Alejandro Rosario
P
Down East Wood Ducks
+1.5
WAR
Age 24
RHP
6'1" / 182 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 1.7 · 2028
ERA3.95
FIP3.95
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%24.4%
BB%8.1%
K-BB%16.3%
IP88
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.7peak
2028
K†6060
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Hickory Crawdads | 18 | 17 | 88 | 350 | 129 | 13 | 2 | 27.8% | 4.3% | 0.7% | 2.24 | 1.70 | +3.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | TEX | 16 | 16 | 88 | 373 | 91 | 30 | 10 | 24.4% | 8.1% | 2.7% | 3.95 | 3.95 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | TEX | 18 | 18 | 101 | 428 | 105 | 34 | 12 | 24.5% | 7.9% | 2.7% | 3.94 | 3.92 | +1.6 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | TEX | 20 | 20 | 108 | 458 | 112 | 36 | 13 | 24.5% | 7.9% | 2.8% | 3.94 | 3.92 | +1.7 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | TEX | 20 | 20 | 112 | 471 | 115 | 37 | 13 | 24.4% | 7.9% | 2.8% | 3.95 | 3.95 | +1.7 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | TEX | 20 | 20 | 112 | 472 | 115 | 38 | 13 | 24.3% | 7.9% | 2.8% | 3.97 | 3.98 | +1.7 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | TEX | 20 | 20 | 109 | 462 | 112 | 37 | 13 | 24.2% | 8.0% | 2.9% | 4.01 | 4.03 | +1.6 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | TEX | 19 | 19 | 106 | 448 | 108 | 36 | 13 | 24.0% | 8.1% | 2.9% | 4.06 | 4.09 | +1.5 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | TEX | 19 | 19 | 102 | 432 | 103 | 36 | 13 | 23.8% | 8.2% | 3.0% | 4.12 | 4.17 | +1.3 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | TEX | 18 | 18 | 98 | 415 | 97 | 35 | 13 | 23.5% | 8.4% | 3.1% | 4.20 | 4.25 | +1.2 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | TEX | 17 | 17 | 94 | 396 | 92 | 34 | 13 | 23.2% | 8.6% | 3.2% | 4.29 | 4.35 | +1.0 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | TEX | 16 | 16 | 89 | 377 | 86 | 33 | 12 | 22.8% | 8.8% | 3.3% | 4.39 | 4.46 | +0.8 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | TEX | 15 | 15 | 84 | 355 | 80 | 32 | 12 | 22.4% | 9.0% | 3.4% | 4.50 | 4.58 | +0.6 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | TEX | 14 | 14 | 79 | 332 | 80 | 28 | 12 | 24.0% | 8.5% | 3.5% | 4.47 | 4.45 | +0.6 |
| 2039 | 37 | MLB | TEX | 13 | 13 | 73 | 308 | 72 | 27 | 11 | 23.5% | 8.7% | 3.6% | 4.54 | 4.59 | +0.4 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 18 | 17 | 88 | 350 | 97 | 15 | 3 | 27.8% | 4.3% | 0.7% | 2.24 | 1.70 | +3.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 41 | 38 | 200 | 792 | 220 | 34 | 7 | 27.8% | 4.3% | 0.7% | 2.24 | 1.70 | +8.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Alejandro Rosario (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.95 | 24.4% | 8.1% | 2.7% | — | 3.93 | 24.5% | 16.6% | 321 | -0.02 | — | — | — |
| K.C. Hunt R 2026 · 2.68 FIP | 24 | SP- | 2.68 | 26.8% | 7.1% | 1.7% | .277 | 4.34 | 19.3% | 10.3% | 121 | +1.66 | 2.68 | 223 | 91 |
| Jake Smith R 2027 · 3.11 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.11 | 28.1% | 7.5% | 2.6% | .243 | 4.69 | 19.3% | -1.7% | 26 | +1.58 | 3.11 | 110 | 89 |
| Kyle Brnovich R 2025 · 4.01 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.01 | 25.1% | 7.5% | 3.8% | .256 | 5.52 | 20.7% | 11.0% | 89 | +1.51 | 4.01 | 277 | 89 |
| Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.87 | 21.8% | 5.6% | 3.5% | .336 | 6.35 | 25.7% | 15.1% | 20 | +2.48 | 3.87 | 124 | 85 |
| Andy Ferguson R 2028 · 3.65 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.65 | 22.3% | 5.7% | 3.1% | .262 | 3.09 | 18.6% | 10.6% | 33 | -0.56 | 3.09 | 137 | 84 |
| Ian Gardeck R 2026 · 2.93 FIP | 24 | SP- | 2.93 | 22.4% | 7.7% | 1.4% | .319 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.93 | 105 | 84 |
| Erik Swanson R 2026 · 3.14 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.14 | 25.2% | 6.9% | 2.4% | .271 | 5.11 | 22.3% | 15.9% | 118 | +1.97 | 1.58 | 606 | 83 |
| Alex Faedo R 2025 · 3.72 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.72 | 22.9% | 5.8% | 3.3% | .293 | 4.54 | 18.0% | 7.8% | 54 | +0.82 | 3.72 | 438 | 83 |
| Ben Gross R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.02 | 23.0% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .359 | 4.85 | 17.6% | 2.0% | 22 | +0.83 | 4.02 | 118 | 83 |
| Davis Daniel R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.90 | 25.8% | 7.7% | 3.6% | .313 | 4.20 | 19.6% | 12.2% | 283 | +0.30 | 3.02 | 519 | 83 |
| Martin Agosta R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.29 | 21.6% | 6.2% | 4.0% | .340 | 4.59 | 12.3% | 5.7% | 40 | +0.30 | 4.29 | 146 | 82 |
| Brendan McCurry R 2026 · 2.87 FIP | 24 | SP- | 2.87 | 23.2% | 6.0% | 1.8% | .309 | 3.76 | 23.8% | 16.7% | 163 | +0.89 | 2.52 | 308 | 82 |
| Brett Sears R 2027 · 3.63 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.63 | 21.1% | 7.1% | 2.6% | .244 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 111 | 82 |
| Kyle Bradish R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.60 | 26.4% | 10.6% | 2.5% | .333 | 3.28 | 24.9% | 17.2% | 345 | -0.32 | 2.16 | 615 | 81 |
| Raisel Iglesias R 2027 · 3.57 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.57 | 23.7% | 7.1% | 2.9% | .271 | 3.07 | 27.7% | 19.6% | 226 | -0.50 | 1.32 | 765 | 81 |
| Chase Hampton R 2023 · 4.05 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.05 | 26.1% | 9.5% | 3.5% | .296 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.05 | 107 | 81 |
| Trevor May R 2027 · 3.04 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.04 | 22.4% | 4.9% | 2.2% | .334 | 3.61 | 28.8% | 19.5% | 95 | +0.57 | 3.04 | 432 | 81 |
| John Klein R 2025 · 3.22 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.22 | 22.8% | 8.6% | 1.7% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.22 | 260 | 79 |
| Kaleb Fontenot R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.49 | 20.7% | 8.6% | 3.7% | .264 | 3.71 | 14.7% | 5.2% | 69 | -0.78 | 3.71 | 155 | 79 |
| Carson Ragsdale R 2025 · 4.22 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.22 | 25.0% | 10.7% | 3.4% | .349 | 4.35 | 25.2% | 14.2% | 148 | +0.13 | 2.01 | 352 | 78 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +1.7 | $15M | +$14M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.7 | $15M | +$14M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +1.6 | $15M | +$14M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +1.5 | $14M | +$11M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $5M | +1.3 | $13M | +$8M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $7M | +1.2 | $12M | +$5M |
| Totals | $18M | $84M | +$66M | ||