Ben Kudrna — OGILVIE

Ben Kudrna P Omaha Storm Chasers

Age 23 RHP 6'3" / 175 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.1 · 2029 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION2 act + 11 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA5.00

FIP5.00

K%18.7%

BB%11.4%

K-BB%7.3%

ROS IP11

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 13 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$0M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5055

CTRL4050

CMD4050

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.1M	+0.0	$0.0M	+$0.0M (cut)
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2029	Arb-1	$3M	+0.5	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-2	$5M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-3	$6M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.8M		$6M	+$0.7M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	19	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	17	17	72	311	61	32	4	100%	4.3	14.5%	12.1%	2.4%	1.5%	3.48	4.22	—
2022	19	A RAW	Columbia Fireflies	17	17	72	311	61	32	4	100%	4.3	19.6%	10.3%	9.3%	1.3%	3.48	3.46	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	21	109	468	104	45	14	95%	4.9	16.7%	11.2%	5.4%	3.6%	4.22	5.09	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	21	109	468	104	45	14	95%	4.9	16.7%	11.2%	5.4%	3.6%	4.22	5.09	—
2023	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	21	109	468	104	45	14	95%	4.9	22.2%	9.6%	12.6%	3.0%	4.22	4.10	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	22	115	491	119	53	14	96%	5.0	19.1%	12.2%	6.9%	3.7%	4.21	5.08	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	22	115	491	119	53	14	96%	5.0	19.1%	12.2%	6.9%	3.7%	4.21	5.08	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	22	115	491	119	53	14	96%	5.0	24.2%	10.8%	13.4%	2.9%	4.21	3.99	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	22	105	463	106	50	10	92%	4.4	18.6%	11.1%	7.4%	2.4%	5.30	4.26	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	22	105	463	106	50	10	92%	4.4	18.6%	11.1%	7.4%	2.4%	5.30	4.26	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	22	105	463	106	50	10	92%	4.4	22.9%	10.8%	12.1%	2.2%	5.30	3.75	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	1	1	2	11	2	4	0	100%	2.0	—	—	—	—	9.00	—	—
YTD	23	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	1	1	2	11	2	4	0	100%	2.0	—	—	—	—	9.00	—	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	AAA RAW	KC	1	1	2	11	2	4	0	100%	2.0	18.2%	36.4%	-18.2%	0.0%	9.00	6.17	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	KC	2	2	11	48	9	5	1	100%	5.7	18.7%	11.4%	7.3%	3.0%	5.00	5.00	-0.0
ROS	23	MLB CTX	KC	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	18.7%	11.4%	7.3%	2.8%	4.88	4.88	-0.0
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	KC	—	—	13	59	11	9	1	—	—	18.6%	16.0%	2.6%	2.5%	5.60	4.25	+0.0
FULL	23	MLB A+C	KC	—	—	1	5	1	1	0	—	—	18.7%	11.4%	7.3%	2.8%	4.88	4.49	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	KC	25	25	139	586	118	60	17	100%	5.5	20.1%	10.3%	9.8%	3.0%	4.80	4.72	+0.3
2028	25	MLB MLE	KC	24	24	140	593	125	58	18	100%	5.9	21.0%	9.7%	11.3%	3.0%	4.65	4.56	+0.6
2029	26	MLB MLE	KC	23	23	140	593	127	57	18	100%	6.1	21.5%	9.6%	11.9%	3.0%	4.56	4.51	+0.6
2030	27	MLB MLE	KC	23	23	138	584	125	56	18	100%	6.0	21.5%	9.6%	11.9%	3.0%	4.55	4.54	+0.6
2031	28	MLB MLE	KC	22	22	134	567	121	55	18	100%	6.1	21.3%	9.8%	11.6%	3.1%	4.60	4.63	+0.4
2032	29	MLB MLE	KC	21	21	128	541	114	54	18	100%	6.1	21.1%	10.0%	11.1%	3.3%	4.69	4.76	+0.2
2033	30	MLB MLE	KC	20	20	120	509	106	52	18	100%	6.0	20.8%	10.3%	10.5%	3.5%	4.84	4.93	-0.0
2034	31	MLB MLE	KC	19	19	112	475	97	50	18	100%	5.9	20.3%	10.6%	9.7%	3.7%	5.02	5.14	-0.3
2027	24	MLB CTX	KC	12	12	67	283	57	29	8	100%	5.6	20.1%	10.3%	9.8%	2.8%	4.68	4.60	+0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	KC	17	17	97	410	86	40	11	100%	5.7	21.0%	9.7%	11.3%	2.7%	4.53	4.44	+0.4
