Daylen Lile

LF Washington Nationals

Age 24 L/R 5'11" / 195 lbs MLB Svc 1.698 · Ctrl thru 2031

Overview

MLB40-MANPre-ArbFA 2032

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	21	AA/A+WSH	560	.262/.351/.388	6	25	72	—	.224/.292/.327
2025	22	AAA/AAWSH	213	.328/.377/.503	4	12	113	—	.300/.340/.465
2025	22	MLBWSH	351	.299/.349/.498	9	8	141	0.9
2026	23	MLBWSH	655	.246/.299/.429	22	15	102	0.9
2027PROJ	24	MLBWSH	614	.261/.314/.436	19	34	111	2.1
2028PROJ98% MLB	25	MLBWSH	602	.262/.315/.438	19	33	112	2.1
2029PROJ98% MLB	26	MLBWSH	602	.261/.315/.438	19	33	112	2.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.8 · Next 3 projected WAR 6.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2031Service1.698First FA2032

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Arb-1$5M2030Arb-2$8M2031Arb-3$11M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025-2026

Speed90

xwOBA71

Barrel%49

Avg EV44

Bat Spd43

Form.260/.315/.455 · rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .263/.313/.443

CompsAndrés Giménez (age 25) · Jake McCarthy (age 26) · Tyler Black (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 90111vR 118

AVG/OBP/SLG.261 / .314 / .436

PA614

HR19

SB34

K%19

BB%6

BABIP297

ISO175

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$49M ctrl surplus

Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 60 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2025-2026

CONTACT60

xAVG

750.271

POWER40

Barrel%

498.1

Avg EV

4488.7

Bat Spd

4370.6

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED60

Sprint

9029.4

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%20%·20% over 95 PA (60d) · proj 19%

BB%7%▲7% over 95 PA (60d) · proj 6%

ISO.195▲.224 over 85 AB (60d) · proj .180

HR/BB4.8%▲5.8% over 69 BBE (60d) · proj 4.2%

BABIP.294▼.215 over 65 BIP (60d) · proj .300

SLASH.260/.315/.455·proj .263/.313/.443

Platoon Splits2025-2026 · 473 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

113

360

—

wRC+

142

▶▶R

wOBA

305

378

▶▶R

ISO

096

213

▶▶R

BABIP

324

335

▶R

21.2%

13.9%

▶▶R

BB%

6.2%

6.9%

▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 1.698 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.6	$13M	+$12M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.1	$16M	+$15M
2029	Arb-1	$5M	+2.1	$14M	+$10M
2030	Arb-2	$8M	+1.9	$12M	+$6M
2031	Arb-3	$11M	+1.6	$9M	+$2M
Totals		$25M		$64M	+$46M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	18	ROK	FCL Nationals	—	80	64	14	2	0	0	15	20	0	2	1	219	367	250	617	31	311	25	19	299	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A+	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	171	154	36	7	3	2	16	41	1	2	3	234	310	357	667	123	306	24	9	302	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	294	251	73	20	7	7	36	58	3	21	3	291	386	510	896	219	347	20	12	388	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	AA	Harrisburg Senators	—	316	275	70	15	4	3	33	58	5	11	3	255	345	371	716	116	310	18	10	323	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A+	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	244	210	57	8	6	3	21	39	8	14	2	271	360	410	769	138	312	16	9	340	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	MLB	Washington Nationals	—	351	321	96	15	11	9	21	56	4	8	6	299	349	498	847	199	336	16	6	366	141	+17	-1	-9	-6	+8	0.9
2025	22	AAA	Rochester Red Wings	—	119	104	35	7	2	2	11	20	2	6	2	337	407	500	907	163	398	17	9	397	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AA	Harrisburg Senators	—	94	91	29	5	3	2	3	13	0	6	1	319	340	505	846	187	355	14	3	369	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	MLB	Washington Nationals	—	655	602	148	28	8	22	40	127	6	15	7	246	299	429	728	183	274	19	6	318	102	+1	+0	+0	-7	+14	0.9
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1006	923	244	43	19	31	61	183	10	23	13	264	317	453	769	189	296	18	6	335	113	+15	-1	-9	-13	+22	1.5
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	18	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	—	80	70	10	1	0	0	9	29	0	2	1	143	241	157	398	14	246	36	11	205	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	171	160	31	6	3	2	10	55	1	2	3	194	246	306	552	113	277	32	6	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	294	265	60	15	5	6	22	81	3	21	3	226	293	389	682	162	287	28	7	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	—	316	285	65	13	4	2	23	70	5	11	3	228	297	323	620	95	291	22	7	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	244	219	48	6	5	3	12	52	8	14	2	219	285	333	618	114	257	21	5	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	351	322	98	15	13	9	21	56	4	8	6	304	354	516	870	211	336	16	6	376	141	+17	-1	-9	-6	+8	0.9
2025	22	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	—	119	108	33	6	2	2	8	23	2	6	2	306	364	454	818	148	362	19	7	344	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	—	94	92	27	5	3	2	2	16	0	6	1	293	309	478	787	185	336	17	2	324	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	655	605	150	28	10	22	37	127	6	15	7	248	298	436	734	188	274	19	6	318	102	+1	+0	+0	-7	+14	0.9
2021	18	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	—	80	70	10	1	0	0	9	29	0	2	1	143	241	157	398	14	238	36	11	205	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	FCL Nationals	—	80	64	14	2	0	0	15	20	0	2	1	219	367	250	617	31	311	25	19	299	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	465	425	91	21	8	8	32	136	4	23	6	214	275	358	633	144	291	29	7	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A RAW	2 teams	—	465	405	109	27	10	9	52	99	4	23	6	269	358	452	810	183	332	21	11	357	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	AA MLE	2 teams	—	560	504	113	20	9	5	35	123	13	25	5	224	292	329	621	105	282	22	6	274	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	AA RAW	2 teams	—	560	485	127	23	10	6	54	97	13	25	5	262	351	388	739	126	311	17	10	330	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	564	522	156	25	18	12	31	95	6	20	9	299	345	485	830	186	344	17	5	361	130	+20	+0	-9	-6	+12	1.8
2025	22	MLB RAW	3 teams	—	564	516	160	27	16	13	35	89	6	20	9	310	360	500	860	190	352	16	6	373	130	+20	+0	-9	-6	+12	1.8
2026	23	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	655	605	150	28	10	22	37	127	6	15	7	248	298	436	734	188	276	19	6	318	102	+1	+0	+0	-7	+14	0.9
2026	23	MLB RAW	Washington Nationals	—	655	602	148	28	8	22	40	127	6	15	7	246	299	429	728	183	274	19	6	318	102	+1	+0	+0	-7	+14	0.9
2021	18	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	—	80	71	10	1	0	0	9	29	0	2	1	141	241	155	395	14	246	36	11	205	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	465	426	91	21	8	8	32	136	4	23	6	214	275	357	632	143	283	29	7	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	AA MLE	2 teams	—	560	507	113	20	9	5	35	123	13	25	5	223	292	327	619	105	276	22	6	274	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	564	522	156	25	18	12	31	95	6	20	9	299	345	485	830	186	341	17	5	361	130	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	655	607	150	28	10	22	37	127	6	15	7	247	298	435	733	188	274	19	6	318	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	21	AA MLE	2 teams	—	560	507	113	20	9	5	35	123	13	25	5	223	292	327	619	105	276	22	6	274	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	564	522	156	25	18	12	31	95	6	20	9	299	345	485	830	186	341	17	5	361	130	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	655	607	150	28	10	22	37	127	6	15	7	247	298	435	733	188	274	19	6	318	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	24	MLB MLE	WSH	100%	637	587	155	27	10	20	39	123	6	35	6	263	316	443	759	180	300	19	6	333	111	+8	+5	+1	-7	+14	1.6
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	24	MLB CTX	WSH	100%	614	565	147	26	8	19	38	119	6	34	6	261	314	436	750	175	297	19	6	329	111	+8	+4	+1	-7	+13	2.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	WSH	98%	614	565	149	26	10	19	38	119	6	34	6	264	317	445	762	182	300	19	6	334	112	+9	+4	+1	-7	+13	2.1
2029	26	MLB MLE	WSH	98%	614	565	149	26	10	19	38	119	6	34	6	263	317	445	762	182	300	19	6	334	112	+9	+4	+1	-7	+13	2.1
2030	27	MLB MLE	WSH	98%	606	557	146	25	9	19	38	118	6	33	6	262	316	442	758	180	299	19	6	332	111	+8	+4	+1	-6	+13	2.0
2031	28	MLB MLE	WSH	98%	592	545	142	25	9	18	37	116	5	29	5	260	313	437	751	177	298	20	6	329	109	+6	+4	+0	-6	+13	1.7
2032	29	MLB MLE	WSH	98%	571	526	136	23	9	17	35	114	5	24	5	257	310	430	741	173	296	20	6	325	106	+4	+3	-1	-6	+12	1.3
2033	30	MLB MLE	WSH	98%	555	511	130	22	8	16	34	113	5	20	4	254	306	422	728	168	294	20	6	320	103	+2	+2	-1	-6	+12	0.9
2034	31	MLB MLE	WSH	98%	536	495	124	21	8	15	32	111	4	14	3	248	300	410	710	162	290	21	6	313	98	-1	+2	-2	-6	+12	0.4
2035	32	MLB MLE	WSH	98%	512	473	114	19	7	13	30	108	4	8	2	242	292	395	688	154	284	21	6	303	91	-5	+1	-3	-5	+11	-0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	WSH	98%	602	554	145	26	8	19	37	116	6	33	6	262	315	438	753	177	297	19	6	330	112	+9	+4	+1	-6	+13	2.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	WSH	98%	602	553	145	26	8	19	38	116	6	33	6	261	315	438	752	176	297	19	6	330	112	+9	+4	+1	-6	+13	2.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	WSH	98%	594	546	142	25	8	18	37	116	6	32	6	260	314	435	748	175	296	20	6	329	111	+8	+4	+1	-6	+13	1.9
2031	28	MLB CTX	WSH	98%	580	534	137	24	7	18	36	114	5	28	5	258	311	430	741	172	295	20	6	326	109	+6	+4	+0	-6	+13	1.6
2032	29	MLB CTX	WSH	98%	560	515	132	23	7	17	35	112	5	24	4	255	308	423	732	168	294	20	6	322	106	+4	+3	-1	-6	+12	1.3
2033	30	MLB CTX	WSH	98%	544	501	127	22	7	16	33	110	5	19	4	251	304	415	719	163	291	20	6	316	103	+2	+2	-1	-6	+12	0.9
2034	31	MLB CTX	WSH	98%	525	484	119	21	6	14	32	108	4	13	3	246	298	403	702	157	287	21	6	309	98	-1	+1	-2	-6	+11	0.4
2035	32	MLB CTX	WSH	98%	502	463	112	19	6	13	30	106	4	8	2	240	291	389	679	149	281	21	6	300	91	-5	+1	-3	-5	+11	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	5515	5073	1303	229	76	165	339	1081	51	213	49	257	310	430	739	173	295	20	6	323	102	+46	+23	-13	-61	+119	11.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	598	153	27	9	19	40	127	6	25	6	256	309	426	735	171	294	20	6	323	102	+5	+3	-2	-7	+14	1.4
Career	—	MLE		—	7538	6928	1759	308	125	202	464	1547	76	315	71	254	308	422	730	168	298	21	6	319	102	+54	+28	-13	-69	+135	13.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	597	152	27	11	17	40	133	7	27	6	255	309	422	731	168	299	20	6	319	102	+6	+3	-1	-7	+14	1.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAARochester Red Wings · 119 PAwOBA .390 → .344 (−46)K% 16.8% → 19.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.81%	÷1.028	×1.200	—	—	19.62%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.24%	÷0.978	×0.690	—	×1.050	6.85%
HBP% /PA	1.68%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	1.66%
Singles /BIP	28.57%	÷0.987	×0.930	×0.955	×1.050	27.00%
Doubles /BIP	8.33%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.955	×1.050	6.94%
Triples /BIP	2.38%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.955	×1.050	2.01%
Home runs /BIP	2.38%	÷0.960	×0.700	—	×1.050	1.82%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 97, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 106, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.955.

Result: wOBA .390 → .344; ISO .163 → .135; BABIP .398 → .362. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAHarrisburg Senators · 94 PAwOBA .359 → .324 (−35)K% 13.8% → 16.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.83%	÷0.997	×1.220	—	—	16.93%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	3.19%	÷0.967	×0.700	—	×1.027	2.37%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.850	—	×1.027	0.00%
Singles /BIP	24.36%	÷1.009	×0.970	×0.952	×1.027	22.91%
Doubles /BIP	6.41%	÷0.887	×0.860	×0.952	×1.027	6.08%
Triples /BIP	3.85%	÷0.913	×0.950	×0.952	×1.027	3.91%
Home runs /BIP	2.56%	÷0.963	×0.780	—	×1.027	2.13%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 102, 2B 77, 3B 83, K 99, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.952.

Result: wOBA .359 → .324; ISO .187 → .169; BABIP .355 → .336. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAHarrisburg Senators · 316 PAwOBA .317 → .279 (−39)K% 18.4% → 22.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.35%	÷1.008	×1.220	—	—	22.21%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.44%	÷1.051	×0.700	—	×1.042	7.25%
HBP% /PA	1.58%	—	×0.850	—	×1.042	1.40%
Singles /BIP	22.12%	÷1.010	×0.970	×0.950	×1.042	21.02%
Doubles /BIP	6.91%	÷0.964	×0.860	×0.950	×1.042	6.10%
Triples /BIP	1.84%	÷0.915	×0.950	×0.950	×1.042	1.90%
Home runs /BIP	1.38%	÷0.990	×0.780	—	×1.042	1.14%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 102, 2B 93, 3B 83, K 102, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .317 → .279; ISO .116 → .106; BABIP .310 → .291. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 244 PAwOBA .338 → .267 (−71)K% 16.0% → 21.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.98%	÷0.974	×1.310	—	—	21.49%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.61%	÷1.015	×0.600	—	×1.012	5.15%
HBP% /PA	3.28%	—	×0.770	—	×1.012	2.55%
Singles /BIP	23.39%	÷1.008	×0.870	×0.950	×1.012	19.41%
Doubles /BIP	4.68%	÷0.942	×0.780	×0.950	×1.012	3.73%
Triples /BIP	3.51%	÷0.984	×0.850	×0.950	×1.012	2.91%
Home runs /BIP	1.75%	÷1.016	×0.880	—	×1.012	1.54%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 102, 2B 88, 3B 97, K 95, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .338 → .267; ISO .138 → .117; BABIP .312 → .257. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AFredericksburg Nationals · 294 PAwOBA .384 → .295 (−89)K% 19.7% → 27.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.73%	÷0.978	×1.360	—	—	27.45%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.24%	÷1.126	×0.690	—	×1.015	7.61%
HBP% /PA	1.02%	—	×0.780	—	×1.015	0.81%
Singles /BIP	20.21%	÷1.016	×0.920	×0.957	×1.015	17.78%
Doubles /BIP	10.36%	÷1.065	×0.830	×0.957	×1.015	7.84%
Triples /BIP	3.63%	÷1.150	×0.910	×0.957	×1.015	2.79%
Home runs /BIP	3.63%	÷0.917	×0.800	—	×1.015	3.21%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 103, 2B 113, 3B 130, K 96, BB 125 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.957.

Result: wOBA .384 → .295; ISO .219 → .173; BABIP .347 → .287. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 171 PAwOBA .294 → .235 (−60)K% 24.0% → 32.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.98%	÷0.973	×1.310	—	—	32.29%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.36%	÷1.005	×0.600	—	×1.027	5.74%
HBP% /PA	0.58%	—	×0.770	—	×1.027	0.46%
Singles /BIP	21.24%	÷0.981	×0.870	×0.990	×1.027	19.16%
Doubles /BIP	6.19%	÷0.894	×0.780	×0.990	×1.027	5.50%
Triples /BIP	2.65%	÷0.913	×0.850	×0.990	×1.027	2.51%
Home runs /BIP	1.77%	÷0.913	×0.880	—	×1.027	1.75%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 96, 2B 79, 3B 83, K 95, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.

Result: wOBA .294 → .235; ISO .123 → .108; BABIP .306 → .277. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKFCL Nationals · 80 PAwOBA .296 → .205 (−91)K% 25.0% → 36.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.00%	÷0.996	×1.440	—	—	36.13%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	18.75%	÷1.009	×0.620	—	×1.008	11.61%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.720	—	×1.008	0.00%
Singles /BIP	27.27%	÷1.027	×0.820	×0.997	×1.008	21.87%
Doubles /BIP	4.55%	÷0.989	×0.720	×0.997	×1.008	3.32%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.720	×0.997	×1.008	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.017	×0.780	—	×1.008	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 105, 2B 98, 3B 100, K 99, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.997.

Result: wOBA .296 → .205; ISO .031 → .022; BABIP .311 → .246. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Raul Mondesi'93-'05 * career totals — 13 seasons, 6,369 PA	9.6	6,369	271	229	262*	319*	474*	-60	-3	27.6	26.0
/162	664	28	24	-6.2	-0.3	2.9	pk7: 24
#2Alex Rioslast yr '15 career totals — 12 seasons, 6,929 PA	10.4	6,929	169	253	277	321	434	-57	+11	25.0	25.4
/162	664	16	24	-5.5	+1.0	2.4	pk7: 26
#3Tommy Harper'62-'76 * career totals — 14 seasons, 7,164 PA	10.8	7,164	146	408	259*	343*	417*	-51	+4	24.7	23.5
/162	664	14	38	-4.7	+0.4	2.3	pk7: 22
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 11 projected seasons	9.2	6,128	183	249	260	309	436	-66	-60	18.3	16.6
/162	664	20	27	-7.1	-6.5	2.0	pk7: 15
#4Tommy Phamlast yr '25 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,826 PA	7.3	4,826	149	131	257	345	422	-38	-44	16.1	16.3
/162	664	21	18	-5.3	-6.1	2.2	pk7: 17
#5Wil Myerslast yr '23 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,290 PA	6.5	4,290	156	107	252	326	437	-47	-45	10.7	10.8
/162	664	24	17	-7.3	-6.9	1.7	pk7: 11
#6Juan Encarnacion'97-'07 * career totals — 10 seasons, 5,095 PA	7.7	5,095	156	127	258*	304*	426*	-35	-21	9.1	9.1
/162	664	20	17	-4.6	-2.7	1.2	pk7: 9

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Daylen Lile (OGILVIE)	24	60	40	60	50	261/313/439	179	300	19	34	19%	6%	111	+2.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Andrés Giménez 2024 · MLB	25	52→59	49→50	57→55	44	261/322/416	155	305	16	24	20%	5%	109	+2.0	242/298/355	113	279	11	24	17%	5%	85	+0.2	235/289/332	98	272	10	24	17%	4%	77	-0.3
✕Jake McCarthy 2023 · MLB	26	53→60	49→50	62→60	46	259/323/418	158	325	15	33	24%	7%	109	+2.0	262/323/386	124	312	11	32	19%	7%	101	+1.4	258/314/387	129	298	10	28	16%	6%	98	+1.0
✕Tyler Black 2024 · AAA	24	51→53	48→50	63→60	54	248/344/409	162	313	13	33	23%	11%	115	+2.4	235/325/365	130	309	11	28	25%	10%	98	+1.2	225/318/339	114	302	9	27	26%	10%	86	+0.2
●Desmond Jennings 2012 · MLB	25	52→61	47→50	62→60	51	256/329/403	147	303	13	32	20%	8%	108	+1.9	245/319/395	150	294	14	25	21%	9%	102	+1.5	242/317/388	146	288	13	23	20%	9%	101	+1.3
●Kolten Wong 2015 · MLB	24	52→58	46→50	58→55	45	258/301/387	128	291	13	23	16%	5%	93	+0.8	257/319/390	133	291	12	16	16%	7%	101	+1.4	272/342/411	139	310	13	20	16%	7%	116	+1.7
✕Leonys Martin 2014 · MLB	26	53→56	46→50	58→60	46	258/310/396	138	305	12	31	20%	6%	99	+1.2	248/299/358	110	305	11	28	21%	6%	86	+0.3	241/296/382	141	305	16	24	25%	6%	90	+0.5
●Josh Lowe 2022 · AAA	24	48→57	51→55	58→60	46	239/306/402	163	322	19	25	31%	9%	99	+1.3	253/309/420	167	358	18	28	32%	7%	104	+1.6	254/307/424	170	356	18	33	32%	7%	104	+1.4
✕Josh Smith 2022 · AA	24	50→53	50→45	56→50	48	247/333/406	159	303	17	23	24%	8%	111	+2.1	232/323/356	124	290	11	13	22%	9%	96	+1.0	240/326/364	124	289	12	10	20%	9%	98	+0.9
●Gregory Polanco 2016 · MLB	24	52→57	45→60	54→55	49	256/312/387	131	301	12	24	19%	8%	97	+1.1	252/311/431	179	286	20	17	19%	8%	108	+1.9	250/314/453	203	277	24	14	19%	8%	115	+2.1
✕Cameron Maybin 2012 · MLB	25	55→60	45→50	60→55	47	263/322/398	135	332	11	27	23%	8%	103	+1.6	242/302/363	121	296	10	24	21%	8%	88	+0.5	258/330/374	116	309	11	30	19%	9%	102	+1.2
✕Ryan Kalish 2012 · MLB	24	49→53	47→50	56→55	48	246/305/387	142	295	14	24	22%	8%	95	+1.0	226/278/329	103	300	9	19	26%	7%	71	-0.8	217/264/312	94	293	8	20	27%	6%	59	-0.9
●Peter Bourjos 2011 · MLB	24	51→56	46→50	63→60	42	249/291/387	138	301	12	28	22%	4%	90	+0.6	249/304/389	140	312	12	20	23%	6%	95	+1.0	250/311/388	138	319	11	18	24%	6%	98	+0.7
✕Victor Robles 2020 · MLB	23	51→54	48→50	55→60	44	251/318/402	152	304	14	26	22%	6%	104	+1.6	228/300/350	122	292	11	19	25%	6%	86	+0.3	282/353/387	104	351	6	51	19%	6%	113	+0.7
✕Corey Patterson 2005 · MLB	25	52→54	53→55	57→60	41	266/306/445	179	320	20	24	24%	5%	109	+2.0	249/287/401	152	293	18	32	21%	4%	91	+0.7	246/281/382	136	283	15	39	19%	4%	85	+0.2
✕Leo Heras 2014 · AAA	24	54→64	48→50	55	48	266/324/412	146	317	14	18	20%	7%	107	+1.9	226/297/342	116	289	9	18	23%	9%	82	-0.0	242/316/372	130	313	11	18	24%	9%	93	+0.5
✕Akil Baddoo 2023 · MLB	24	51→53	46→50	54→55	51	244/320/382	138	321	12	22	26%	10%	99	+1.3	221/300/371	150	291	15	25	27%	10%	90	+0.6	213/293/369	156	278	16	28	28%	10%	85	+0.2
✕Dustin Harris 2024 · AAA	25	45→55	49→50	59→60	49	228/305/379	151	286	16	26	26%	9%	94	+0.9	242/308/364	122	304	11	30	23%	8%	91	+0.7	253/317/371	118	309	11	34	21%	7%	94	+0.7
●Michael Harris II 2024 · MLB	23	57→59	53→60	57→55	43	284/326/466	182	337	19	23	22%	5%	122	+2.9	269/302/438	169	310	20	16	20%	4%	106	+1.8	268/297/436	169	304	21	14	20%	3%	105	+1.6
●Domonic Brown 2012 · MLB	24	52→57	49→55	52→55	50	256/324/410	154	311	16	19	23%	9%	107	+1.9	252/306/406	154	291	16	10	19%	7%	100	+1.3	250/298/402	152	282	17	7	18%	6%	96	+0.9
●Garrett Mitchell 2023 · MLB	24	53→59	44→50	60	44	244/316/363	119	364	11	28	34%	9%	94	+0.9	244/317/398	154	348	15	24	31%	9%	102	+1.5	257/341/429	172	366	16	21	31%	10%	119	+1.4

Daylen Lile

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps