Caden Grice

P Hillsboro Hops

Age 25 LHP 6'6" / 250 lbs A+ peak 0.1 · 2028

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	AARI	12	11	50	3.75	3.16	31.2%	13.3%	—	K 23.1% · BB 15.7% · FIP 4.33
2026	24	A+ARI	21	19	83	3.59	4.09	23.3%	13.6%	—	K 17.9% · BB 15.6% · FIP 5.05
2027PROJ	25	MLBARI	—	—	0	5.43	5.43	18.4%	15.0%	—
2028PROJ31% MLB	26	MLBARI	3	3	18	5.28	5.26	19.5%	14.4%	0.0
2029PROJ48% MLB	27	MLBARI	4	4	25	5.22	5.23	19.8%	14.1%	0.0

Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 0.7, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 94%

CompsJimmy Robbins (age 25) · Erik Rivera (age 23) · Miguel Cienfuegos (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120128vR 136

ERA5.43

FIP5.43

K%18.4%

BB%15.0%

K-BB%3.4%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	22	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	12	11	50	218	68	29	4	92%	4.2	23.1%	15.7%	7.4%	2.2%	3.75	4.33	—
2024	22	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	12	11	50	218	68	29	4	92%	4.2	23.1%	15.7%	7.4%	2.2%	3.75	4.33	—
2024	22	A RAW	Visalia Rawhide	12	11	50	218	68	29	4	92%	4.2	31.2%	13.3%	17.9%	1.8%	3.75	3.16	—
2026	24	A+ MLE	Hillsboro Hops	21	19	83	369	86	50	8	90%	3.9	17.9%	15.6%	2.4%	2.7%	3.59	5.05	—
2026	24	A+ MLE	Hillsboro Hops	21	19	83	369	86	50	8	90%	3.9	17.9%	15.6%	2.4%	2.7%	3.59	5.05	—
2026	24	A+ RAW	Hillsboro Hops	21	19	83	369	86	50	8	90%	3.9	23.3%	13.6%	9.8%	2.2%	3.59	4.09	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	ARI	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.4%	15.0%	3.4%	2.9%	5.43	5.43	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	ARI	10	10	58	244	48	35	7	100%	5.8	19.5%	14.4%	5.1%	2.9%	5.28	5.26	+0.1
2029	27	MLB MLE	ARI	8	8	51	215	43	30	6	100%	6.4	19.8%	14.1%	5.7%	3.0%	5.22	5.23	+0.1
2030	28	MLB MLE	ARI	8	8	47	199	40	28	6	100%	5.9	19.8%	14.0%	5.8%	3.1%	5.23	5.27	+0.1
2031	29	MLB MLE	ARI	7	7	44	184	36	26	6	100%	6.2	19.7%	14.1%	5.6%	3.2%	5.31	5.38	+0.0
2032	30	MLB MLE	ARI	7	7	39	166	32	24	6	100%	5.6	19.3%	14.4%	4.9%	3.4%	5.46	5.55	-0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	ARI	3	3	18	76	15	11	2	100%	6.0	19.5%	14.4%	5.1%	2.9%	5.28	5.26	+0.0
2029	27	MLB CTX	ARI	4	4	25	106	21	15	3	100%	6.2	19.8%	14.1%	5.7%	3.0%	5.22	5.23	+0.0
2030	28	MLB CTX	ARI	5	5	29	122	24	17	4	100%	5.8	19.8%	14.0%	5.8%	3.1%	5.23	5.27	+0.0
2031	29	MLB CTX	ARI	5	5	30	127	25	18	4	100%	6.0	19.7%	14.1%	5.6%	3.2%	5.31	5.38	+0.0
2032	30	MLB CTX	ARI	5	5	29	122	24	18	4	100%	5.8	19.3%	14.4%	4.9%	3.4%	5.46	5.55	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		22	22	130	550	108	78	17	100%	5.9	19.6%	14.2%	5.4%	3.2%	5.30	4.97	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	166	120	26	100%	6.0	19.6%	14.2%	5.4%	3.2%	5.30	4.97	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		33	30	133	587	117	92	15	91%	4.0	19.9%	15.6%	4.2%	2.5%	3.65	4.78	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	45	200	883	175	138	22	91%	4.0	19.9%	15.6%	4.2%	2.5%	3.65	4.78	+0.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Hillsboro Hops · 83 IPFIP 4.04 → 5.05 (+1.01)K% 23.3% → 17.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.31%	—	×0.770	17.95%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.55%	—	×1.150	15.58%
HR / BF /BF	2.17%	÷1.000	×1.250	2.71%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.04 → 5.05, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AVisalia Rawhide · 50 IPFIP 3.16 → 4.33 (+1.17)K% 31.2% → 23.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.19%	—	×0.740	23.08%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.30%	—	×1.180	15.70%
HR / BF /BF	1.83%	÷1.102	×1.300	2.16%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 120).

Result: FIP 3.16 → 4.33, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Caden Grice (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.9%	—	5.25	19.7%	5.5%	156	-0.18	—	—	—
Jimmy Robbins L 2023 · 4.69 FIP	25	SP-	4.69	17.8%	15.2%	2.1%	.290	5.73	19.6%	3.8%	13	+1.04	3.85	176	87
Erik Rivera L 2024 · 5.71 FIP	23	SP-	5.71	19.0%	14.6%	4.3%	.255	4.74	23.9%	6.3%	106	-0.97	4.42	141	79
Miguel Cienfuegos L 2023 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP	5.12	13.6%	10.5%	3.4%	.257	4.54	14.3%	5.8%	242	-0.58	2.95	313	79
Christian MacLeod L 2024 · 4.77 FIP	24	SP	4.77	21.5%	13.6%	3.2%	.269	4.50	18.0%	3.0%	128	-0.27	3.88	280	77
Kyle Carr L 2024 · 4.24 FIP	22	SP	4.24	16.2%	14.0%	1.3%	.310	4.47	18.6%	7.1%	223	+0.23	4.19	327	77
Brandon Claussen L 2004 · 4.80 FIP	25	SP	4.80	14.4%	10.5%	2.9%	.314	4.56	16.5%	9.2%	244	-0.24	4.41	310	77
Brett Adcock L 2019 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP	5.34	17.4%	13.6%	3.6%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	301	76
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	76
Dylan Carmouche L 2024 · 4.35 FIP	22	SP	4.35	19.0%	11.6%	2.5%	.332	5.21	16.7%	6.8%	116	+0.86	4.35	239	73
Drew Dowd L 2024 · 4.36 FIP	22	SP	4.36	16.1%	11.7%	2.1%	.280	3.13	24.9%	16.0%	55	-1.23	3.13	166	73
Lucas Gordon L 2024 · 5.61 FIP	22	SP	5.61	16.3%	15.7%	3.5%	.212	5.08	20.0%	8.1%	225	-0.53	4.44	338	73
Jaylen Nowlin L 2024 · 5.15 FIP	23	SP-	5.15	18.7%	12.6%	3.7%	.299	4.77	21.7%	3.2%	100	-0.38	3.45	372	73
Justin Marks L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	27	SP-	4.60	15.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.323	3.88	19.0%	9.1%	216	-0.72	3.83	324	72
John Koronka L 2005 · 4.77 FIP	25	SP-	4.77	13.2%	10.5%	2.6%	.304	4.81	10.5%	2.2%	135	+0.04	3.99	151	71
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP-	5.03	16.0%	10.1%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	5.03	116	71
Thomas Szapucki L 2021 · 4.96 FIP	25	SP	4.96	18.7%	15.2%	2.7%	.311	3.82	29.1%	18.1%	87	-1.14	2.94	245	71
Matt Portland L 2018 · 4.64 FIP	24	SP-	4.64	17.4%	11.0%	2.9%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	3.61	143	71
Tim Berry L 2016 · 5.66 FIP	25	SP-	5.66	11.3%	13.5%	3.3%	.380	4.04	20.0%	1.8%	44	-1.62	4.04	196	71
Scott DeCecco L 2015 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP-	4.55	14.5%	11.5%	2.2%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.55	125	71
Jack Snodgrass L 2015 · 4.66 FIP	27	SP-	4.66	12.6%	10.7%	2.3%	.278	5.01	15.7%	5.6%	45	+0.35	4.66	118	71

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.5	51	19.4%	14.4%	1.19	5.32
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*