Caden Grice — OGILVIE

Caden Grice P Hillsboro Hops

Age 24 LHP 6'6" / 250 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 0.9 · 2030

2026 ROS PROJECTION83 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111119vR 127

ERA4.93

FIP4.93

K%22.9%

BB%13.9%

K-BB%8.9%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 88 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$0M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF5050

CMD3550

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2030	Arb-1	$2M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-2	$2M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$2M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	22	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	12	11	50	218	68	29	4	92%	4.2	23.1%	15.7%	7.4%	2.2%	3.75	4.33	—
2024	22	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	12	11	50	218	68	29	4	92%	4.2	23.1%	15.7%	7.4%	2.2%	3.75	4.33	—
2024	22	A RAW	Visalia Rawhide	12	11	50	218	68	29	4	92%	4.2	31.2%	13.3%	17.9%	1.8%	3.75	3.16	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Hillsboro Hops	21	19	83	369	86	50	8	90%	3.9	17.9%	15.6%	2.4%	2.7%	3.59	5.05	—
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Hillsboro Hops	21	19	83	369	86	50	8	90%	3.9	17.9%	15.6%	2.4%	2.7%	3.59	5.05	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A+ RAW	ARI	21	19	83	369	86	50	8	90%	3.9	23.3%	13.6%	9.8%	2.2%	3.59	4.04	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	ARI	1	1	6	24	5	3	1	100%	5.7	22.9%	13.9%	8.9%	3.0%	4.93	4.93	-0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	ARI	—	—	88	393	91	53	9	—	—	23.3%	13.6%	9.7%	2.2%	3.68	5.04	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	ARI	14	14	82	346	80	43	10	100%	5.9	23.2%	12.3%	10.9%	2.9%	4.76	4.70	+0.2
2028	26	MLB MLE	ARI	14	14	82	346	81	41	10	100%	5.9	23.3%	11.9%	11.4%	2.9%	4.67	4.64	+0.2
2029	27	MLB MLE	ARI	13	13	81	341	79	40	10	100%	6.2	23.2%	11.8%	11.4%	3.0%	4.66	4.66	+0.2
2030	28	MLB MLE	ARI	13	13	78	331	83	37	10	100%	6.0	25.1%	11.0%	14.0%	3.1%	4.54	4.46	+0.4
2031	29	MLB MLE	ARI	12	12	75	316	78	36	10	100%	6.2	24.8%	11.3%	13.5%	3.2%	4.57	4.59	+0.3
2032	30	MLB MLE	ARI	12	12	70	297	73	34	10	100%	5.9	24.5%	11.6%	12.9%	3.4%	4.69	4.77	+0.1
2033	31	MLB MLE	ARI	11	11	66	277	67	33	10	100%	6.0	24.1%	11.9%	12.1%	3.7%	4.86	4.97	-0.1
2027	25	MLB CTX	ARI	6	6	35	148	34	18	4	100%	5.8	23.2%	12.3%	10.9%	2.8%	4.67	4.61	+0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	ARI	9	9	54	228	53	27	6	100%	6.0	23.3%	11.9%	11.4%	2.8%	4.58	4.55	+0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	ARI	10	10	62	262	61	31	7	100%	6.2	23.2%	11.8%	11.4%	2.8%	4.57	4.57	+0.2
2030	28	MLB CTX	ARI	11	11	66	279	70	31	8	100%	6.0	25.1%	11.0%	14.0%	2.9%	4.45	4.37	+0.3
2031	29	MLB CTX	ARI	11	11	66	279	69	31	9	100%	6.0	24.8%	11.3%	13.5%	3.1%	4.47	4.49	+0.2
2032	30	MLB CTX	ARI	10	10	63	266	65	31	9	100%	6.3	24.5%	11.6%	12.9%	3.3%	4.59	4.67	+0.1
2033	31	MLB CTX	ARI	10	10	60	253	61	30	9	100%	6.0	24.1%	11.9%	12.1%	3.5%	4.75	4.86	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		68	68	407	1719	414	200	52	100%	6.0	24.1%	11.6%	12.5%	3.0%	4.57	4.21	+3.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	203	98	26	100%	6.0	24.1%	11.6%	12.5%	3.0%	4.57	4.21	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		33	30	133	587	117	92	15	91%	4.0	19.9%	15.6%	4.2%	2.5%	3.65	4.78	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	45	200	883	175	138	22	91%	4.0	19.9%	15.6%	4.2%	2.5%	3.65	4.78	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Caden Grice (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.93	22.9%	13.9%	3.0%	—	4.67	23.2%	11.2%	245	-0.26	—	—	—
Samy Natera Jr. L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.29	30.4%	16.9%	124	-1.85	1.94	208	86
Sam Weatherly L 2021 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.0%	12.8%	2.5%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.07	4.07	209	85
Jimmy Robbins L 2022 · 3.85 FIP	24	SP-	3.85	23.3%	11.3%	2.3%	.286	4.83	17.9%	2.7%	99	+0.98	3.85	176	81
Dalton Rogers L 2023 · 4.31 FIP	22	SP	4.31	25.3%	16.7%	2.2%	.327	4.58	19.6%	4.1%	268	+0.27	3.47	364	81
Jeremy Wu-Yelland L 2021 · 4.44 FIP	22	SP	4.44	19.6%	14.6%	2.1%	.266	3.90	20.3%	3.7%	33	-0.54	2.93	175	81
Evan Lee L 2021 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	24.2%	11.1%	2.5%	.333	4.49	21.0%	2.7%	52	+0.65	3.82	129	80
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	79
T.J. Sikkema L 2022 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	21.9%	9.0%	3.9%	.298	4.54	16.8%	7.5%	231	-0.01	3.57	300	79
Doug Nikhazy L 2023 · 5.39 FIP	23	SP	5.39	21.9%	16.9%	3.6%	.304	4.73	19.6%	8.6%	256	-0.66	4.16	461	79
Dominic Perachi L 2023 · 5.19 FIP	22	SP-	5.19	17.5%	13.9%	3.3%	.324	3.80	17.1%	6.8%	186	-1.39	3.33	277	79
Brian Holmes L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	21.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.333	4.78	17.3%	8.0%	104	+0.46	3.60	205	79
Christian MacLeod L 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	16.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.312	4.60	19.5%	5.2%	212	+0.08	3.90	277	78
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	75
Grant Wolfram L 2021 · 5.44 FIP	24	SP-	5.44	25.2%	12.9%	5.1%	.327	3.95	22.8%	10.7%	176	-1.49	2.41	418	75
Michel Gelabert L 2019 · 4.36 FIP	22	SP	4.36	18.7%	12.1%	2.4%	.248	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	107	75
Dante Biasi L 2022 · 4.91 FIP	24	SP-	4.91	18.7%	15.9%	2.5%	.288	6.65	20.1%	1.7%	69	+1.74	4.91	224	75
Tyler Schweitzer L 2023 · 4.50 FIP	22	SP	4.50	19.6%	11.3%	3.0%	.293	4.16	16.8%	8.8%	318	-0.34	3.98	425	75
Pete Hansen L 2023 · 4.18 FIP	23	SP	4.18	20.1%	9.9%	2.8%	.283	3.89	17.8%	10.2%	362	-0.29	3.77	475	75
Brett Adcock L 2019 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP	5.34	17.4%	13.6%	3.6%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	301	74
Shane Drohan L 2023 · 5.18 FIP	24	SP	5.18	19.3%	12.1%	4.0%	.308	3.49	24.7%	15.9%	190	-1.69	2.88	532	74

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.0	75	23.9%	11.9%	1.22	4.70
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58