Josh Grosz

P Amarillo Sod Poodles

Age 24 RHP 6'4" / 199 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.6 · 2029

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP35OGV rank#784ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	MIX3 levels	24	23	122	3.85	3.72	25.5%	10.1%	—	K 19.2% · BB 11.7% · FIP 4.83
2025	22	A+COL	23	22	125	4.67	3.71	25.2%	10.3%	—	K 19.4% · BB 11.8% · FIP 4.75
2026	23	AAARI	25	8	58	5.31	4.64	32.3%	14.3%	—	K 26.1% · BB 15.8% · FIP 5.78
2027PROJ	24	MLBARI	1	1	3	5.16	5.16	22.7%	13.2%	0.0
2028PROJ32% MLB	25	MLBARI	6	6	38	4.88	4.82	23.0%	11.8%	0.2
2029PROJ52% MLB	26	MLBARI	10	10	57	4.78	4.75	23.1%	11.4%	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$1M2032Arb-2$1M2033Arb-3$1.0M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.7 / P90 1.8, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsJose Rafael De Paula (age 24) · Nolan DeVos (age 22) · Peter Solomon (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131123vR 115

ERA5.16

FIP5.16

K%22.7%

BB%13.2%

K-BB%9.5%

Proj IP145

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 145 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$9M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2031	Arb-1	$1M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2032	Arb-2	$1M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.0M
2033	Arb-3	$1.0M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$6M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	23	122	513	131	52	14	96%	5.1	19.2%	11.7%	7.5%	3.4%	3.85	4.83	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	23	122	513	131	52	14	96%	5.1	19.2%	11.7%	7.5%	3.4%	3.85	4.83	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	24	23	122	513	131	52	14	96%	5.1	25.5%	10.1%	15.4%	2.7%	3.85	3.72	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	23	22	125	535	135	55	14	96%	5.4	19.4%	11.8%	7.6%	3.3%	4.67	4.75	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	23	22	125	535	135	55	14	96%	5.4	19.4%	11.8%	7.6%	3.3%	4.67	4.75	—
2025	22	A+ RAW	Spokane Indians	23	22	125	535	135	55	14	96%	5.4	25.2%	10.3%	15.0%	2.6%	4.67	3.71	—
2026	23	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	25	8	58	251	81	36	11	32%	2.3	26.1%	15.8%	10.4%	5.3%	5.31	5.78	—
2026	23	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	25	8	58	251	81	36	11	32%	2.3	26.1%	15.8%	10.4%	5.3%	5.31	5.78	—
2026	23	AA RAW	Amarillo Sod Poodles	25	8	58	251	81	36	11	32%	2.3	32.3%	14.3%	17.9%	4.4%	5.31	4.64	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	ARI	1	1	3	13	3	2	0	100%	3.0	22.7%	13.2%	9.5%	3.5%	5.16	5.16	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	ARI	20	20	119	501	115	59	17	100%	5.9	23.0%	11.8%	11.2%	3.4%	4.98	4.92	+0.6
2029	26	MLB MLE	ARI	18	18	109	460	106	53	16	100%	6.1	23.1%	11.4%	11.7%	3.4%	4.88	4.85	+0.7
2030	27	MLB MLE	ARI	17	17	104	437	101	49	15	100%	6.1	23.0%	11.3%	11.7%	3.4%	4.85	4.85	+0.6
2031	28	MLB MLE	ARI	16	16	98	413	95	47	15	100%	6.1	22.9%	11.4%	11.5%	3.5%	4.89	4.92	+0.5
2032	29	MLB MLE	ARI	15	15	91	384	87	44	14	100%	6.1	22.6%	11.6%	11.0%	3.7%	4.99	5.05	+0.4
2033	30	MLB MLE	ARI	14	14	82	348	78	41	13	100%	5.9	22.3%	11.9%	10.4%	3.9%	5.14	5.23	+0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	ARI	6	6	38	160	37	19	5	100%	6.3	23.0%	11.8%	11.2%	3.3%	4.88	4.82	+0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	ARI	10	10	57	241	56	27	8	100%	5.7	23.1%	11.4%	11.7%	3.2%	4.78	4.75	+0.4
2030	27	MLB CTX	ARI	11	11	66	279	64	32	9	100%	6.0	23.0%	11.3%	11.7%	3.2%	4.75	4.75	+0.4
2031	28	MLB CTX	ARI	12	12	71	300	69	34	10	100%	5.9	22.9%	11.4%	11.5%	3.3%	4.78	4.81	+0.4
2032	29	MLB CTX	ARI	12	12	70	296	67	34	10	100%	5.8	22.6%	11.6%	11.0%	3.5%	4.88	4.94	+0.3
2033	30	MLB CTX	ARI	11	11	67	283	63	34	10	100%	6.1	22.3%	11.9%	10.4%	3.7%	5.02	5.11	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		61	61	368	1555	354	179	53	100%	6.0	22.8%	11.5%	11.3%	3.4%	4.85	4.49	+3.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	192	97	29	100%	6.0	22.8%	11.5%	11.3%	3.4%	4.85	4.49	+2.1
Career	—	MLE		72	53	305	1299	268	163	48	74%	4.2	20.6%	12.5%	8.1%	3.7%	4.46	4.98	+3.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		47	35	200	853	176	107	32	74%	4.2	20.6%	12.5%	8.1%	3.7%	4.46	4.98	+1.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 58 IPFIP 4.60 → 5.78 (+1.18)K% 32.3% → 26.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.27%	—	×0.810	26.14%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.34%	—	×1.100	15.78%
HR / BF /BF	4.38%	÷1.000	×1.200	5.26%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.60 → 5.78, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Spokane Indians · 125 IPFIP 3.71 → 4.75 (+1.05)K% 25.2% → 19.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.23%	—	×0.770	19.43%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.28%	—	×1.150	11.82%
HR / BF /BF	2.62%	÷0.999	×1.250	3.27%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.71 → 4.75, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ATampa Tarpons · 79 IPFIP 3.27 → 4.56 (+1.28)K% 27.9% → 20.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.94%	—	×0.740	20.68%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.53%	—	×1.180	10.06%
HR / BF /BF	2.65%	÷0.979	×1.300	3.52%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 96).

