Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 18 | ROK | GCL Orioles | 5 | 5 | 10 | 49 | 12 | 10 | 1 | 100% | 2.1 | 24.5% | 20.4% | 4.1% | 2.0% | 6.97 | 4.74 | — |
| 2017 | 18 | ROK | GCL Orioles | 5 | 5 | 10 | 49 | 12 | 10 | 1 | 100% | 2.1 | 24.5% | 20.4% | 4.1% | 2.0% | 6.97 | 4.94 | — |
| 2018 | 19 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | 22 | 20 | 94 | 391 | 100 | 42 | 6 | 91% | 4.3 | 18.9% | 12.7% | 6.3% | 2.7% | 2.10 | 4.58 | — |
| 2018 | 19 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | 22 | 20 | 94 | 391 | 100 | 42 | 6 | 91% | 4.3 | 25.6% | 10.7% | 14.8% | 1.5% | 2.10 | 3.14 | — |
| 2019 | 20 | A+ | Frederick Keys | 19 | 17 | 81 | 346 | 116 | 54 | 3 | 89% | 4.2 | 25.8% | 17.9% | 7.9% | 0.9% | 3.46 | 3.66 | — |
| 2019 | 20 | A+ | Frederick Keys | 19 | 17 | 81 | 346 | 116 | 54 | 3 | 89% | 4.2 | 33.5% | 15.6% | 17.9% | 0.9% | 3.46 | 2.72 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | AA | Bowie Baysox | 7 | 7 | 32 | 128 | 56 | 16 | 4 | 100% | 4.5 | 35.4% | 13.8% | 21.7% | 2.5% | 3.13 | 3.21 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | AA | Bowie Baysox | 7 | 7 | 32 | 128 | 56 | 16 | 4 | 100% | 4.5 | 43.8% | 12.5% | 31.2% | 3.1% | 3.13 | 2.72 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 4 levels | 35 | 21 | 98 | 438 | 156 | 56 | 10 | 60% | 2.8 | 31.5% | 14.0% | 17.5% | 2.9% | 4.68 | 3.78 | +1.8 |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 4 levels | 35 | 21 | 98 | 438 | 156 | 56 | 10 | 60% | 2.8 | 35.6% | 12.8% | 22.8% | 2.3% | 4.68 | 2.96 | +2.8 |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 37 | 12 | 71 | 310 | 101 | 37 | 9 | 32% | 1.9 | 28.4% | 12.2% | 16.1% | 3.2% | 3.79 | 4.03 | +0.6 |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 37 | 12 | 71 | 310 | 101 | 37 | 9 | 32% | 1.9 | 32.6% | 11.9% | 20.6% | 2.9% | 3.79 | 3.46 | +1.1 |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 28 | 22 | 84 | 379 | 80 | 46 | 10 | 79% | 3.0 | 19.9% | 12.6% | 7.3% | 3.1% | 4.39 | 4.71 | +0.3 |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 28 | 22 | 84 | 379 | 80 | 46 | 10 | 79% | 3.0 | 21.1% | 12.1% | 9.0% | 2.6% | 4.39 | 4.39 | +0.7 |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 24 | 6 | 49 | 198 | 42 | 23 | 2 | 25% | 2.1 | 17.4% | 11.0% | 6.5% | 1.3% | 2.74 | 3.76 | +0.5 |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 24 | 6 | 49 | 198 | 42 | 23 | 2 | 25% | 2.1 | 21.2% | 11.6% | 9.6% | 1.0% | 2.74 | 3.32 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 24 | 1 | 31 | 126 | 32 | 24 | 1 | 4% | 1.3 | 25.4% | 19.0% | 6.3% | 0.8% | 2.03 | 3.80 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | MIL | 26 | 0 | 27 | 115 | 25 | 16 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.6% | 14.1% | 7.5% | 2.3% | 4.03 | 4.35 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | MIL | 26 | 0 | 27 | 114 | 25 | 16 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.6% | 14.1% | 7.5% | 2.3% | 4.03 | 4.35 | +0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 58 | 241 | 57 | 40 | 4 | — | — | 23.6% | 16.7% | 6.9% | 1.5% | 2.97 | 4.06 | +0.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 58 | 246 | 57 | 40 | 4 | — | — | 23.1% | 16.4% | 6.8% | 1.5% | 2.97 | 4.05 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | MIL | 59 | 0 | 62 | 260 | 54 | 37 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.9% | 14.2% | 6.7% | 2.5% | 4.71 | 4.87 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | MIL | 56 | 0 | 59 | 248 | 50 | 36 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.3% | 14.5% | 5.8% | 2.6% | 4.90 | 5.03 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | MIL | 53 | 0 | 55 | 233 | 46 | 34 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.6% | 14.8% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 5.10 | 5.24 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | MIL | 56 | 0 | 59 | 249 | 52 | 35 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.9% | 14.2% | 6.7% | 2.5% | 4.71 | 4.87 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | MIL | 53 | 0 | 56 | 236 | 48 | 34 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.3% | 14.5% | 5.8% | 2.6% | 4.90 | 5.03 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | MIL | 50 | 0 | 53 | 224 | 44 | 33 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.6% | 14.8% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 5.10 | 5.24 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 271 | 12 | 340 | 1443 | 313 | 191 | 32 | 4% | 1.3 | 21.7% | 13.3% | 8.4% | 2.2% | 4.37 | 4.17 | +4.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 159 | 7 | 200 | 849 | 184 | 112 | 19 | 4% | 1.3 | 21.7% | 13.3% | 8.4% | 2.2% | 4.37 | 4.17 | +2.9 | ||
| Career | — | 201 | 111 | 551 | 2365 | 588 | 332 | 56 | 55% | 2.7 | 24.9% | 14.0% | 10.8% | 2.3% | 3.53 | 4.07 | +8.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 73 | 40 | 200 | 859 | 214 | 121 | 20 | 55% | 2.7 | 24.9% | 14.0% | 10.8% | 2.3% | 3.53 | 4.07 | +3.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| DL Hall (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.93 | 19.2% | 12.3% | 2.7% | — | 5.04 | 20.3% | 5.8% | 176 | +0.11 | — | — | — |
| Tommy Vail L 2025 · 5.18 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.18 | 19.7% | 16.4% | 3.0% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 151 | 71 |
| Matt Whitehouse L 2026 · 4.70 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.70 | 17.0% | 12.8% | 2.6% | .308 | 4.02 | 20.1% | 9.2% | 81 | -0.68 | 3.38 | 353 | 68 |
| Shinnosuke Ogasawara L 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.83 | 16.6% | 9.0% | 3.6% | .308 | 3.98 | 22.0% | 15.2% | 59 | -0.85 | 3.98 | 122 | 67 |
| Aaron Rozek L 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.53 | 17.4% | 8.8% | 3.3% | .311 | 4.31 | 17.2% | 9.9% | 300 | -0.22 | 3.88 | 523 | 66 |
| Hunter Barco L 2024 · 4.31 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.31 | 20.3% | 11.7% | 2.6% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.51 | 212 | 65 |
| Garrett Williams L 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.60 | 24.9% | 14.2% | 3.3% | .323 | 4.39 | 24.3% | -0.2% | 53 | -0.21 | 3.36 | 470 | 64 |
| Brendan Nail L 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.43 | 19.5% | 11.4% | 2.8% | .262 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.67 | 165 | 64 |
| Cam Vieaux L 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.09 | 18.0% | 11.8% | 3.7% | .288 | 4.54 | 20.3% | 10.1% | 122 | -0.55 | 4.22 | 620 | 64 |
| Trenton Wallace L 2025 · 5.34 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.34 | 24.8% | 16.4% | 4.1% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.75 | 286 | 63 |
| Alex Cornwell L 2025 · 5.01 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.01 | 14.7% | 11.1% | 3.2% | .338 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 381 | 63 |
| Austin Krob L 2024 · 4.89 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.89 | 16.4% | 16.3% | 2.0% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 280 | 62 |
| Brian Holmes L 2025 · 6.01 FIP | 26 | SW | 6.01 | 15.5% | 11.7% | 5.0% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.42 | 205 | 62 |
| Chris Reed L 2025 · 4.84 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.84 | 16.4% | 9.8% | 3.4% | .238 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.84 | 137 | 62 |
| Adam Laskey L 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.39 | 17.1% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.08 | 310 | 62 |
| Anderson Polanco L 2025 · 5.41 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.41 | 18.9% | 16.3% | 3.4% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.00 | 316 | 62 |
| Brandon Knarr L 2024 · 4.94 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.94 | 24.8% | 16.0% | 3.5% | .450 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 256 | 61 |
| Alec Gamboa L 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.93 | 14.2% | 10.3% | 1.3% | .290 | 4.08 | 18.4% | 9.4% | 64 | +0.15 | 1.46 | 404 | 61 |
| Will Lamb L 2025 · 5.47 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.47 | 20.0% | 14.0% | 4.2% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 178 | 61 |
| Ross Detwiler L 2028 · 5.34 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.34 | 14.2% | 12.2% | 3.5% | .356 | 5.01 | 14.1% | 5.9% | 242 | -0.33 | 3.47 | 512 | 61 |
| Cody Dickson L 2024 · 5.52 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.52 | 15.9% | 14.6% | 3.5% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.90 | 354 | 61 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 58 | 20.0% | 13.9% | 1.03 | 4.82 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |