Connor O'Halloran
P
FCL Blue Jays
Age 23
LHP
6'2" / 190 lbs
ROK
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037
peak 1.0 · 2029
2026 ROS PROJECTION7 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 106115vR 124
ERA4.63
FIP4.63
K%21.4%
BB%10.2%
K-BB%11.2%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 72 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 20 | A | Dunedin Blue Jays | 6 | 1 | 10 | 48 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 17% | 1.7 | 18.8% | 16.7% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 6.30 | 4.77 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A | Dunedin Blue Jays | 6 | 1 | 10 | 48 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 17% | 1.7 | 18.8% | 16.7% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 6.30 | 5.00 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 21 | 104 | 463 | 105 | 49 | 13 | 100% | 4.9 | 17.2% | 12.3% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 5.64 | 5.02 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 21 | 104 | 463 | 105 | 49 | 13 | 100% | 4.9 | 22.7% | 10.6% | 12.1% | 2.8% | 5.64 | 4.12 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Vancouver Canadians | 2 | 2 | 7 | 27 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 3.3 | 25.9% | 7.4% | 18.5% | 0.0% | 2.70 | 1.85 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Vancouver Canadians | 2 | 2 | 7 | 27 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 3.3 | 25.9% | 7.4% | 18.5% | 0.0% | 2.70 | 1.90 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | ROK | FCL Blue Jays | 4 | 3 | 7 | 39 | 9 | 9 | 1 | 75% | 1.8 | — | — | — | — | 12.86 | — | — |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | TOR | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 59 | 28 | 8 | 100% | 5.4 | 21.4% | 10.2% | 11.2% | 3.0% | 4.63 | 4.63 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 21.4% | 10.2% | 11.2% | 3.0% | 4.63 | 4.63 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 72 | 313 | 68 | 37 | 9 | — | — | 21.6% | 11.8% | 9.8% | 3.0% | 5.43 | 4.18 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | TOR | 13 | 13 | 74 | 314 | 70 | 30 | 9 | 100% | 5.7 | 22.2% | 9.6% | 12.6% | 3.0% | 4.52 | 4.47 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | TOR | 13 | 13 | 75 | 318 | 72 | 29 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 13.4% | 3.0% | 4.43 | 4.38 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | TOR | 13 | 13 | 75 | 318 | 73 | 29 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.9% | 9.2% | 13.7% | 3.0% | 4.38 | 4.35 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | TOR | 12 | 12 | 74 | 313 | 72 | 29 | 10 | 100% | 6.2 | 22.9% | 9.3% | 13.6% | 3.0% | 4.39 | 4.39 | +0.4 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | TOR | 6 | 6 | 32 | 135 | 30 | 13 | 4 | 100% | 5.3 | 22.2% | 9.6% | 12.6% | 3.0% | 4.52 | 4.47 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | TOR | 9 | 9 | 50 | 211 | 48 | 20 | 6 | 100% | 5.6 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 13.4% | 3.0% | 4.43 | 4.38 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | TOR | 10 | 10 | 60 | 253 | 58 | 23 | 8 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.9% | 9.2% | 13.7% | 3.0% | 4.38 | 4.35 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | TOR | 10 | 10 | 63 | 266 | 61 | 25 | 8 | 100% | 6.3 | 22.9% | 9.3% | 13.6% | 3.0% | 4.39 | 4.39 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 35 | 35 | 205 | 864 | 196 | 80 | 26 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.7% | 9.3% | 13.4% | 3.0% | 4.42 | 4.01 | +3.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 192 | 78 | 25 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.7% | 9.3% | 13.4% | 3.0% | 4.42 | 4.01 | +3.3 | ||
| Career | — | 33 | 27 | 127 | 577 | 104 | 76 | 17 | 82% | 3.9 | 18.1% | 13.1% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 5.94 | 4.88 | +0.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 52 | 42 | 200 | 906 | 164 | 119 | 27 | 82% | 3.9 | 18.1% | 13.1% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 5.94 | 4.88 | +1.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Connor O'Halloran (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.63 | 21.4% | 10.2% | 3.0% | — | 4.40 | 22.6% | 13.2% | 225 | -0.23 | — | — | — |
| Jimmy Robbins L 2027 · 3.89 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.89 | 23.3% | 11.3% | 2.4% | .286 | 4.89 | 18.1% | 2.5% | 99 | +1.00 | 3.89 | 176 | 89 |
| Hayden Mullins L 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.33 | 23.4% | 12.4% | 3.0% | .288 | 4.01 | 25.1% | 10.7% | 150 | -0.32 | 3.72 | 239 | 88 |
| Matt Mikulski L 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.80 | 19.4% | 10.0% | 3.8% | .360 | 5.95 | 16.3% | -2.8% | 144 | +1.15 | 4.80 | 223 | 88 |
| Robby Ahlstrom L 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.49 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 3.5% | .349 | 4.18 | 22.0% | 8.2% | 175 | -0.31 | 3.65 | 308 | 86 |
| T.J. Sikkema L 2027 · 4.71 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.71 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 4.2% | .298 | 4.64 | 16.9% | 7.4% | 231 | -0.07 | 3.39 | 300 | 86 |
| Hunter Owen L 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.06 | 21.0% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .297 | 6.60 | 15.1% | 4.8% | 51 | +2.54 | 4.06 | 248 | 85 |
| Mac Lardner L 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.63 | 18.9% | 8.5% | 3.7% | .332 | 4.35 | 17.5% | 8.1% | 119 | -0.28 | 3.54 | 186 | 84 |
| A.J. Block L 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.68 | 22.8% | 10.0% | 2.3% | .262 | 5.86 | 20.1% | 8.4% | 51 | +2.18 | 3.64 | 203 | 84 |
| Brian Holmes L 2027 · 4.25 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.25 | 21.0% | 9.9% | 3.0% | .333 | 4.75 | 17.3% | 8.0% | 104 | +0.50 | 3.42 | 205 | 84 |
| Josh Trentadue L 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.63 | 23.1% | 12.0% | 1.7% | .249 | 4.99 | 21.5% | 9.2% | 48 | +1.36 | 3.10 | 196 | 84 |
| Cole Ragans L 2026 · 5.15 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.15 | 20.2% | 11.2% | 4.2% | .296 | 3.38 | 26.8% | 17.4% | 445 | -1.77 | 2.46 | 623 | 83 |
| Nate Peterson L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.40 | 18.4% | 11.4% | 2.6% | .284 | 4.47 | 17.1% | 5.8% | 213 | +0.07 | 3.67 | 288 | 83 |
| Hunter Barco L 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.51 | 23.4% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .275 | 3.79 | 22.7% | 10.5% | 150 | +0.28 | 3.51 | 212 | 82 |
| Evan Lee L 2027 · 4.00 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.00 | 24.2% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .333 | 4.48 | 21.0% | 2.7% | 52 | +0.48 | 3.84 | 129 | 81 |
| Adam Tulloch L 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.49 | 20.3% | 14.1% | 2.4% | .313 | 4.65 | 17.8% | 1.7% | 139 | +0.16 | 4.12 | 234 | 81 |
| Anthony Veneziano L 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.24 | 24.9% | 10.8% | 3.4% | .298 | 5.19 | 18.7% | 8.0% | 358 | +0.95 | 4.24 | 501 | 80 |
| Drew Parrish L 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.53 | 24.1% | 7.9% | 2.7% | .261 | 6.22 | 16.8% | 6.5% | 354 | +2.69 | 3.53 | 522 | 80 |
| Samy Natera Jr. L 2026 · 5.17 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.17 | 22.9% | 13.3% | 4.2% | .294 | 3.68 | 29.8% | 14.8% | 108 | -1.49 | 1.94 | 191 | 79 |
| Christian MacLeod L 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.36 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 2.4% | .312 | 4.46 | 21.0% | 7.7% | 184 | +0.10 | 3.84 | 249 | 79 |
| Brandon Knarr L 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.83 | 22.6% | 13.6% | 3.5% | .299 | 4.21 | 19.9% | 10.8% | 158 | -0.62 | 4.15 | 256 | 79 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 74 | 22.4% | 9.5% | 1.16 | 4.47 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Shane Greene ('21) | 7 | 56 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 1.16 | 4.67 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |