Luke Fox

P Tulsa Drillers

Age 25 LHP 6'2" / 200 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.6 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1138ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	16	14	38	2.87	3.50	28.7%	14.0%	—	K 21.8% · BB 19.2% · FIP 5.24
2025	23	MIX2 levels	22	21	98	2.85	3.41	26.0%	12.5%	—	K 20.5% · BB 14.1% · FIP 4.31
2026	24	MIX2 levels	10	9	28	3.18	2.61	32.4%	9.3%	—	K 24.7% · BB 10.5% · FIP 3.60
2027PROJ	25	MLBLAD	1	1	1	4.85	4.85	22.4%	13.7%	0.0
2028PROJ32% MLB	26	MLBLAD	4	4	23	4.85	4.84	22.6%	13.1%	0.2
2029PROJ49% MLB	27	MLBLAD	5	5	32	4.82	4.84	22.5%	12.7%	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Arb-1$3M2034Ext$5M+1

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 1.7, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 91%

CompsHayden Mullins (age 23) · Caden Grice (age 22) · Erik Rivera (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109117vR 125

ERA4.85

FIP4.85

K%22.4%

BB%13.7%

K-BB%8.7%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$4M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.3M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Arb-1	$3M	—	—	—
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$2M	+$0.6M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	14	38	157	45	22	3	88%	2.4	21.8%	19.2%	2.6%	2.8%	2.87	5.24	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	14	38	157	45	22	3	88%	2.4	21.8%	19.2%	2.6%	2.8%	2.87	5.24	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	14	38	157	45	22	3	88%	2.4	28.7%	14.0%	14.6%	1.9%	2.87	3.50	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	21	98	423	110	53	7	95%	4.5	20.5%	14.1%	6.3%	2.1%	2.85	4.31	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	21	98	423	110	53	7	95%	4.5	20.5%	14.1%	6.3%	2.1%	2.85	4.31	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	21	98	423	110	53	7	95%	4.5	26.0%	12.5%	13.5%	1.7%	2.85	3.41	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	9	28	108	35	10	2	90%	2.8	24.7%	10.5%	14.2%	2.3%	3.18	3.60	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	9	28	108	35	10	2	90%	2.8	24.7%	10.5%	14.2%	2.3%	3.18	3.60	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	9	28	108	35	10	2	90%	2.8	32.4%	9.3%	23.1%	1.9%	3.18	2.61	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	LAD	1	1	1	4	1	1	0	100%	1.0	22.4%	13.7%	8.7%	2.8%	4.85	4.85	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	LAD	12	12	72	305	69	40	9	100%	6.0	22.6%	13.1%	9.5%	2.8%	4.78	4.77	+0.5
2029	27	MLB MLE	LAD	11	11	66	279	63	35	8	100%	6.0	22.5%	12.7%	9.8%	2.9%	4.75	4.77	+0.5
2030	28	MLB MLE	LAD	10	10	62	261	58	33	8	100%	6.2	22.4%	12.6%	9.7%	3.0%	4.78	4.82	+0.4
2031	29	MLB MLE	LAD	9	9	57	240	53	31	8	100%	6.3	22.1%	12.7%	9.4%	3.1%	4.87	4.94	+0.3
2032	30	MLB MLE	LAD	9	9	56	238	57	29	8	100%	6.3	23.8%	12.2%	11.5%	3.3%	4.86	4.85	+0.4
2028	26	MLB CTX	LAD	4	4	23	97	22	13	3	100%	5.8	22.6%	13.1%	9.5%	2.9%	4.85	4.84	+0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	LAD	5	5	32	135	30	17	4	100%	6.4	22.5%	12.7%	9.8%	3.0%	4.82	4.84	+0.2
2030	28	MLB CTX	LAD	6	6	38	160	36	20	5	100%	6.3	22.4%	12.6%	9.7%	3.1%	4.85	4.89	+0.3
2031	29	MLB CTX	LAD	6	6	39	165	36	21	5	100%	6.5	22.1%	12.7%	9.4%	3.3%	4.94	5.01	+0.2
2032	30	MLB CTX	LAD	7	7	42	177	42	22	6	100%	6.0	23.8%	12.2%	11.5%	3.5%	4.94	4.93	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		29	29	175	737	167	93	23	100%	6.0	22.7%	12.6%	10.1%	3.2%	4.89	4.53	+1.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	191	106	26	100%	6.0	22.7%	12.6%	10.1%	3.2%	4.89	4.53	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		48	44	164	688	147	101	16	92%	3.4	21.4%	14.7%	6.7%	2.3%	2.91	4.41	+2.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		59	54	200	839	180	124	19	92%	3.4	21.4%	14.7%	6.7%	2.3%	2.91	4.41	+1.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AATulsa Drillers · 27 IPFIP 2.78 → 3.60 (+0.82)K% 30.5% → 24.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.48%	—	×0.810	24.69%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.52%	—	×1.100	10.48%
HR / BF /BF	1.90%	÷1.000	×1.200	2.29%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.78 → 3.60, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Great Lakes Loons · 55 IPFIP 3.40 → 4.38 (+0.99)K% 26.3% → 20.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.34%	—	×0.770	20.28%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.76%	—	×1.150	14.67%
HR / BF /BF	1.65%	÷0.992	×1.250	2.07%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 98).

Result: FIP 3.40 → 4.38, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AATulsa Drillers · 43 IPFIP 3.40 → 4.20 (+0.80)K% 25.6% → 20.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.56%	—	×0.810	20.70%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.22%	—	×1.100	13.44%
HR / BF /BF	1.67%	÷0.957	×1.200	2.09%

Result: FIP 3.40 → 4.20, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ARancho Cucamonga Quakes · 31 IPFIP 3.95 → 5.24 (+1.29)K% 29.5% → 21.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.46%	—	×0.740	21.80%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.28%	—	×1.180	19.21%
HR / BF /BF	2.33%	÷1.072	×1.300	2.82%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 114).

Result: FIP 3.95 → 5.24, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKACL Dodgers · 7 IPFIP 1.44 → 2.23 (+0.79)K% 25.0% → 17.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.00%	—	×0.680	17.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.57%	—	×1.250	4.46%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.942	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 88).

Result: FIP 1.44 → 2.23, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luke Fox (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.8%	—	4.79	22.5%	9.7%	200	-0.06	—	—	—
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	79
Caden Grice L 2024 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP	4.33	23.1%	15.7%	2.2%	.282	5.05	17.9%	2.3%	83	+0.72	4.33	133	79
Erik Rivera L 2024 · 5.71 FIP	23	SP-	5.71	19.0%	14.6%	4.3%	.255	4.74	23.9%	6.3%	106	-0.97	4.42	141	78
Jimmy Robbins L 2023 · 4.69 FIP	25	SP-	4.69	17.8%	15.2%	2.1%	.290	5.73	19.6%	3.8%	13	+1.04	3.85	176	76
Christian MacLeod L 2024 · 4.77 FIP	24	SP	4.77	21.5%	13.6%	3.2%	.269	4.50	18.0%	3.0%	128	-0.27	3.88	280	74
Tate Kuehner L 2024 · 4.08 FIP	23	SP	4.08	20.5%	13.9%	1.7%	.275	3.85	20.3%	7.9%	164	-0.23	3.83	268	73
Justin Steele L 2019 · 4.07 FIP	24	SP	4.07	20.0%	12.9%	1.8%	.400	3.71	24.2%	14.1%	203	-0.36	2.74	785	71
Jason Blanchard L 2022 · 4.02 FIP	25	SP-	4.02	24.8%	14.2%	2.2%	.382	3.81	21.6%	10.9%	156	-0.21	2.44	171	71
Dalton Rogers L 2024 · 4.17 FIP	23	SP	4.17	17.7%	14.9%	1.2%	.324	4.76	20.4%	4.7%	185	+0.59	3.47	364	71
Ethan Small L 2022 · 4.07 FIP	25	SP-	4.07	22.5%	13.7%	2.1%	.278	3.87	24.5%	14.4%	51	-0.20	1.13	248	70
Adam Scott L 2021 · 4.53 FIP	25	SP	4.53	22.8%	11.7%	3.4%	.289	5.03	19.2%	4.2%	122	+0.50	4.17	315	70
Brett Adcock L 2019 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP	5.34	17.4%	13.6%	3.6%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	301	70
Hogan Harris L 2022 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP	3.71	27.4%	14.7%	1.9%	.274	4.46	20.9%	9.6%	328	+0.75	3.09	501	69
John Gast L 2013 · 4.15 FIP	24	SP	4.15	15.4%	9.6%	2.1%	.263	3.96	14.1%	6.2%	122	-0.19	3.96	134	69
Hayden Wynja L 2024 · 4.79 FIP	25	SP-	4.79	18.0%	10.5%	3.4%	.274	—	—	—	—	—	4.74	154	69
Joe Whitman L 2024 · 3.89 FIP	22	SP	3.89	18.6%	9.9%	2.0%	.303	3.65	19.8%	11.7%	252	-0.24	3.51	355	69
DL Hall L 2024 · 4.44 FIP	25	SP-	4.44	19.7%	11.6%	2.8%	.307	3.75	23.0%	9.9%	100	-0.69	3.49	548	68
Noah Dean L 2024 · 4.41 FIP	23	SP-	4.41	25.4%	18.4%	2.0%	.216	5.93	21.1%	1.3%	74	+1.52	4.41	217	68
Evan Lee L 2022 · 3.82 FIP	25	SP	3.82	23.8%	13.1%	1.9%	.319	5.38	17.2%	-8.1%	22	+1.56	3.82	129	68
David Peterson L 2021 · 4.46 FIP	25	SP	4.46	24.0%	10.1%	3.8%	.298	3.63	24.2%	14.2%	401	-0.83	2.81	1,078	68

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.9	62	22.6%	12.9%	1.15	4.81
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43