Alejandro Rosario

P Down East Wood Ducks

Age 25 RHP 6'1" / 182 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.2 · 2027

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP40OGV rank#148ETA2028MLB%4%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	18	17	88	2.24	0.92	36.9%	3.7%	—	K 27.8% · BB 4.3% · FIP 1.70
2025	23	No MLB games played
2026	24	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	25	MLBTEX	1	1	3	3.42	3.42	27.9%	5.5%	0.1
2028PROJ45% MLB	26	MLBTEX	6	6	37	3.61	3.61	27.7%	5.9%	0.9
2029PROJ64% MLB	27	MLBTEX	9	9	52	3.69	3.70	27.3%	6.1%	1.1

Next 3 projected WAR 2.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$3M2032Ext$5M2033Ext$6M

CompsYoshinobu Yamamoto (age 25) · Kutter Crawford (age 25) · Andy Ferguson (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9890vR 82

ERA3.42

FIP3.42

K%27.9%

BB%5.5%

K-BB%22.4%

Proj IP71

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 71 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$15M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$3M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.1	$8M	+$7M
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$11M	+$10M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	17	88	350	129	13	2	94%	4.9	27.8%	4.3%	23.5%	0.7%	2.24	1.70	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	17	88	350	129	13	2	94%	4.9	27.8%	4.3%	23.5%	0.7%	2.24	1.70	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	17	88	350	129	13	2	94%	4.9	36.9%	3.7%	33.1%	0.6%	2.24	0.92	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	TEX	1	1	3	13	4	1	0	100%	3.0	27.9%	5.5%	22.4%	2.9%	3.42	3.42	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	TEX	14	14	83	350	97	21	10	100%	5.9	27.7%	5.9%	21.8%	2.9%	3.49	3.49	+1.9
2029	27	MLB MLE	TEX	14	14	82	345	94	21	10	100%	5.8	27.3%	6.1%	21.2%	3.0%	3.57	3.58	+1.8
2030	28	MLB MLE	TEX	13	13	79	334	97	18	10	100%	6.1	28.9%	5.5%	23.3%	3.1%	3.50	3.43	+1.9
2031	29	MLB MLE	TEX	13	13	76	319	91	19	10	100%	5.8	28.5%	5.8%	22.6%	3.2%	3.56	3.58	+1.7
2032	30	MLB MLE	TEX	12	12	71	300	84	18	10	100%	5.9	28.1%	6.1%	22.0%	3.4%	3.68	3.76	+1.4
2033	31	MLB MLE	TEX	11	11	66	280	78	18	10	100%	6.0	27.7%	6.5%	21.2%	3.6%	3.85	3.96	+1.1
2034	32	MLB MLE	TEX	10	10	61	259	71	18	10	100%	6.1	27.3%	6.9%	20.4%	3.9%	4.05	4.19	+0.9
2028	26	MLB CTX	TEX	6	6	37	156	43	9	5	100%	6.2	27.7%	5.9%	21.8%	3.1%	3.61	3.61	+0.9
2029	27	MLB CTX	TEX	9	9	52	220	60	13	7	100%	5.8	27.3%	6.1%	21.2%	3.2%	3.69	3.70	+1.1
2030	28	MLB CTX	TEX	10	10	60	253	73	14	8	100%	6.0	28.9%	5.5%	23.3%	3.3%	3.63	3.56	+1.4
2031	29	MLB CTX	TEX	10	10	62	262	75	15	9	100%	6.2	28.5%	5.8%	22.6%	3.5%	3.69	3.71	+1.4
2032	30	MLB CTX	TEX	10	10	61	258	72	16	9	100%	6.1	28.1%	6.1%	22.0%	3.7%	3.82	3.90	+1.2
2033	31	MLB CTX	TEX	10	10	59	249	69	16	10	100%	5.9	27.7%	6.5%	21.2%	3.9%	4.00	4.11	+1.0
2034	32	MLB CTX	TEX	9	9	56	236	65	16	10	100%	6.2	27.3%	6.9%	20.4%	4.2%	4.21	4.35	+0.8
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		65	65	387	1635	457	100	58	100%	6.0	28.0%	6.1%	21.8%	3.6%	3.82	3.48	+9.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	236	52	30	100%	6.0	28.0%	6.1%	21.8%	3.6%	3.82	3.48	+4.7
Career	—	MLE		18	17	88	350	97	15	3	94%	4.9	27.8%	4.3%	23.5%	0.7%	2.24	1.70	+10.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		41	38	200	792	220	34	6	94%	4.9	27.8%	4.3%	23.5%	0.7%	2.24	1.70	+4.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 ADown East Wood Ducks · 47 IPFIP 0.91 → 1.95 (+1.04)K% 36.9% → 27.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.90%	—	×0.740	27.30%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.67%	—	×1.180	3.16%
HR / BF /BF	1.07%	÷1.008	×1.300	1.38%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 102).

Result: FIP 0.91 → 1.95, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Hickory Crawdads · 41 IPFIP 0.61 → 1.42 (+0.81)K% 36.8% → 28.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.81%	—	×0.770	28.34%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.91%	—	×1.150	5.64%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.014	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 103).

Result: FIP 0.61 → 1.42, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alejandro Rosario (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.9%	—	3.50	27.9%	22.1%	244	+0.08	—	—	—
Yoshinobu Yamamoto R 2024 · 2.45 FIP	25	SP	2.45	28.5%	6.0%	1.8%	.303	2.98	27.5%	20.3%	359	+0.53	2.45	449	84
Kutter Crawford R 2021 · 3.30 FIP	25	SP	3.30	29.1%	5.6%	3.5%	.321	4.23	23.6%	16.6%	415	+0.93	3.30	741	83
Andy Ferguson R 2015 · 3.68 FIP	26	SP-	3.68	22.3%	5.7%	3.2%	.262	3.10	18.6%	10.6%	33	-0.58	3.10	137	76
Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	21.8%	5.6%	3.4%	.336	6.33	25.7%	15.1%	20	+2.49	3.84	124	76
Shane Greene R 2014 · 3.37 FIP	25	SP	3.37	23.5%	8.4%	2.2%	.322	3.82	19.0%	10.9%	247	+0.45	2.86	563	73
Braxton Bragg R 2024 · 3.70 FIP	23	SP	3.70	22.3%	6.4%	3.0%	.325	2.58	26.2%	18.1%	59	-1.12	2.58	155	72
Raisel Iglesias R 2015 · 3.54 FIP	25	SP	3.54	23.7%	7.1%	2.8%	.271	3.11	27.7%	19.6%	226	-0.43	1.34	825	71
Shohei Ohtani R 2018 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP	3.43	29.9%	10.4%	2.8%	.267	3.14	29.3%	21.4%	130	-0.29	1.76	613	71
Owen Wild R 2024 · 3.67 FIP	22	SP	3.67	23.2%	7.2%	2.9%	.319	4.90	21.2%	12.1%	166	+1.23	3.67	287	70
Todd Redmond R 2013 · 4.14 FIP	28	SP-	4.14	23.5%	6.5%	4.0%	.266	3.57	17.0%	10.1%	170	-0.57	3.21	247	69
James McDonald R 2010 · 2.99 FIP	25	SP-	2.99	22.2%	7.8%	1.4%	.314	4.36	19.8%	10.2%	372	+1.37	2.99	506	69
Will Warren R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	25	SP	4.26	24.5%	7.6%	4.1%	.344	3.77	23.7%	15.2%	318	-0.49	3.72	709	69
Erik Hiljus R 2001 · 3.35 FIP	28	SP-	3.35	23.1%	6.9%	2.4%	.321	6.07	14.1%	4.4%	46	+2.72	3.35	112	68
Dylan DeLucia R 2024 · 3.88 FIP	23	SP	3.88	21.6%	7.4%	3.0%	.241	5.29	18.0%	7.2%	197	+1.41	3.88	232	68
Jose Acevedo R 2003 · 3.43 FIP	25	SP-	3.43	22.3%	4.9%	2.9%	.194	4.85	14.9%	9.8%	222	+1.42	3.43	368	68
Glenn Otto Jr. R 2021 · 2.56 FIP	25	SP	2.56	28.3%	6.9%	1.8%	.336	4.94	19.8%	8.1%	194	+2.38	2.56	369	68
M.D. Johnson R 2022 · 4.27 FIP	25	SP	4.27	21.3%	7.1%	3.8%	.269	4.85	15.7%	4.1%	181	+0.58	3.52	395	67
Chad Patrick R 2024 · 3.92 FIP	25	SP	3.92	22.5%	6.3%	3.5%	.262	3.78	23.0%	14.2%	268	-0.14	3.69	570	67
Ryan Watson R 2024 · 4.15 FIP	25	SP-	4.15	18.6%	4.9%	3.7%	.342	5.48	13.1%	5.4%	98	+1.33	4.15	165	67
Chase Anderson R 2014 · 4.06 FIP	26	SP	4.06	21.6%	7.8%	3.3%	.309	4.03	19.6%	12.6%	446	-0.03	3.30	1,260	67

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.9	74	27.9%	6.0%	1.25	3.62
Chad Green ('25)	2.5	62	30.0%	6.4%	1.42	3.43
Joe Sambito ('76-'87, 8 WAR*)	3.1	70	26.8%*	7.5%*	1.06*	3.65*
Giovanny Gallegos ('24)	1.7	56	29.6%	6.6%	1.18	3.49
Seunghwan Oh ('19)	1.1	75	26.8%	6.0%	1.16	3.31
Jeff Montgomery ('87-'99, 19 WAR*)	4.3	72	26.2%*	7.6%*	1.01*	3.16*
Steve Hamilton ('61-'72, 10 WAR*)	3.3	66	25.2%*	7.7%*	0.92*	3.71*