Louis Varland — OGILVIE

Louis Varland P Toronto Blue Jays

Age 28 RHP 6'1" / 205 lbs MLB peak 0.8 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION73 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 7870vR 62

ERA3.37

FIP3.13

K%28.7%

BB%6.9%

K-BB%21.8%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 79 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5555

CMD5555

K†6065

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9098.8

Whiff%

p7429.1%

p9031.6%

xwOBA vs

p900.232

FB+4.6 (44%)

CH+1.8 (18%)

SI (2%)

CU (30%)

SL (8%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	18	103	421	142	30	6	90%	5.2	25.4%	8.3%	17.1%	2.0%	2.10	3.09	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	18	103	421	142	30	6	90%	5.2	33.7%	7.1%	26.6%	1.4%	2.10	1.97	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	28	152	640	167	47	19	97%	5.3	22.1%	8.0%	14.1%	3.5%	3.19	4.16	+1.3
2022	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	29	28	152	640	167	47	19	97%	5.3	26.1%	7.3%	18.8%	3.0%	3.19	3.45	+2.7
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	25	150	634	159	43	24	76%	4.5	22.7%	6.4%	16.3%	3.9%	4.27	4.12	+1.4
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	25	150	634	159	43	24	76%	4.5	22.7%	6.4%	16.3%	3.9%	4.27	4.12	+1.4
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	25	150	634	159	43	24	76%	4.5	25.1%	6.8%	18.3%	3.8%	4.27	3.92	+1.7
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	23	133	605	145	47	24	70%	4.0	21.3%	7.2%	14.0%	4.1%	5.82	4.46	+0.7
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	23	133	605	145	47	24	70%	4.0	21.3%	7.2%	14.0%	4.1%	5.82	4.46	+0.7
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	23	133	605	145	47	24	70%	4.0	24.0%	7.8%	16.2%	4.0%	5.82	4.33	+0.9
2025	27	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	74	1	73	296	75	21	6	1%	1.0	25.3%	7.1%	18.2%	2.0%	2.97	2.97	+1.4
2025	27	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	74	1	73	296	75	21	6	1%	1.0	25.3%	7.1%	18.2%	2.0%	2.97	2.97	+1.4
2025	27	MLB RAW	Toronto Blue Jays	74	1	73	296	75	21	6	1%	1.0	25.3%	7.1%	18.2%	2.0%	2.97	2.98	+1.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			179	23	290	1211	307	78	40	13%	1.6	25.4%	6.4%	18.9%	3.3%	3.79	3.58	+3.3
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	67	0	73	288	91	20	2	0%	1.1	31.6%	6.9%	24.7%	0.7%	1.23	1.69	+2.5
YTD	28	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	67	0	73	288	91	20	2	0%	1.1	31.6%	6.9%	24.7%	0.7%	1.23	1.69	+2.5
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	MLB RAW	TOR	67	0	73	288	91	20	2	0%	1.1	31.6%	6.9%	24.7%	0.7%	1.23	1.69	+2.5
SO FAR	28	MLB RAW	TOR	67	0	73	288	91	20	2	0%	1.1	31.6%	6.9%	24.7%	0.7%	1.23	1.69	+2.5
ROS	28	MLB MLE	TOR	5	0	5	23	7	2	1	0%	1.1	28.7%	6.9%	21.8%	2.9%	3.37	3.13	+0.1
ROS	28	MLB CTX	TOR	5	0	5	21	6	1	1	0%	1.0	28.7%	6.9%	21.8%	2.9%	3.37	3.13	+0.1
2026 TOT	28	MLB MLE	TOR	—	—	79	311	98	22	3	—	—	31.4%	6.9%	24.4%	0.9%	1.38	1.79	+3.1
FULL	28	MLB A+C	TOR	—	—	79	333	98	22	3	—	—	29.3%	6.5%	22.9%	0.8%	1.38	1.88	+3.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	TOR	59	0	62	261	71	19	6	0%	1.0	27.3%	7.1%	20.1%	2.4%	3.45	3.42	+0.9
2028	30	MLB MLE	TOR	55	0	58	245	65	18	6	0%	1.1	26.6%	7.4%	19.1%	2.6%	3.56	3.63	+0.7
2027	29	MLB CTX	TOR	56	0	59	249	68	18	6	0%	1.1	27.3%	7.1%	20.1%	2.4%	3.45	3.42	+0.8
2028	30	MLB CTX	TOR	52	0	55	232	62	17	6	0%	1.1	26.6%	7.4%	19.1%	2.6%	3.56	3.63	+0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		292	23	409	1714	443	115	53	8%	1.4	25.8%	6.7%	19.2%	3.1%	3.71	3.46	+5.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		143	11	200	839	217	56	26	8%	1.4	25.8%	6.7%	19.2%	3.1%	3.71	3.46	+2.6
Career	—	MLE		256	95	684	2884	687	211	88	37%	2.7	23.8%	7.3%	16.5%	3.0%	3.54	3.69	+4.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		75	28	200	843	201	62	26	37%	2.7	23.8%	7.3%	16.5%	3.0%	3.54	3.69	+2.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Louis Varland (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.07	24.3%	6.9%	3.2%	—	3.52	26.9%	19.6%	120	-0.55	—	—	—
Liam Hendriks R 2017 · 3.30 FIP	28	SU	3.30	28.6%	8.4%	2.8%	.303	1.71	35.2%	30.1%	160	-1.59	0.63	495	73
Trevor May R 2018 · 3.74 FIP	28	SU	3.74	26.1%	9.8%	2.9%	.291	3.47	31.9%	23.6%	150	-0.27	3.05	432	72
Will Vest R 2023 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	28.1%	7.8%	3.6%	.281	2.69	23.9%	17.2%	166	-0.99	2.56	448	68
Jumbo Diaz R 2015 · 3.16 FIP	31	SU	3.16	25.2%	6.0%	2.6%	.286	3.65	21.9%	12.2%	152	+0.49	2.80	284	67
Cody Allen R 2017 · 3.04 FIP	28	SU	3.04	32.6%	7.4%	3.2%	.300	5.02	27.0%	14.6%	90	+1.98	1.58	295	67
Raisel Iglesias R 2018 · 3.88 FIP	28	SU	3.88	27.5%	7.9%	3.8%	.227	2.75	34.8%	29.6%	160	-1.13	1.34	820	67
Héctor Neris R 2017 · 3.18 FIP	28	SU	3.18	26.9%	7.2%	2.6%	.292	3.02	33.6%	25.0%	156	-0.16	2.03	682	67
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	66
Michael Tonkin R 2017 · 3.32 FIP	27	SU	3.32	29.2%	9.6%	2.7%	.309	6.30	21.8%	8.3%	22	+2.98	2.31	480	66
Buck Farmer R 2019 · 3.52 FIP	28	SU	3.52	25.3%	7.6%	2.9%	.292	4.02	23.4%	12.9%	152	+0.50	3.16	907	64
Daniel Hudson R 2015 · 3.35 FIP	28	SU	3.35	24.5%	7.9%	2.4%	.302	3.78	22.8%	13.6%	168	+0.43	1.68	468	64
Ryne Stanek R 2019 · 4.14 FIP	28	SW	4.14	27.2%	11.0%	3.5%	.262	3.39	28.2%	15.7%	123	-0.75	2.96	767	64
Heath Hembree R 2017 · 3.84 FIP	28	SU	3.84	25.8%	6.6%	3.8%	.358	4.69	27.2%	17.7%	119	+0.85	2.58	382	64
Joe Kelly R 2016 · 3.03 FIP	28	SW	3.03	27.3%	9.4%	1.9%	.345	3.32	24.2%	13.8%	175	+0.29	2.38	556	64
John Brebbia R 2018 · 3.20 FIP	28	SU	3.20	30.0%	6.4%	3.3%	.317	3.09	29.3%	22.2%	106	-0.11	2.89	575	64
Dayan Díaz R 2017 · 3.45 FIP	28	SU	3.45	25.1%	8.7%	2.5%	.358	3.96	29.4%	19.3%	16	+0.51	3.08	205	63
Blake Treinen R 2016 · 3.32 FIP	28	SU	3.32	24.0%	9.5%	1.9%	.271	3.04	26.0%	17.7%	215	-0.28	1.53	547	63
Arquimedes Caminero R 2015 · 3.54 FIP	28	SU	3.54	23.0%	8.5%	2.4%	.265	4.45	17.9%	6.5%	61	+0.91	3.54	173	63
JT Chargois R 2019 · 3.63 FIP	28	SU	3.63	27.2%	8.9%	3.1%	.311	3.57	23.1%	15.8%	76	-0.06	2.58	362	63
Chris Hatcher R 2015 · 2.92 FIP	30	SU	2.92	27.1%	6.6%	2.3%	.292	4.67	22.6%	14.0%	137	+1.75	2.92	176	63

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	61	26.0%	7.1%	1.07	3.79
Blake Parker ('21)	1.2	60	26.6%	7.3%	1.40	3.36
Adbert Alzolay ('23)	1.1	70	26.1%	7.0%	1.32	3.84
Richard Rodríguez ('21)	1.1	56	25.0%	6.3%	1.21	3.00
Chris Devenski ('24)	1.9	62	26.0%	6.9%	1.25	3.61
Sean Doolittle ('21)	1.2	49	28.7%	6.2%	1.18	3.31
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97