Ben Brown
P
Chicago Cubs
+1.0
WAR
Age 26
RHP
6'6" / 210 lbs
MLB
Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030
peak 1.0 · 2028
ERA4.57
FIP4.17
xFIP3.15
SIERA3.05
K%25.9%
BB%7.9%
K-BB%18.0%
IP89
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.0peak
2028
K†6565
FB Velo
p7896.5
Whiff%
p5626.2%
K%
p7126.0%
xwOBA vs
p900.274
CH (6%)
SI (23%)
CU (35%)
FB (59%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 17 | ROK | GCL Phillies | 10 | 0 | 14 | 59 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 11.5% | 12.7% | 0.0% | 2.57 | 3.74 | +0.2 |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | GCL Phillies West | 10 | 8 | 49 | 204 | 62 | 15 | 2 | 20.7% | 9.2% | 1.4% | 3.12 | 3.27 | +0.9 |
| 2019 | 19 | A | Lakewood BlueClaws | 4 | 1 | 14 | 54 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 27.4% | 6.6% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 1.62 | +0.5 |
| 2021 | 21 | A+ | Jersey Shore BlueClaws | 7 | 4 | 16 | 70 | 17 | 8 | 2 | 20.0% | 14.9% | 4.6% | 6.19 | 5.83 | -0.2 |
| 2022 | 22 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | 23 | 22 | 104 | 434 | 149 | 36 | 10 | 26.8% | 9.4% | 3.0% | 3.38 | 3.69 | +1.9 |
| 2023 | 23 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | 26 | 19 | 93 | 399 | 130 | 56 | 10 | 28.1% | 14.8% | 2.8% | 4.27 | 4.15 | +1.1 |
| 2024 | 24 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 15 | 8 | 55 | 222 | 64 | 19 | 5 | 28.8% | 8.6% | 2.3% | 3.58 | 3.00 | +1.2 |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 28 | 17 | 117 | 512 | 129 | 34 | 19 | 25.6% | 6.8% | 4.0% | 5.45 | 3.97 | +1.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 6 | 0 | 15 | 57 | 14 | 5 | 1 | 24.6% | 8.8% | 1.8% | 3.07 | 3.10 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | CHC | 12 | 12 | 68 | 289 | 76 | 23 | 10 | 26.5% | 8.1% | 3.4% | 4.20 | 3.74 | +1.0 |
| 2026 Total | 26 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 83 | 346 | 90 | 28 | 11 | 26.2% | 8.2% | 3.1% | 4.00 | 3.62 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CHC | 15 | 15 | 81 | 340 | 90 | 27 | 12 | 26.6% | 8.1% | 3.4% | 4.31 | 4.13 | +0.9 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | CHC | 14 | 14 | 76 | 320 | 91 | 23 | 11 | 28.5% | 7.3% | 3.4% | 4.06 | 3.89 | +1.0 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | CHC | 13 | 13 | 69 | 291 | 82 | 22 | 10 | 28.0% | 7.4% | 3.5% | 4.00 | 3.96 | +0.8 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | CHC | 11 | 11 | 62 | 263 | 72 | 20 | 9 | 27.5% | 7.5% | 3.5% | 4.03 | 4.05 | +0.6 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | CHC | 56 | — | 56 | 236 | 63 | 18 | 9 | 26.9% | 7.6% | 3.6% | 4.11 | 4.16 | +0.5 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | CHC | 50 | — | 50 | 210 | 55 | 16 | 8 | 26.3% | 7.8% | 3.7% | 4.21 | 4.27 | +0.4 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | CHC | 44 | — | 44 | 187 | 48 | 15 | 7 | 25.6% | 8.0% | 3.8% | 4.32 | 4.40 | +0.3 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | CHC | 39 | — | 39 | 165 | 41 | 13 | 6 | 24.9% | 8.2% | 3.9% | 4.45 | 4.54 | +0.2 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | CHC | 34 | — | 34 | 145 | 35 | 12 | 6 | 24.2% | 8.4% | 4.0% | 4.59 | 4.69 | +0.1 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | CHC | 30 | — | 30 | 126 | 29 | 11 | 5 | 23.4% | 8.6% | 4.1% | 4.75 | 4.85 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 129 | 79 | 477 | 2011 | 516 | 199 | 57 | 25.6% | 9.9% | 2.8% | 4.02 | 3.74 | +8.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 54 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 217 | 83 | 24 | 25.6% | 9.9% | 2.8% | 4.02 | 3.74 | +3.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ben Brown (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.16 | 27.1% | 7.9% | 3.6% | — | 4.00 | 27.7% | 20.0% | 225 | -0.16 | — | — | — |
| Zack Wheeler R 2027 · 4.89 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.89 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 4.2% | .327 | 3.06 | 23.0% | 16.8% | 449 | -1.83 | 2.32 | 1,443 | 76 |
| Richard Rodríguez R 2026 · 3.38 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.38 | 21.4% | 6.9% | 2.2% | .267 | 3.40 | 26.2% | 19.8% | 205 | +0.02 | 2.19 | 545 | 75 |
| Brett Sears R 2025 · 3.63 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.63 | 21.1% | 7.1% | 2.6% | .244 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 111 | 71 |
| Andy Ferguson R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.65 | 22.3% | 5.7% | 3.1% | .262 | 3.09 | 18.6% | 10.6% | 33 | -0.56 | 3.09 | 137 | 70 |
| Ryan Tapani R 2025 · 3.85 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.85 | 19.0% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .331 | 5.58 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 47 | +1.73 | 3.85 | 141 | 70 |
| Alex Colomé R 2026 · 3.29 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.29 | 19.3% | 5.9% | 1.9% | .309 | 2.86 | 25.5% | 19.3% | 191 | -0.43 | 2.61 | 530 | 70 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2028 · 3.94 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.94 | 22.4% | 6.8% | 3.4% | .324 | 3.78 | 22.0% | 12.8% | 135 | -0.16 | 3.62 | 224 | 69 |
| Riley O'Brien R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.53 | 21.7% | 11.6% | 3.3% | .258 | 3.41 | 26.5% | 12.3% | 108 | -1.12 | 2.52 | 520 | 69 |
| Roberto Gómez R 2027 · 3.98 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.98 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .315 | 5.24 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.26 | 3.98 | 115 | 69 |
| Patrick Johnson R 2027 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.89 | 17.3% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .286 | 4.13 | 15.7% | 6.4% | 120 | +0.24 | 3.89 | 248 | 69 |
| Hayden Minton R 2024 · 4.21 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.21 | 19.1% | 7.0% | 3.3% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 194 | 69 |
| Mike Baumann R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.58 | 23.1% | 8.6% | 2.4% | .336 | 4.17 | 22.2% | 11.3% | 123 | +0.59 | 3.01 | 548 | 68 |
| Joe Wieland R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.28 | 18.6% | 7.3% | 3.3% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.45 | 270 | 68 |
| Bryan Hoeing R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.30 | 20.2% | 6.4% | 3.8% | .275 | 3.17 | 20.2% | 13.5% | 69 | -1.13 | 3.10 | 424 | 68 |
| Jared Mortensen R 2027 · 4.42 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.42 | 16.9% | 7.8% | 3.2% | .287 | 5.02 | 20.9% | 2.1% | 72 | +0.60 | 4.42 | 200 | 68 |
| Iván Nova R 2028 · 4.30 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.30 | 15.3% | 8.0% | 2.7% | .283 | 4.33 | 17.3% | 13.1% | 510 | +0.03 | 4.13 | 810 | 68 |
| David Phelps R 2028 · 3.95 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.95 | 16.0% | 6.8% | 2.4% | .299 | 2.78 | 29.9% | 20.6% | 142 | -1.17 | 2.49 | 373 | 68 |
| Jesse Hahn R 2026 · 3.29 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.29 | 15.8% | 5.9% | 1.4% | .265 | 4.32 | 14.4% | 4.2% | 208 | +1.03 | 2.19 | 404 | 68 |
| R.J. Gordon R 2023 · 4.31 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.31 | 21.5% | 9.5% | 3.3% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 129 | 68 |
| Wil Jensen R 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.50 | 22.7% | 8.4% | 2.3% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 368 | 68 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb
MLB Debut 2024
Service 1.983 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2030
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.9 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.9 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2028 | Arb-1 | $2M | +1.0 | $8M | +$6M |
| 2029 | Arb-2 | $3M | +0.8 | $3M | +$0.2M |
| 2030 | Arb-3 | $4M | +0.6 | $3M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $10M | $22M | +$12M | ||