Luke Fox — OGILVIE

Luke Fox P Tulsa Drillers

Age 24 LHP 6'2" / 200 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.7 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION28 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117125vR 133

ERA5.25

FIP5.25

K%20.2%

BB%15.6%

K-BB%4.6%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 34 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$8M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL3535

CMD4545

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Arb-1	$0.8M	—	—	—
2033	Arb-2	$5M	—	—	—
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	14	38	157	45	22	3	88%	2.4	21.8%	19.2%	2.6%	2.8%	2.87	5.24	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	14	38	157	45	22	3	88%	2.4	21.8%	19.2%	2.6%	2.8%	2.87	5.24	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	14	38	157	45	22	3	88%	2.4	28.7%	14.0%	14.6%	1.9%	2.87	3.50	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	21	98	423	110	53	7	95%	4.5	20.5%	14.1%	6.3%	2.1%	2.85	4.31	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	21	98	423	110	53	7	95%	4.5	20.5%	14.1%	6.3%	2.1%	2.85	4.31	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	21	98	423	110	53	7	95%	4.5	26.0%	12.5%	13.5%	1.7%	2.85	3.41	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	10	9	28	108	35	10	2	90%	2.8	24.7%	10.5%	14.2%	2.3%	3.18	3.60	—
YTD	24	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	10	9	28	108	35	10	2	90%	2.8	24.7%	10.5%	14.2%	2.3%	3.18	3.60	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	ROK RAW	LAD	1	1	1	3	3	0	0	100%	1.0	100.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.00	-5.34	—
2026	24	AA RAW	LAD	9	8	27	105	32	10	2	89%	3.0	30.5%	9.5%	21.0%	1.9%	3.29	2.78	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	LAD	1	1	6	26	5	4	1	100%	6.1	20.2%	15.6%	4.6%	2.7%	5.25	5.25	-0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	LAD	—	—	34	134	40	14	3	—	—	30.0%	10.5%	19.6%	2.0%	3.54	3.89	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	LAD	15	15	89	377	78	52	10	100%	6.0	20.7%	13.7%	7.1%	2.7%	5.04	4.96	-0.1
2028	26	MLB MLE	LAD	15	15	89	377	79	50	10	100%	6.0	21.0%	13.2%	7.8%	2.8%	4.93	4.89	+0.0
2029	27	MLB MLE	LAD	15	15	88	372	78	48	10	100%	5.9	21.1%	13.0%	8.1%	2.8%	4.89	4.89	+0.0
2030	28	MLB MLE	LAD	14	14	85	361	76	47	11	100%	6.1	20.9%	13.0%	8.0%	2.9%	4.93	4.96	-0.1
2031	29	MLB MLE	LAD	14	14	82	345	71	46	11	100%	5.8	20.7%	13.2%	7.5%	3.1%	5.03	5.09	-0.2
2032	30	MLB MLE	LAD	13	13	77	324	72	41	11	100%	5.9	22.4%	12.7%	9.7%	3.3%	5.01	5.00	-0.1
2027	25	MLB CTX	LAD	7	7	39	165	34	22	5	100%	5.6	20.7%	13.7%	7.1%	2.9%	5.10	5.02	-0.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	LAD	10	10	60	253	53	33	7	100%	6.0	21.0%	13.2%	7.8%	2.9%	4.99	4.95	+0.0
2029	27	MLB CTX	LAD	11	11	68	287	60	37	8	100%	6.2	21.1%	13.0%	8.1%	2.9%	4.96	4.96	+0.0
2030	28	MLB CTX	LAD	12	12	72	304	64	39	9	100%	6.0	20.9%	13.0%	8.0%	3.0%	5.00	5.03	-0.0
2031	29	MLB CTX	LAD	12	12	72	304	63	40	10	100%	6.0	20.7%	13.2%	7.5%	3.2%	5.10	5.16	-0.2
2032	30	MLB CTX	LAD	12	12	69	291	65	37	10	100%	5.8	22.4%	12.7%	9.7%	3.4%	5.09	5.08	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		63	63	380	1604	339	210	49	100%	6.0	21.2%	13.1%	8.1%	3.1%	5.04	4.66	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	179	111	26	100%	6.0	21.2%	13.1%	8.1%	3.1%	5.04	4.66	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		48	44	164	688	147	101	16	92%	3.4	21.4%	14.7%	6.7%	2.3%	2.91	4.41	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		59	54	200	839	180	124	19	92%	3.4	21.4%	14.7%	6.7%	2.3%	2.91	4.41	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luke Fox (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.25	20.2%	15.6%	2.7%	—	4.91	20.9%	7.7%	267	-0.34	—	—	—
Jeremy Wu-Yelland L 2021 · 4.44 FIP	22	SP	4.44	19.6%	14.6%	2.1%	.266	3.90	20.3%	3.7%	33	-0.54	2.93	175	87
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	81
Dominic Perachi L 2023 · 5.19 FIP	22	SP-	5.19	17.5%	13.9%	3.3%	.324	3.80	17.1%	6.8%	186	-1.39	3.33	277	80
Doug Nikhazy L 2023 · 5.39 FIP	23	SP	5.39	21.9%	16.9%	3.6%	.304	4.73	19.6%	8.6%	256	-0.66	4.16	461	79
Dante Biasi L 2022 · 4.91 FIP	24	SP-	4.91	18.7%	15.9%	2.5%	.288	6.65	20.1%	1.7%	69	+1.74	4.91	224	79
Samy Natera Jr. L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.29	30.4%	16.9%	124	-1.85	1.94	208	78
Noah Dean L 2023 · 5.83 FIP	22	SP-	5.83	21.1%	28.1%	1.7%	.343	5.14	23.3%	4.2%	154	-0.69	4.41	217	77
Bodi Rascon L 2023 · 4.92 FIP	22	SP	4.92	17.5%	14.5%	2.7%	.264	5.66	11.5%	-8.3%	43	+0.74	4.18	218	76
Dalton Rogers L 2023 · 4.31 FIP	22	SP	4.31	25.3%	16.7%	2.2%	.327	4.58	19.6%	4.1%	268	+0.27	3.47	364	76
Christian MacLeod L 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	16.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.312	4.60	19.5%	5.2%	212	+0.08	3.90	277	76
Brett Adcock L 2019 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP	5.34	17.4%	13.6%	3.6%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	301	76
Sam Weatherly L 2021 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.0%	12.8%	2.5%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.07	4.07	209	74
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	74
Justin Steele L 2019 · 4.07 FIP	24	SP	4.07	20.0%	12.9%	1.8%	.400	3.71	24.2%	14.1%	203	-0.36	2.74	785	73
Michel Gelabert L 2019 · 4.36 FIP	22	SP	4.36	18.7%	12.1%	2.4%	.248	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	107	72
T.J. Sikkema L 2022 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	21.9%	9.0%	3.9%	.298	4.54	16.8%	7.5%	231	-0.01	3.57	300	72
Kevin Smith L 2021 · 5.54 FIP	24	SP	5.54	23.8%	16.5%	4.3%	.296	6.20	17.5%	1.3%	48	+0.66	3.26	248	71
Steve Hajjar L 2023 · 5.59 FIP	22	SP	5.59	17.4%	23.3%	1.8%	.231	7.00	15.0%	-10.6%	40	+1.41	3.67	141	71
Jake Eder L 2023 · 5.27 FIP	24	SP	5.27	22.1%	15.5%	3.8%	.344	4.94	18.6%	9.0%	217	-0.33	2.73	335	70
Miguel Cienfuegos L 2023 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP	5.12	13.6%	10.5%	3.4%	.257	4.56	14.1%	5.6%	242	-0.56	2.99	313	70

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.9	82	21.0%	13.4%	1.12	5.00
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99