Aaron Davenport — OGILVIE

Aaron Davenport P Columbus Clippers

Age 26 RHP 6'0" / 185 lbs AAA peak 0.6 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 7 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 135126vR 118

ERA5.34

FIP5.34

K%15.7%

BB%12.0%

K-BB%3.7%

ROS IP7

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 7 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4040

CMD3535

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	6	17	67	26	10	2	86%	2.4	38.8%	14.9%	23.9%	3.0%	3.24	3.35	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	6	17	67	26	10	2	86%	2.4	38.8%	14.9%	23.9%	3.0%	3.24	3.34	—
2022	22	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	23	23	107	454	118	52	13	100%	4.7	20.0%	13.2%	6.8%	3.2%	4.21	4.81	—
2022	22	A+ RAW	Lake County Captains	23	23	107	454	118	52	13	100%	4.7	26.0%	11.5%	14.5%	2.9%	4.21	3.93	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	24	19	115	510	95	65	19	79%	4.8	14.3%	14.7%	-0.3%	4.4%	5.73	6.16	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	24	19	115	510	95	65	19	79%	4.8	14.3%	14.7%	-0.3%	4.4%	5.73	6.16	—
2023	23	A+ RAW	Lake County Captains	24	19	115	510	95	65	19	79%	4.8	18.6%	12.7%	5.9%	3.7%	5.73	5.30	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	27	26	142	587	135	52	11	96%	5.3	18.6%	9.7%	8.9%	2.3%	2.85	4.04	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	27	26	142	587	135	52	11	96%	5.3	18.6%	9.7%	8.9%	2.3%	2.85	4.04	—
2024	24	AA RAW	Akron RubberDucks	27	26	142	587	135	52	11	96%	5.3	23.0%	8.9%	14.1%	1.9%	2.85	3.30	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	24	134	575	117	62	18	86%	4.8	16.7%	9.9%	6.8%	3.5%	4.44	4.87	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	24	134	575	117	62	18	86%	4.8	16.7%	9.9%	6.8%	3.5%	4.44	4.87	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	24	134	575	117	62	18	86%	4.8	20.3%	10.8%	9.6%	3.1%	4.44	4.49	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	26	MLB	CLE	1	1	7	30	5	4	1	100%	7.0	15.7%	12.0%	3.7%	3.0%	5.34	5.34	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	CLE	22	22	130	550	90	64	17	100%	5.9	16.4%	11.7%	4.7%	3.1%	5.26	5.27	-0.5
2028	28	MLB MLE	CLE	22	22	130	550	92	63	18	100%	5.9	16.7%	11.5%	5.2%	3.2%	5.24	5.28	-0.6
2029	29	MLB MLE	CLE	21	21	124	525	88	61	17	100%	5.9	16.7%	11.5%	5.1%	3.3%	5.29	5.36	-0.6
2030	30	MLB MLE	CLE	19	19	117	493	81	58	17	100%	6.1	16.5%	11.7%	4.7%	3.5%	5.41	5.51	-0.8
2027	27	MLB CTX	CLE	9	9	55	232	38	27	7	100%	6.1	16.4%	11.7%	4.7%	3.1%	5.26	5.27	-0.2
2028	28	MLB CTX	CLE	14	14	81	342	57	39	11	100%	5.8	16.7%	11.5%	5.2%	3.2%	5.24	5.28	-0.3
2029	29	MLB CTX	CLE	15	15	90	380	63	44	13	100%	6.0	16.7%	11.5%	5.1%	3.3%	5.29	5.36	-0.5
2030	30	MLB CTX	CLE	16	16	93	393	65	46	14	100%	5.8	16.5%	11.7%	4.7%	3.5%	5.41	5.51	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		53	53	321	1353	224	157	45	100%	6.0	16.6%	11.6%	4.9%	3.3%	5.31	4.99	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	140	98	28	100%	6.0	16.6%	11.6%	4.9%	3.3%	5.31	4.99	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		109	98	514	2193	396	259	73	90%	4.7	18.0%	11.8%	6.2%	3.3%	4.20	4.89	-2.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		42	38	200	853	154	101	28	90%	4.7	18.0%	11.8%	6.2%	3.3%	4.20	4.89	-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Aaron Davenport (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.34	15.7%	12.0%	3.0%	—	5.30	16.6%	5.0%	385	-0.04	—	—	—
Baron Stuart R 2023 · 5.24 FIP	24	SP	5.24	14.5%	12.2%	3.3%	.266	4.23	17.6%	4.1%	205	-1.01	3.57	306	88
Luke Irvine R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	13.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	104	84
Scarlyn Reyes R 2016 · 4.52 FIP	26	SP	4.52	13.9%	11.9%	2.0%	.321	4.87	13.7%	5.3%	70	+0.35	4.16	317	84
M.D. Johnson R 2023 · 5.64 FIP	26	SP	5.64	16.4%	12.7%	4.2%	.254	3.52	14.6%	4.7%	67	-2.12	3.52	395	83
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	83
Nestor Molina R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	27	SP	4.83	15.0%	8.0%	3.6%	.304	3.61	17.0%	10.2%	289	-1.22	3.01	401	83
Allen Webster R 2015 · 5.05 FIP	25	SP	5.05	14.0%	9.1%	3.6%	.356	5.78	14.9%	6.8%	58	+0.73	4.56	177	82
Chase Solesky R 2023 · 4.80 FIP	25	SP	4.80	14.6%	10.0%	3.0%	.322	4.49	15.4%	8.2%	268	-0.31	4.07	563	82
Hector Velázquez R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	26	SP	4.31	15.0%	8.7%	2.5%	.297	3.35	18.1%	12.8%	343	-0.96	2.75	536	81
Jordan Cooper R 2015 · 5.01 FIP	26	SP	5.01	9.2%	10.2%	2.5%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	5.01	106	81
Andrew Quezada R 2023 · 5.33 FIP	26	SP-	5.33	14.4%	9.5%	4.1%	.344	4.92	12.5%	5.0%	173	-0.41	4.40	412	81
Shaddon Peavyhouse R 2023 · 4.78 FIP	24	SP	4.78	14.7%	12.4%	2.5%	.299	5.21	14.8%	2.5%	137	+0.43	4.43	270	81
Jack Noble R 2023 · 4.42 FIP	23	SP	4.42	16.5%	13.1%	1.9%	.258	6.03	20.3%	8.2%	58	+1.61	4.42	125	81
Hayden Merda R 2023 · 5.17 FIP	23	SP	5.17	16.1%	15.3%	2.7%	.325	4.41	25.9%	11.8%	106	-0.76	3.84	202	81
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	81
Bradley Brehmer R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SP	4.43	14.6%	9.5%	2.5%	.349	3.27	20.0%	11.5%	94	-1.16	2.83	165	80
Elliot Morris R 2015 · 4.32 FIP	23	SP	4.32	12.8%	10.4%	1.8%	.320	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	102	80
Justin Armbruester R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SP	4.44	17.3%	9.6%	2.9%	.271	5.30	20.4%	9.9%	135	+0.86	1.49	373	79
David Lebron R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	25	SP-	4.28	18.6%	14.2%	1.7%	.336	5.56	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.28	4.28	144	79
Kyle Haynes R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	25	SP	4.58	15.7%	9.9%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	240	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.0	118	16.4%	11.7%	1.25	5.30
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Homer Bailey ('19)	1.9	96	18.5%	7.8%	1.34	5.56
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54