Jason Blanchard — OGILVIE

Jason Blanchard P El Paso Chihuahuas

Age 29 LHP 6'0" / 185 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 107115vR 123

ERA4.73

FIP4.73

K%19.6%

BB%11.3%

K-BB%8.3%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 5 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4040

CMD4545

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	25	AA MLE	San Antonio Missions	6	4	15	62	19	8	1	67%	2.5	24.8%	14.2%	10.6%	2.2%	4.80	4.02	—
2022	25	AA RAW	San Antonio Missions	6	4	15	62	19	8	1	67%	2.5	30.6%	12.9%	17.7%	1.6%	4.80	3.03	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	52	252	71	27	7	0%	1.4	22.5%	11.9%	10.5%	4.1%	5.88	4.95	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	52	252	71	27	7	0%	1.4	22.5%	11.9%	10.5%	4.1%	5.88	4.95	—
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	0	52	252	71	27	7	0%	1.4	28.2%	10.7%	17.5%	2.8%	5.88	3.68	—
2024	27	AA MLE	San Antonio Missions	41	0	61	260	72	23	0	0%	1.5	22.4%	9.7%	12.7%	0.0%	3.71	2.44	—
2024	27	AA MLE	San Antonio Missions	41	0	61	260	72	23	0	0%	1.5	22.4%	9.7%	12.7%	0.0%	3.71	2.44	—
2024	27	AA RAW	San Antonio Missions	41	0	61	260	72	23	0	0%	1.5	27.7%	8.8%	18.8%	0.0%	3.71	1.86	—
2025	28	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	32	1	43	195	44	23	5	3%	1.3	18.7%	10.6%	8.1%	2.9%	6.70	4.44	—
2025	28	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	32	1	43	195	44	23	5	3%	1.3	18.7%	10.6%	8.1%	2.9%	6.70	4.44	—
2025	28	AAA RAW	El Paso Chihuahuas	32	1	43	195	44	23	5	3%	1.3	22.6%	11.8%	10.8%	2.6%	6.70	4.17	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	29	MLB	SD	5	0	5	21	4	2	1	0%	1.0	19.6%	11.3%	8.3%	2.7%	4.73	4.73	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	SD	52	0	55	231	45	26	7	0%	1.1	19.6%	11.4%	8.2%	2.9%	4.80	4.87	-0.2
2028	31	MLB MLE	SD	49	0	51	216	42	25	7	0%	1.0	19.5%	11.6%	7.9%	3.2%	4.92	5.03	-0.3
2027	30	MLB CTX	SD	19	0	20	84	17	10	2	0%	1.1	19.6%	11.4%	8.2%	2.9%	4.80	4.87	-0.1
2028	31	MLB CTX	SD	27	0	28	118	23	14	4	0%	1.0	19.5%	11.6%	7.9%	3.2%	4.92	5.03	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		46	0	48	204	40	23	6	0%	1.1	19.5%	11.5%	8.1%	3.1%	4.87	4.58	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	166	95	25	0%	1.1	19.5%	11.5%	8.1%	3.1%	4.87	4.58	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		116	5	171	769	167	85	17	4%	1.5	21.7%	11.0%	10.7%	2.2%	5.22	3.90	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		136	6	200	901	195	99	20	4%	1.5	21.7%	11.0%	10.7%	2.2%	5.22	3.90	-0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jason Blanchard (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.73	19.6%	11.3%	2.7%	—	4.95	19.5%	8.1%	106	+0.22	—	—	—
Jeremy Horst L 2015 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	18.8%	11.2%	2.1%	.291	3.71	15.1%	2.7%	48	-0.38	3.71	108	93
Ryan Verdugo L 2015 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	19.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.281	3.36	22.7%	17.3%	82	-0.25	3.36	153	88
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	84
Keith Hessler L 2018 · 4.96 FIP	29	SU	4.96	19.8%	13.3%	3.4%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	228	81
Jose Meraz L 2017 · 4.34 FIP	29	SU	4.34	16.4%	10.3%	2.4%	.282	3.80	10.5%	-2.0%	30	-0.54	3.78	110	80
Dan Runzler L 2015 · 3.78 FIP	30	SU	3.78	19.0%	13.1%	1.2%	.383	4.07	16.5%	4.0%	63	+0.29	3.78	127	79
Aaron Brown L 2021 · 4.13 FIP	29	SU	4.13	17.4%	12.8%	1.6%	.275	5.38	21.3%	8.8%	66	+1.25	4.04	269	79
Buddy Boshers L 2017 · 4.56 FIP	29	SU	4.56	18.9%	8.0%	3.7%	.300	3.47	24.1%	15.6%	112	-1.09	2.80	223	78
Jeff Ibarra L 2017 · 3.64 FIP	29	SU	3.64	18.1%	7.0%	2.1%	.342	2.85	20.6%	17.2%	29	-0.79	2.85	101	78
Josh Edgin L 2016 · 3.64 FIP	29	SU	3.64	22.1%	13.2%	1.3%	.359	3.81	23.2%	13.6%	80	+0.17	3.63	113	77
Tommy Layne L 2015 · 3.61 FIP	30	SU	3.61	21.7%	12.1%	1.5%	.284	3.34	20.2%	11.0%	97	-0.27	1.32	182	77
Josh Smoker L 2018 · 3.66 FIP	29	SU	3.66	22.1%	8.4%	2.5%	.318	6.58	14.2%	3.4%	14	+2.92	2.71	230	76
Jimmy Reyes L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	28	SU	4.92	13.8%	8.0%	3.6%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.02	200	75
Adam Loewen L 2015 · 3.84 FIP	31	SU	3.84	25.1%	15.9%	1.6%	.287	3.63	23.2%	7.3%	98	-0.21	2.96	176	75
Ross Detwiler L 2015 · 5.50 FIP	29	SW	5.50	14.2%	12.2%	3.8%	.356	4.80	14.1%	5.9%	242	-0.70	3.49	512	74
Bryan Harper L 2018 · 4.63 FIP	28	SU	4.63	14.9%	13.9%	1.9%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	4.13	133	73
Justin Marks L 2017 · 3.83 FIP	29	SW	3.83	18.7%	11.0%	1.7%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.83	324	73
Jake McGee L 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SU	4.60	18.5%	7.3%	3.9%	.329	3.93	22.1%	15.6%	150	-0.67	1.39	350	72
Mike Dunn L 2015 · 3.75 FIP	30	SU	3.75	27.7%	11.9%	2.7%	.294	4.21	22.5%	10.9%	110	+0.46	3.71	181	72
Kraig Sitton L 2017 · 3.87 FIP	29	SU	3.87	14.7%	6.1%	2.2%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	166	72

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	55	19.6%	11.4%	1.13	4.81
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21