Luke Fox
P
Tulsa Drillers
Age 24
LHP
6'2" / 200 lbs
AA
peak 0.6 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION20 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117126vR 135
ERA5.16
FIP5.16
K%20.2%
BB%14.9%
K-BB%5.3%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 84 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 14 | 38 | 157 | 45 | 22 | 3 | 88% | 2.4 | 21.8% | 19.2% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.87 | 5.14 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 14 | 38 | 157 | 45 | 22 | 3 | 88% | 2.4 | 28.7% | 14.0% | 14.6% | 1.9% | 2.87 | 3.50 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 21 | 98 | 423 | 110 | 53 | 7 | 95% | 4.5 | 20.5% | 14.1% | 6.3% | 2.1% | 2.85 | 4.33 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 21 | 98 | 423 | 110 | 53 | 7 | 95% | 4.5 | 26.0% | 12.5% | 13.5% | 1.7% | 2.85 | 3.41 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | 4 | 4 | 20 | 71 | 23 | 5 | 1 | 100% | 4.9 | 26.2% | 7.7% | 18.5% | 1.7% | 2.29 | 2.79 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | LAD | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 55 | 41 | 7 | 100% | 5.4 | 20.2% | 14.9% | 5.3% | 2.7% | 5.16 | 5.16 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | LAD | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 20.2% | 14.9% | 5.3% | 2.7% | 5.16 | 5.16 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 84 | 345 | 78 | 46 | 8 | — | — | 22.7% | 13.3% | 9.4% | 2.5% | 4.49 | 4.61 | +0.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 20.2% | 14.9% | 5.3% | 2.7% | 5.16 | 4.78 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | LAD | 12 | 12 | 68 | 287 | 60 | 38 | 8 | 100% | 5.7 | 20.8% | 13.3% | 7.6% | 2.7% | 4.98 | 4.91 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | LAD | 11 | 11 | 68 | 287 | 61 | 37 | 8 | 100% | 6.2 | 21.2% | 12.9% | 8.3% | 2.8% | 4.88 | 4.84 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | LAD | 11 | 11 | 67 | 283 | 60 | 36 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.3% | 12.8% | 8.5% | 2.8% | 4.85 | 4.85 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | LAD | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 58 | 35 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.3% | 12.9% | 8.4% | 2.9% | 4.89 | 4.92 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | LAD | 5 | 5 | 30 | 127 | 26 | 17 | 3 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.8% | 13.3% | 7.6% | 2.7% | 4.98 | 4.91 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | LAD | 8 | 8 | 45 | 190 | 40 | 25 | 5 | 100% | 5.6 | 21.2% | 12.9% | 8.3% | 2.8% | 4.88 | 4.84 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | LAD | 9 | 9 | 52 | 220 | 47 | 28 | 6 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.3% | 12.8% | 8.5% | 2.8% | 4.85 | 4.85 | -0.2 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | LAD | 9 | 9 | 55 | 232 | 49 | 30 | 7 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.3% | 12.9% | 8.4% | 2.9% | 4.89 | 4.92 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 31 | 31 | 183 | 774 | 164 | 100 | 22 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.2% | 12.9% | 8.3% | 2.8% | 4.89 | 4.50 | +1.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 179 | 109 | 24 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.2% | 12.9% | 8.3% | 2.8% | 4.89 | 4.50 | +2.1 | ||
| Career | — | 42 | 39 | 155 | 651 | 139 | 96 | 14 | 93% | 3.7 | 21.4% | 14.7% | 6.7% | 2.2% | 2.78 | 4.36 | +1.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 54 | 50 | 200 | 838 | 179 | 123 | 19 | 93% | 3.7 | 21.4% | 14.7% | 6.7% | 2.2% | 2.78 | 4.36 | +2.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Luke Fox (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.16 | 20.2% | 14.9% | 2.7% | — | 4.87 | 21.1% | 8.1% | 203 | -0.29 | — | — | — |
| Caden Grice L 2026 · 5.28 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.28 | 17.3% | 15.5% | 3.1% | .265 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 105 | 85 |
| Christian MacLeod L 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.83 | 21.5% | 13.6% | 3.3% | .269 | 4.13 | 20.5% | 7.4% | 96 | -0.70 | 3.84 | 249 | 79 |
| Cole Reynolds L 2026 · 5.26 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.26 | 17.3% | 16.9% | 2.7% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.81 | 108 | 79 |
| Jack Choate L 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.11 | 22.4% | 12.6% | 2.4% | .317 | 3.84 | 24.2% | 6.1% | 32 | -0.27 | 2.75 | 315 | 78 |
| Dante Biasi L 2026 · 5.06 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.06 | 18.7% | 15.9% | 2.8% | .288 | 7.16 | 20.1% | 1.7% | 69 | +2.10 | 4.88 | 224 | 78 |
| Brett Adcock L 2025 · 5.22 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.22 | 17.4% | 13.6% | 3.4% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.01 | 301 | 77 |
| Luis De La Torre L 2024 · 5.47 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.47 | 22.7% | 20.1% | 3.2% | .252 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.69 | 173 | 77 |
| Michel Gelabert L 2024 · 4.58 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.58 | 18.7% | 12.1% | 2.8% | .248 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.36 | 107 | 77 |
| Rio Britton L 2025 · 4.77 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.77 | 22.0% | 15.8% | 2.8% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.19 | 128 | 76 |
| Aidan Deakins L 2024 · 5.29 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.29 | 17.1% | 11.1% | 4.1% | .267 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 119 | 75 |
| Shane Drohan L 2026 · 5.30 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.30 | 20.1% | 13.8% | 3.9% | .308 | 3.29 | 25.5% | 16.3% | 142 | -2.01 | 2.91 | 484 | 75 |
| Zach Thornton L 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.22 | 20.9% | 10.1% | 2.9% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.95 | 221 | 75 |
| Evan Lee L 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.00 | 24.2% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .333 | 4.48 | 21.0% | 2.7% | 52 | +0.48 | 3.84 | 129 | 75 |
| Braden Davis L 2025 · 5.30 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.30 | 21.5% | 15.6% | 3.7% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.08 | 183 | 74 |
| Cameron Bishop L 2025 · 4.52 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.52 | 16.6% | 13.9% | 1.9% | .316 | 3.28 | 23.8% | 11.5% | 66 | -1.24 | 2.86 | 305 | 74 |
| Brian Holmes L 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.25 | 21.0% | 9.9% | 3.0% | .333 | 4.75 | 17.3% | 8.0% | 104 | +0.50 | 3.42 | 205 | 74 |
| Will Dion L 2026 · 5.01 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.01 | 19.7% | 10.9% | 4.0% | .309 | 3.25 | 22.6% | 14.9% | 148 | -1.76 | 2.44 | 496 | 73 |
| T.J. Sikkema L 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.71 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 4.2% | .298 | 4.64 | 16.9% | 7.4% | 231 | -0.07 | 3.39 | 300 | 73 |
| Jake Eder L 2026 · 5.24 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.24 | 22.1% | 15.5% | 3.7% | .344 | 5.09 | 19.2% | 8.7% | 217 | -0.15 | 2.73 | 335 | 73 |
| Connor O'Halloran L 2023 · 5.02 FIP | 21 | SP | 5.02 | 17.2% | 12.3% | 3.3% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.02 | 104 | 73 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 67 | 21.0% | 13.4% | 1.08 | 4.95 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |