Evan Shawver
P
Hartford Yard Goats
+0.1
WAR
Age 26
LHP
6'0" / 175 lbs
AA
peak 0.2 · 2026
ERA4.64
FIP4.64
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%20.9%
BB%10.8%
K-BB%10.1%
IP52
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2026
STUF4545
CTRL4545
CMD4545
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 21 | ROK | ACL Rockies | 4 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | Spokane Indians | 15 | 15 | 66 | 284 | 70 | 26 | 8 | 18.8% | 10.6% | 2.6% | 4.07 | 4.28 | +0.5 |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Spokane Indians | 24 | 4 | 50 | 237 | 49 | 34 | 7 | 15.9% | 16.5% | 3.6% | 5.94 | 5.80 | -0.5 |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | 36 | 6 | 50 | 209 | 50 | 29 | 2 | 19.4% | 15.3% | 1.3% | 2.90 | 4.09 | +0.5 |
| 2025 | 25 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | 36 | 0 | 53 | 243 | 56 | 23 | 7 | 18.7% | 10.4% | 2.9% | 5.30 | 4.44 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | COL | 52 | — | 52 | 217 | 44 | 25 | 6 | 20.3% | 11.5% | 2.8% | 4.78 | 4.78 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | COL | 51 | — | 51 | 216 | 45 | 24 | 6 | 20.6% | 11.3% | 2.9% | 4.74 | 4.74 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | COL | 50 | — | 50 | 212 | 44 | 24 | 6 | 20.8% | 11.2% | 2.9% | 4.73 | 4.74 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | COL | 49 | — | 49 | 208 | 43 | 23 | 6 | 20.8% | 11.2% | 3.0% | 4.74 | 4.76 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | COL | 48 | — | 48 | 201 | 42 | 23 | 6 | 20.7% | 11.2% | 3.0% | 4.78 | 4.81 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | COL | 46 | — | 46 | 194 | 40 | 22 | 6 | 20.4% | 11.3% | 3.1% | 4.84 | 4.89 | +0.0 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | COL | 44 | — | 44 | 187 | 38 | 21 | 6 | 20.1% | 11.5% | 3.2% | 4.92 | 4.97 | -0.0 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | COL | 42 | — | 42 | 178 | 35 | 21 | 6 | 19.8% | 11.7% | 3.3% | 5.01 | 5.07 | -0.1 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | COL | 40 | — | 40 | 169 | 33 | 20 | 6 | 19.5% | 11.9% | 3.4% | 5.11 | 5.18 | -0.1 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | COL | 38 | — | 38 | 160 | 30 | 19 | 6 | 19.1% | 12.1% | 3.5% | 5.23 | 5.30 | -0.1 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | COL | 35 | — | 35 | 149 | 28 | 18 | 5 | 18.7% | 12.3% | 3.6% | 5.35 | 5.44 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 115 | 25 | 223 | 986 | 178 | 127 | 26 | 18.1% | 12.9% | 2.6% | 4.45 | 4.63 | +1.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 103 | 22 | 200 | 886 | 160 | 114 | 23 | 18.1% | 12.9% | 2.6% | 4.45 | 4.63 | +1.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Evan Shawver (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.78 | 20.3% | 11.5% | 2.8% | — | 4.75 | 20.7% | 9.5% | 151 | -0.03 | — | — | — |
| Colton Johnson L 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.91 | 20.8% | 11.0% | 2.1% | .309 | 4.53 | 12.2% | -0.4% | 48 | +0.62 | 3.91 | 106 | 94 |
| Juan Grullon L 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.67 | 19.8% | 10.9% | 3.4% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.67 | 134 | 89 |
| James Paxton L 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.31 | 18.9% | 9.4% | 2.9% | .288 | 2.87 | 27.7% | 21.7% | 468 | -1.44 | 2.40 | 924 | 87 |
| Tom Windle L 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.54 | 19.0% | 11.8% | 2.8% | .269 | 4.35 | 17.2% | 1.8% | 74 | -0.19 | 3.66 | 330 | 86 |
| Will Gilbert L 2025 · 4.40 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.40 | 19.9% | 10.3% | 3.0% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.92 | 141 | 86 |
| Matt Purke L 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.28 | 19.1% | 13.9% | 1.9% | .284 | 3.54 | 21.4% | 8.8% | 112 | -0.74 | 3.00 | 226 | 86 |
| Michael Johnson L 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.26 | 21.7% | 9.5% | 3.2% | .272 | 5.26 | 13.4% | 3.4% | 67 | +1.00 | 3.88 | 256 | 86 |
| Brian Flynn L 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.82 | 21.3% | 11.1% | 2.0% | .258 | 4.38 | 16.6% | 8.2% | 198 | +0.56 | 3.82 | 277 | 86 |
| Dylan Phillips L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.27 | 16.9% | 10.3% | 2.4% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.64 | 172 | 85 |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2028 · 3.61 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.61 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .281 | 3.36 | 22.7% | 17.3% | 82 | -0.25 | 3.36 | 153 | 85 |
| Jeremy Horst L 2029 · 4.12 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.12 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 2.2% | .291 | 3.71 | 15.1% | 2.7% | 48 | -0.41 | 3.71 | 108 | 85 |
| Sean Mellen L 2024 · 4.01 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.01 | 21.3% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.01 | 101 | 84 |
| Andrew Magno L 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.50 | 22.1% | 11.9% | 3.2% | .341 | 3.23 | 22.5% | 10.1% | 66 | -1.27 | 3.23 | 275 | 84 |
| Triston Polley L 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.15 | 17.8% | 8.9% | 2.6% | .331 | 4.53 | 17.4% | -0.3% | 22 | +0.38 | 4.15 | 151 | 84 |
| Brad Kuntz L 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.09 | 20.9% | 11.7% | 2.3% | .352 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.35 | 197 | 84 |
| Mitchell Tyranski L 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.85 | 21.0% | 12.3% | 3.6% | .234 | 3.46 | 20.5% | 4.0% | 57 | -1.39 | 3.46 | 145 | 84 |
| Haylen Green L 2025 · 4.09 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.09 | 18.6% | 10.8% | 2.2% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 104 | 83 |
| Ben Holmes L 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.05 | 19.1% | 9.3% | 2.5% | .264 | 5.57 | 19.7% | 8.6% | 61 | +1.52 | 3.09 | 451 | 83 |
| Mason Melotakis L 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.59 | 21.9% | 10.9% | 1.8% | .264 | 5.75 | 12.0% | 0.6% | 30 | +2.16 | 3.29 | 142 | 83 |
| Braulio Lara L 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.98 | 16.7% | 8.7% | 2.2% | .367 | 5.21 | 18.9% | 3.9% | 67 | +1.23 | 3.98 | 118 | 83 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.