Caden Grice
P
Hillsboro Hops
Age 24
LHP
6'6" / 250 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 0.5 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION55 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 107116vR 125
ERA4.68
FIP4.68
K%22.9%
BB%12.0%
K-BB%10.9%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 119 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | A | Visalia Rawhide | 12 | 11 | 50 | 218 | 68 | 29 | 4 | 92% | 4.2 | 23.1% | 15.7% | 7.4% | 2.0% | 3.75 | 4.23 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A | Visalia Rawhide | 12 | 11 | 50 | 218 | 68 | 29 | 4 | 92% | 4.2 | 31.2% | 13.3% | 17.9% | 1.8% | 3.75 | 3.16 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | A+ | Hillsboro Hops | 14 | 14 | 55 | 245 | 55 | 33 | 6 | 100% | 3.9 | 17.3% | 15.5% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 3.62 | 5.28 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | ARI | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 63 | 33 | 8 | 100% | 5.4 | 22.9% | 12.0% | 10.9% | 2.9% | 4.68 | 4.68 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22.9% | 12.0% | 10.9% | 3.0% | 4.72 | 4.72 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 119 | 519 | 118 | 66 | 14 | — | — | 22.7% | 12.7% | 10.0% | 2.7% | 4.20 | 4.96 | +0.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 22.9% | 12.0% | 10.9% | 3.0% | 4.72 | 4.34 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | ARI | 12 | 12 | 68 | 287 | 67 | 32 | 8 | 100% | 5.7 | 23.3% | 11.0% | 12.3% | 2.9% | 4.57 | 4.52 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | ARI | 11 | 11 | 68 | 287 | 68 | 31 | 8 | 100% | 6.2 | 23.5% | 10.8% | 12.7% | 2.9% | 4.51 | 4.48 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 11 | 11 | 67 | 283 | 67 | 31 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.5% | 10.8% | 12.7% | 3.0% | 4.51 | 4.51 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | ARI | 5 | 5 | 29 | 122 | 29 | 14 | 4 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.3% | 11.0% | 12.3% | 3.0% | 4.61 | 4.56 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | ARI | 8 | 8 | 45 | 190 | 45 | 21 | 6 | 100% | 5.6 | 23.5% | 10.8% | 12.7% | 3.0% | 4.55 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 9 | 9 | 52 | 220 | 52 | 24 | 7 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.5% | 10.8% | 12.7% | 3.1% | 4.55 | 4.55 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 21 | 21 | 127 | 534 | 125 | 58 | 16 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.5% | 10.9% | 12.6% | 3.0% | 4.56 | 4.16 | +1.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 198 | 92 | 25 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.5% | 10.9% | 12.6% | 3.0% | 4.56 | 4.16 | +2.9 | ||
| Career | — | 26 | 25 | 105 | 463 | 93 | 72 | 12 | 96% | 4.0 | 20.0% | 15.6% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 3.69 | 4.79 | +0.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 50 | 48 | 200 | 882 | 177 | 137 | 23 | 96% | 4.0 | 20.0% | 15.6% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 3.69 | 4.79 | +1.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Caden Grice (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.68 | 22.9% | 12.0% | 2.9% | — | 4.50 | 23.5% | 12.5% | 203 | -0.18 | — | — | — |
| T.J. Sikkema L 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.71 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 4.2% | .298 | 4.64 | 16.9% | 7.4% | 231 | -0.07 | 3.39 | 300 | 84 |
| Evan Lee L 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.00 | 24.2% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .333 | 4.48 | 21.0% | 2.7% | 52 | +0.48 | 3.84 | 129 | 84 |
| Zach Thornton L 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.22 | 20.9% | 10.1% | 2.9% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.95 | 221 | 82 |
| Jack Choate L 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.11 | 22.4% | 12.6% | 2.4% | .317 | 3.84 | 24.2% | 6.1% | 32 | -0.27 | 2.75 | 315 | 80 |
| Christian MacLeod L 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.83 | 21.5% | 13.6% | 3.3% | .269 | 4.13 | 20.5% | 7.4% | 96 | -0.70 | 3.84 | 249 | 80 |
| Brian Holmes L 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.25 | 21.0% | 9.9% | 3.0% | .333 | 4.75 | 17.3% | 8.0% | 104 | +0.50 | 3.42 | 205 | 80 |
| Jimmy Robbins L 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.89 | 23.3% | 11.3% | 2.4% | .286 | 4.89 | 18.1% | 2.5% | 99 | +1.00 | 3.89 | 176 | 80 |
| A.J. Block L 2025 · 3.68 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.68 | 22.8% | 10.0% | 2.3% | .262 | 5.86 | 20.1% | 8.4% | 51 | +2.18 | 3.64 | 203 | 79 |
| Hayden Mullins L 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.72 | 24.0% | 13.7% | 1.7% | .240 | 4.62 | 27.5% | 11.6% | 49 | +0.90 | 3.72 | 239 | 79 |
| Tate Kuehner L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.73 | 21.5% | 13.8% | 1.3% | .295 | 3.97 | 18.7% | 7.0% | 40 | +0.24 | 3.73 | 245 | 78 |
| Damon Jones L 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.85 | 25.9% | 13.8% | 2.2% | .266 | 4.25 | 25.5% | 7.4% | 41 | +0.40 | 3.85 | 269 | 77 |
| Will Dion L 2026 · 5.01 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.01 | 19.7% | 10.9% | 4.0% | .309 | 3.25 | 22.6% | 14.9% | 148 | -1.76 | 2.44 | 496 | 76 |
| Michel Gelabert L 2024 · 4.58 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.58 | 18.7% | 12.1% | 2.8% | .248 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.36 | 107 | 76 |
| Dalton Pence L 2025 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.89 | 22.0% | 8.1% | 3.0% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.32 | 153 | 76 |
| Aidan Deakins L 2024 · 5.29 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.29 | 17.1% | 11.1% | 4.1% | .267 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 119 | 75 |
| James Paxton L 2028 · 4.26 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.26 | 18.9% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .288 | 3.00 | 27.7% | 21.7% | 468 | -1.26 | 2.48 | 924 | 74 |
| Connor Wietgrefe L 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.26 | 18.7% | 8.5% | 3.0% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 200 | 74 |
| Brycen Mautz L 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.64 | 23.2% | 7.8% | 2.8% | .281 | 4.54 | 19.8% | 2.8% | 69 | +0.90 | 3.61 | 409 | 74 |
| Sebastian Gongora L 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.81 | 18.5% | 7.5% | 2.4% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 152 | 74 |
| Keegan Akin L 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.32 | 22.9% | 12.7% | 2.8% | .329 | 3.96 | 22.3% | 14.5% | 202 | -0.36 | 2.54 | 743 | 73 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 68 | 23.3% | 11.2% | 1.14 | 4.57 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Keegan Thompson ('24) | 4 | 57 | 23.0% | 11.3% | 1.19 | 3.64 |