Noah Dean — OGILVIE

Noah Dean P Harrisburg Senators

Age 25 LHP 6'2" / 185 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION14 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129137vR 145

ERA5.89

FIP5.89

K%22.3%

BB%21.1%

K-BB%1.2%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL2020

CMD4040

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	22	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	21	17	63	302	86	72	4	81%	3.0	21.1%	28.1%	-7.1%	1.7%	6.29	5.83	—
2023	22	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	21	17	63	302	86	72	4	81%	3.0	21.1%	28.1%	-7.1%	1.7%	6.29	5.83	—
2023	22	A RAW	Salem Red Sox	21	17	63	302	86	72	4	81%	3.0	28.5%	23.8%	4.6%	1.3%	6.29	4.62	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	15	80	342	116	54	5	68%	3.6	25.4%	18.4%	6.9%	2.0%	4.52	4.41	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	15	80	342	116	54	5	68%	3.6	25.4%	18.4%	6.9%	2.0%	4.52	4.41	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	15	80	342	116	54	5	68%	3.6	33.9%	15.8%	18.1%	1.5%	4.52	3.04	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	15	66	305	82	49	9	65%	2.9	21.1%	18.6%	2.4%	3.4%	5.45	5.55	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	15	66	305	82	49	9	65%	2.9	21.1%	18.6%	2.4%	3.4%	5.45	5.55	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	15	66	305	82	49	9	65%	2.9	26.9%	16.1%	10.8%	3.0%	5.45	4.62	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	12	2	14	69	21	15	3	17%	1.2	20.9%	26.6%	-5.6%	6.2%	6.91	8.10	—
YTD	25	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	12	2	14	69	21	15	3	17%	1.2	20.9%	26.6%	-5.6%	6.2%	6.91	8.10	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	ROK RAW	WSH	2	0	3	11	6	1	0	0%	1.6	54.5%	9.1%	45.5%	0.0%	0.00	-0.35	—
2026	25	AA RAW	WSH	10	2	11	58	15	14	3	20%	1.1	25.9%	24.1%	1.7%	5.2%	9.00	6.81	—
ROS	25	MLB MLE	WSH	5	0	5	23	5	5	1	0%	1.1	22.3%	21.1%	1.2%	2.9%	5.89	5.89	-0.1
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	WSH	—	—	20	92	26	20	4	—	—	28.4%	21.6%	6.8%	4.0%	6.63	7.50	-0.6
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	WSH	12	12	72	303	69	60	9	100%	6.0	22.6%	19.9%	2.7%	3.0%	5.72	5.71	-0.6
2028	27	MLB MLE	WSH	12	12	71	298	68	57	9	100%	5.9	22.7%	19.1%	3.5%	3.0%	5.63	5.64	-0.6
2029	28	MLB MLE	WSH	11	11	68	289	65	54	9	100%	6.2	22.6%	18.8%	3.8%	3.1%	5.62	5.66	-0.6
2030	29	MLB MLE	WSH	11	11	65	276	62	52	9	100%	5.9	22.4%	18.8%	3.6%	3.3%	5.69	5.76	-0.6
2031	30	MLB MLE	WSH	10	10	62	260	57	50	9	100%	6.2	22.0%	19.1%	2.9%	3.5%	5.84	5.93	-0.7
2027	26	MLB CTX	WSH	5	5	31	131	30	26	4	100%	6.2	22.6%	19.9%	2.7%	3.0%	5.72	5.71	-0.3
2028	27	MLB CTX	WSH	8	8	45	190	43	36	6	100%	5.6	22.7%	19.1%	3.5%	3.0%	5.63	5.64	-0.4
2029	28	MLB CTX	WSH	9	9	52	220	50	41	7	100%	5.8	22.6%	18.8%	3.8%	3.1%	5.62	5.66	-0.4
2030	29	MLB CTX	WSH	9	9	53	224	50	42	7	100%	5.9	22.4%	18.8%	3.6%	3.3%	5.69	5.76	-0.5
