Ben Kudrna — OGILVIE

Ben Kudrna P Omaha Storm Chasers

+0.2 WAR

INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)

Age 23 RHP 6'3" / 175 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.3 · 2029

ERA4.91

FIP4.91

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%20.0%

BB%11.5%

K-BB%8.4%

IP109

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.3peak

2029

K†4550

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2022	19	A	Columbia Fireflies	17	17	72	311	61	32	4	14.5%	12.1%	1.5%	3.48	4.24	+0.7
2023	20	A+	Quad Cities River Bandits	22	21	109	468	104	45	14	16.7%	11.2%	3.6%	4.22	5.09	+0.3
2024	21	AA	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	23	22	115	491	119	53	14	19.1%	12.2%	3.8%	4.21	5.13	+0.2
2025	22	AAA	Omaha Storm Chasers	24	22	105	463	106	50	10	18.7%	11.7%	2.4%	5.30	4.31	+1.2
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	AAA	Omaha Storm Chasers	1	1	2	11	2	4	0	—	—	—	9.00	—	—
ROS	23	MLB	KC	44	—	44	184	37	21	6	20.0%	11.6%	3.0%	4.91	4.91	+0.0
2026 Total	23	MLB	KC	—	—	46	195	39	25	6	19.9%	13.0%	2.9%	5.09	4.69	+0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	24	MLB	KC	23	23	127	538	112	56	16	20.9%	10.5%	3.0%	4.75	4.68	+0.9
2028	25	MLB	KC	26	26	141	595	127	58	18	21.3%	9.8%	3.0%	4.62	4.55	+1.2
2029	26	MLB	KC	27	27	148	625	135	60	19	21.6%	9.7%	3.0%	4.55	4.52	+1.3
2030	27	MLB	KC	27	27	151	637	138	61	19	21.6%	9.7%	3.0%	4.53	4.52	+1.3
2031	28	MLB	KC	27	27	151	636	137	62	19	21.6%	9.7%	3.0%	4.54	4.55	+1.3
2032	29	MLB	KC	27	27	147	622	133	61	19	21.4%	9.8%	3.1%	4.57	4.59	+1.2
2033	30	MLB	KC	26	26	143	603	128	60	19	21.2%	9.9%	3.1%	4.62	4.65	+1.1
2034	31	MLB	KC	25	25	138	582	122	58	19	21.0%	10.0%	3.2%	4.68	4.73	+0.9
2035	32	MLB	KC	24	24	132	559	116	57	18	20.7%	10.2%	3.3%	4.76	4.81	+0.7
2036	33	MLB	KC	23	23	126	533	109	55	18	20.4%	10.3%	3.4%	4.85	4.91	+0.6
2037	34	MLB	KC	22	22	120	507	102	53	18	20.1%	10.5%	3.5%	4.95	5.02	+0.4
2038	35	MLB	KC	21	21	113	478	94	51	17	19.7%	10.8%	3.6%	5.07	5.14	+0.2
2039	36	MLB	KC	19	19	106	446	86	49	16	19.3%	11.0%	3.7%	5.19	5.28	+0.0
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			87	83	404	1744	305	208	51	17.5%	12.0%	2.9%	4.39	4.75	+2.5
/ 200 IP	—			43	41	200	864	151	103	25	17.5%	12.0%	2.9%	4.39	4.75	+1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ben Kudrna (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.91	20.0%	11.6%	3.0%	—	4.58	21.3%	11.3%	416	-0.33	—	—	—
Ryan Atkinson R 2026 · 4.58 FIP	23	SU	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.15	338	94
Heath Holder R 2026 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.92	367	92
Jayson McKinley R 2026 · 4.39 FIP	23	SU	4.39	17.5%	11.4%	2.4%	.308	3.59	20.4%	11.3%	134	-0.80	2.36	173	91
TJ Shook R 2026 · 4.90 FIP	23	SU	4.90	21.7%	13.8%	3.4%	.311	4.99	20.7%	10.3%	296	+0.09	3.35	394	91
Ray Gaither R 2027 · 4.86 FIP	24	SU	4.86	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.51	18.6%	4.7%	123	-0.35	4.05	164	91
Harrison Cohen R 2027 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	3.00	24.2%	12.6%	70	-1.56	2.12	117	90
Chad Patrick R 2026 · 3.82 FIP	23	SU	3.82	20.3%	9.9%	2.1%	.315	4.23	22.3%	13.8%	422	+0.41	3.72	483	90
Davison Palermo R 2026 · 4.30 FIP	23	SU	4.30	19.0%	12.4%	2.3%	.246	4.95	18.4%	7.1%	108	+0.65	4.30	151	90
Sean Isaac R 2026 · 4.27 FIP	23	SU	4.27	19.5%	12.3%	2.3%	.342	3.77	25.0%	10.7%	128	-0.50	3.27	155	90
Owen Holt R 2026 · 3.81 FIP	23	SU	3.81	20.7%	10.2%	2.1%	.258	4.53	18.7%	6.4%	107	+0.72	3.81	145	90
Hayden Snelsire R 2026 · 5.15 FIP	23	SU	5.15	18.9%	13.8%	3.5%	.272	3.84	18.2%	11.8%	79	-1.31	3.84	122	89
Hunter Dula R 2026 · 3.90 FIP	23	SU	3.90	22.0%	12.3%	2.0%	.340	4.56	20.0%	8.9%	91	+0.66	3.90	132	89
Kyle Marman R 2025 · 3.97 FIP	22	SU	3.97	22.2%	12.8%	2.0%	.270	5.16	22.5%	8.4%	71	+1.19	3.97	117	89
Todd Peterson R 2026 · 5.15 FIP	23	SU	5.15	18.4%	10.3%	4.2%	.279	4.82	15.0%	4.3%	124	-0.33	4.45	175	89
Ricardo Velez R 2027 · 4.43 FIP	24	SU	4.43	22.4%	10.9%	3.3%	.261	3.88	20.1%	9.3%	114	-0.55	3.82	142	89
Cole Gordon R 2026 · 4.10 FIP	23	SU	4.10	22.0%	12.7%	2.3%	.243	5.19	20.9%	9.5%	83	+1.09	4.10	112	88
Luis Eusebio R 2026 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	18.2%	10.6%	3.7%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	4.79	131	88
Easton Sikorski R 2026 · 4.84 FIP	23	SU	4.84	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.24	18.1%	6.2%	130	-0.60	4.16	159	88
Vince Arobio R 2026 · 4.47 FIP	23	SU	4.47	20.5%	12.0%	2.9%	.365	3.69	24.1%	16.2%	55	-0.78	3.69	118	88
Grayson Thurman R 2027 · 4.71 FIP	24	SU	4.71	19.5%	14.1%	2.7%	.319	4.82	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.11	4.56	132	88

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.2	$10M	+$9M
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+1.3	$11M	+$11M
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+1.3	$12M	+$11M
2031	Arb-3	$3M	+1.3	$12M	+$9M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$4M	+1.2	$11M	+$7M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$5M	+1.0	$10M	+$4M
Totals		$15M		$67M	+$52M