Devin Mann
3B Sacramento River Cats| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 26 | AAAKC | 550 | .276/.390/.502 | 20 | 4 | 93 | — | .224/.310/.391 |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA/INTL2 orgs | 485 | .252/.357/.417 | 15 | 4 | 73 | — | .203/.279/.308 |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA/AASF | 267 | .224/.346/.336 | 4 | 1 | 53 | — | .183/.275/.268 |
| 2027PROJ10% MLB | 30 | MLBSF | 16 | .209/.292/.311 | 0 | 0 | 76 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ27% MLB | 31 | MLBSF | 43 | .206/.288/.306 | 1 | 0 | 73 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 40
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 21 | A | Great Lakes Loons | — | 264 | 224 | 54 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 34 | 50 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 241 | 351 | 335 | 686 | 94 | 299 | 19 | 13 | 316 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 424 | 367 | 102 | 19 | 2 | 19 | 45 | 93 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 278 | 365 | 496 | 860 | 218 | 317 | 22 | 11 | 373 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | ROK | AZL Dodgers Lasorda | — | 16 | 14 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 500 | 562 | 643 | 1.205 | 143 | 538 | 6 | 12 | 531 | 150 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | INTL | Glendale Desert Dogs | — | 59 | 47 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 191 | 345 | 340 | 685 | 149 | 222 | 19 | 19 | 314 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | — | 440 | 369 | 90 | 27 | 1 | 14 | 49 | 100 | 15 | 6 | 4 | 244 | 356 | 436 | 792 | 192 | 290 | 23 | 11 | 350 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA | Oklahoma City Dodgers | — | 156 | 132 | 34 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 21 | 36 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 258 | 372 | 455 | 826 | 197 | 319 | 23 | 13 | 369 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | — | 295 | 243 | 65 | 16 | 0 | 11 | 43 | 50 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 267 | 387 | 469 | 856 | 202 | 292 | 17 | 15 | 378 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA | Omaha Storm Chasers | — | 550 | 460 | 127 | 42 | 1 | 20 | 79 | 149 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 276 | 390 | 502 | 892 | 226 | 363 | 27 | 14 | 392 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA | Omaha Storm Chasers | — | 403 | 343 | 88 | 17 | 0 | 13 | 48 | 90 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 257 | 359 | 420 | 779 | 163 | 310 | 22 | 12 | 347 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | INTL | Criollos de Caguas | — | 82 | 69 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 232 | 346 | 406 | 751 | 174 | 286 | 22 | 15 | 335 | 113 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | — | 199 | 163 | 41 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 28 | 36 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 252 | 384 | 356 | 740 | 104 | 310 | 18 | 14 | 343 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 68 | 60 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 150 | 235 | 283 | 519 | 133 | 184 | 29 | 9 | 238 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 21 | A MLE | Great Lakes Loons | — | 264 | 233 | 46 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 25 | 66 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 197 | 286 | 262 | 548 | 64 | 264 | 25 | 9 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ MLE | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 424 | 378 | 82 | 15 | 1 | 17 | 34 | 126 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 217 | 290 | 397 | 687 | 180 | 264 | 30 | 8 | 301 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | ROK MLE | AZL Dodgers Lasorda | — | 16 | 15 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 333 | 375 | 400 | 775 | 67 | 415 | 6 | 6 | 390 | 150 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA MLE | Tulsa Drillers | — | 440 | 386 | 77 | 22 | 1 | 12 | 32 | 126 | 15 | 6 | 4 | 199 | 286 | 355 | 641 | 155 | 246 | 29 | 7 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA MLE | Oklahoma City Dodgers | — | 156 | 139 | 31 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 43 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 223 | 308 | 381 | 689 | 158 | 293 | 28 | 9 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA MLE | Tulsa Drillers | — | 295 | 256 | 58 | 13 | 0 | 9 | 31 | 63 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 227 | 322 | 383 | 705 | 156 | 254 | 21 | 11 | 308 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA MLE | Omaha Storm Chasers | — | 550 | 486 | 109 | 34 | 1 | 15 | 53 | 180 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 224 | 310 | 391 | 700 | 167 | 311 | 33 | 10 | 306 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA MLE | Omaha Storm Chasers | — | 403 | 360 | 73 | 14 | 0 | 8 | 31 | 111 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 203 | 279 | 308 | 587 | 106 | 264 | 28 | 8 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA MLE | Sacramento River Cats | — | 199 | 173 | 36 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 43 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 208 | 308 | 295 | 603 | 87 | 259 | 22 | 9 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AA MLE | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 68 | 63 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 24 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 111 | 176 | 190 | 367 | 79 | 156 | 35 | 6 | 173 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A MLE | Great Lakes Loons | — | 264 | 233 | 46 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 25 | 66 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 197 | 286 | 262 | 548 | 64 | 268 | 25 | 9 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A RAW | Great Lakes Loons | — | 264 | 224 | 54 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 34 | 50 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 241 | 351 | 335 | 686 | 94 | 299 | 19 | 13 | 316 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 499 | 446 | 102 | 19 | 2 | 20 | 40 | 144 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 229 | 299 | 415 | 714 | 186 | 283 | 29 | 8 | 304 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 499 | 428 | 118 | 25 | 2 | 20 | 58 | 105 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 276 | 369 | 484 | 852 | 208 | 315 | 21 | 12 | 371 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA MLE | Tulsa Drillers | — | 440 | 386 | 77 | 22 | 1 | 12 | 32 | 126 | 15 | 6 | 4 | 199 | 286 | 355 | 641 | 155 | 255 | 29 | 7 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA RAW | Tulsa Drillers | — | 440 | 369 | 90 | 27 | 1 | 14 | 49 | 100 | 15 | 6 | 4 | 244 | 356 | 436 | 792 | 192 | 290 | 23 | 11 | 350 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 451 | 395 | 88 | 17 | 3 | 13 | 45 | 106 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 223 | 315 | 380 | 694 | 157 | 269 | 24 | 10 | 305 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 451 | 375 | 99 | 21 | 3 | 16 | 64 | 86 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 264 | 382 | 464 | 846 | 200 | 301 | 19 | 14 | 375 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA MLE | Omaha Storm Chasers | — | 550 | 486 | 109 | 34 | 1 | 15 | 53 | 180 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 224 | 310 | 391 | 700 | 167 | 319 | 33 | 10 | 306 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA RAW | Omaha Storm Chasers | — | 550 | 460 | 127 | 42 | 1 | 20 | 79 | 149 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 276 | 390 | 502 | 892 | 226 | 363 | 27 | 14 | 392 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 485 | 435 | 89 | 17 | 0 | 10 | 37 | 133 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 205 | 278 | 313 | 590 | 108 | 269 | 27 | 8 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 485 | 412 | 104 | 21 | 1 | 15 | 60 | 108 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 252 | 357 | 417 | 774 | 165 | 306 | 22 | 12 | 345 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 267 | 235 | 43 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 23 | 67 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 183 | 278 | 268 | 546 | 85 | 241 | 25 | 9 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 267 | 223 | 50 | 13 | 0 | 4 | 34 | 56 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 224 | 346 | 336 | 682 | 112 | 280 | 21 | 13 | 316 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A MLE | Great Lakes Loons | — | 264 | 233 | 46 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 25 | 66 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 197 | 286 | 262 | 548 | 64 | 264 | 25 | 9 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 499 | 451 | 102 | 19 | 2 | 20 | 40 | 144 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 226 | 299 | 410 | 710 | 184 | 269 | 29 | 8 | 304 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA MLE | Tulsa Drillers | — | 440 | 390 | 77 | 22 | 1 | 12 | 32 | 126 | 15 | 6 | 4 | 197 | 286 | 351 | 638 | 154 | 246 | 29 | 7 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 451 | 395 | 88 | 17 | 3 | 13 | 45 | 106 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 223 | 315 | 380 | 694 | 157 | 267 | 24 | 10 | 305 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA MLE | Omaha Storm Chasers | — | 550 | 485 | 109 | 34 | 1 | 15 | 53 | 180 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 225 | 310 | 392 | 701 | 167 | 311 | 33 | 10 | 306 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 485 | 438 | 89 | 17 | 0 | 10 | 37 | 133 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 203 | 278 | 311 | 588 | 107 | 264 | 27 | 8 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 267 | 234 | 43 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 23 | 67 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 184 | 278 | 269 | 547 | 85 | 233 | 25 | 9 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 485 | 438 | 89 | 17 | 0 | 10 | 37 | 133 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 203 | 278 | 311 | 588 | 107 | 264 | 27 | 8 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 267 | 234 | 43 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 23 | 67 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 184 | 278 | 269 | 547 | 85 | 233 | 25 | 9 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB MLE | SF | 10% | 317 | 281 | 60 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 27 | 77 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 212 | 295 | 319 | 614 | 106 | 271 | 24 | 9 | 280 | 76 | -9 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +7 | 0.0 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB CTX | SF | 10% | 16 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 209 | 292 | 311 | 603 | 102 | 267 | 25 | 6 | 276 | 76 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 31 | MLB MLE | SF | 27% | 159 | 142 | 28 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 39 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 209 | 291 | 313 | 604 | 103 | 268 | 25 | 8 | 276 | 73 | -5 | +0 | -3 | +1 | +3 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB CTX | SF | 27% | 43 | 38 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 206 | 288 | 306 | 594 | 100 | 265 | 26 | 9 | 272 | 73 | -1 | +0 | -1 | +0 | +1 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 43 | 38 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 211 | 302 | 342 | 644 | 132 | 269 | 26 | 9 | 272 | 78 | -1 | +0 | -1 | +0 | +1 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 574 | 121 | 30 | 0 | 15 | 60 | 166 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 211 | 302 | 341 | 643 | 131 | 270 | 26 | 9 | 272 | 78 | -21 | +0 | -11 | +2 | +14 | -1.6 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3270 | 2896 | 610 | 142 | 8 | 78 | 281 | 899 | 60 | 31 | 20 | 211 | 294 | 346 | 640 | 135 | 273 | 27 | 9 | 284 | 78 | -10 | +0 | -3 | +1 | +7 | -0.4 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 576 | 122 | 28 | 2 | 16 | 56 | 179 | 12 | 6 | 4 | 212 | 295 | 351 | 646 | 139 | 274 | 28 | 9 | 284 | 78 | -20 | +0 | -6 | +2 | +14 | -0.9 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2025 AAASacramento River Cats · 199 PAwOBA .335 → .272 (−63)K% 18.1% → 21.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.09% | ÷1.010 | ×1.200 | — | — | 21.49% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.57% | ÷1.011 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 9.19% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.52% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 3.28% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.05% | ÷1.030 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×0.992 | 18.76% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.66% | ÷0.959 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.992 | 7.06% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.57% | ÷0.938 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 1.17% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 106, 2B 92, 3B 80, K 102, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .335 → .272; ISO .104 → .085; BABIP .310 → .259. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 68 PAwOBA .232 → .173 (−59)K% 29.4% → 35.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.41% | ÷1.018 | ×1.220 | — | — | 35.26% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.82% | ÷0.962 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.968 | 6.22% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.47% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.968 | 1.21% |
| Singles /BIP | 12.50% | ÷1.004 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×0.968 | 11.11% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.00% | ÷0.992 | ×0.860 | ×0.950 | ×0.968 | 3.99% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×0.950 | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.00% | ÷1.183 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.968 | 3.19% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 137, 1B 101, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 104, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .232 → .173; ISO .133 → .088; BABIP .184 → .156. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 403 PAwOBA .339 → .264 (−75)K% 22.3% → 27.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.33% | ÷0.976 | ×1.200 | — | — | 27.45% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.66% | ÷1.049 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 7.70% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.74% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 1.64% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.92% | ÷1.007 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×1.003 | 20.18% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.72% | ÷0.958 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.003 | 5.54% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.935 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.14% | ÷1.111 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 3.25% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 122, 1B 101, 2B 92, 3B 87, K 95, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .339 → .264; ISO .163 → .114; BABIP .310 → .264. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 550 PAwOBA .384 → .306 (−78)K% 27.1% → 32.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.09% | ÷0.995 | ×1.200 | — | — | 32.67% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.18% | ÷1.030 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 9.67% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.27% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 1.22% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.58% | ÷0.978 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 18.92% |
| Doubles /BIP | 13.50% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 10.84% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.32% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 0.26% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.43% | ÷0.942 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 4.87% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 96, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 99, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .384 → .306; ISO .226 → .175; BABIP .363 → .311. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AATulsa Drillers · 295 PAwOBA .372 → .308 (−65)K% 16.9% → 21.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.95% | ÷0.971 | ×1.220 | — | — | 21.29% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.58% | ÷0.975 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 10.44% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.69% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.998 | 1.47% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.69% | ÷0.953 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 18.02% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.29% | ÷1.006 | ×0.840 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 6.56% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.70% | ÷0.993 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 4.58% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 91, 2B 101, 3B 130, K 94, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .372 → .308; ISO .202 → .165; BABIP .292 → .254. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAAOklahoma City Dodgers · 156 PAwOBA .360 → .299 (−60)K% 23.1% → 27.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.08% | ÷1.009 | ×1.200 | — | — | 27.44% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.46% | ÷1.073 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 8.94% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.92% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 1.87% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.88% | ÷1.027 | ×0.930 | ×0.992 | ×1.033 | 20.29% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.21% | ÷0.958 | ×0.830 | ×0.992 | ×1.033 | 4.63% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.12% | ÷0.955 | ×0.970 | ×0.992 | ×1.033 | 3.25% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.21% | ÷0.997 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 3.78% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 105, 2B 92, 3B 91, K 102, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.992.
Result: wOBA .360 → .299; ISO .197 → .164; BABIP .319 → .293. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AATulsa Drillers · 440 PAwOBA .346 → .280 (−66)K% 22.7% → 28.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.73% | ÷0.966 | ×1.220 | — | — | 28.69% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.91% | ÷1.051 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.012 | 7.25% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.41% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 2.93% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.84% | ÷1.030 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 15.65% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.04% | ÷1.026 | ×0.870 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 8.18% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.37% | ÷0.900 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 0.37% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.20% | ÷0.935 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 4.39% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 106, 2B 105, 3B 80, K 93, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .346 → .280; ISO .192 → .161; BABIP .290 → .246. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 A+Rancho Cucamonga Quakes · 424 PAwOBA .370 → .301 (−68)K% 21.9% → 29.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.93% | ÷0.991 | ×1.340 | — | — | 29.66% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.61% | ÷0.948 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 8.05% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.18% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.012 | 0.94% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.63% | ÷1.043 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 18.97% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.93% | ÷0.935 | ×0.820 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 5.85% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.73% | ÷1.049 | ×0.760 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 0.51% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.93% | ÷0.969 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.012 | 6.66% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 109, 2B 87, 3B 110, K 98, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .370 → .301; ISO .218 → .190; BABIP .317 → .264. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .