Aaron Davenport

P Columbus Clippers

Age 27 RHP 6'0" / 185 lbs AAA peak 0.5 · 2027

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	23	A+CLE	24	19	115	5.73	5.30	18.6%	12.7%	—	K 14.3% · BB 14.7% · FIP 6.16
2024	24	AACLE	27	26	142	2.85	3.30	23.0%	8.9%	—	K 18.6% · BB 9.7% · FIP 4.04
2025	25	MIX2 levels	28	24	134	4.44	4.49	20.3%	10.8%	—	K 17.2% · BB 9.9% · FIP 4.84
2026	26	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	27	MLBCLE	2	2	9	5.25	5.25	16.2%	11.6%	0.0
2028PROJ43% MLB	28	MLBCLE	5	5	30	5.20	5.23	16.7%	11.4%	0.1
2029PROJ59% MLB	29	MLBCLE	6	6	36	5.23	5.29	16.8%	11.3%	0.0

Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control40Command35

CompsLuke Irvine (age 27) · Nestor Molina (age 27) · Marco Antonio Duarte (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133125vR 117

ERA5.25

FIP5.25

K%16.2%

BB%11.6%

K-BB%4.5%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4040

CMD3535

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	6	17	67	26	10	2	86%	2.4	38.8%	14.9%	23.9%	3.0%	3.24	3.35	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	6	17	67	26	10	2	86%	2.4	38.8%	14.9%	23.9%	3.0%	3.24	3.34	—
2022	22	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	23	23	107	454	118	52	13	100%	4.7	20.0%	13.2%	6.8%	3.2%	4.21	4.81	—
2022	22	A+ RAW	Lake County Captains	23	23	107	454	118	52	13	100%	4.7	26.0%	11.5%	14.5%	2.9%	4.21	3.93	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	24	19	115	510	95	65	19	79%	4.8	14.3%	14.7%	-0.3%	4.4%	5.73	6.16	—
2023	23	A+ RAW	Lake County Captains	24	19	115	510	95	65	19	79%	4.8	18.6%	12.7%	5.9%	3.7%	5.73	5.30	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	27	26	142	587	135	52	11	96%	5.3	18.6%	9.7%	8.9%	2.3%	2.85	4.04	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	27	26	142	587	135	52	11	96%	5.3	18.6%	9.7%	8.9%	2.3%	2.85	4.04	—
2024	24	AA RAW	Akron RubberDucks	27	26	142	587	135	52	11	96%	5.3	23.0%	8.9%	14.1%	1.9%	2.85	3.30	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	24	134	575	117	62	18	86%	4.8	17.2%	9.9%	7.2%	3.5%	4.44	4.84	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	24	134	575	117	62	18	86%	4.8	17.2%	9.9%	7.2%	3.5%	4.44	4.84	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	24	134	575	117	62	18	86%	4.8	20.3%	10.8%	9.6%	3.1%	4.44	4.49	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	CLE	2	2	9	38	6	4	1	100%	4.5	16.2%	11.6%	4.5%	3.0%	5.25	5.25	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	CLE	12	12	71	300	50	34	9	100%	5.9	16.7%	11.4%	5.3%	3.1%	5.20	5.23	+0.1
2029	29	MLB MLE	CLE	10	10	61	256	43	29	8	100%	6.1	16.8%	11.3%	5.5%	3.3%	5.23	5.29	+0.1
2030	30	MLB MLE	CLE	9	9	54	226	38	26	8	100%	6.0	16.7%	11.5%	5.2%	3.5%	5.32	5.42	-0.0
2028	28	MLB CTX	CLE	5	5	30	127	21	14	4	100%	6.0	16.7%	11.4%	5.3%	3.1%	5.20	5.23	+0.1
2029	29	MLB CTX	CLE	6	6	36	152	26	17	5	100%	6.0	16.8%	11.3%	5.5%	3.3%	5.23	5.29	+0.0
2030	30	MLB CTX	CLE	6	6	38	160	27	18	6	100%	6.3	16.7%	11.5%	5.2%	3.5%	5.32	5.42	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		17	17	104	438	73	50	14	100%	6.1	16.7%	11.4%	5.3%	3.3%	5.25	4.94	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	141	96	27	100%	6.0	16.7%	11.4%	5.3%	3.3%	5.25	4.94	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		109	98	514	2193	398	259	73	90%	4.7	18.1%	11.8%	6.3%	3.3%	4.20	4.88	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		42	38	200	853	155	101	28	90%	4.7	18.1%	11.8%	6.3%	3.3%	4.20	4.88	+0.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAAColumbus Clippers · 93 IPFIP 4.66 → 4.72 (+0.06)K% 18.5% → 15.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.47%	—	×0.860	15.88%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.19%	—	×0.900	11.87%
HR / BF /BF	2.64%	÷1.093	×1.100	2.66%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 118).

Result: FIP 4.66 → 4.72, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAkron RubberDucks · 41 IPFIP 3.96 → 5.14 (+1.18)K% 25.3% → 20.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.32%	—	×0.810	20.51%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.43%	—	×1.100	4.87%
HR / BF /BF	4.43%	÷0.926	×1.200	5.74%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 85).

Result: FIP 3.96 → 5.14, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAkron RubberDucks · 142 IPFIP 3.31 → 4.04 (+0.73)K% 23.0% → 18.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.00%	—	×0.810	18.63%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.86%	—	×1.100	9.74%
HR / BF /BF	1.87%	÷0.966	×1.200	2.33%

Result: FIP 3.31 → 4.04, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Lake County Captains · 115 IPFIP 5.19 → 6.16 (+0.97)K% 18.6% → 14.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.63%	—	×0.770	14.34%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.75%	—	×1.150	14.66%
HR / BF /BF	3.73%	÷1.060	×1.250	4.39%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 112).

Result: FIP 5.19 → 6.16, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Lake County Captains · 107 IPFIP 3.93 → 4.81 (+0.88)K% 26.0% → 20.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.99%	—	×0.770	20.01%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.45%	—	×1.150	13.17%
HR / BF /BF	2.86%	÷1.134	×1.250	3.16%

Result: FIP 3.93 → 4.81, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ALynchburg Hillcats · 11 IPFIP 2.52 → 3.69 (+1.16)K% 34.1% → 25.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.09%	—	×0.740	25.23%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	18.18%	—	×1.180	21.45%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.950	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 90).

Result: FIP 2.52 → 3.69, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKACL Indians · 6 IPFIP 4.94 → 6.22 (+1.28)K% 47.8% → 32.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	47.83%	—	×0.680	32.52%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.70%	—	×1.250	10.87%
HR / BF /BF	8.70%	÷1.488	×1.400	8.18%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 198).

Result: FIP 4.94 → 6.22, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Aaron Davenport (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.25	16.2%	11.6%	3.0%	—	5.30	16.7%	5.3%	185	+0.05	—	—	—
Luke Irvine R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	13.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	104	85
Nestor Molina R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	27	SP	4.83	15.0%	8.0%	3.6%	.304	3.61	17.0%	10.2%	289	-1.22	3.01	401	84
Marco Antonio Duarte R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	28	SP	4.07	15.5%	9.1%	2.0%	.306	4.73	9.0%	-1.2%	38	+0.66	4.07	203	82
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	81
Jordan Cooper R 2015 · 5.01 FIP	26	SP	5.01	9.2%	10.2%	2.5%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	5.01	106	80
Zach Fruit R 2024 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	19.3%	14.1%	1.9%	.258	5.03	15.4%	-0.2%	44	+0.74	4.29	151	78
Travis Smith R 2002 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP	5.28	13.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.324	5.71	15.0%	9.0%	51	+0.43	3.67	105	78
Nic Swanson R 2024 · 4.91 FIP	25	SP	4.91	19.3%	11.8%	3.5%	.286	5.43	19.9%	6.5%	132	+0.52	4.29	438	78
Jake Bockenstedt R 2024 · 6.05 FIP	24	SP	6.05	17.0%	13.1%	5.0%	.322	4.35	16.8%	5.4%	126	-1.70	3.74	218	78
Jared Mortensen R 2015 · 4.42 FIP	27	SP-	4.42	16.9%	7.8%	3.2%	.287	4.99	20.9%	2.1%	72	+0.57	4.42	200	77
Kyle Haynes R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	25	SP	4.58	15.7%	9.9%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	240	77
Paul Rigdon R 2001 · 5.34 FIP	25	SP	5.34	13.6%	11.1%	3.6%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	5.29	167	77
Brannon Easterling R 2017 · 4.40 FIP	26	SP-	4.40	12.7%	8.2%	2.4%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	334	76
Frank Batista R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	26	SP-	4.29	12.1%	8.2%	2.1%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	118	76
Caleb Clay R 2015 · 4.67 FIP	27	SP	4.67	9.9%	6.9%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	111	76
Gabriel Arias R 2015 · 4.42 FIP	25	SP	4.42	13.1%	7.2%	2.8%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	195	75
Deck McGuire R 2016 · 5.23 FIP	27	SP	5.23	17.2%	8.5%	4.6%	.287	4.05	19.8%	9.4%	277	-1.18	3.41	622	75
Austin Bergner R 2024 · 4.84 FIP	27	SP	4.84	22.2%	12.5%	3.7%	.325	4.42	18.7%	7.3%	107	-0.42	4.06	464	75
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2015 · 5.24 FIP	27	SP-	5.24	11.6%	9.8%	3.4%	.263	4.28	15.3%	5.2%	167	-0.96	4.01	272	75
Nate Long R 2015 · 4.67 FIP	29	SP	4.67	14.8%	10.6%	2.7%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	151	75

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.4	69	16.5%	11.5%	1.23	5.25
Luther Hackman ('03)	1.1	71	13.3%	10.9%	1.10	5.09
Rodney Myers ('04)	1.2	60	15.0%	10.3%	1.05	5.07
Justin Miller ('10)	1.9	63	18.1%	11.3%	1.17	4.82
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Jim Winn ('83-'88, -1 WAR*)	1.5	77	15.1%*	11.0%*	1.09*	4.96*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*