Connor O'Halloran

Connor O'Halloran P Vancouver Canadians

Age 23 LHP 6'2" / 190 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.9 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION34 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113121vR 129

ERA5.07

FIP5.07

K%18.6%

BB%11.7%

K-BB%6.9%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 40 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$5M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.3M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-1	$0.8M	—	—	—
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$1M	+$0.3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	20	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	6	1	10	48	9	8	1	17%	1.7	18.8%	16.7%	2.1%	2.1%	6.30	4.77	—
2023	20	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	6	1	10	48	9	8	1	17%	1.7	18.8%	16.7%	2.1%	2.1%	6.30	4.77	—
2023	20	A RAW	Dunedin Blue Jays	6	1	10	48	9	8	1	17%	1.7	18.8%	16.7%	2.1%	2.1%	6.30	5.00	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	104	463	105	49	13	100%	4.9	17.2%	12.3%	4.9%	3.4%	5.64	5.09	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	104	463	105	49	13	100%	4.9	17.2%	12.3%	4.9%	3.4%	5.64	5.09	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	21	104	463	105	49	13	100%	4.9	22.7%	10.6%	12.1%	2.8%	5.64	4.12	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	2	2	7	27	7	2	0	100%	3.3	25.9%	7.4%	18.5%	0.0%	2.70	1.85	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	2	2	7	27	7	2	0	100%	3.3	25.9%	7.4%	18.5%	0.0%	2.70	1.85	—
2025	22	A+ RAW	Vancouver Canadians	2	2	7	27	7	2	0	100%	3.3	25.9%	7.4%	18.5%	0.0%	2.70	1.90	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	13	8	34	161	33	27	4	62%	2.6	14.3%	20.3%	-6.0%	3.5%	5.50	6.36	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	13	8	34	161	33	27	4	62%	2.6	14.3%	20.3%	-6.0%	3.5%	5.50	6.36	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	ROK RAW	TOR	5	3	10	51	14	11	2	60%	2.0	27.5%	21.6%	5.9%	3.9%	10.80	5.67	—
2026	23	A RAW	TOR	1	0	2	8	3	1	0	0%	2.0	37.5%	12.5%	25.0%	0.0%	0.00	1.52	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	TOR	7	5	22	102	16	15	2	71%	3.2	15.7%	14.7%	1.0%	2.0%	3.63	4.71	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	TOR	1	1	6	26	5	3	1	100%	6.1	18.6%	11.7%	6.9%	3.1%	5.07	5.07	-0.0
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	TOR	—	—	40	187	38	30	5	—	—	20.2%	16.1%	4.2%	2.6%	5.44	6.17	-0.7
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	TOR	17	17	96	404	80	43	12	100%	5.6	19.9%	10.6%	9.3%	3.0%	4.88	4.80	+0.1
2028	25	MLB MLE	TOR	17	17	97	409	84	41	12	100%	5.7	20.6%	9.9%	10.7%	3.0%	4.72	4.65	+0.3
2029	26	MLB MLE	TOR	16	16	97	409	85	40	12	100%	6.0	20.9%	9.8%	11.2%	3.0%	4.64	4.60	+0.3
2030	27	MLB MLE	TOR	16	16	95	402	84	39	12	100%	6.0	20.9%	9.8%	11.1%	3.0%	4.63	4.63	+0.3
2031	28	MLB MLE	TOR	15	15	92	390	81	39	12	100%	6.2	20.8%	9.9%	10.9%	3.1%	4.68	4.71	+0.2
2032	29	MLB MLE	TOR	15	15	88	372	77	38	12	100%	5.9	20.5%	10.2%	10.4%	3.3%	4.78	4.84	+0.1
2033	30	MLB MLE	TOR	14	14	83	350	71	37	12	100%	5.9	20.2%	10.5%	9.7%	3.5%	4.92	5.02	-0.1
2027	24	MLB CTX	TOR	7	7	41	173	34	18	5	100%	5.9	19.9%	10.6%	9.3%	3.0%	4.88	4.80	+0.0
2028	25	MLB CTX	TOR	11	11	64	270	56	27	8	100%	5.8	20.6%	9.9%	10.7%	3.0%	4.72	4.65	+0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	TOR	13	13	77	325	68	32	10	100%	5.9	20.9%	9.8%	11.2%	3.0%	4.64	4.60	+0.3
2030	27	MLB CTX	TOR	14	14	81	342	72	33	10	100%	5.8	20.9%	9.8%	11.1%	3.0%	4.63	4.63	+0.3