Result: FIP 3.27 → 4.56, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Hudson Valley Renegades · 39 IPFIP 4.50 → 5.46 (+0.96)K% 20.5% → 15.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.53%	—	×0.770	15.81%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.25%	—	×1.150	15.23%
HR / BF /BF	2.65%	÷1.032	×1.250	3.21%

Result: FIP 4.50 → 5.46, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AASomerset Patriots · 4 IPFIP 5.40 → 6.36 (+0.96)K% 22.7% → 18.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.73%	—	×0.810	18.41%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.64%	—	×1.100	15.00%
HR / BF /BF	4.55%	÷1.027	×1.200	5.31%

Result: FIP 5.40 → 6.36, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Josh Grosz (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.5%	—	4.88	23.0%	11.5%	331	-0.28	—	—	—
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2015 · 5.06 FIP	24	SP-	5.06	18.8%	10.2%	4.1%	.327	4.01	23.2%	13.0%	155	-1.05	2.64	315	80
Nolan DeVos R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	22	SP-	4.21	21.1%	14.0%	2.0%	.302	5.66	19.0%	8.3%	111	+1.45	4.21	210	78
Peter Solomon R 2021 · 4.71 FIP	24	SP-	4.71	22.6%	10.8%	3.9%	.283	5.53	17.5%	6.4%	286	+0.82	2.86	516	78
Derek True R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.95	17.6%	5.9%	73	+0.05	4.50	170	78
Michael Kelly R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	24	SP-	4.22	19.6%	10.9%	2.5%	.297	6.36	14.6%	-9.6%	67	+2.14	2.70	666	78
Matt Ruppenthal R 2019 · 4.50 FIP	23	SP-	4.50	19.1%	14.3%	2.2%	.290	4.32	21.4%	6.5%	143	-0.18	3.74	283	77
Kenten Egbert R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	19.6%	9.6%	2.9%	.257	4.34	10.8%	3.5%	133	+0.08	4.04	231	77
Kyle Lloyd R 2015 · 4.03 FIP	24	SP-	4.03	18.3%	8.1%	2.7%	.327	3.80	17.3%	8.9%	324	-0.23	3.50	572	77
Houston Roth R 2022 · 4.44 FIP	24	SP-	4.44	19.3%	11.2%	2.8%	.306	5.01	21.1%	8.6%	168	+0.57	3.79	406	77
Paxton Schultz R 2022 · 5.27 FIP	24	SP-	5.27	17.5%	12.2%	3.8%	.293	4.31	21.9%	11.8%	274	-0.96	3.83	543	76
Jack Wenninger R 2024 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP-	4.33	20.9%	9.3%	3.3%	.309	4.29	21.1%	11.1%	251	-0.04	3.90	366	76
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	76
Gavin Stone R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	24	SP-	4.43	21.5%	9.3%	3.6%	.309	3.80	20.9%	14.6%	156	-0.63	2.39	500	76
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	76
Shaun Anderson R 2019 · 4.24 FIP	24	SP-	4.24	18.0%	8.3%	2.9%	.317	4.59	19.5%	9.2%	150	+0.35	3.58	880	75
Josh Bostick R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP	4.65	19.3%	11.2%	3.2%	.304	5.40	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.75	4.65	226	75
Logan Evans R 2024 · 4.17 FIP	23	SP-	4.17	17.8%	10.3%	2.3%	.257	4.17	17.9%	10.2%	125	+0.00	4.17	232	75
Zach Fruit R 2024 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	19.3%	14.1%	1.9%	.258	5.03	15.4%	-0.2%	44	+0.74	4.29	151	75
Patrick Reilly R 2024 · 4.96 FIP	22	SP	4.96	23.2%	13.6%	3.8%	.242	5.00	27.8%	20.2%	40	+0.04	4.96	159	75
Carlos Sano R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	25	SP-	4.82	17.6%	11.2%	3.3%	.282	9.22	19.7%	7.1%	18	+4.40	4.82	105	74

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.7	107	22.8%	11.9%	1.37	4.99
Ken Kravec ('75-'82, 5 WAR*)	4.3	123	23.6%*	10.7%*	1.11*	4.73*
Bill Stoneman ('67-'74, 7 WAR*)	6.2	155	22.8%*	11.1%*	1.25*	4.75*
Jeff Robinson ('87-'92, 0 WAR*)	3.5	118	18.3%*	10.9%*	1.38*	5.14*
John Maine ('13)	3.0	99	19.5%	10.5%	1.23	4.45
Matt Beech ('98)	1.5	98	20.2%	10.0%	1.59	5.37
Kazuhisa Ishii ('02-'05, 1 WAR*)	2.8	141	19.8%*	13.6%*	1.14*	4.72*