Jaylen Nowlin
P
Wichita Wind Surge
+0.0
WAR
Age 25
LHP
6'1" / 180 lbs
AA
peak 0.1 · 2027
ERA5.03
FIP5.03
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.0%
BB%12.9%
K-BB%8.0%
IP71
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2027
STUF4545
CTRL2525
CMD3535
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 20 | ROK | FCL Twins | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | — | — | — | 81.00 | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A+ | Cedar Rapids Kernels | 22 | 14 | 71 | 309 | 111 | 35 | 4 | 26.8% | 13.3% | 1.7% | 3.80 | 3.45 | +1.3 |
| 2023 | 22 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | 24 | 20 | 105 | 472 | 114 | 45 | 15 | 18.9% | 10.7% | 3.4% | 4.44 | 4.71 | +0.7 |
| 2024 | 23 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | 24 | 15 | 98 | 432 | 99 | 48 | 12 | 18.7% | 12.6% | 3.8% | 4.85 | 5.21 | +0.1 |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | 41 | 0 | 54 | 248 | 62 | 42 | 7 | 20.2% | 18.6% | 2.6% | 5.13 | 5.17 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | 3 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 8 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | MIN | 13 | 13 | 71 | 300 | 61 | 46 | 9 | 20.4% | 15.4% | 3.1% | 5.39 | 5.39 | -0.3 |
| 2026 Total | 25 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 75 | 314 | 69 | 47 | 9 | 22.0% | 15.0% | 2.9% | 5.10 | 5.10 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | MIN | 13 | 13 | 71 | 300 | 63 | 44 | 9 | 20.9% | 14.7% | 3.1% | 5.27 | 5.26 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | MIN | 13 | 13 | 70 | 298 | 63 | 43 | 9 | 21.1% | 14.3% | 3.1% | 5.20 | 5.20 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | MIN | 13 | 13 | 69 | 293 | 62 | 41 | 9 | 21.2% | 14.1% | 3.1% | 5.17 | 5.18 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | MIN | 12 | 12 | 68 | 286 | 60 | 40 | 9 | 21.1% | 14.1% | 3.1% | 5.18 | 5.21 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | MIN | 12 | 12 | 66 | 278 | 58 | 39 | 9 | 20.9% | 14.2% | 3.2% | 5.23 | 5.27 | -0.2 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | MIN | 12 | 12 | 64 | 268 | 55 | 38 | 9 | 20.6% | 14.3% | 3.3% | 5.30 | 5.34 | -0.3 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | MIN | 11 | 11 | 61 | 258 | 52 | 37 | 9 | 20.4% | 14.5% | 3.4% | 5.38 | 5.43 | -0.3 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | MIN | 58 | — | 58 | 246 | 49 | 36 | 8 | 20.1% | 14.6% | 3.4% | 5.47 | 5.53 | -0.4 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | MIN | 55 | — | 55 | 234 | 46 | 35 | 8 | 19.7% | 14.8% | 3.5% | 5.57 | 5.64 | -0.4 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | MIN | 52 | — | 52 | 220 | 43 | 33 | 8 | 19.3% | 15.1% | 3.6% | 5.68 | 5.76 | -0.5 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | MIN | 49 | — | 49 | 206 | 39 | 32 | 8 | 18.9% | 15.3% | 3.8% | 5.81 | 5.89 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 115 | 49 | 333 | 1480 | 312 | 195 | 44 | 21.1% | 13.2% | 3.0% | 4.56 | 4.62 | +2.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 69 | 29 | 200 | 888 | 187 | 117 | 26 | 21.1% | 13.2% | 3.0% | 4.56 | 4.62 | +1.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jaylen Nowlin (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.39 | 20.4% | 15.4% | 3.1% | — | 5.21 | 21.0% | 6.6% | 211 | -0.18 | — | — | — |
| Adam Tulloch L 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.73 | 17.4% | 15.7% | 2.0% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 212 | 85 |
| Chris Reed L 2026 · 4.92 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.92 | 15.4% | 14.5% | 2.3% | .284 | 4.70 | 16.4% | 6.6% | 81 | -0.22 | 4.70 | 137 | 84 |
| Brian Marconi L 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.03 | 20.3% | 18.2% | 2.5% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 101 | 84 |
| Chandler Jozwiak L 2026 · 5.32 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.32 | 16.9% | 15.3% | 3.1% | .259 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.87 | 161 | 83 |
| Mitchell Tyranski L 2026 · 5.18 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.18 | 20.4% | 13.6% | 3.8% | .269 | 4.08 | 20.7% | 6.1% | 103 | -1.10 | 3.46 | 145 | 83 |
| Nick Lee L 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.02 | 19.0% | 19.7% | 1.9% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.76 | 102 | 83 |
| Frank Garces L 2026 · 5.62 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.62 | 16.7% | 13.3% | 4.1% | .267 | 4.40 | 16.9% | 8.9% | 114 | -1.22 | 4.40 | 306 | 82 |
| Brendan Cellucci L 2026 · 5.01 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.01 | 21.2% | 14.6% | 3.4% | .381 | 4.26 | 24.6% | 7.7% | 86 | -0.75 | 3.98 | 236 | 82 |
| Graeme Stinson L 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.89 | 19.5% | 15.6% | 2.7% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 146 | 82 |
| Ty Madrigal L 2026 · 5.77 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.77 | 17.6% | 15.2% | 4.1% | .304 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.54 | 107 | 81 |
| Julian Bosnic L 2026 · 5.06 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.06 | 20.0% | 19.6% | 2.1% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 136 | 81 |
| T.J. Sikkema L 2026 · 5.93 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.93 | 16.1% | 13.2% | 4.6% | .245 | 3.85 | 17.2% | 9.5% | 159 | -2.08 | 3.50 | 300 | 81 |
| Joe Kemlage L 2025 · 5.32 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.32 | 17.6% | 11.7% | 4.0% | .349 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.41 | 128 | 81 |
| Cy Nielson L 2025 · 4.33 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.33 | 20.9% | 12.7% | 2.5% | .361 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 161 | 80 |
| José Manuel Fernández L 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.76 | 21.4% | 13.1% | 3.3% | .253 | 5.10 | 13.6% | 4.9% | 61 | +0.34 | 3.35 | 263 | 80 |
| Winston Lavendier L 2025 · 5.06 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.06 | 17.8% | 12.9% | 3.4% | .344 | 4.95 | 14.2% | 4.7% | 21 | -0.11 | 2.98 | 179 | 80 |
| Anderson Polanco L 2026 · 5.94 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.94 | 19.9% | 20.9% | 3.4% | .298 | 5.02 | 18.9% | 2.6% | 47 | -0.92 | 4.09 | 316 | 80 |
| Houston Harding L 2026 · 5.75 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.75 | 17.9% | 15.0% | 4.1% | .307 | 4.39 | 16.9% | 5.8% | 98 | -1.36 | 3.41 | 195 | 80 |
| Fabian Williamson L 2027 · 5.30 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.30 | 17.4% | 17.9% | 2.5% | .289 | 4.18 | 20.0% | 8.2% | 77 | -1.12 | 3.42 | 154 | 80 |
| Noah Dean L 2025 · 5.60 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.60 | 21.1% | 18.6% | 3.5% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.39 | 206 | 80 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.