2031	28	MLB CTX	TOR	14	14	82	346	72	34	11	100%	5.9	20.8%	9.9%	10.9%	3.1%	4.68	4.71	+0.2
2032	29	MLB CTX	TOR	13	13	80	338	69	34	11	100%	6.2	20.5%	10.2%	10.4%	3.3%	4.78	4.84	+0.1
2033	30	MLB CTX	TOR	13	13	76	321	65	34	11	100%	5.8	20.2%	10.5%	9.7%	3.5%	4.92	5.02	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		84	84	502	2121	437	213	67	100%	6.0	20.6%	10.0%	10.5%	3.2%	4.74	4.37	+3.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	174	85	27	100%	5.9	20.6%	10.0%	10.5%	3.2%	4.74	4.37	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		42	32	155	699	118	99	22	76%	3.7	17.0%	14.2%	2.7%	3.2%	5.53	5.23	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		54	41	200	904	153	128	29	76%	3.7	17.0%	14.2%	2.7%	3.2%	5.53	5.23	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Connor O'Halloran (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.07	18.6%	11.7%	3.1%	—	4.68	20.4%	10.4%	289	-0.39	—	—	—
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	90
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	88
Bailey Horn L 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	19.7%	12.7%	3.6%	.300	4.64	21.9%	9.9%	152	-0.35	3.96	265	87
Matt Mikulski L 2022 · 4.92 FIP	23	SP-	4.92	19.4%	10.0%	4.0%	.360	6.03	16.3%	-2.8%	144	+1.11	4.92	223	84
Mac Lardner L 2021 · 4.75 FIP	23	SP-	4.75	18.9%	8.5%	4.0%	.332	4.34	17.5%	8.1%	119	-0.41	3.66	186	84
Hayden Wynja L 2023 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.05	4.74	154	82
Dominic Perachi L 2023 · 5.19 FIP	22	SP-	5.19	17.5%	13.9%	3.3%	.324	3.80	17.1%	6.8%	186	-1.39	3.33	277	82
Robby Ahlstrom L 2022 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP-	4.62	20.1%	9.0%	3.8%	.349	4.06	21.6%	8.6%	175	-0.56	3.74	330	81
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP-	5.03	16.0%	10.1%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	5.03	116	80
Cole Ragans L 2021 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	20.2%	11.2%	4.2%	.296	3.34	26.7%	17.4%	445	-1.80	2.48	623	79
Jaime Arias L 2022 · 5.00 FIP	23	SP-	5.00	15.6%	9.9%	3.6%	.332	5.54	15.7%	4.7%	77	+0.54	4.38	243	79
Thomas Ireland L 2023 · 4.64 FIP	21	SP-	4.64	16.7%	8.7%	3.4%	.286	3.80	17.3%	7.9%	201	-0.84	2.95	245	79
Max Fried L 2017 · 4.44 FIP	23	SP-	4.44	18.0%	11.1%	2.6%	.318	3.35	24.2%	15.8%	322	-1.09	2.56	1,435	79
Cole Kirschsieper L 2023 · 5.07 FIP	22	SP-	5.07	15.2%	12.0%	3.2%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	5.07	105	79
Christian MacLeod L 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	16.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.312	4.60	19.5%	5.2%	212	+0.08	3.90	277	79
Brett Adcock L 2019 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP	5.34	17.4%	13.6%	3.6%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	301	79
Brian Holmes L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	21.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.333	4.78	17.3%	8.0%	104	+0.46	3.60	205	78
Patrick Wicklander L 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP-	4.95	16.9%	8.8%	3.9%	.327	5.11	15.1%	0.1%	45	+0.16	4.88	254	78
Evan Grills L 2015 · 5.42 FIP	23	SP-	5.42	13.0%	8.6%	4.2%	.335	4.02	16.1%	11.6%	221	-1.40	3.41	309	77
Bryan Radziewski L 2015 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	16.4%	10.5%	2.0%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.15	106	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.6	90	20.4%	10.2%	1.21	4.78
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04