Jason Blanchard
P
El Paso Chihuahuas
+0.2
WAR
Age 29
LHP
6'0" / 185 lbs
AAA
peak 0.2 · 2026
ERA4.46
FIP4.46
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.8%
BB%10.6%
K-BB%11.2%
IP41
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2026
STUF4545
CTRL4040
CMD4545
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 25 | AA | San Antonio Missions | 6 | 4 | 15 | 62 | 19 | 8 | 1 | 24.8% | 14.2% | 2.3% | 4.80 | 4.05 | +0.2 |
| 2023 | 26 | AA | San Antonio Missions | 37 | 0 | 52 | 252 | 71 | 27 | 7 | 22.5% | 11.9% | 3.9% | 5.88 | 4.83 | +0.1 |
| 2024 | 27 | AA | San Antonio Missions | 41 | 0 | 61 | 260 | 72 | 23 | 0 | 22.4% | 9.7% | 0.0% | 3.71 | 2.44 | +1.7 |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | 32 | 1 | 43 | 195 | 44 | 23 | 5 | 19.9% | 12.4% | 2.9% | 6.70 | 4.57 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | SD | 41 | — | 41 | 173 | 37 | 20 | 5 | 21.2% | 11.6% | 2.7% | 4.63 | 4.63 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | SD | 40 | — | 40 | 168 | 36 | 19 | 5 | 21.3% | 11.4% | 2.8% | 4.63 | 4.66 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | SD | 38 | — | 38 | 162 | 34 | 18 | 5 | 21.2% | 11.4% | 2.9% | 4.66 | 4.71 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | SD | 37 | — | 37 | 156 | 33 | 18 | 5 | 21.0% | 11.4% | 3.0% | 4.72 | 4.77 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 33 | MLB | SD | 35 | — | 35 | 149 | 31 | 17 | 5 | 20.8% | 11.5% | 3.0% | 4.80 | 4.86 | +0.0 |
| 2031 | 34 | MLB | SD | 33 | — | 33 | 141 | 29 | 17 | 4 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 3.1% | 4.90 | 4.97 | -0.0 |
| 2032 | 35 | MLB | SD | 32 | — | 32 | 133 | 27 | 16 | 4 | 20.0% | 12.0% | 3.3% | 5.01 | 5.09 | -0.0 |
| 2033 | 36 | MLB | SD | 30 | — | 30 | 125 | 24 | 15 | 4 | 19.6% | 12.2% | 3.4% | 5.14 | 5.22 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 116 | 5 | 171 | 769 | 169 | 88 | 17 | 22.0% | 11.5% | 2.2% | 5.22 | 3.89 | +2.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 136 | 6 | 200 | 901 | 198 | 103 | 20 | 22.0% | 11.5% | 2.2% | 5.22 | 3.89 | +3.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jason Blanchard (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.63 | 21.2% | 11.6% | 2.7% | — | 4.71 | 21.2% | 9.8% | 115 | +0.08 | — | — | — |
| Jeremy Horst L 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.12 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 2.2% | .291 | 3.71 | 15.1% | 2.7% | 48 | -0.41 | 3.71 | 108 | 85 |
| Edward Paredes L 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.47 | 24.1% | 13.0% | 1.4% | .225 | 3.55 | 23.7% | 14.0% | 86 | +0.08 | 2.37 | 130 | 84 |
| Jose Meraz L 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.31 | 16.4% | 10.3% | 2.4% | .282 | 3.80 | 10.5% | -2.0% | 30 | -0.51 | 3.70 | 110 | 83 |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2025 · 3.61 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.61 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .281 | 3.36 | 22.7% | 17.3% | 82 | -0.25 | 3.36 | 153 | 82 |
| Josh Edgin L 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.63 | 22.1% | 13.2% | 1.3% | .359 | 3.83 | 23.2% | 13.6% | 80 | +0.20 | 3.62 | 113 | 81 |
| Tommy Layne L 2027 · 3.64 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.64 | 21.7% | 12.1% | 1.6% | .284 | 3.27 | 20.2% | 11.0% | 97 | -0.37 | 1.32 | 182 | 81 |
| Jeff Ibarra L 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.66 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 2.2% | .342 | 2.89 | 20.6% | 17.2% | 29 | -0.77 | 2.89 | 101 | 80 |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.68 | 20.2% | 9.6% | 3.8% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.70 | 175 | 80 |
| Yuki Matsui L 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.44 | 22.4% | 11.4% | 3.3% | .253 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.52 | 126 | 80 |
| Dan Runzler L 2027 · 3.78 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.78 | 19.0% | 13.1% | 1.1% | .383 | 4.03 | 16.5% | 4.0% | 63 | +0.25 | 3.78 | 127 | 80 |
| Buddy Boshers L 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.43 | 18.9% | 8.0% | 3.5% | .300 | 3.46 | 24.1% | 15.6% | 112 | -0.97 | 2.83 | 223 | 80 |
| Marlon Arias L 2027 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.30 | 16.8% | 12.2% | 2.0% | .330 | 3.73 | 17.2% | 9.5% | 22 | -0.57 | 3.73 | 154 | 79 |
| Josh Smoker L 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.62 | 22.1% | 8.4% | 2.4% | .318 | 6.63 | 14.2% | 3.4% | 14 | +3.01 | 2.70 | 230 | 79 |
| Sammy Solís L 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.44 | 24.9% | 9.6% | 4.0% | .330 | 4.07 | 26.2% | 17.3% | 23 | -0.37 | 2.50 | 190 | 77 |
| Keith Hessler L 2026 · 5.04 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.04 | 19.8% | 13.3% | 3.5% | .348 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.29 | 228 | 77 |
| Brandon Mann L 2029 · 4.73 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.73 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 4.1% | .320 | 3.99 | 19.0% | 7.6% | 128 | -0.74 | 3.59 | 190 | 77 |
| Dario Alvarez L 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.47 | 20.7% | 12.4% | 1.0% | .250 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 160 | 77 |
| Kevin Siegrist L 2025 · 3.74 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.74 | 25.0% | 11.6% | 2.3% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.75 | 176 | 76 |
| Brian Flynn L 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.49 | 17.7% | 10.1% | 2.9% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.82 | 277 | 76 |
| Mike Dunn L 2027 · 3.77 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.77 | 27.7% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .294 | 4.21 | 22.5% | 10.9% | 110 | +0.44 | 3.70 | 181 | 76 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.