Josh Grosz
P
Amarillo Sod Poodles
Age 23
RHP
6'4" / 199 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 1.0 · 2028
2026 ROS PROJECTION31 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133123vR 114
ERA5.04
FIP5.04
K%19.2%
BB%11.6%
K-BB%7.6%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 96 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 3 levels | 24 | 23 | 122 | 513 | 131 | 52 | 14 | 96% | 5.1 | 19.2% | 11.7% | 7.5% | 3.4% | 3.85 | 4.85 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 3 levels | 24 | 23 | 122 | 513 | 131 | 52 | 14 | 96% | 5.1 | 25.5% | 10.1% | 15.4% | 2.7% | 3.85 | 3.72 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Spokane Indians | 23 | 22 | 125 | 535 | 135 | 55 | 14 | 96% | 5.4 | 19.4% | 11.8% | 7.6% | 3.3% | 4.67 | 4.76 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Spokane Indians | 23 | 22 | 125 | 535 | 135 | 55 | 14 | 96% | 5.4 | 25.2% | 10.3% | 15.0% | 2.6% | 4.67 | 3.71 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | 9 | 8 | 31 | 133 | 46 | 17 | 3 | 89% | 3.4 | 28.0% | 14.1% | 14.0% | 2.7% | 4.35 | 4.00 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | ARI | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 52 | 32 | 9 | 100% | 5.4 | 19.2% | 11.6% | 7.6% | 3.1% | 5.04 | 5.04 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | ARI | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 19.2% | 11.6% | 7.6% | 3.2% | 5.08 | 5.08 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 96 | 407 | 98 | 49 | 12 | — | — | 24.2% | 12.0% | 12.2% | 2.8% | 4.82 | 4.70 | +0.7 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 19.2% | 11.6% | 7.6% | 3.2% | 5.08 | 4.70 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | ARI | 27 | 27 | 149 | 629 | 127 | 66 | 19 | 100% | 5.5 | 20.3% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 3.1% | 4.86 | 4.79 | +1.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | ARI | 26 | 26 | 151 | 637 | 133 | 63 | 19 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.9% | 9.8% | 11.1% | 3.1% | 4.71 | 4.64 | +1.3 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | ARI | 25 | 25 | 151 | 637 | 135 | 62 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.1% | 9.7% | 11.5% | 3.1% | 4.63 | 4.60 | +1.4 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 25 | 25 | 148 | 627 | 133 | 61 | 19 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.2% | 9.7% | 11.5% | 3.1% | 4.62 | 4.62 | +1.4 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | ARI | 24 | 24 | 144 | 608 | 128 | 60 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.0% | 9.9% | 11.2% | 3.2% | 4.67 | 4.71 | +1.2 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | ARI | 23 | 23 | 138 | 581 | 121 | 59 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.8% | 10.1% | 10.7% | 3.4% | 4.77 | 4.84 | +0.9 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | ARI | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 56 | 29 | 9 | 100% | 5.4 | 20.3% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 3.1% | 4.90 | 4.83 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | ARI | 17 | 17 | 101 | 426 | 89 | 42 | 13 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.9% | 9.8% | 11.1% | 3.1% | 4.75 | 4.68 | +0.9 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | ARI | 20 | 20 | 120 | 507 | 107 | 49 | 16 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.1% | 9.7% | 11.5% | 3.1% | 4.67 | 4.64 | +1.1 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 21 | 21 | 127 | 536 | 113 | 52 | 17 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.2% | 9.7% | 11.5% | 3.2% | 4.66 | 4.66 | +1.1 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | ARI | 21 | 21 | 128 | 540 | 114 | 53 | 18 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.0% | 9.9% | 11.2% | 3.3% | 4.71 | 4.75 | +1.0 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | ARI | 21 | 21 | 125 | 528 | 110 | 53 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.8% | 10.1% | 10.7% | 3.4% | 4.81 | 4.88 | +0.8 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 113 | 113 | 668 | 2819 | 590 | 279 | 91 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.9% | 9.9% | 11.0% | 3.2% | 4.74 | 4.35 | +8.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 177 | 84 | 27 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.9% | 9.9% | 11.0% | 3.2% | 4.74 | 4.35 | +2.4 | ||
| Career | — | 56 | 53 | 278 | 1181 | 240 | 142 | 39 | 95% | 5.0 | 20.3% | 12.0% | 8.3% | 3.3% | 4.27 | 4.71 | +2.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 40 | 38 | 200 | 850 | 172 | 102 | 28 | 95% | 5.0 | 20.3% | 12.0% | 8.3% | 3.3% | 4.27 | 4.71 | +1.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Josh Grosz (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.04 | 19.2% | 11.6% | 3.1% | — | 4.68 | 20.8% | 10.8% | 450 | -0.36 | — | — | — |
| Jamison Hill R 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.09 | 18.4% | 11.6% | 3.8% | .280 | 4.70 | 16.1% | 3.0% | 202 | -0.39 | 4.44 | 326 | 91 |
| Trent Baker R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.24 | 19.3% | 10.7% | 2.6% | .315 | 3.90 | 18.1% | 9.4% | 296 | -0.34 | 3.74 | 459 | 90 |
| Wyatt Marks R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.29 | 21.3% | 10.7% | 3.0% | .301 | 6.20 | 9.5% | -10.4% | 18 | +1.91 | 4.29 | 152 | 89 |
| Tony Dibrell R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.59 | 16.0% | 11.7% | 2.5% | .302 | 5.79 | 20.5% | 6.2% | 58 | +1.20 | 4.21 | 347 | 87 |
| Austin Love R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.19 | 20.6% | 10.6% | 2.7% | .358 | 3.51 | 22.1% | 9.7% | 56 | -0.68 | 3.51 | 220 | 87 |
| Carlos Pimentel R 2028 · 4.56 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.56 | 17.1% | 11.6% | 2.6% | .266 | 4.17 | 15.8% | 5.8% | 158 | -0.39 | 4.14 | 301 | 86 |
| Jordan Jackson R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.24 | 16.8% | 9.7% | 2.4% | .323 | 5.46 | 13.1% | 1.7% | 74 | +1.22 | 4.24 | 193 | 86 |
| Austin Brice R 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.64 | 18.5% | 13.7% | 2.5% | .295 | 3.68 | 19.0% | 12.0% | 222 | -0.96 | 3.30 | 542 | 86 |
| Roman Angelo R 2027 · 4.19 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.19 | 22.6% | 11.4% | 2.8% | .291 | 5.46 | 18.2% | 4.6% | 163 | +1.27 | 4.19 | 285 | 85 |
| Adam Hill R 2025 · 4.96 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.96 | 15.6% | 12.6% | 2.9% | .297 | 6.36 | 19.6% | 8.9% | 91 | +1.40 | 4.96 | 213 | 85 |
| Keyvius Sampson R 2027 · 4.11 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.11 | 16.9% | 12.2% | 1.6% | .314 | 4.66 | 21.2% | 7.9% | 181 | +0.55 | 4.11 | 316 | 85 |
| Jonathan Cannon R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.71 | 16.1% | 8.5% | 3.5% | .311 | 4.59 | 17.5% | 8.7% | 364 | -0.12 | 4.33 | 485 | 85 |
| R.J. Gordon R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.24 | 21.5% | 9.5% | 3.2% | .295 | 4.91 | 13.7% | 2.0% | 38 | +0.67 | 4.24 | 167 | 84 |
| Brandon Bielak R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.41 | 20.5% | 10.6% | 3.1% | .267 | 4.03 | 20.4% | 10.0% | 200 | -0.38 | 3.19 | 695 | 84 |
| Blade Tidwell R 2026 · 4.97 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.97 | 19.3% | 12.7% | 3.5% | .274 | 4.14 | 22.4% | 12.1% | 169 | -0.83 | 4.07 | 408 | 84 |
| Jeff Thompson R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.57 | 15.2% | 10.9% | 2.5% | .306 | 4.28 | 15.8% | 1.0% | 202 | -0.29 | 3.46 | 321 | 84 |
| Trystan Vrieling R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.99 | 17.3% | 8.2% | 2.4% | .297 | 4.91 | 17.2% | 3.9% | 150 | +0.92 | 3.99 | 297 | 84 |
| Tyler Woessner R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.07 | 16.4% | 11.8% | 1.6% | .307 | 5.57 | 18.0% | 3.0% | 76 | +1.50 | 4.07 | 197 | 83 |
| Mike Foltynewicz R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.57 | 20.7% | 8.8% | 3.8% | .332 | 3.64 | 23.3% | 15.1% | 487 | -0.93 | 3.17 | 938 | 83 |
| John West R 2026 · 5.24 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.24 | 17.1% | 10.9% | 4.0% | .284 | 5.06 | 14.0% | -1.1% | 61 | -0.18 | 5.06 | 161 | 83 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 7 | 147 | 20.6% | 10.2% | 1.21 | 4.76 |
| Julio Teheran ('23) | 7 | 147 | 20.4% | 8.8% | 1.34 | 4.12 |
| Andrew Cashner ('19) | 5 | 157 | 16.7% | 9.2% | 1.11 | 4.54 |
| Wade Miley ('23) | 8 | 136 | 18.2% | 8.5% | 1.07 | 4.20 |
| Félix Hernández ('19) | 5 | 134 | 20.0% | 8.1% | 1.39 | 4.48 |
| Marco Estrada ('19) | 5 | 142 | 19.6% | 8.3% | 1.44 | 4.33 |
| Jake Odorizzi ('22) | 7 | 148 | 22.1% | 8.1% | 1.24 | 3.92 |