Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | A | Visalia Rawhide | 2 | 2 | 7 | 26 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 3.5 | 23.1% | 7.7% | 15.4% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 2.13 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A | Visalia Rawhide | 2 | 2 | 7 | 26 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 3.5 | 23.1% | 7.7% | 15.4% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 2.24 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 27 | 25 | 127 | 550 | 129 | 56 | 13 | 93% | 4.7 | 18.4% | 11.6% | 6.9% | 3.8% | 4.66 | 5.09 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 27 | 25 | 127 | 550 | 129 | 56 | 13 | 93% | 4.7 | 23.5% | 10.2% | 13.3% | 2.4% | 4.66 | 3.72 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | 26 | 25 | 118 | 521 | 104 | 74 | 13 | 96% | 4.5 | 16.2% | 15.6% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 4.35 | 4.44 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | 26 | 25 | 118 | 521 | 104 | 74 | 13 | 96% | 4.5 | 20.0% | 14.2% | 5.8% | 2.5% | 4.35 | 4.65 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 13 | 89 | 411 | 79 | 38 | 20 | 46% | 3.2 | 16.0% | 9.6% | 6.4% | 3.8% | 7.41 | 5.06 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 13 | 89 | 411 | 79 | 38 | 20 | 46% | 3.2 | 19.2% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 4.9% | 7.41 | 5.54 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 55 | 28 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.1% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 3.0% | 4.74 | 4.74 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | ARI | 10 | 10 | 63 | 266 | 54 | 27 | 8 | 100% | 6.3 | 20.3% | 10.3% | 9.9% | 3.1% | 4.75 | 4.78 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | ARI | 10 | 10 | 60 | 254 | 51 | 27 | 8 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.3% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 3.3% | 4.81 | 4.88 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | ARI | 9 | 9 | 57 | 239 | 48 | 26 | 8 | 100% | 6.3 | 20.1% | 10.7% | 9.4% | 3.4% | 4.93 | 5.03 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | ARI | 4 | 4 | 24 | 101 | 21 | 10 | 3 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.3% | 10.3% | 9.9% | 3.1% | 4.75 | 4.78 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | ARI | 6 | 6 | 34 | 144 | 29 | 15 | 5 | 100% | 5.7 | 20.3% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 3.3% | 4.81 | 4.88 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | ARI | 6 | 6 | 39 | 165 | 33 | 18 | 6 | 100% | 6.5 | 20.1% | 10.7% | 9.4% | 3.4% | 4.93 | 5.03 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 16 | 16 | 96 | 404 | 82 | 43 | 13 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.2% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 3.3% | 4.84 | 4.54 | +0.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 171 | 90 | 27 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.2% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 3.3% | 4.84 | 4.54 | +2.0 | ||
| Career | — | 83 | 65 | 341 | 1508 | 258 | 187 | 43 | 78% | 4.1 | 17.1% | 12.4% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 5.17 | 4.80 | +2.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 49 | 38 | 200 | 884 | 151 | 109 | 25 | 78% | 4.1 | 17.1% | 12.4% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 5.17 | 4.80 | +1.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jamison Hill (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.74 | 20.1% | 10.3% | 3.0% | — | 4.89 | 20.2% | 9.7% | 180 | +0.15 | — | — | — |
| Hector Noesí R 2027 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 83 |
| Alejandro Martinez R 2025 · 4.24 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.24 | 17.5% | 10.9% | 2.3% | .393 | 4.44 | 9.2% | 3.9% | 53 | +0.20 | 4.24 | 166 | 82 |
| Antonio Guzman R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.60 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 1.2% | .328 | 3.63 | 20.6% | 11.3% | 170 | +0.03 | 3.22 | 254 | 81 |
| Burch Smith R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.94 | 19.5% | 12.6% | 1.6% | .234 | 4.41 | 22.2% | 10.5% | 192 | +0.47 | 3.39 | 382 | 80 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2025 · 4.15 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.15 | 18.9% | 7.9% | 3.0% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.87 | 247 | 79 |
| Justin Topa R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.05 | 15.1% | 7.9% | 2.2% | .374 | 2.66 | 19.2% | 12.6% | 40 | -1.39 | 2.66 | 259 | 76 |
| Kyle Brnovich R 2026 · 5.49 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.49 | 19.6% | 13.6% | 4.2% | .330 | 6.70 | 15.2% | 5.2% | 69 | +1.21 | 3.69 | 333 | 75 |
| Dylan Cumming R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.71 | 16.4% | 7.6% | 3.7% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 366 | 75 |
| Austin Bergner R 2026 · 5.40 FIP | 27 | SP | 5.40 | 22.3% | 13.6% | 4.5% | .325 | 4.40 | 18.7% | 7.0% | 107 | -1.00 | 4.00 | 464 | 75 |
| David Phelps R 2027 · 3.94 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.94 | 16.0% | 6.8% | 2.4% | .299 | 2.83 | 29.9% | 20.6% | 142 | -1.11 | 2.51 | 373 | 75 |
| Jared Mortensen R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.44 | 16.9% | 7.8% | 3.2% | .287 | 4.90 | 20.9% | 2.1% | 72 | +0.46 | 4.44 | 200 | 75 |
| Jacob Turner R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.69 | 14.9% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 340 | 75 |
| Kumar Rocker R 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.16 | 20.5% | 8.7% | 3.1% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.95 | 230 | 74 |
| Nestor Molina R 2026 · 5.13 FIP | 27 | SP | 5.13 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 4.2% | .304 | 3.57 | 17.0% | 10.2% | 289 | -1.56 | 3.07 | 401 | 74 |
| Raynel Espinal R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.76 | 22.4% | 7.1% | 3.0% | .313 | 3.72 | 22.3% | 12.4% | 224 | -0.04 | 2.53 | 507 | 74 |
| Kris Medlen R 2028 · 4.77 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.77 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 4.0% | .261 | 5.16 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 173 | +0.39 | 4.66 | 261 | 74 |
| Bryce Morrow R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.48 | 12.8% | 7.9% | 2.7% | .316 | 5.59 | 10.1% | -0.2% | 50 | +1.11 | 4.48 | 125 | 74 |
| Dawson Netz R 2024 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.42 | 23.3% | 10.7% | 3.5% | .225 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 102 | 74 |
| Luke Irvine R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.17 | 13.4% | 9.8% | 1.8% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.17 | 104 | 74 |
| Markus Solbach R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.61 | 16.9% | 6.1% | 2.1% | .311 | 4.76 | 17.1% | 9.1% | 111 | +1.15 | 3.25 | 391 | 73 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 61 | 20.2% | 10.4% | 1.24 | 4.80 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |