Josh Grosz — OGILVIE

Josh Grosz P Amarillo Sod Poodles

Age 23 RHP 6'4" / 199 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.1 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION58 act + 12 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129121vR 113

ERA5.05

FIP5.05

K%19.2%

BB%11.6%

K-BB%7.5%

ROS IP12

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$1M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4550

CMD3550

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Arb-1	$3M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-2	$4M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$4M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$5M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	23	122	513	131	52	14	96%	5.1	19.2%	11.7%	7.5%	3.4%	3.85	4.83	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	23	122	513	131	52	14	96%	5.1	19.2%	11.7%	7.5%	3.4%	3.85	4.83	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	24	23	122	513	131	52	14	96%	5.1	25.5%	10.1%	15.4%	2.7%	3.85	3.72	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	23	22	125	535	135	55	14	96%	5.4	19.4%	11.8%	7.6%	3.3%	4.67	4.75	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	23	22	125	535	135	55	14	96%	5.4	19.4%	11.8%	7.6%	3.3%	4.67	4.75	—
2025	22	A+ RAW	Spokane Indians	23	22	125	535	135	55	14	96%	5.4	25.2%	10.3%	15.0%	2.6%	4.67	3.71	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	25	8	58	251	81	36	11	32%	2.3	26.1%	15.8%	10.4%	5.3%	5.31	5.78	—
YTD	23	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	25	8	58	251	81	36	11	32%	2.3	26.1%	15.8%	10.4%	5.3%	5.31	5.78	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	AA RAW	ARI	25	8	58	251	81	36	11	32%	2.3	32.3%	14.3%	17.9%	4.4%	5.31	4.60	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	ARI	12	0	12	52	10	6	2	0%	1.0	19.2%	11.6%	7.5%	3.1%	5.05	5.05	-0.1
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	ARI	—	—	70	303	91	42	13	—	—	30.0%	13.9%	16.2%	4.2%	5.26	5.65	-0.8
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	ARI	25	25	149	629	127	66	19	100%	6.0	20.3%	10.5%	9.7%	3.1%	4.86	4.79	+0.2
2028	25	MLB MLE	ARI	25	25	151	637	133	63	19	100%	6.0	20.9%	9.9%	11.0%	3.1%	4.71	4.64	+0.5
2029	26	MLB MLE	ARI	25	25	151	637	135	62	19	100%	6.0	21.1%	9.7%	11.4%	3.1%	4.64	4.60	+0.5
2030	27	MLB MLE	ARI	25	25	148	627	133	61	19	100%	5.9	21.2%	9.7%	11.4%	3.1%	4.63	4.63	+0.5
2031	28	MLB MLE	ARI	24	24	144	608	128	60	19	100%	6.0	21.0%	9.9%	11.2%	3.2%	4.68	4.71	+0.3
2032	29	MLB MLE	ARI	23	23	138	581	121	59	19	100%	6.0	20.8%	10.1%	10.7%	3.4%	4.78	4.84	+0.1
2033	30	MLB MLE	ARI	22	22	129	546	112	57	19	100%	5.9	20.4%	10.4%	10.0%	3.5%	4.92	5.02	-0.2
2034	31	MLB MLE	ARI	20	20	120	509	102	55	19	100%	6.0	20.1%	10.8%	9.3%	3.8%	5.10	5.22	-0.4
2027	24	MLB CTX	ARI	11	11	65	274	56	29	8	100%	5.9	20.3%	10.5%	9.7%	2.9%	4.77	4.70	+0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	ARI	17	17	101	426	89	42	12	100%	5.9	20.9%	9.9%	11.0%	2.9%	4.62	4.55	+0.3
2029	26	MLB CTX	ARI	20	20	120	507	107	49	15	100%	6.0	21.1%	9.7%	11.4%	2.9%	4.55	4.51	+0.4
2030	27	MLB CTX	ARI	21	21	127	536	113	52	16	100%	6.0	21.2%	9.7%	11.4%	2.9%	4.54	4.54	+0.4
2031	28	MLB CTX	ARI	21	21	128	540	114	53	16	100%	6.1	21.0%	9.9%	11.2%	3.0%	4.58	4.61	+0.3
2032	29	MLB CTX	ARI	21	21	125	528	110	53	17	100%	6.0	20.8%	10.1%	10.7%	3.2%	4.68	4.74	+0.1
2033	30	MLB CTX	ARI	20	20	119	502	103	52	17	100%	6.0	20.4%	10.4%	10.0%	3.4%	4.81	4.91	-0.2
2034	31	MLB CTX	ARI	19	19	112	473	95	51	17	100%	5.9	20.1%	10.8%	9.3%	3.6%	4.99	5.11	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		150	150	898	3791	787	383	117	100%	6.0	20.8%	10.1%	10.7%	3.1%	4.68	4.33	+6.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	175	85	26	100%	6.0	20.8%	10.1%	10.7%	3.1%	4.68	4.33	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		72	53	305	1299	268	163	48	74%	4.2	20.6%	12.5%	8.1%	3.7%	4.46	4.98	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		47	35	200	853	176	107	32	74%	4.2	20.6%	12.5%	8.1%	3.7%	4.46	4.98	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Josh Grosz (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.05	19.2%	11.6%	3.1%	—	4.68	20.8%	10.7%	450	-0.37	—	—	—
Angel Ventura R 2016 · 4.28 FIP	23	SP-	4.28	17.9%	10.9%	2.4%	.285	4.66	14.8%	4.8%	153	+0.38	3.42	393	84
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2015 · 5.06 FIP	24	SP-	5.06	18.8%	10.2%	4.1%	.327	4.01	23.2%	13.0%	155	-1.05	2.64	315	83
Hunter Wood R 2017 · 4.45 FIP	23	SP-	4.45	18.5%	9.1%	3.2%	.307	3.71	25.5%	18.2%	140	-0.74	2.89	483	83
Kyle Lloyd R 2015 · 4.03 FIP	24	SP-	4.03	18.3%	8.1%	2.7%	.327	3.80	17.3%	8.9%	324	-0.23	3.50	572	83
Chase Cohen R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	22	SP-	4.69	15.8%	13.0%	2.3%	.317	4.22	22.1%	9.2%	85	-0.47	3.52	263	82
Devereaux Harrison R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	17.6%	11.3%	3.6%	.252	4.76	16.6%	4.4%	294	-0.28	4.43	388	81
Buck Farmer R 2015 · 4.41 FIP	24	SP-	4.41	16.4%	7.4%	3.2%	.307	4.01	19.6%	10.9%	370	-0.40	3.16	907	81
Matt Ruppenthal R 2019 · 4.50 FIP	23	SP-	4.50	19.1%	14.3%	2.2%	.290	4.32	21.4%	6.5%	143	-0.18	3.74	283	80
Nolan DeVos R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	22	SP-	4.21	21.1%	14.0%	2.0%	.302	5.66	19.0%	8.3%	111	+1.45	4.21	210	80
Kyle Bradish R 2019 · 4.56 FIP	22	SP-	4.56	20.8%	13.7%	2.7%	.309	3.84	24.1%	14.7%	238	-0.72	2.20	750	80
Jimmy Endersby R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP-	4.29	20.9%	14.1%	2.1%	.310	5.73	16.1%	4.0%	225	+1.44	2.86	357	80
Jacob Turner R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	25	SP-	4.29	15.9%	7.8%	2.8%	.338	4.63	15.0%	5.3%	209	+0.34	4.29	340	80
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.32	22.2%	14.8%	121	+0.13	3.16	258	80
Johnathan Harmon R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP-	4.30	17.8%	10.2%	2.6%	.293	5.14	15.1%	6.3%	193	+0.84	3.52	282	80
Joey Mancini R 2023 · 4.22 FIP	23	SP-	4.22	18.1%	10.0%	2.5%	.354	4.40	16.6%	6.3%	296	+0.18	3.64	391	79
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	79
Trenton Toplikar R 2019 · 4.32 FIP	23	SP-	4.32	14.8%	10.1%	2.2%	.248	5.39	16.5%	6.4%	123	+1.07	4.32	232	79
Nick Hull R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	17.2%	12.1%	2.0%	.251	4.84	17.7%	6.3%	200	+0.58	4.26	292	79
Buddy Borden R 2015 · 4.92 FIP	23	SP-	4.92	13.8%	12.4%	2.6%	.257	4.52	14.3%	-1.0%	115	-0.40	4.05	242	79
Peter Solomon R 2021 · 4.71 FIP	24	SP-	4.71	22.6%	10.8%	3.9%	.283	5.55	17.2%	6.1%	286	+0.84	2.86	516	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.4	142	20.6%	10.3%	1.25	4.81
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32