Jaylen Nowlin

P Wichita Wind Surge

Age 26 LHP 6'1" / 180 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX2 levels	24	15	98	4.85	4.14	22.9%	11.1%	—	K 18.7% · BB 12.6% · FIP 5.15
2025	24	MIX2 levels	41	0	54	5.13	4.81	25.0%	16.9%	—	K 20.2% · BB 18.6% · FIP 5.17
2026	25	AAMIN	40	0	47	5.94	3.57	28.7%	16.6%	—	K 23.2% · BB 18.3% · FIP 4.33
2027PROJ	26	MLBMIN	1	0	1	5.64	5.64	21.1%	19.2%	-0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	27	MLBMIN	15	0	16	5.53	5.54	21.3%	18.3%	-0.2
2029PROJ60% MLB	28	MLBMIN	20	0	21	5.50	5.54	21.3%	17.8%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control25Command35

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.0 / P90 0.2, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsMark Manfredi Sr. (age 24) · Anderson Polanco (age 26) · Graeme Stinson (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124132vR 140

ERA5.64

FIP5.64

K%21.1%

BB%19.2%

K-BB%1.9%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL2525

CMD3535

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	20	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	1	0	0	5	1	2	0	0%	0.3	20.0%	40.0%	-20.0%	0.0%	81.00	6.48	—
2021	20	ROK RAW	FCL Twins	1	0	0	5	1	2	0	0%	0.3	20.0%	40.0%	-20.0%	0.0%	81.00	15.10	—
2022	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	14	71	309	111	35	4	64%	3.2	26.8%	13.3%	13.5%	1.7%	3.80	3.45	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	14	71	309	111	35	4	64%	3.2	35.9%	11.3%	24.6%	1.3%	3.80	2.18	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	20	105	472	114	45	15	83%	4.4	18.9%	10.7%	8.2%	3.4%	4.44	4.73	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	20	105	472	114	45	15	83%	4.4	24.2%	9.5%	14.6%	3.2%	4.44	4.07	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	15	98	432	99	48	12	62%	4.1	18.7%	12.6%	6.1%	3.7%	4.85	5.15	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	15	98	432	99	48	12	62%	4.1	18.7%	12.6%	6.1%	3.7%	4.85	5.15	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	15	98	432	99	48	12	62%	4.1	22.9%	11.1%	11.8%	2.8%	4.85	4.14	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	54	248	62	42	7	0%	1.3	20.2%	18.6%	1.6%	2.6%	5.13	5.17	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	54	248	62	42	7	0%	1.3	20.2%	18.6%	1.6%	2.6%	5.13	5.17	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	0	54	248	62	42	7	0%	1.3	25.0%	16.9%	8.1%	2.8%	5.13	4.81	—
2026	25	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	40	0	47	223	64	37	3	0%	1.2	23.2%	18.3%	5.0%	1.6%	5.94	4.33	—
2026	25	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	40	0	47	223	64	37	3	0%	1.2	23.2%	18.3%	5.0%	1.6%	5.94	4.33	—
2026	25	AA RAW	Wichita Wind Surge	40	0	47	223	64	37	3	0%	1.2	28.7%	16.6%	12.1%	1.3%	5.94	3.57	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	MIN	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0%	1.0	21.1%	19.2%	1.9%	2.7%	5.64	5.64	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	MIN	40	0	42	178	38	33	5	0%	1.1	21.3%	18.3%	3.0%	2.8%	5.53	5.54	-0.4
2029	28	MLB MLE	MIN	34	0	35	149	32	27	4	0%	1.0	21.3%	17.8%	3.6%	2.9%	5.50	5.54	-0.4
2028	27	MLB CTX	MIN	15	0	16	68	14	12	2	0%	1.1	21.3%	18.3%	3.0%	2.8%	5.53	5.54	-0.2
2029	28	MLB CTX	MIN	20	0	21	89	19	16	3	0%	1.1	21.3%	17.8%	3.6%	2.9%	5.50	5.54	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		35	0	37	156	33	28	4	0%	1.1	21.3%	18.0%	3.3%	2.9%	5.51	5.16	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	179	152	22	0%	1.1	21.3%	18.0%	3.3%	2.9%	5.51	5.16	-1.4
Career	—	MLE		152	49	376	1689	356	235	47	32%	2.5	21.1%	13.9%	7.2%	2.8%	4.78	4.62	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		81	26	200	898	189	125	25	32%	2.5	21.1%	13.9%	7.2%	2.8%	4.78	4.62	-2.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAWichita Wind Surge · 47 IPFIP 3.52 → 4.33 (+0.82)K% 28.7% → 23.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.70%	—	×0.810	23.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.59%	—	×1.100	18.25%
HR / BF /BF	1.35%	÷1.000	×1.200	1.61%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.52 → 4.33, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAWichita Wind Surge · 53 IPFIP 4.30 → 5.17 (+0.87)K% 25.0% → 20.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.00%	—	×0.810	20.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.95%	—	×1.100	18.64%
HR / BF /BF	2.12%	÷0.986	×1.200	2.58%

