Louis Varland

P Toronto Blue Jays

Age 29 RHP 6'1" / 205 lbs MLB Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 1.1 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP40-MANArb-1FA 2031

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	26	MIX2 levels	33	23	133	5.82	4.33	24.0%	7.8%	1.7	K 21.7% · BB 7.2% · FIP 4.42
2025	27	MLBTOR	74	1	73	2.97	2.98	25.3%	7.1%	1.4
2026	28	MLBTOR	71	0	78	1.27	1.79	31.6%	7.2%	2.6
2027PROJ	29	MLBTOR	68	0	71	3.27	3.03	29.3%	6.8%	1.4
2028PROJ95% MLB	30	MLBTOR	55	0	58	3.25	3.24	28.6%	7.1%	1.0
2029PROJ95% MLB	31	MLBTOR	48	0	50	3.38	3.47	27.8%	7.4%	0.7

Last 3 seasons WAR 5.6 · Next 3 projected WAR 3.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2030Service2.948First FA2031Super-2

2027Arb-1$2M2028Arb-2$2M2029Arb-3$2M2030Ext$7M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo90

K%90

xwOBA vs90

Form1.96 ERA (proj 3.27) · K 25.0% (proj 29.3%) · BB 8.3% (proj 6.8%) ▼ last 90d · 23 IP through Oct 27

CompsDavid Carpenter (age 29) · Josh Fields (age 29) · Lucas Erceg (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 7971vR 62

ERA3.27

FIP3.03

K%29.3%

BB%6.8%

K-BB%22.5%

Proj IP71

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 71 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$18M ctrl surplus

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9098.8

Whiff%

p7629.4%

p9031.6%

xwOBA vs

p900.239

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2022

Service 2.948 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-1	$2M	+1.4	$11M	+$9M
2028	Arb-2	$2M	+1.0	$7M	+$6M
2029	Arb-3	$2M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.4M
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$6M		$21M	+$15M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	18	103	421	142	30	6	90%	5.2	25.4%	8.3%	17.1%	2.0%	2.10	3.09	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	18	103	421	142	30	6	90%	5.2	33.7%	7.1%	26.6%	1.4%	2.10	1.97	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	28	152	640	167	47	19	97%	5.3	22.1%	8.0%	14.1%	3.5%	3.19	4.16	+2.2
2022	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	29	28	152	640	167	47	19	97%	5.3	26.1%	7.3%	18.8%	3.0%	3.19	3.45	+3.6
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	25	150	634	159	43	24	76%	4.5	23.1%	6.4%	16.8%	3.9%	4.27	4.09	+2.3
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	25	150	634	159	43	24	76%	4.5	25.1%	6.8%	18.3%	3.8%	4.27	3.92	+2.6
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	23	133	605	145	47	24	70%	4.0	21.7%	7.2%	14.5%	4.1%	5.82	4.42	+1.5
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	23	133	605	145	47	24	70%	4.0	21.7%	7.2%	14.5%	4.1%	5.82	4.42	+1.5
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	23	133	605	145	47	24	70%	4.0	24.0%	7.8%	16.2%	4.0%	5.82	4.33	+1.7
2025	27	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	74	1	73	296	75	21	6	1%	1.0	25.3%	7.1%	18.2%	2.0%	2.97	2.97	+1.4
2025	27	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	74	1	73	296	75	21	6	1%	1.0	25.3%	7.1%	18.2%	2.0%	2.97	2.97	+1.4
2025	27	MLB RAW	Toronto Blue Jays	74	1	73	296	75	21	6	1%	1.0	25.3%	7.1%	18.2%	2.0%	2.97	2.98	+1.4
2026	28	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	71	0	78	307	97	22	2	0%	1.1	31.6%	7.2%	24.4%	0.7%	1.27	1.70	+2.7
2026	28	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	71	0	78	307	97	22	2	0%	1.1	31.6%	7.2%	24.4%	0.7%	1.27	1.70	+2.7
2026	28	MLB RAW	Toronto Blue Jays	71	0	78	307	97	22	2	0%	1.1	31.6%	7.2%	24.4%	0.7%	1.27	1.79	+2.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			183	23	294	1230	313	80	40	13%	1.6	25.4%	6.5%	18.9%	3.3%	3.76	3.56	+3.5
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	TOR	68	0	71	300	88	20	6	0%	1.0	29.3%	6.8%	22.5%	2.1%	3.27	3.03	+1.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	TOR	59	0	62	260	74	18	6	0%	1.0	28.6%	7.1%	21.5%	2.3%	3.25	3.24	+1.0
2029	31	MLB MLE	TOR	50	0	53	223	62	17	6	0%	1.1	27.8%	7.4%	20.4%	2.6%	3.38	3.47	+0.7
2028	30	MLB CTX	TOR	55	0	58	245	70	17	6	0%	1.1	28.6%	7.1%	21.5%	2.3%	3.25	3.24	+1.0
2029	31	MLB CTX	TOR	48	0	50	211	59	16	5	0%	1.0	27.8%	7.4%	20.4%	2.6%	3.38	3.47	+0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		286	23	403	1688	442	113	51	8%	1.4	26.2%	6.7%	19.5%	3.0%	3.64	3.40	+5.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		142	11	200	838	219	56	25	8%	1.4	26.2%	6.7%	19.5%	3.0%	3.64	3.40	+2.7
Career	—	MLE		260	95	689	2903	698	213	88	37%	2.6	24.1%	7.3%	16.7%	3.0%	3.53	3.66	+5.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		76	28	200	843	203	62	26	37%	2.6	24.1%	7.3%	16.7%	3.0%	3.53	3.66	+2.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 AAASt. Paul Saints · 83 IPFIP 3.79 → 4.09 (+0.30)K% 26.2% → 22.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.16%	—	×0.860	22.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.72%	—	×0.900	7.85%
HR / BF /BF	3.27%	÷1.039	×1.100	3.46%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 108).

Result: FIP 3.79 → 4.09, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAASt. Paul Saints · 82 IPFIP 3.17 → 3.49 (+0.32)K% 25.1% → 21.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.07%	—	×0.860	21.56%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.41%	—	×0.900	6.67%
HR / BF /BF	2.28%	÷1.009	×1.100	2.49%

Result: FIP 3.17 → 3.49, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAWichita Wind Surge · 105 IPFIP 3.67 → 4.58 (+0.91)K% 26.4% → 21.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.44%	—	×0.810	21.42%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.67%	—	×1.100	9.53%
HR / BF /BF	3.11%	÷0.985	×1.200	3.79%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 97).

Result: FIP 3.67 → 4.58, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAASt. Paul Saints · 21 IPFIP 1.49 → 2.00 (+0.51)K% 32.1% → 28.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.14%	—	×0.880	28.29%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.57%	—	×1.050	3.75%
HR / BF /BF	1.19%	÷0.881	×1.100	1.49%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 76).

Result: FIP 1.49 → 2.00, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels · 56 IPFIP 2.37 → 3.43 (+1.06)K% 29.9% → 23.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.86%	—	×0.770	23.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.33%	—	×1.150	7.29%
HR / BF /BF	1.81%	÷0.920	×1.250	2.46%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 84).

Result: FIP 2.37 → 3.43, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 47 IPFIP 1.45 → 2.71 (+1.25)K% 38.0% → 28.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	38.00%	—	×0.740	28.12%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.00%	—	×1.180	9.44%
HR / BF /BF	1.00%	÷0.908	×1.300	1.43%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 82).

Result: FIP 1.45 → 2.71, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Louis Varland (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.1%	—	3.35	28.2%	21.0%	114	+0.32	—	—	—
David Carpenter R 2014 · 2.84 FIP	29	SU	2.84	25.9%	6.2%	2.1%	.327	4.98	15.8%	5.8%	50	+2.14	2.66	275	63
Josh Fields R 2015 · 1.90 FIP	29	SU	1.90	32.1%	7.7%	1.0%	.298	3.23	25.2%	19.0%	162	+1.33	1.80	330	61
Lucas Erceg R 2024 · 2.10 FIP	29	SU	2.10	28.5%	5.5%	1.3%	.280	3.90	17.4%	8.2%	110	+1.80	2.10	351	61
Junior Guerra R 2015 · 3.18 FIP	30	SW	3.18	26.8%	10.3%	1.9%	.269	4.15	20.8%	10.9%	390	+0.97	3.18	646	61
Brad Lidge R 2006 · 3.32 FIP	29	SU	3.32	30.6%	9.4%	2.9%	.304	3.37	28.2%	18.0%	195	+0.05	1.56	595	61
John Brebbia R 2019 · 2.89 FIP	29	SU	2.89	28.6%	8.2%	2.1%	.285	3.34	22.8%	17.4%	102	+0.45	2.89	576	60
Dinelson Lamet R 2021 · 3.67 FIP	29	SW	3.67	27.3%	10.5%	2.8%	.339	4.61	20.7%	8.6%	176	+0.94	2.11	778	60
Jeff Zimmerman R 2001 · 3.58 FIP	28	SU	3.58	26.4%	5.5%	3.7%	.216	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	229	59
Matt Bush R 2016 · 2.87 FIP	30	SU	2.87	24.7%	6.0%	2.0%	.232	3.94	22.2%	12.7%	75	+1.07	2.87	249	59
Blake Treinen R 2017 · 3.15 FIP	29	SU	3.15	22.8%	6.8%	2.0%	.332	2.94	26.6%	18.0%	165	-0.21	1.53	601	59
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	59
Pedro Strop R 2014 · 2.25 FIP	29	SU	2.25	29.1%	9.0%	0.9%	.255	2.79	29.2%	20.4%	176	+0.54	2.25	494	59
Akinori Otsuka R 2004 · 2.61 FIP	32	SU	2.61	27.9%	6.4%	1.9%	.251	2.78	20.3%	13.4%	155	+0.17	2.39	232	59
Phil Klein R 2016 · 3.10 FIP	27	SW	3.10	24.5%	6.6%	2.2%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	197	59
Jumbo Diaz R 2014 · 2.87 FIP	30	SU	2.87	26.1%	7.0%	2.0%	.283	3.64	23.0%	15.0%	186	+0.77	2.80	319	59
Raisel Iglesias R 2019 · 3.36 FIP	29	SU	3.36	31.9%	6.1%	4.0%	.304	2.28	34.8%	30.0%	155	-1.08	1.34	825	59
David Phelps R 2016 · 2.50 FIP	29	SU	2.50	32.4%	9.1%	1.8%	.275	3.71	25.5%	15.3%	90	+1.21	2.50	672	58
Radhames Liz R 2015 · 2.81 FIP	31	SW	2.81	24.8%	9.2%	1.2%	.283	4.45	21.8%	7.9%	23	+1.64	2.81	219	58
Deolis Guerra R 2018 · 3.59 FIP	29	SU	3.59	26.4%	7.1%	3.3%	.280	3.20	26.6%	19.8%	132	-0.39	2.53	364	58
Britt Reames R 2002 · 3.76 FIP	28	SU	3.76	24.7%	10.4%	2.6%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	204	58

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.4	60	26.7%	6.9%	1.12	3.58
Joe Sambito ('76-'87, 8 WAR*)	3.1	70	26.8%*	7.5%*	1.06*	3.65*
Héctor Rondón ('20)	2.2	54	24.2%	7.4%	1.03	3.49
Addison Reed ('18)	2.3	66	24.5%	6.2%	1.04	3.53
Steve Hamilton ('61-'72, 10 WAR*)	3.3	66	25.2%*	7.7%*	0.92*	3.71*
Fernando Salas ('19)	2.4	54	23.1%	7.3%	1.05	3.91
Bob James ('78-'87, 4 WAR*)	2.0	68	26.3%*	8.8%*	1.07*	4.04*