Connor O'Halloran

P Vancouver Canadians

Age 24 LHP 6'2" / 190 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	MIX2 levels	21	21	104	5.64	4.12	22.7%	10.6%	—	K 17.2% · BB 12.3% · FIP 5.09
2025	22	A+TOR	2	2	7	2.70	1.90	25.9%	7.4%	—	K 25.9% · BB 7.4% · FIP 1.85
2026	23	MIX3 levels	13	8	34	5.50	5.05	20.5%	16.8%	—	K 14.3% · BB 20.3% · FIP 6.36
2027PROJ	24	MLBTOR	—	—	0	5.73	5.73	17.1%	16.1%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBTOR	2	2	11	5.43	5.32	18.7%	14.1%	0.0

Next 2 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsErik Rivera (age 23) · Dante Biasi (age 24) · John Koronka (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126134vR 142

ERA5.73

FIP5.73

K%17.1%

BB%16.1%

K-BB%1.0%

Proj IP25

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 25 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	20	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	6	1	10	48	9	8	1	17%	1.7	18.8%	16.7%	2.1%	2.1%	6.30	4.77	—
2023	20	A RAW	Dunedin Blue Jays	6	1	10	48	9	8	1	17%	1.7	18.8%	16.7%	2.1%	2.1%	6.30	5.00	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	104	463	105	49	13	100%	4.9	17.2%	12.3%	4.9%	3.4%	5.64	5.09	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	104	463	105	49	13	100%	4.9	17.2%	12.3%	4.9%	3.4%	5.64	5.09	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	21	104	463	105	49	13	100%	4.9	22.7%	10.6%	12.1%	2.8%	5.64	4.12	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	2	2	7	27	7	2	0	100%	3.3	25.9%	7.4%	18.5%	0.0%	2.70	1.85	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	2	2	7	27	7	2	0	100%	3.3	25.9%	7.4%	18.5%	0.0%	2.70	1.85	—
2025	22	A+ RAW	Vancouver Canadians	2	2	7	27	7	2	0	100%	3.3	25.9%	7.4%	18.5%	0.0%	2.70	1.90	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	13	8	34	161	33	27	4	62%	2.6	14.3%	20.3%	-6.0%	3.5%	5.50	6.36	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	13	8	34	161	33	27	4	62%	2.6	14.3%	20.3%	-6.0%	3.5%	5.50	6.36	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	13	8	34	161	33	27	4	62%	2.6	20.5%	16.8%	3.7%	2.5%	5.50	5.05	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	TOR	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	17.1%	16.1%	1.0%	3.0%	5.73	5.73	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	TOR	4	4	25	105	20	15	3	100%	6.2	18.7%	14.1%	4.7%	3.0%	5.43	5.32	+0.0
2028	25	MLB CTX	TOR	2	2	11	46	9	7	1	100%	5.5	18.7%	14.1%	4.7%	3.0%	5.43	5.32	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		2	2	11	45	8	6	1	100%	5.3	18.7%	14.1%	4.7%	3.0%	5.43	4.94	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	150	112	19	100%	5.8	18.7%	14.1%	4.7%	3.0%	5.43	4.94	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		42	32	155	699	118	99	22	76%	3.7	17.0%	14.2%	2.7%	3.2%	5.53	5.23	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		54	41	200	904	153	128	29	76%	3.7	17.0%	14.2%	2.7%	3.2%	5.53	5.23	+0.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Vancouver Canadians · 22 IPFIP 4.71 → 5.57 (+0.85)K% 15.7% → 12.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.69%	—	×0.770	12.08%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.71%	—	×1.150	16.91%
HR / BF /BF	1.96%	÷1.000	×1.250	2.45%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.71 → 5.57, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ROKFCL Blue Jays · 10 IPFIP 5.67 → 7.95 (+2.29)K% 27.5% → 18.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.45%	—	×0.680	18.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	21.57%	—	×1.250	26.96%
HR / BF /BF	3.92%	÷1.000	×1.400	5.49%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.67 → 7.95, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Vancouver Canadians · 7 IPFIP 1.85 → 2.49 (+0.64)K% 25.9% → 20.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.93%	—	×0.770	19.96%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.41%	—	×1.150	8.52%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.855	×1.250	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.85 → 2.49, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Vancouver Canadians · 66 IPFIP 4.37 → 5.23 (+0.86)K% 19.6% → 15.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.61%	—	×0.770	15.10%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.76%	—	×1.150	13.53%
HR / BF /BF	2.61%	÷1.062	×1.250	3.08%

Result: FIP 4.37 → 5.23, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ADunedin Blue Jays · 37 IPFIP 3.48 → 4.81 (+1.34)K% 28.7% → 21.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.66%	—	×0.740	21.21%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.28%	—	×1.180	9.77%
HR / BF /BF	3.18%	÷1.003	×1.300	4.13%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 101).

Result: FIP 3.48 → 4.81, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ADunedin Blue Jays · 10 IPFIP 4.77 → 5.58 (+0.81)K% 18.8% → 13.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.75%	—	×0.740	13.87%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.67%	—	×1.180	19.67%
HR / BF /BF	2.08%	÷1.279	×1.300	2.12%

Result: FIP 4.77 → 5.58, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Connor O'Halloran (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.73	17.1%	16.1%	3.0%	—	5.32	18.7%	4.7%	25	-0.41	—	—	—
Erik Rivera L 2024 · 5.71 FIP	23	SP-	5.71	19.0%	14.6%	4.3%	.255	4.74	23.9%	6.3%	106	-0.97	4.42	141	84
Dante Biasi L 2022 · 4.91 FIP	24	SP-	4.91	18.7%	15.9%	2.5%	.288	6.65	20.1%	1.7%	69	+1.74	4.91	224	77
John Koronka L 2005 · 4.77 FIP	25	SP-	4.77	13.2%	10.5%	2.6%	.304	4.81	10.5%	2.2%	135	+0.04	3.99	151	77
Seth Lonsway L 2023 · 5.20 FIP	24	SP-	5.20	13.8%	15.3%	2.4%	.317	4.17	15.5%	4.7%	321	-1.03	3.35	506	74
Nate Savino L 2024 · 5.85 FIP	22	SP	5.85	16.8%	18.8%	3.2%	.244	4.83	14.9%	2.0%	130	-1.02	4.26	176	74
Bodi Rascon L 2023 · 4.92 FIP	22	SP	4.92	17.5%	14.5%	2.7%	.264	5.66	11.5%	-8.3%	43	+0.74	4.18	218	73
Dan Meyer L 2007 · 4.76 FIP	26	SP-	4.76	13.9%	11.4%	2.5%	.316	4.35	20.6%	11.8%	86	-0.41	3.73	112	72
Matt Imhof L 2016 · 5.68 FIP	22	SP-	5.68	15.9%	21.3%	2.2%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	5.13	131	72
Brooks Gosswein L 2023 · 5.61 FIP	24	SP-	5.61	15.2%	17.9%	2.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	5.13	165	71
Luke Fox L 2024 · 5.24 FIP	22	SP	5.24	21.8%	19.2%	2.8%	.284	4.16	21.4%	8.1%	125	-1.08	3.60	156	71
Bryce Hubbart L 2024 · 5.45 FIP	23	SP-	5.45	15.5%	13.8%	3.5%	.313	5.14	19.9%	6.3%	82	-0.31	4.79	194	71
Adam Loewen L 2008 · 6.87 FIP	24	SP-	6.87	13.7%	17.6%	4.9%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	2.96	340	70
Brett Adcock L 2019 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP	5.34	17.4%	13.6%	3.6%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	301	70
Jaime Arias L 2023 · 5.99 FIP	24	SP	5.99	17.5%	13.9%	4.8%	.333	5.33	15.1%	5.4%	54	-0.66	4.38	243	70
Brian Tallet L 2003 · 4.65 FIP	25	SP-	4.65	10.3%	9.2%	2.3%	.309	4.43	16.2%	4.4%	54	-0.22	2.59	443	69
Jack Snodgrass L 2015 · 4.66 FIP	27	SP-	4.66	12.6%	10.7%	2.3%	.278	5.01	15.7%	5.6%	45	+0.35	4.66	118	68
Miguel Cienfuegos L 2023 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP	5.12	13.6%	10.5%	3.4%	.257	4.54	14.3%	5.8%	242	-0.58	2.95	313	68
Andy Oliver L 2010 · 4.66 FIP	22	SP	4.66	17.6%	10.8%	3.1%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	187	67
Cionel Pérez L 2019 · 4.89 FIP	23	SP-	4.89	17.8%	11.8%	3.3%	.336	3.27	24.5%	13.7%	112	-1.62	2.67	517	67
Liam Sullivan L 2023 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP	5.78	25.7%	20.5%	4.1%	.290	5.79	20.9%	7.2%	141	+0.01	4.45	156	67

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	25	17.9%	15.1%	1.16	5.58
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*