Tyler Schweitzer
P
Charlotte Knights
+0.6
WAR
Age 25
LHP
6'0" / 185 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 0.9 · 2028
ERA4.77
FIP4.77
xFIP7.00
SIERA6.12
K%18.8%
BB%9.8%
K-BB%9.1%
IP110
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.9peak
2028
K†4545
FB+0.5 (33%)
CH (13%)
SL-1.5 (55%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 22 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | 23 | 22 | 107 | 463 | 121 | 45 | 10 | 19.6% | 11.3% | 2.9% | 3.94 | 4.49 | +1.0 |
| 2024 | 23 | AA | Birmingham Barons | 25 | 25 | 132 | 552 | 136 | 41 | 12 | 19.6% | 8.3% | 3.0% | 4.02 | 4.17 | +1.7 |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | 27 | 10 | 100 | 428 | 81 | 41 | 13 | 16.0% | 10.2% | 2.5% | 4.61 | 4.41 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 5 | 0 | 11 | 47 | 10 | 3 | 1 | — | — | — | 5.73 | — | — |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | CWS | 20 | 20 | 109 | 459 | 86 | 45 | 14 | 18.8% | 9.8% | 3.0% | 4.77 | 4.77 | +0.7 |
| 2026 Total | 25 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 120 | 506 | 96 | 48 | 15 | 19.0% | 9.4% | 2.9% | 4.86 | 4.33 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | CWS | 21 | 21 | 117 | 494 | 97 | 47 | 15 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 3.0% | 4.68 | 4.66 | +0.8 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | CWS | 22 | 22 | 120 | 508 | 101 | 48 | 15 | 19.9% | 9.4% | 3.0% | 4.65 | 4.64 | +0.9 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | CWS | 22 | 22 | 120 | 508 | 101 | 48 | 15 | 19.9% | 9.4% | 3.0% | 4.64 | 4.65 | +0.9 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | CWS | 21 | 21 | 118 | 497 | 99 | 47 | 15 | 19.9% | 9.4% | 3.1% | 4.66 | 4.68 | +0.8 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | CWS | 21 | 21 | 114 | 482 | 95 | 46 | 15 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 3.1% | 4.71 | 4.74 | +0.7 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | CWS | 20 | 20 | 110 | 465 | 90 | 45 | 15 | 19.4% | 9.6% | 3.2% | 4.78 | 4.82 | +0.6 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | CWS | 19 | 19 | 106 | 447 | 86 | 44 | 15 | 19.1% | 9.8% | 3.3% | 4.85 | 4.90 | +0.5 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | CWS | 18 | 18 | 101 | 426 | 80 | 42 | 14 | 18.8% | 9.9% | 3.4% | 4.94 | 5.00 | +0.3 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | CWS | 17 | 17 | 96 | 405 | 75 | 41 | 14 | 18.5% | 10.1% | 3.5% | 5.04 | 5.11 | +0.2 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | CWS | 16 | 16 | 90 | 382 | 69 | 40 | 14 | 18.1% | 10.4% | 3.6% | 5.16 | 5.23 | -0.0 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | CWS | 15 | 15 | 84 | 357 | 63 | 38 | 13 | 17.7% | 10.6% | 3.7% | 5.28 | 5.37 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 80 | 57 | 350 | 1490 | 278 | 145 | 42 | 18.6% | 9.7% | 2.8% | 4.22 | 4.31 | +3.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 33 | 200 | 851 | 159 | 83 | 24 | 18.6% | 9.7% | 2.8% | 4.22 | 4.31 | +2.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tyler Schweitzer (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.77 | 18.8% | 9.8% | 3.0% | — | 4.65 | 19.8% | 10.4% | 358 | -0.12 | — | — | — |
| Cade Gibson L 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.56 | 15.0% | 8.5% | 3.0% | .306 | 3.42 | 18.6% | 8.4% | 155 | -1.14 | 3.14 | 273 | 86 |
| Juan Pablo Oramas L 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.99 | 16.5% | 8.6% | 2.2% | .313 | 3.83 | 17.4% | 6.8% | 186 | -0.16 | 3.41 | 440 | 85 |
| Luis Leroy Cruz L 2025 · 5.02 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.02 | 16.0% | 10.1% | 3.6% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.02 | 116 | 84 |
| Patrick Monteverde L 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.48 | 19.9% | 10.9% | 3.1% | .267 | 5.77 | 17.9% | 9.3% | 216 | +1.29 | 3.88 | 455 | 84 |
| Matt Moore L 2027 · 4.14 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.14 | 21.9% | 7.8% | 3.5% | .323 | 4.53 | 19.7% | 11.3% | 475 | +0.39 | 2.83 | 845 | 84 |
| Dalton Sawyer L 2024 · 4.07 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.07 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.07 | 160 | 83 |
| Marco Tovar L 2027 · 3.78 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.78 | 17.1% | 7.8% | 2.1% | .323 | 4.69 | 13.0% | 6.1% | 120 | +0.91 | 3.78 | 327 | 82 |
| Charlie McDaniel L 2025 · 3.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.80 | 17.3% | 7.1% | 2.3% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 100 | 82 |
| Nick Maronde L 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.82 | 18.3% | 8.9% | 2.1% | .359 | 3.62 | 16.3% | 8.9% | 48 | -0.20 | 3.62 | 133 | 81 |
| Matt Lujan L 2027 · 4.09 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.09 | 15.5% | 10.0% | 1.9% | .326 | 4.80 | 16.0% | 7.6% | 119 | +0.71 | 4.09 | 227 | 81 |
| Bryan Radziewski L 2024 · 4.15 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.15 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 2.0% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 106 | 81 |
| Eric Wooten L 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.99 | 14.6% | 7.5% | 2.1% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | 116 | 81 |
| Chipper Smith L 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.81 | 15.6% | 9.5% | 1.5% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 109 | 81 |
| Justin Marks L 2028 · 4.59 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.59 | 15.4% | 10.5% | 2.7% | .323 | 3.91 | 19.0% | 9.1% | 216 | -0.68 | 3.82 | 324 | 81 |
| Luke Heimlich L 2024 · 4.21 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.21 | 18.2% | 7.6% | 3.1% | .350 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 118 | 81 |
| Danny Wirchansky L 2028 · 4.53 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.53 | 16.2% | 7.4% | 3.4% | .246 | 5.93 | 13.0% | 0.2% | 68 | +1.40 | 4.53 | 179 | 80 |
| Sam Garcia L 2024 · 5.14 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.14 | 18.5% | 12.7% | 3.6% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.14 | 101 | 80 |
| Misael Siverio L 2027 · 3.90 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.90 | 16.8% | 10.8% | 1.6% | .343 | 4.28 | 17.3% | 8.2% | 63 | +0.38 | 3.90 | 185 | 80 |
| John Michael Bertrand L 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.72 | 14.8% | 8.1% | 1.5% | .294 | 4.30 | 14.5% | 5.7% | 289 | +0.58 | 3.72 | 408 | 80 |
| Joe Miller L 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.28 | 16.0% | 8.0% | 2.8% | .294 | 4.27 | 19.6% | 6.3% | 11 | -0.01 | 3.78 | 295 | 80 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2027
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2032
First FA Year 2027
DEF 10%
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2027 | |||
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.8 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.9 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.9 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $2M | +0.8 | $4M | +$2M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $2M | +0.7 | $3M | +$0.9M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.6 | $3M | +$0.4M |
| Totals | $9M | $21M | +$12M | ||