Aaron Davenport
P
Columbus Clippers
+0.0
WAR
Age 26
RHP
6'0" / 185 lbs
AAA
peak 0.6 · 2028
ERA4.99
FIP4.99
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%18.7%
BB%11.1%
K-BB%7.6%
IP120
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.6peak
2028
STUF4040
CTRL4040
CMD3535
K†4045
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 21 | A | Lynchburg Hillcats | 7 | 6 | 17 | 67 | 26 | 10 | 2 | — | — | — | 3.24 | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | Lake County Captains | 23 | 23 | 107 | 454 | 118 | 52 | 13 | 20.0% | 13.2% | 3.2% | 4.21 | 4.86 | +0.5 |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Lake County Captains | 24 | 19 | 115 | 510 | 95 | 65 | 19 | 14.3% | 14.7% | 4.5% | 5.73 | 6.19 | -1.2 |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Akron RubberDucks | 27 | 26 | 142 | 587 | 135 | 52 | 11 | 18.6% | 9.7% | 2.4% | 2.85 | 4.06 | +2.0 |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA | Columbus Clippers | 28 | 24 | 134 | 575 | 117 | 62 | 18 | 17.4% | 11.4% | 3.5% | 4.44 | 5.00 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | CLE | 22 | 22 | 120 | 507 | 89 | 65 | 16 | 17.5% | 12.8% | 3.1% | 5.31 | 5.31 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CLE | 22 | 22 | 123 | 520 | 93 | 64 | 16 | 18.0% | 12.3% | 3.1% | 5.21 | 5.21 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | CLE | 22 | 22 | 123 | 521 | 95 | 63 | 16 | 18.2% | 12.0% | 3.1% | 5.15 | 5.17 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | CLE | 22 | 22 | 120 | 509 | 93 | 60 | 16 | 18.3% | 11.9% | 3.1% | 5.14 | 5.16 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | CLE | 21 | 21 | 117 | 494 | 90 | 59 | 16 | 18.2% | 11.9% | 3.2% | 5.17 | 5.20 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | CLE | 21 | 21 | 113 | 476 | 85 | 57 | 16 | 17.9% | 12.0% | 3.3% | 5.24 | 5.28 | +0.0 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | CLE | 20 | 20 | 108 | 457 | 81 | 56 | 15 | 17.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | 5.32 | 5.37 | -0.1 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | CLE | 19 | 19 | 103 | 437 | 76 | 54 | 15 | 17.3% | 12.3% | 3.4% | 5.41 | 5.46 | -0.2 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | CLE | 18 | 18 | 98 | 415 | 70 | 52 | 15 | 17.0% | 12.5% | 3.5% | 5.51 | 5.57 | -0.3 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | CLE | 17 | 17 | 93 | 391 | 65 | 50 | 14 | 16.6% | 12.8% | 3.6% | 5.62 | 5.70 | -0.5 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | CLE | 16 | 16 | 87 | 366 | 59 | 48 | 14 | 16.2% | 13.0% | 3.8% | 5.75 | 5.83 | -0.6 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 109 | 98 | 514 | 2193 | 400 | 267 | 74 | 18.2% | 12.2% | 3.4% | 4.20 | 4.95 | +2.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 42 | 38 | 200 | 853 | 156 | 104 | 29 | 18.2% | 12.2% | 3.4% | 4.20 | 4.95 | +0.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Aaron Davenport (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.31 | 17.5% | 12.8% | 3.1% | — | 5.18 | 18.2% | 6.1% | 367 | -0.13 | — | — | — |
| Nick Pasquale R 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.74 | 16.8% | 12.7% | 2.6% | .306 | 3.81 | 17.9% | 6.3% | 50 | -0.93 | 3.19 | 308 | 89 |
| M.D. Johnson R 2026 · 5.63 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.63 | 16.4% | 12.7% | 4.2% | .254 | 3.52 | 14.6% | 4.7% | 67 | -2.11 | 3.52 | 395 | 86 |
| Kevin Abel R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.51 | 17.8% | 12.0% | 2.5% | .264 | 5.78 | 15.1% | -7.3% | 13 | +1.27 | 4.50 | 352 | 86 |
| Jake Bockenstedt R 2025 · 4.46 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.46 | 16.9% | 11.4% | 2.5% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.46 | 195 | 86 |
| Kyle Haynes R 2025 · 4.58 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.58 | 15.7% | 9.9% | 2.8% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 240 | 85 |
| Scarlyn Reyes R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.53 | 13.9% | 11.9% | 2.0% | .321 | 4.88 | 13.7% | 5.3% | 70 | +0.35 | 4.17 | 317 | 85 |
| Dennis O'Grady R 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.98 | 13.5% | 11.0% | 3.0% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 157 | 84 |
| Bryce Conley R 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.35 | 17.9% | 12.2% | 2.2% | .285 | 4.28 | 16.4% | 5.3% | 48 | -0.07 | 4.28 | 448 | 83 |
| Luke Irvine R 2027 · 4.31 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.31 | 13.4% | 9.8% | 2.0% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 104 | 83 |
| David Lebron R 2025 · 4.30 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.30 | 18.6% | 14.2% | 1.8% | .336 | 5.70 | 26.7% | 12.0% | 62 | +1.40 | 4.30 | 144 | 82 |
| Logan Verrett R 2026 · 5.08 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.08 | 15.4% | 10.6% | 3.5% | .283 | 4.68 | 17.8% | 11.8% | 94 | -0.40 | 3.83 | 550 | 82 |
| Ranfi Casimiro R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.66 | 16.4% | 10.7% | 2.9% | .285 | 4.91 | 8.4% | -0.2% | 16 | +0.25 | 3.81 | 420 | 82 |
| Sam Highfill R 2024 · 4.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.80 | 15.0% | 8.6% | 3.4% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.80 | 106 | 81 |
| Nestor Molina R 2027 · 4.81 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.81 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 3.6% | .304 | 3.61 | 17.0% | 10.2% | 289 | -1.20 | 3.03 | 401 | 81 |
| Luis Santos R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.78 | 19.7% | 9.7% | 3.9% | .262 | 3.93 | 22.1% | 13.0% | 127 | -0.85 | 3.50 | 472 | 81 |
| André Rienzo R 2027 · 4.22 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.22 | 15.7% | 11.1% | 1.9% | .264 | 4.01 | 19.8% | 5.1% | 74 | -0.21 | 3.54 | 200 | 81 |
| Andrew Quezada R 2026 · 5.36 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.36 | 14.4% | 9.5% | 4.2% | .344 | 4.99 | 12.9% | 4.7% | 173 | -0.37 | 4.37 | 412 | 81 |
| Forrest Snow R 2026 · 5.10 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.10 | 16.1% | 8.2% | 4.2% | .263 | 4.13 | 21.8% | 14.2% | 256 | -0.97 | 3.03 | 406 | 81 |
| Jared Mortensen R 2027 · 4.42 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.42 | 16.9% | 7.8% | 3.2% | .287 | 5.02 | 20.9% | 2.1% | 72 | +0.60 | 4.42 | 200 | 81 |
| Mike Connolly R 2026 · 5.12 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.12 | 13.2% | 9.4% | 3.5% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.88 | 328 | 81 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.