Seth Beer — OGILVIE

Seth Beer1B Reading Fightin Phils

Age 29 L/R 6'2" / 225 lbs AA HR +14% Svc 4.000 · Ctrl thru 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 200 proj PA

wRC+†79

AVG/OBP/SLG.222 / .288 / .337

PA16

HR0

K%27

BB%6

ISO116

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2021-2022

CONTACT40

Whiff%

3712.5%

xAVG

200.226

POWER40

Barrel%

133.4

Avg EV

1186.1

EYE48

Chase%

3734.2%

SPEED27

Sprint

1024.7

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2022

Service 4.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Arb-2	$0.0M	—	—	—
2027	Arb-3	$0.7M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.7M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2018	21	A+	Buies Creek Astros	—	114	107	28	4	0	5	4	22	3	0	1	262	307	439	746	178	287	19	4	331	110	+1	-0	—	—	+2	0.4
2018	21	A	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	132	112	39	7	0	3	15	17	4	1	0	348	439	491	930	143	391	13	11	416	167	+11	+0	—	—	+3	1.4
2019	22	AA	Jackson Generals	—	381	322	88	16	0	17	32	83	24	0	1	273	381	481	862	208	316	22	8	382	145	+20	-0	—	—	+8	2.9
2019	22	A+	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	152	128	42	8	0	9	14	30	7	0	3	328	423	602	1.024	273	359	20	9	438	182	+15	-1	—	—	+3	1.7
2019	22	INTL	Salt River Rafters	—	80	73	23	5	1	1	5	14	2	1	0	315	375	452	827	137	379	18	6	369	136	+3	+0	—	—	+2	0.5
2021	24	AAA	Reno Aces	—	435	362	104	33	0	16	39	76	30	0	0	287	401	511	912	224	321	17	9	402	158	+30	+0	—	—	+9	4.0
2022	25	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	126	111	21	3	0	1	11	31	3	0	0	189	280	243	523	54	250	25	9	248	54	-7	+0	-1	-9	+3	-1.5
2022	25	AAA	Reno Aces	—	402	331	80	20	1	14	44	68	21	0	1	242	366	435	801	193	259	17	11	356	127	+13	-0	—	—	+9	2.2
2023	26	AAA	Reno Aces	—	79	70	14	2	0	2	6	23	1	0	0	200	273	314	587	114	255	29	8	262	63	-3	+0	—	—	+2	-0.2
2023	26	AA	Amarillo Sod Poodles	—	359	307	89	20	0	13	34	81	16	0	0	290	389	482	871	192	353	23	9	387	148	+20	+0	—	—	+8	2.9
2024	27	AAA	Indianapolis Indians	—	177	158	43	8	0	8	13	38	4	0	0	272	343	475	818	203	307	21	7	358	128	+6	+0	—	—	+4	1.0
2024	27	AA	Altoona Curve	—	228	199	56	7	2	4	18	48	9	1	0	281	366	397	763	116	351	21	8	345	120	+5	+0	—	—	+5	1.1
2025	28	AA	Reading Fightin Phils	—	120	105	20	4	0	3	11	27	3	0	0	190	286	314	600	124	224	22	9	275	72	-4	+0	—	—	+3	-0.1
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	126	111	21	3	0	1	11	31	3	0	0	189	280	243	523	54	250	25	9	248	54	-7	+0	-1	-9	+3	-1.5
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2018	21	A+ MLE	Buies Creek Astros	—	114	108	22	3	0	4	3	32	3	0	1	204	246	343	588	139	252	28	3	258	61	-5	-0	—	—	+2	-0.3
2018	21	A MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	132	117	35	6	0	2	11	24	4	1	0	299	379	402	780	103	358	18	8	345	120	+3	+0	—	—	+3	0.6
2019	22	AA MLE	Jackson Generals	—	381	336	76	12	0	14	18	99	24	0	1	226	312	387	699	161	269	26	5	309	95	-2	-0	—	—	+8	0.6
2019	22	A+ MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	152	133	35	6	0	8	9	43	7	0	3	263	342	489	831	226	297	28	6	348	122	+4	-1	—	—	+3	0.6
2021	24	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	435	374	83	24	0	12	27	92	30	0	0	222	325	382	707	160	254	21	6	312	97	-1	+0	—	—	+9	0.8
2022	25	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	126	111	21	3	0	1	11	31	3	0	0	189	280	243	523	54	250	25	9	238	47	-8	+0	-1	-9	+3	-1.6
2022	25	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	402	345	69	17	1	11	30	87	21	0	1	200	303	351	654	151	224	22	7	293	84	-7	-0	—	—	+9	0.1
2023	26	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	79	72	10	1	0	1	4	31	1	0	0	139	195	194	389	56	215	39	5	194	17	-8	+0	—	—	+2	-0.6
2023	26	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	—	359	318	69	16	0	6	23	98	16	0	0	217	303	324	626	107	291	27	6	283	78	-10	+0	—	—	+8	-0.2
2024	27	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	—	177	162	35	6	0	6	9	48	4	0	0	216	274	364	638	148	262	27	5	280	76	-5	+0	—	—	+4	-0.1
2024	27	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	—	228	206	50	6	2	4	12	61	9	1	0	243	313	350	662	107	318	27	5	286	80	-6	+0	—	—	+5	-0.0
2025	28	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	—	120	108	17	3	0	2	8	32	3	0	0	157	235	241	476	83	199	27	7	220	35	-9	+0	—	—	+3	-0.7
2018	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	246	226	59	9	0	7	13	56	7	1	1	261	321	394	715	133	319	23	5	305	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	A RAW	2 teams	—	246	219	67	11	0	8	19	39	7	1	1	306	378	466	844	160	343	16	8	376	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	AA MLE	3 teams	—	613	543	128	21	0	25	31	163	33	1	4	236	316	413	729	177	285	27	5	320	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	AA RAW	3 teams	—	613	523	153	29	1	27	51	127	33	1	4	293	390	507	897	214	336	21	8	394	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	435	374	83	24	0	12	27	92	30	0	0	222	325	382	707	160	259	21	6	312	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AAA RAW	Reno Aces	—	435	362	104	33	0	16	39	76	30	0	0	287	401	511	912	224	321	17	9	402	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	528	456	89	19	1	12	41	118	24	0	1	195	296	320	616	125	231	22	8	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	528	442	101	23	1	15	55	99	24	0	1	229	345	387	732	158	257	19	10	330	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	AA MLE	2 teams	—	438	390	81	18	0	8	27	130	17	0	0	208	288	315	603	108	285	30	6	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	AA RAW	2 teams	—	438	377	103	22	0	15	40	104	17	0	0	273	369	451	820	178	336	24	9	364	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	AA MLE	2 teams	—	405	368	86	12	2	10	21	109	13	1	0	234	299	359	657	125	302	27	5	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	AA RAW	2 teams	—	405	357	99	15	2	12	31	86	13	1	0	277	356	431	787	154	332	21	8	351	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	—	120	108	17	3	0	2	8	32	3	0	0	157	235	241	476	83	200	27	7	220	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	AA RAW	Reading Fightin Phils	—	120	105	20	4	0	3	11	27	3	0	0	190	286	314	600	124	224	22	9	275	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	246	224	59	9	0	7	13	56	7	1	1	263	321	397	718	134	309	23	5	305	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	AA MLE	3 teams	—	613	544	128	21	0	25	31	163	33	1	4	235	316	412	728	176	277	27	5	320	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	435	375	83	24	0	12	27	92	30	0	0	221	325	381	706	160	254	21	6	312	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	528	458	89	19	1	12	41	118	24	0	1	194	296	319	614	124	230	22	8	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	AA MLE	2 teams	—	438	391	81	18	0	8	27	130	17	0	0	207	288	315	603	107	277	30	6	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	AA MLE	2 teams	—	405	368	86	12	2	10	21	109	13	1	0	234	299	359	657	125	294	27	5	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	—	120	108	17	3	0	2	8	32	3	0	0	157	235	241	476	83	199	27	7	220	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	26	AA MLE	2 teams	—	438	391	81	18	0	8	27	130	17	0	0	207	288	315	603	107	277	30	6	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	AA MLE	2 teams	—	405	368	86	12	2	10	21	109	13	1	0	234	299	359	657	125	294	27	5	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	—	120	108	17	3	0	2	8	32	3	0	0	157	235	241	476	83	199	27	7	220	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	29	MLB MLE	PHI	2%	16	15	3	1	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	200	250	267	517	67	291	25	6	285	79	-0	+0	-0	-0	+0	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	PHI	23%	286	259	59	11	1	6	18	76	7	1	0	228	296	347	643	120	289	27	6	285	79	-7	+0	-2	-5	+6	-0.8
2027	30	MLB CTX	PHI	23%	65	59	12	2	0	1	4	17	2	0	0	203	277	288	565	85	292	26	6	272	79	-2	+0	-1	-1	+1	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	191	170	33	5	0	2	15	48	5	0	0	194	279	259	538	65	256	25	8	256	83	-9	+0	-1	-11	+4	-1.7
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	579	112	17	0	7	51	163	17	0	0	193	278	259	537	66	255	25	8	256	83	-29	+0	-5	-36	+14	-5.7
Career	—	MLE		—	3087	2739	605	118	4	82	187	780	134	4	6	221	303	357	659	136	275	25	6	291	83	-14	+0	-3	-15	+9	-2.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	577	127	25	1	17	39	164	28	1	1	220	301	355	656	135	274	25	6	291	83	-22	+0	-5	-23	+14	-3.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Seth Beer (OGILVIE)	29	40	40	27	48	222/288/337	115	291	4	1	27%	6%	79	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Mike Costanzo 2013 · MLB	29	43→47	45	38→40	43	213/273/336	124	294	12	4	31%	7%	72	-0.7	206/266/328	122	297	13	5	33%	7%	68	-1.0	190/252/310	120	273	13	2	34%	7%	57	-0.9
✕Jordan Lennerton 2015 · AAA	29	46→52	45	36→30	48	225/296/346	120	299	12	2	28%	9%	82	+0.0	214/277/320	106	287	10	5	27%	8%	70	-0.9	191/249/272	81	255	6	0	26%	7%	45	-1.5
✕Eric Aguilera 2019 · AA	29	42→52	45→50	37→45	39	209/263/331	122	295	13	4	33%	6%	67	-1.1	232/288/361	129	333	14	5	33%	6%	83	+0.1	235/291/362	127	338	15	1	33%	6%	82	+0.0
✕Norel González 2023 · AAA	29	45	49→50	40	42	231/285/377	146	290	17	6	26%	6%	86	+0.3	222/286/351	129	291	14	6	27%	7%	80	-0.1	202/276/313	111	265	12	2	27%	8%	65	-0.6
✕Larry Broadway 2009 · AAA	28	46→48	44→50	39→40	46	225/284/347	122	293	11	4	26%	8%	78	-0.3	219/273/342	123	301	13	6	30%	6%	73	-0.6	190/236/303	113	268	14	0	34%	5%	48	-0.9
✕Carlos Ibarra 2014 · AAA	30	47	49→50	37→40	38	242/276/382	140	294	18	4	25%	4%	84	+0.1	219/257/315	96	278	10	4	24%	5%	60	-1.6	207/243/273	65	266	5	1	23%	4%	43	-0.9
✕Viosergy Rosa 2018 · AA	28	41→50	45	39→30	43	207/269/326	119	285	13	2	31%	8%	68	-1.0	225/281/362	137	305	15	5	30%	7%	80	-0.1	246/311/424	177	323	19	0	28%	9%	103	+0.3
✕Wes Bankston 2013 · AAA	29	45→54	46→50	36→40	47	227/283/351	124	259	14	4	18%	6%	79	-0.2	237/300/369	132	283	14	4	21%	7%	90	+0.6	237/305/370	133	284	13	1	21%	8%	90	+0.3
✕Ben Lasater 2013 · AAA	29	50→49	43→45	39→30	40	239/288/355	116	322	10	4	28%	6%	82	-0.0	216/275/316	100	308	9	6	31%	7%	68	-1.0	175/240/241	66	256	8	0	33%	7%	34	-1.3
✕Michael Ryan 2006 · MLB	29	48→49	46→50	38→30	47	241/291/367	126	287	13	6	21%	7%	85	+0.2	220/260/346	126	273	13	4	24%	5%	69	-0.9	232/272/392	160	276	18	2	23%	5%	86	+0.1
✕Mike Vento 2007 · MLB	29	52→51	44→45	38→30	46	252/307/370	118	299	11	5	20%	6%	92	+0.7	233/280/351	118	288	11	6	22%	5%	78	-0.3	218/257/332	113	271	10	2	23%	4%	63	-0.6
✕Matt Cepicky 2006 · MLB	28	44→43	48→50	40→30	43	224/276/371	147	292	15	5	28%	7%	81	-0.1	214/267/348	134	282	13	4	28%	7%	72	-0.7	203/256/331	128	266	13	2	28%	7%	64	-0.9
✕Chris McGuiness 2015 · MLB	27	45→48	45	38→30	51	222/295/353	131	272	12	2	22%	9%	84	+0.1	215/287/310	95	264	8	5	20%	9%	71	-0.8	193/272/244	51	236	4	1	19%	9%	49	-1.6
✕Preston Beck 2019 · AAA	28	45→44	42→45	41→45	42	219/268/321	102	276	9	4	24%	6%	66	-1.1	219/276/331	112	284	10	5	25%	7%	72	-0.7	213/274/323	110	275	9	3	25%	7%	66	-0.9
✕Jose Castaneda 2014 · AAA	29	46→48	42→45	38→40	39	225/269/326	101	287	11	5	26%	4%	68	-1.0	213/264/311	98	275	10	6	25%	6%	62	-1.4	204/257/288	84	261	9	3	25%	6%	52	-0.9
✕Chris Parmelee 2016 · MLB	28	48→51	46→50	39→45	45	241/295/369	129	296	14	4	24%	7%	87	+0.4	215/278/350	135	274	16	4	26%	8%	77	-0.3	183/260/330	147	234	20	0	31%	9%	65	-0.5
✕Baltazar Lopez 2013 · AAA	29	46	45→50	41→45	35	225/265/351	126	326	13	5	34%	5%	72	-0.7	227/279/366	139	322	16	5	33%	6%	81	-0.1	223/292/324	101	345	12	1	36%	8%	75	-0.1
✕Luke Tendler 2019 · AA	27	43→45	46→50	38→40	41	217/268/341	124	281	14	3	28%	6%	71	-0.8	206/256/318	112	276	12	6	29%	6%	61	-1.5	183/234/285	102	243	11	4	29%	6%	42	-2.2
✕Jason Conti 2005 · MLB	30	47→41	44→45	40→50	45	231/290/355	124	303	11	8	27%	8%	82	+0.0	218/268/336	118	288	12	6	28%	6%	70	-0.9	209/257/318	109	276	12	4	28%	5%	59	-1.0
✕Michael Aubrey 2011 · MLB	29	43→52	47→50	40→30	45	217/258/358	141	233	15	4	15%	4%	72	-0.7	223/280/374	151	242	18	6	16%	7%	84	+0.1	225/287/374	148	233	20	0	14%	8%	84	+0.1