Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 20 | ROK | GCL Astros | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 3.10 | — |
| 2017 | 20 | ROK | GCL Astros | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 3.10 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 13 | 101 | 403 | 114 | 32 | 2 | 54% | 4.2 | 21.1% | 9.3% | 11.8% | 0.7% | 2.32 | 2.87 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 13 | 101 | 403 | 114 | 32 | 2 | 54% | 4.2 | 28.3% | 7.9% | 20.3% | 0.5% | 2.32 | 2.05 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | 2 | 2 | 8 | 33 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 3.8 | 42.4% | 12.1% | 30.3% | 3.0% | 2.35 | 2.72 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | 2 | 2 | 8 | 33 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 3.8 | 42.4% | 12.1% | 30.3% | 3.0% | 2.35 | 2.71 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 18 | 112 | 481 | 122 | 50 | 16 | 67% | 4.1 | 22.6% | 10.8% | 11.7% | 4.2% | 4.27 | 4.87 | +0.7 |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 18 | 112 | 481 | 122 | 50 | 16 | 67% | 4.1 | 25.4% | 10.4% | 15.0% | 3.3% | 4.27 | 4.12 | +1.7 |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | 27 | 21 | 110 | 495 | 98 | 54 | 22 | 78% | 4.1 | 17.4% | 11.5% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 5.58 | 5.70 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | 27 | 21 | 110 | 495 | 98 | 54 | 22 | 78% | 4.1 | 19.8% | 10.9% | 8.9% | 4.4% | 5.58 | 5.40 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 30 | 17 | 104 | 511 | 101 | 56 | 19 | 57% | 3.5 | 17.0% | 11.5% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 8.22 | 4.94 | +0.6 |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 30 | 17 | 104 | 511 | 101 | 56 | 19 | 57% | 3.5 | 19.8% | 11.0% | 8.8% | 3.7% | 8.22 | 5.15 | +0.3 |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA | Round Rock Express | 22 | 11 | 72 | 324 | 70 | 41 | 15 | 50% | 3.3 | 19.0% | 13.3% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.50 | 6.45 | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA | Round Rock Express | 22 | 11 | 72 | 324 | 70 | 41 | 15 | 50% | 3.3 | 21.6% | 12.7% | 9.0% | 4.6% | 6.50 | 5.57 | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | 6 | 6 | 18 | 88 | 22 | 11 | 3 | 100% | 3.0 | 22.0% | 13.1% | 8.9% | 3.0% | 7.50 | 4.55 | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | 6 | 6 | 18 | 88 | 22 | 11 | 3 | 100% | 3.0 | 25.0% | 12.5% | 12.5% | 3.4% | 7.50 | 4.66 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | CHC | 9 | 9 | 56 | 238 | 42 | 39 | 9 | 100% | 6.3 | 17.5% | 16.4% | 1.1% | 3.6% | 5.82 | 6.08 | -1.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | CHC | 9 | 9 | 53 | 224 | 39 | 36 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 17.4% | 16.0% | 1.4% | 3.8% | 5.93 | 6.11 | -1.0 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | CHC | 8 | 8 | 49 | 209 | 36 | 33 | 8 | 100% | 6.2 | 17.1% | 15.9% | 1.3% | 3.9% | 6.05 | 6.21 | -1.0 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | CHC | 3 | 3 | 19 | 80 | 14 | 13 | 3 | 100% | 6.3 | 17.4% | 16.0% | 1.4% | 3.8% | 5.93 | 6.11 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | CHC | 4 | 4 | 27 | 114 | 20 | 18 | 5 | 100% | 6.8 | 17.1% | 15.9% | 1.3% | 3.9% | 6.05 | 6.21 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 19 | 8 | 74 | 319 | 50 | 50 | 10 | 42% | 3.9 | 15.7% | 15.8% | -0.1% | 3.0% | 6.22 | 5.44 | -0.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 51 | 21 | 200 | 862 | 135 | 135 | 27 | 41% | 3.9 | 15.7% | 15.8% | -0.1% | 3.0% | 6.22 | 5.44 | -0.1 | ||
