Cam Caminiti — OGILVIE

Cam Caminiti P Rome Emperors

Age 19 LHP 6'2" / 195 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.3 · 2031

2026 ROS PROJECTION68 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 99108vR 117

ERA4.31

FIP4.31

K%24.6%

BB%10.6%

K-BB%14.0%

ROS IP65

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 133 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—55

STUF5055

CTRL4555

CMD4555

K†6065

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Arb-1	$8M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-2	$13M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$21M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$8M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2024	17	A	Augusta GreenJackets	1	1	3	12	4	0	0	100%	3.0	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	3.00	0.29	—
2024	17	A	Augusta GreenJackets	1	1	3	12	4	0	0	100%	3.0	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	3.00	0.43	—
2025	18	MIX	2 levels	17	17	70	295	90	28	5	100%	4.1	22.3%	11.2%	11.0%	2.9%	3.09	4.26	—
2025	18	MIX	2 levels	17	17	70	295	90	28	5	100%	4.1	30.5%	9.5%	21.0%	1.7%	3.09	2.66	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	19	A+	Rome Emperors	15	14	68	298	68	32	4	93%	4.6	17.6%	12.3%	5.2%	1.7%	4.08	4.10	+0.5
ROS	19	MLB	ATL	13	13	65	274	67	29	8	100%	5.0	24.6%	10.6%	14.0%	2.8%	4.31	4.31	+0.3
ROS	19	MLB	ATL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	24.6%	10.6%	14.0%	2.8%	4.31	4.31	—
2026 TOT	19	MLB	ATL	—	—	133	572	135	61	12	—	—	23.7%	10.7%	13.0%	2.1%	4.19	4.20	+1.9
2026 FULL	19	MLB	ATL	—	—	0	1	0	0	0	—	—	24.6%	10.6%	14.0%	2.8%	4.31	3.93	+0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	20	MLB	ATL	27	27	124	526	130	51	15	100%	4.6	24.7%	9.7%	15.1%	2.8%	4.21	4.15	+1.8
2028	21	MLB	ATL	33	33	165	695	173	63	19	100%	5.0	24.9%	9.0%	15.9%	2.8%	4.11	4.03	+2.6
2029	22	MLB	ATL	33	33	175	739	190	62	20	100%	5.3	25.7%	8.4%	17.3%	2.7%	3.96	3.86	+3.2
2030	23	MLB	ATL	33	33	180	760	200	61	20	100%	5.5	26.4%	8.0%	18.4%	2.7%	3.82	3.73	+3.5
2031	24	MLB	ATL	32	32	180	760	205	59	20	100%	5.6	26.9%	7.8%	19.2%	2.6%	3.71	3.64	+3.7
2032	25	MLB	ATL	31	31	180	760	208	58	20	100%	5.8	27.3%	7.6%	19.7%	2.6%	3.63	3.58	+3.8
2033	26	MLB	ATL	30	30	180	760	209	58	20	100%	6.0	27.5%	7.6%	19.9%	2.6%	3.59	3.56	+3.9
2034	27	MLB	ATL	30	30	177	749	206	58	20	100%	5.9	27.5%	7.7%	19.8%	2.7%	3.59	3.60	+3.7
2035	28	MLB	ATL	29	29	172	726	199	57	20	100%	5.9	27.4%	7.8%	19.6%	2.8%	3.64	3.68	+3.5
2036	29	MLB	ATL	27	27	164	694	188	56	20	100%	6.1	27.2%	8.1%	19.1%	2.9%	3.74	3.81	+3.1
2037	30	MLB	ATL	26	26	154	652	175	54	20	100%	5.9	26.8%	8.4%	18.5%	3.1%	3.89	3.99	+2.5
2038	31	MLB	ATL	24	24	144	608	161	53	20	100%	6.0	26.4%	8.7%	17.7%	3.3%	4.07	4.19	+2.0
2039	32	MLB	ATL	22	22	133	562	146	51	20	100%	6.1	26.0%	9.1%	16.9%	3.6%	4.28	4.42	+1.5
2027	20	MLB	ATL	13	13	62	262	65	25	7	100%	4.8	24.7%	9.7%	15.1%	2.8%	4.21	4.15	+0.3
2028	21	MLB	ATL	25	25	120	507	126	46	14	100%	4.8	24.9%	9.0%	15.9%	2.8%	4.11	4.03	+1.9
2029	22	MLB	ATL	29	29	148	625	161	52	17	100%	5.1	25.7%	8.4%	17.3%	2.7%	3.96	3.86	+2.7
2030	23	MLB	ATL	30	30	162	684	180	55	18	100%	5.4	26.4%	8.0%	18.4%	2.7%	3.82	3.73	+3.2
2031	24	MLB	ATL	30	30	166	701	189	55	18	100%	5.5	26.9%	7.8%	19.2%	2.6%	3.71	3.64	+3.4
2032	25	MLB	ATL	29	29	168	709	194	54	19	100%	5.8	27.3%	7.6%	19.7%	2.6%	3.63	3.58	+3.6
2033	26	MLB	ATL	28	28	171	722	199	55	19	100%	6.1	27.5%	7.6%	19.9%	2.6%	3.59	3.56	+3.7
2034	27	MLB	ATL	28	28	168	709	195	55	19	100%	6.0	27.5%	7.7%	19.8%	2.7%	3.59	3.60	+3.5
2035	28	MLB	ATL	27	27	163	688	189	54	19	100%	6.0	27.4%	7.8%	19.6%	2.8%	3.64	3.68	+3.3
2036	29	MLB	ATL	26	26	156	659	179	53	19	100%	6.0	27.2%	8.1%	19.1%	2.9%	3.74	3.81	+2.9
2037	30	MLB	ATL	24	24	147	621	166	52	19	100%	6.1	26.8%	8.4%	18.5%	3.1%	3.89	3.99	+2.4
2038	31	MLB	ATL	23	23	137	578	153	50	19	100%	6.0	26.4%	8.7%	17.7%	3.3%	4.07	4.19	+1.9
2039	32	MLB	ATL	21	21	127	536	139	49	19	100%	6.0	26.0%	9.1%	16.9%	3.6%	4.28	4.42	+1.5
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			334	334	1895	7999	2135	655	228	100%	5.7	26.7%	8.2%	18.5%	2.8%	3.83	3.45	+43.3
/ 200 IP	—			35	35	200	844	225	69	24	100%	5.7	26.7%	8.2%	18.5%	2.8%	3.83	3.45	+4.6
Career	—			33	32	141	605	122	70	14	97%	4.3	20.2%	11.6%	8.6%	2.3%	3.57	4.10	+2.1
/ 200 IP	—			47	45	200	856	173	99	19	97%	4.3	20.2%	11.6%	8.6%	2.3%	3.57	4.10	+3.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cam Caminiti (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.31	24.6%	10.6%	2.8%	—	4.00	25.2%	16.2%	464	-0.31	—	—	—
Mitch Bratt L 2026 · 3.54 FIP	19	SP	3.54	21.8%	9.8%	1.9%	.302	3.49	22.0%	15.9%	294	-0.05	3.08	427	89
Thomas White L 2026 · 3.74 FIP	19	SP	3.74	22.2%	10.8%	2.1%	.332	2.97	29.6%	16.3%	99	-0.77	2.61	195	89
David Shields L 2026 · 3.45 FIP	19	SP	3.45	22.6%	9.2%	2.0%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	2.75	148	88
Robby Snelling L 2026 · 3.22 FIP	19	SP	3.22	21.6%	9.4%	1.4%	.300	3.74	23.6%	14.3%	274	+0.52	3.04	378	85
Connelly Early L 2029 · 3.30 FIP	22	SP	3.30	24.1%	9.8%	1.8%	.292	3.29	26.2%	17.0%	211	-0.01	2.52	315	82
Mason Molina L 2029 · 4.28 FIP	22	SP	4.28	22.7%	12.6%	2.7%	.276	3.56	23.3%	13.3%	69	-0.72	3.56	165	82
Jonathan Santucci L 2029 · 3.56 FIP	22	SP	3.56	22.6%	9.6%	2.1%	.294	3.49	24.7%	11.4%	80	-0.07	3.49	198	82
Mitchell Parker L 2028 · 4.03 FIP	21	SP	4.03	24.0%	9.8%	3.1%	.354	3.90	21.4%	9.8%	375	-0.13	3.73	694	81
Sam Weatherly L 2029 · 3.86 FIP	22	SP	3.86	24.0%	12.8%	2.1%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.28	3.86	189	81
Adam Seminaris L 2029 · 3.90 FIP	22	SP	3.90	22.7%	8.3%	3.0%	.357	3.75	18.2%	9.3%	230	-0.15	3.11	524	81
Jordan Wicks L 2029 · 3.89 FIP	22	SP	3.89	23.5%	7.9%	3.2%	.329	4.07	21.1%	12.8%	278	+0.18	2.93	431	80
Cade Povich L 2029 · 3.97 FIP	22	SP	3.97	23.9%	9.2%	3.1%	.293	3.99	23.8%	13.8%	414	+0.02	3.77	571	79
José Suarez L 2026 · 4.07 FIP	19	SP	4.07	23.6%	9.5%	3.2%	.325	4.36	20.9%	11.3%	221	+0.29	2.86	898	79
Matt Wilkinson L 2028 · 3.17 FIP	21	SP	3.17	28.5%	9.2%	2.4%	.252	4.28	21.7%	10.8%	166	+1.11	3.17	284	79
Cody Reed L 2027 · 3.26 FIP	20	SP	3.26	19.9%	7.3%	1.7%	.324	4.29	18.7%	10.3%	136	+1.03	3.26	212	78
Keegan Akin L 2029 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP	4.30	20.2%	12.5%	2.4%	.303	4.26	22.2%	10.7%	276	-0.04	2.54	743	77
Gage Jump L 2029 · 3.16 FIP	22	SP	3.16	22.6%	7.9%	1.8%	.286	3.32	26.1%	16.7%	87	+0.16	3.16	199	77
Parker Messick L 2029 · 3.84 FIP	22	SP	3.84	19.8%	8.7%	2.4%	.296	3.27	24.5%	15.9%	384	-0.57	3.21	506	77
Kyle Harrison L 2026 · 3.12 FIP	19	SP	3.12	26.4%	13.9%	0.9%	.364	4.29	27.4%	16.5%	338	+1.17	2.95	632	77
Will Dion L 2029 · 3.38 FIP	22	SP	3.38	22.7%	7.9%	2.2%	.285	4.06	20.6%	11.1%	332	+0.68	2.44	496	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	14	159	26.5%	8.3%	1.10	3.86
Lance Lynn ('24)	9	154	23.9%	8.1%	1.20	3.86
Jon Gray ('24)	10	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Rich Hill ('23)	9	104	25.0%	8.0%	1.12	3.65
Kyle Gibson ('24)	10	164	19.6%	8.3%	1.14	4.46
Joe Musgrove ('24)	9	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
James Paxton ('24)	8	106	25.8%	7.7%	1.12	3.89