Noah Dean
P
Greenville Drive
+0.0
WAR
Age 25
LHP
6'2" / 185 lbs
A+
peak 0.1 · 2027
ERA5.00
FIP5.00
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.8%
BB%14.4%
K-BB%8.5%
IP68
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2027
STUF5050
CTRL2020
CMD4040
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 22 | A | Salem Red Sox | 21 | 17 | 63 | 302 | 86 | 72 | 4 | 21.1% | 28.1% | 1.7% | 6.29 | 5.83 | -0.6 |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ | Greenville Drive | 22 | 15 | 80 | 342 | 116 | 54 | 5 | 25.4% | 18.4% | 2.0% | 4.52 | 4.39 | +0.7 |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | 23 | 15 | 66 | 305 | 82 | 49 | 9 | 21.1% | 18.6% | 3.5% | 5.45 | 5.60 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | BOS | 12 | 12 | 68 | 288 | 66 | 48 | 9 | 22.8% | 16.7% | 3.0% | 5.29 | 5.29 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | BOS | 12 | 12 | 68 | 288 | 67 | 46 | 9 | 23.1% | 15.9% | 3.0% | 5.18 | 5.17 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | BOS | 12 | 12 | 68 | 286 | 66 | 44 | 9 | 23.2% | 15.4% | 3.0% | 5.11 | 5.11 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | BOS | 12 | 12 | 67 | 282 | 65 | 43 | 8 | 23.1% | 15.1% | 3.0% | 5.09 | 5.10 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | BOS | 12 | 12 | 65 | 275 | 63 | 41 | 8 | 23.0% | 15.1% | 3.1% | 5.10 | 5.13 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | BOS | 11 | 11 | 63 | 267 | 61 | 40 | 8 | 22.8% | 15.2% | 3.1% | 5.15 | 5.19 | -0.2 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | BOS | 11 | 11 | 61 | 258 | 58 | 39 | 8 | 22.6% | 15.3% | 3.2% | 5.22 | 5.26 | -0.2 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | BOS | 59 | — | 59 | 247 | 55 | 38 | 8 | 22.3% | 15.4% | 3.3% | 5.30 | 5.35 | -0.3 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | BOS | 56 | — | 56 | 236 | 52 | 37 | 8 | 22.0% | 15.6% | 3.4% | 5.39 | 5.45 | -0.3 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | BOS | 53 | — | 53 | 225 | 49 | 36 | 8 | 21.6% | 15.8% | 3.5% | 5.49 | 5.56 | -0.4 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | BOS | 50 | — | 50 | 212 | 45 | 34 | 8 | 21.2% | 16.1% | 3.6% | 5.60 | 5.68 | -0.4 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | BOS | 47 | — | 47 | 198 | 41 | 32 | 7 | 20.8% | 16.3% | 3.7% | 5.73 | 5.81 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 66 | 47 | 209 | 949 | 215 | 205 | 23 | 22.6% | 21.6% | 2.4% | 5.35 | 5.24 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 63 | 45 | 200 | 910 | 206 | 196 | 22 | 22.6% | 21.6% | 2.4% | 5.35 | 5.24 | +0.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Noah Dean (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.29 | 22.8% | 16.7% | 3.0% | — | 5.13 | 23.1% | 7.7% | 203 | -0.16 | — | — | — |
| Andy Oliver L 2028 · 4.15 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.15 | 23.4% | 16.9% | 1.6% | .283 | 4.60 | 19.2% | 8.6% | 108 | +0.45 | 3.97 | 165 | 86 |
| Brian Marconi L 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.03 | 20.3% | 18.2% | 2.5% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 101 | 84 |
| Christian Chamberlain L 2025 · 4.42 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.42 | 27.0% | 18.9% | 2.2% | .238 | 3.91 | 20.7% | 0.5% | 43 | -0.51 | 3.91 | 148 | 82 |
| Nick Lee L 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.02 | 19.0% | 19.7% | 1.9% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.76 | 102 | 82 |
| Joseph Menefee L 2026 · 5.25 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.25 | 23.3% | 17.4% | 3.5% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.19 | 134 | 81 |
| Julian Bosnic L 2026 · 5.06 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.06 | 20.0% | 19.6% | 2.1% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 136 | 81 |
| Brendan Cellucci L 2026 · 5.01 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.01 | 21.2% | 14.6% | 3.4% | .381 | 4.26 | 24.6% | 7.7% | 86 | -0.75 | 3.98 | 236 | 81 |
| Adam Tulloch L 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.73 | 17.4% | 15.7% | 2.0% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 212 | 81 |
| Mitchell Tyranski L 2026 · 5.18 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.18 | 20.4% | 13.6% | 3.8% | .269 | 4.08 | 20.7% | 6.1% | 103 | -1.10 | 3.46 | 145 | 81 |
| Trey Cumbie L 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.54 | 25.3% | 15.3% | 3.0% | .284 | 5.08 | 23.3% | 7.2% | 42 | +0.54 | 3.43 | 152 | 80 |
| Graeme Stinson L 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.89 | 19.5% | 15.6% | 2.7% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 146 | 80 |
| Anderson Polanco L 2026 · 5.94 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.94 | 19.9% | 20.9% | 3.4% | .298 | 5.02 | 18.9% | 2.6% | 47 | -0.92 | 4.09 | 316 | 79 |
| José Manuel Fernández L 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.76 | 21.4% | 13.1% | 3.3% | .253 | 5.10 | 13.6% | 4.9% | 61 | +0.34 | 3.35 | 263 | 78 |
| Will Johnston L 2025 · 4.18 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.18 | 23.6% | 13.7% | 2.4% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.96 | 162 | 78 |
| Chandler Jozwiak L 2026 · 5.32 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.32 | 16.9% | 15.3% | 3.1% | .259 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.87 | 161 | 78 |
| Cy Nielson L 2025 · 4.33 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.33 | 20.9% | 12.7% | 2.5% | .361 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 161 | 78 |
| John Beller L 2025 · 4.21 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.21 | 21.6% | 14.2% | 2.1% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 170 | 78 |
| Grant Wolfram L 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.32 | 22.1% | 17.8% | 1.5% | .319 | 3.50 | 23.6% | 13.3% | 178 | -0.82 | 2.81 | 371 | 78 |
| Ismael Guillón L 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.35 | 19.8% | 14.8% | 1.9% | .342 | 4.65 | 20.7% | 8.4% | 30 | +0.30 | 4.35 | 193 | 77 |
| Fabian Williamson L 2027 · 5.30 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.30 | 17.4% | 17.9% | 2.5% | .289 | 4.18 | 20.0% | 8.2% | 77 | -1.12 | 3.42 | 154 | 77 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.