Noah Dean
P
Harrisburg Senators
Age 25
LHP
6'2" / 185 lbs
AA
peak 0.3 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION14 act + 70 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130139vR 148
ERA5.75
FIP5.75
K%22.3%
BB%20.3%
K-BB%2.1%
ROS IP70
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 84 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 22 | A | Salem Red Sox | 21 | 17 | 63 | 302 | 86 | 72 | 4 | 81% | 3.0 | 21.1% | 28.1% | -7.1% | 1.7% | 6.29 | 5.83 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A | Salem Red Sox | 21 | 17 | 63 | 302 | 86 | 72 | 4 | 81% | 3.0 | 28.5% | 23.8% | 4.6% | 1.3% | 6.29 | 4.62 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 15 | 80 | 342 | 116 | 54 | 5 | 68% | 3.6 | 25.4% | 18.4% | 6.9% | 2.2% | 4.52 | 4.50 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 15 | 80 | 342 | 116 | 54 | 5 | 68% | 3.6 | 33.9% | 15.8% | 18.1% | 1.5% | 4.52 | 3.04 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 15 | 66 | 305 | 82 | 49 | 9 | 65% | 2.9 | 21.1% | 18.6% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 5.45 | 5.37 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 15 | 66 | 305 | 82 | 49 | 9 | 65% | 2.9 | 26.9% | 16.1% | 10.8% | 3.0% | 5.45 | 4.62 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | 12 | 2 | 14 | 69 | 21 | 15 | 3 | 17% | 1.2 | 20.9% | 26.6% | -5.6% | 6.2% | 6.91 | 8.10 | -0.6 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | WSH | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 66 | 60 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.3% | 20.3% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 5.75 | 5.75 | -0.8 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | WSH | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.3% | 20.3% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 5.75 | 5.75 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 84 | 365 | 87 | 75 | 12 | — | — | 23.9% | 20.5% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 5.95 | 6.15 | -1.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 22.3% | 20.3% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 5.75 | 5.37 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | WSH | 12 | 12 | 70 | 296 | 67 | 56 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.6% | 19.1% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 5.60 | 5.59 | -0.7 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | WSH | 12 | 12 | 69 | 291 | 66 | 54 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.7% | 18.4% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 5.52 | 5.53 | -0.6 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | WSH | 5 | 5 | 31 | 131 | 30 | 25 | 4 | 100% | 6.2 | 22.6% | 19.1% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 5.60 | 5.59 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | WSH | 7 | 7 | 44 | 186 | 42 | 34 | 6 | 100% | 6.3 | 22.7% | 18.4% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 5.52 | 5.53 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 14 | 12 | 76 | 320 | 73 | 60 | 9 | 86% | 5.4 | 22.7% | 18.7% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 5.56 | 5.18 | -0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 36 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 192 | 158 | 24 | 90% | 5.5 | 22.7% | 18.7% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 5.56 | 5.18 | +0.5 | ||
| Career | — | 78 | 49 | 223 | 1018 | 229 | 223 | 26 | 63% | 2.9 | 22.5% | 21.9% | 0.6% | 2.6% | 5.45 | 5.40 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 70 | 44 | 200 | 913 | 205 | 200 | 24 | 63% | 2.9 | 22.5% | 21.9% | 0.6% | 2.6% | 5.45 | 5.40 | +0.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Noah Dean (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.75 | 22.3% | 20.3% | 2.9% | — | 5.56 | 22.7% | 3.9% | 139 | -0.19 | — | — | — |
| Garrett Schoenle L 2026 · 5.35 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.35 | 20.5% | 15.0% | 3.8% | .307 | 3.48 | 21.1% | 12.6% | 150 | -1.87 | 2.34 | 338 | 77 |
| Liam Sullivan L 2025 · 5.49 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.49 | 20.1% | 15.8% | 3.8% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 121 | 76 |
| Cole Reynolds L 2025 · 5.26 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.26 | 17.3% | 16.9% | 2.7% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.81 | 108 | 76 |
| Zack Thompson L 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.59 | 23.2% | 14.2% | 3.0% | .355 | 4.75 | 24.1% | 10.1% | 107 | +0.16 | 2.03 | 402 | 71 |
| Anderson Polanco L 2026 · 6.02 FIP | 25 | SW | 6.02 | 19.9% | 20.9% | 3.5% | .298 | 5.41 | 18.9% | 2.6% | 47 | -0.61 | 4.00 | 316 | 71 |
| Rio Britton L 2024 · 4.77 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.77 | 22.0% | 15.8% | 2.8% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.19 | 128 | 70 |
| Hayden Frank L 2024 · 5.29 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.29 | 17.2% | 14.2% | 3.4% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.29 | 109 | 69 |
| Nick Dombkowski L 2026 · 5.37 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.37 | 16.7% | 11.9% | 3.9% | .273 | 6.05 | 16.6% | 6.2% | 129 | +0.68 | 3.58 | 371 | 69 |
| Connor Oliver L 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.91 | 19.6% | 13.9% | 3.1% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.29 | 200 | 68 |
| Nathan Kirby L 2025 · 5.11 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.11 | 17.7% | 16.2% | 2.6% | .318 | 3.89 | 25.3% | 8.7% | 38 | -1.22 | 3.89 | 145 | 68 |
| Brooks Gosswein L 2025 · 5.58 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.58 | 15.2% | 17.9% | 2.7% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.01 | 165 | 67 |
| Wyatt Crowell L 2025 · 5.01 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.01 | 18.2% | 18.2% | 2.1% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.35 | 198 | 67 |
| Jimmy Robbins L 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.69 | 17.8% | 15.2% | 2.1% | .290 | 6.22 | 20.1% | 1.7% | 13 | +1.53 | 3.89 | 176 | 67 |
| Edgar Barclay L 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.79 | 24.5% | 13.6% | 3.7% | .307 | 5.60 | 16.5% | 4.9% | 157 | +0.81 | 2.06 | 402 | 67 |
| Jackson Wolf L 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.80 | 16.3% | 13.4% | 2.5% | .344 | 4.37 | 19.6% | 10.5% | 203 | -0.43 | 3.99 | 572 | 65 |
| Austin Krob L 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.89 | 16.4% | 16.3% | 2.0% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 280 | 65 |
| Cody Dickson L 2026 · 5.52 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.52 | 15.9% | 14.6% | 3.5% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.90 | 354 | 64 |
| Josh Trentadue L 2025 · 4.99 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.99 | 21.5% | 12.3% | 3.9% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 196 | 64 |
| Kevin Smith L 2026 · 6.28 FIP | 25 | SW | 6.28 | 17.5% | 16.2% | 4.8% | .269 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.19 | 248 | 63 |
| Brandon Knarr L 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.94 | 24.8% | 16.0% | 3.5% | .450 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 256 | 63 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 70 | 22.5% | 19.3% | 1.13 | 5.62 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Kyle Barraclough ('19) | 5 | 50 | 29.0% | 14.1% | 0.86 | 3.53 |
| Michael Kopech ('24) | 4 | 96 | 26.1% | 12.5% | 1.45 | 4.15 |