Alejandro Rosario

Alejandro Rosario P Down East Wood Ducks

Age 24 RHP 6'1" / 182 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.1 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 60 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9586vR 76

ERA3.27

FIP3.27

K%28.8%

BB%5.6%

K-BB%23.1%

ROS IP60

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5560

CTRL—65

CMD4050

K†6565

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Arb-1	$5M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-2	$8M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$10M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$7M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2024	22	MIX	2 levels	18	17	88	350	129	13	2	94%	4.9	27.8%	4.3%	23.5%	0.7%	2.24	1.70	—
2024	22	MIX	2 levels	18	17	88	350	129	13	2	94%	4.9	36.9%	3.7%	33.1%	0.6%	2.24	0.92	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	24	MLB	TEX	16	16	90	380	109	21	10	100%	5.6	28.8%	5.6%	23.1%	2.7%	3.27	3.27	+2.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	25	MLB	TEX	19	19	109	461	131	26	13	100%	5.7	28.5%	5.7%	22.8%	2.7%	3.33	3.31	+2.7
2028	26	MLB	TEX	20	20	121	511	144	30	14	100%	6.1	28.2%	5.8%	22.4%	2.8%	3.37	3.35	+2.9
2029	27	MLB	TEX	20	20	119	504	140	30	14	100%	6.0	27.9%	6.0%	21.9%	2.8%	3.43	3.44	+2.7
2030	28	MLB	TEX	19	19	116	489	135	30	14	100%	6.1	27.6%	6.2%	21.4%	2.9%	3.50	3.54	+2.5
2031	29	MLB	TEX	18	18	110	467	128	30	14	100%	6.1	27.4%	6.4%	21.0%	3.1%	3.60	3.67	+2.2
2032	30	MLB	TEX	17	17	104	439	119	29	14	100%	6.1	27.0%	6.7%	20.3%	3.3%	3.75	3.85	+1.9
2033	31	MLB	TEX	16	16	97	409	109	29	14	100%	6.1	26.6%	7.1%	19.6%	3.5%	3.93	4.05	+1.5
2034	32	MLB	TEX	15	15	90	378	99	28	14	100%	6.0	26.2%	7.5%	18.7%	3.8%	4.14	4.28	+0.9
2035	33	MLB	TEX	14	14	82	347	89	27	14	100%	5.9	25.7%	7.9%	17.8%	4.0%	4.37	4.53	+0.5
2036	34	MLB	TEX	12	12	75	316	86	24	14	100%	6.2	27.1%	7.6%	19.5%	4.3%	4.47	4.53	+0.3
2037	35	MLB	TEX	11	11	67	283	75	23	13	100%	6.1	26.5%	8.2%	18.4%	4.7%	4.69	4.84	-0.1
2038	36	MLB	TEX	10	10	59	251	65	22	13	100%	5.9	25.8%	8.8%	17.1%	5.0%	4.98	5.18	-0.4
2027	25	MLB	TEX	8	8	47	198	57	11	6	100%	5.9	28.5%	5.7%	22.8%	2.8%	3.35	3.33	+0.7
2028	26	MLB	TEX	13	13	80	338	95	20	9	100%	6.2	28.2%	5.8%	22.4%	2.8%	3.39	3.37	+1.5
2029	27	MLB	TEX	15	15	92	388	108	23	11	100%	6.1	27.9%	6.0%	21.9%	2.9%	3.45	3.46	+1.9
2030	28	MLB	TEX	16	16	97	410	113	25	12	100%	6.1	27.6%	6.2%	21.4%	3.0%	3.52	3.56	+2.0
2031	29	MLB	TEX	16	16	97	410	112	26	13	100%	6.1	27.4%	6.4%	21.0%	3.1%	3.62	3.69	+1.9
2032	30	MLB	TEX	16	16	93	393	106	26	13	100%	5.8	27.0%	6.7%	20.3%	3.3%	3.77	3.87	+1.5
2033	31	MLB	TEX	15	15	89	376	100	27	13	100%	5.9	26.6%	7.1%	19.6%	3.6%	3.95	4.07	+1.1
2034	32	MLB	TEX	14	14	83	350	92	26	13	100%	5.9	26.2%	7.5%	18.7%	3.8%	4.17	4.31	+0.7
2035	33	MLB	TEX	13	13	77	325	83	26	13	100%	5.9	25.7%	7.9%	17.8%	4.1%	4.40	4.56	+0.3
2036	34	MLB	TEX	11	11	66	279	76	21	12	100%	6.0	27.1%	7.6%	19.5%	4.4%	4.50	4.56	+0.1
2037	35	MLB	TEX	10	10	57	241	64	20	11	100%	5.7	26.5%	8.2%	18.4%	4.7%	4.72	4.87	-0.2
2038	36	MLB	TEX	8	8	45	190	49	17	10	100%	5.6	25.8%	8.8%	17.1%	5.1%	5.01	5.21	-0.3
