Chris McElvain
P
New Hampshire Fisher Cats
Age 25
RHP
6'0" / 240 lbs
AA
peak 0.5 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION69 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 137128vR 119
ERA5.24
FIP5.24
K%14.5%
BB%10.8%
K-BB%3.7%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 133 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 19 | 96 | 413 | 87 | 41 | 9 | 83% | 4.2 | 15.8% | 11.6% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 3.75 | 4.79 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 19 | 96 | 413 | 87 | 41 | 9 | 83% | 4.2 | 21.1% | 9.9% | 11.1% | 2.2% | 3.75 | 3.79 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ | Vancouver Canadians | 11 | 11 | 49 | 219 | 54 | 21 | 4 | 100% | 4.5 | 19.0% | 11.0% | 8.0% | 2.0% | 4.56 | 4.01 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ | Vancouver Canadians | 11 | 11 | 49 | 219 | 54 | 21 | 4 | 100% | 4.5 | 24.7% | 9.6% | 15.1% | 1.8% | 4.56 | 3.24 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 21 | 21 | 79 | 351 | 72 | 29 | 6 | 100% | 3.8 | 15.2% | 9.6% | 5.6% | 2.9% | 4.42 | 4.64 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 21 | 21 | 79 | 351 | 72 | 29 | 6 | 100% | 3.8 | 20.5% | 8.3% | 12.3% | 1.7% | 4.42 | 3.36 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | 16 | 15 | 69 | 322 | 59 | 39 | 15 | 94% | 4.3 | 14.8% | 13.3% | 1.5% | 5.6% | 6.82 | 6.60 | -1.5 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | TOR | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 40 | 30 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 14.5% | 10.8% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 5.24 | 5.24 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | TOR | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 14.5% | 10.8% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 5.24 | 5.24 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 133 | 596 | 99 | 69 | 23 | — | — | 16.6% | 11.5% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 6.05 | 5.94 | -0.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 14.5% | 10.8% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 5.24 | 4.86 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | TOR | 12 | 12 | 70 | 296 | 47 | 31 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 16.1% | 10.6% | 5.5% | 2.9% | 5.11 | 5.08 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | TOR | 12 | 12 | 69 | 291 | 48 | 31 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 16.6% | 10.6% | 6.0% | 3.0% | 5.06 | 5.06 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | TOR | 11 | 11 | 67 | 282 | 48 | 30 | 9 | 100% | 6.1 | 16.8% | 10.7% | 6.2% | 3.1% | 5.08 | 5.11 | -0.3 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | TOR | 11 | 11 | 64 | 270 | 45 | 29 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 16.8% | 10.8% | 5.9% | 3.2% | 5.16 | 5.22 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | TOR | 5 | 5 | 31 | 131 | 21 | 14 | 4 | 100% | 6.2 | 16.1% | 10.6% | 5.5% | 2.9% | 5.11 | 5.08 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | TOR | 7 | 7 | 44 | 186 | 31 | 20 | 6 | 100% | 6.3 | 16.6% | 10.6% | 6.0% | 3.0% | 5.06 | 5.06 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | TOR | 8 | 8 | 51 | 215 | 36 | 23 | 7 | 100% | 6.4 | 16.8% | 10.7% | 6.2% | 3.1% | 5.08 | 5.11 | -0.3 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | TOR | 9 | 9 | 52 | 220 | 37 | 24 | 7 | 100% | 5.8 | 16.8% | 10.8% | 5.9% | 3.2% | 5.16 | 5.22 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 30 | 30 | 178 | 753 | 125 | 80 | 23 | 100% | 5.9 | 16.6% | 10.7% | 5.9% | 3.1% | 5.10 | 4.75 | +1.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 140 | 90 | 26 | 100% | 6.0 | 16.6% | 10.7% | 5.9% | 3.1% | 5.10 | 4.75 | +1.5 | ||