2031	30	MLB CTX	WSH	9	9	53	224	49	43	8	100%	5.9	22.0%	19.1%	2.9%	3.5%	5.84	5.93	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		39	39	234	989	222	189	31	100%	6.0	22.4%	19.1%	3.4%	3.2%	5.70	5.37	-1.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	190	161	26	100%	6.0	22.4%	19.1%	3.4%	3.2%	5.70	5.37	-1.0
Career	—	MLE		78	49	223	1018	229	223	27	63%	2.9	22.5%	21.9%	0.6%	2.6%	5.45	5.42	-3.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		70	44	200	913	205	200	24	63%	2.9	22.5%	21.9%	0.6%	2.6%	5.45	5.42	-1.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Noah Dean (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.89	22.3%	21.1%	2.9%	—	5.67	22.6%	3.3%	211	-0.22	—	—	—
Larson Kindreich L 2023 · 5.29 FIP	24	SW	5.29	21.5%	18.8%	3.0%	.269	4.68	23.0%	9.0%	79	-0.61	4.16	214	86
Garrett Schoenle L 2023 · 5.38 FIP	25	SP-	5.38	20.5%	15.0%	3.9%	.307	3.59	20.9%	12.2%	172	-1.79	2.32	359	77
Braeden Fausnaught L 2023 · 4.77 FIP	24	SW	4.77	16.9%	16.4%	1.8%	.287	4.60	17.9%	9.7%	179	-0.17	4.43	242	75
Bryce Hubbart L 2023 · 5.87 FIP	22	SW	5.87	17.0%	26.0%	1.7%	.303	5.32	17.8%	4.0%	148	-0.55	4.79	193	74
Anderson Polanco L 2018 · 5.95 FIP	25	SW	5.95	19.9%	20.9%	3.4%	.298	5.09	18.9%	2.6%	47	-0.86	4.10	316	71
Seth Lonsway L 2023 · 5.20 FIP	24	SP-	5.20	13.8%	15.3%	2.4%	.317	4.17	15.2%	4.4%	313	-1.03	3.35	498	71
Mason Green L 2023 · 5.28 FIP	24	SW	5.28	17.9%	16.7%	2.9%	.278	4.24	18.4%	6.3%	262	-1.04	3.68	448	70
Joe Adametz L 2023 · 5.89 FIP	23	SW	5.89	19.0%	15.0%	4.5%	.158	4.32	14.8%	5.5%	224	-1.57	3.66	248	69
Nathan Kirby L 2018 · 5.12 FIP	24	SW	5.12	17.7%	16.2%	2.7%	.318	3.84	25.3%	8.7%	38	-1.28	3.84	145	68
Brooks Gosswein L 2023 · 5.61 FIP	24	SP-	5.61	15.2%	17.9%	2.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	5.13	165	68
Hayden Wynja L 2023 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.05	4.74	154	67
Jimmy Robbins L 2023 · 4.69 FIP	25	SP-	4.69	17.8%	15.2%	2.1%	.290	5.79	18.9%	3.1%	13	+1.10	3.85	176	67
Matt Mikulski L 2023 · 6.17 FIP	24	SW	6.17	16.4%	18.6%	3.8%	.303	5.90	16.3%	-3.3%	78	-0.27	4.92	223	67
Doug Nikhazy L 2023 · 5.39 FIP	23	SP	5.39	21.9%	16.9%	3.6%	.304	4.73	19.6%	8.6%	256	-0.66	4.16	461	64
Cody Dickson L 2017 · 5.48 FIP	25	SW	5.48	15.9%	14.6%	3.4%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.88	354	64
Kevin Smith L 2022 · 6.20 FIP	25	SW	6.20	17.5%	16.2%	4.6%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.26	248	64
Edgar Barclay L 2023 · 4.71 FIP	25	SW	4.71	23.8%	12.1%	3.8%	.307	5.59	15.7%	5.5%	157	+0.88	2.06	402	63
Irwin Delgado L 2015 · 4.77 FIP	26	SW	4.77	14.4%	9.6%	3.0%	.349	3.53	16.2%	7.6%	237	-1.24	3.52	383	63
Brandon Knarr L 2023 · 5.04 FIP	25	SP-	5.04	24.8%	16.0%	3.7%	.450	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	256	63
Dominic Perachi L 2023 · 5.19 FIP	22	SP-	5.19	17.5%	13.9%	3.3%	.324	3.80	17.1%	6.8%	186	-1.39	3.33	277	62

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.0	68	22.4%	19.5%	1.20	5.73
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Michael Kopech ('24)	1.9	96	26.1%	12.5%	1.45	4.15