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			154	154	922	3895	1054	268	137	100%	6.0	27.1%	6.9%	20.2%	3.5%	3.92	3.62	+19.2
/ 200 IP	—			33	33	200	844	229	58	30	100%	6.0	27.1%	6.9%	20.2%	3.5%	3.92	3.62	+4.2
Career	—			18	17	88	350	97	15	3	94%	4.9	27.8%	4.3%	23.5%	0.7%	2.24	1.70	+3.6
/ 200 IP	—			41	38	200	792	220	34	6	94%	4.9	27.8%	4.3%	23.5%	0.7%	2.24	1.70	+8.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alejandro Rosario (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.27	28.8%	5.6%	2.7%	—	3.37	28.2%	22.3%	350	+0.10	—	—	—
Yoshinobu Yamamoto R 2027 · 2.55 FIP	25	SP	2.55	28.5%	6.0%	2.0%	.303	3.04	27.6%	20.2%	284	+0.49	2.55	374	85
Caleb Kilian R 2026 · 2.38 FIP	24	SP	2.38	23.4%	3.7%	1.4%	.277	4.08	19.1%	9.1%	283	+1.70	2.38	434	78
Joe Ryan R 2025 · 2.43 FIP	23	SP	2.43	29.2%	6.2%	1.8%	.264	3.45	27.6%	20.9%	240	+1.02	2.43	941	77
Erik Swanson R 2026 · 3.08 FIP	24	SP	3.08	25.2%	6.9%	2.2%	.271	5.11	22.3%	15.9%	118	+2.03	1.63	606	77
Logan Gilbert R 2026 · 3.56 FIP	24	SP	3.56	25.4%	5.2%	3.6%	.286	3.46	25.0%	20.0%	585	-0.10	3.22	1,084	77
Stephen Strasburg R 2029 · 2.70 FIP	27	SP	2.70	29.6%	5.0%	2.7%	.308	2.81	29.5%	22.9%	453	+0.11	2.42	811	76
Kyle Brnovich R 2025 · 3.69 FIP	23	SP	3.69	25.1%	7.5%	3.2%	.256	5.06	20.7%	11.0%	89	+1.37	3.69	333	76
Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2026 · 3.69 FIP	24	SP	3.69	21.8%	5.6%	3.1%	.336	6.45	25.7%	15.1%	20	+2.76	3.69	124	76
Alex Faedo R 2025 · 3.39 FIP	23	SP	3.39	22.9%	5.8%	2.7%	.293	4.60	18.0%	7.8%	54	+1.21	3.39	438	76
Christian Scott R 2026 · 2.65 FIP	24	SP	2.65	25.6%	4.1%	2.2%	.265	4.34	25.6%	17.6%	157	+1.69	2.65	302	75
Davis Daniel R 2026 · 4.02 FIP	24	SP	4.02	25.8%	7.7%	3.9%	.313	4.34	19.6%	12.2%	283	+0.32	3.06	584	75
Andy Ferguson R 2028 · 3.57 FIP	26	SP-	3.57	22.3%	5.7%	3.0%	.262	3.13	18.6%	10.6%	33	-0.44	3.13	137	75
Raisel Iglesias R 2027 · 3.56 FIP	25	SP	3.56	23.7%	7.1%	2.9%	.271	3.14	27.7%	19.6%	226	-0.42	1.35	797	72
Brent Honeywell R 2024 · 2.89 FIP	22	SP	2.89	25.6%	6.2%	2.1%	.363	—	—	—	—	—	2.89	617	72
Jacob Kisting R 2025 · 2.74 FIP	23	SP	2.74	21.9%	5.9%	1.4%	.251	—	—	—	—	—	2.74	144	71
Tommy Romero R 2026 · 3.08 FIP	24	SP	3.08	28.1%	7.6%	2.5%	.261	5.00	18.3%	5.4%	245	+1.92	2.76	721	71
Tyson Hardin R 2026 · 3.45 FIP	24	SP	3.45	23.4%	8.3%	2.3%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	2.47	177	70
Javier Perez R 2024 · 4.03 FIP	22	SP	4.03	21.9%	5.1%	3.9%	.242	—	—	—	—	—	2.20	166	70
Josh Winder R 2026 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP	3.43	23.9%	5.1%	3.1%	.266	4.44	19.1%	10.7%	189	+1.01	2.66	426	69
Shohei Ohtani R 2026 · 3.52 FIP	24	SP	3.52	29.9%	10.4%	2.9%	.267	3.23	29.3%	21.4%	130	-0.29	1.85	613	69

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	13	95	27.3%	6.7%	1.31	3.81
Kenta Maeda ('24)	8	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Rich Hill ('23)	9	104	25.0%	8.0%	1.12	3.65
Ross Stripling ('24)	9	94	20.9%	5.6%	1.32	4.17
Jesse Chavez ('24)	9	82	22.2%	6.9%	1.26	3.94
Joe Musgrove ('24)	9	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Jon Gray ('24)	10	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45