Josh Grosz — OGILVIE

Josh Grosz P Amarillo Sod Poodles

+0.7 WAR

Age 23 RHP 6'4" / 199 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.6 · 2030

ERA4.80

FIP4.80

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%20.9%

BB%10.8%

K-BB%10.1%

IP120

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.6peak

2030

K†5055

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2024	21	AA	Somerset Patriots	24	23	122	513	131	52	14	19.2%	11.7%	3.4%	3.85	4.83	+0.6
2025	22	A+	Spokane Indians	23	22	125	535	135	55	14	19.4%	11.8%	3.3%	4.67	4.75	+0.8
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	AA	Amarillo Sod Poodles	3	3	7	34	10	5	2	—	—	—	10.80	—	—
ROS	23	MLB	ARI	22	22	120	507	106	55	16	20.9%	10.8%	3.1%	4.80	4.80	+0.7
2026 Total	23	MLB	ARI	—	—	127	541	116	60	18	21.5%	11.1%	3.3%	5.12	4.55	+1.1
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	24	MLB	ARI	25	25	139	587	127	58	18	21.6%	9.9%	3.1%	4.66	4.60	+1.1
2028	25	MLB	ARI	28	28	153	645	142	61	20	22.0%	9.4%	3.1%	4.55	4.49	+1.4
2029	26	MLB	ARI	29	29	160	674	150	63	21	22.2%	9.3%	3.1%	4.49	4.46	+1.5
2030	27	MLB	ARI	30	30	162	686	153	64	21	22.2%	9.3%	3.1%	4.47	4.46	+1.5
2031	28	MLB	ARI	29	29	162	684	152	64	21	22.2%	9.3%	3.1%	4.48	4.49	+1.5
2032	29	MLB	ARI	29	29	158	669	148	63	21	22.1%	9.4%	3.1%	4.51	4.53	+1.4
2033	30	MLB	ARI	28	28	154	649	142	62	21	21.9%	9.5%	3.2%	4.56	4.59	+1.2
2034	31	MLB	ARI	27	27	148	626	135	60	20	21.6%	9.6%	3.3%	4.63	4.67	+1.1
2035	32	MLB	ARI	26	26	142	601	128	59	20	21.3%	9.8%	3.4%	4.71	4.76	+0.9
2036	33	MLB	ARI	25	25	136	574	121	57	20	21.0%	10.0%	3.4%	4.80	4.85	+0.7
2037	34	MLB	ARI	23	23	129	546	113	55	19	20.7%	10.2%	3.5%	4.90	4.96	+0.5
2038	35	MLB	ARI	22	22	122	514	104	53	19	20.3%	10.4%	3.6%	5.01	5.08	+0.3
2039	36	MLB	ARI	21	21	114	481	96	51	18	19.9%	10.6%	3.8%	5.14	5.22	+0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			50	48	254	1082	212	128	37	19.6%	11.8%	3.4%	4.43	4.82	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—			39	38	200	853	167	101	29	19.6%	11.8%	3.4%	4.43	4.82	+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Josh Grosz (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.80	20.9%	10.8%	3.1%	—	4.51	22.0%	12.4%	451	-0.29	—	—	—
Trent Baker R 2026 · 4.17 FIP	23	SP-	4.17	19.3%	10.7%	2.5%	.315	4.02	18.1%	9.4%	296	-0.15	3.77	420	93
R.J. Gordon R 2026 · 4.31 FIP	23	SP-	4.31	21.5%	9.5%	3.3%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	129	93
Roman Angelo R 2027 · 4.02 FIP	24	SP-	4.02	22.6%	11.4%	2.5%	.291	5.45	17.7%	4.3%	141	+1.43	4.02	262	92
Jamison Hill R 2026 · 4.80 FIP	23	SP-	4.80	18.4%	11.6%	3.3%	.280	4.97	16.1%	3.0%	202	+0.17	4.68	326	92
Austin Love R 2026 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	20.6%	10.6%	2.9%	.358	3.57	22.1%	9.7%	56	-0.73	3.57	182	91
Rorik Maltrud R 2027 · 3.89 FIP	24	SP-	3.89	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.44	18.2%	7.0%	78	+0.55	3.89	183	90
Dinelson Lamet R 2026 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP-	4.36	20.1%	11.8%	2.7%	.272	3.77	24.2%	13.1%	293	-0.59	1.92	778	90
Riley Gowens R 2027 · 4.63 FIP	24	SP-	4.63	22.6%	10.3%	3.9%	.279	4.35	22.4%	12.5%	132	-0.28	4.35	254	90
Kenten Egbert R 2026 · 4.23 FIP	23	SP-	4.23	19.6%	9.6%	2.9%	.257	4.02	10.6%	4.0%	101	-0.21	4.02	199	90
Brandon Bielak R 2026 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP-	4.36	20.5%	10.6%	3.0%	.267	4.04	20.4%	10.0%	200	-0.32	3.21	670	90
Tyler Uberstine R 2026 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	19.5%	10.5%	2.5%	.302	4.38	23.2%	14.7%	121	+0.23	4.15	212	90
Austin Cates R 2025 · 3.95 FIP	22	SP-	3.95	19.7%	9.0%	2.5%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	3.95	110	89
Angel Ventura R 2026 · 4.34 FIP	23	SP-	4.34	17.9%	10.9%	2.5%	.285	4.64	14.8%	4.8%	153	+0.30	3.44	393	89
Shelby Lackey R 2025 · 4.45 FIP	22	SP-	4.45	18.2%	10.0%	2.9%	.323	3.96	20.6%	5.7%	65	-0.49	2.91	175	89
Jason Bahr R 2026 · 3.79 FIP	23	SP-	3.79	20.3%	8.2%	2.5%	.297	4.07	20.3%	7.1%	155	+0.28	3.32	315	89
Mitch Spence R 2026 · 4.12 FIP	23	SP-	4.12	20.3%	9.5%	2.8%	.314	4.52	19.2%	11.6%	445	+0.40	4.07	663	89
Ian Bedell R 2026 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	21.0%	10.1%	2.0%	.285	5.74	19.4%	9.6%	160	+2.02	3.72	256	89
Nolan McLean R 2026 · 4.40 FIP	23	SP-	4.40	20.0%	10.1%	3.1%	.292	3.12	26.2%	15.9%	185	-1.28	2.20	295	89
Derek True R 2026 · 4.91 FIP	23	SP-	4.91	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.96	16.6%	4.6%	60	+0.05	4.91	157	89
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2027 · 5.13 FIP	24	SP-	5.13	18.8%	10.2%	4.2%	.327	3.98	23.2%	13.0%	155	-1.15	2.65	315	88

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+1.5	$13M	+$12M
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+1.6	$14M	+$14M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+1.5	$14M	+$13M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$3M	+1.4	$13M	+$11M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$4M	+1.2	$12M	+$8M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$5M	+1.1	$11M	+$6M
Totals		$14M		$78M	+$63M