2029	26	MLB CTX	KC	19	19	114	481	103	46	13	100%	6.0	21.5%	9.6%	11.9%	2.7%	4.44	4.39	+0.5
2030	27	MLB CTX	KC	20	20	119	502	108	48	14	100%	6.0	21.5%	9.6%	11.9%	2.8%	4.43	4.42	+0.5
2031	28	MLB CTX	KC	20	20	120	507	108	49	15	100%	6.0	21.3%	9.8%	11.6%	2.9%	4.47	4.50	+0.4
2032	29	MLB CTX	KC	20	20	117	494	104	49	15	100%	5.8	21.1%	10.0%	11.1%	3.0%	4.56	4.63	+0.2
2033	30	MLB CTX	KC	18	18	111	469	97	48	15	100%	6.2	20.8%	10.3%	10.5%	3.2%	4.70	4.79	-0.0
2034	31	MLB CTX	KC	18	18	105	443	90	47	15	100%	5.8	20.3%	10.6%	9.7%	3.4%	4.87	4.99	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		143	143	852	3596	755	358	106	100%	6.0	21.0%	10.0%	11.0%	3.0%	4.57	4.21	+6.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	177	84	25	100%	5.9	21.0%	10.0%	11.0%	3.0%	4.57	4.21	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		87	83	404	1744	305	206	51	95%	4.6	17.5%	11.8%	5.7%	2.9%	4.39	4.72	+2.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		43	41	200	864	151	102	25	95%	4.6	17.5%	11.8%	5.7%	2.9%	4.39	4.72	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ben Kudrna (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.00	18.7%	11.4%	3.0%	—	4.60	20.9%	11.0%	420	-0.40	—	—	—
Jamison Hill R 2022 · 4.83 FIP	23	SP	4.83	18.4%	11.6%	3.3%	.280	5.02	16.1%	3.0%	202	+0.19	4.72	326	96
Trent Baker R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	23	SP	4.05	19.3%	10.7%	2.2%	.315	4.07	17.9%	9.5%	296	+0.02	3.88	490	91
Jordan Jackson R 2022 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP	4.15	16.8%	9.7%	2.2%	.323	5.51	13.1%	1.7%	74	+1.36	4.15	193	89
Tony Dibrell R 2019 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP	4.62	16.0%	11.7%	2.5%	.302	5.67	20.5%	6.2%	58	+1.05	4.18	347	89
Shelby Lackey R 2019 · 4.45 FIP	22	SP	4.45	18.2%	10.0%	2.9%	.323	3.98	20.6%	5.7%	65	-0.47	2.92	175	88
Paxton Schultz R 2021 · 4.77 FIP	23	SP	4.77	19.7%	11.6%	3.4%	.353	4.73	19.9%	8.5%	305	-0.04	3.90	538	88
Austin Love R 2022 · 4.34 FIP	23	SP	4.34	20.6%	10.6%	3.0%	.358	3.58	22.1%	9.7%	56	-0.76	3.58	236	88
Adam Hill R 2019 · 5.00 FIP	22	SP	5.00	15.6%	12.6%	3.0%	.297	6.06	19.6%	8.9%	91	+1.06	5.00	213	87
Jonathan Cannon R 2023 · 4.74 FIP	23	SP	4.74	16.1%	8.5%	3.5%	.311	4.68	17.7%	9.7%	415	-0.06	4.33	536	87
Dinelson Lamet R 2015 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	20.1%	11.8%	2.7%	.272	3.69	24.2%	13.1%	293	-0.67	2.11	778	87
Trevor Martin R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	22	SP	4.25	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.297	4.25	19.8%	10.6%	240	+0.00	4.16	350	87
Riley Thompson R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	23	SP	4.69	16.5%	9.4%	3.3%	.288	5.32	21.7%	7.0%	57	+0.63	4.53	340	87
Wyatt Marks R 2018 · 4.20 FIP	23	SP	4.20	21.3%	10.7%	2.8%	.301	6.34	9.5%	-10.4%	18	+2.14	4.20	152	86
Thomas Farr R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	23	SP	5.05	18.0%	9.8%	4.1%	.340	5.31	12.4%	2.9%	280	+0.26	5.05	423	86
Will Warren R 2022 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP	3.83	18.4%	8.6%	2.2%	.299	4.06	23.5%	14.5%	424	+0.23	3.82	695	86
Austin Brice R 2015 · 4.61 FIP	23	SP	4.61	18.5%	13.7%	2.4%	.295	3.72	19.0%	12.0%	222	-0.89	3.42	542	86
Jeff Thompson R 2015 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP	4.51	15.2%	10.9%	2.4%	.306	4.40	15.8%	1.0%	202	-0.11	3.67	321	86
Yeudy Garcia R 2016 · 3.81 FIP	23	SP	3.81	17.5%	11.1%	1.4%	.310	4.59	17.5%	3.7%	187	+0.78	3.42	439	86
Tyler Woessner R 2023 · 4.10 FIP	23	SP	4.10	16.4%	11.8%	1.6%	.307	5.29	17.6%	4.0%	76	+1.19	4.10	197	85
Keyvius Sampson R 2015 · 4.10 FIP	24	SP	4.10	16.9%	12.2%	1.6%	.314	4.55	21.2%	7.9%	181	+0.45	4.10	316	85

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.9	131	20.7%	10.1%	1.22	4.74
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75