Austin Brice
P
St. Paul Saints
+0.2
WAR
Age 34
RHP
6'4" / 238 lbs
AAA
peak 0.2 · 2026
ERA4.43
FIP4.43
xFIP4.29
SIERA4.31
K%23.0%
BB%10.0%
K-BB%13.0%
IP30
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2026
K†5555
FB Velo
p2392.6
Whiff%
p1720.7%
K%
p2718.8%
xwOBA vs
p180.350
SL+1.9
FB-0.6
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 23 | AA | Jacksonville Suns | 25 | 25 | 125 | 556 | 127 | 69 | 11 | 18.5% | 13.7% | 2.4% | 4.67 | 4.61 | +1.0 |
| 2016 | 24 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 47 | 13 | 116 | 471 | 103 | 34 | 8 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 1.5% | 3.26 | 3.45 | +2.4 |
| 2017 | 25 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 40 | 0 | 57 | 244 | 50 | 15 | 6 | 19.3% | 6.2% | 2.4% | 4.26 | 3.57 | +0.9 |
| 2018 | 26 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 50 | 0 | 61 | 249 | 56 | 14 | 11 | 21.3% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 4.45 | 4.24 | +0.5 |
| 2019 | 27 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 40 | 1 | 50 | 219 | 55 | 16 | 7 | 23.1% | 8.0% | 3.5% | 3.22 | 4.08 | +0.5 |
| 2020 | 28 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 21 | 1 | 20 | 87 | 25 | 13 | 3 | 28.7% | 14.9% | 3.8% | 5.95 | 4.64 | +0.1 |
| 2021 | 29 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 39 | 2 | 47 | 206 | 46 | 21 | 6 | 20.3% | 10.5% | 2.7% | 4.24 | 4.20 | +0.4 |
| 2022 | 30 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 41 | 2 | 50 | 226 | 58 | 17 | 7 | 23.4% | 7.4% | 3.8% | 5.36 | 4.16 | +0.5 |
| 2023 | 31 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | 37 | 0 | 40 | 190 | 43 | 27 | 4 | 19.9% | 14.9% | 2.3% | 6.92 | 4.56 | +0.2 |
| 2024 | 32 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | 17 | 0 | 15 | 88 | 29 | 22 | 0 | — | — | — | 12.00 | — | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 34 | MLB | MIA | 30 | — | 30 | 128 | 29 | 13 | 4 | 22.5% | 10.0% | 3.0% | 4.42 | 4.47 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 35 | MLB | MIA | 29 | — | 29 | 121 | 26 | 12 | 4 | 21.7% | 10.2% | 3.1% | 4.54 | 4.62 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 357 | 44 | 581 | 2536 | 523 | 263 | 66 | 20.6% | 10.4% | 2.6% | 4.61 | 4.10 | +7.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 123 | 15 | 200 | 872 | 180 | 90 | 23 | 20.6% | 10.4% | 2.6% | 4.61 | 4.10 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Austin Brice (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.47 | 22.5% | 10.0% | 3.0% | — | 4.62 | 21.7% | 11.5% | 29 | +0.15 | — | — | — |
| Jim Johnson R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.96 | 23.8% | 8.6% | 3.2% | .309 | 4.52 | 16.8% | 9.0% | 63 | +0.56 | 2.57 | 251 | 82 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2027 · 3.50 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.50 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.6% | .290 | 3.90 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.40 | 3.50 | 219 | 80 |
| Josh Lueke R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.14 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 3.6% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.32 | 107 | 80 |
| Diego Moreno R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.75 | 18.6% | 9.4% | 3.7% | .232 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.31 | 187 | 79 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.81 | 22.6% | 9.3% | 2.6% | .230 | 4.45 | 19.4% | 12.7% | 78 | +0.64 | 3.81 | 208 | 79 |
| Manny Acosta R 2027 · 4.09 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.09 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .273 | 3.07 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -1.02 | 3.07 | 102 | 79 |
| Zack Segovia R 2025 · 3.37 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.37 | 20.2% | 5.9% | 2.2% | .312 | 4.52 | 17.6% | 4.0% | 57 | +1.15 | 3.37 | 144 | 79 |
| Pedro Strop R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.10 | 27.5% | 10.7% | 3.6% | .260 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.58 | 277 | 78 |
| Mark Serrano R 2025 · 5.25 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.25 | 20.2% | 7.9% | 5.2% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 120 | 78 |
| Mark Lowe R 2026 · 5.01 FIP | 34 | SU | 5.01 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 3.7% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 153 | 78 |
| Francisco Rodríguez R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.72 | 22.1% | 8.5% | 2.6% | .248 | 6.54 | 19.5% | 11.0% | 25 | +2.82 | 2.87 | 141 | 77 |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2024 · 4.60 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.60 | 23.2% | 14.2% | 3.0% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.33 | 221 | 77 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2025 · 4.98 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.98 | 23.4% | 10.7% | 4.6% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 122 | 77 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.39 | 18.3% | 6.6% | 3.6% | .282 | 4.11 | 18.6% | 12.0% | 67 | -0.28 | 4.11 | 186 | 76 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.94 | 18.1% | 12.9% | 1.3% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.48 | 147 | 76 |
| Rafael Dolis R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.60 | 19.9% | 11.9% | 1.2% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.80 | 162 | 76 |
| Ramon E Ramirez R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.63 | 18.4% | 6.0% | 2.4% | .262 | 3.50 | 14.0% | 8.2% | 40 | -0.13 | 2.37 | 140 | 75 |
| Carlos Torres R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.51 | 17.4% | 9.9% | 3.0% | .304 | 3.66 | 19.8% | 11.6% | 113 | -0.85 | 2.89 | 326 | 75 |
| Blake Parker R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.42 | 25.5% | 8.6% | 4.3% | .258 | 4.20 | 24.9% | 15.4% | 87 | -0.22 | 2.41 | 339 | 75 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.18 | 23.7% | 9.9% | 3.3% | .253 | 5.14 | 25.0% | 13.8% | 32 | +0.96 | 3.38 | 212 | 75 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.