Jaylen Nowlin
P
Wichita Wind Surge
Age 25
LHP
6'1" / 180 lbs
AA
2026 ROS PROJECTION32 act + 70 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130140vR 149
ERA5.79
FIP5.79
K%19.0%
BB%17.2%
K-BB%1.8%
ROS IP70
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 102 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 20 | ROK | FCL Twins | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0.3 | 20.0% | 40.0% | -20.0% | 0.0% | 81.00 | 6.48 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | ROK | FCL Twins | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0.3 | 20.0% | 40.0% | -20.0% | 0.0% | 81.00 | 15.10 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 14 | 71 | 309 | 111 | 35 | 4 | 64% | 3.2 | 26.8% | 13.3% | 13.5% | 1.7% | 3.80 | 3.48 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 14 | 71 | 309 | 111 | 35 | 4 | 64% | 3.2 | 35.9% | 11.3% | 24.6% | 1.3% | 3.80 | 2.18 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 20 | 105 | 472 | 114 | 45 | 15 | 83% | 4.4 | 18.9% | 10.7% | 8.2% | 3.0% | 4.44 | 4.51 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 20 | 105 | 472 | 114 | 45 | 15 | 83% | 4.4 | 24.2% | 9.5% | 14.6% | 3.2% | 4.44 | 4.07 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 15 | 98 | 432 | 99 | 48 | 12 | 62% | 4.1 | 18.7% | 12.6% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 4.85 | 5.61 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 15 | 98 | 432 | 99 | 48 | 12 | 62% | 4.1 | 22.9% | 11.1% | 11.8% | 2.8% | 4.85 | 4.14 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 0 | 54 | 248 | 62 | 42 | 7 | 0% | 1.3 | 20.2% | 18.6% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 5.13 | 5.19 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 0 | 54 | 248 | 62 | 42 | 7 | 0% | 1.3 | 25.0% | 16.9% | 8.1% | 2.8% | 5.13 | 4.81 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | 25 | 0 | 32 | 150 | 38 | 24 | 3 | 0% | 1.3 | 20.5% | 17.6% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 5.34 | 4.91 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | MIN | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 56 | 51 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.0% | 17.2% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 5.79 | 5.79 | -0.8 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | MIN | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.0% | 17.2% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 5.79 | 5.79 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 102 | 446 | 94 | 75 | 12 | — | — | 21.1% | 16.8% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 5.65 | 5.52 | -0.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 19.0% | 17.2% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 5.79 | 5.41 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | MIN | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 58 | 48 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.6% | 16.3% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 5.63 | 5.62 | -0.7 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | MIN | 66 | 0 | 69 | 291 | 58 | 46 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.9% | 15.9% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 5.55 | 5.56 | -0.7 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | MIN | 30 | 0 | 31 | 131 | 26 | 21 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.6% | 16.3% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 5.63 | 5.62 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | MIN | 42 | 0 | 44 | 186 | 37 | 29 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.9% | 15.9% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 5.55 | 5.56 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 72 | 0 | 76 | 320 | 63 | 51 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.7% | 16.1% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 5.59 | 5.21 | -0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 166 | 134 | 26 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.7% | 16.1% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 5.59 | 5.21 | +0.4 | ||
| Career | — | 137 | 49 | 361 | 1616 | 335 | 221 | 49 | 36% | 2.6 | 20.7% | 13.7% | 7.1% | 3.0% | 4.68 | 4.75 | +2.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 76 | 27 | 200 | 894 | 185 | 122 | 27 | 36% | 2.6 | 20.7% | 13.7% | 7.1% | 3.0% | 4.68 | 4.75 | +1.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jaylen Nowlin (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.79 | 19.0% | 17.2% | 3.2% | — | 5.59 | 19.7% | 3.6% | 139 | -0.20 | — | — | — |
| Anderson Polanco L 2026 · 6.02 FIP | 25 | SW | 6.02 | 19.9% | 20.9% | 3.5% | .298 | 5.41 | 18.9% | 2.6% | 47 | -0.61 | 4.00 | 316 | 83 |
| Adam Tulloch L 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.79 | 17.4% | 15.7% | 2.1% | .284 | 5.74 | 18.7% | -4.6% | 22 | +0.95 | 4.12 | 234 | 79 |
| Graeme Stinson L 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.75 | 19.5% | 15.6% | 2.4% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 146 | 79 |
| Houston Harding L 2026 · 5.80 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.80 | 17.9% | 15.0% | 4.2% | .307 | 4.93 | 14.8% | 2.9% | 135 | -0.87 | 3.39 | 232 | 77 |
| John Kilichowski L 2025 · 5.26 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.26 | 17.6% | 16.2% | 2.9% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 115 | 76 |
| Matt Mikulski L 2026 · 6.16 FIP | 25 | SU | 6.16 | 15.3% | 17.1% | 4.0% | .275 | 4.98 | 19.5% | -8.3% | 18 | -1.18 | 4.80 | 223 | 76 |
| Chris Reed L 2026 · 4.92 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.92 | 15.4% | 14.5% | 2.3% | .284 | 4.84 | 16.4% | 6.6% | 81 | -0.08 | 4.84 | 137 | 75 |
| Fabian Williamson L 2027 · 5.34 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.34 | 17.4% | 17.9% | 2.6% | .289 | 4.25 | 20.0% | 8.2% | 77 | -1.09 | 3.46 | 154 | 75 |
| Chandler Jozwiak L 2026 · 5.23 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.23 | 16.9% | 15.3% | 2.9% | .259 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.88 | 161 | 75 |
| Alec Gamboa L 2026 · 5.37 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.37 | 14.8% | 13.1% | 3.4% | .287 | 4.11 | 16.6% | 3.2% | 169 | -1.26 | 1.46 | 404 | 74 |
| Brian Marconi L 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.96 | 20.3% | 18.2% | 2.3% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.61 | 101 | 74 |
| Brandon Neeck L 2026 · 6.46 FIP | 25 | SU | 6.46 | 16.8% | 16.7% | 4.8% | .298 | 3.88 | 28.8% | 9.1% | 38 | -2.58 | 3.74 | 171 | 73 |
| Julian Bosnic L 2026 · 5.01 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.01 | 20.0% | 19.6% | 2.0% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.28 | 136 | 73 |
| Nick Dombkowski L 2026 · 5.37 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.37 | 16.7% | 11.9% | 3.9% | .273 | 6.05 | 16.6% | 6.2% | 129 | +0.68 | 3.58 | 371 | 73 |
| Ty Madrigal L 2026 · 5.86 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.86 | 17.6% | 15.2% | 4.2% | .304 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.64 | 107 | 73 |
| Cody Dickson L 2026 · 5.52 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.52 | 15.9% | 14.6% | 3.5% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.90 | 354 | 73 |
| Joseph Menefee L 2026 · 5.10 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.10 | 23.3% | 17.4% | 3.2% | .268 | 6.74 | 19.4% | -8.5% | 13 | +1.64 | 3.16 | 146 | 73 |
| Davis Schwab L 2026 · 5.86 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.86 | 20.3% | 18.7% | 3.8% | .352 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.46 | 114 | 73 |
| Hayden Frank L 2024 · 5.29 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.29 | 17.2% | 14.2% | 3.4% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.29 | 109 | 73 |
| Austin Krob L 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.89 | 16.4% | 16.3% | 2.0% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 280 | 73 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 70 | 19.5% | 16.4% | 1.23 | 5.66 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Michael Kopech ('24) | 4 | 96 | 26.1% | 12.5% | 1.45 | 4.15 |