Result: FIP 4.30 → 5.17, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAWichita Wind Surge · 96 IPFIP 4.03 → 5.15 (+1.12)K% 23.1% → 18.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.10%	—	×0.810	18.71%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.43%	—	×1.100	12.57%
HR / BF /BF	2.62%	÷0.845	×1.200	3.72%

Result: FIP 4.03 → 5.15, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels · 68 IPFIP 3.86 → 4.73 (+0.87)K% 26.4% → 20.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.42%	—	×0.770	20.34%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.69%	—	×1.150	8.85%
HR / BF /BF	3.68%	÷1.134	×1.250	4.06%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 127).

Result: FIP 3.86 → 4.73, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAWichita Wind Surge · 38 IPFIP 4.27 → 4.73 (+0.45)K% 20.2% → 16.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.23%	—	×0.810	16.39%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.72%	—	×1.100	13.99%
HR / BF /BF	2.31%	÷1.231	×1.200	2.25%

Result: FIP 4.27 → 4.73, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 57 IPFIP 1.94 → 3.12 (+1.18)K% 35.9% → 26.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.89%	—	×0.740	26.56%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.29%	—	×1.180	13.32%
HR / BF /BF	0.81%	÷1.000	×1.300	1.05%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.94 → 3.12, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels · 14 IPFIP 3.31 → 4.80 (+1.49)K% 36.1% → 27.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.07%	—	×0.770	27.77%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.48%	—	×1.150	13.20%
HR / BF /BF	3.28%	÷0.948	×1.250	4.33%

Result: FIP 3.31 → 4.80, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jaylen Nowlin (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.64	21.1%	19.2%	2.7%	—	5.54	21.3%	3.3%	78	-0.10	—	—	—
Mark Manfredi Sr. L 2024 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	22.0%	14.9%	2.7%	.289	3.22	25.4%	11.6%	128	-1.38	2.91	204	79
Anderson Polanco L 2019 · 5.09 FIP	26	SU	5.09	18.9%	16.3%	2.8%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.10	316	76
Graeme Stinson L 2023 · 4.85 FIP	25	SU	4.85	19.5%	15.6%	2.6%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	146	75
Fabian Williamson L 2015 · 5.31 FIP	26	SU	5.31	17.4%	17.9%	2.6%	.289	4.16	20.0%	8.2%	77	-1.15	3.39	154	73
Adam Scott L 2022 · 5.27 FIP	26	SW	5.27	21.1%	13.5%	4.1%	.317	4.65	16.1%	-1.2%	46	-0.62	4.17	315	73
Trey Jeans L 2022 · 5.09 FIP	26	SU	5.09	22.3%	16.5%	3.3%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	2.74	111	72
Sean Keselica L 2019 · 4.47 FIP	26	SU	4.47	18.0%	14.5%	1.9%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	2.79	235	72
Brian Marconi L 2022 · 5.02 FIP	25	SU	5.02	20.3%	18.2%	2.4%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.89	101	72
Will Lamb L 2017 · 5.78 FIP	26	SU	5.78	20.0%	14.0%	4.7%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.64	178	71
Nick Lee L 2016 · 4.96 FIP	25	SU	4.96	19.0%	19.7%	1.8%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.77	102	71
John Kilichowski L 2018 · 4.99 FIP	24	SU	4.99	17.6%	16.2%	2.4%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	4.10	115	71
Cody Beckman L 2021 · 5.27 FIP	26	SU	5.27	19.3%	14.9%	3.5%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	189	71
Chandler Jozwiak L 2024 · 5.33 FIP	25	SU	5.33	16.9%	15.3%	3.1%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	2.86	161	70
Seth Clark L 2024 · 5.66 FIP	24	SU	5.66	18.9%	16.2%	3.9%	.267	4.56	17.7%	-2.7%	32	-1.10	4.23	128	70
Dante Biasi L 2023 · 6.65 FIP	25	SU	6.65	20.1%	18.4%	5.3%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	4.91	224	70
Davis Schwab L 2022 · 5.70 FIP	25	SU	5.70	20.3%	18.7%	3.5%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	114	70
Matt Mikulski L 2024 · 6.18 FIP	25	SU	6.18	15.3%	17.1%	4.0%	.275	4.98	19.5%	-8.3%	18	-1.20	4.92	223	69
Bryan Warzek L 2022 · 5.04 FIP	25	SW	5.04	22.1%	15.0%	3.5%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	1.91	138	69
Trey Cumbie L 2022 · 5.07 FIP	26	SU	5.07	23.3%	16.1%	3.4%	.215	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	152	69
Brian Moran L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	26	SU	4.50	17.7%	14.1%	2.0%	.318	2.74	25.0%	17.4%	80	-1.76	1.80	421	69

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	46	21.2%	18.6%	1.09	5.57
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*