Jason Blanchard

P El Paso Chihuahuas

Age 30 LHP 6'0" / 185 lbs AAA

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	26	MIX2 levels	37	0	52	5.88	3.68	28.2%	10.7%	—	K 22.5% · BB 11.9% · FIP 4.95
2024	27	AASD	41	0	61	3.71	1.86	27.7%	8.8%	—	K 22.4% · BB 9.7% · FIP 2.44
2025	28	AAASD	32	1	43	6.70	4.17	22.6%	11.8%	—	K 19.4% · BB 10.6% · FIP 4.38
2026	29	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	30	MLBSD	6	0	6	4.77	4.77	19.8%	11.1%	-0.0
2028PROJ37% MLB	31	MLBSD	15	0	16	4.85	4.93	19.8%	11.2%	-0.1
2029PROJ55% MLB	32	MLBSD	18	0	19	4.99	5.11	19.6%	11.5%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control40Command45

CompsRaul Valdes (age 32) · Andrew Barbosa (age 29) · Jack Taschner (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 108116vR 124

ERA4.77

FIP4.77

K%19.8%

BB%11.1%

K-BB%8.7%

Proj IP58

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 58 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4040

CMD4545

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	25	AA MLE	San Antonio Missions	6	4	15	62	19	8	1	67%	2.5	24.8%	14.2%	10.6%	2.2%	4.80	4.02	—
2022	25	AA RAW	San Antonio Missions	6	4	15	62	19	8	1	67%	2.5	30.6%	12.9%	17.7%	1.6%	4.80	3.03	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	52	252	71	27	7	0%	1.4	22.5%	11.9%	10.5%	4.1%	5.88	4.95	—
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	0	52	252	71	27	7	0%	1.4	28.2%	10.7%	17.5%	2.8%	5.88	3.68	—
2024	27	AA MLE	San Antonio Missions	41	0	61	260	72	23	0	0%	1.5	22.4%	9.7%	12.7%	0.0%	3.71	2.44	—
2024	27	AA MLE	San Antonio Missions	41	0	61	260	72	23	0	0%	1.5	22.4%	9.7%	12.7%	0.0%	3.71	2.44	—
2024	27	AA RAW	San Antonio Missions	41	0	61	260	72	23	0	0%	1.5	27.7%	8.8%	18.8%	0.0%	3.71	1.86	—
2025	28	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	32	1	43	195	44	23	5	3%	1.3	19.4%	10.6%	8.8%	2.9%	6.70	4.38	—
2025	28	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	32	1	43	195	44	23	5	3%	1.3	19.4%	10.6%	8.8%	2.9%	6.70	4.38	—
2025	28	AAA RAW	El Paso Chihuahuas	32	1	43	195	44	23	5	3%	1.3	22.6%	11.8%	10.8%	2.6%	6.70	4.17	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	SD	6	0	6	25	5	3	1	0%	1.0	19.8%	11.1%	8.7%	2.8%	4.77	4.77	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	SD	41	0	43	180	36	20	6	0%	1.0	19.8%	11.2%	8.5%	3.1%	4.85	4.93	-0.2
2029	32	MLB MLE	SD	33	0	34	146	29	17	5	0%	1.0	19.6%	11.5%	8.1%	3.3%	4.99	5.11	-0.2
2028	31	MLB CTX	SD	15	0	16	68	13	8	2	0%	1.1	19.8%	11.2%	8.5%	3.1%	4.85	4.93	-0.1
2029	32	MLB CTX	SD	18	0	19	80	16	9	3	0%	1.1	19.6%	11.5%	8.1%	3.3%	4.99	5.11	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		33	0	35	147	29	17	5	0%	1.1	19.7%	11.4%	8.3%	3.2%	4.93	4.65	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	167	98	29	0%	1.1	19.7%	11.4%	8.3%	3.2%	4.93	4.65	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		116	5	171	769	168	85	17	4%	1.5	21.9%	11.0%	10.8%	2.2%	5.22	3.88	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		136	6	200	901	197	99	20	4%	1.5	21.9%	11.0%	10.8%	2.2%	5.22	3.88	-1.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 43 IPFIP 4.10 → 4.38 (+0.29)K% 22.6% → 19.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.56%	—	×0.860	19.41%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.79%	—	×0.900	10.62%
HR / BF /BF	2.56%	÷0.981	×1.100	2.87%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 96).

Result: FIP 4.10 → 4.38, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AASan Antonio Missions · 61 IPFIP 1.88 → 2.44 (+0.56)K% 27.7% → 22.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.69%	—	×0.810	22.43%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.85%	—	×1.100	9.73%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.953	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 91).

Result: FIP 1.88 → 2.44, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AASan Antonio Missions · 37 IPFIP 3.99 → 5.38 (+1.38)K% 26.1% → 21.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.09%	—	×0.810	21.13%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.33%	—	×1.100	11.36%
HR / BF /BF	3.26%	÷0.820	×1.200	4.77%

Result: FIP 3.99 → 5.38, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Fort Wayne TinCaps · 15 IPFIP 2.54 → 3.80 (+1.26)K% 33.8% → 26.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.82%	—	×0.770	26.04%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.76%	—	×1.150	13.53%
HR / BF /BF	1.47%	÷0.848	×1.250	2.17%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 70).

Result: FIP 2.54 → 3.80, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AASan Antonio Missions · 15 IPFIP 3.03 → 4.02 (+0.99)K% 30.6% → 24.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.65%	—	×0.810	24.82%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.90%	—	×1.100	14.19%
HR / BF /BF	1.61%	÷0.870	×1.200	2.22%

Result: FIP 3.03 → 4.02, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jason Blanchard (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.77	19.8%	11.1%	2.8%	—	5.01	19.7%	8.3%	77	+0.24	—	—	—
Raul Valdes L 2010 · 4.02 FIP	32	SU	4.02	21.4%	9.9%	2.7%	.301	3.14	27.4%	22.5%	78	-0.88	2.29	160	92
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	83
Jack Taschner L 2008 · 4.09 FIP	30	SU	4.09	17.2%	9.7%	2.2%	.323	4.73	15.2%	3.0%	49	+0.64	3.14	189	78
Keith Hessler L 2018 · 4.96 FIP	29	SU	4.96	19.8%	13.3%	3.4%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	228	78
Jose Meraz L 2017 · 4.34 FIP	29	SU	4.34	16.4%	10.3%	2.4%	.282	3.80	10.5%	-2.0%	30	-0.54	3.78	110	77
Jeff Ibarra L 2017 · 3.64 FIP	29	SU	3.64	18.1%	7.0%	2.1%	.342	2.85	20.6%	17.2%	29	-0.79	2.85	101	77
Ryan O'Rourke L 2019 · 4.08 FIP	31	SU	4.08	22.1%	14.3%	1.9%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	145	76
Juan Pablo Perez L 2007 · 5.32 FIP	28	SU	5.32	17.5%	14.0%	3.5%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	1.75	104	75
James Jones L 2019 · 4.28 FIP	30	SU	4.28	21.9%	13.0%	2.5%	.230	4.65	23.9%	8.8%	35	+0.37	3.58	127	74
Brian Shouse L 2002 · 5.54 FIP	33	SU	5.54	15.5%	11.3%	4.2%	.245	3.31	16.3%	10.7%	159	-2.23	2.32	339	74
Aaron Brown L 2022 · 5.38 FIP	30	SU	5.38	21.3%	12.5%	4.5%	.253	—	—	—	—	—	4.04	269	74
Kelly Wunsch L 2002 · 4.60 FIP	30	SU	4.60	15.9%	13.0%	2.2%	.242	3.54	20.8%	8.3%	60	-1.06	3.36	175	74
Armando Almanza L 2003 · 4.95 FIP	30	SU	4.95	21.3%	10.0%	4.3%	.331	5.29	24.1%	14.8%	12	+0.34	2.90	211	73
Jimmy Reyes L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	28	SU	4.92	13.8%	8.0%	3.6%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.02	200	73
Tom Martin L 2000 · 4.16 FIP	30	SU	4.16	14.7%	9.1%	2.1%	.274	4.29	21.8%	12.3%	68	+0.12	3.40	303	73
Nick Hagadone L 2015 · 3.65 FIP	29	SU	3.65	22.6%	8.9%	2.4%	.329	3.74	22.6%	13.3%	33	+0.09	2.97	141	72
Buddy Baumann L 2018 · 4.87 FIP	30	SU	4.87	20.5%	11.9%	3.6%	.258	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	155	72
Valerio De Los Santos L 2003 · 4.97 FIP	30	SU	4.97	17.1%	11.0%	3.5%	.237	4.47	16.3%	5.7%	34	-0.50	3.40	239	71
Justin Marks L 2017 · 3.83 FIP	29	SW	3.83	18.7%	11.0%	1.7%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.83	324	71
Josh Edgin L 2017 · 4.02 FIP	30	SU	4.02	16.3%	10.2%	1.8%	.303	3.63	29.2%	20.0%	43	-0.39	2.62	195	71

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	45	19.7%	11.2%	1.18	4.85
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*