | — | 4.77 | 19.0% | 8.8% | 202 | -0.09 | — | — | — |
| David Griffin R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.42 | 19.2% | 11.9% | 2.6% | .279 | 5.32 | 15.6% | 5.5% | 168 | +0.90 | 4.42 | 239 | 94 |
| David Goforth R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.06 | 17.4% | 9.8% | 2.2% | .287 | 4.58 | 14.1% | 3.6% | 184 | +0.52 | 4.06 | 256 | 92 |
| Danny Kirwin R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.19 | 16.8% | 9.3% | 2.4% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | 135 | 92 |
| Shohei Tomioka R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.99 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 2.5% | .311 | 4.41 | 17.3% | 3.8% | 141 | +0.42 | 3.65 | 255 | 92 |
| Dylan Burns R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.07 | 17.1% | 10.8% | 1.9% | .300 | 4.87 | 11.6% | -2.4% | 41 | +0.80 | 4.07 | 120 | 92 |
| Jarret Whorff R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.08 | 18.9% | 10.2% | 2.4% | .271 | 3.84 | 21.6% | 13.4% | 73 | -0.24 | 3.84 | 206 | 92 |
| Stolmy Pimentel R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.53 | 16.0% | 10.5% | 2.6% | .338 | 3.89 | 13.6% | 3.1% | 72 | -0.64 | 3.89 | 143 | 90 |
| Scott Oberg R 2026 · 5.16 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.16 | 17.0% | 11.2% | 3.8% | .273 | 2.95 | 22.8% | 15.6% | 188 | -2.21 | 2.59 | 302 | 89 |
| Cameron Foster R 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.84 | 17.4% | 11.5% | 3.2% | .321 | 2.58 | 27.5% | 18.5% | 46 | -2.26 | 2.58 | 199 | 89 |
| Austin Ross R 2025 · 4.42 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.42 | 20.7% | 9.6% | 3.4% | .281 | 5.22 | 21.2% | 5.7% | 55 | +0.80 | 4.42 | 121 | 89 |
| Juan Paniagua R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.69 | 15.7% | 11.9% | 2.6% | .262 | 4.63 | 16.2% | 1.8% | 93 | -0.06 | 4.58 | 151 | 89 |
| Hunter McMahon R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.24 | 16.6% | 8.3% | 2.7% | .301 | 5.92 | 5.7% | 1.8% | 14 | +1.68 | 2.23 | 174 | 88 |
| Jordan Milbrath R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.05 | 19.9% | 10.4% | 2.4% | .272 | 3.60 | 19.6% | 9.7% | 129 | -0.45 | 3.20 | 386 | 88 |
| Pedro Echemendia R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.82 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 3.6% | .286 | 4.37 | 11.0% | 5.9% | 72 | -0.45 | 4.37 | 141 | 88 |
| Confesor Lara R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.26 | 16.4% | 11.0% | 2.1% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 111 | 88 |
| Derek Gordon R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.59 | 19.9% | 9.3% | 3.6% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.59 | 146 | 88 |
| Taylor Grover R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.69 | 17.5% | 8.4% | 1.8% | .317 | 4.94 | 19.4% | 9.1% | 89 | +1.25 | 3.69 | 239 | 88 |
| Logan Bawcom R 2027 · 3.88 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.88 | 15.8% | 9.1% | 1.8% | .320 | 4.35 | 15.9% | 6.2% | 259 | +0.47 | 3.73 | 399 | 88 |
| Nick Trogrlic-Iverson R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.59 | 15.1% | 10.4% | 2.6% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 218 | 87 |
| Jason Ruffcorn R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.06 | 17.8% | 10.7% | 2.0% | .315 | 4.08 | 20.4% | 9.9% | 107 | +0.02 | 4.04 | 214 | 87 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.