Chris McElvain — OGILVIE

Chris McElvain P New Hampshire Fisher Cats

Age 25 RHP 6'0" / 240 lbs AA peak 0.6 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION76 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132124vR 116

ERA5.21

FIP5.21

K%14.5%

BB%10.9%

K-BB%3.6%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 82 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL5050

CMD4040

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	19	96	413	87	41	9	83%	4.2	15.8%	11.6%	4.3%	2.8%	3.75	4.76	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	19	96	413	87	41	9	83%	4.2	15.8%	11.6%	4.3%	2.8%	3.75	4.76	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	19	96	413	87	41	9	83%	4.2	21.1%	9.9%	11.1%	2.2%	3.75	3.79	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	11	11	49	219	54	21	4	100%	4.5	19.0%	11.0%	8.0%	2.2%	4.56	4.07	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	11	11	49	219	54	21	4	100%	4.5	19.0%	11.0%	8.0%	2.2%	4.56	4.07	—
2024	23	A+ RAW	Vancouver Canadians	11	11	49	219	54	21	4	100%	4.5	24.7%	9.6%	15.1%	1.8%	4.56	3.24	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	21	79	351	72	29	6	100%	3.8	15.2%	9.6%	5.6%	2.5%	4.42	4.42	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	21	79	351	72	29	6	100%	3.8	15.2%	9.6%	5.6%	2.5%	4.42	4.42	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	21	21	79	351	72	29	6	100%	3.8	20.5%	8.3%	12.3%	1.7%	4.42	3.36	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	18	17	76	360	63	41	18	94%	4.2	14.2%	12.5%	1.6%	6.0%	7.43	6.78	—
YTD	25	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	18	17	76	360	63	41	18	94%	4.2	14.2%	12.5%	1.6%	6.0%	7.43	6.78	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	AA RAW	TOR	18	17	76	360	63	41	18	94%	4.2	17.5%	11.4%	6.1%	5.0%	7.43	5.81	—
ROS	25	MLB MLE	TOR	1	1	6	25	4	3	1	100%	5.9	14.5%	10.9%	3.6%	2.9%	5.21	5.21	-0.0
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	TOR	—	—	82	385	67	44	19	—	—	17.3%	11.4%	5.9%	4.9%	7.27	6.67	-1.7
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	TOR	12	12	75	316	51	34	9	100%	6.2	16.1%	10.7%	5.4%	2.9%	5.08	5.06	-0.1
2028	27	MLB MLE	TOR	12	12	74	311	52	33	9	100%	6.1	16.6%	10.7%	5.9%	2.9%	5.03	5.04	-0.1
2029	28	MLB MLE	TOR	12	12	72	302	51	32	9	100%	6.0	16.8%	10.8%	6.1%	3.0%	5.05	5.09	-0.2
2030	29	MLB MLE	TOR	11	11	68	288	48	32	9	100%	6.2	16.8%	10.9%	5.8%	3.2%	5.13	5.20	-0.2
2031	30	MLB MLE	TOR	11	11	64	271	44	30	9	100%	5.8	16.4%	11.2%	5.2%	3.4%	5.28	5.38	-0.3
2027	26	MLB CTX	TOR	6	6	33	139	22	15	4	100%	5.5	16.1%	10.7%	5.4%	2.9%	5.08	5.06	-0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	TOR	8	8	47	198	33	21	6	100%	5.9	16.6%	10.7%	5.9%	2.9%	5.03	5.04	-0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	TOR	9	9	54	228	38	25	7	100%	6.0	16.8%	10.8%	6.1%	3.0%	5.05	5.09	-0.1
2030	29	MLB CTX	TOR	9	9	56	236	40	26	8	100%	6.2	16.8%	10.9%	5.8%	3.2%	5.13	5.20	-0.2
2031	30	MLB CTX	TOR	9	9	55	232	38	26	8	100%	6.1	16.4%	11.2%	5.2%	3.4%	5.28	5.38	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		41	41	245	1032	171	112	32	100%	6.0	16.6%	10.9%	5.7%	3.1%	5.12	4.79	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	140	92	26	100%	6.0	16.6%	10.9%	5.7%	3.1%	5.12	4.79	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		73	68	301	1343	211	150	47	93%	4.1	15.7%	11.2%	4.5%	3.5%	4.99	5.10	-1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	45	200	892	140	100	31	93%	4.1	15.7%	11.2%	4.5%	3.5%	4.99	5.10	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Chris McElvain (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.21	14.5%	10.9%	2.9%	—	5.06	16.5%	5.8%	220	-0.15	—	—	—
Jarred Cosart R 2015 · 5.07 FIP	25	SP	5.07	15.2%	10.8%	3.4%	.274	4.94	13.1%	-0.5%	132	-0.13	4.10	218	89
Chris Kachmar R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	16.1%	11.4%	2.0%	.309	4.61	18.4%	9.4%	172	+0.32	4.29	360	87
Dylan Burns R 2022 · 4.21 FIP	25	SP	4.21	17.1%	10.8%	2.2%	.300	4.87	11.6%	-2.4%	41	+0.66	4.21	120	86
Bradley Brehmer R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SP	4.43	14.6%	9.5%	2.5%	.349	3.27	20.0%	11.5%	94	-1.16	2.83	165	86
Johendí Jiminian R 2018 · 5.25 FIP	25	SP	5.25	14.0%	11.4%	3.5%	.282	4.41	13.9%	4.4%	94	-0.84	4.01	419	85
Will Rudy R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.2%	9.2%	3.3%	.299	5.28	17.4%	8.6%	113	+0.52	4.76	194	83
Drew McDaniel R 2023 · 4.71 FIP	22	SP	4.71	14.1%	9.1%	3.0%	.323	5.08	18.7%	8.7%	152	+0.37	4.24	230	83
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	83
Baron Stuart R 2023 · 5.24 FIP	24	SP	5.24	14.5%	12.2%	3.3%	.266	4.23	17.6%	4.1%	205	-1.01	3.57	306	82
Stolmy Pimentel R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	25	SP-	4.47	16.0%	10.5%	2.5%	.338	3.87	13.6%	3.1%	72	-0.60	3.87	143	81
Patrick McGuff R 2018 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP	4.30	12.0%	10.4%	1.6%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	133	81
David Griffin R 2021 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP	4.43	19.2%	11.9%	2.6%	.279	5.26	15.3%	5.8%	168	+0.83	4.43	239	81
Cameron Wagoner R 2023 · 4.10 FIP	22	SP	4.10	14.8%	9.6%	1.9%	.326	2.86	27.7%	21.2%	39	-1.24	2.86	139	81
Chase Solesky R 2023 · 4.80 FIP	25	SP	4.80	14.6%	10.0%	3.0%	.322	4.49	15.4%	8.2%	268	-0.31	4.07	563	81
James Proctor R 2022 · 4.39 FIP	24	SP	4.39	14.0%	12.5%	1.6%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.99	109	81
Jack Noble R 2023 · 4.42 FIP	23	SP	4.42	16.5%	13.1%	1.9%	.258	6.03	20.3%	8.2%	58	+1.61	4.42	125	81
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	80
Michael Wagner R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	16.4%	12.3%	1.9%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	149	80
Ben Anderson R 2022 · 4.59 FIP	24	SP	4.59	13.0%	12.0%	1.9%	.270	4.32	14.3%	6.0%	217	-0.27	3.80	399	80
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.1	70	16.2%	10.9%	1.18	5.13
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78