Aaron Davenport
P
Columbus Clippers
Age 26
RHP
6'0" / 185 lbs
AAA
peak 0.5 · 2027
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 90 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 141132vR 123
ERA5.45
FIP5.45
K%16.2%
BB%13.3%
K-BB%3.0%
ROS IP90
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 7 | 6 | 17 | 67 | 26 | 10 | 2 | 86% | 2.4 | 38.8% | 14.9% | 23.9% | 3.0% | 3.24 | 3.35 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 7 | 6 | 17 | 67 | 26 | 10 | 2 | 86% | 2.4 | 38.8% | 14.9% | 23.9% | 3.0% | 3.24 | 3.34 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | Lake County Captains | 23 | 23 | 107 | 454 | 118 | 52 | 13 | 100% | 4.7 | 20.0% | 13.2% | 6.8% | 2.8% | 4.21 | 4.63 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | Lake County Captains | 23 | 23 | 107 | 454 | 118 | 52 | 13 | 100% | 4.7 | 26.0% | 11.5% | 14.5% | 2.9% | 4.21 | 3.93 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Lake County Captains | 24 | 19 | 115 | 510 | 95 | 65 | 19 | 79% | 4.8 | 14.3% | 14.7% | -0.3% | 4.2% | 5.73 | 6.03 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Lake County Captains | 24 | 19 | 115 | 510 | 95 | 65 | 19 | 79% | 4.8 | 18.6% | 12.7% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 5.73 | 5.30 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Akron RubberDucks | 27 | 26 | 142 | 587 | 135 | 52 | 11 | 96% | 5.3 | 18.6% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 2.4% | 2.85 | 4.09 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Akron RubberDucks | 27 | 26 | 142 | 587 | 135 | 52 | 11 | 96% | 5.3 | 23.0% | 8.9% | 14.1% | 1.9% | 2.85 | 3.30 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 24 | 134 | 575 | 117 | 62 | 18 | 86% | 4.8 | 17.4% | 11.4% | 6.0% | 3.5% | 4.44 | 4.99 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 24 | 134 | 575 | 117 | 62 | 18 | 86% | 4.8 | 20.3% | 10.8% | 9.6% | 3.1% | 4.44 | 4.49 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | CLE | 15 | 15 | 90 | 380 | 62 | 50 | 11 | 100% | 6.0 | 16.2% | 13.3% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 5.45 | 5.45 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CLE | 15 | 15 | 93 | 391 | 66 | 50 | 12 | 100% | 6.2 | 16.8% | 12.8% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 5.35 | 5.37 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | CLE | 15 | 15 | 93 | 391 | 67 | 49 | 12 | 100% | 6.2 | 17.1% | 12.6% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 5.32 | 5.37 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CLE | 6 | 6 | 39 | 165 | 28 | 21 | 5 | 100% | 6.5 | 16.8% | 12.8% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 5.35 | 5.37 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | CLE | 10 | 10 | 58 | 245 | 42 | 31 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 17.1% | 12.6% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 5.32 | 5.37 | -0.6 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 16 | 16 | 97 | 411 | 70 | 52 | 13 | 100% | 6.1 | 17.0% | 12.6% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 5.33 | 4.99 | +0.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 144 | 107 | 27 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.0% | 12.6% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 5.33 | 4.99 | +1.0 | ||
| Career | — | 109 | 98 | 514 | 2193 | 400 | 267 | 70 | 90% | 4.7 | 18.2% | 12.2% | 6.0% | 3.2% | 4.20 | 4.86 | +3.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 42 | 38 | 200 | 853 | 155 | 104 | 27 | 90% | 4.7 | 18.2% | 12.2% | 6.0% | 3.2% | 4.20 | 4.86 | +1.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Aaron Davenport (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.45 | 16.2% | 13.3% | 3.0% | — | 5.37 | 16.9% | 4.3% | 185 | -0.08 | — | — | — |
| M.D. Johnson R 2026 · 5.46 FIP | 26 | SP | 5.46 | 16.4% | 12.7% | 3.9% | .254 | 3.50 | 14.6% | 4.7% | 67 | -1.96 | 3.50 | 395 | 84 |
| Scarlyn Reyes R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.59 | 13.9% | 11.9% | 2.1% | .321 | 4.87 | 13.7% | 5.3% | 70 | +0.28 | 4.39 | 317 | 83 |
| Kevin Abel R 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.47 | 17.8% | 12.0% | 2.5% | .264 | 5.41 | 17.8% | 2.5% | 82 | +0.94 | 4.41 | 421 | 81 |
| Allen Webster R 2025 · 4.99 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.99 | 14.0% | 9.1% | 3.5% | .356 | 5.50 | 14.9% | 6.8% | 58 | +0.51 | 4.43 | 177 | 79 |
| Elliot Morris R 2023 · 4.46 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.46 | 12.8% | 10.4% | 2.1% | .320 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.46 | 102 | 79 |
| Jarred Cosart R 2026 · 5.27 FIP | 26 | SP | 5.27 | 13.1% | 12.9% | 3.0% | .297 | 4.10 | 13.2% | -3.5% | 24 | -1.17 | 4.10 | 218 | 79 |
| Jordan Cooper R 2026 · 5.05 FIP | 26 | SP | 5.05 | 9.2% | 10.2% | 2.6% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.05 | 106 | 79 |
| Andrew Quezada R 2026 · 5.25 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.25 | 14.4% | 9.5% | 4.0% | .344 | 5.06 | 12.9% | 4.7% | 173 | -0.19 | 4.25 | 412 | 79 |
| Nick Pasquale R 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.73 | 16.8% | 12.7% | 2.6% | .306 | 3.97 | 17.9% | 6.3% | 50 | -0.76 | 3.16 | 308 | 79 |
| Trystan Vrieling R 2025 · 5.66 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.66 | 16.8% | 17.2% | 3.3% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | 297 | 79 |
| Michael Wagner R 2024 · 4.27 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.27 | 16.4% | 12.3% | 1.8% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.10 | 149 | 78 |
| Nestor Molina R 2027 · 5.13 FIP | 27 | SP | 5.13 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 4.2% | .304 | 3.57 | 17.0% | 10.2% | 289 | -1.56 | 3.07 | 401 | 78 |
| Kyle Haynes R 2025 · 4.58 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.58 | 15.7% | 9.9% | 2.8% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.13 | 240 | 77 |
| Phillippe Aumont R 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.64 | 19.6% | 18.2% | 1.6% | .262 | 5.31 | 22.3% | 10.4% | 64 | +0.67 | 4.64 | 147 | 76 |
| Jarrod Cande R 2024 · 5.66 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.66 | 16.7% | 11.0% | 4.7% | .256 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.37 | 292 | 76 |
| Alex Williams R 2026 · 5.23 FIP | 26 | SP | 5.23 | 17.7% | 10.5% | 4.2% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 322 | 76 |
| Ryan Cardona R 2025 · 5.21 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.21 | 12.0% | 14.9% | 2.3% | .237 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.46 | 367 | 75 |
| Noah Davis R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.88 | 16.0% | 12.6% | 2.8% | .296 | 4.31 | 19.2% | 8.6% | 237 | -0.57 | 3.64 | 560 | 75 |
| Jackson Tetreault R 2026 · 5.19 FIP | 26 | SP | 5.19 | 15.9% | 10.2% | 3.9% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 404 | 75 |
| Ben Meyer R 2026 · 5.32 FIP | 26 | SP | 5.32 | 19.4% | 13.1% | 4.0% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.27 | 387 | 75 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 92 | 16.7% | 12.9% | 1.20 | 5.37 |
| Yovani Gallardo ('18) | 4 | 132 | 15.4% | 10.2% | 1.18 | 4.97 |
| Chris Tillman ('18) | 4 | 116 | 16.5% | 9.7% | 1.34 | 5.42 |
| Tom Koehler ('17) | 3 | 146 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 1.24 | 4.62 |
| James Kaprielian ('23) | 3 | 105 | 20.5% | 9.6% | 1.26 | 4.58 |
| Brandon Finnegan ('18) | 3 | 80 | 19.7% | 11.6% | 1.57 | 4.19 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |