Paul Janish

PosSS

B/TR/R

Born1982-10-12

Age (2027)44

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

AAALAST SEASON 2017

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2015	32	AAABAL	344	.235/.315/.272	0	2	34	—	.204/.258/.236
2015	32	MLBBAL	36	.286/.286/.371	0	0	78	0.4
2016	33	AAABAL	283	.248/.335/.280	0	1	40	—	.210/.270/.233
2016	33	MLBBAL	35	.194/.286/.226	0	0	53	-0.0
2017	34	AAABAL	258	.256/.346/.350	3	1	59	—	.217/.291/.300
2017	34	MLBBAL	28	.077/.111/.077	0	0	-54	-0.2
2018	35	No MLB games played
2019	36	No MLB games played
2020	37	No MLB games played
2021	38	No MLB games played
2022	39	No MLB games played
2023	40	No MLB games played
2024	41	No MLB games played
2025	42	No MLB games played
2026	43	No MLB games played

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.2

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2005	22	A	Dayton Dragons	—	254	208	51	10	2	5	29	38	5	5	2	245	351	385	736	139	272	15	11	319	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	23	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	16	15	4	1	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	267	312	333	646	67	400	31	6	294	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	23	A+	Sarasota Reds	—	393	335	93	17	2	9	38	39	6	8	2	278	361	421	782	143	286	10	10	340	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	23	A	Dayton Dragons	—	108	98	39	6	0	5	7	10	1	0	0	398	443	612	1.056	214	400	9	6	454	135	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	24	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	227	199	44	8	1	3	14	31	2	2	0	221	279	317	596	95	247	14	6	257	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	24	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	391	324	79	21	2	1	50	54	9	10	3	244	360	330	691	86	287	14	13	316	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	25	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	89	80	15	2	0	1	7	18	2	0	0	188	270	250	520	62	230	20	8	246	52	-5	+0	-0	+5	+2	0.1
2008	25	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	365	318	80	20	1	7	26	71	9	2	0	252	326	387	713	135	302	19	7	311	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	26	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	292	256	54	21	0	1	26	40	5	2	0	211	296	305	601	94	247	14	9	273	70	-11	+0	+14	+3	+6	1.4
2010	27	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	228	200	52	10	0	5	22	30	2	1	3	260	339	385	724	125	283	13	10	323	97	-1	-1	+3	+2	+5	0.9
2011	28	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	366	336	72	14	1	0	18	46	4	3	2	214	263	262	524	48	244	13	5	237	45	-24	-0	+8	+4	+8	-0.4
2011	28	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	53	43	11	2	0	1	7	4	2	1	0	256	385	372	757	116	256	8	13	344	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	29	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	186	167	31	6	1	0	17	30	2	1	0	186	269	234	502	48	226	16	9	239	46	-12	+0	+3	+4	+4	-0.0
2012	29	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	194	169	40	12	1	4	20	26	4	0	1	237	332	391	722	154	259	13	10	325	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	30	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	45	41	7	2	0	0	3	11	0	0	0	171	227	220	447	49	226	24	7	204	22	-4	+0	+1	+1	+1	-0.1
2013	30	AAA	Gwinnett Braves	—	152	135	28	5	0	0	13	32	2	0	0	207	287	244	531	37	269	21	9	249	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	31	AAA	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	398	362	97	20	2	3	28	53	2	1	5	268	324	359	683	91	306	13	7	305	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	32	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	36	35	10	3	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	286	286	371	657	86	303	8	0	283	78	-1	+0	+0	+4	+1	0.4
2015	32	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	344	302	71	7	2	0	31	41	4	2	1	235	315	272	586	36	270	12	9	270	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	33	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	35	31	6	1	0	0	3	3	1	0	0	194	286	226	512	32	214	9	9	247	53	-2	+0	-0	+1	+1	-0.0
2016	33	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	283	246	61	8	0	0	28	33	4	1	3	248	335	280	615	33	285	12	10	285	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	34	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	28	26	2	0	0	0	1	6	0	0	0	77	111	77	188		100	21	4	90	-54	-5	+0	-0	+3	+1	-0.2
2017	34	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	258	223	57	10	1	3	24	37	7	1	0	256	346	350	696	94	292	14	9	316	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1305	1172	249	59	2	7	97	187	16	7	5	212	282	284	566	72	245	14	7	258	61	-61	-1	+29	+28	+28	2.4
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2005	22	A MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	254	218	48	9	2	4	19	52	5	5	2	220	298	335	632	115	243	20	7	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	23	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	16	15	4	1	0	0	1	6	0	0	0	267	312	333	646	67	371	38	6	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	23	A+ MLE	Sarasota Reds	—	393	345	89	17	2	8	28	55	6	8	2	258	325	388	713	130	264	14	7	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	23	A MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	108	100	33	5	0	4	5	14	1	0	0	330	368	500	868	170	333	13	5	367	135	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	24	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	227	204	44	7	1	3	9	37	2	2	0	216	256	304	560	88	231	16	4	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	24	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	391	340	76	20	2	1	34	66	9	10	3	224	311	303	614	79	264	17	9	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	25	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	89	80	15	2	0	1	7	18	2	0	0	188	270	250	520	62	230	20	8	246	52	-5	+0	-0	+5	+2	0.1
2008	25	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	365	328	74	17	1	6	16	85	9	2	0	226	280	338	619	113	272	23	4	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	26	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	292	257	54	21	0	1	25	40	5	2	0	210	293	304	596	93	247	14	9	271	70	-11	+0	+14	+3	+6	1.4
2010	27	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	228	202	52	10	0	5	20	30	2	1	3	257	330	381	712	124	283	13	9	312	97	-1	-1	+3	+2	+5	0.9
2011	28	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	366	337	72	14	1	0	17	46	4	3	2	214	260	261	521	47	244	13	5	234	45	-24	-0	+8	+4	+8	-0.4
2011	28	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	53	46	11	2	0	1	4	5	2	1	0	239	327	348	675	109	224	9	8	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	29	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	186	167	31	6	1	0	17	30	2	1	0	186	269	234	502	48	226	16	9	236	46	-12	+0	+3	+4	+4	-0.0
2012	29	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	194	176	34	10	1	3	13	32	4	0	1	193	264	312	577	119	219	16	7	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	30	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	45	41	7	2	0	0	3	11	0	0	0	171	227	220	447	49	226	24	7	201	22	-4	+0	+1	+1	+1	-0.1
2013	30	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Braves	—	152	139	24	4	0	0	9	40	2	0	0	173	233	201	435	29	232	26	6	198	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	31	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	398	373	77	15	2	2	17	72	2	1	5	206	245	273	518	67	244	18	4	227	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	32	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	36	35	10	3	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	286	286	371	657	86	303	8	0	283	78	-1	+0	+0	+4	+1	0.4
2015	32	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	344	314	64	6	2	0	19	51	4	2	1	204	258	236	494	32	234	15	6	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	33	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	35	31	6	1	0	0	3	3	1	0	0	194	286	226	512	32	214	9	9	246	53	-2	+0	-0	+1	+1	-0.0
2016	33	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	283	257	54	6	0	0	17	40	4	1	3	210	270	233	503	23	242	14	6	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	34	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	28	26	2	0	0	0	1	6	0	0	0	77	111	77	188		100	21	4	89	-54	-5	+0	-0	+3	+1	-0.2
2017	34	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	258	230	50	8	1	3	17	45	7	1	0	217	291	300	591	83	243	17	7	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	22	A MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	254	218	48	9	2	4	19	52	5	5	2	220	298	335	632	115	265	20	7	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	22	A RAW	Dayton Dragons	—	254	208	51	10	2	5	29	38	5	5	2	245	351	385	736	139	272	15	11	319	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	23	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	517	460	124	22	2	12	34	75	7	8	2	270	329	404	734	135	293	15	7	315	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	23	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	517	448	136	24	2	14	46	54	7	8	2	304	377	460	837	156	314	10	9	362	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	618	544	120	27	3	4	43	103	11	12	3	221	291	303	594	83	263	17	7	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	24	AA RAW	2 teams	—	618	523	123	29	3	4	64	85	11	12	3	235	331	325	656	90	272	14	10	294	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	454	408	89	19	1	7	23	103	11	2	0	218	278	321	599	103	273	23	5	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	25	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	454	398	95	22	1	8	33	89	11	2	0	239	314	359	674	121	287	20	7	299	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	26	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	292	257	54	21	0	1	25	40	5	2	0	210	293	304	596	93	245	14	9	271	70	-11	+0	+14	+3	+6	1.4
2009	26	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	—	292	256	54	21	0	1	26	40	5	2	0	211	296	305	601	94	247	14	9	273	70	-11	+0	+14	+3	+6	1.4
2010	27	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	228	202	52	10	0	5	20	30	2	1	3	257	330	381	712	124	280	13	9	312	97	-1	-1	+3	+2	+5	0.9
2010	27	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	—	228	200	52	10	0	5	22	30	2	1	3	260	339	385	724	125	283	13	10	323	97	-1	-1	+3	+2	+5	0.9
2011	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	419	383	82	16	1	1	21	51	6	4	2	214	266	269	535	55	240	12	5	241	50	-25	+0	+8	+4	+9	-0.4
2011	28	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	419	379	83	16	1	1	25	50	6	4	2	219	278	274	552	55	246	12	6	250	50	-25	+0	+8	+4	+9	-0.4
2012	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	380	343	65	16	2	3	30	62	6	1	1	190	266	274	541	85	223	16	8	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	29	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	380	336	71	18	2	4	37	56	6	1	1	211	301	312	613	101	243	15	10	283	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	197	180	31	6	0	0	12	51	2	0	0	172	232	206	438	33	237	26	6	199	21	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	30	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	197	176	35	7	0	0	16	43	2	0	0	199	273	239	512	40	259	22	8	238	21	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	31	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	398	373	77	15	2	2	17	72	2	1	5	206	245	273	518	67	250	18	4	227	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	31	AAA RAW	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	398	362	97	20	2	3	28	53	2	1	5	268	324	359	683	91	306	13	7	305	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	32	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	380	349	74	9	2	0	19	54	4	2	1	212	261	249	510	37	248	14	5	225	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	32	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	380	337	81	10	2	0	31	44	4	2	1	240	312	282	594	42	274	12	8	271	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	33	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	318	288	60	7	0	0	20	43	5	1	3	208	272	233	504	24	244	14	6	230	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	33	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	318	277	67	9	0	0	31	36	5	1	3	242	329	274	603	32	277	11	10	281	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	34	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	286	256	52	8	1	3	18	51	7	1	0	203	274	277	551	74	240	18	6	240	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	34	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	286	249	59	10	1	3	25	43	7	1	0	237	324	321	645	84	273	15	9	294	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	22	A MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	254	228	48	9	2	4	19	52	5	5	2	211	298	320	618	110	243	20	7	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	23	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	517	471	124	22	2	12	34	75	7	8	2	263	329	395	724	132	282	15	7	315	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	618	559	120	27	3	4	43	103	11	12	3	215	291	295	586	81	252	17	7	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	454	417	89	19	1	7	23	103	11	2	0	213	278	314	592	101	264	23	5	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	26	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	292	260	54	21	0	1	25	40	5	2	0	208	293	300	593	92	247	14	9	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	27	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	228	204	52	10	0	5	20	30	2	1	3	255	330	377	708	123	283	13	9	312	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	419	389	82	16	1	1	21	51	6	4	2	211	266	265	531	54	242	12	5	241	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	380	341	65	16	2	3	30	62	6	1	1	191	266	276	542	85	223	16	8	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	197	181	31	6	0	0	12	51	2	0	0	171	232	204	436	33	231	26	6	199	21	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	31	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	398	376	77	15	2	2	17	72	2	1	5	205	245	271	516	66	244	18	4	227	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	32	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	380	354	74	9	2	0	19	54	4	2	1	209	261	246	507	37	241	14	5	225	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	33	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	318	290	60	7	0	0	20	43	5	1	3	207	272	231	503	24	239	14	6	230	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	34	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	286	259	52	8	1	3	18	51	7	1	0	201	274	274	548	73	229	18	6	240	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1305	1172	249	59	2	7	97	187	16	7	5	212	282	284	566	72	245	14	7	258	59	-61	-1	+29	+28	+28	2.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	584	123	29	1	3	48	93	8	3	2	211	280	279	559	68	244	14	7	258	59	-30	-0	+14	+14	+14	1.2
Career	—	MLE		—	4741	4261	928	185	16	42	301	787	73	40	22	218	281	298	579	80	256	17	6	256	59	-61	-1	+29	+28	+28	2.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	584	127	25	2	6	41	108	10	5	3	217	280	298	578	80	255	17	6	256	59	-30	-0	+14	+14	+14	1.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2017 AAANorfolk Tides · 258 PAwOBA .310 → .256 (−55)K% 14.3% → 17.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.34%	÷0.995	×1.200	—	—	17.30%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.30%	÷0.948	×0.690	—	×0.940	6.36%
HBP% /PA	2.71%	—	×0.940	—	×0.940	2.40%
Singles /BIP	23.12%	÷0.989	×0.930	×0.968	×0.940	19.77%
Doubles /BIP	5.38%	÷1.001	×0.830	×0.968	×0.940	4.06%
Triples /BIP	0.54%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.968	×0.940	0.41%
Home runs /BIP	1.61%	÷0.866	×0.840	—	×0.940	1.47%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 73, 1B 98, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 99, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 35 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (7.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.968.

Result: wOBA .310 → .256; ISO .094 → .079; BABIP .292 → .243. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAANorfolk Tides · 283 PAwOBA .279 → .228 (−51)K% 11.7% → 14.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	11.66%	÷0.983	×1.200	—	—	14.23%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.89%	÷1.046	×0.690	—	×0.940	6.14%
HBP% /PA	1.41%	—	×0.940	—	×0.940	1.25%
Singles /BIP	24.88%	÷1.027	×0.930	×1.012	×0.940	21.44%
Doubles /BIP	3.76%	÷1.021	×0.830	×1.012	×0.940	2.90%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	×1.012	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.776	×0.840	—	×0.940	0.00%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 55, 1B 105, 2B 104, 3B 130, K 97, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 34 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.012.

Result: wOBA .279 → .228; ISO .033 → .026; BABIP .285 → .242. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAANorfolk Tides · 344 PAwOBA .265 → .219 (−46)K% 11.9% → 14.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	11.92%	÷0.961	×1.200	—	—	14.88%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.01%	÷1.060	×0.690	—	×0.942	5.53%
HBP% /PA	1.16%	—	×0.940	—	×0.942	1.03%
Singles /BIP	23.75%	÷0.989	×0.930	×0.989	×0.942	20.80%
Doubles /BIP	2.68%	÷0.979	×0.830	×0.989	×0.942	2.12%
Triples /BIP	0.77%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.989	×0.942	0.60%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.097	×0.840	—	×0.942	0.00%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 119, 1B 98, 2B 96, 3B 130, K 92, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 33 vs a level average of 27.2 → −5.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.989.

Result: wOBA .265 → .219; ISO .036 → .030; BABIP .270 → .234. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2014 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 398 PAwOBA .298 → .227 (−71)K% 13.3% → 18.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.32%	÷0.945	×1.290	—	—	18.17%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.04%	÷1.096	×0.710	—	×0.952	4.34%
HBP% /PA	0.50%	—	×0.980	—	×0.952	0.47%
Singles /BIP	23.30%	÷1.027	×0.900	×0.967	×0.952	18.80%
Doubles /BIP	6.47%	÷0.969	×0.810	×0.967	×0.952	4.98%
Triples /BIP	0.65%	÷0.900	×0.810	×0.967	×0.952	0.54%
Home runs /BIP	0.97%	÷0.998	×0.780	—	×0.952	0.72%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 105, 2B 94, 3B 80, K 89, BB 119 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.967.

Result: wOBA .298 → .227; ISO .091 → .070; BABIP .306 → .244. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2013 AAAGwinnett Braves · 152 PAwOBA .244 → .198 (−47)K% 21.1% → 26.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.05%	÷0.971	×1.200	—	—	26.01%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.55%	÷0.991	×0.690	—	×0.962	5.73%
HBP% /PA	1.32%	—	×0.940	—	×0.962	1.19%
Singles /BIP	22.33%	÷1.038	×0.930	×1.008	×0.962	19.39%
Doubles /BIP	4.85%	÷0.964	×0.830	×1.008	×0.962	4.05%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.047	×0.970	×1.008	×0.962	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.949	×0.840	—	×0.962	0.00%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 108, 2B 93, 3B 109, K 94, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.008.

Result: wOBA .244 → .198; ISO .037 → .031; BABIP .269 → .232. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2012 AAALouisville Bats · 194 PAwOBA .317 → .255 (−62)K% 13.4% → 16.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.40%	÷0.967	×1.200	—	—	16.63%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.31%	÷1.034	×0.690	—	×0.972	6.69%
HBP% /PA	2.06%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	1.88%
Singles /BIP	16.08%	÷1.046	×0.930	×1.003	×0.972	13.95%
Doubles /BIP	8.39%	÷1.002	×0.830	×1.003	×0.972	6.78%
Triples /BIP	0.70%	÷0.900	×0.970	×1.003	×0.972	0.74%
Home runs /BIP	2.80%	÷1.087	×0.840	—	×0.972	2.10%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 109, 2B 100, 3B 80, K 93, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.003.

Result: wOBA .317 → .255; ISO .154 → .125; BABIP .259 → .219. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2011 AAALouisville Bats · 53 PAwOBA .342 → .292 (−51)K% 7.5% → 9.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	7.55%	÷0.966	×1.200	—	—	9.37%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.21%	÷1.070	×0.690	—	×0.982	8.36%
HBP% /PA	3.77%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	3.48%
Singles /BIP	20.51%	÷1.033	×0.930	—	×0.982	18.13%
Doubles /BIP	5.13%	÷0.972	×0.830	—	×0.982	4.30%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.924	×0.970	—	×0.982	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.56%	÷0.944	×0.840	—	×0.982	2.24%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 107, 2B 94, 3B 85, K 93, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .342 → .292; ISO .116 → .107; BABIP .256 → .224. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2008 AAALouisville Bats · 365 PAwOBA .302 → .268 (−33)K% 19.5% → 23.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.45%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	23.34%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.30%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.018	4.43%
HBP% /PA	2.47%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	2.36%
Singles /BIP	21.05%	÷1.000	×0.930	×0.983	×1.018	19.60%
Doubles /BIP	8.10%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.983	×1.018	6.73%
Triples /BIP	0.40%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.983	×1.018	0.39%
Home runs /BIP	2.83%	÷1.000	×0.840	—	×1.018	2.42%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.983.

Result: wOBA .302 → .268; ISO .135 → .119; BABIP .302 → .272. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).