Alex De Goti
SS Round Rock Express| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 28 | AAAMIN | 193 | .179/.333/.276 | 2 | 2 | 29 | — | .137/.245/.190 |
| 2024 | 29 | AAA/AATEX | 257 | .225/.323/.279 | 1 | 11 | 36 | — | .185/.256/.228 |
| 2025 | 30 | AAATEX | 335 | .229/.335/.301 | 3 | 3 | 49 | — | .191/.271/.246 |
| 2027PROJ10% MLB | 32 | MLBTEX | 16 | .197/.273/.272 | 0 | 0 | 56 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ27% MLB | 33 | MLBTEX | 49 | .194/.268/.265 | 0 | 0 | 53 | -0.2 |
Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 35
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2017 | 22 | A+ | Buies Creek Astros | — | 272 | 238 | 54 | 13 | 0 | 5 | 28 | 65 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 227 | 319 | 345 | 663 | 118 | 290 | 24 | 10 | 302 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 145 | 119 | 31 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 24 | 29 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 261 | 393 | 387 | 780 | 126 | 322 | 20 | 17 | 359 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AAA | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 108 | 94 | 27 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 15 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 287 | 362 | 404 | 766 | 117 | 325 | 14 | 9 | 337 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 387 | 358 | 101 | 21 | 3 | 11 | 18 | 65 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 282 | 331 | 450 | 780 | 168 | 317 | 17 | 5 | 343 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AAA | Round Rock Express | — | 548 | 481 | 133 | 29 | 3 | 15 | 52 | 105 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 277 | 353 | 443 | 796 | 166 | 319 | 19 | 9 | 349 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA | Sugar Land Skeeters | — | 438 | 383 | 89 | 22 | 5 | 5 | 46 | 108 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 232 | 323 | 355 | 678 | 123 | 308 | 25 | 11 | 306 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | — | 577 | 494 | 125 | 28 | 3 | 9 | 73 | 104 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 253 | 355 | 377 | 731 | 123 | 301 | 18 | 13 | 331 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | INTL | Leones del Escogido | — | 65 | 56 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 161 | 277 | 214 | 491 | 54 | 220 | 23 | 14 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | — | 193 | 156 | 28 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 33 | 52 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 179 | 333 | 276 | 609 | 96 | 255 | 27 | 17 | 292 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 29 | AAA | Round Rock Express | — | 107 | 94 | 25 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 23 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 266 | 343 | 330 | 673 | 64 | 343 | 21 | 9 | 305 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 29 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 150 | 128 | 25 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 33 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 195 | 309 | 242 | 551 | 47 | 263 | 22 | 11 | 264 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 30 | AAA | Round Rock Express | — | 335 | 279 | 64 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 41 | 74 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 229 | 335 | 301 | 636 | 72 | 293 | 22 | 12 | 290 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2017 | 22 | A+ MLE | Buies Creek Astros | — | 272 | 248 | 42 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 97 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 169 | 237 | 254 | 491 | 85 | 255 | 36 | 7 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A MLE | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 145 | 126 | 27 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 37 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 214 | 317 | 302 | 619 | 87 | 288 | 26 | 12 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AAA MLE | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 108 | 97 | 25 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 20 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 258 | 314 | 361 | 675 | 103 | 292 | 19 | 6 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA MLE | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 387 | 364 | 85 | 16 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 80 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 234 | 273 | 360 | 633 | 126 | 272 | 21 | 3 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 548 | 496 | 116 | 23 | 2 | 13 | 37 | 133 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 234 | 294 | 367 | 661 | 133 | 279 | 24 | 7 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA MLE | Sugar Land Skeeters | — | 438 | 396 | 77 | 19 | 4 | 4 | 33 | 129 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 194 | 265 | 293 | 558 | 98 | 269 | 29 | 8 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA MLE | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | — | 577 | 515 | 114 | 24 | 3 | 7 | 52 | 126 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 221 | 299 | 320 | 619 | 99 | 274 | 22 | 9 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA MLE | St. Paul Saints | — | 193 | 168 | 23 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 