Jacob Gonzalez
SS Charlotte Knights| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | AA/A+CWS | 572 | .238/.311/.343 | 8 | 17 | 58 | — | .219/.269/.314 |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA/AACWS | 539 | .232/.311/.345 | 8 | 17 | 62 | — | .212/.274/.312 |
| 2026 | 24 | AAACWS | 239 | .320/.424/.675 | 19 | 8 | 138 | — | .268/.352/.526 |
| 2026 | 24 | MLBPIT | 227 | .220/.276/.364 | 7 | 2 | 81 | 0.5 | |
| 2027PROJ10% MLB | 25 | MLBCWS | 24 | .236/.304/.411 | 1 | 0 | 99 | 0.1 | |
| 2028PROJ36% MLB | 26 | MLBCWS | 195 | .236/.304/.411 | 7 | 4 | 99 | 0.7 | |
| 2029PROJ49% MLB | 27 | MLBCWS | 255 | .235/.303/.408 | 9 | 4 | 98 | 0.8 |
Tools · Recent Form · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 21 | A | Kannapolis Cannon Ballers | — | 137 | 111 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 23 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 207 | 338 | 261 | 600 | 54 | 242 | 17 | 15 | 281 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | ROK | ACL White Sox | — | 16 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 250 | 400 | 250 | 650 | 273 | 12 | 19 | 300 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2024 | 22 | AA | Birmingham Barons | — | 407 | 365 | 82 | 20 | 0 | 5 | 28 | 57 | 5 | 10 | 5 | 225 | 289 | 321 | 609 | 96 | 248 | 14 | 7 | 272 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 165 | 143 | 39 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 17 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 273 | 366 | 399 | 764 | 126 | 290 | 10 | 12 | 345 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | — | 171 | 147 | 30 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 34 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 204 | 312 | 293 | 604 | 88 | 250 | 20 | 12 | 283 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA | Birmingham Barons | — | 368 | 328 | 80 | 19 | 2 | 6 | 28 | 52 | 4 | 12 | 3 | 244 | 311 | 369 | 680 | 125 | 267 | 14 | 8 | 300 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | — | 227 | 209 | 46 | 9 | 0 | 7 | 12 | 44 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 220 | 276 | 364 | 639 | 144 | 245 | 19 | 5 | 285 | 81 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +5 | +5 | 0.5 |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | — | 239 | 200 | 64 | 12 | 1 | 19 | 33 | 49 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 320 | 424 | 675 | 1.099 | 355 | 338 | 21 | 14 | 463 | 138 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 227 | 209 | 46 | 9 | 0 | 7 | 12 | 44 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 220 | 276 | 364 | 639 | 144 | 245 | 19 | 5 | 285 | 79 | -6 | +0 | +0 | +5 | +5 | 0.4 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 21 | A MLE | Kannapolis Cannon Ballers | — | 137 | 116 | 22 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 31 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 190 | 293 | 241 | 535 | 52 | 226 | 23 | 11 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | ROK MLE | ACL White Sox | — | 16 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 231 | 333 | 231 | 564 | 224 | 19 | 12 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2024 | 22 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 407 | 375 | 80 | 19 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 71 | 5 | 10 | 5 | 213 | 259 | 304 | 563 | 91 | 237 | 17 | 4 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ MLE | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 165 | 151 | 35 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 23 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 232 | 293 | 338 | 630 | 106 | 251 | 14 | 7 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | — | 171 | 152 | 26 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 41 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 171 | 259 | 230 | 489 | 59 | 225 | 24 | 9 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 368 | 337 | 78 | 18 | 2 | 6 | 19 | 62 | 4 | 12 | 3 | 231 | 281 | 350 | 631 | 119 | 251 | 17 | 5 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | MLB MLE | Pittsburgh Pirates | — | 227 | 209 | 47 | 9 | 0 | 8 | 12 | 44 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 225 | 280 | 383 | 663 | 158 | 245 | 19 | 5 | 288 | 81 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +5 | +5 | 0.5 |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | — | 239 | 209 | 56 | 10 | 1 | 14 | 24 | 59 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 268 | 352 | 526 | 878 | 258 | 301 | 25 | 10 | 372 | 138 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 153 | 129 | 25 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 34 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 194 | 297 | 240 | 538 | 47 | 242 | 22 | 11 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 153 | 123 | 26 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 211 | 345 | 260 | 605 | 49 | 245 | 16 | 15 | 283 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 572 | 525 | 114 | 24 | 1 | 8 | 30 | 94 | 7 | 17 | 6 | 217 | 269 | 312 | 581 | 95 | 246 | 16 | 5 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 572 | 508 | 121 | 27 | 1 | 8 | 47 | 74 | 7 | 17 | 6 | 238 | 311 | 343 | 654 | 104 | 260 | 13 | 8 | 293 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 539 | 489 | 105 | 24 | 2 | 8 | 34 | 103 | 7 | 17 | 3 | 215 | 275 | 321 | 597 | 106 | 251 | 19 | 6 | 259 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 539 | 475 | 110 | 26 | 2 | 8 | 48 | 86 | 7 | 17 | 3 | 232 | 311 | 345 | 657 | 114 | 262 | 16 | 9 | 295 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 466 | 418 | 103 | 19 | 1 | 22 | 36 | 103 | 7 | 10 | 4 | 246 | 317 | 455 | 771 | 208 | 275 | 22 | 8 | 331 | 110 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 466 | 409 | 110 | 21 | 1 | 26 | 45 | 93 | 7 | 10 | 4 | 269 | 351 | 516 | 867 | 247 | 288 | 20 | 10 | 376 | 110 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 153 | 133 | 25 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 34 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 188 | 297 | 233 | 530 | 45 | 226 | 22 | 11 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 572 | 530 | 114 | 24 | 1 | 8 | 30 | 94 | 7 | 17 | 6 | 215 | 269 | 309 | 578 | 94 | 241 | 16 | 5 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 539 | 493 | 105 | 24 | 2 | 8 | 34 | 103 | 7 | 17 | 3 | 213 | 275 | 318 | 594 | 105 | 243 | 19 | 6 | 259 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 466 | 420 | 103 | 19 | 1 | 22 | 36 | 103 | 7 | 10 | 4 | 245 | 317 | 452 | 769 | 207 | 274 | 22 | 8 | 331 | 110 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 572 | 530 | 114 | 24 | 1 | 8 | 30 | 94 | 7 | 17 | 6 | 215 | 269 | 309 | 578 | 94 | 241 | 16 | 5 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 539 | 493 | 105 | 24 | 2 | 8 | 34 | 103 | 7 | 17 | 3 | 213 | 275 | 318 | 594 | 105 | 243 | 19 | 6 | 259 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 466 | 420 | 103 | 19 | 1 | 22 | 36 | 103 | 7 | 10 | 4 | 245 | 317 | 452 | 769 | 207 | 274 | 22 | 8 | 331 | 110 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB MLE | CWS | 10% | 380 | 344 | 81 | 16 | 1 | 14 | 28 | 80 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 235 | 303 | 407 | 710 | 172 | 265 | 21 | 7 | 314 | 99 | -1 | +1 | +0 | +4 | +8 | 1.0 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB CTX | CWS | 10% | 24 | 22 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 236 | 304 | 411 | 715 | 175 | 266 | 21 | 8 | 316 | 99 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +1 | 0.1 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 26 | MLB MLE | CWS | 36% | 539 | 486 | 114 | 22 | 2 | 19 | 41 | 114 | 7 | 10 | 3 | 235 | 303 | 407 | 710 | 172 | 265 | 21 | 8 | 314 | 99 | -1 | +1 | +0 | +6 | +12 | 1.8 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB MLE | CWS | 49% | 525 | 473 | 111 | 21 | 2 | 19 | 40 | 112 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 234 | 302 | 405 | 706 | 171 | 265 | 21 | 8 | 313 | 98 | -1 | +1 | +0 | +6 | +11 | 1.7 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB MLE | CWS | 56% | 511 | 461 | 108 | 21 | 2 | 18 | 39 | 110 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 232 | 300 | 400 | 700 | 168 | 264 | 22 | 8 | 310 | 96 | -2 | +0 | -1 | +5 | +11 | 1.4 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB MLE | CWS | 59% | 496 | 450 | 103 | 20 | 1 | 17 | 37 | 108 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 230 | 297 | 394 | 692 | 164 | 263 | 22 | 7 | 307 | 94 | -4 | +0 | -1 | +5 | +11 | 1.2 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB MLE | CWS | 61% | 483 | 438 | 99 | 19 | 1 | 16 | 36 | 107 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 227 | 294 | 387 | 681 | 160 | 261 | 22 | 7 | 303 | 91 | -5 | -0 | -2 | +5 | +10 | 0.8 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB MLE | CWS | 62% | 286 | 260 | 58 | 11 | 1 | 9 | 21 | 64 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 223 | 289 | 377 | 667 | 154 | 259 | 22 | 7 | 297 | 87 | -4 | -0 | -3 | +3 | +6 | 0.2 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB MLE | CWS | 62% | 263 | 239 | 53 | 10 | 1 | 8 | 19 | 60 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 218 | 283 | 365 | 648 | 147 | 255 | 23 | 7 | 289 | 82 | -6 | -0 | -3 | +3 | +6 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB CTX | CWS | 36% | 195 | 175 | 42 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 15 | 41 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 236 | 304 | 411 | 715 | 175 | 266 | 21 | 8 | 316 | 99 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +4 | 0.7 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB CTX | CWS | 49% | 255 | 231 | 54 | 11 | 1 | 9 | 19 | 54 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 235 | 303 | 408 | 711 | 173 | 266 | 21 | 7 | 315 | 98 | -1 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +6 | 0.8 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB CTX | CWS | 56% | 287 | 259 | 61 | 12 | 1 | 10 | 22 | 62 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 233 | 301 | 404 | 705 | 171 | 265 | 22 | 8 | 312 | 96 | -1 | +0 | -0 | +3 | +6 | 0.8 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB CTX | CWS | 59% | 292 | 264 | 61 | 12 | 1 | 10 | 22 | 64 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 231 | 298 | 398 | 696 | 167 | 264 | 22 | 8 | 309 | 94 | -2 | +0 | -1 | +3 | +6 | 0.7 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB CTX | CWS | 61% | 293 | 266 | 61 | 12 | 1 | 10 | 22 | 65 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 228 | 295 | 390 | 685 | 162 | 262 | 22 | 8 | 304 | 91 | -3 | +0 | -1 | +3 | +6 | 0.5 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB CTX | CWS | 62% | 177 | 160 | 36 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 13 | 40 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 224 | 290 | 381 | 671 | 157 | 259 | 23 | 7 | 299 | 87 | -3 | -0 | -2 | +2 | +4 | 0.1 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB CTX | CWS | 62% | 164 | 149 | 32 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 38 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 219 | 284 | 368 | 652 | 149 | 256 | 23 | 7 | 291 | 82 | -4 | +0 | -2 | +2 | +4 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 1890 | 1713 | 393 | 77 | 5 | 64 | 137 | 408 | 25 | 19 | 7 | 229 | 296 | 392 | 688 | 163 | 263 | 22 | 7 | 305 | 87 | -20 | +1 | -6 | +23 | +41 | 4.0 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 589 | 135 | 26 | 2 | 22 | 47 | 140 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 229 | 296 | 392 | 688 | 163 | 263 | 22 | 7 | 305 | 87 | -7 | +0 | -2 | +8 | +14 | 1.4 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 5071 | 4583 | 1044 | 204 | 15 | 154 | 368 | 1059 | 64 | 84 | 30 | 228 | 294 | 380 | 674 | 152 | 261 | 21 | 7 | 297 | 87 | -29 | +1 | -9 | +41 | +77 | 8.2 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 587 | 134 | 26 | 2 | 20 | 47 | 136 | 8 | 11 | 4 | 228 | 294 | 382 | 676 | 153 | 261 | 21 | 7 | 297 | 87 | -5 | +0 | -2 | +7 | +14 | 1.5 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAACharlotte Knights · 239 PAwOBA .452 → .372 (−80)K% 20.5% → 24.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.50% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 24.60% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.81% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 9.98% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.26% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 1.24% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.19% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×0.975 | ×1.048 | 20.13% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.95% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.975 | ×1.048 | 6.74% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.66% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.975 | ×1.048 | 0.66% |
| Home runs /BIP | 12.58% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 9.23% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.975.
Result: wOBA .452 → .372; ISO .355 → .274; BABIP .338 → .301. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AABirmingham Barons · 368 PAwOBA .298 → .274 (−24)K% 14.1% → 16.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.13% | ÷1.020 | ×1.220 | — | — | 16.91% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.61% | ÷1.020 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.027 | 5.21% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.09% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.027 | 0.94% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.20% | ÷0.954 | ×0.920 | ×0.963 | ×1.027 | 18.31% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.88% | ÷0.984 | ×0.910 | ×0.963 | ×1.027 | 6.30% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.72% | ÷1.150 | ×0.880 | ×0.963 | ×1.027 | 0.55% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.17% | ÷0.784 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 2.28% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 57, 1B 91, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 104, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.963.
Result: wOBA .298 → .274; ISO .125 → .123; BABIP .267 → .251. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAACharlotte Knights · 171 PAwOBA .277 → .228 (−49)K% 19.9% → 24.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.88% | ÷0.996 | ×1.200 | — | — | 23.97% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.70% | ÷0.984 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 8.61% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.75% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 1.73% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.58% | ÷1.002 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×1.050 | 17.20% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.19% | ÷0.980 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.050 | 5.23% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.961 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.77% | ÷1.320 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 0.99% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 164, 1B 100, 2B 96, 3B 92, K 99, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .277 → .228; ISO .088 → .063; BABIP .250 → .225. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AABirmingham Barons · 407 PAwOBA .270 → .244 (−26)K% 14.0% → 17.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.00% | ÷0.980 | ×1.220 | — | — | 17.44% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.88% | ÷1.081 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.042 | 4.51% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.23% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.042 | 1.08% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.51% | ÷0.979 | ×0.920 | ×0.982 | ×1.042 | 17.80% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.49% | ÷0.990 | ×0.910 | ×0.982 | ×1.042 | 6.11% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.044 | ×0.880 | ×0.982 | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.62% | ÷0.935 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.042 | 1.45% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 96, 2B 98, 3B 109, K 96, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.982.
Result: wOBA .270 → .244; ISO .096 → .090; BABIP .248 → .237. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 165 PAwOBA .338 → .282 (−57)K% 10.3% → 14.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 10.30% | ÷0.952 | ×1.310 | — | — | 14.18% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.52% | ÷1.006 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.012 | 6.95% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.21% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.012 | 0.94% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.22% | ÷0.972 | ×0.870 | ×0.989 | ×1.012 | 19.90% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.56% | ÷1.070 | ×0.780 | ×0.989 | ×1.012 | 4.05% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.79% | ÷0.929 | ×0.850 | ×0.989 | ×1.012 | 0.73% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.38% | ÷0.817 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 2.60% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 63, 1B 94, 2B 114, 3B 86, K 90, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.989.
Result: wOBA .338 → .282; ISO .126 → .120; BABIP .290 → .251. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AKannapolis Cannon Ballers · 137 PAwOBA .283 → .245 (−39)K% 16.8% → 22.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.79% | ÷1.004 | ×1.360 | — | — | 22.75% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.60% | ÷0.951 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 10.75% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.46% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 1.16% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.59% | ÷1.002 | ×0.920 | ×1.021 | ×1.015 | 20.55% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.41% | ÷1.050 | ×0.830 | ×1.021 | ×1.015 | 2.79% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.988 | ×0.910 | ×1.021 | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.14% | ÷0.861 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 1.07% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 72, 1B 100, 2B 110, 3B 98, K 101, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.021.
Result: wOBA .283 → .245; ISO .054 → .048; BABIP .242 → .226. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKACL White Sox · 16 PAwOBA .314 → .249 (−65)K% 12.5% → 18.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.50% | ÷0.994 | ×1.440 | — | — | 18.12% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 18.75% | ÷0.951 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.985 | 12.05% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.00% | ÷0.991 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.985 | 24.44% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.942 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.099 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷2.194 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 339, 1B 98, 2B 88, 3B 120, K 99, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .314 → .249; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .273 → .224. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).