Ben Brown — OGILVIE

Ben Brown P Chicago Cubs

Age 26 RHP 6'6" / 210 lbs MLB Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 2.3 · 2027 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2026 ROS PROJECTION68 act + 2 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9587vR 79

ERA3.82

FIP3.61

K%25.6%

BB%7.1%

K-BB%18.4%

ROS IP2

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$21M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL5555

CMD6060

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7596.3

Whiff%

p6327.3%

p6224.5%

xwOBA vs

p840.279

CH (6%)

SI (21%)

CU (36%)

FB (58%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2024

Service 1.983 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.6M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.6	$12M	+$11M
2028	Arb-1	$5M	+1.4	$10M	+$6M
2029	Arb-2	$7M	+1.2	$8M	+$3M
2030	Arb-3	$8M	+0.9	$3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$13M		$32M	+$20M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	17	ROK MLE	GCL Phillies	10	0	14	59	10	6	0	0%	1.4	11.5%	12.7%	-1.2%	0.0%	2.57	3.74	—
2017	17	ROK RAW	GCL Phillies	10	0	14	59	10	6	0	0%	1.4	16.9%	10.2%	6.8%	0.0%	2.57	2.96	—
2018	18	ROK MLE	GCL Phillies West	10	8	49	204	62	15	2	80%	4.9	20.7%	9.2%	11.5%	1.4%	3.12	3.27	—
2018	18	ROK RAW	GCL Phillies West	10	8	49	204	62	15	2	80%	4.9	30.4%	7.4%	23.0%	1.0%	3.12	2.02	—
2019	19	A MLE	Lakewood BlueClaws	4	1	14	54	20	3	0	25%	3.4	27.4%	6.6%	20.9%	0.0%	0.00	1.62	—
2019	19	A RAW	Lakewood BlueClaws	4	1	14	54	20	3	0	25%	3.4	37.0%	5.6%	31.5%	0.0%	0.00	0.83	—
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	4	16	70	17	8	2	57%	2.3	20.0%	14.9%	5.1%	4.6%	6.19	5.83	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	4	16	70	17	8	2	57%	2.3	24.3%	11.4%	12.9%	2.9%	6.19	4.10	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	22	104	434	149	36	10	96%	4.5	26.8%	9.4%	17.5%	3.1%	3.38	3.73	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	22	104	434	149	36	10	96%	4.5	34.3%	8.3%	26.0%	2.3%	3.38	2.52	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	19	93	399	130	56	10	73%	3.6	26.9%	12.9%	14.0%	2.8%	4.27	4.03	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	19	93	399	130	56	10	73%	3.6	26.9%	12.9%	14.0%	2.8%	4.27	4.03	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	19	93	399	130	56	10	73%	3.6	32.6%	14.0%	18.5%	2.5%	4.27	3.51	—
2024	24	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	15	8	55	222	64	19	5	53%	3.7	28.8%	8.6%	20.3%	2.3%	3.58	3.03	+1.3
2024	24	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	15	8	55	222	64	19	5	53%	3.7	28.8%	8.6%	20.3%	2.3%	3.58	3.03	+1.3
2024	24	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	15	8	55	222	64	19	5	53%	3.7	28.8%	8.6%	20.3%	2.3%	3.58	2.99	+1.3
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	17	117	512	129	34	19	61%	4.2	25.6%	6.8%	18.9%	4.0%	5.45	3.97	+1.3
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	17	117	512	129	34	19	61%	4.2	25.6%	6.8%	18.9%	4.0%	5.45	3.97	+1.3
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	17	117	512	129	34	19	61%	4.2	25.2%	6.6%	18.6%	3.7%	5.45	3.88	+1.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			60	31	230	959	250	70	25	52%	3.8	26.1%	7.3%	18.8%	2.6%	4.15	3.25	+4.6
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	20	8	68	265	65	19	2	40%	3.4	24.5%	7.2%	17.4%	0.8%	1.85	2.37	+1.9
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	20	8	68	265	65	19	2	40%	3.4	24.5%	7.2%	17.4%	0.8%	1.85	2.37	+1.9
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	MLB RAW	CHC	20	8	68	265	65	19	2	40%	3.4	24.5%	7.2%	17.4%	0.8%	1.85	2.35	+1.9
SO FAR	26	MLB RAW	CHC	20	8	68	265	65	19	2	40%	3.4	24.5%	7.2%	17.4%	0.8%	1.85	2.35	+1.9
ROS	26	MLB MLE	CHC	2	0	2	10	3	1	0	0%	1.2	25.6%	7.1%	18.4%	3.2%	3.82	3.61	+0.0
ROS	26	MLB CTX	CHC	2	0	2	8	2	1	0	0%	1.0	25.6%	7.1%	18.4%	3.1%	3.75	3.54	+0.0
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	CHC	—	—	70	275	68	20	2	—	—	24.6%	7.2%	17.4%	0.8%	1.92	2.41	+2.0
FULL	26	MLB A+C	CHC	—	—	70	297	68	20	2	—	—	22.7%	6.6%	16.1%	0.8%	1.92	2.45	+2.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	CHC	17	17	108	456	118	33	12	100%	6.4	25.9%	7.2%	18.6%	2.6%	3.73	3.66	+1.6
2028	28	MLB MLE	CHC	17	17	108	456	117	34	12	100%	6.4	25.7%	7.4%	18.4%	2.7%	3.74	3.74	+1.5
2029	29	MLB MLE	CHC	16	16	103	435	109	33	13	100%	6.4	25.1%	7.6%	17.5%	2.9%	3.84	3.90	+1.2
2030	30	MLB MLE	CHC	15	15	97	409	100	32	13	100%	6.5	24.4%	7.9%	16.5%	3.1%	4.00	4.11	+0.9
2031	31	MLB MLE	CHC	14	14	90	382	90	31	13	100%	6.5	23.7%	8.2%	15.4%	3.3%	4.20	4.34	+0.6
2032	32	MLB MLE	CHC	13	13	84	353	81	31	13	100%	6.4	22.9%	8.6%	14.3%	3.6%	4.44	4.60	+0.3
2033	33	MLB MLE	CHC	12	12	77	324	78	27	12	100%	6.4	24.1%	8.3%	15.7%	3.8%	4.54	4.61	+0.3
2034	34	MLB MLE	CHC	11	11	70	295	68	26	12	100%	6.3	23.2%	8.8%	14.4%	4.1%	4.76	4.91	-0.0
2027	27	MLB CTX	CHC	16	16	103	435	112	31	11	100%	6.4	25.9%	7.2%	18.6%	2.5%	3.68	3.61	+1.6
2028	28	MLB CTX	CHC	16	16	103	435	112	32	11	100%	6.4	25.7%	7.4%	18.4%	2.6%	3.68	3.68	+1.4
2029	29	MLB CTX	CHC	15	15	98	414	104	31	11	100%	6.5	25.1%	7.6%	17.5%	2.8%	3.78	3.84	+1.2
2030	30	MLB CTX	CHC	14	14	92	388	95	31	12	100%	6.6	24.4%	7.9%	16.5%	3.0%	3.94	4.05	+0.9
2031	31	MLB CTX	CHC	13	13	86	363	86	30	12	100%	6.6	23.7%	8.2%	15.4%	3.2%	4.13	4.27	+0.6
2032	32	MLB CTX	CHC	12	12	79	334	76	29	11	100%	6.6	22.9%	8.6%	14.3%	3.4%	4.37	4.53	+0.3
2033	33	MLB CTX	CHC	11	11	73	308	74	26	11	100%	6.6	24.1%	8.3%	15.7%	3.7%	4.46	4.53	+0.2
2034	34	MLB CTX	CHC	10	10	63	266	62	23	11	100%	6.3	23.2%	8.8%	14.4%	4.0%	4.67	4.82	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		170	139	929	3910	974	304	116	82%	5.5	24.9%	7.8%	17.1%	3.0%	4.06	3.61	+14.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		37	30	200	842	210	65	25	82%	5.4	24.9%	7.8%	17.1%	3.0%	4.06	3.61	+3.1
Career	—	MLE		143	87	530	2219	562	205	58	61%	3.7	25.3%	9.3%	16.1%	2.6%	3.77	3.58	+10.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		54	33	200	837	212	77	22	61%	3.7	25.3%	9.3%	16.1%	2.6%	3.77	3.58	+2.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ben Brown (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.05	27.1%	7.1%	3.6%	—	3.76	25.6%	18.2%	319	-0.29	—	—	—
Keaton Winn R 2023 · 4.01 FIP	25	SP-	4.01	20.6%	7.2%	3.2%	.310	4.37	18.9%	10.7%	122	+0.36	3.68	457	66
Kyle Hurt R 2023 · 3.47 FIP	25	SP-	3.47	31.9%	11.9%	2.9%	.324	3.44	28.5%	15.0%	68	-0.03	2.83	248	64
Louis Varland R 2023 · 4.12 FIP	25	SP-	4.12	22.7%	6.4%	3.9%	.309	3.34	25.0%	18.0%	279	-0.78	1.69	684	64
Mike Baumann R 2022 · 3.56 FIP	26	SW	3.56	23.1%	8.6%	2.4%	.336	4.28	22.2%	11.3%	123	+0.72	3.00	559	64
Andy Ferguson R 2015 · 3.68 FIP	26	SP-	3.68	22.3%	5.7%	3.2%	.262	3.10	18.6%	10.6%	33	-0.58	3.10	137	63
Duncan Davitt R 2023 · 4.55 FIP	23	SW	4.55	20.4%	8.7%	3.8%	.296	4.23	19.6%	11.9%	358	-0.32	4.09	438	63
Adrian Houser R 2019 · 3.45 FIP	26	SP-	3.45	25.1%	7.2%	2.9%	.279	4.09	16.8%	6.7%	301	+0.64	3.45	1,221	63
Kutter Crawford R 2022 · 4.47 FIP	26	SP-	4.47	21.9%	7.7%	4.1%	.316	4.15	24.1%	17.4%	313	-0.32	3.30	741	63
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2016 · 3.22 FIP	26	SW	3.22	21.3%	8.8%	1.5%	.330	4.62	18.0%	7.3%	110	+1.40	3.22	221	62
Heath Holder R 2019 · 3.26 FIP	26	SW	3.26	21.9%	7.5%	1.9%	.263	5.51	19.8%	4.9%	85	+2.25	2.94	367	62
Ian Bedell R 2023 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP-	3.73	21.0%	10.1%	2.1%	.285	5.59	18.4%	8.7%	178	+1.86	3.73	274	61
Tyler Guilfoil R 2023 · 3.18 FIP	23	SP-	3.18	26.0%	12.3%	1.3%	.305	5.52	17.8%	4.4%	190	+2.34	3.18	274	61
Mason Adams R 2023 · 3.67 FIP	23	SP-	3.67	20.4%	7.3%	2.5%	.315	3.81	19.8%	12.5%	188	+0.14	3.67	297	61
Deck McGuire R 2015 · 3.69 FIP	26	SP-	3.69	18.2%	6.2%	2.4%	.301	4.44	18.9%	9.2%	411	+0.75	3.41	622	61
TJ Shook R 2023 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	21.0%	9.6%	3.6%	.273	4.07	21.2%	12.4%	191	-0.44	3.35	451	60
Patrick Johnson R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP-	3.82	17.3%	6.9%	2.4%	.286	4.14	15.7%	6.4%	120	+0.32	3.82	248	60
Aaron Brown R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	24	SP-	3.98	19.8%	8.8%	2.6%	.337	5.89	16.8%	8.8%	186	+1.91	3.98	418	60
Ryan Tapani R 2019 · 3.86 FIP	25	SW	3.86	19.0%	7.3%	2.6%	.331	5.56	20.8%	10.6%	47	+1.70	3.86	141	60
Michael Bowden R 2015 · 3.21 FIP	28	SP-	3.21	17.3%	6.4%	1.4%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	3.21	141	60
Luis Santos R 2017 · 4.76 FIP	26	SP-	4.76	19.7%	9.7%	3.8%	.262	3.93	22.1%	13.0%	127	-0.83	3.53	472	60

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.1	91	24.8%	7.9%	1.25	4.12
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Ross Stripling ('24)	4.2	94	20.9%	5.6%	1.32	4.17
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Michael Fulmer ('23)	3.4	96	20.3%	7.6%	0.99	3.94
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59