64 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 137 | 245 | 190 | 435 | 54 | 213 | 33 | 11 | 211 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 29 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 107 | 98 | 22 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 26 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 224 | 276 | 276 | 552 | 51 | 297 | 24 | 6 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 29 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 150 | 134 | 21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 40 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 157 | 242 | 194 | 436 | 37 | 220 | 27 | 7 | 201 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 30 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 335 | 293 | 56 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 28 | 82 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 191 | 271 | 246 | 517 | 55 | 244 | 24 | 8 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 417 | 374 | 70 | 13 | 1 | 6 | 35 | 134 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 187 | 267 | 275 | 543 | 88 | 272 | 32 | 8 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 417 | 357 | 85 | 17 | 1 | 8 | 52 | 94 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 238 | 345 | 359 | 703 | 120 | 301 | 23 | 12 | 322 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 495 | 460 | 110 | 23 | 3 | 9 | 20 | 99 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 239 | 284 | 361 | 645 | 122 | 284 | 20 | 4 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 495 | 452 | 128 | 29 | 3 | 12 | 28 | 80 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 283 | 337 | 440 | 778 | 157 | 319 | 16 | 6 | 342 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 548 | 496 | 116 | 23 | 2 | 13 | 37 | 133 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 234 | 294 | 367 | 661 | 133 | 287 | 24 | 7 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AAA RAW | Round Rock Express | — | 548 | 481 | 133 | 29 | 3 | 15 | 52 | 105 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 277 | 353 | 443 | 796 | 166 | 319 | 19 | 9 | 349 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA MLE | Sugar Land Skeeters | — | 438 | 396 | 77 | 19 | 4 | 4 | 33 | 129 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 194 | 265 | 293 | 558 | 98 | 274 | 29 | 8 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA RAW | Sugar Land Skeeters | — | 438 | 383 | 89 | 22 | 5 | 5 | 46 | 108 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 232 | 323 | 355 | 678 | 123 | 308 | 25 | 11 | 306 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 642 | 574 | 128 | 27 | 4 | 8 | 58 | 141 | 5 | 9 | 2 | 223 | 300 | 326 | 626 | 103 | 280 | 22 | 9 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 642 | 550 | 134 | 31 | 3 | 9 | 82 | 119 | 5 | 9 | 2 | 244 | 347 | 360 | 707 | 116 | 293 | 19 | 13 | 322 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA MLE | St. Paul Saints | — | 193 | 168 | 23 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 64 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 137 | 245 | 190 | 435 | 54 | 214 | 33 | 11 | 211 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA RAW | St. Paul Saints | — | 193 | 156 | 28 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 33 | 52 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 179 | 333 | 276 | 609 | 96 | 255 | 27 | 17 | 292 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 29 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 257 | 232 | 44 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 66 | 5 | 11 | 6 | 190 | 260 | 237 | 497 | 47 | 261 | 26 | 7 | 221 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 29 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 257 | 222 | 50 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 27 | 56 | 5 | 11 | 6 | 225 | 323 | 279 | 602 | 54 | 297 | 22 | 11 | 281 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 30 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 335 | 293 | 56 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 28 | 82 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 191 | 271 | 246 | 517 | 55 | 251 | 24 | 8 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 30 | AAA RAW | Round Rock Express | — | 335 | 279 | 64 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 41 | 74 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 229 | 335 | 301 | 636 | 72 | 293 | 22 | 12 | 290 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 417 | 373 | 70 | 13 | 1 | 6 | 35 | 134 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 188 | 267 | 276 | 544 | 88 | 266 | 32 | 8 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 495 | 463 | 110 | 23 | 3 | 9 | 20 | 99 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 238 | 284 | 359 | 643 | 121 | 276 | 20 | 4 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 548 | 501 | 116 | 23 | 2 | 13 | 37 | 133 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 232 | 294 | 363 | 657 | 132 | 279 | 24 | 7 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA MLE | Sugar Land Skeeters | — | 438 | 397 | 77 | 19 | 4 | 4 | 33 | 129 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 194 | 265 | 292 | 557 | 98 | 269 | 29 | 8 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 642 | 574 | 128 | 27 | 4 | 8 | 58 | 141 | 5 | 9 | 2 | 223 | 300 | 326 | 626 | 103 | 274 | 22 | 9 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA MLE | St. Paul Saints | — | 193 | 167 | 23 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 64 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 138 | 245 | 192 | 436 | 54 | 213 | 33 | 11 | 211 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 29 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 257 | 233 | 44 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 66 | 5 | 11 | 6 | 189 | 260 | 236 | 496 | 47 | 252 | 26 | 7 | 221 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 30 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 335 | 300 | 56 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 28 | 82 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 187 | 271 | 240 | 511 | 53 | 244 | 24 | 8 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 29 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 257 | 233 | 44 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 66 | 5 | 11 | 6 | 189 | 260 | 236 | 496 | 47 | 252 | 26 | 7 | 221 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 30 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 335 | 300 | 56 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 28 | 82 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 187 | 271 | 240 | 511 | 53 | 244 | 24 | 8 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB MLE | TEX | 10% | 366 | 329 | 65 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 30 | 87 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 197 | 273 | 271 | 544 | 74 | 256 | 24 | 8 | 252 | 56 | -19 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +8 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB CTX | TEX | 10% | 16 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 197 | 273 | 272 | 545 | 75 | 255 | 25 | 6 | 252 | 56 | -1 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 33 | MLB MLE | TEX | 27% | 179 | 161 | 31 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 44 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 194 | 268 | 264 | 533 | 71 | 253 | 25 | 8 | 246 | 53 | -10 | -0 | -4 | +2 | +4 | -0.9 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB CTX | TEX | 27% | 49 | 44 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 194 | 268 | 265 | 533 | 71 | 253 | 24 | 8 | 247 | 53 | -3 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 49 | 44 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 182 | 265 | 227 | 493 | 45 | 250 | 24 | 8 | 247 | 61 | -3 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 584 | 107 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 53 | 159 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 183 | 266 | 229 | 496 | 46 | 252 | 24 | 8 | 247 | 61 | -36 | +0 | -15 | +7 | +14 | -3.1 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3659 | 3293 | 681 | 138 | 16 | 46 | 276 | 929 | 46 | 55 | 30 | 207 | 277 | 300 | 578 | 94 | 271 | 25 | 8 | 258 | 61 | -18 | +0 | -4 | +4 | +7 | -1.2 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 585 | 121 | 25 | 3 | 8 | 49 | 165 | 8 | 10 | 5 | 207 | 277 | 301 | 578 | 94 | 271 | 25 | 8 | 258 | 61 | -35 | +0 | -8 | +7 | +14 | -2.3 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2025 AAARound Rock Express · 335 PAwOBA .288 → .240 (−48)K% 22.1% → 24.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.09% | ÷1.086 | ×1.200 | — | — | 24.42% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.24% | ÷0.962 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.962 | 8.45% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.19% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.962 | 1.08% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.39% | ÷1.053 | ×0.930 | ×0.969 | ×0.962 | 20.07% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.37% | ÷0.881 | ×0.830 | ×0.969 | ×0.962 | 4.71% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.921 | ×0.970 | ×0.969 | ×0.962 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.46% | ÷0.913 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.962 | 1.08% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 111, 2B 76, 3B 84, K 117, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.969.
Result: wOBA .288 → .240; ISO .072 → .063; BABIP .293 → .244. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 150 PAwOBA .258 → .201 (−57)K% 22.0% → 26.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.00% | ÷1.010 | ×1.220 | — | — | 26.57% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.33% | ÷1.034 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.948 | 7.27% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.67% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.948 | 2.20% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.05% | ÷1.018 | ×0.920 | ×0.992 | ×0.948 | 17.91% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.21% | ÷1.012 | ×0.840 | ×0.992 | ×0.948 | 3.29% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.05% | ÷1.138 | ×0.940 | ×0.992 | ×0.948 | 0.82% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.080 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.948 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 104, 2B 102, 3B 128, K 102, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 24.8 → −5.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.992.
Result: wOBA .258 → .201; ISO .047 → .037; BABIP .263 → .220. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAARound Rock Express · 107 PAwOBA .298 → .249 (−49)K% 21.5% → 24.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.50% | ÷1.069 | ×1.200 | — | — | 24.13% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.35% | ÷1.040 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.972 | 6.02% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.93% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.972 | 0.85% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.58% | ÷0.989 | ×0.930 | ×0.962 | ×0.972 | 26.02% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.23% | ÷0.987 | ×0.830 | ×0.962 | ×0.972 | 3.32% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.962 | ×0.972 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.41% | ÷0.928 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.972 | 1.03% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 98, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 114, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.962.
Result: wOBA .298 → .249; ISO .064 → .050; BABIP .343 → .297. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAASt. Paul Saints · 193 PAwOBA .286 → .211 (−75)K% 26.9% → 33.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.94% | ÷0.973 | ×1.200 | — | — | 33.22% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.10% | ÷1.067 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 10.86% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.55% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 1.43% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.35% | ÷0.964 | ×0.930 | ×1.013 | ×0.982 | 15.69% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.65% | ÷1.341 | ×0.830 | ×1.013 | ×0.982 | 5.33% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.977 | ×0.970 | ×1.013 | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.92% | ÷1.009 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.982 | 1.31% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 93, 2B 168, 3B 95, K 95, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.013.
Result: wOBA .286 → .211; ISO .096 → .062; BABIP .255 → .213. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 577 PAwOBA .325 → .277 (−48)K% 18.0% → 21.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.02% | ÷0.986 | ×1.200 | — | — | 21.93% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.48% | ÷0.953 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 8.96% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.87% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 0.81% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.79% | ÷0.982 | ×0.930 | ×0.991 | ×0.992 | 20.28% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.18% | ÷0.952 | ×0.830 | ×0.991 | ×0.992 | 6.15% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.77% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.991 | ×0.992 | 0.82% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.31% | ÷0.917 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 1.75% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 96, 2B 90, 3B 80, K 97, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.991.
Result: wOBA .325 → .277; ISO .123 → .104; BABIP .301 → .274. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAASugar Land Skeeters · 438 PAwOBA .301 → .246 (−55)K% 24.7% → 29.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.66% | ÷1.002 | ×1.200 | — | — | 29.54% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.50% | ÷0.975 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 7.45% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.14% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 1.08% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.73% | ÷1.023 | ×0.930 | ×0.974 | ×1.003 | 18.40% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.00% | ÷0.923 | ×0.830 | ×0.974 | ×1.003 | 7.02% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.82% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×0.974 | ×1.003 | 1.42% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.82% | ÷0.935 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 1.36% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 105, 2B 85, 3B 130, K 100, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.974.
Result: wOBA .301 → .246; ISO .123 → .099; BABIP .308 → .269. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAARound Rock Express · 548 PAwOBA .345 → .288 (−57)K% 19.2% → 24.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.16% | ÷1.022 | ×1.290 | — | — | 24.19% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.49% | ÷1.030 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.033 | 6.76% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.91% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.033 | 0.92% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.87% | ÷0.966 | ×0.900 | ×0.950 | ×1.033 | 20.92% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.71% | ÷0.995 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×1.033 | 6.16% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.80% | ÷1.126 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×1.033 | 0.56% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.99% | ÷0.948 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.033 | 3.39% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 93, 2B 99, 3B 125, K 104, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .345 → .288; ISO .166 → .136; BABIP .319 → .279. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 387 PAwOBA .336 → .274 (−62)K% 16.8% → 20.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.80% | ÷0.997 | ×1.220 | — | — | 20.55% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.65% | ÷1.036 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 3.18% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.07% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.012 | 1.82% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.53% | ÷1.023 | ×0.920 | ×0.976 | ×1.012 | 20.00% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.17% | ÷1.075 | ×0.840 | ×0.976 | ×1.012 | 5.53% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.02% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | ×0.976 | ×1.012 | 1.06% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.75% | ÷1.059 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 2.87% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 105, 2B 115, 3B 80, K 99, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.976.
Result: wOBA .336 → .274; ISO .168 → .131; BABIP .317 → .272. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .