Louis Varland
P
Toronto Blue Jays
+0.7
WAR
Age 28
RHP
6'1" / 205 lbs
MLB
Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030
peak 0.8 · 2027
ERA4.45
FIP4.15
xFIP1.44
SIERA1.37
K%23.7%
BB%7.6%
K-BB%16.1%
IP65
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.8peak
2027
K†6065
FB+4.6 (51%)
CH+1.8 (10%)
SI (4%)
CU (28%)
SL (10%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Cedar Rapids Kernels | 20 | 18 | 103 | 421 | 142 | 30 | 6 | 25.4% | 8.3% | 1.9% | 2.10 | 3.07 | +2.6 |
| 2022 | 24 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 29 | 28 | 152 | 640 | 167 | 47 | 19 | 22.1% | 8.0% | 3.4% | 3.19 | 4.13 | +2.0 |
| 2023 | 25 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 33 | 25 | 150 | 634 | 159 | 43 | 24 | 23.4% | 7.0% | 4.1% | 4.27 | 4.27 | +1.8 |
| 2024 | 26 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 33 | 23 | 133 | 605 | 145 | 47 | 24 | 22.1% | 8.0% | 4.1% | 5.82 | 4.51 | +1.2 |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 74 | 1 | 73 | 296 | 75 | 21 | 6 | 25.3% | 7.1% | 1.8% | 2.97 | 2.85 | +1.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 10 | 0 | 11 | 41 | 16 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | TOR | 54 | — | 54 | 226 | 57 | 17 | 7 | 25.3% | 7.6% | 3.2% | 4.50 | 4.07 | +0.5 |
| 2026 Total | 28 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 65 | 267 | 73 | 20 | 7 | 27.4% | 7.6% | 2.7% | 3.73 | 3.38 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | TOR | 11 | 11 | 63 | 266 | 72 | 20 | 8 | 27.1% | 7.7% | 3.0% | 3.95 | 3.81 | +0.8 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | TOR | 11 | 11 | 61 | 258 | 69 | 20 | 8 | 26.6% | 7.8% | 3.1% | 3.92 | 3.90 | +0.7 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | TOR | 59 | — | 59 | 250 | 65 | 20 | 8 | 26.0% | 7.9% | 3.1% | 3.97 | 4.01 | +0.6 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB | TOR | 57 | — | 57 | 239 | 61 | 19 | 8 | 25.4% | 8.0% | 3.2% | 4.06 | 4.12 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB | TOR | 54 | — | 54 | 228 | 56 | 19 | 8 | 24.7% | 8.2% | 3.3% | 4.17 | 4.25 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 34 | MLB | TOR | 51 | — | 51 | 217 | 52 | 18 | 7 | 24.0% | 8.4% | 3.4% | 4.30 | 4.39 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 35 | MLB | TOR | 48 | — | 48 | 204 | 48 | 18 | 7 | 23.3% | 8.6% | 3.5% | 4.44 | 4.54 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 36 | MLB | TOR | 45 | — | 45 | 191 | 43 | 17 | 7 | 22.5% | 8.9% | 3.6% | 4.60 | 4.70 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 199 | 95 | 622 | 2637 | 621 | 203 | 86 | 23.6% | 7.7% | 3.3% | 3.75 | 3.88 | +10.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 64 | 31 | 200 | 848 | 200 | 65 | 28 | 23.6% | 7.7% | 3.3% | 3.75 | 3.88 | +3.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Louis Varland (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.07 | 25.3% | 7.6% | 3.2% | — | 3.90 | 26.6% | 18.8% | 183 | -0.17 | — | — | — |
| Arquimedes Caminero R 2026 · 3.38 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.38 | 23.0% | 8.5% | 2.1% | .265 | 4.49 | 17.9% | 6.5% | 61 | +1.11 | 3.38 | 173 | 76 |
| Blake Treinen R 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.30 | 24.0% | 9.5% | 1.8% | .271 | 2.97 | 26.0% | 17.7% | 215 | -0.33 | 1.54 | 521 | 75 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.68 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.1% | .289 | 3.07 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -0.61 | 2.31 | 403 | 74 |
| Bo Schultz R 2027 · 4.20 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.20 | 18.3% | 7.9% | 3.0% | .218 | 3.50 | 15.1% | 8.9% | 77 | -0.70 | 2.73 | 141 | 74 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.91 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 2.9% | .348 | 3.55 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 86 | -0.36 | 2.38 | 160 | 74 |
| Robert Stock R 2026 · 2.91 FIP | 28 | SW | 2.91 | 22.2% | 8.5% | 1.1% | .262 | 4.51 | 24.1% | 11.9% | 88 | +1.60 | 2.91 | 334 | 74 |
| Luis García R 2026 · 3.21 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.21 | 20.7% | 9.5% | 1.2% | .327 | 3.19 | 21.6% | 12.8% | 187 | -0.02 | 2.26 | 602 | 73 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.48 | 24.5% | 7.9% | 2.6% | .302 | 3.74 | 22.8% | 13.6% | 168 | +0.26 | 1.69 | 468 | 73 |
| Jaye Chapman R 2026 · 3.34 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.34 | 21.6% | 8.5% | 1.8% | .276 | 4.07 | 20.3% | 11.3% | 85 | +0.73 | 3.25 | 150 | 73 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2029 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.73 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .325 | 3.80 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.07 | 3.65 | 137 | 73 |
| Bryan Evans R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.19 | 17.8% | 6.2% | 3.3% | .250 | 4.61 | 19.7% | 14.9% | 132 | +0.42 | 3.86 | 231 | 72 |
| Taylor Williams R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.16 | 21.9% | 8.4% | 3.4% | .275 | 3.85 | 22.1% | 12.1% | 103 | -0.31 | 2.36 | 309 | 72 |
| Sam Dyson R 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.42 | 19.3% | 8.1% | 1.7% | .287 | 3.85 | 18.9% | 11.9% | 187 | +0.43 | 2.67 | 333 | 72 |
| Andrew Robinson R 2026 · 3.25 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.25 | 22.2% | 7.9% | 1.9% | .247 | 4.33 | 23.4% | 14.6% | 39 | +1.08 | 3.25 | 160 | 72 |
| Jumbo Diaz R 2029 · 3.21 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.21 | 25.2% | 6.0% | 2.7% | .286 | 3.66 | 21.9% | 12.2% | 152 | +0.45 | 2.80 | 284 | 72 |
| Anthony Bass R 2025 · 3.57 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.57 | 16.5% | 7.0% | 1.8% | .300 | 3.43 | 21.6% | 14.2% | 123 | -0.14 | 2.83 | 432 | 72 |
| Miguel Mejia R 2026 · 3.35 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.35 | 19.6% | 7.2% | 1.8% | .359 | 5.13 | 12.8% | 2.8% | 47 | +1.78 | 3.35 | 108 | 72 |
| Zach McAllister R 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.53 | 23.2% | 9.0% | 2.3% | .309 | 4.28 | 24.0% | 17.4% | 119 | +0.75 | 2.83 | 363 | 71 |
| Cody Satterwhite R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.72 | 20.2% | 9.8% | 2.0% | .333 | 4.05 | 17.7% | 10.2% | 75 | +0.33 | 3.70 | 147 | 71 |
| Michael Mariot R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.52 | 22.6% | 9.0% | 2.2% | .327 | 4.82 | 20.9% | 11.8% | 74 | +1.30 | 2.39 | 676 | 71 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb
MLB Debut 2022
Service 1.948 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2030
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.8 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2028 | Arb-1 | $2M | +0.7 | $3M | +$1M |
| 2029 | Arb-2 | $3M | +0.6 | $3M | +$0.0M |
| 2030 | Arb-3 | $3M | +0.5 | $2M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $8M | $14M | +$6M | ||