Anthony Kay
P
Chicago White Sox
+0.3
WAR
Age 31
LHP
6'0" / 225 lbs
MLB
peak 0.3 · 2026
ERA5.06
FIP4.34
xFIP5.69
SIERA5.51
K%23.7%
BB%10.0%
K-BB%13.7%
IP52
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
OFP—40
STUF5050
CTRL3535
CMD5555
K†5555
FB Velo
p7095.9
Whiff%
p1520.4%
K%
p1013.0%
xwOBA vs
p100.419
SL+0.7 (31%)
SI (16%)
CT (10%)
CH (15%)
FB-5.5 (44%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 23 | A+ | St. Lucie Mets | 23 | 23 | 123 | 531 | 123 | 49 | 7 | 17.4% | 10.7% | 1.7% | 4.26 | 3.94 | +1.9 |
| 2019 | 24 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 29 | 28 | 148 | 624 | 148 | 60 | 12 | 20.3% | 10.2% | 2.1% | 3.23 | 3.86 | +2.4 |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 13 | 0 | 21 | 98 | 22 | 13 | 3 | 22.4% | 13.3% | 3.0% | 5.14 | 4.55 | +0.1 |
| 2021 | 26 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 19 | 13 | 60 | 282 | 68 | 31 | 12 | 22.9% | 11.2% | 4.2% | 7.05 | 4.91 | +0.0 |
| 2022 | 27 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 14 | 4 | 23 | 107 | 26 | 13 | 4 | 18.9% | 16.5% | 6.6% | 5.40 | 7.23 | -0.6 |
| 2023 | 28 | MLB | New York Mets | 48 | 1 | 55 | 239 | 69 | 31 | 4 | 26.0% | 13.4% | 1.7% | 4.39 | 3.57 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 4 | 2 | 17 | 78 | 12 | 9 | 2 | 15.4% | 11.5% | 2.6% | 2.60 | 4.67 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | CWS | 34 | — | 34 | 144 | 30 | 15 | 4 | 21.0% | 10.5% | 3.0% | 5.02 | 4.29 | +0.3 |
| 2026 Total | 31 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 52 | 222 | 42 | 24 | 6 | 19.0% | 10.9% | 2.8% | 4.20 | 4.42 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | CWS | 49 | — | 49 | 209 | 42 | 22 | 6 | 20.3% | 10.7% | 3.1% | 5.04 | 4.79 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | CWS | 47 | — | 47 | 199 | 39 | 22 | 6 | 19.6% | 10.8% | 3.1% | 4.97 | 4.92 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | CWS | 45 | — | 45 | 189 | 36 | 21 | 6 | 18.9% | 11.0% | 3.2% | 5.02 | 5.06 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 35 | MLB | CWS | 42 | — | 42 | 178 | 32 | 20 | 6 | 18.2% | 11.3% | 3.4% | 5.13 | 5.21 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 36 | MLB | CWS | 40 | — | 40 | 167 | 29 | 19 | 6 | 17.4% | 11.5% | 3.5% | 5.28 | 5.38 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 150 | 71 | 447 | 1959 | 400 | 224 | 51 | 20.4% | 11.5% | 2.6% | 4.35 | 4.25 | +5.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 67 | 32 | 200 | 876 | 179 | 100 | 23 | 20.4% | 11.5% | 2.6% | 4.35 | 4.25 | +2.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Anthony Kay (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.50 | 23.1% | 10.3% | 3.0% | — | 4.92 | 19.6% | 8.8% | 141 | +0.42 | — | — | — |
| Marlon Arias L 2025 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.30 | 16.8% | 12.2% | 2.0% | .330 | 3.73 | 17.2% | 9.5% | 22 | -0.57 | 3.73 | 154 | 87 |
| Brandon Mann L 2027 · 4.73 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.73 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 4.1% | .320 | 3.99 | 19.0% | 7.6% | 128 | -0.74 | 3.59 | 190 | 81 |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2024 · 4.68 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.68 | 20.2% | 9.6% | 3.8% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.70 | 175 | 79 |
| Dan Jennings L 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 16.6% | 8.1% | 2.1% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 244 | 78 |
| Francisley Bueno L 2029 · 3.78 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.78 | 14.8% | 7.1% | 1.9% | .315 | 3.99 | 13.3% | 6.6% | 110 | +0.21 | 3.51 | 138 | 78 |
| Phil Coke L 2028 · 3.85 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.85 | 18.8% | 9.1% | 2.1% | .373 | 3.04 | 18.0% | 11.3% | 70 | -0.81 | 3.04 | 101 | 77 |
| Santiago Gutierrez L 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.91 | 15.0% | 8.2% | 1.9% | .366 | 6.58 | 17.1% | 3.7% | 46 | +2.67 | 3.91 | 341 | 76 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.27 | 18.6% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.44 | 124 | 76 |
| Kelvin Marte L 2026 · 5.25 FIP | 31 | SW | 5.25 | 12.0% | 10.8% | 3.3% | .340 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.44 | 360 | 75 |
| Brian Duensing L 2027 · 4.46 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.46 | 11.5% | 8.1% | 2.4% | .252 | 3.76 | 20.2% | 11.8% | 137 | -0.70 | 2.63 | 198 | 75 |
| Edward Paredes L 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.80 | 22.7% | 11.9% | 2.0% | .351 | 5.13 | 21.5% | 14.2% | 18 | +1.33 | 2.37 | 130 | 74 |
| Marc Rzepczynski L 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.72 | 18.2% | 10.9% | 1.4% | .284 | 5.47 | 15.5% | 1.4% | 67 | +1.75 | 2.71 | 181 | 74 |
| Jeremy Bleich L 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.69 | 20.3% | 6.6% | 2.7% | .296 | 4.42 | 20.1% | 13.1% | 33 | +0.73 | 3.20 | 241 | 74 |
| Franklin Morales L 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.03 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 2.2% | .267 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 101 | 73 |
| Jeremy Horst L 2025 · 3.71 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.71 | 15.1% | 12.4% | 0.6% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.71 | 108 | 73 |
| Jason Gurka L 2026 · 5.13 FIP | 31 | SU | 5.13 | 15.5% | 7.6% | 4.3% | .382 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.91 | 183 | 72 |
| Yuki Matsui L 2024 · 4.44 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.44 | 22.4% | 11.4% | 3.3% | .253 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.52 | 126 | 72 |
| Fernando Abad L 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.68 | 20.3% | 7.1% | 2.5% | .281 | 2.38 | 23.3% | 21.0% | 44 | -1.30 | 2.38 | 306 | 72 |
| Kraig Sitton L 2024 · 3.89 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.89 | 14.7% | 6.1% | 2.3% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.81 | 166 | 72 |
| Jake McGee L 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.47 | 20.7% | 6.6% | 4.2% | .316 | 3.55 | 25.6% | 21.2% | 121 | -0.92 | 1.36 | 350 | 71 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.