Tyler Schweitzer

P Charlotte Knights

Age 26 LHP 6'0" / 185 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP40-MANROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX2 levels	25	25	132	4.02	3.15	24.6%	7.4%	—	K 19.6% · BB 8.3% · FIP 4.12
2025	24	MIX2 levels	27	10	100	4.61	4.40	18.9%	9.6%	—	K 15.8% · BB 9.3% · FIP 4.34
2026	25	MIX2 levels	43	4	89	3.83	3.98	15.3%	6.9%	0.6	K 13.8% · BB 6.5% · FIP 4.14
2027PROJ	26	MLBCWS	31	0	33	4.75	4.78	15.5%	7.6%	-0.1
2028PROJ80% MLB	27	MLBCWS	30	0	32	4.73	4.76	16.1%	7.7%	-0.1
2029PROJ84% MLB	28	MLBCWS	25	0	26	4.76	4.81	16.4%	7.8%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.6 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo43

K%10

xwOBA vs10

Form3.06 ERA (proj 4.75) · K 12.5% (proj 15.5%) · BB 6.9% (proj 7.6%) · last 90d · 18 IP through Oct 27

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 1.5, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 92%

CompsIrwin Delgado (age 26) · Dan Meyer (age 26) · Brian Duensing (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112120vR 129

ERA4.75

FIP4.78

K%15.5%

BB%7.6%

K-BB%7.8%

Proj IP44

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 44 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4394.0

Whiff%

p2221.3%

p1011.7%

xwOBA vs

p100.359

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	22	107	463	121	45	10	96%	4.7	19.6%	11.3%	8.3%	3.0%	3.94	4.50	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	22	107	463	121	45	10	96%	4.7	26.1%	9.7%	16.4%	2.2%	3.94	3.31	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	132	552	136	41	12	100%	5.3	19.6%	8.3%	11.3%	3.0%	4.02	4.12	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	132	552	136	41	12	100%	5.3	19.6%	8.3%	11.3%	3.0%	4.02	4.12	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	132	552	136	41	12	100%	5.3	24.6%	7.4%	17.2%	2.2%	4.02	3.15	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	10	100	428	81	41	13	37%	3.7	15.8%	9.3%	6.5%	2.5%	4.61	4.34	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	10	100	428	81	41	13	37%	3.7	15.8%	9.3%	6.5%	2.5%	4.61	4.34	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	10	100	428	81	41	13	37%	3.7	18.9%	9.6%	9.3%	3.0%	4.61	4.40	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	4	89	379	58	26	9	9%	2.1	13.8%	6.5%	7.3%	2.5%	3.83	4.14	+0.4
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	4	89	379	58	26	9	9%	2.1	13.8%	6.5%	7.3%	2.5%	3.83	4.14	+0.4
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	4	89	379	58	26	9	9%	2.1	15.3%	6.9%	8.4%	2.4%	3.83	3.98	+0.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			18	0	37	154	18	12	3	0%	2.1	11.7%	7.8%	3.9%	1.9%	3.13	4.14	+0.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	CWS	31	0	33	139	22	11	4	0%	1.1	15.5%	7.6%	7.8%	3.0%	4.75	4.78	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	CWS	38	0	40	167	27	13	5	0%	1.0	16.1%	7.7%	8.4%	3.0%	4.73	4.76	-0.1
2029	28	MLB MLE	CWS	29	0	30	129	21	10	4	0%	1.1	16.4%	7.8%	8.6%	3.1%	4.76	4.81	-0.1
2030	29	MLB MLE	CWS	22	0	23	98	16	8	3	0%	1.1	16.1%	8.1%	8.1%	3.3%	4.85	4.94	-0.1
2031	30	MLB MLE	CWS	16	0	17	72	11	6	3	0%	1.1	15.6%	8.4%	7.2%	3.5%	5.01	5.13	-0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	CWS	30	0	32	135	22	10	4	0%	1.1	16.1%	7.7%	8.4%	3.0%	4.73	4.76	-0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	CWS	25	0	26	110	18	9	3	0%	1.0	16.4%	7.8%	8.6%	3.1%	4.76	4.81	-0.1
2030	29	MLB CTX	CWS	19	0	20	84	14	7	3	0%	1.1	16.1%	8.1%	8.1%	3.3%	4.85	4.94	-0.1
2031	30	MLB CTX	CWS	14	0	15	63	10	5	2	0%	1.1	15.6%	8.4%	7.2%	3.5%	5.01	5.13	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		106	0	130	545	81	43	15	0%	1.2	14.9%	7.9%	7.0%	2.8%	4.33	4.40	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		163	0	200	839	125	66	23	0%	1.2	14.9%	7.9%	7.0%	2.8%	4.33	4.40	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		118	61	428	1822	319	163	50	52%	3.6	17.5%	8.9%	8.6%	2.8%	4.10	4.27	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		55	28	200	851	149	76	24	52%	3.6	17.5%	8.9%	8.6%	2.8%	4.10	4.27	+1.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAACharlotte Knights · 52 IPFIP 3.85 → 4.13 (+0.28)K% 17.8% → 15.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.78%	—	×0.860	15.29%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.22%	—	×0.900	5.60%
HR / BF /BF	2.67%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.93%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.85 → 4.13, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAACharlotte Knights · 50 IPFIP 6.14 → 5.69 (−0.45)K% 16.6% → 14.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.60%	—	×0.860	14.27%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.06%	—	×0.900	9.96%
HR / BF /BF	5.53%	÷1.320	×1.100	4.61%

Result: FIP 6.14 → 5.69, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AABirmingham Barons · 50 IPFIP 2.25 → 2.69 (+0.45)K% 21.8% → 17.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.76%	—	×0.810	17.63%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.77%	—	×1.100	8.55%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.784	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 57).

Result: FIP 2.25 → 2.69, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AABirmingham Barons · 86 IPFIP 3.18 → 4.02 (+0.83)K% 24.7% → 20.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.65%	—	×0.810	19.97%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.48%	—	×1.100	8.23%
HR / BF /BF	2.22%	÷0.935	×1.200	2.84%

Result: FIP 3.18 → 4.02, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 46 IPFIP 3.10 → 4.33 (+1.23)K% 24.6% → 18.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.61%	—	×0.770	18.95%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.33%	—	×1.150	8.43%
HR / BF /BF	2.09%	÷0.817	×1.250	3.20%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 63).

Result: FIP 3.10 → 4.33, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AKannapolis Cannon Ballers · 68 IPFIP 2.75 → 3.98 (+1.24)K% 26.5% → 19.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.48%	—	×0.740	19.60%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.32%	—	×1.180	8.63%
HR / BF /BF	1.74%	÷0.861	×1.300	2.63%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 72).

Result: FIP 2.75 → 3.98, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 40 IPFIP 4.23 → 5.34 (+1.11)K% 25.6% → 19.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.57%	—	×0.770	19.69%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.64%	—	×1.150	15.68%
HR / BF /BF	2.84%	÷1.017	×1.250	3.49%

Result: FIP 4.23 → 5.34, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tyler Schweitzer (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.0%	—	4.82	16.2%	8.4%	93	+0.04	—	—	—
Irwin Delgado L 2015 · 4.77 FIP	26	SW	4.77	14.4%	9.6%	3.0%	.349	3.53	16.2%	7.6%	237	-1.24	3.52	383	79
Dan Meyer L 2007 · 4.76 FIP	26	SP-	4.76	13.9%	11.4%	2.5%	.316	4.35	20.6%	11.8%	86	-0.41	3.73	112	76
Brian Duensing L 2009 · 3.98 FIP	26	SW	3.98	14.8%	8.4%	1.9%	.286	3.90	15.2%	9.3%	401	-0.08	2.57	799	76
Ben Holmes L 2018 · 4.02 FIP	26	SW	4.02	19.1%	9.3%	2.5%	.264	5.57	19.7%	8.6%	61	+1.55	3.09	451	76
Pat Misch L 2008 · 5.05 FIP	26	SW	5.05	16.5%	5.7%	4.8%	.268	4.53	10.8%	5.4%	100	-0.52	3.50	265	76
Matt Tracy L 2015 · 3.96 FIP	26	SW	3.96	14.4%	9.8%	1.5%	.306	4.10	14.7%	5.5%	208	+0.14	3.24	298	74
Yohan Flande L 2014 · 3.65 FIP	28	SP-	3.65	14.1%	5.8%	1.8%	.266	3.90	14.1%	7.9%	312	+0.25	3.18	394	73
Eric DuBose L 2003 · 3.92 FIP	27	SP-	3.92	14.4%	7.5%	2.0%	.233	5.49	13.7%	0.4%	104	+1.57	3.92	178	72
Brian Tallet L 2003 · 4.65 FIP	25	SP-	4.65	10.3%	9.2%	2.3%	.309	4.43	16.2%	4.4%	54	-0.22	2.59	443	71
Ryan Kellogg L 2019 · 3.99 FIP	25	SW	3.99	12.4%	5.8%	2.2%	.359	4.33	12.3%	7.1%	64	+0.34	3.65	446	71
Connor Oliver L 2024 · 4.34 FIP	23	SW	4.34	17.3%	12.1%	2.1%	.314	6.07	19.2%	3.4%	165	+1.73	4.34	244	71
Nick Dombkowski L 2024 · 4.92 FIP	25	SW	4.92	16.5%	10.9%	3.3%	.273	5.17	18.2%	10.6%	183	+0.25	3.71	425	71
Chris Reed L 2016 · 4.67 FIP	26	SW	4.67	16.4%	9.8%	3.1%	.238	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	137	70
Wesley Wright L 2010 · 4.85 FIP	25	SW	4.85	19.6%	8.8%	4.2%	.310	3.38	23.9%	16.5%	106	-1.47	3.03	375	70
Matt Walker L 2023 · 4.73 FIP	25	SP-	4.73	12.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.21	156	70
Brian Holmes L 2017 · 5.91 FIP	26	SW	5.91	15.5%	11.7%	4.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	205	70
John Rheinecker L 2006 · 4.14 FIP	27	SP-	4.14	8.7%	5.9%	1.9%	.364	5.13	16.7%	5.8%	50	+0.99	4.14	121	69
Austin Hamilton L 2019 · 4.02 FIP	25	SW	4.02	17.3%	7.9%	2.5%	.374	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	135	69
Chaz Hebert L 2017 · 4.46 FIP	24	SP-	4.46	15.6%	8.7%	2.9%	.260	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	167	68
Billy Traber L 2006 · 4.17 FIP	26	SP-	4.17	12.4%	5.9%	2.5%	.300	4.11	14.5%	8.4%	56	-0.06	3.75	211	68

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	32	15.1%	7.8%	1.12	4.47
Larry Casian ('90-'98, 0 WAR*)	1.2	40	14.7%*	6.8%*	1.25*	4.37*
Jeff Manship ('16)	1.1	32	16.5%	9.3%	1.05	4.82
Clay Condrey ('09)	1.3	42	13.0%	7.9%	0.90	4.10
Dave Leiper ('84-'96, 0 WAR*)	1.4	46	15.6%*	9.1%*	0.94*	4.28*
Tyler Walker ('10)	1.5	50	18.9%	8.5%	1.11	4.23
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*