Noah Dean

P Harrisburg Senators

Age 26 LHP 6'2" / 185 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX2 levels	22	15	80	4.52	3.04	33.9%	15.8%	—	K 25.4% · BB 18.4% · FIP 4.41
2025	24	MIX2 levels	23	15	66	5.45	4.62	26.9%	16.1%	—	K 21.1% · BB 18.6% · FIP 5.55
2026	25	MIX2 levels	12	2	14	6.91	6.03	30.4%	21.7%	—	K 20.9% · BB 26.6% · FIP 8.10
2027PROJ	26	MLBWSH	1	1	1	5.92	5.92	21.9%	20.0%	-0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	27	MLBWSH	3	3	17	5.78	5.80	22.0%	19.0%	-0.1
2029PROJ60% MLB	28	MLBWSH	4	4	23	5.73	5.77	22.0%	18.4%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Control20Command40

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsErik Rivera (age 23) · Adam Scott (age 26) · Brooks Gosswein (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129137vR 146

ERA5.92

FIP5.92

K%21.9%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%1.9%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL2020

CMD4040

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	22	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	21	17	63	302	86	72	4	81%	3.0	21.1%	28.1%	-7.1%	1.7%	6.29	5.83	—
2023	22	A RAW	Salem Red Sox	21	17	63	302	86	72	4	81%	3.0	28.5%	23.8%	4.6%	1.3%	6.29	4.62	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	15	80	342	116	54	5	68%	3.6	25.4%	18.4%	6.9%	2.0%	4.52	4.41	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	15	80	342	116	54	5	68%	3.6	25.4%	18.4%	6.9%	2.0%	4.52	4.41	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	15	80	342	116	54	5	68%	3.6	33.9%	15.8%	18.1%	1.5%	4.52	3.04	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	15	66	305	82	49	9	65%	2.9	21.1%	18.6%	2.4%	3.4%	5.45	5.55	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	15	66	305	82	49	9	65%	2.9	21.1%	18.6%	2.4%	3.4%	5.45	5.55	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	15	66	305	82	49	9	65%	2.9	26.9%	16.1%	10.8%	3.0%	5.45	4.62	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	2	14	69	21	15	3	17%	1.2	20.9%	26.6%	-5.6%	6.2%	6.91	8.10	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	2	14	69	21	15	3	17%	1.2	20.9%	26.6%	-5.6%	6.2%	6.91	8.10	—
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	2	14	69	21	15	3	17%	1.2	30.4%	21.7%	8.7%	4.3%	6.91	6.03	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	WSH	1	1	1	4	1	1	0	100%	1.0	21.9%	20.0%	1.9%	3.2%	5.92	5.92	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	WSH	7	7	45	190	42	36	6	100%	6.4	22.0%	19.0%	3.0%	3.2%	5.78	5.80	-0.2
2029	28	MLB MLE	WSH	6	6	39	165	36	30	5	100%	6.5	22.0%	18.4%	3.6%	3.3%	5.73	5.77	-0.2
2028	27	MLB CTX	WSH	3	3	17	72	16	14	2	100%	5.7	22.0%	19.0%	3.0%	3.2%	5.78	5.80	-0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	WSH	4	4	23	97	21	18	3	100%	5.8	22.0%	18.4%	3.6%	3.3%	5.73	5.77	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	7	40	169	37	32	6	100%	5.7	22.0%	18.7%	3.3%	3.3%	5.75	5.40	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	185	160	30	100%	6.0	22.0%	18.7%	3.3%	3.3%	5.75	5.40	-0.0
Career	—	MLE		78	49	223	1018	229	223	27	63%	2.9	22.5%	21.9%	0.6%	2.6%	5.45	5.42	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		70	44	200	913	205	200	24	63%	2.9	22.5%	21.9%	0.6%	2.6%	5.45	5.42	-0.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAHarrisburg Senators · 11 IPFIP 6.81 → 8.10 (+1.29)K% 25.9% → 20.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.86%	—	×0.810	20.95%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	24.14%	—	×1.100	26.55%
HR / BF /BF	5.17%	÷1.000	×1.200	6.21%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 6.81 → 8.10, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Greenville Drive · 63 IPFIP 4.51 → 5.55 (+1.04)K% 27.4% → 21.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.36%	—	×0.770	21.07%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.22%	—	×1.150	18.65%
HR / BF /BF	3.04%	÷1.117	×1.250	3.40%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 123).

Result: FIP 4.51 → 5.55, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ASalem Red Sox · 61 IPFIP 2.86 → 4.36 (+1.50)K% 35.1% → 26.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.10%	—	×0.740	25.98%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.65%	—	×1.180	14.93%
HR / BF /BF	2.04%	÷0.933	×1.300	2.84%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 87).

Result: FIP 2.86 → 4.36, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Greenville Drive · 18 IPFIP 3.49 → 4.54 (+1.05)K% 30.9% → 23.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.93%	—	×0.770	23.81%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	23.71%	—	×1.150	27.27%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.043	×1.250	0.00%

Result: FIP 3.49 → 4.54, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ASalem Red Sox · 63 IPFIP 4.44 → 5.83 (+1.39)K% 28.5% → 21.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.48%	—	×0.740	21.07%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	23.84%	—	×1.180	28.13%
HR / BF /BF	1.32%	÷0.999	×1.300	1.72%

Result: FIP 4.44 → 5.83, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Noah Dean (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.92	21.9%	20.0%	3.2%	—	5.79	22.0%	3.3%	84	-0.13	—	—	—
Erik Rivera L 2024 · 5.71 FIP	23	SP-	5.71	19.0%	14.6%	4.3%	.255	4.74	23.9%	6.3%	106	-0.97	4.42	141	70
Adam Scott L 2022 · 5.27 FIP	26	SW	5.27	21.1%	13.5%	4.1%	.317	4.65	16.1%	-1.2%	46	-0.62	4.17	315	69
Brooks Gosswein L 2023 · 5.61 FIP	24	SP-	5.61	15.2%	17.9%	2.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	5.13	165	67
Dan Meyer L 2007 · 4.76 FIP	26	SP-	4.76	13.9%	11.4%	2.5%	.316	4.35	20.6%	11.8%	86	-0.41	3.73	112	66
Luis Ysla L 2018 · 4.96 FIP	26	SW	4.96	18.9%	13.9%	3.1%	.325	5.78	18.0%	3.6%	86	+0.82	3.75	378	66
Nick Dombkowski L 2024 · 4.92 FIP	25	SW	4.92	16.5%	10.9%	3.3%	.273	5.17	18.2%	10.6%	183	+0.25	3.71	425	65
Nate Peterson L 2024 · 5.51 FIP	24	SP-	5.51	19.2%	11.4%	4.7%	.296	4.75	16.0%	3.7%	148	-0.76	4.27	315	64
Irwin Delgado L 2015 · 4.77 FIP	26	SW	4.77	14.4%	9.6%	3.0%	.349	3.53	16.2%	7.6%	237	-1.24	3.52	383	64
Brandon Knarr L 2023 · 5.04 FIP	25	SP-	5.04	24.8%	16.0%	3.7%	.450	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	256	64
Brad Mills L 2011 · 5.37 FIP	26	SP-	5.37	19.8%	12.1%	4.4%	.328	5.61	18.8%	7.9%	21	+0.24	4.22	243	64
Eric Stout L 2019 · 6.84 FIP	26	SW	6.84	16.3%	13.8%	6.1%	.299	4.91	25.6%	9.2%	83	-1.93	3.32	411	63
Kevin Smith L 2022 · 6.20 FIP	25	SW	6.20	17.5%	16.2%	4.6%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.26	248	63
Cody Dickson L 2017 · 5.48 FIP	25	SW	5.48	15.9%	14.6%	3.4%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.88	354	63
Jacob Latz L 2022 · 6.11 FIP	26	SP-	6.11	21.4%	13.4%	5.7%	.333	3.61	24.1%	13.2%	208	-2.50	2.39	480	62
Adam Loewen L 2008 · 6.87 FIP	24	SP-	6.87	13.7%	17.6%	4.9%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	2.96	340	61
Brian Holmes L 2017 · 5.91 FIP	26	SW	5.91	15.5%	11.7%	4.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	205	61
Mitch Stallings L 2021 · 5.48 FIP	26	SW	5.48	16.8%	11.5%	4.3%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	2.18	108	61
Anderson Polanco L 2019 · 5.09 FIP	26	SU	5.09	18.9%	16.3%	2.8%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.10	316	60
Matthew Spann L 2016 · 5.15 FIP	25	SW	5.15	15.1%	16.9%	2.2%	.375	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	173	59
Anthony Kay L 2021 · 4.94 FIP	26	SP-	4.94	22.9%	11.2%	4.3%	.333	4.20	24.2%	11.2%	69	-0.74	3.44	579	59

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	48	22.0%	19.3%	1.25	5.82
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*