Jaylen Nowlin — OGILVIE

Jaylen Nowlin P Wichita Wind Surge

Age 25 LHP 6'1" / 180 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION47 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126134vR 142

ERA5.72

FIP5.72

K%19.0%

BB%17.2%

K-BB%1.8%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 53 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL2525

CMD3535

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	20	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	1	0	0	5	1	2	0	0%	0.3	20.0%	40.0%	-20.0%	0.0%	81.00	6.48	—
2021	20	ROK RAW	FCL Twins	1	0	0	5	1	2	0	0%	0.3	20.0%	40.0%	-20.0%	0.0%	81.00	15.10	—
2022	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	14	71	309	111	35	4	64%	3.2	26.8%	13.3%	13.5%	1.7%	3.80	3.45	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	14	71	309	111	35	4	64%	3.2	35.9%	11.3%	24.6%	1.3%	3.80	2.18	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	20	105	472	114	45	15	83%	4.4	18.9%	10.7%	8.2%	3.4%	4.44	4.73	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	20	105	472	114	45	15	83%	4.4	18.9%	10.7%	8.2%	3.4%	4.44	4.73	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	20	105	472	114	45	15	83%	4.4	24.2%	9.5%	14.6%	3.2%	4.44	4.07	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	15	98	432	99	48	12	62%	4.1	18.7%	12.6%	6.1%	3.7%	4.85	5.15	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	15	98	432	99	48	12	62%	4.1	18.7%	12.6%	6.1%	3.7%	4.85	5.15	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	15	98	432	99	48	12	62%	4.1	22.9%	11.1%	11.8%	2.8%	4.85	4.14	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	54	248	62	42	7	0%	1.3	20.2%	18.6%	1.6%	2.6%	5.13	5.17	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	54	248	62	42	7	0%	1.3	20.2%	18.6%	1.6%	2.6%	5.13	5.17	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	0	54	248	62	42	7	0%	1.3	25.0%	16.9%	8.1%	2.8%	5.13	4.81	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	40	0	47	223	64	37	3	0%	1.2	23.2%	18.3%	5.0%	1.6%	5.94	4.33	—
YTD	25	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	40	0	47	223	64	37	3	0%	1.2	23.2%	18.3%	5.0%	1.6%	5.94	4.33	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	AA RAW	MIN	40	0	47	223	64	37	3	0%	1.2	28.7%	16.6%	12.1%	1.3%	5.94	3.52	—
ROS	25	MLB MLE	MIN	6	0	6	27	5	5	1	0%	1.1	19.0%	17.2%	1.8%	3.1%	5.72	5.72	-0.1
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	MIN	—	—	53	250	69	42	4	—	—	27.7%	16.7%	11.0%	1.5%	5.91	4.50	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	MIN	84	0	88	374	73	60	11	0%	1.1	19.5%	16.2%	3.3%	3.0%	5.56	5.56	-1.0
2028	27	MLB MLE	MIN	83	0	87	368	72	57	11	0%	1.1	19.6%	15.6%	4.0%	3.1%	5.48	5.50	-0.9
2029	28	MLB MLE	MIN	81	0	85	357	70	55	11	0%	1.0	19.6%	15.4%	4.3%	3.2%	5.48	5.52	-0.9
2030	29	MLB MLE	MIN	77	0	81	341	66	53	11	0%	1.0	19.4%	15.4%	4.1%	3.3%	5.55	5.62	-1.0
2031	30	MLB MLE	MIN	72	0	76	321	68	48	11	0%	1.1	21.1%	14.9%	6.2%	3.5%	5.53	5.52	-0.8
2027	26	MLB CTX	MIN	37	0	39	165	32	27	5	0%	1.1	19.5%	16.2%	3.3%	3.0%	5.56	5.56	-0.4
2028	27	MLB CTX	MIN	52	0	55	232	46	36	7	0%	1.1	19.6%	15.6%	4.0%	3.1%	5.48	5.50	-0.6
2029	28	MLB CTX	MIN	61	0	64	270	53	42	9	0%	1.0	19.6%	15.4%	4.3%	3.2%	5.48	5.52	-0.7
2030	29	MLB CTX	MIN	63	0	66	279	54	43	9	0%	1.0	19.4%	15.4%	4.1%	3.3%	5.55	5.62	-0.8
2031	30	MLB CTX	MIN	62	0	65	274	58	41	10	0%	1.0	21.1%	14.9%	6.2%	3.5%	5.53	5.52	-0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		276	0	289	1222	243	188	40	0%	1.0	19.9%	15.4%	4.5%	3.3%	5.52	5.16	-2.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	168	130	28	0%	1.1	19.9%	15.4%	4.5%	3.3%	5.52	5.16	-1.4
Career	—	MLE		152	49	376	1689	356	235	47	32%	2.5	21.1%	13.9%	7.2%	2.8%	4.78	4.62	-4.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		81	26	200	898	189	125	25	32%	2.5	21.1%	13.9%	7.2%	2.8%	4.78	4.62	-2.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jaylen Nowlin (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.72	19.0%	17.2%	3.1%	—	5.53	19.6%	3.9%	260	-0.19	—	—	—
Braeden Fausnaught L 2023 · 4.77 FIP	24	SW	4.77	16.9%	16.4%	1.8%	.287	4.60	17.9%	9.7%	179	-0.17	4.43	242	84
Matt Mikulski L 2023 · 6.17 FIP	24	SW	6.17	16.4%	18.6%	3.8%	.303	5.90	16.3%	-3.3%	78	-0.27	4.92	223	84
Anderson Polanco L 2018 · 5.95 FIP	25	SW	5.95	19.9%	20.9%	3.4%	.298	5.09	18.9%	2.6%	47	-0.86	4.10	316	83
Graeme Stinson L 2023 · 4.85 FIP	25	SU	4.85	19.5%	15.6%	2.6%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	146	81
Larson Kindreich L 2023 · 5.29 FIP	24	SW	5.29	21.5%	18.8%	3.0%	.269	4.68	23.0%	9.0%	79	-0.61	4.16	214	80
Fabian Williamson L 2015 · 5.31 FIP	26	SU	5.31	17.4%	17.9%	2.6%	.289	4.16	20.0%	8.2%	77	-1.15	3.39	154	79
Evan Shawver L 2023 · 5.78 FIP	23	SW	5.78	15.9%	16.5%	3.5%	.327	4.11	18.1%	7.1%	162	-1.67	3.92	278	79
Chris Reed L 2015 · 4.92 FIP	25	SU	4.92	15.4%	14.5%	2.3%	.284	4.67	16.4%	6.6%	81	-0.25	4.67	137	79
John Kilichowski L 2018 · 4.99 FIP	24	SU	4.99	17.6%	16.2%	2.4%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	4.10	115	78
Houston Harding L 2023 · 5.74 FIP	25	SU	5.74	17.9%	15.0%	4.1%	.307	4.83	14.4%	3.1%	142	-0.91	3.41	239	78
Brian Marconi L 2022 · 5.02 FIP	25	SU	5.02	20.3%	18.2%	2.4%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.89	101	77
Nick Lee L 2016 · 4.96 FIP	25	SU	4.96	19.0%	19.7%	1.8%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.77	102	77
Jackson Lancaster L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	24	SU	5.14	18.9%	17.6%	2.6%	.315	5.15	19.7%	6.8%	122	+0.01	4.15	142	77
Ty Madrigal L 2022 · 5.75 FIP	25	SU	5.75	17.6%	15.2%	4.0%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	107	77
Davis Schwab L 2022 · 5.70 FIP	25	SU	5.70	20.3%	18.7%	3.5%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	114	76
Julian Bosnic L 2023 · 5.72 FIP	23	SU	5.72	22.5%	21.0%	3.4%	.206	4.74	19.1%	-0.1%	90	-0.98	4.31	136	76
Dante Biasi L 2023 · 6.65 FIP	25	SU	6.65	20.1%	18.4%	5.3%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	4.91	224	75
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	75
Nicolo Pinazzi L 2023 · 6.79 FIP	23	SU	6.79	19.3%	26.9%	3.5%	.307	2.58	30.1%	16.3%	62	-4.21	2.58	155	75
Sean Keselica L 2018 · 5.33 FIP	25	SU	5.33	15.9%	18.5%	2.2%	.226	4.47	18.0%	3.5%	52	-0.86	2.79	235	75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.4	81	19.7%	15.7%	1.24	5.55
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Michael Kopech ('24)	1.9	96	26.1%	12.5%	1.45	4.15