| Career | — | 71 | 66 | 293 | 1305 | 208 | 148 | 45 | 93% | 4.1 | 15.9% | 11.4% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 4.79 | 5.07 | +1.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 48 | 45 | 200 | 890 | 142 | 101 | 30 | 93% | 4.1 | 15.9% | 11.4% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 4.79 | 5.07 | +0.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Chris McElvain (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.24 | 14.5% | 10.8% | 2.9% | — | 5.08 | 16.5% | 5.9% | 206 | -0.16 | — | — | — |
| Jarred Cosart R 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.09 | 15.2% | 10.8% | 3.5% | .274 | 5.06 | 13.1% | -0.5% | 132 | -0.03 | 4.10 | 218 | 89 |
| Chris Kachmar R 2025 · 4.39 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.39 | 16.1% | 11.4% | 2.2% | .309 | 4.74 | 18.4% | 9.4% | 172 | +0.35 | 4.39 | 353 | 87 |
| Dylan Burns R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.06 | 17.1% | 10.8% | 1.9% | .300 | 4.86 | 11.6% | -2.4% | 41 | +0.80 | 4.06 | 120 | 85 |
| Johendí Jiminian R 2026 · 5.42 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.42 | 14.0% | 11.4% | 3.8% | .282 | 4.43 | 13.9% | 4.4% | 94 | -0.99 | 3.93 | 419 | 85 |
| David Griffin R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.52 | 19.2% | 11.9% | 2.8% | .279 | 5.47 | 15.6% | 5.5% | 168 | +0.95 | 4.52 | 239 | 81 |
| Chase Solesky R 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.73 | 15.2% | 11.2% | 2.7% | .322 | 4.57 | 16.0% | 7.7% | 241 | -0.16 | 4.08 | 536 | 81 |
| Stolmy Pimentel R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.28 | 16.0% | 10.5% | 2.2% | .338 | 3.79 | 13.6% | 3.1% | 72 | -0.49 | 3.79 | 143 | 81 |
| Patrick McGuff R 2025 · 4.22 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.22 | 12.0% | 10.4% | 1.5% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.81 | 133 | 80 |
| Elliot Morris R 2024 · 4.46 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.46 | 12.8% | 10.4% | 2.1% | .320 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.46 | 102 | 80 |
| James Proctor R 2025 · 4.35 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.35 | 14.0% | 12.5% | 1.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.02 | 109 | 80 |
| Alejandro Martinez R 2027 · 4.24 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.24 | 17.5% | 10.9% | 2.3% | .393 | 4.44 | 9.2% | 3.9% | 53 | +0.20 | 4.24 | 166 | 80 |
| Allen Webster R 2026 · 4.99 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.99 | 14.0% | 9.1% | 3.5% | .356 | 5.50 | 14.9% | 6.8% | 58 | +0.51 | 4.43 | 177 | 80 |
| Michael Wagner R 2025 · 4.27 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.27 | 16.4% | 12.3% | 1.8% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.10 | 149 | 80 |
| Ben Anderson R 2025 · 4.49 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.49 | 13.0% | 12.0% | 1.8% | .270 | 4.34 | 14.4% | 5.8% | 217 | -0.15 | 3.71 | 361 | 79 |
| Nic Swanson R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.79 | 19.3% | 11.8% | 3.3% | .286 | 5.16 | 19.9% | 6.6% | 108 | +0.37 | 4.09 | 414 | 79 |
| Evan Yates R 2024 · 4.51 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.51 | 16.2% | 10.1% | 2.7% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.45 | 169 | 79 |
| Jordan Cooper R 2027 · 5.05 FIP | 26 | SP | 5.05 | 9.2% | 10.2% | 2.6% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.05 | 106 | 79 |
| Parker Smith R 2024 · 5.01 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.01 | 13.3% | 8.9% | 3.5% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.22 | 132 | 79 |
| David Lebron R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.18 | 18.6% | 14.2% | 1.6% | .336 | 5.07 | 26.7% | 12.0% | 62 | +0.89 | 4.18 | 144 | 78 |
| J.P. France R 2025 · 5.38 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.38 | 17.9% | 13.9% | 3.7% | .285 | 4.39 | 26.3% | 15.2% | 225 | -0.99 | 4.11 | 563 | 78 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 68 | 16.1% | 10.7% | 1.18 | 5.13 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| Wily Peralta ('22) | 7 | 71 | 16.1% | 9.8% | 1.22 | 4.66 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |