Louis Varland
P
Toronto Blue Jays
Age 28
RHP
6'1" / 205 lbs
MLB
peak 0.8 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION49 act + 16 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 6859vR 49
ERA2.99
FIP2.76
K%30.0%
BB%6.9%
K-BB%23.2%
ROS IP16
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 65 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p9098.5
Whiff%
p7629.4%
K%
p9035.3%
xwOBA vs
p900.223
FB+4.6 (44%)
CH+1.8 (17%)
SI (3%)
CU (30%)
SL (9%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 18 | 103 | 421 | 142 | 30 | 6 | 90% | 5.2 | 25.4% | 8.3% | 17.1% | 2.2% | 2.10 | 3.20 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 18 | 103 | 421 | 142 | 30 | 6 | 90% | 5.2 | 33.7% | 7.1% | 26.6% | 1.4% | 2.10 | 1.97 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 29 | 28 | 152 | 640 | 167 | 47 | 19 | 97% | 5.3 | 22.1% | 8.0% | 14.1% | 3.5% | 3.19 | 4.20 | +2.1 |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 29 | 28 | 152 | 640 | 167 | 47 | 19 | 97% | 5.3 | 26.1% | 7.3% | 18.8% | 3.0% | 3.19 | 3.45 | +3.5 |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 25 | 150 | 634 | 159 | 43 | 24 | 76% | 4.5 | 23.4% | 7.0% | 16.4% | 3.9% | 4.27 | 4.13 | +2.2 |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 25 | 150 | 634 | 159 | 43 | 24 | 76% | 4.5 | 25.1% | 6.8% | 18.3% | 3.8% | 4.27 | 3.92 | +2.6 |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 23 | 133 | 605 | 145 | 47 | 24 | 70% | 4.0 | 22.1% | 8.0% | 14.0% | 4.0% | 5.82 | 4.44 | +1.5 |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 23 | 133 | 605 | 145 | 47 | 24 | 70% | 4.0 | 24.0% | 7.8% | 16.2% | 4.0% | 5.82 | 4.33 | +1.7 |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 74 | 1 | 73 | 296 | 75 | 21 | 6 | 1% | 1.0 | 25.3% | 7.1% | 18.2% | 2.0% | 2.97 | 2.97 | +1.6 |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 74 | 1 | 73 | 296 | 75 | 21 | 6 | 1% | 1.0 | 25.3% | 7.1% | 18.2% | 2.0% | 2.97 | 2.98 | +1.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 44 | 0 | 49 | 190 | 67 | 12 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 35.3% | 6.3% | 28.9% | 0.5% | 1.10 | 1.21 | +1.9 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | TOR | 15 | 0 | 16 | 66 | 20 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 30.0% | 6.9% | 23.2% | 2.4% | 2.99 | 2.76 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | TOR | 15 | 0 | 16 | 68 | 20 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 30.0% | 6.9% | 23.2% | 2.4% | 2.99 | 2.76 | +0.3 |
| 2026 TOT | 28 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 65 | 256 | 87 | 17 | 3 | — | — | 33.9% | 6.5% | 27.5% | 1.0% | 1.56 | 1.59 | +2.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 28 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 65 | 273 | 87 | 17 | 3 | — | — | 31.8% | 6.1% | 25.8% | 1.0% | 1.56 | 1.70 | +2.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | TOR | 59 | 0 | 62 | 261 | 73 | 18 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.1% | 7.1% | 21.0% | 2.6% | 3.47 | 3.44 | +0.8 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | TOR | 55 | 0 | 58 | 245 | 67 | 18 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.4% | 7.4% | 20.0% | 2.8% | 3.57 | 3.64 | +0.6 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | TOR | 56 | 0 | 59 | 249 | 70 | 18 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.1% | 7.1% | 21.0% | 2.6% | 3.47 | 3.44 | +0.8 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | TOR | 52 | 0 | 55 | 232 | 64 | 17 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.4% | 7.4% | 20.0% | 2.8% | 3.57 | 3.64 | +0.6 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 279 | 23 | 395 | 1659 | 436 | 109 | 54 | 8% | 1.4 | 26.3% | 6.6% | 19.7% | 3.2% | 3.82 | 3.49 | +8.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 141 | 12 | 200 | 841 | 221 | 55 | 27 | 8% | 1.4 | 26.3% | 6.6% | 19.7% | 3.2% | 3.82 | 3.49 | +4.5 | ||
| Career | — | 233 | 95 | 660 | 2786 | 672 | 212 | 87 | 41% | 2.8 | 24.1% | 7.6% | 16.5% | 3.1% | 3.62 | 3.75 | +12.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 71 | 29 | 200 | 845 | 204 | 64 | 27 | 41% | 2.8 | 24.1% | 7.6% | 16.5% | 3.1% | 3.62 | 3.75 | +3.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Louis Varland (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.07 | 24.6% | 7.2% | 3.2% | — | 3.54 | 27.8% | 20.6% | 120 | -0.53 | — | — | — |
| Liam Hendriks R 2026 · 3.23 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.23 | 28.6% | 8.4% | 2.7% | .303 | 1.67 | 35.2% | 30.1% | 160 | -1.56 | 0.60 | 495 | 64 |
| Jumbo Diaz R 2029 · 3.20 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.20 | 25.2% | 6.0% | 2.7% | .286 | 3.68 | 21.9% | 12.2% | 152 | +0.48 | 2.82 | 284 | 63 |
| Trevor May R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.83 | 26.1% | 9.8% | 3.1% | .291 | 3.46 | 31.9% | 23.6% | 150 | -0.37 | 3.04 | 432 | 63 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.03 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.8% | .289 | 3.03 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -1.00 | 2.27 | 426 | 62 |
| Will Vest R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.90 | 28.5% | 8.3% | 3.9% | .281 | 2.70 | 23.9% | 17.2% | 166 | -1.20 | 2.58 | 448 | 61 |
| Nick Anderson R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.96 | 31.9% | 7.3% | 4.8% | .315 | 1.80 | 42.3% | 37.0% | 81 | -2.16 | 0.97 | 411 | 61 |
| Cody Allen R 2026 · 3.05 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.05 | 32.6% | 7.4% | 3.2% | .300 | 5.08 | 27.0% | 14.6% | 90 | +2.03 | 1.58 | 295 | 61 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 3.31 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.31 | 24.5% | 7.9% | 2.3% | .302 | 3.78 | 22.8% | 13.6% | 168 | +0.47 | 1.74 | 468 | 60 |
| Dayan Díaz R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.43 | 25.1% | 8.7% | 2.4% | .358 | 4.01 | 29.4% | 19.3% | 16 | +0.58 | 3.17 | 205 | 60 |
| Junior Guerra R 2028 · 3.02 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.02 | 26.8% | 10.3% | 1.6% | .269 | 4.29 | 20.8% | 10.9% | 390 | +1.27 | 3.02 | 646 | 60 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2028 · 3.05 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.05 | 27.1% | 6.6% | 2.5% | .292 | 4.66 | 22.6% | 14.0% | 137 | +1.61 | 3.05 | 176 | 60 |
| John Brebbia R 2026 · 3.21 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.21 | 30.0% | 6.4% | 3.4% | .317 | 3.04 | 29.3% | 22.2% | 106 | -0.17 | 2.81 | 574 | 60 |
| Matt Ramsey R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.87 | 24.9% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .276 | 2.42 | 21.7% | 12.6% | 34 | -1.45 | 2.42 | 125 | 60 |
| Mayckol Guaipe R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.74 | 26.0% | 7.6% | 3.4% | .432 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.88 | 136 | 59 |
| Michael Tonkin R 2025 · 3.33 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.33 | 29.2% | 9.6% | 2.7% | .309 | 6.08 | 21.8% | 8.3% | 22 | +2.75 | 2.33 | 480 | 59 |
| Joe Navilhon R 2026 · 2.99 FIP | 28 | SU | 2.99 | 24.5% | 7.2% | 1.9% | .307 | 6.20 | 22.0% | 16.0% | 44 | +3.21 | 2.12 | 273 | 59 |
| Ryne Stanek R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.15 | 27.2% | 11.0% | 3.6% | .262 | 3.30 | 28.2% | 15.7% | 123 | -0.85 | 2.92 | 745 | 59 |
| Forrest Snow R 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.42 | 24.0% | 7.6% | 2.5% | .321 | 5.26 | 19.4% | 11.6% | 146 | +1.84 | 3.14 | 406 | 59 |
| Phil Klein R 2025 · 3.17 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.17 | 24.5% | 6.6% | 2.4% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.17 | 178 | 59 |
| Raisel Iglesias R 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.93 | 27.5% | 7.9% | 3.9% | .227 | 2.83 | 34.8% | 29.6% | 160 | -1.10 | 1.35 | 797 | 59 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 61 | 26.7% | 7.2% | 1.12 | 3.79 |
| Zach McAllister ('18) | 4 | 57 | 24.8% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 3.63 |
| Joe Blanton ('17) | 3 | 67 | 24.2% | 6.7% | 1.08 | 3.32 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Kelvin Herrera ('19) | 5 | 59 | 23.8% | 7.3% | 1.03 | 3.58 |
| Blake Parker ('21) | 4 | 60 | 26.6% | 7.3% | 1.40 | 3.36 |
| Adbert Alzolay ('23) | 3 | 70 | 26.1% | 7.0% | 1.32 | 3.84 |