Drew Anderson

P Detroit Tigers

Age 33 RHP 6'3" / 205 lbs MLB peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2021	27	MIX2 levels	24	13	93	3.11	3.45	25.1%	9.2%	2.2	K 22.3% · BB 9.6% · FIP 3.90
2024	30	AAADET	9	0	14	3.86	2.74	24.6%	13.8%	—	K 21.2% · BB 12.5% · FIP 2.89
2026	32	MLBDET	49	11	108	3.67	4.08	25.0%	9.2%	0.6
2027PROJ	33	MLBDET	13	13	82	4.18	4.42	24.8%	9.3%	0.9
2028PROJ95% MLB	34	MLBDET	8	8	54	4.51	4.73	23.9%	9.8%	0.4
2029PROJ91% MLB	35	MLBDET	6	6	42	4.68	4.79	24.9%	9.6%	0.3

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.8 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

K%65

FB Velo61

xwOBA vs57

Form2.86 ERA (proj 4.18) · K 20.7% (proj 24.8%) · BB 9.2% (proj 9.3%) ▼ last 60d · 22 IP through Oct 27

CompsMitch Lively (age 31) · Mike Burns (age 31) · Casey Lawrence (age 33)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111103vR 95

ERA4.18

FIP4.42

K%24.8%

BB%9.3%

K-BB%15.4%

Proj IP82

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 82 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5050

CMD5050

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6195.3

Whiff%

p6127.0%

p6524.9%

xwOBA vs

p570.305

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2016	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	15	70	279	78	22	3	100%	4.7	21.1%	9.2%	11.9%	1.6%	2.70	3.37	—
2016	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	15	70	279	78	22	3	100%	4.7	28.0%	7.9%	20.1%	1.1%	2.70	2.37	—
2017	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	22	117	488	95	43	14	92%	4.9	15.6%	9.9%	5.8%	2.9%	3.86	4.60	+1.1
2017	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	24	22	117	488	95	43	14	92%	4.9	19.5%	8.8%	10.7%	2.9%	3.86	4.14	+1.7
2018	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	20	117	496	95	29	14	83%	4.9	17.1%	6.1%	11.0%	3.3%	3.99	4.22	+1.6
2018	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	20	117	496	95	29	14	83%	4.9	19.2%	5.8%	13.3%	2.8%	3.99	3.77	+2.3
2019	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	11	54	253	46	30	10	85%	4.2	15.8%	12.2%	3.5%	5.1%	5.96	6.13	-0.4
2019	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	11	54	253	46	30	10	85%	4.2	18.2%	11.9%	6.3%	4.0%	5.96	5.46	-0.0
2020	26	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	1	0	1	10	2	2	2	0%	1.3	20.0%	20.0%	0.0%	20.0%	40.50	14.92	-0.2
2020	26	MLB RAW	Chicago White Sox	1	0	1	10	2	2	2	0%	1.3	20.0%	20.0%	0.0%	20.0%	40.50	24.10	-0.3
2021	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	13	93	379	95	35	9	54%	3.9	22.3%	9.6%	12.7%	2.7%	3.11	3.90	+1.7
2021	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	13	93	379	95	35	9	54%	3.9	25.1%	9.2%	15.8%	2.4%	3.11	3.45	+2.2
2024	30	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	9	0	14	65	16	9	0	0%	1.6	21.2%	12.5%	8.7%	0.0%	3.86	2.89	—
2024	30	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	9	0	14	65	16	9	0	0%	1.6	21.2%	12.5%	8.7%	0.0%	3.86	2.89	—
2024	30	AAA RAW	Toledo Mud Hens	9	0	14	65	16	9	0	0%	1.6	24.6%	13.8%	10.8%	0.0%	3.86	2.74	—
2026	32	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	49	11	108	456	114	42	16	22%	2.2	25.0%	9.2%	15.8%	3.7%	3.67	4.17	+0.5
2026	32	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	49	11	108	456	114	42	16	22%	2.2	25.0%	9.2%	15.8%	3.7%	3.67	4.17	+0.5
2026	32	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	49	11	108	456	114	42	16	22%	2.2	25.0%	9.2%	15.8%	3.5%	3.67	4.08	+0.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			68	13	152	660	144	57	20	19%	2.2	21.8%	8.6%	13.2%	3.0%	4.49	4.04	+0.9
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	33	MLB	DET	13	13	82	346	86	32	12	100%	6.3	24.8%	9.3%	15.4%	3.4%	4.18	4.42	+0.9
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	34	MLB MLE	DET	9	9	57	241	57	24	9	100%	6.3	23.9%	9.8%	14.0%	3.7%	4.51	4.73	+0.4
2029	35	MLB MLE	DET	7	7	46	196	49	19	8	100%	6.6	24.9%	9.6%	15.3%	4.0%	4.68	4.79	+0.3
2028	34	MLB CTX	DET	8	8	54	228	54	22	8	100%	6.8	23.9%	9.8%	14.0%	3.7%	4.51	4.73	+0.4
2029	35	MLB CTX	DET	6	6	42	177	44	17	7	100%	7.0	24.9%	9.6%	15.3%	4.0%	4.68	4.79	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		83	28	249	1067	243	97	36	34%	3.0	22.8%	9.1%	13.7%	3.3%	4.53	4.15	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		67	22	200	858	195	78	29	34%	3.0	22.8%	9.1%	13.7%	3.3%	4.53	4.15	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		159	92	574	2426	474	224	76	58%	3.6	19.6%	9.2%	10.3%	3.2%	3.87	4.35	+3.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		55	32	200	845	165	78	27	58%	3.6	19.6%	9.2%	10.3%	3.2%	3.87	4.35	+2.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 14 IPFIP 2.78 → 2.89 (+0.12)K% 24.6% → 21.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.62%	—	×0.860	21.17%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.85%	—	×0.900	12.46%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.792	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 58).

Result: FIP 2.78 → 2.89, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAARound Rock Express · 71 IPFIP 3.38 → 3.97 (+0.59)K% 29.9% → 26.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.86%	—	×0.880	26.28%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.07%	—	×1.050	10.57%
HR / BF /BF	2.78%	÷0.958	×1.100	3.19%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 92).

Result: FIP 3.38 → 3.97, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 48 IPFIP 5.28 → 6.13 (+0.85)K% 17.9% → 15.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.94%	—	×0.880	15.78%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.66%	—	×1.050	12.24%
HR / BF /BF	4.04%	÷0.866	×1.100	5.13%

Result: FIP 5.28 → 6.13, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 105 IPFIP 4.02 → 4.52 (+0.50)K% 19.2% → 16.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.22%	—	×0.880	16.92%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.18%	—	×1.050	6.49%
HR / BF /BF	3.20%	÷0.954	×1.100	3.69%

Result: FIP 4.02 → 4.52, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAReading Fightin Phils · 108 IPFIP 4.21 → 4.60 (+0.40)K% 19.3% → 15.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.28%	—	×0.810	15.62%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.97%	—	×1.100	9.87%
HR / BF /BF	2.91%	÷1.220	×1.200	2.87%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 144).

Result: FIP 4.21 → 4.60, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 7 IPFIP 3.85 → 4.26 (+0.41)K% 25.0% → 22.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.00%	—	×0.880	22.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.14%	—	×1.050	7.50%
HR / BF /BF	3.57%	÷1.043	×1.100	3.77%

Result: FIP 3.85 → 4.26, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 ALakewood BlueClaws · 37 IPFIP 2.90 → 4.26 (+1.36)K% 27.7% → 20.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.70%	—	×0.740	20.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.11%	—	×1.180	9.57%
HR / BF /BF	2.03%	÷0.864	×1.300	3.05%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 73).

Result: FIP 2.90 → 4.26, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 A+Clearwater Threshers · 33 IPFIP 1.68 → 2.38 (+0.69)K% 28.2% → 21.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.24%	—	×0.770	21.75%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.63%	—	×1.150	8.78%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.964	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 93).

Result: FIP 1.68 → 2.38, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Drew Anderson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.42	24.8%	9.3%	3.4%	—	4.76	24.3%	14.6%	104	+0.34	—	—	—
Mitch Lively R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	31	SP-	3.47	17.0%	6.4%	1.8%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	2.39	158	63
Mike Burns R 2009 · 4.90 FIP	31	SP-	4.90	17.2%	6.6%	4.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	104	59
Casey Lawrence R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	33	SP-	4.08	20.0%	5.2%	3.7%	.284	4.99	15.9%	10.6%	440	+0.91	3.57	1,374	58
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2018 · 4.89 FIP	33	SP-	4.89	17.9%	7.6%	4.3%	.322	4.82	15.9%	9.5%	147	-0.07	3.97	567	58
Angel Sánchez R 2023 · 4.90 FIP	33	SW	4.90	19.0%	10.5%	3.8%	.333	3.77	11.8%	6.8%	27	-1.13	3.77	284	56
Chris Jakubauskas R 2011 · 4.42 FIP	32	SW	4.42	15.7%	7.9%	3.0%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	165	55
Marco Quevedo R 2019 · 5.17 FIP	32	SP-	5.17	13.6%	11.4%	3.2%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	4.13	300	54
Kenshin Kawakami R 2009 · 3.97 FIP	34	SP-	3.97	15.7%	7.6%	2.2%	.277	4.06	15.1%	9.5%	87	+0.09	3.97	244	54
Josh Lindblom R 2020 · 3.50 FIP	33	SP	3.50	27.2%	8.4%	3.0%	.308	4.46	21.7%	13.8%	255	+0.96	1.83	480	53
Deck McGuire R 2022 · 5.12 FIP	33	SP-	5.12	15.7%	13.1%	3.1%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.41	622	52
Pete Walker R 2002 · 4.59 FIP	33	SP-	4.59	13.4%	7.7%	3.0%	.279	5.16	12.0%	2.8%	139	+0.57	4.45	327	52
Junior Guerra R 2018 · 3.99 FIP	33	SP	3.99	22.3%	9.0%	3.0%	.309	4.12	21.2%	9.1%	173	+0.13	3.18	646	51
Zach Neal R 2022 · 5.53 FIP	33	SP-	5.53	16.1%	5.7%	5.6%	.321	5.98	15.6%	9.6%	101	+0.45	4.24	732	51
Toru Murata R 2016 · 3.63 FIP	31	SW	3.63	12.9%	5.7%	1.6%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	3.63	267	51
Jared Fernandez R 2003 · 3.57 FIP	31	SP-	3.57	11.8%	6.2%	1.2%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.57	101	48
Mike Fyhrie R 2002 · 3.86 FIP	32	SW	3.86	13.7%	9.0%	1.4%	.267	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	173	48
Jarrett Grube R 2015 · 3.75 FIP	33	SP	3.75	18.7%	4.2%	3.1%	.285	4.57	17.3%	9.6%	253	+0.82	3.75	393	48
Angel Castro R 2016 · 5.42 FIP	33	SW	5.42	12.3%	9.1%	4.0%	.304	3.51	14.5%	7.1%	139	-1.91	3.51	292	48
Thad Weber R 2017 · 5.25 FIP	32	SP-	5.25	13.2%	4.4%	4.9%	.398	—	—	—	—	—	4.40	378	47
Ivan Maldonado R 2015 · 4.60 FIP	35	SW	4.60	12.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.269	5.41	6.4%	-3.3%	104	+0.81	4.60	172	47

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	68	23.3%	9.4%	1.30	4.44
Steve Wilson ('88-'93, 0 WAR*)	1.7	69	21.6%*	8.8%*	1.25*	4.84*
Josh Lindblom ('21)	1.0	52	22.1%	9.6%	1.25	4.78
Tyler Lyons ('20)	1.4	57	24.3%	7.6%	1.27	4.30
Dave Tobik ('78-'85, 4 WAR*)	2.0	66	24.5%*	9.3%*	1.33*	3.87*
Félix Peña ('21)	1.3	65	23.9%	8.5%	1.35	4.66
Mike Hartley ('89-'95, 2 WAR*)	1.6	80	24.3%*	9.9%*	1.09*	4.09*