Ben Brown
P
Chicago Cubs
Age 26
RHP
6'6" / 210 lbs
MLB
Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030
peak 2.0 · 2027
ILInjured 15-Day (D15)
2026 ROS PROJECTION68 act + 14 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8980vR 71
ERA3.43
FIP3.20
K%25.6%
BB%7.2%
K-BB%18.4%
ROS IP14
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 82 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p7596.3
Whiff%
p6327.3%
K%
p6224.5%
xwOBA vs
p840.279
CH (6%)
SI (21%)
CU (36%)
FB (58%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 17 | ROK | GCL Phillies | 10 | 0 | 14 | 59 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 0% | 1.4 | 11.5% | 12.7% | -1.2% | 0.0% | 2.57 | 3.74 | — |
| 2017 | 17 | ROK | GCL Phillies | 10 | 0 | 14 | 59 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 0% | 1.4 | 16.9% | 10.2% | 6.8% | 0.0% | 2.57 | 2.96 | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | GCL Phillies West | 10 | 8 | 49 | 204 | 62 | 15 | 2 | 80% | 4.9 | 20.7% | 9.2% | 11.5% | 1.4% | 3.12 | 3.27 | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | GCL Phillies West | 10 | 8 | 49 | 204 | 62 | 15 | 2 | 80% | 4.9 | 30.4% | 7.4% | 23.0% | 1.0% | 3.12 | 2.02 | — |
| 2019 | 19 | A | Lakewood BlueClaws | 4 | 1 | 14 | 54 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 25% | 3.4 | 27.4% | 6.6% | 20.9% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 1.62 | — |
| 2019 | 19 | A | Lakewood BlueClaws | 4 | 1 | 14 | 54 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 25% | 3.4 | 37.0% | 5.6% | 31.5% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.83 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 7 | 4 | 16 | 70 | 17 | 8 | 2 | 57% | 2.3 | 20.0% | 14.9% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 6.19 | 5.82 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 7 | 4 | 16 | 70 | 17 | 8 | 2 | 57% | 2.3 | 24.3% | 11.4% | 12.9% | 2.9% | 6.19 | 4.10 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 22 | 104 | 434 | 149 | 36 | 10 | 96% | 4.5 | 26.8% | 9.4% | 17.5% | 3.5% | 3.38 | 3.92 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 22 | 104 | 434 | 149 | 36 | 10 | 96% | 4.5 | 34.3% | 8.3% | 26.0% | 2.3% | 3.38 | 2.52 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 19 | 93 | 399 | 130 | 56 | 10 | 73% | 3.6 | 28.1% | 14.8% | 13.3% | 2.9% | 4.27 | 4.20 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 19 | 93 | 399 | 130 | 56 | 10 | 73% | 3.6 | 32.6% | 14.0% | 18.5% | 2.5% | 4.27 | 3.51 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 15 | 8 | 55 | 222 | 64 | 19 | 5 | 53% | 3.7 | 28.8% | 8.6% | 20.3% | 2.2% | 3.58 | 2.96 | +1.0 |
| 2024 | 24 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 15 | 8 | 55 | 222 | 64 | 19 | 5 | 53% | 3.7 | 28.8% | 8.6% | 20.3% | 2.3% | 3.58 | 2.99 | +1.0 |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 17 | 117 | 512 | 129 | 34 | 19 | 61% | 4.2 | 25.6% | 6.8% | 18.9% | 3.7% | 5.45 | 3.84 | +2.1 |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 17 | 117 | 512 | 129 | 34 | 19 | 61% | 4.2 | 25.2% | 6.6% | 18.6% | 3.7% | 5.45 | 3.88 | +2.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 20 | 8 | 68 | 265 | 65 | 19 | 2 | 40% | 3.4 | 24.5% | 7.2% | 17.4% | 0.8% | 1.85 | 2.35 | +1.9 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | CHC | 13 | 0 | 14 | 59 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.6% | 7.2% | 18.4% | 2.5% | 3.43 | 3.20 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | CHC | 13 | 0 | 14 | 59 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.6% | 7.2% | 18.4% | 2.5% | 3.45 | 3.22 | +0.2 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 82 | 324 | 80 | 23 | 3 | — | — | 24.7% | 7.2% | 17.5% | 1.1% | 2.12 | 2.50 | +2.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 82 | 346 | 80 | 23 | 3 | — | — | 23.1% | 6.7% | 16.4% | 1.0% | 2.13 | 2.55 | +2.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CHC | 14 | 14 | 92 | 388 | 101 | 28 | 10 | 100% | 6.6 | 25.9% | 7.3% | 18.6% | 2.6% | 3.70 | 3.62 | +1.7 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | CHC | 14 | 14 | 92 | 388 | 100 | 29 | 10 | 100% | 6.6 | 25.8% | 7.4% | 18.3% | 2.7% | 3.70 | 3.70 | +1.6 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | CHC | 14 | 14 | 88 | 371 | 93 | 28 | 10 | 100% | 6.3 | 25.2% | 7.7% | 17.5% | 2.8% | 3.80 | 3.86 | +1.3 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | CHC | 13 | 13 | 83 | 349 | 85 | 28 | 10 | 100% | 6.4 | 24.5% | 8.0% | 16.5% | 3.0% | 3.96 | 4.07 | +0.9 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | CHC | 12 | 12 | 77 | 325 | 84 | 24 | 11 | 100% | 6.4 | 25.7% | 7.5% | 18.2% | 3.2% | 4.00 | 4.03 | +0.8 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | CHC | 11 | 11 | 71 | 301 | 75 | 24 | 10 | 100% | 6.5 | 24.9% | 7.9% | 17.0% | 3.5% | 4.17 | 4.29 | +0.4 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | CHC | 10 | 10 | 65 | 276 | 66 | 23 | 10 | 100% | 6.5 | 24.1% | 8.4% | 15.7% | 3.8% | 4.41 | 4.57 | +0.1 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | CHC | 9 | 9 | 59 | 251 | 58 | 22 | 10 | 100% | 6.6 | 23.2% | 8.9% | 14.3% | 4.1% | 4.69 | 4.87 | -0.2 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | CHC | 8 | 8 | 53 | 225 | 50 | 21 | 10 | 100% | 6.7 | 22.2% | 9.4% | 12.8% | 4.4% | 5.00 | 5.21 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CHC | 14 | 14 | 87 | 367 | 95 | 27 | 10 | 100% | 6.2 | 25.9% | 7.3% | 18.6% | 2.6% | 3.72 | 3.64 | +1.5 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | CHC | 14 | 14 | 87 | 367 | 95 | 27 | 10 | 100% | 6.2 | 25.8% | 7.4% | 18.3% | 2.7% | 3.72 | 3.72 | +1.4 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | CHC | 13 | 13 | 84 | 355 | 89 | 27 | 10 | 100% | 6.5 | 25.2% | 7.7% | 17.5% | 2.8% | 3.82 | 3.88 | +1.2 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | CHC | 12 | 12 | 78 | 329 | 81 | 26 | 10 | 100% | 6.5 | 24.5% | 8.0% | 16.5% | 3.0% | 3.98 | 4.09 | +0.8 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | CHC | 11 | 11 | 73 | 308 | 79 | 23 | 10 | 100% | 6.6 | 25.7% | 7.5% | 18.2% | 3.3% | 4.02 | 4.05 | +0.7 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | CHC | 11 | 11 | 68 | 287 | 72 | 23 | 10 | 100% | 6.2 | 24.9% | 7.9% | 17.0% | 3.5% | 4.19 | 4.31 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | CHC | 10 | 10 | 62 | 262 | 63 | 22 | 10 | 100% | 6.2 | 24.1% | 8.4% | 15.7% | 3.8% | 4.44 | 4.60 | -0.0 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | CHC | 8 | 8 | 54 | 228 | 53 | 20 | 9 | 100% | 6.8 | 23.2% | 8.9% | 14.3% | 4.1% | 4.72 | 4.90 | -0.2 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | CHC | 7 | 7 | 46 | 194 | 43 | 18 | 9 | 100% | 6.6 | 22.2% | 9.4% | 12.8% | 4.4% | 5.03 | 5.24 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 173 | 130 | 883 | 3717 | 935 | 288 | 114 | 75% | 5.1 | 25.2% | 7.8% | 17.4% | 3.1% | 4.10 | 3.64 | +18.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 39 | 29 | 200 | 842 | 212 | 65 | 26 | 75% | 5.1 | 25.2% | 7.8% | 17.4% | 3.1% | 4.10 | 3.64 | +4.1 | ||
| Career | — | 143 | 87 | 530 | 2219 | 567 | 213 | 59 | 61% | 3.7 | 25.5% | 9.6% | 16.0% | 2.6% | 3.77 | 3.61 | +11.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 54 | 33 | 200 | 837 | 214 | 80 | 22 | 61% | 3.7 | 25.5% | 9.6% | 16.0% | 2.6% | 3.77 | 3.61 | +4.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ben Brown (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.99 | 27.1% | 7.3% | 3.4% | — | 3.72 | 25.6% | 18.2% | 272 | -0.27 | — | — | — |
| Mike Baumann R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.56 | 23.1% | 8.6% | 2.4% | .336 | 4.23 | 22.2% | 11.3% | 123 | +0.67 | 2.98 | 559 | 63 |
| Louis Varland R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.44 | 22.1% | 8.0% | 4.0% | .329 | 2.26 | 29.3% | 22.5% | 122 | -2.18 | 1.21 | 660 | 63 |
| Andy Ferguson R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.57 | 22.3% | 5.7% | 3.0% | .262 | 3.13 | 18.6% | 10.6% | 33 | -0.44 | 3.13 | 137 | 63 |
| Kutter Crawford R 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.47 | 21.9% | 7.7% | 4.1% | .316 | 4.08 | 24.1% | 17.4% | 313 | -0.39 | 3.35 | 741 | 63 |
| Lisalverto Bonilla R 2026 · 3.25 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.25 | 21.3% | 8.8% | 1.5% | .330 | 4.63 | 18.0% | 7.3% | 110 | +1.38 | 3.25 | 221 | 63 |
| Adrian Houser R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.58 | 25.1% | 7.2% | 3.1% | .279 | 4.19 | 16.8% | 6.7% | 301 | +0.61 | 3.58 | 1,191 | 62 |
| Heath Holder R 2026 · 3.12 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.12 | 21.9% | 7.5% | 1.7% | .263 | 5.32 | 19.8% | 4.9% | 85 | +2.20 | 2.74 | 367 | 62 |
| Sauryn Lao R 2025 · 3.48 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.48 | 21.7% | 7.3% | 2.4% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.19 | 182 | 61 |
| Deck McGuire R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.81 | 18.2% | 6.2% | 2.6% | .301 | 4.45 | 18.9% | 9.2% | 411 | +0.64 | 3.23 | 622 | 61 |
| Michael Bowden R 2028 · 3.25 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.25 | 17.3% | 6.4% | 1.4% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.25 | 141 | 60 |
| Ryan Tapani R 2025 · 3.89 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.89 | 19.0% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .331 | 5.46 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 47 | +1.57 | 3.89 | 141 | 60 |
| Patrick Johnson R 2027 · 3.52 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.52 | 17.3% | 6.9% | 1.8% | .286 | 4.03 | 15.7% | 6.4% | 120 | +0.51 | 3.52 | 248 | 60 |
| Preston Johnson R 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.47 | 23.4% | 9.5% | 2.1% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 146 | 60 |
| Dawson Netz R 2025 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.42 | 23.3% | 10.7% | 3.5% | .225 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 102 | 60 |
| Trent Baker R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.74 | 20.2% | 8.3% | 2.4% | .304 | 4.64 | 16.6% | 7.0% | 39 | +0.90 | 3.74 | 459 | 59 |
| Adam Warren R 2027 · 3.31 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.31 | 19.5% | 7.1% | 1.7% | .272 | 3.73 | 21.9% | 14.4% | 174 | +0.42 | 2.71 | 392 | 59 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.92 | 24.5% | 9.5% | 3.1% | .232 | 5.11 | 17.5% | 6.2% | 190 | +1.19 | 3.92 | 233 | 59 |
| Luis Santos R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.96 | 19.7% | 9.7% | 4.2% | .262 | 3.81 | 22.1% | 13.0% | 127 | -1.15 | 3.50 | 472 | 59 |
| Wendolyn Bautista R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.12 | 18.3% | 5.5% | 3.4% | .349 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.48 | 468 | 59 |
| TJ Shook R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.63 | 23.7% | 8.7% | 4.4% | .317 | 3.95 | 22.5% | 14.7% | 87 | -0.68 | 3.36 | 432 | 59 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 10 | 76 | 25.1% | 7.9% | 1.25 | 4.10 |
| Jesse Chavez ('24) | 9 | 82 | 22.2% | 6.9% | 1.26 | 3.94 |
| Daniel Hudson ('24) | 9 | 52 | 25.5% | 8.9% | 1.13 | 3.75 |
| Tyler Duffey ('22) | 8 | 59 | 23.0% | 6.8% | 1.25 | 4.57 |
| Trevor May ('23) | 8 | 51 | 27.6% | 8.3% | 1.18 | 3.83 |
| Daniel Norris ('22) | 8 | 70 | 21.7% | 8.5% | 1.37 | 4.70 |
| Matt Wisler ('22) | 8 | 63 | 20.1% | 7.6% | 1.40 | 4.59 |