Tony Dibrell
P
Syracuse Mets
Age 30
RHP
6'3" / 190 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 16 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125115vR 106
ERA4.66
FIP4.66
K%22.4%
BB%10.0%
K-BB%12.3%
ROS IP17
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 16 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 22 | A | Columbia Fireflies | 23 | 23 | 131 | 560 | 147 | 53 | 10 | 100% | 5.7 | 19.4% | 11.2% | 8.3% | 2.4% | 3.50 | 4.21 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A | Columbia Fireflies | 23 | 23 | 131 | 560 | 147 | 53 | 10 | 100% | 5.7 | 26.2% | 9.5% | 16.8% | 1.8% | 3.50 | 3.06 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 24 | 129 | 553 | 113 | 57 | 12 | 92% | 5.0 | 16.0% | 11.7% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 4.47 | 4.59 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 24 | 129 | 553 | 113 | 57 | 12 | 92% | 5.0 | 20.4% | 10.3% | 10.1% | 2.2% | 4.47 | 3.88 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | 7 | 5 | 28 | 119 | 25 | 12 | 6 | 71% | 4.0 | 17.0% | 11.1% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 4.45 | 6.43 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | 7 | 5 | 28 | 119 | 25 | 12 | 6 | 71% | 4.0 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 10.9% | 5.0% | 4.45 | 5.36 | — |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 12 | 10 | 36 | 158 | 49 | 23 | 3 | 83% | 3.0 | 23.8% | 17.4% | 6.4% | 3.4% | 3.72 | 5.18 | — |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 12 | 10 | 36 | 158 | 49 | 23 | 3 | 83% | 3.0 | 31.0% | 14.6% | 16.5% | 1.9% | 3.72 | 3.38 | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA | Syracuse Mets | 9 | 6 | 29 | 150 | 23 | 24 | 12 | 67% | 3.2 | 13.5% | 16.8% | -3.3% | 8.8% | 10.86 | 8.89 | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA | Syracuse Mets | 9 | 6 | 29 | 150 | 23 | 24 | 12 | 67% | 3.2 | 15.3% | 16.0% | -0.7% | 8.0% | 10.86 | 9.38 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | NYM | 3 | 3 | 17 | 71 | 16 | 7 | 2 | 100% | 5.6 | 22.4% | 10.0% | 12.3% | 3.3% | 4.66 | 4.66 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | NYM | 3 | 3 | 20 | 84 | 19 | 9 | 3 | 100% | 6.7 | 22.1% | 10.3% | 11.8% | 3.5% | 4.75 | 4.83 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | NYM | 1 | 1 | 7 | 30 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 100% | 7.0 | 22.1% | 10.3% | 11.8% | 3.5% | 4.75 | 4.83 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 1 | 1 | 7 | 31 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 100% | 7.4 | 22.1% | 10.3% | 11.8% | 3.5% | 4.75 | 4.45 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 190 | 82 | 27 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.1% | 10.3% | 11.8% | 3.5% | 4.75 | 4.45 | +2.2 | ||
| Career | — | 77 | 68 | 354 | 1540 | 275 | 193 | 53 | 88% | 4.6 | 17.9% | 12.5% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 4.56 | 5.07 | +1.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 44 | 38 | 200 | 871 | 156 | 109 | 30 | 88% | 4.6 | 17.9% | 12.5% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 4.56 | 5.07 | +0.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tony Dibrell (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.66 | 22.4% | 10.0% | 3.3% | — | 4.83 | 22.1% | 11.8% | 20 | +0.17 | — | — | — |
| Zack Segovia R 2028 · 5.00 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.00 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .314 | 3.41 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.59 | 3.41 | 144 | 75 |
| Michael Mariot R 2026 · 5.22 FIP | 30 | SP | 5.22 | 19.8% | 11.1% | 4.3% | .333 | 4.92 | 15.8% | 7.4% | 182 | -0.30 | 2.32 | 676 | 75 |
| Tyler Herron R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.17 | 16.4% | 8.7% | 2.5% | .377 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.17 | 117 | 71 |
| Reinier Roibal R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.86 | 17.5% | 11.8% | 3.2% | .426 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.07 | 133 | 70 |
| Casey Coleman R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.91 | 16.8% | 11.4% | 3.2% | .343 | 4.99 | 17.5% | 8.8% | 107 | +0.08 | 2.86 | 306 | 69 |
| Andrew Triggs R 2025 · 4.57 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.57 | 23.6% | 9.9% | 4.0% | .263 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.66 | 242 | 67 |
| Matt Cain R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.90 | 17.1% | 6.8% | 4.3% | .296 | 4.88 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 214 | -0.02 | 4.83 | 294 | 67 |
| Fabio Castillo R 2024 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.00 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 195 | 67 |
| David Hale R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.17 | 15.4% | 7.5% | 2.6% | .299 | 3.66 | 17.1% | 11.3% | 114 | -0.51 | 3.26 | 493 | 67 |
| Elian Leyva R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.30 | 17.0% | 8.5% | 2.9% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.16 | 158 | 66 |
| Hector Noesí R 2024 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 65 |
| Forrest Snow R 2026 · 5.37 FIP | 30 | SP | 5.37 | 18.8% | 8.5% | 5.1% | .371 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.14 | 406 | 65 |
| Garrett Richards R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.09 | 26.9% | 10.5% | 3.5% | .276 | 4.36 | 19.4% | 10.3% | 188 | +0.27 | 2.34 | 577 | 64 |
| Mat Latos R 2025 · 5.79 FIP | 29 | SP | 5.79 | 16.8% | 11.2% | 4.9% | .309 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 244 | 64 |
| Brandon Morrow R 2027 · 3.67 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.67 | 18.3% | 5.6% | 2.6% | .280 | 3.52 | 21.2% | 14.8% | 153 | -0.15 | 2.68 | 186 | 63 |
| Tim Lincecum R 2027 · 4.20 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.20 | 18.0% | 10.8% | 2.3% | .296 | 5.09 | 17.4% | 6.3% | 89 | +0.89 | 4.20 | 166 | 63 |
| Dennis O'Grady R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.79 | 17.2% | 8.1% | 2.0% | .344 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.79 | 157 | 63 |
| Guillermo Moscoso R 2029 · 3.79 FIP | 33 | SP | 3.79 | 14.5% | 6.9% | 1.9% | .270 | 4.53 | 14.9% | 7.5% | 176 | +0.74 | 3.79 | 264 | 62 |
| Chuck King R 2024 · 3.70 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.70 | 17.8% | 9.3% | 1.7% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.21 | 237 | 62 |
| Cody Anderson R 2024 · 4.36 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.36 | 18.9% | 7.5% | 3.5% | .328 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.75 | 279 | 62 |