Seth Beer
1B Reading Fightin Phils| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 26 | AAA/AAARI | 438 | .273/.369/.451 | 15 | 0 | 63 | — | .200/.281/.298 |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA/AAPIT | 405 | .277/.356/.431 | 12 | 1 | 76 | — | .228/.293/.345 |
| 2025 | 28 | AAPHI | 120 | .190/.286/.314 | 3 | 0 | 31 | — | .157/.235/.241 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 30 | MLBPHI | 2 | .233/.295/.366 | 0 | 0 | 84 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ23% MLB | 31 | MLBPHI | 26 | .229/.290/.358 | 1 | 0 | 81 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractPOW 40
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 21 | A+ | Buies Creek Astros | — | 114 | 107 | 28 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 22 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 262 | 307 | 439 | 746 | 178 | 287 | 19 | 4 | 331 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 132 | 112 | 39 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 17 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 348 | 439 | 491 | 930 | 143 | 391 | 13 | 11 | 416 | 120 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | AA | Jackson Generals | — | 381 | 322 | 88 | 16 | 0 | 17 | 32 | 83 | 24 | 0 | 1 | 273 | 381 | 481 | 862 | 208 | 316 | 22 | 8 | 382 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 152 | 128 | 42 | 8 | 0 | 9 | 14 | 30 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 328 | 423 | 602 | 1.024 | 273 | 359 | 20 | 9 | 438 | 121 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | INTL | Salt River Rafters | — | 80 | 73 | 23 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 315 | 375 | 452 | 827 | 137 | 379 | 18 | 6 | 369 | 136 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AAA | Reno Aces | — | 435 | 362 | 104 | 33 | 0 | 16 | 39 | 76 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 287 | 401 | 511 | 912 | 224 | 321 | 17 | 9 | 402 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | — | 126 | 111 | 21 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 31 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 189 | 280 | 243 | 523 | 54 | 250 | 25 | 9 | 248 | 48 | -8 | +0 | -1 | -9 | +3 | -1.6 |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA | Reno Aces | — | 402 | 331 | 80 | 20 | 1 | 14 | 44 | 68 | 21 | 0 | 1 | 242 | 366 | 435 | 801 | 193 | 259 | 17 | 11 | 356 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA | Reno Aces | — | 79 | 70 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 23 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 273 | 314 | 587 | 114 | 255 | 29 | 8 | 262 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 359 | 307 | 89 | 20 | 0 | 13 | 34 | 81 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 290 | 389 | 482 | 871 | 192 | 353 | 23 | 9 | 387 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | — | 177 | 158 | 43 | 8 | 0 | 8 | 13 | 38 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 272 | 343 | 475 | 818 | 203 | 307 | 21 | 7 | 358 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AA | Altoona Curve | — | 228 | 199 | 56 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 48 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 281 | 366 | 397 | 763 | 116 | 351 | 21 | 8 | 345 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 120 | 105 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 27 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 190 | 286 | 314 | 600 | 124 | 224 | 22 | 9 | 275 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 126 | 111 | 21 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 31 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 189 | 280 | 243 | 523 | 54 | 250 | 25 | 9 | 248 | 54 | -7 | +0 | -1 | -9 | +3 | -1.5 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 21 | A+ MLE | Buies Creek Astros | — | 114 | 108 | 22 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 32 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 204 | 246 | 343 | 588 | 139 | 255 | 28 | 3 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A MLE | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 132 | 117 | 35 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 24 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 299 | 379 | 402 | 780 | 103 | 358 | 18 | 8 | 345 | 120 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | AA MLE | Jackson Generals | — | 381 | 336 | 79 | 13 | 0 | 15 | 18 | 99 | 24 | 0 | 1 | 235 | 320 | 408 | 728 | 173 | 275 | 26 | 5 | 317 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ MLE | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 152 | 133 | 35 | 6 | 0 | 8 | 9 | 43 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 263 | 342 | 489 | 831 | 226 | 297 | 28 | 6 | 347 | 121 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AAA MLE | Reno Aces | — | 435 | 373 | 85 | 25 | 0 | 12 | 28 | 92 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 228 | 332 | 391 | 723 | 164 | 262 | 21 | 6 | 320 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MLB MLE | Arizona Diamondbacks | — | 126 | 112 | 21 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 31 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 188 | 272 | 241 | 513 | 54 | 250 | 25 | 8 | 239 | 48 | -8 | +0 | -1 | -9 | +3 | -1.6 |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA MLE | Reno Aces | — | 402 | 345 | 74 | 18 | 1 | 11 | 30 | 81 | 21 | 0 | 1 | 214 | 316 | 368 | 684 | 154 | 234 | 20 | 7 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA MLE | Reno Aces | — | 79 | 72 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 29 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 167 | 221 | 236 | 457 | 69 | 222 | 37 | 5 | 201 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA MLE | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 359 | 318 | 66 | 15 | 0 | 6 | 23 | 98 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 208 | 294 | 311 | 605 | 104 | 277 | 27 | 6 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA MLE | Indianapolis Indians | — | 177 | 162 | 35 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 48 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 216 | 274 | 364 | 638 | 148 | 260 | 27 | 5 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AA MLE | Altoona Curve | — | 228 | 206 | 49 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 61 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 238 | 308 | 330 | 638 | 92 | 316 | 27 | 5 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AA MLE | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 120 | 108 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 32 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 157 | 235 | 241 | 476 | 83 | 195 | 27 | 7 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 246 | 226 | 59 | 9 | 0 | 7 | 13 | 56 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 261 | 321 | 394 | 715 | 133 | 319 | 23 | 5 | 306 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 246 | 219 | 67 | 11 | 0 | 8 | 19 | 39 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 306 | 378 | 466 | 844 | 160 | 343 | 16 | 8 | 376 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 613 | 543 | 130 | 22 | 0 | 26 | 31 | 163 | 33 | 1 | 4 | 239 | 320 | 424 | 743 | 184 | 289 | 27 | 5 | 326 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 613 | 523 | 153 | 29 | 1 | 27 | 51 | 127 | 33 | 1 | 4 | 293 | 390 | 507 | 897 | 214 | 336 | 21 | 8 | 394 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AAA MLE | Reno Aces | — | 435 | 373 | 85 | 25 | 0 | 12 | 28 | 92 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 228 | 332 | 391 | 723 | 164 | 267 | 21 | 6 | 320 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AAA RAW | Reno Aces | — | 435 | 362 | 104 | 33 | 0 | 16 | 39 | 76 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 287 | 401 | 511 | 912 | 224 | 321 | 17 | 9 | 402 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 528 | 457 | 94 | 20 | 1 | 12 | 40 | 112 | 24 | 0 | 1 | 206 | 303 | 333 | 636 | 127 | 241 | 21 | 8 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 528 | 442 | 101 | 23 | 1 | 15 | 55 | 99 | 24 | 0 | 1 | 229 | 345 | 387 | 732 | 158 | 257 | 19 | 10 | 330 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 438 | 390 | 78 | 17 | 0 | 7 | 27 | 127 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 281 | 297 | 579 | 97 | 273 | 29 | 6 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 438 | 377 | 103 | 22 | 0 | 15 | 40 | 104 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 273 | 369 | 451 | 820 | 178 | 336 | 24 | 9 | 364 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 405 | 368 | 85 | 12 | 2 | 9 | 21 | 109 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 231 | 296 | 348 | 644 | 117 | 300 | 27 | 5 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 405 | 357 | 99 | 15 | 2 | 12 | 31 | 86 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 277 | 356 | 431 | 787 | 154 | 332 | 21 | 8 | 351 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AA MLE | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 120 | 108 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 32 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 157 | 235 | 241 | 476 | 83 | 200 | 27 | 7 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AA RAW | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 120 | 105 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 27 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 190 | 286 | 314 | 600 | 124 | 224 | 22 | 9 | 275 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 246 | 224 | 59 | 9 | 0 | 7 | 13 | 56 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 263 | 321 | 397 | 718 | 134 | 310 | 23 | 5 | 306 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 613 | 544 | 130 | 22 | 0 | 26 | 31 | 163 | 33 | 1 | 4 | 239 | 320 | 423 | 742 | 184 | 281 | 27 | 5 | 326 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AAA MLE | Reno Aces | — | 435 | 374 | 85 | 25 | 0 | 12 | 28 | 92 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 227 | 332 | 390 | 722 | 163 | 262 | 21 | 6 | 320 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 528 | 459 | 94 | 20 | 1 | 12 | 40 | 112 | 24 | 0 | 1 | 205 | 303 | 331 | 634 | 126 | 238 | 21 | 8 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 438 | 391 | 78 | 17 | 0 | 7 | 27 | 127 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 199 | 281 | 297 | 578 | 97 | 267 | 29 | 6 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 405 | 368 | 85 | 12 | 2 | 9 | 21 | 109 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 231 | 296 | 348 | 644 | 117 | 292 | 27 | 5 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AA MLE | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 120 | 108 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 32 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 157 | 235 | 241 | 476 | 83 | 195 | 27 | 7 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 405 | 368 | 85 | 12 | 2 | 9 | 21 | 109 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 231 | 296 | 348 | 644 | 117 | 292 | 27 | 5 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AA MLE | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 120 | 108 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 32 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 157 | 235 | 241 | 476 | 83 | 195 | 27 | 7 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB MLE | PHI | 2% | 200 | 182 | 43 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 50 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 231 | 293 | 360 | 653 | 129 | 291 | 25 | 6 | 293 | 84 | -4 | +0 | -0 | -4 | +4 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB CTX | PHI | 2% | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 233 | 295 | 366 | 661 | 133 | 292 | 50 | 0 | 295 | 84 | -0 | +0 | -0 | -0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 31 | MLB MLE | PHI | 23% | 115 | 105 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 29 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 227 | 289 | 352 | 641 | 125 | 287 | 25 | 6 | 287 | 81 | -3 | +0 | -3 | -2 | +2 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB CTX | PHI | 23% | 26 | 24 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 229 | 290 | 358 | 648 | 129 | 288 | 27 | 8 | 290 | 81 | -1 | +0 | -1 | -0 | +1 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 152 | 135 | 27 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 38 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 285 | 274 | 559 | 74 | 260 | 25 | 9 | 255 | 85 | -8 | +0 | -1 | -10 | +3 | -1.6 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 577 | 116 | 17 | 0 | 9 | 56 | 162 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 201 | 286 | 277 | 564 | 76 | 261 | 25 | 9 | 255 | 85 | -32 | +0 | -6 | -42 | +14 | -6.8 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3024 | 2683 | 598 | 117 | 4 | 81 | 183 | 751 | 131 | 6 | 6 | 223 | 304 | 360 | 664 | 137 | 275 | 25 | 6 | 294 | 85 | -12 | +1 | -4 | -14 | +8 | -2.1 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 577 | 128 | 25 | 1 | 17 | 39 | 161 | 28 | 1 | 1 | 222 | 303 | 357 | 660 | 135 | 274 | 25 | 6 | 294 | 85 | -21 | +1 | -7 | -24 | +14 | -3.8 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2025 AAReading Fightin Phils · 120 PAwOBA .270 → .214 (−56)K% 22.5% → 27.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.50% | ÷1.016 | ×1.220 | — | — | 27.01% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.17% | ÷0.982 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.958 | 6.26% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.50% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.958 | 2.04% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.67% | ÷0.968 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×0.958 | 15.20% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.13% | ÷1.004 | ×0.860 | ×0.950 | ×0.958 | 4.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.959 | ×0.950 | ×0.950 | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.85% | ÷1.036 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.958 | 2.77% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 94, 2B 101, 3B 92, K 103, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 24.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .270 → .214; ISO .124 → .091; BABIP .224 → .195. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAAltoona Curve · 228 PAwOBA .338 → .282 (−55)K% 21.1% → 26.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.05% | ÷0.959 | ×1.220 | — | — | 26.77% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.89% | ÷1.022 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.968 | 5.23% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.95% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.968 | 3.25% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.48% | ÷1.018 | ×0.970 | ×0.988 | ×0.968 | 25.96% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.64% | ÷0.948 | ×0.860 | ×0.988 | ×0.968 | 4.02% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.32% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | ×0.968 | 1.05% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.65% | ÷0.844 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.968 | 2.37% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 69, 1B 104, 2B 90, 3B 130, K 92, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.988.
Result: wOBA .338 → .282; ISO .116 → .098; BABIP .351 → .316. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 177 PAwOBA .352 → .278 (−74)K% 21.5% → 27.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.47% | ÷0.948 | ×1.200 | — | — | 27.19% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.34% | ÷0.977 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 5.15% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.26% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 2.11% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.50% | ÷1.009 | ×0.930 | ×0.974 | ×0.992 | 20.05% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.67% | ÷1.050 | ×0.830 | ×0.974 | ×0.992 | 5.09% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.974 | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.67% | ÷0.909 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 5.09% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 102, 2B 110, 3B 130, K 90, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.974.
Result: wOBA .352 → .278; ISO .203 → .150; BABIP .307 → .260. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 359 PAwOBA .376 → .275 (−101)K% 22.6% → 27.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.56% | ÷1.003 | ×1.220 | — | — | 27.45% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.64% | ÷0.922 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 6.41% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.46% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.978 | 3.79% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.78% | ÷1.054 | ×0.920 | ×0.959 | ×0.978 | 20.30% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.85% | ÷1.008 | ×0.840 | ×0.959 | ×0.978 | 6.92% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.124 | ×0.940 | ×0.959 | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.75% | ÷1.637 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 2.75% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 227, 1B 111, 2B 102, 3B 125, K 101, BB 84 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.959.
Result: wOBA .376 → .275; ISO .192 → .111; BABIP .353 → .277. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAAReno Aces · 79 PAwOBA .262 → .201 (−61)K% 29.1% → 36.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.11% | ÷0.951 | ×1.200 | — | — | 36.73% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.59% | ÷1.096 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 4.79% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.27% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 1.19% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.28% | ÷1.026 | ×0.930 | ×0.993 | ×1.003 | 19.21% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.26% | ÷1.059 | ×0.830 | ×0.993 | ×1.003 | 3.32% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.993 | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.26% | ÷1.012 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 2.95% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 105, 2B 112, 3B 130, K 90, BB 119 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.993.
Result: wOBA .262 → .201; ISO .114 → .079; BABIP .255 → .222. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAAReno Aces · 402 PAwOBA .352 → .300 (−52)K% 16.9% → 20.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.92% | ÷1.004 | ×1.200 | — | — | 20.21% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.70% | ÷1.020 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 7.37% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.22% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 5.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.11% | ÷1.025 | ×0.930 | ×1.019 | ×1.018 | 16.11% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.60% | ÷0.996 | ×0.830 | ×1.019 | ×1.018 | 6.57% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.38% | ÷1.100 | ×0.970 | ×1.019 | ×1.018 | 0.35% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.32% | ÷0.965 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 3.93% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 105, 2B 99, 3B 120, K 101, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.019.
Result: wOBA .352 → .300; ISO .193 → .156; BABIP .259 → .234. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAAReno Aces · 435 PAwOBA .394 → .320 (−74)K% 17.5% → 21.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.47% | ÷0.991 | ×1.200 | — | — | 21.15% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.74% | ÷0.963 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 6.46% |
| HBP% /PA | 6.90% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 6.70% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.23% | ÷1.047 | ×0.930 | ×0.957 | ×1.033 | 16.87% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.54% | ÷1.096 | ×0.830 | ×0.957 | ×1.033 | 8.63% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.113 | ×0.920 | ×0.957 | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.59% | ÷0.958 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 4.22% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 109, 2B 119, 3B 123, K 98, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.957.
Result: wOBA .394 → .320; ISO .224 → .168; BABIP .321 → .262. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAJackson Generals · 381 PAwOBA .370 → .317 (−53)K% 21.8% → 25.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.78% | ÷1.028 | ×1.220 | — | — | 25.86% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.82% | ÷1.001 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.027 | 4.76% |
| HBP% /PA | 6.30% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.027 | 5.43% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.01% | ÷0.996 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 20.74% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.69% | ÷1.099 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 5.41% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.880 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.11% | ÷0.966 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 6.05% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 99, 2B 120, 3B 80, K 106, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .370 → .317; ISO .208 → .178; BABIP .316 → .275. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).