Jamison Hill
P
Amarillo Sod Poodles
+0.4
WAR
Age 27
RHP
6'1" / 180 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 0.5 · 2027
ERA4.82
FIP4.82
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%20.0%
BB%10.3%
K-BB%9.8%
IP93
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2027
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | A | Visalia Rawhide | 2 | 2 | 7 | 26 | 6 | 2 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | 27 | 25 | 127 | 550 | 129 | 56 | 13 | 18.4% | 11.6% | 3.3% | 4.66 | 4.80 | +0.7 |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | 26 | 25 | 118 | 521 | 104 | 74 | 13 | 16.2% | 15.6% | 1.8% | 4.35 | 4.68 | +0.8 |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA | Reno Aces | 28 | 13 | 89 | 411 | 79 | 38 | 20 | 16.0% | 9.6% | 4.4% | 7.41 | 5.38 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 17 | 17 | 93 | 392 | 79 | 40 | 12 | 20.1% | 10.3% | 3.2% | 4.82 | 4.82 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | ARI | 17 | 17 | 93 | 394 | 80 | 40 | 13 | 20.2% | 10.1% | 3.2% | 4.78 | 4.79 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | ARI | 17 | 17 | 91 | 385 | 78 | 38 | 12 | 20.2% | 10.0% | 3.2% | 4.77 | 4.79 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | ARI | 16 | 16 | 89 | 374 | 75 | 37 | 12 | 20.1% | 10.0% | 3.3% | 4.80 | 4.83 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | ARI | 16 | 16 | 86 | 361 | 72 | 36 | 12 | 19.9% | 10.0% | 3.3% | 4.85 | 4.89 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | ARI | 15 | 15 | 82 | 347 | 68 | 35 | 12 | 19.6% | 10.2% | 3.4% | 4.93 | 4.98 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | ARI | 14 | 14 | 78 | 331 | 71 | 32 | 12 | 21.3% | 9.6% | 3.5% | 4.85 | 4.80 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | ARI | 14 | 14 | 74 | 315 | 66 | 31 | 11 | 21.0% | 9.8% | 3.6% | 4.89 | 4.91 | +0.1 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | ARI | 13 | 13 | 70 | 296 | 61 | 30 | 11 | 20.6% | 10.0% | 3.7% | 4.98 | 5.03 | +0.0 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | ARI | 12 | 12 | 66 | 277 | 56 | 28 | 11 | 20.2% | 10.2% | 3.8% | 5.09 | 5.17 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 83 | 65 | 341 | 1508 | 258 | 187 | 45 | 17.1% | 12.4% | 3.0% | 5.17 | 4.87 | +1.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 49 | 38 | 200 | 884 | 151 | 110 | 26 | 17.1% | 12.4% | 3.0% | 5.17 | 4.87 | +1.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jamison Hill (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.82 | 20.1% | 10.3% | 3.2% | — | 4.80 | 20.2% | 10.2% | 273 | -0.02 | — | — | — |
| Roberto Gómez R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.98 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .315 | 5.24 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.26 | 3.98 | 115 | 91 |
| Hector Noesí R 2027 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 250 | 88 |
| Justin De Fratus R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.80 | 18.8% | 8.3% | 2.3% | .325 | 4.62 | 12.4% | 6.9% | 279 | +0.82 | 3.80 | 500 | 87 |
| Lisalverto Bonilla R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.60 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .304 | 4.72 | 15.8% | 3.2% | 11 | +0.12 | 3.22 | 221 | 87 |
| Jared Mortensen R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.42 | 16.9% | 7.8% | 3.2% | .287 | 5.02 | 20.9% | 2.1% | 72 | +0.60 | 4.42 | 200 | 84 |
| Zack Wheeler R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.89 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 4.2% | .327 | 3.06 | 23.0% | 16.8% | 449 | -1.83 | 2.32 | 1,443 | 84 |
| Nestor Molina R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.81 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 3.6% | .304 | 3.61 | 17.0% | 10.2% | 289 | -1.20 | 3.03 | 401 | 84 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2025 · 4.23 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.23 | 16.1% | 8.3% | 2.6% | .309 | 3.32 | 24.1% | 13.4% | 34 | -0.91 | 3.32 | 252 | 83 |
| Bud Norris R 2029 · 4.64 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.64 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 3.8% | .327 | 3.81 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -0.83 | 3.39 | 316 | 83 |
| Jose Pina R 2028 · 4.86 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.86 | 16.9% | 9.2% | 3.7% | .231 | 3.67 | 13.6% | 6.9% | 246 | -1.19 | 3.65 | 424 | 83 |
| Alejandro Martinez R 2025 · 4.43 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.43 | 17.5% | 10.9% | 2.6% | .393 | 4.26 | 9.2% | 3.9% | 53 | -0.17 | 4.26 | 166 | 82 |
| Jacob Turner R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.43 | 14.9% | 8.8% | 2.7% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 340 | 82 |
| Patrick Johnson R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.89 | 17.3% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .286 | 4.13 | 15.7% | 6.4% | 120 | +0.24 | 3.89 | 248 | 82 |
| Tim Atherton R 2024 · 3.77 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.77 | 16.2% | 8.6% | 1.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 101 | 82 |
| Marco Antonio Duarte R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.06 | 15.5% | 9.1% | 2.0% | .306 | 4.65 | 9.0% | -1.2% | 38 | +0.59 | 4.06 | 203 | 82 |
| Noah Davis R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.05 | 18.9% | 9.5% | 2.4% | .368 | 4.33 | 21.5% | 10.4% | 79 | +0.28 | 2.95 | 492 | 82 |
| David Phelps R 2027 · 3.95 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.95 | 16.0% | 6.8% | 2.4% | .299 | 2.78 | 29.9% | 20.6% | 142 | -1.17 | 2.49 | 373 | 82 |
| Josh Roeder R 2025 · 4.72 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.72 | 15.1% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.72 | 175 | 81 |
| Austin Bergner R 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.00 | 22.3% | 13.6% | 3.8% | .325 | 4.04 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 91 | -0.96 | 4.04 | 448 | 81 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2027 · 3.94 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.94 | 22.4% | 6.8% | 3.4% | .324 | 3.78 | 22.0% | 12.8% | 135 | -0.16 | 3.62 | 224 | 80 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2034
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.4M | +0.2 | $0.9M | +$0.5M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.4M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +0.1 | $0.5M | -$0.1M |
| Totals | $5M | $8M | +$3M | ||