Austin Brice
P
St. Paul Saints
Age 34
RHP
6'4" / 238 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION21 proj IP · Marcel + aging
ERA4.42
FIP4.47
xFIP4.29
SIERA4.31
K%22.5%
BB%10.0%
K-BB%12.5%
IP21
K†5555
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
FB Velo
p2392.6
Whiff%
p1720.7%
K%
p2718.8%
xwOBA vs
p180.350
SL+1.9
FB-0.6
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.4 (SP) / 4.55 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 23 | AA | Jacksonville Suns | 25 | 25 | 125 | 556 | 127 | 69 | 11 | 18.5% | 13.7% | 2.5% | 4.67 | 4.64 | +1.1 |
| 2016 | 24 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 47 | 13 | 116 | 471 | 103 | 34 | 8 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 1.2% | 3.26 | 3.30 | +2.8 |
| 2017 | 25 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 40 | 0 | 57 | 244 | 50 | 15 | 6 | 19.3% | 6.2% | 2.5% | 4.26 | 3.61 | +0.6 |
| 2018 | 26 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 50 | 0 | 61 | 249 | 56 | 14 | 11 | 21.3% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 4.45 | 4.41 | +0.1 |
| 2019 | 27 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 40 | 1 | 50 | 219 | 55 | 16 | 7 | 23.1% | 8.0% | 3.7% | 3.22 | 4.21 | +0.2 |
| 2020 | 28 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 21 | 1 | 20 | 87 | 25 | 13 | 3 | 28.7% | 14.9% | 3.4% | 5.95 | 4.44 | +0.0 |
| 2021 | 29 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 39 | 2 | 47 | 206 | 46 | 21 | 6 | 20.3% | 10.5% | 2.3% | 4.24 | 3.96 | +0.3 |
| 2022 | 30 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 41 | 2 | 50 | 226 | 58 | 17 | 7 | 23.4% | 7.4% | 3.8% | 5.36 | 4.13 | +0.2 |
| 2023 | 31 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | 37 | 0 | 40 | 190 | 43 | 27 | 4 | 19.9% | 14.9% | 2.3% | 6.92 | 4.56 | -0.0 |
| 2024 | 32 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | 17 | 0 | 15 | 88 | 29 | 22 | 0 | 33.0% | 25.0% | 0.0% | 12.00 | 3.48 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 34 | MLB | MIN | 21 | — | 21 | 90 | 20 | 9 | 3 | 22.5% | 10.0% | 3.0% | 4.42 | 4.47 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 35 | MLB | MIN | 20 | — | 20 | 84 | 18 | 9 | 3 | 21.5% | 10.5% | 3.3% | 4.65 | 4.81 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 357 | 44 | 581 | 2536 | 523 | 263 | 65 | 20.6% | 10.4% | 2.6% | 4.61 | 4.08 | +9.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 123 | 15 | 200 | 872 | 180 | 90 | 22 | 20.6% | 10.4% | 2.6% | 4.61 | 4.08 | +3.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Austin Brice (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.47 | 22.5% | 10.0% | 3.0% | — | 4.81 | 21.5% | 11.0% | 20 | +0.34 | — | — | — |
| Ubaldo Jiménez R 2025 · 5.02 FIP | 33 | SP | 5.02 | 21.5% | 9.0% | 4.7% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.67 | 469 | 81 |
| Aníbal Sánchez R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.49 | 24.4% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .252 | 4.27 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 219 | +0.78 | 3.49 | 869 | 76 |
| Jake Peavy R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.09 | 17.3% | 5.7% | 3.2% | .278 | 4.36 | 19.6% | 12.9% | 119 | +0.27 | 4.09 | 262 | 74 |
| Marco Estrada R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.48 | 21.8% | 8.8% | 3.9% | .294 | 5.50 | 15.6% | 7.6% | 167 | +1.02 | 4.04 | 710 | 73 |
| Jason Hammel R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.20 | 18.0% | 5.7% | 3.5% | .312 | 4.34 | 15.8% | 9.8% | 127 | +0.14 | 3.43 | 645 | 71 |
| Tomoyuki Sugano R 2027 · 4.91 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.91 | 15.7% | 5.0% | 4.5% | .279 | 5.13 | 13.6% | 6.6% | 68 | +0.22 | 4.91 | 225 | 71 |
| Merrill Kelly R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.58 | 25.9% | 9.6% | 2.6% | .276 | 4.15 | 20.2% | 13.4% | 322 | +0.57 | 3.54 | 1,073 | 70 |
| Edwin Jackson R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.28 | 17.9% | 9.8% | 2.6% | .254 | 7.23 | 15.1% | 4.8% | 89 | +2.95 | 3.69 | 521 | 70 |
| Kyle Lohse R 2028 · 4.98 FIP | 36 | SP | 4.98 | 16.2% | 6.0% | 4.5% | .309 | 5.53 | 14.8% | 8.8% | 59 | +0.55 | 4.98 | 211 | 70 |
| Ricky Nolasco R 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.98 | 18.2% | 7.0% | 4.6% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.21 | 425 | 70 |
| Kyle Davies R 2023 · 3.72 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.72 | 13.8% | 6.1% | 1.8% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.72 | 153 | 69 |
| Alfredo Simon R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.69 | 14.3% | 8.2% | 3.2% | .289 | 5.63 | 12.3% | 2.7% | 74 | +0.94 | 4.69 | 261 | 69 |
| Justin Verlander R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.58 | 25.8% | 8.0% | 3.0% | .267 | 2.70 | 35.1% | 30.4% | 437 | -0.88 | 2.24 | 1,584 | 68 |
| Matt Buschmann R 2024 · 4.71 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.71 | 12.8% | 8.4% | 3.0% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.92 | 277 | 68 |
| Hector Noesí R 2024 · 4.92 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.92 | 22.3% | 7.2% | 5.1% | .271 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 68 |
| Mike Fiers R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.87 | 16.7% | 7.0% | 4.2% | .250 | 4.69 | 14.4% | 8.2% | 59 | -0.18 | 3.72 | 918 | 67 |
| Aaron Harang R 2029 · 4.54 FIP | 37 | SP | 4.54 | 14.4% | 6.4% | 3.4% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.54 | 172 | 66 |
| James Shields R 2026 · 5.51 FIP | 34 | SP | 5.51 | 16.4% | 9.6% | 4.7% | .296 | 4.91 | 18.6% | 9.5% | 336 | -0.60 | 4.36 | 720 | 66 |
| Jeremy Guthrie R 2028 · 5.42 FIP | 36 | SP | 5.42 | 12.7% | 6.5% | 4.7% | .309 | 5.00 | 11.6% | 3.0% | 87 | -0.42 | 5.00 | 235 | 65 |
| John Lackey R 2028 · 3.42 FIP | 36 | SP | 3.42 | 19.5% | 5.4% | 2.4% | .291 | 4.21 | 22.3% | 15.4% | 359 | +0.79 | 3.42 | 577 | 65 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.