Chris McElvain

P New Hampshire Fisher Cats

Age 26 RHP 6'0" / 240 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	A+TOR	11	11	49	4.56	3.24	24.7%	9.6%	—	K 19.0% · BB 11.0% · FIP 4.07
2025	24	MIX3 levels	21	21	79	4.42	3.36	20.5%	8.3%	—	K 15.2% · BB 9.6% · FIP 4.42
2026	25	AATOR	18	17	76	7.43	6.13	17.5%	11.4%	—	K 14.2% · BB 12.5% · FIP 6.78
2027PROJ	26	MLBTOR	1	1	1	6.01	6.01	13.1%	12.3%	-0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	27	MLBTOR	3	3	20	5.87	5.88	14.1%	12.0%	-0.1
2029PROJ60% MLB	28	MLBTOR	4	4	27	5.81	5.85	14.7%	12.0%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control50Command40

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 0.1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsJake Bockenstedt (age 24) · M.D. Johnson (age 26) · Jordan Cooper (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 147139vR 131

ERA6.01

FIP6.01

K%13.1%

BB%12.3%

K-BB%0.9%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL5050

CMD4040

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	19	96	413	87	41	9	83%	4.2	15.8%	11.6%	4.3%	2.8%	3.75	4.76	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	19	96	413	87	41	9	83%	4.2	21.1%	9.9%	11.1%	2.2%	3.75	3.79	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	11	11	49	219	54	21	4	100%	4.5	19.0%	11.0%	8.0%	2.2%	4.56	4.07	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	11	11	49	219	54	21	4	100%	4.5	19.0%	11.0%	8.0%	2.2%	4.56	4.07	—
2024	23	A+ RAW	Vancouver Canadians	11	11	49	219	54	21	4	100%	4.5	24.7%	9.6%	15.1%	1.8%	4.56	3.24	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	21	79	351	72	29	6	100%	3.8	15.2%	9.6%	5.6%	2.5%	4.42	4.42	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	21	79	351	72	29	6	100%	3.8	15.2%	9.6%	5.6%	2.5%	4.42	4.42	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	21	21	79	351	72	29	6	100%	3.8	20.5%	8.3%	12.3%	1.7%	4.42	3.36	—
2026	25	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	18	17	76	360	63	41	18	94%	4.2	14.2%	12.5%	1.6%	6.0%	7.43	6.78	—
2026	25	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	18	17	76	360	63	41	18	94%	4.2	14.2%	12.5%	1.6%	6.0%	7.43	6.78	—
2026	25	AA RAW	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	18	17	76	360	63	41	18	94%	4.2	17.5%	11.4%	6.1%	5.0%	7.43	6.13	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	TOR	1	1	1	4	1	1	0	100%	1.0	13.1%	12.3%	0.9%	3.8%	6.01	6.01	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	TOR	9	9	53	224	32	27	8	100%	5.9	14.1%	12.0%	2.1%	3.8%	5.87	5.88	-0.3
2029	28	MLB MLE	TOR	8	8	45	190	28	23	7	100%	5.6	14.7%	12.0%	2.7%	3.8%	5.81	5.85	-0.2
2030	29	MLB MLE	TOR	7	7	41	172	26	21	7	100%	5.8	14.9%	12.1%	2.9%	3.9%	5.83	5.90	-0.2
2031	30	MLB MLE	TOR	6	6	37	157	23	19	6	100%	6.2	14.8%	12.3%	2.5%	4.1%	5.94	6.04	-0.3
2028	27	MLB CTX	TOR	3	3	20	84	12	10	3	100%	6.7	14.1%	12.0%	2.1%	3.8%	5.87	5.88	-0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	TOR	4	4	27	114	17	14	4	100%	6.8	14.7%	12.0%	2.7%	3.8%	5.81	5.85	-0.1
2030	29	MLB CTX	TOR	5	5	29	122	18	15	5	100%	5.8	14.9%	12.1%	2.9%	3.9%	5.83	5.90	-0.2
2031	30	MLB CTX	TOR	5	5	29	122	18	15	5	100%	5.8	14.8%	12.3%	2.5%	4.1%	5.94	6.04	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		17	17	105	442	65	53	17	100%	6.2	14.7%	12.1%	2.6%	3.9%	5.86	5.54	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	124	101	32	100%	6.0	14.7%	12.1%	2.6%	3.9%	5.86	5.54	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		73	68	301	1343	211	150	47	93%	4.1	15.7%	11.2%	4.5%	3.5%	4.99	5.10	-1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	45	200	892	140	100	31	93%	4.1	15.7%	11.2%	4.5%	3.5%	4.99	5.10	-1.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 76 IPFIP 5.81 → 6.78 (+0.97)K% 17.5% → 14.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.50%	—	×0.810	14.17%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.39%	—	×1.100	12.53%
HR / BF /BF	5.00%	÷1.000	×1.200	6.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.81 → 6.78, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Vancouver Canadians · 62 IPFIP 3.50 → 4.46 (+0.96)K% 18.5% → 14.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.48%	—	×0.770	14.23%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.61%	—	×1.150	8.75%
HR / BF /BF	1.81%	÷0.855	×1.250	2.65%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 71).

Result: FIP 3.50 → 4.46, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ADunedin Blue Jays · 11 IPFIP 3.35 → 4.23 (+0.88)K% 27.5% → 20.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.45%	—	×0.740	20.31%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.76%	—	×1.180	13.88%
HR / BF /BF	1.96%	÷1.284	×1.300	1.98%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 157).

Result: FIP 3.35 → 4.23, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKFCL Blue Jays · 7 IPFIP 1.69 → 2.74 (+1.05)K% 29.2% → 19.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.17%	—	×0.680	19.83%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.33%	—	×1.250	10.42%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.077	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 115).

Result: FIP 1.69 → 2.74, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Vancouver Canadians · 49 IPFIP 3.23 → 4.07 (+0.84)K% 24.7% → 19.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.66%	—	×0.770	18.99%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.59%	—	×1.150	11.03%
HR / BF /BF	1.83%	÷1.062	×1.250	2.15%

Result: FIP 3.23 → 4.07, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ADaytona Tortugas · 50 IPFIP 2.90 → 3.84 (+0.94)K% 25.2% → 18.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.24%	—	×0.740	18.68%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.05%	—	×1.180	10.68%
HR / BF /BF	1.43%	÷1.060	×1.300	1.75%

Result: FIP 2.90 → 3.84, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Dayton Dragons · 46 IPFIP 4.68 → 5.72 (+1.04)K% 16.7% → 12.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.75%	—	×0.770	12.90%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.84%	—	×1.150	12.46%
HR / BF /BF	2.96%	÷0.951	×1.250	3.89%

Result: FIP 4.68 → 5.72, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Chris McElvain (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.01	13.1%	12.3%	3.8%	—	5.88	14.6%	2.5%	139	-0.13	—	—	—
Jake Bockenstedt R 2024 · 6.05 FIP	24	SP	6.05	17.0%	13.1%	5.0%	.322	4.35	16.8%	5.4%	126	-1.70	3.74	218	82
M.D. Johnson R 2023 · 5.64 FIP	26	SP	5.64	16.4%	12.7%	4.2%	.254	3.52	14.6%	4.7%	67	-2.12	3.52	395	79
Jordan Cooper R 2015 · 5.01 FIP	26	SP	5.01	9.2%	10.2%	2.5%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	5.01	106	79
Andrew Quezada R 2023 · 5.33 FIP	26	SP-	5.33	14.4%	9.5%	4.1%	.344	4.90	12.7%	5.3%	173	-0.43	4.40	412	78
Hayden Merda R 2023 · 5.17 FIP	23	SP	5.17	16.1%	15.3%	2.7%	.325	4.59	25.5%	10.9%	108	-0.58	4.20	203	77
Chance Kirby R 2021 · 5.83 FIP	26	SP-	5.83	15.1%	10.0%	5.0%	.242	4.59	18.5%	11.2%	138	-1.24	4.14	325	77
Travis Smith R 2002 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP	5.28	13.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.324	5.71	15.0%	9.0%	51	+0.43	3.67	105	77
Joe Nathan R 2000 · 5.19 FIP	25	SP-	5.19	14.3%	13.8%	2.8%	.262	3.30	26.3%	16.8%	79	-1.89	1.25	929	77
Paul Rigdon R 2001 · 5.34 FIP	25	SP	5.34	13.6%	11.1%	3.6%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	5.29	167	76
Justin Miller R 2004 · 5.41 FIP	26	SP-	5.41	12.5%	10.4%	3.7%	.316	2.63	28.6%	21.7%	62	-2.78	2.63	373	76
Darrell Rasner R 2007 · 5.15 FIP	26	SP	5.15	9.9%	7.2%	3.6%	.284	4.43	13.1%	5.7%	113	-0.72	4.07	158	75
Jacob Meador R 2024 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP-	5.34	15.6%	14.0%	3.2%	.301	6.73	14.7%	-6.6%	50	+1.39	5.34	139	75
Alex Blackford R 2017 · 5.59 FIP	26	SP	5.59	14.9%	12.5%	4.0%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	229	75
Noah Song R 2023 · 6.06 FIP	26	SP	6.06	12.0%	13.2%	4.2%	.239	3.80	19.8%	8.3%	116	-2.26	3.68	138	75
Nestor Molina R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	27	SP	4.83	15.0%	8.0%	3.6%	.304	3.61	17.0%	10.2%	289	-1.22	3.01	401	75
Jarrod Cande R 2024 · 5.42 FIP	24	SP	5.42	16.7%	11.0%	4.3%	.256	5.72	11.7%	-3.6%	23	+0.30	4.31	315	75
Seth Shuman R 2024 · 5.47 FIP	26	SP	5.47	14.1%	8.0%	4.7%	.273	4.61	17.0%	11.3%	157	-0.86	3.16	357	75
Hiram Burgos R 2013 · 4.89 FIP	25	SP	4.89	12.9%	7.9%	3.4%	.314	3.73	18.0%	8.7%	293	-1.16	3.40	384	74
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2015 · 5.24 FIP	27	SP-	5.24	11.6%	9.8%	3.4%	.263	4.28	15.3%	5.2%	167	-0.96	4.01	272	74
Josh Hancock R 2004 · 6.37 FIP	26	SP-	6.37	12.3%	8.9%	5.8%	.262	4.15	14.7%	8.6%	104	-2.22	3.57	167	74

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.2	49	14.2%	12.1%	1.49	5.90
Dave Stevens ('00)	1.3	50	14.6%	11.3%	1.76	6.02
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Matt Perisho ('05)	1.4	69	15.2%	12.2%	1.37	6.39
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Darrel Akerfelds ('86-'91, -3 WAR*)	1.2	78	15.8%*	11.9%*	1.61*	5.40*
Dennis Powell ('85-'93, -2 WAR*)	1.7	49	17.6%*	10.1%*	1.18*	5.31*