| Career | — | 139 | 89 | 525 | 2338 | 462 | 264 | 86 | 64% | 3.8 | 19.8% | 11.3% | 8.5% | 3.7% | 5.33 | 4.89 | +3.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 53 | 34 | 200 | 891 | 176 | 101 | 33 | 64% | 3.8 | 19.8% | 11.3% | 8.5% | 3.7% | 5.33 | 4.89 | +1.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Peter Solomon (OGILVIE) | — | — | 6.08 | 17.5% | 16.4% | 3.6% | — | 6.16 | 17.3% | 1.3% | 102 | +0.08 | — | — | — |
| Luis Mateo R 2026 · 5.34 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.34 | 8.6% | 13.4% | 2.3% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 160 | 69 |
| Mark Appel R 2027 · 5.85 FIP | 30 | SP- | 5.85 | 15.6% | 15.6% | 3.8% | .260 | 4.17 | 18.5% | 8.1% | 40 | -1.68 | 4.17 | 363 | 69 |
| Trevor Cahill R 2026 · 5.10 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.10 | 22.8% | 11.5% | 4.5% | .321 | 4.41 | 21.3% | 11.7% | 251 | -0.69 | 3.33 | 556 | 69 |
| David Griffin R 2024 · 6.04 FIP | 27 | SP- | 6.04 | 14.5% | 10.3% | 5.2% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.52 | 239 | 68 |
| Sean O'Sullivan R 2026 · 5.80 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.80 | 11.9% | 11.7% | 4.0% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 290 | 65 |
| Chris Kachmar R 2026 · 5.54 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.54 | 14.1% | 15.9% | 2.9% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.39 | 353 | 64 |
| Chris Tillman R 2026 · 6.12 FIP | 29 | SP- | 6.12 | 14.2% | 11.5% | 5.0% | .330 | 5.88 | 8.5% | -3.8% | 51 | -0.24 | 3.95 | 489 | 64 |
| Chris Heston R 2026 · 6.01 FIP | 29 | SP- | 6.01 | 13.6% | 10.0% | 5.1% | .368 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.82 | 321 | 64 |
| David Fletcher R 2027 · 5.92 FIP | 30 | SP- | 5.92 | 7.6% | 10.5% | 3.9% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.92 | 100 | 63 |
| Zack Segovia R 2029 · 5.00 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.00 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .314 | 3.41 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.59 | 3.41 | 144 | 63 |
| Miguel Ruiz R 2026 · 6.00 FIP | 29 | SP- | 6.00 | 8.8% | 8.0% | 4.8% | .346 | 5.44 | 10.6% | -0.4% | 53 | -0.56 | 5.44 | 117 | 62 |
| Mike Hauschild R 2026 · 5.80 FIP | 29 | SP | 5.80 | 11.5% | 14.9% | 3.2% | .325 | 8.43 | 11.3% | -0.1% | 54 | +2.63 | 3.14 | 579 | 62 |
| Mat Latos R 2026 · 5.79 FIP | 29 | SP | 5.79 | 16.8% | 11.2% | 4.9% | .309 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 244 | 62 |
| Blair Henley R 2024 · 5.90 FIP | 27 | SP | 5.90 | 17.6% | 14.5% | 4.5% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 187 | 61 |
| Deck McGuire R 2026 · 5.39 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.39 | 18.4% | 13.2% | 4.0% | .262 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.23 | 622 | 61 |
| Tim Adleman R 2026 · 5.42 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.42 | 20.3% | 9.4% | 5.2% | .276 | 4.57 | 22.8% | 15.0% | 117 | -0.85 | 3.61 | 605 | 59 |
| Matt Cain R 2027 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.90 | 17.1% | 6.8% | 4.3% | .296 | 4.88 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 214 | -0.02 | 4.83 | 294 | 59 |
| Daniel Corcino R 2025 · 5.66 FIP | 28 | SP | 5.66 | 17.5% | 12.2% | 4.5% | .259 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.75 | 299 | 58 |
| Jordan Cooper R 2023 · 5.05 FIP | 26 | SP | 5.05 | 9.2% | 10.2% | 2.6% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.05 | 106 | 58 |
| Jack Weisenburger R 2025 · 5.11 FIP | 28 | SP- | 5.11 | 18.6% | 13.5% | 3.4% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 128 | 57 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 53 | 17.4% | 16.1% | 1.47 | 5.93 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Ross Detwiler ('22) | 5 | 51 | 17.3% | 9.5% | 1.76 | 6.03 |
| Dylan Covey ('23) | 4 | 73 | 15.4% | 9.9% | 1.53 | 6.14 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |