Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | A+ | Vancouver Canadians | 19 | 19 | 80 | 353 | 100 | 39 | 9 | 100% | 4.2 | 21.8% | 12.7% | 9.1% | 3.9% | 5.83 | 5.01 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ | Vancouver Canadians | 19 | 19 | 80 | 353 | 100 | 39 | 9 | 100% | 4.2 | 28.3% | 11.0% | 17.3% | 2.5% | 5.83 | 3.52 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 12 | 11 | 34 | 143 | 33 | 12 | 5 | 92% | 2.9 | 16.5% | 10.3% | 6.2% | 3.7% | 3.67 | 5.03 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 12 | 11 | 34 | 143 | 33 | 12 | 5 | 92% | 2.9 | 23.1% | 8.4% | 14.7% | 3.5% | 3.67 | 4.12 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | 30 | 16 | 95 | 430 | 78 | 38 | 10 | 53% | 3.2 | 14.7% | 9.7% | 5.0% | 2.2% | 5.68 | 4.28 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | 30 | 16 | 95 | 430 | 78 | 38 | 10 | 53% | 3.2 | 18.1% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 2.3% | 5.68 | 4.03 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 24 | 126 | 554 | 109 | 51 | 20 | 89% | 4.7 | 16.9% | 9.8% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 4.79 | 6.04 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 24 | 126 | 554 | 109 | 51 | 20 | 89% | 4.7 | 19.7% | 9.2% | 10.5% | 3.6% | 4.79 | 4.65 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | 17 | 13 | 78 | 327 | 56 | 25 | 6 | 76% | 4.6 | 15.1% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 2.0% | 3.79 | 3.95 | +0.9 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | TOR | 12 | 12 | 75 | 317 | 48 | 34 | 13 | 100% | 6.3 | 15.1% | 10.7% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 5.82 | 5.82 | -0.8 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | TOR | 4 | 4 | 23 | 97 | 15 | 10 | 4 | 100% | 5.8 | 15.1% | 10.7% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 5.82 | 5.82 | -0.3 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 153 | 644 | 104 | 59 | 19 | — | — | 16.1% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 3.0% | 4.78 | 4.87 | +1.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 23 | 95 | 14 | 10 | 4 | — | — | 15.1% | 10.7% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 5.82 | 5.44 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | TOR | 12 | 12 | 73 | 307 | 49 | 33 | 13 | 100% | 6.1 | 15.8% | 10.7% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 5.72 | 5.75 | -0.8 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | TOR | 12 | 12 | 70 | 293 | 47 | 32 | 12 | 100% | 5.8 | 16.1% | 10.8% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 5.71 | 5.78 | -0.8 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | TOR | 7 | 7 | 40 | 169 | 27 | 18 | 7 | 100% | 5.7 | 15.8% | 10.7% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 5.72 | 5.75 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | TOR | 8 | 8 | 47 | 198 | 32 | 21 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 16.1% | 10.8% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 5.71 | 5.78 | -0.7 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 18 | 18 | 109 | 462 | 73 | 50 | 19 | 100% | 6.1 | 15.8% | 10.8% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 5.74 | 5.40 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 133 | 91 | 35 | 100% | 6.0 | 15.8% | 10.8% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 5.74 | 5.40 | +0.0 | ||
| Career | — | 105 | 83 | 414 | 1807 | 306 | 182 | 67 | 79% | 3.9 | 17.0% | 10.1% | 6.9% | 3.7% | 4.91 | 4.96 | +2.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 51 | 40 | 200 | 873 | 148 | 88 | 32 | 79% | 3.9 | 17.0% | 10.1% | 6.9% | 3.7% | 4.91 | 4.96 | +1.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| CJ Van Eyk (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.82 | 15.1% | 10.7% | 4.1% | — | 5.76 | 16.0% | 5.2% | 142 | -0.06 | — | — | — |
| David Griffin R 2026 · 6.04 FIP | 27 | SP- | 6.04 | 14.5% | 10.3% | 5.2% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.52 | 239 | 84 |
| Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2026 · 5.13 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.13 | 11.6% | 9.8% | 3.2% | .263 | 4.14 | 15.3% | 5.2% | 167 | -0.99 | 3.84 | 272 | 81 |
| Nestor Molina R 2026 · 5.13 FIP | 27 | SP | 5.13 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 4.2% | .304 | 3.57 | 17.0% | 10.2% | 289 | -1.56 | 3.07 | 401 | 81 |
| Miguel Ruiz R 2028 · 6.00 FIP | 29 | SP- | 6.00 | 8.8% | 8.0% | 4.8% | .346 | 5.44 | 10.6% | -0.4% | 53 | -0.56 | 5.44 | 117 | 78 |
| Jacob Turner R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.69 | 14.9% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 340 | 78 |
| Kyle Brnovich R 2026 · 5.49 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.49 | 19.6% | 13.6% | 4.2% | .330 | 6.70 | 15.2% | 5.2% | 69 | +1.21 | 3.69 | 333 | 76 |
| Dylan Cumming R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.71 | 16.4% | 7.6% | 3.7% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 366 | 76 |
| David Fletcher R 2029 · 5.92 FIP | 30 | SP- | 5.92 | 7.6% | 10.5% | 3.9% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.92 | 100 | 76 |
| Jordan Cooper R 2025 · 5.05 FIP | 26 | SP | 5.05 | 9.2% | 10.2% | 2.6% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.05 | 106 | 76 |
| Kris Medlen R 2028 · 4.77 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.77 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 4.0% | .261 | 5.16 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 173 | +0.39 | 4.66 | 261 | 75 |
| Ben Anderson R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.94 | 11.6% | 10.0% | 2.8% | .315 | 7.90 | 8.5% | -4.1% | 47 | +2.96 | 3.71 | 361 | 75 |
| Asher Wojciechowski R 2026 · 5.60 FIP | 27 | SP | 5.60 | 13.5% | 11.0% | 4.1% | .315 | 4.61 | 22.2% | 14.4% | 379 | -0.99 | 3.19 | 678 | 75 |
| Terance Marin R 2025 · 5.01 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.01 | 11.2% | 7.7% | 3.4% | .294 | 4.18 | 12.4% | 7.5% | 88 | -0.83 | 3.39 | 322 | 75 |
| Brett Gillis R 2025 · 5.10 FIP | 26 | SP | 5.10 | 15.8% | 9.1% | 4.0% | .231 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.37 | 119 | 74 |
| Anders Tolhurst R 2024 · 6.41 FIP | 25 | SP | 6.41 | 17.3% | 10.6% | 6.2% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.86 | 159 | 74 |
| Bryan Mitchell R 2026 · 6.43 FIP | 27 | SP- | 6.43 | 13.0% | 12.2% | 5.2% | .282 | 5.51 | 17.2% | 4.6% | 115 | -0.92 | 2.70 | 481 | 74 |
| Mike McCarthy R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.79 | 9.4% | 9.1% | 2.4% | .280 | 4.77 | 6.2% | -3.5% | 37 | -0.02 | 4.77 | 153 | 73 |
| Dom Hamel R 2026 · 5.62 FIP | 27 | SP | 5.62 | 15.4% | 12.2% | 4.2% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 514 | 73 |
| Matthew Shepherd R 2024 · 5.57 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.57 | 13.7% | 9.5% | 4.4% | .390 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.57 | 116 | 73 |
| Alex Blackford R 2025 · 5.71 FIP | 26 | SP | 5.71 | 14.9% | 12.5% | 4.2% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.60 | 229 | 73 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 72 | 15.7% | 10.8% | 1.60 | 5.75 |
| Ross Detwiler ('22) | 5 | 51 | 17.3% | 9.5% | 1.76 | 6.03 |
| Dylan Covey ('23) | 4 | 73 | 15.4% | 9.9% | 1.53 | 6.14 |
| Eddie Butler ('18) | 4 | 62 | 13.3% | 9.8% | 1.49 | 5.74 |
| Mike Wright Jr. ('19) | 5 | 52 | 17.7% | 8.4% | 1.53 | 6.00 |
| Edwin Jackson ('19) | 5 | 75 | 17.0% | 9.7% | 1.75 | 5.37 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |