Alejandro Rosario

Alejandro Rosario P Down East Wood Ducks

Age 24 RHP 6'1" / 182 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 2.1 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 7 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9384vR 76

ERA3.12

FIP3.12

K%28.8%

BB%4.5%

K-BB%24.3%

ROS IP7

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 7 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$44M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5560

CTRL—65

CMD4050

K†6565

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$7M	+$7M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.6	$11M	+$10M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.8	$11M	+$11M
2030	Arb-1	$6M	+1.7	$10M	+$6M
2031	Arb-2	$9M	+1.6	$9M	+$4M
2032	Arb-3	$11M	+1.3	$7M	+$0.8M
Totals		$28M		$55M	+$39M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	17	88	350	129	13	2	94%	4.9	27.8%	4.3%	23.5%	0.7%	2.24	1.70	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	17	88	350	129	13	2	94%	4.9	27.8%	4.3%	23.5%	0.7%	2.24	1.70	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	17	88	350	129	13	2	94%	4.9	36.9%	3.7%	33.1%	0.6%	2.24	0.92	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	24	MLB	TEX	1	1	7	30	9	1	1	100%	7.0	28.8%	4.5%	24.3%	2.7%	3.12	3.12	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	TEX	19	19	109	461	131	21	13	100%	5.7	28.5%	4.7%	23.8%	2.7%	3.20	3.17	+2.3
2028	26	MLB MLE	TEX	20	20	121	511	144	25	14	100%	6.1	28.2%	4.9%	23.3%	2.8%	3.25	3.23	+2.5
2029	27	MLB MLE	TEX	20	20	119	504	140	26	14	100%	6.0	27.9%	5.1%	22.8%	2.8%	3.31	3.32	+2.3
2030	28	MLB MLE	TEX	19	19	116	489	135	26	14	100%	6.1	27.6%	5.3%	22.3%	2.9%	3.39	3.43	+2.1
2031	29	MLB MLE	TEX	18	18	110	467	128	26	14	100%	6.1	27.4%	5.5%	21.9%	3.1%	3.49	3.56	+1.8
2032	30	MLB MLE	TEX	17	17	104	439	119	26	14	100%	6.1	27.0%	5.8%	21.2%	3.3%	3.64	3.74	+1.5
2033	31	MLB MLE	TEX	16	16	97	409	109	25	14	100%	6.1	26.6%	6.2%	20.4%	3.5%	3.82	3.94	+1.1
2034	32	MLB MLE	TEX	15	15	90	378	99	25	14	100%	6.0	26.2%	6.6%	19.6%	3.8%	4.03	4.17	+0.8
2035	33	MLB MLE	TEX	14	14	82	347	89	24	14	100%	5.9	25.7%	7.0%	18.6%	4.0%	4.26	4.42	+0.5
2036	34	MLB MLE	TEX	12	12	75	316	86	21	14	100%	6.2	27.1%	6.7%	20.4%	4.3%	4.36	4.42	+0.4
2027	25	MLB CTX	TEX	8	8	47	198	57	9	6	100%	5.9	28.5%	4.7%	23.8%	3.0%	3.31	3.28	+1.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	TEX	13	13	80	338	95	16	10	100%	6.2	28.2%	4.9%	23.3%	3.0%	3.36	3.34	+1.6
2029	27	MLB CTX	TEX	15	15	92	388	108	20	12	100%	6.1	27.9%	5.1%	22.8%	3.0%	3.43	3.44	+1.8
2030	28	MLB CTX	TEX	16	16	97	410	113	22	13	100%	6.1	27.6%	5.3%	22.3%	3.2%	3.51	3.55	+1.7
2031	29	MLB CTX	TEX	16	16	97	410	112	23	14	100%	6.1	27.4%	5.5%	21.9%	3.3%	3.62	3.69	+1.6
2032	30	MLB CTX	TEX	16	16	93	393	106	23	14	100%	5.8	27.0%	5.8%	21.2%	3.5%	3.78	3.88	+1.3
2033	31	MLB CTX	TEX	15	15	89	376	100	23	14	100%	5.9	26.6%	6.2%	20.4%	3.8%	3.96	4.08	+1.0
2034	32	MLB CTX	TEX	14	14	83	350	92	23	14	100%	5.9	26.2%	6.6%	19.6%	4.0%	4.18	4.32	+0.7
2035	33	MLB CTX	TEX	13	13	77	325	83	23	14	100%	5.9	25.7%	7.0%	18.6%	4.3%	4.43	4.59	+0.4
2036	34	MLB CTX	TEX	11	11	66	279	76	19	13	100%	6.0	27.1%	6.7%	20.4%	4.7%	4.54	4.60	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		137	137	821	3467	942	200	123	100%	6.0	27.2%	5.8%	21.4%	3.6%	3.80	3.49	+14.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	229	49	30	100%	6.0	27.2%	5.8%	21.4%	3.6%	3.80	3.49	+3.5
Career	—	MLE		18	17	88	350	97	15	3	94%	4.9	27.8%	4.3%	23.5%	0.7%	2.24	1.70	+15.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		41	38	200	792	220	34	6	94%	4.9	27.8%	4.3%	23.5%	0.7%	2.24	1.70	+3.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alejandro Rosario (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.12	28.8%	4.5%	2.7%	—	3.24	28.2%	23.3%	350	+0.12	—	—	—
Caleb Kilian R 2021 · 2.42 FIP	24	SP	2.42	23.4%	3.7%	1.5%	.277	4.03	18.5%	9.2%	283	+1.61	2.42	444	79
Stephen Strasburg R 2015 · 2.70 FIP	27	SP	2.70	29.6%	5.0%	2.7%	.308	2.81	29.5%	22.9%	453	+0.11	2.42	811	77
Christian Scott R 2023 · 2.56 FIP	24	SP	2.56	25.6%	4.1%	2.0%	.265	4.02	25.6%	17.6%	203	+1.46	2.56	347	76
Logan Gilbert R 2021 · 3.51 FIP	24	SP	3.51	25.4%	5.2%	3.5%	.286	3.41	25.0%	20.0%	585	-0.10	3.04	1,142	75
Joe Ryan R 2019 · 2.41 FIP	23	SP	2.41	29.2%	6.2%	1.8%	.264	3.51	27.6%	20.9%	240	+1.10	2.41	961	75
Erik Swanson R 2018 · 3.14 FIP	24	SP	3.14	25.2%	6.9%	2.3%	.271	5.07	22.3%	15.9%	118	+1.93	1.60	606	72
Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	21.8%	5.6%	3.4%	.336	6.33	25.7%	15.1%	20	+2.49	3.84	124	72
Kumar Rocker R 2023 · 2.86 FIP	23	SP	2.86	29.1%	7.3%	2.4%	.317	3.93	22.0%	13.5%	250	+1.07	1.93	278	72
Alex Faedo R 2019 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP	3.73	22.9%	5.8%	3.3%	.293	4.52	18.0%	7.8%	54	+0.79	3.66	456	72
Andy Ferguson R 2015 · 3.68 FIP	26	SP-	3.68	22.3%	5.7%	3.2%	.262	3.10	18.6%	10.6%	33	-0.58	3.10	137	71
Kyle Brnovich R 2021 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP	3.95	25.1%	7.5%	3.7%	.256	5.54	20.7%	11.0%	89	+1.59	3.95	338	70
Davis Daniel R 2021 · 3.93 FIP	24	SP	3.93	25.8%	7.7%	3.7%	.313	4.18	19.1%	12.1%	283	+0.25	3.04	593	70
Zebby Matthews R 2023 · 3.96 FIP	23	SP	3.96	20.0%	4.1%	3.7%	.290	3.98	22.8%	17.1%	404	+0.02	3.18	510	70
Landon Knack R 2021 · 3.68 FIP	24	SP-	3.68	26.1%	3.7%	4.2%	.284	4.08	22.2%	13.9%	302	+0.40	2.77	544	69
David Sandlin R 2023 · 4.05 FIP	22	SP	4.05	24.8%	6.5%	4.0%	.360	4.39	21.4%	12.1%	253	+0.34	3.94	312	69
Brent Honeywell R 2017 · 2.94 FIP	22	SP	2.94	25.6%	6.2%	2.2%	.363	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	617	69
Raisel Iglesias R 2015 · 3.54 FIP	25	SP	3.54	23.7%	7.1%	2.8%	.271	3.11	27.7%	19.6%	226	-0.43	1.34	820	68
Josh Winder R 2021 · 3.60 FIP	24	SP	3.60	23.9%	5.1%	3.4%	.266	4.40	18.6%	10.8%	189	+0.80	2.66	426	67
Tommy Romero R 2021 · 3.09 FIP	24	SP	3.09	28.1%	7.6%	2.5%	.261	4.98	17.7%	6.1%	245	+1.89	2.76	721	67
Cade Horton R 2023 · 3.22 FIP	21	SP	3.22	26.0%	8.8%	2.2%	.273	3.60	21.6%	13.8%	181	+0.38	3.22	270	65

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.6	101	27.4%	5.6%	1.24	3.58
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Julio Urías ('23)	3.6	102	24.2%	6.6%	1.06	3.13
Ross Stripling ('24)	4.2	94	20.9%	5.6%	1.32	4.17
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45