Jason Blanchard
P
El Paso Chihuahuas
Age 29
LHP
6'0" / 185 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 58 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110119vR 128
ERA4.83
FIP4.83
K%20.3%
BB%12.3%
K-BB%8.0%
ROS IP58
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 58 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 25 | AA | San Antonio Missions | 6 | 4 | 15 | 62 | 19 | 8 | 1 | 67% | 2.5 | 24.8% | 14.2% | 10.6% | 2.6% | 4.80 | 4.24 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA | San Antonio Missions | 6 | 4 | 15 | 62 | 19 | 8 | 1 | 67% | 2.5 | 30.6% | 12.9% | 17.7% | 1.6% | 4.80 | 3.03 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 0 | 52 | 252 | 71 | 27 | 7 | 0% | 1.4 | 22.5% | 11.9% | 10.5% | 5.2% | 5.88 | 5.56 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 0 | 52 | 252 | 71 | 27 | 7 | 0% | 1.4 | 28.2% | 10.7% | 17.5% | 2.8% | 5.88 | 3.68 | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AA | San Antonio Missions | 41 | 0 | 61 | 260 | 72 | 23 | 0 | 0% | 1.5 | 22.4% | 9.7% | 12.7% | 0.0% | 3.71 | 2.44 | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AA | San Antonio Missions | 41 | 0 | 61 | 260 | 72 | 23 | 0 | 0% | 1.5 | 27.7% | 8.8% | 18.8% | 0.0% | 3.71 | 1.86 | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | 32 | 1 | 43 | 195 | 44 | 23 | 5 | 3% | 1.3 | 19.9% | 12.4% | 7.5% | 2.9% | 6.70 | 4.60 | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | 32 | 1 | 43 | 195 | 44 | 23 | 5 | 3% | 1.3 | 22.6% | 11.8% | 10.8% | 2.6% | 6.70 | 4.17 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | SD | 56 | 0 | 58 | 246 | 50 | 30 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.3% | 12.3% | 8.0% | 2.7% | 4.83 | 4.83 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | SD | 52 | 0 | 55 | 231 | 47 | 28 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.2% | 12.3% | 8.0% | 3.0% | 4.89 | 4.96 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | SD | 49 | 0 | 51 | 216 | 43 | 27 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.1% | 12.4% | 7.7% | 3.2% | 5.00 | 5.11 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | SD | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 17 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.2% | 12.3% | 8.0% | 3.0% | 4.89 | 4.96 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | SD | 27 | 0 | 28 | 118 | 24 | 15 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.1% | 12.4% | 7.7% | 3.2% | 5.00 | 5.11 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 46 | 0 | 48 | 204 | 41 | 25 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.1% | 12.3% | 7.8% | 3.1% | 4.95 | 4.67 | -0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 170 | 103 | 25 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.1% | 12.3% | 7.8% | 3.1% | 4.95 | 4.67 | +1.7 | ||
| Career | — | 116 | 5 | 171 | 769 | 169 | 88 | 20 | 4% | 1.5 | 22.0% | 11.5% | 10.5% | 2.7% | 5.22 | 4.16 | +2.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 136 | 6 | 200 | 901 | 198 | 104 | 24 | 4% | 1.5 | 22.0% | 11.5% | 10.5% | 2.7% | 5.22 | 4.16 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jason Blanchard (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.83 | 20.3% | 12.3% | 2.7% | — | 5.03 | 20.1% | 7.8% | 106 | +0.20 | — | — | — |
| Jeremy Horst L 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.06 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 2.1% | .291 | 3.73 | 15.1% | 2.7% | 48 | -0.33 | 3.73 | 108 | 92 |
| Keith Hessler L 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.73 | 19.8% | 13.3% | 3.0% | .348 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 228 | 83 |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.83 | 20.2% | 9.6% | 4.0% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 175 | 82 |
| Yuki Matsui L 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.82 | 22.4% | 11.4% | 4.0% | .253 | 4.48 | 23.7% | 12.6% | 46 | -0.34 | 3.80 | 172 | 81 |
| Aaron Brown L 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.34 | 17.4% | 12.8% | 2.0% | .275 | 5.22 | 21.3% | 8.8% | 66 | +0.88 | 3.88 | 269 | 80 |
| Dan Runzler L 2027 · 3.77 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.77 | 19.0% | 13.1% | 1.1% | .383 | 4.24 | 16.5% | 4.0% | 63 | +0.47 | 3.77 | 127 | 79 |
| Jose Meraz L 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.51 | 16.4% | 10.3% | 2.7% | .282 | 3.80 | 10.5% | -2.0% | 30 | -0.71 | 3.59 | 110 | 79 |
| Adam Loewen L 2028 · 3.90 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.90 | 25.1% | 15.9% | 1.7% | .287 | 3.58 | 23.2% | 7.3% | 98 | -0.32 | 2.96 | 176 | 78 |
| Buddy Boshers L 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.56 | 18.9% | 8.0% | 3.7% | .300 | 3.44 | 24.1% | 15.6% | 112 | -1.12 | 2.81 | 223 | 76 |
| Josh Smoker L 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.84 | 22.1% | 8.4% | 2.8% | .318 | 6.37 | 14.2% | 3.4% | 14 | +2.53 | 2.66 | 230 | 76 |
| Jeff Ibarra L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.73 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 2.3% | .342 | 2.95 | 20.6% | 17.2% | 29 | -0.78 | 2.95 | 101 | 75 |
| Ross Detwiler L 2026 · 5.34 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.34 | 14.2% | 12.2% | 3.5% | .356 | 5.01 | 14.1% | 5.9% | 242 | -0.33 | 3.47 | 512 | 74 |
| Bryan Harper L 2025 · 4.72 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.72 | 14.9% | 13.9% | 2.1% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.97 | 133 | 74 |
| Jimmy Reyes L 2025 · 4.73 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.73 | 13.8% | 8.0% | 3.2% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.00 | 200 | 73 |
| Mike Dunn L 2027 · 3.76 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.76 | 27.7% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .294 | 4.09 | 22.5% | 10.9% | 110 | +0.33 | 3.72 | 181 | 73 |
| A.J. Block L 2024 · 3.64 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.64 | 22.7% | 12.4% | 1.6% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.64 | 203 | 73 |
| Josh Osich L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.73 | 17.3% | 9.5% | 1.6% | .377 | 4.98 | 22.2% | 15.9% | 115 | +1.25 | 3.47 | 315 | 72 |
| Kevin Siegrist L 2025 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.00 | 25.0% | 11.6% | 2.8% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.67 | 176 | 72 |
| Justin Marks L 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.84 | 18.7% | 11.0% | 1.7% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.75 | 324 | 72 |
| Chasen Shreve L 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.98 | 24.4% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .269 | 4.53 | 23.9% | 13.0% | 108 | +0.55 | 3.94 | 470 | 72 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 55 | 20.2% | 12.3% | 1.15 | 4.90 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |