Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Quad Cities River Bandits | 24 | 6 | 72 | 301 | 84 | 33 | 9 | 25% | 3.0 | 21.5% | 12.6% | 8.9% | 3.6% | 3.77 | 4.88 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Quad Cities River Bandits | 24 | 6 | 72 | 301 | 84 | 33 | 9 | 25% | 3.0 | 27.9% | 11.0% | 16.9% | 3.0% | 3.77 | 3.77 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | 22 | 15 | 84 | 373 | 86 | 54 | 7 | 68% | 3.8 | 18.7% | 15.9% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 4.09 | 5.06 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | 22 | 15 | 84 | 373 | 86 | 54 | 7 | 68% | 3.8 | 23.1% | 14.5% | 8.6% | 1.9% | 4.09 | 4.07 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | 36 | 3 | 69 | 311 | 77 | 52 | 12 | 8% | 1.9 | 20.1% | 18.4% | 1.7% | 6.2% | 4.43 | 7.16 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | 36 | 3 | 69 | 311 | 77 | 52 | 12 | 8% | 1.9 | 24.8% | 16.7% | 8.0% | 3.9% | 4.43 | 5.39 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | KC | 46 | 0 | 48 | 202 | 46 | 21 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.9% | 10.5% | 12.4% | 3.2% | 4.63 | 4.63 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | KC | 43 | 0 | 46 | 193 | 44 | 20 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.8% | 10.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | 4.68 | 4.73 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | KC | 41 | 0 | 43 | 181 | 41 | 20 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.5% | 10.8% | 11.7% | 3.5% | 4.78 | 4.88 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | KC | 13 | 0 | 14 | 59 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.8% | 10.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | 4.68 | 4.73 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | KC | 21 | 0 | 22 | 93 | 21 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.5% | 10.8% | 11.7% | 3.5% | 4.78 | 4.88 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 35 | 0 | 36 | 153 | 35 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.6% | 10.7% | 11.9% | 3.4% | 4.74 | 4.44 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 193 | 88 | 28 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.6% | 10.7% | 11.9% | 3.4% | 4.74 | 4.44 | +2.2 | ||
| Career | — | 82 | 24 | 224 | 985 | 197 | 155 | 41 | 29% | 2.7 | 20.0% | 15.7% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.09 | 5.67 | -0.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 73 | 21 | 200 | 878 | 175 | 138 | 36 | 29% | 2.7 | 20.0% | 15.7% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.09 | 5.67 | -0.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Dante Biasi (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.63 | 22.9% | 10.5% | 3.2% | — | 4.80 | 22.6% | 11.9% | 88 | +0.17 | — | — | — |
| Matt Whitehouse L 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.02 | 20.1% | 10.9% | 2.2% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.38 | 353 | 79 |
| Hector Hernandez L 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.57 | 20.2% | 9.0% | 1.9% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 121 | 78 |
| Chad Bell L 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.62 | 19.4% | 8.9% | 3.7% | .341 | 4.44 | 18.8% | 11.4% | 57 | -0.18 | 3.47 | 393 | 78 |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.62 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .281 | 3.41 | 22.7% | 17.3% | 82 | -0.21 | 3.41 | 153 | 73 |
| Juan Grullon L 2024 · 4.86 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.86 | 19.8% | 10.9% | 3.7% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.86 | 134 | 71 |
| Edgar Olmos L 2025 · 3.56 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.56 | 18.9% | 9.7% | 1.5% | .252 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.19 | 203 | 71 |
| Jack Dashwood L 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.80 | 17.8% | 10.5% | 3.4% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 309 | 70 |
| Andy Oliver L 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.44 | 19.9% | 9.9% | 3.2% | .321 | 7.40 | 16.6% | 2.7% | 21 | +2.96 | 4.08 | 165 | 69 |
| Austin Warner L 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.56 | 16.9% | 9.0% | 3.2% | .319 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.88 | 491 | 68 |
| Colton Turner L 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.96 | 22.4% | 9.2% | 2.9% | .345 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.83 | 325 | 68 |
| Brendan Nail L 2025 · 4.43 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.43 | 19.5% | 11.4% | 2.8% | .262 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.67 | 165 | 67 |
| Kyle Hunter L 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.47 | 14.0% | 6.1% | 3.2% | .335 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.44 | 188 | 67 |
| Tommy Vail L 2024 · 5.18 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.18 | 19.7% | 16.4% | 3.0% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 151 | 67 |
| Jake McSteen L 2026 · 4.92 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.92 | 19.7% | 6.4% | 4.9% | .348 | 2.22 | 18.9% | 13.2% | 18 | -2.70 | 2.22 | 286 | 67 |
| Will Lamb L 2024 · 5.47 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.47 | 20.0% | 14.0% | 4.2% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 178 | 66 |
| Dylan Phillips L 2025 · 4.01 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.01 | 22.8% | 10.1% | 2.9% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.69 | 221 | 66 |
| Ashur Tolliver L 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.24 | 21.3% | 9.8% | 3.1% | .308 | 5.05 | 13.8% | -5.1% | 35 | +0.81 | 3.43 | 134 | 66 |
| Garrett Gainey L 2024 · 5.52 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.52 | 17.8% | 8.2% | 5.2% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 116 | 66 |
| David Huff L 2028 · 3.63 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.63 | 17.1% | 3.8% | 2.7% | .271 | 4.00 | 19.5% | 14.6% | 52 | +0.37 | 3.63 | 158 | 66 |
| Jimmy Reyes L 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.73 | 13.8% | 8.0% | 3.2% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.00 | 200 | 66 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 45 | 22.7% | 10.6% | 1.29 | 4.69 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |