Tyler Glasnow — OGILVIE

Tyler Glasnow P Los Angeles Dodgers

Age 32 RHP 6'8" / 225 lbs MLB Svc 8.0 · Ctrl thru 2028 peak 1.7 · 2027 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2026 ROS PROJECTION40 act + 26 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9485vR 76

ERA3.11

FIP3.23

K%32.0%

BB%9.0%

K-BB%23.0%

ROS IP26

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 66 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—65

STUF6565

CTRL5555

CMD5055

K†7070

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6195.3

Whiff%

p7929.8%

p9033.1%

xwOBA vs

p900.252

FB+4.3 (54%)

SL+1.2 (16%)

SI (25%)

CU (8%)

Contract CONFIRMED · hand-curated extension

Status FA

MLB Debut 2016

Service 8.919 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$10M	+0.4	$2M	-$8M
2027	Ext	$25M	+1.3	$10M	-$13M
2028	Ext	$25M	+0.8	$3M	-$18M
Totals		$60M		$14M	-$39M

Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$39M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2015	21	MIX	2 levels	20	20	104	422	130	41	3	100%	5.2	25.7%	10.4%	15.3%	1.1%	2.34	2.83	—
2015	21	MIX	2 levels	20	20	104	422	130	41	3	100%	5.2	30.8%	9.7%	21.1%	0.7%	2.34	2.16	—
2016	22	MIX	3 levels	29	26	140	570	168	81	7	90%	4.8	26.0%	14.4%	11.6%	1.3%	2.31	3.45	+3.2
2016	22	MIX	3 levels	29	26	140	570	168	81	7	90%	4.8	29.5%	14.2%	15.3%	1.2%	2.31	3.09	+3.8
2017	23	MIX	2 levels	30	28	155	669	196	74	19	93%	5.2	26.8%	11.3%	15.5%	3.4%	4.23	4.12	+2.3
2017	23	MIX	2 levels	30	28	155	669	196	74	19	93%	5.2	29.3%	11.1%	18.2%	2.8%	4.23	3.60	+3.3
2018	24	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	45	11	112	468	136	50	15	24%	2.5	29.1%	10.7%	18.4%	3.4%	4.27	3.86	+2.0
2018	24	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	45	11	112	468	136	50	15	24%	2.5	29.1%	10.7%	18.4%	3.2%	4.27	3.75	+2.2
2019	25	MIX	2 levels	14	14	63	241	79	17	4	100%	4.5	33.0%	6.1%	27.0%	1.8%	1.71	2.09	+1.9
2019	25	MIX	2 levels	14	14	63	241	79	17	4	100%	4.5	32.8%	7.1%	25.7%	1.7%	1.71	2.23	+1.8
2020	26	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	11	11	57	238	91	22	11	100%	5.2	38.2%	9.2%	29.0%	4.9%	4.08	3.73	+0.6
2020	26	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	11	11	57	238	91	22	11	100%	5.2	38.2%	9.2%	29.0%	4.6%	4.08	3.57	+0.7
2021	27	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	14	14	88	340	123	27	10	100%	6.3	36.2%	7.9%	28.2%	3.1%	2.66	2.76	+2.5
2021	27	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	14	14	88	340	123	27	10	100%	6.3	36.2%	7.9%	28.2%	2.9%	2.66	2.70	+2.5
2022	28	MIX	2 levels	6	6	14	52	24	6	1	100%	2.3	46.2%	11.5%	34.6%	1.9%	1.32	1.72	+0.5
