Tyler Glasnow — OGILVIE

Tyler Glasnow P Los Angeles Dodgers

+1.0 WAR

INJURED · Injured 15-Day (D15)

Age 32 RHP 6'8" / 225 lbs MLB Svc 10.0 · Ctrl thru 2028 peak 1.7 · 2027

ERA3.53

FIP3.61

xFIP2.87

SIERA2.86

K%29.8%

BB%9.4%

K-BB%20.4%

IP97

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.7peak

2027

K†7070

FB Velo

p6195.3

Whiff%

p6928.2%

p9030.5%

xwOBA vs

p900.260

FB+4.3 (54%)

SL+1.2 (16%)

SI (25%)

CU (9%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2015	21	AAA	Indianapolis Indians	20	20	104	422	130	41	3	25.7%	10.4%	0.9%	2.34	2.74	+3.0
2016	22	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	29	26	140	570	168	81	7	26.0%	14.4%	1.3%	2.31	3.44	+3.0
2017	23	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	30	28	155	669	196	74	19	26.8%	11.3%	3.2%	4.23	4.02	+2.3
2018	24	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	45	11	112	468	136	50	15	29.1%	10.7%	3.7%	4.27	4.01	+1.6
2019	25	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	14	14	63	241	79	17	4	33.0%	6.1%	1.8%	1.71	2.07	+2.1
2020	26	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	11	11	57	238	91	22	11	38.2%	9.2%	5.0%	4.08	3.76	+0.8
2021	27	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	14	14	88	340	123	27	10	36.2%	7.9%	3.1%	2.66	2.75	+2.4
2022	28	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	6	6	14	52	24	6	1	—	—	—	1.32	—	—
2023	29	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	25	25	133	537	182	42	14	33.4%	7.9%	2.5%	3.24	2.63	+4.0
2024	30	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	22	22	134	522	168	35	15	32.2%	6.7%	2.7%	3.49	2.74	+3.9
2025	31	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	21	21	99	409	118	48	11	29.0%	11.7%	2.4%	3.64	3.45	+2.1
▸ 2026 Season
2026	32	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	3	3	18	71	22	4	2	31.0%	5.6%	2.8%	4.00	2.74	+0.5
ROS	32	MLB	PIT	31	—	31	130	40	11	4	31.1%	8.7%	2.7%	2.98	3.07	+0.7
2026 Total	32	MLB	PIT	—	—	49	201	62	15	6	31.0%	7.6%	2.8%	3.36	2.95	+1.1
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	33	MLB	PIT	17	17	93	393	119	35	11	30.4%	8.9%	2.8%	3.49	3.58	+1.7
2028	34	MLB	PIT	16	16	88	373	111	34	11	29.7%	9.1%	2.9%	3.63	3.72	+1.5
2029	35	MLB	PIT	15	15	83	351	102	33	11	29.0%	9.4%	3.0%	3.78	3.87	+1.2
2030	36	MLB	PIT	14	14	78	328	99	29	10	30.2%	8.8%	3.1%	3.77	3.77	+1.2
2031	37	MLB	PIT	13	13	72	305	90	28	10	29.4%	9.1%	3.3%	3.87	3.94	+0.9
2032	38	MLB	PIT	12	12	66	280	80	26	10	28.5%	9.4%	3.4%	4.02	4.13	+0.7
2033	39	MLB	PIT	11	11	61	258	71	25	9	27.7%	9.7%	3.5%	4.20	4.31	+0.5
2034	40	MLB	PIT	56	—	56	237	64	24	9	26.9%	10.0%	3.7%	4.38	4.50	+0.3
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			240	201	1117	4539	1378	451	117	30.4%	9.9%	2.6%	3.25	3.21	+26.5
/ 200 IP	—			43	36	200	812	247	81	21	30.4%	9.9%	2.6%	3.25	3.21	+4.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tyler Glasnow (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.52	31.1%	9.4%	2.7%	—	3.72	29.7%	20.6%	264	+0.20	—	—	—
John Axford R 2026 · 3.28 FIP	32	SW	3.28	24.8%	11.2%	1.6%	.333	3.94	21.5%	11.1%	141	+0.66	3.28	197	58
Juan Nicasio R 2026 · 3.14 FIP	32	SU	3.14	20.7%	7.4%	1.6%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	2.46	338	58
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2027 · 4.47 FIP	33	SW	4.47	26.2%	11.2%	3.9%	.263	3.98	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.49	3.98	104	57
Jared Hughes R 2026 · 3.28 FIP	32	SW	3.28	19.7%	7.8%	1.6%	.260	3.89	19.3%	10.9%	172	+0.61	2.96	358	56
Pedro Strop R 2026 · 3.02 FIP	32	SW	3.02	26.0%	10.0%	1.5%	.263	3.46	25.3%	16.4%	101	+0.44	2.58	277	55
Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.65 FIP	32	SW	3.65	22.0%	7.3%	2.7%	.256	4.36	20.5%	9.0%	16	+0.71	3.65	137	55
Jumbo Diaz R 2026 · 3.88 FIP	32	SW	3.88	22.3%	9.2%	2.7%	.247	3.28	23.0%	13.8%	141	-0.60	2.80	284	55
Yoshihisa Hirano R 2028 · 3.43 FIP	34	SW	3.43	22.5%	7.3%	2.4%	.242	3.91	24.6%	15.2%	65	+0.48	3.43	132	55
Blake Wood R 2025 · 3.35 FIP	31	SW	3.35	25.3%	9.3%	2.2%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	2.91	210	55
Mike Broadway R 2025 · 4.63 FIP	31	SU	4.63	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	54
Jake Petricka R 2025 · 3.04 FIP	31	SU	3.04	23.4%	7.7%	1.7%	.323	4.02	18.8%	10.8%	60	+0.98	3.04	252	54
Santiago Casilla R 2029 · 3.50 FIP	35	SW	3.50	25.4%	8.6%	2.6%	.290	3.90	22.4%	12.7%	161	+0.40	3.50	219	54
Ross Ohlendorf R 2026 · 3.33 FIP	32	SW	3.33	23.7%	7.2%	2.4%	.342	4.98	23.4%	12.7%	66	+1.65	3.33	122	54
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2026 · 3.63 FIP	32	SU	3.63	20.4%	10.0%	1.8%	.331	6.11	17.9%	3.7%	41	+2.48	3.45	170	54
James Hoyt R 2026 · 3.45 FIP	32	SU	3.45	22.2%	9.9%	1.8%	.355	5.57	22.1%	10.4%	50	+2.12	1.61	312	53
Joakim Soria R 2026 · 4.37 FIP	32	SW	4.37	23.2%	9.2%	3.8%	.319	2.59	28.5%	21.7%	186	-1.78	2.00	380	53
Ryan Cook R 2025 · 3.85 FIP	31	SW	3.85	25.1%	10.8%	2.7%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.85	102	53
Chad Gaudin R 2027 · 2.66 FIP	33	SU	2.66	22.8%	6.8%	1.1%	.325	3.16	21.8%	13.9%	58	+0.50	2.02	102	53
Mark Serrano R 2025 · 3.63 FIP	31	SU	3.63	21.9%	6.4%	2.9%	.240	5.25	20.2%	12.3%	42	+1.62	3.10	120	52
Fernando Cruz R 2026 · 2.94 FIP	32	SW	2.94	27.4%	10.0%	1.6%	.254	2.70	36.3%	25.3%	181	-0.24	2.44	316	52

Contract

CONFIRMED · hand-curated extension

Status FA

MLB Debut 2016

Service 10.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Ext / FA-deal	$25M	+1.0	$8M	-$17M
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$25M	+1.7	$14M	-$11M
2028	Ext / FA-deal	$25M	+1.5	$13M	-$12M
Totals		$75M		$35M	-$40M

Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$40M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.