Ben Kudrna

P Omaha Storm Chasers

Age 24 RHP 6'3" / 175 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.7 · 2029

Overview

AAA40-MANPROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

OGV OFP40OGV rank#321ETA2028MLB%30%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	MIX2 levels	23	22	115	4.21	3.99	24.2%	10.8%	—	K 19.1% · BB 12.2% · FIP 5.08
2025	22	MIX2 levels	24	22	105	5.30	3.75	22.9%	10.8%	—	K 18.7% · BB 11.1% · FIP 4.25
2026	23	AAAKC	1	1	2	9.00	7.10	18.2%	36.4%	—	K 18.2% · BB 36.4% · FIP 6.17
2027PROJ	24	MLBKC	7	7	40	4.92	4.92	19.0%	11.2%	0.2
2028PROJ59% MLB	25	MLBKC	11	11	65	4.64	4.58	20.2%	10.3%	0.5
2029PROJ75% MLB	26	MLBKC	13	13	76	4.53	4.49	20.9%	10.0%	0.7

Next 3 projected WAR 1.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$1M2033Arb-2$1M2034Ext$0.6M

Career WAR-0.3 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 93%

CompsJustin Armbruester (age 24) · Ian Mejia (age 24) · Ty Cummings (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 110

ERA4.92

FIP4.92

K%19.0%

BB%11.2%

K-BB%7.8%

Proj IP135

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 135 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$24M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2032	Arb-1	$1M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2033	Arb-2	$1M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.2M
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$5M		$9M	+$6M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	19	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	17	17	72	311	61	32	4	100%	4.3	14.5%	12.1%	2.4%	1.5%	3.48	4.22	—
2022	19	A RAW	Columbia Fireflies	17	17	72	311	61	32	4	100%	4.3	19.6%	10.3%	9.3%	1.3%	3.48	3.46	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	21	109	468	104	45	14	95%	4.9	16.7%	11.2%	5.4%	3.6%	4.22	5.09	—
2023	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	21	109	468	104	45	14	95%	4.9	22.2%	9.6%	12.6%	3.0%	4.22	4.10	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	22	115	491	119	53	14	96%	5.0	19.1%	12.2%	6.9%	3.7%	4.21	5.08	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	22	115	491	119	53	14	96%	5.0	19.1%	12.2%	6.9%	3.7%	4.21	5.08	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	22	115	491	119	53	14	96%	5.0	24.2%	10.8%	13.4%	2.9%	4.21	3.99	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	22	105	463	106	50	10	92%	4.4	18.7%	11.1%	7.5%	2.4%	5.30	4.25	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	22	105	463	106	50	10	92%	4.4	18.7%	11.1%	7.5%	2.4%	5.30	4.25	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	22	105	463	106	50	10	92%	4.4	22.9%	10.8%	12.1%	2.2%	5.30	3.75	—
2026	23	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	1	1	2	11	2	4	0	100%	2.0	18.2%	36.4%	-18.2%	0.0%	9.00	6.17	—
2026	23	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	1	1	2	11	2	4	0	100%	2.0	18.2%	36.4%	-18.2%	0.0%	9.00	6.17	—
2026	23	AAA RAW	Omaha Storm Chasers	1	1	2	11	2	4	0	100%	2.0	18.2%	36.4%	-18.2%	0.0%	9.00	7.10	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	KC	7	7	40	169	32	19	5	100%	5.7	19.0%	11.2%	7.8%	3.0%	4.92	4.92	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	KC	19	19	109	461	93	47	14	100%	5.7	20.2%	10.3%	9.9%	3.0%	4.76	4.70	+0.9
2029	26	MLB MLE	KC	17	17	100	424	89	43	13	100%	5.9	20.9%	10.0%	10.8%	3.0%	4.65	4.61	+0.9
2030	27	MLB MLE	KC	16	16	95	402	84	40	12	100%	6.0	20.9%	10.0%	10.9%	3.0%	4.63	4.63	+0.8
2031	28	MLB MLE	KC	15	15	90	380	79	38	12	100%	6.0	20.8%	10.1%	10.7%	3.1%	4.67	4.71	+0.7
2032	29	MLB MLE	KC	14	14	83	352	72	36	11	100%	6.0	20.6%	10.3%	10.3%	3.3%	4.77	4.84	+0.5
2033	30	MLB MLE	KC	13	13	76	319	65	34	11	100%	5.8	20.2%	10.6%	9.6%	3.5%	4.92	5.01	+0.3
2034	31	MLB MLE	KC	11	11	68	285	57	31	10	100%	6.1	19.8%	11.0%	8.9%	3.7%	5.10	5.22	+0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	KC	11	11	65	274	55	28	7	100%	5.9	20.2%	10.3%	9.9%	2.7%	4.64	4.58	+0.5
2029	26	MLB CTX	KC	13	13	76	321	67	32	9	100%	5.8	20.9%	10.0%	10.8%	2.7%	4.53	4.49	+0.7
2030	27	MLB CTX	KC	13	13	79	334	70	33	9	100%	6.1	20.9%	10.0%	10.9%	2.8%	4.51	4.51	+0.7
2031	28	MLB CTX	KC	13	13	79	334	69	34	10	100%	6.1	20.8%	10.1%	10.7%	2.9%	4.54	4.58	+0.6
2032	29	MLB CTX	KC	12	12	75	317	65	33	10	100%	6.2	20.6%	10.3%	10.3%	3.0%	4.64	4.71	+0.5
2033	30	MLB CTX	KC	12	12	69	291	59	31	9	100%	5.8	20.2%	10.6%	9.6%	3.2%	4.78	4.87	+0.3
2034	31	MLB CTX	KC	10	10	62	262	52	29	9	100%	6.2	19.8%	11.0%	8.9%	3.4%	4.95	5.07	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		84	84	504	2129	437	219	63	100%	6.0	20.5%	10.3%	10.2%	3.0%	4.64	4.29	+6.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	173	87	25	100%	6.0	20.5%	10.3%	10.2%	3.0%	4.64	4.29	+2.6
Career	—	MLE		87	83	404	1744	305	206	51	95%	4.6	17.5%	11.8%	5.7%	2.9%	4.39	4.72	+4.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		43	41	200	864	151	102	25	95%	4.6	17.5%	11.8%	5.7%	2.9%	4.39	4.72	+1.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 94 IPFIP 3.08 → 3.68 (+0.60)K% 24.0% → 19.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.00%	—	×0.810	19.44%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.25%	—	×1.100	9.08%
HR / BF /BF	1.75%	÷1.077	×1.200	1.95%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 115).

Result: FIP 3.08 → 3.68, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 11 IPFIP 7.79 → 7.89 (+0.10)K% 15.9% → 13.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.87%	—	×0.860	13.65%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	26.98%	—	×0.900	24.29%
HR / BF /BF	4.76%	÷1.003	×1.100	5.22%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 101).

Result: FIP 7.79 → 7.89, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Quad Cities River Bandits · 70 IPFIP 3.57 → 4.62 (+1.05)K% 24.9% → 19.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.91%	—	×0.770	19.18%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.23%	—	×1.150	12.91%
HR / BF /BF	2.11%	÷0.959	×1.250	2.75%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 92).

Result: FIP 3.57 → 4.62, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 46 IPFIP 4.56 → 5.71 (+1.15)K% 23.3% → 18.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.30%	—	×0.810	18.87%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.19%	—	×1.100	11.21%
HR / BF /BF	3.88%	÷0.920	×1.200	5.07%

Result: FIP 4.56 → 5.71, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AColumbia Fireflies · 68 IPFIP 3.69 → 4.71 (+1.02)K% 24.1% → 17.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.05%	—	×0.740	17.80%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.31%	—	×1.180	12.16%
HR / BF /BF	2.41%	÷1.089	×1.300	2.87%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 118).

Result: FIP 3.69 → 4.71, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Quad Cities River Bandits · 40 IPFIP 4.72 → 5.71 (+0.99)K% 19.2% → 14.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.21%	—	×0.770	14.79%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.47%	—	×1.150	9.75%
HR / BF /BF	3.95%	÷1.033	×1.250	4.78%

Result: FIP 4.72 → 5.71, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AColumbia Fireflies · 72 IPFIP 3.45 → 4.22 (+0.76)K% 19.6% → 14.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.61%	—	×0.740	14.51%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.29%	—	×1.180	12.14%
HR / BF /BF	1.29%	÷1.140	×1.300	1.47%

Result: FIP 3.45 → 4.22, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ben Kudrna (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.0%	—	4.65	20.7%	10.6%	305	-0.27	—	—	—
Justin Armbruester R 2023 · 4.41 FIP	24	SP	4.41	17.7%	9.6%	2.9%	.271	5.25	21.0%	10.6%	135	+0.84	1.49	373	90
Ian Mejia R 2024 · 4.22 FIP	24	SP	4.22	18.7%	11.6%	2.2%	.288	5.06	16.0%	6.6%	194	+0.84	3.94	439	89
Ty Cummings R 2024 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	19.0%	10.5%	2.8%	.329	5.36	14.4%	6.0%	178	+1.02	4.34	295	88
Austin Love R 2022 · 4.34 FIP	23	SP	4.34	20.6%	10.6%	3.0%	.358	3.58	22.1%	9.7%	56	-0.76	3.58	240	87
Jesse Foppert R 2003 · 4.80 FIP	23	SP	4.80	20.2%	13.0%	3.2%	.274	7.32	11.3%	-13.2%	10	+2.52	4.80	121	87
Carlos Pimentel R 2015 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP	4.43	17.1%	11.6%	2.4%	.266	4.32	15.8%	5.8%	158	-0.11	4.30	301	86
Keyvius Sampson R 2015 · 4.10 FIP	24	SP	4.10	16.9%	12.2%	1.6%	.314	4.55	21.2%	7.9%	181	+0.45	4.10	316	86
Tony Dibrell R 2019 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP	4.62	16.0%	11.7%	2.5%	.302	5.67	20.5%	6.2%	58	+1.05	4.18	347	86
Tyler Herb R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	17.2%	10.1%	2.5%	.298	4.67	15.7%	7.0%	378	+0.38	3.79	867	86
Roman Angelo R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP	3.99	22.6%	11.4%	2.5%	.291	5.72	18.6%	5.2%	169	+1.73	3.99	290	86
Riley Gowens R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	22.6%	10.3%	3.7%	.279	4.37	21.3%	12.1%	173	-0.18	4.30	295	86
Will Warren R 2023 · 4.06 FIP	24	SP	4.06	22.9%	10.1%	2.9%	.287	3.91	23.9%	15.7%	451	-0.15	3.72	709	85
Josh Bostick R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP	4.65	19.3%	11.2%	3.2%	.304	5.40	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.75	4.65	226	85
Nolan McLean R 2024 · 4.40 FIP	23	SP	4.40	20.0%	10.1%	3.1%	.292	3.26	25.6%	16.0%	341	-1.14	3.17	451	84
Blade Tidwell R 2024 · 4.87 FIP	23	SP	4.87	19.0%	11.2%	3.6%	.274	4.11	21.1%	11.9%	241	-0.76	3.89	479	84
Alex Pham R 2024 · 4.09 FIP	24	SP	4.09	22.6%	11.1%	2.7%	.284	3.85	23.2%	11.3%	100	-0.24	3.73	352	84
Michael Kelly R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	24	SP-	4.22	19.6%	10.9%	2.5%	.297	6.36	14.6%	-9.6%	67	+2.14	2.70	666	84
Josh Grosz R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	21	SP	4.83	19.2%	11.7%	3.4%	.271	5.07	21.5%	8.5%	183	+0.24	4.75	301	84
Blayne Weller R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	25	SP	4.15	16.0%	9.7%	2.1%	.326	5.65	17.6%	8.4%	103	+1.50	4.15	254	84
Luke Russo R 2024 · 3.74 FIP	23	SP	3.74	21.7%	11.1%	1.9%	.326	5.00	19.6%	8.8%	159	+1.26	3.74	260	83

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.8	95	20.3%	10.4%	1.21	4.79
Mickey Mahler ('77-'86, 0 WAR*)	2.0	81	20.4%*	10.3%*	1.20*	4.87*
Scott Sanders ('99)	3.4	97	21.2%	9.3%	1.23	4.86
Jeff Juden ('99)	2.7	107	18.8%	10.5%	1.23	4.81
Charlie Puleo ('81-'89, 1 WAR*)	3.2	90	18.5%*	11.5%*	1.22*	4.73*
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Dave Hamilton ('72-'80, 2 WAR*)	3.5	78	21.3%*	10.2%*	1.13*	4.58*