2022	28	MIX	2 levels	6	6	14	52	24	6	1	100%	2.3	46.2%	11.5%	34.6%	1.9%	1.32	1.86	+0.4
2023	29	MIX	2 levels	25	25	133	537	182	42	14	100%	5.3	33.4%	7.9%	25.6%	2.7%	3.24	2.77	+4.1
2023	29	MIX	2 levels	25	25	133	537	182	42	14	100%	5.3	33.9%	7.8%	26.1%	2.6%	3.24	2.68	+4.2
2024	30	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	22	22	134	522	168	35	15	100%	6.1	32.2%	6.7%	25.5%	3.0%	3.49	2.90	+3.9
2024	30	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	22	22	134	522	168	35	15	100%	6.1	32.2%	6.7%	25.5%	2.9%	3.49	2.83	+4.0
2025	31	MIX	2 levels	21	21	99	409	118	48	11	100%	4.7	29.0%	11.7%	17.2%	2.9%	3.64	3.73	+1.9
2025	31	MIX	2 levels	21	21	99	409	118	48	11	100%	4.7	28.9%	11.7%	17.1%	2.7%	3.64	3.62	+2.0
▸ 2026 Season
2026	32	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	7	7	40	148	49	12	5	100%	5.7	33.1%	8.1%	25.0%	3.4%	2.72	3.19	+0.6
ROS	32	MLB	LAD	4	4	26	109	35	10	3	100%	6.5	32.0%	9.0%	23.0%	3.1%	3.11	3.23	+0.4
ROS	32	MLB	LAD	4	4	26	110	35	10	3	100%	6.5	32.0%	9.0%	23.0%	3.0%	3.06	3.18	+0.4
2026 TOT	32	MLB	LAD	—	—	66	257	84	22	8	—	—	32.6%	8.5%	24.2%	3.3%	2.88	3.20	+1.1
2026 FULL	32	MLB	LAD	—	—	66	277	84	22	8	—	—	30.3%	7.9%	22.5%	3.0%	2.86	3.18	+1.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	33	MLB	LAD	15	15	89	377	117	36	13	100%	6.0	30.9%	9.5%	21.4%	3.4%	3.75	3.91	+1.3
2028	34	MLB	LAD	14	14	81	344	103	34	13	100%	5.8	30.0%	10.0%	20.0%	3.7%	4.03	4.21	+0.8
2029	35	MLB	LAD	12	12	73	309	96	30	12	100%	6.1	31.0%	9.7%	21.3%	4.0%	4.18	4.28	+0.5
2030	36	MLB	LAD	11	11	65	273	82	28	12	100%	5.9	30.0%	10.3%	19.7%	4.4%	4.46	4.65	-0.0
2031	37	MLB	LAD	9	9	56	239	69	26	11	100%	6.3	28.9%	11.0%	18.0%	4.8%	4.81	5.05	-0.3
2032	38	MLB	LAD	8	8	49	205	57	24	11	100%	6.1	27.8%	11.7%	16.1%	5.2%	5.21	5.48	-0.5
2027	33	MLB	LAD	15	15	89	376	116	36	12	100%	5.9	30.9%	9.5%	21.4%	3.3%	3.70	3.86	+1.4
2028	34	MLB	LAD	14	14	81	342	103	34	12	100%	5.8	30.0%	10.0%	20.0%	3.6%	3.97	4.15	+0.8
2029	35	MLB	LAD	12	12	73	308	96	30	12	100%	6.1	31.0%	9.7%	21.3%	3.9%	4.12	4.22	+0.5
2030	36	MLB	LAD	11	11	65	274	82	28	12	100%	5.9	30.0%	10.3%	19.7%	4.2%	4.39	4.58	+0.1
2031	37	MLB	LAD	9	9	56	236	68	26	11	100%	6.2	28.9%	11.0%	18.0%	4.6%	4.74	4.98	-0.3
2032	38	MLB	LAD	8	8	49	207	57	24	11	100%	6.1	27.8%	11.7%	16.1%	5.1%	5.13	5.40	-0.5
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			248	209	1233	5089	1559	485	172	84%	5.0	30.6%	9.5%	21.1%	3.4%	3.86	3.57	+26.3
/ 200 IP	—			40	34	200	825	253	79	28	84%	5.0	30.6%	9.5%	21.1%	3.4%	3.86	3.57	+4.3
Career	—			244	205	1139	4616	1405	459	125	84%	4.7	30.4%	9.9%	20.5%	2.7%	3.22	3.28	+28.2
/ 200 IP	—			43	36	200	811	247	81	22	84%	4.7	30.4%	9.9%	20.5%	2.7%	3.22	3.28	+5.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tyler Glasnow (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.69	31.1%	9.4%	3.0%	—	4.12	30.6%	20.9%	244	+0.43	—	—	—
Charlie Morton R 2026 · 3.01 FIP	32	SP	3.01	26.8%	11.3%	1.4%	.326	2.90	28.8%	20.7%	508	-0.11	2.55	1,534	43
Zack Wheeler R 2026 · 2.66 FIP	32	SP	2.66	26.9%	5.4%	2.1%	.281	2.81	29.3%	23.5%	542	+0.15	2.31	1,536	43
Aaron Wilkerson R 2026 · 3.31 FIP	32	SP	3.31	24.6%	5.6%	2.9%	.300	5.54	21.8%	14.9%	47	+2.23	2.75	902	41
Matt Shoemaker R 2026 · 3.80 FIP	32	SP	3.80	22.2%	8.3%	2.8%	.181	5.05	18.8%	11.1%	159	+1.25	3.24	592	40
Garrett Richards R 2026 · 4.23 FIP	32	SP-	4.23	21.6%	8.0%	3.5%	.280	4.13	18.8%	9.8%	179	-0.10	2.34	577	40
Jason Hammel R 2026 · 3.43 FIP	32	SP	3.43	24.2%	5.1%	3.2%	.282	4.26	18.4%	11.9%	474	+0.83	3.43	645	40
Kodai Senga R 2026 · 4.01 FIP	32	SP	4.01	22.6%	11.4%	2.5%	.268	6.38	25.5%	10.8%	39	+2.37	3.40	330	40
Tim Adleman R 2025 · 4.57 FIP	31	SP	4.57	22.8%	7.8%	4.4%	.266	4.61	18.5%	11.1%	90	+0.04	3.61	605	39
Tanner Roark R 2026 · 4.36 FIP	32	SP	4.36	21.9%	6.9%	4.1%	.313	4.76	19.6%	9.9%	94	+0.40	3.13	942	39
Brad Peacock R 2025 · 4.04 FIP	31	SP-	4.04	25.1%	8.1%	3.7%	.261	4.12	22.8%	12.5%	96	+0.08	2.88	533	39
Josh Lindblom R 2027 · 3.66 FIP	33	SP	3.66	27.2%	8.4%	3.3%	.308	4.62	21.7%	13.8%	255	+0.96	3.66	348	39
Kenta Maeda R 2026 · 2.86 FIP	32	SP	2.86	32.3%	4.0%	3.6%	.208	3.74	26.2%	19.3%	224	+0.88	2.86	1,092	38
Justin Verlander R 2026 · 3.51 FIP	32	SP	3.51	21.1%	5.8%	2.7%	.265	3.18	29.6%	23.4%	648	-0.33	2.24	1,584	37
Chris Archer R 2026 · 4.41 FIP	32	SP	4.41	25.4%	8.1%	4.4%	.250	4.36	19.2%	8.2%	103	-0.05	2.88	1,018	37
Jose Oyervides R 2027 · 2.98 FIP	33	SP	2.98	19.1%	6.2%	1.3%	.333	4.17	21.9%	14.5%	184	+1.19	2.98	407	37
Jarrett Grube R 2027 · 3.49 FIP	33	SP	3.49	18.7%	4.2%	2.6%	.285	4.58	17.3%	9.6%	253	+1.09	3.49	393	37
Ricky Nolasco R 2026 · 3.21 FIP	32	SP	3.21	20.2%	6.9%	1.7%	.382	4.52	17.9%	11.7%	379	+1.31	3.21	425	36
Tom Koehler R 2025 · 4.71 FIP	31	SP-	4.71	22.4%	9.0%	4.3%	.298	—	—	—	—	—	4.39	474	35
Esmil Rogers R 2025 · 2.88 FIP	31	SP	2.88	21.7%	3.8%	2.1%	.336	5.71	12.5%	3.8%	91	+2.83	2.88	199	35
Yu Darvish R 2026 · 3.83 FIP	32	SP	3.83	31.3%	7.5%	4.4%	.258	3.24	28.0%	22.7%	437	-0.59	1.91	1,253	34

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7	68	30.1%	10.1%	1.53	4.21
Robert Stephenson ('23)	6	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Heath Hembree ('22)	7	45	25.6%	9.4%	1.58	4.22
Michael Feliz ('21)	5	47	30.5%	9.8%	1.48	5.05
Lucas Sims ('24)	6	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Chasen Shreve ('23)	8	43	25.2%	11.0%	1.61	4.06
Dinelson Lamet ('23)	6	61	30.0%	10.7%	1.29	4.66