Drew Dowd — OGILVIE

Drew Dowd P Montgomery Biscuits

Age 24 LHP 6'2" / 206 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.3 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION4 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 99107vR 115

ERA4.30

FIP4.30

K%22.1%

BB%9.3%

K-BB%12.8%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 10 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$4M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL5050

CMD6060

K†5555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.3M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.3M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-1	$3M	—	—	—
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$2M	+$0.6M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	22	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	22	19	111	454	99	45	6	86%	5.0	16.1%	11.7%	4.4%	2.1%	2.85	4.36	—
2024	22	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	22	19	111	454	99	45	6	86%	5.0	16.1%	11.7%	4.4%	2.1%	2.85	4.36	—
2024	22	A RAW	Charleston RiverDogs	22	19	111	454	99	45	6	86%	5.0	21.8%	9.9%	11.9%	1.3%	2.85	3.24	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	38	2	55	220	71	17	3	5%	1.5	24.9%	8.9%	16.0%	1.8%	2.60	3.13	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	38	2	55	220	71	17	3	5%	1.5	24.9%	8.9%	16.0%	1.8%	2.60	3.13	—
2025	23	A+ RAW	Bowling Green Hot Rods	38	2	55	220	71	17	3	5%	1.5	32.3%	7.7%	24.5%	1.4%	2.60	2.16	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	2	0	4	18	2	4	0	0%	2.0	—	—	—	—	0.00	—	—
YTD	24	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	2	0	4	18	2	4	0	0%	2.0	—	—	—	—	0.00	—	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	AA RAW	TB	2	0	4	18	2	4	0	0%	2.0	11.1%	22.2%	-11.1%	0.0%	0.00	4.98	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	TB	6	0	6	27	6	2	1	0%	1.1	22.1%	9.3%	12.8%	2.7%	4.30	4.30	+0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	TB	—	—	10	45	8	6	1	—	—	17.7%	14.5%	3.1%	1.6%	2.63	2.63	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	TB	96	0	101	426	97	37	12	0%	1.1	22.7%	8.6%	14.1%	2.8%	4.22	4.17	+0.5
2028	26	MLB MLE	TB	96	0	101	426	98	36	12	0%	1.1	23.0%	8.5%	14.5%	2.8%	4.17	4.14	+0.5
2029	27	MLB MLE	TB	95	0	99	419	96	36	12	0%	1.0	22.9%	8.6%	14.4%	2.8%	4.18	4.18	+0.4
2030	28	MLB MLE	TB	92	0	96	407	93	35	12	0%	1.0	22.8%	8.7%	14.1%	2.9%	4.24	4.27	+0.3
2031	29	MLB MLE	TB	88	0	92	388	88	35	12	0%	1.0	22.5%	8.9%	13.6%	3.1%	4.34	4.40	+0.2
2032	30	MLB MLE	TB	82	0	86	365	81	34	12	0%	1.1	22.2%	9.2%	13.0%	3.3%	4.48	4.58	-0.0
2027	25	MLB CTX	TB	42	0	44	186	42	16	5	0%	1.0	22.7%	8.6%	14.1%	2.8%	4.27	4.22	+0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	TB	64	0	67	283	65	24	8	0%	1.0	23.0%	8.5%	14.5%	2.9%	4.22	4.19	+0.3
2029	27	MLB CTX	TB	73	0	77	325	75	28	9	0%	1.1	22.9%	8.6%	14.4%	2.9%	4.23	4.23	+0.3
2030	28	MLB CTX	TB	77	0	81	342	78	30	10	0%	1.1	22.8%	8.7%	14.1%	3.0%	4.29	4.32	+0.3
2031	29	MLB CTX	TB	77	0	81	342	77	31	11	0%	1.1	22.5%	8.9%	13.6%	3.2%	4.39	4.45	+0.1
2032	30	MLB CTX	TB	74	0	78	329	73	30	11	0%	1.1	22.2%	9.2%	13.0%	3.4%	4.53	4.63	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		408	0	428	1809	410	159	55	0%	1.1	22.7%	8.8%	13.9%	3.1%	4.33	3.97	+2.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	191	74	26	0%	1.1	22.7%	8.8%	13.9%	3.1%	4.33	3.97	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		62	21	170	692	130	77	13	34%	2.7	18.8%	11.1%	7.7%	1.9%	2.70	3.99	+1.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		73	25	200	814	153	90	16	34%	2.7	18.8%	11.1%	7.7%	1.9%	2.70	3.99	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Drew Dowd (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.30	22.1%	9.3%	2.7%	—	4.16	22.9%	14.3%	301	-0.14	—	—	—
Zack Thompson L 2022 · 3.80 FIP	24	SW	3.80	23.6%	9.9%	2.6%	.243	4.60	22.9%	10.4%	208	+0.80	2.03	402	84
R.C. Orlan L 2015 · 3.93 FIP	24	SU	3.93	21.0%	10.9%	2.2%	.326	4.62	17.2%	5.0%	119	+0.69	1.71	206	82
Sean Mellen L 2022 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	21.3%	10.4%	2.5%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	101	82
Christian Jones L 2015 · 3.32 FIP	24	SU	3.32	18.5%	7.4%	1.6%	.319	4.00	15.0%	3.7%	89	+0.68	3.32	161	81
Garrett Irvin L 2023 · 4.42 FIP	24	SU	4.42	23.2%	11.6%	3.3%	.283	4.32	17.7%	2.9%	39	-0.10	4.32	110	80
Michael Johnson L 2015 · 3.92 FIP	24	SU	3.92	20.6%	9.4%	2.5%	.260	4.70	17.6%	7.7%	185	+0.78	3.92	256	80
Brian Flynn L 2016 · 3.80 FIP	26	SU	3.80	21.3%	11.1%	2.0%	.258	4.39	16.6%	8.2%	198	+0.59	3.80	277	80
Garrett Schoenle L 2022 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	21.4%	10.8%	3.5%	.263	4.26	20.8%	9.6%	219	-0.34	2.32	359	80
Brad Hand L 2015 · 3.95 FIP	25	SW	3.95	16.4%	7.6%	2.3%	.326	2.71	32.9%	25.0%	241	-1.24	0.84	577	80
Logan Darnell L 2015 · 3.16 FIP	26	SW	3.16	17.8%	7.7%	1.1%	.316	4.59	12.2%	5.5%	305	+1.43	3.16	430	79
Matt Whitehouse L 2016 · 3.37 FIP	25	SU	3.37	19.0%	9.9%	1.1%	.304	4.46	16.9%	7.4%	276	+1.09	3.37	353	79
Daniel Stumpf L 2015 · 4.31 FIP	24	SU	4.31	20.8%	11.5%	2.8%	.268	3.54	22.5%	15.3%	123	-0.77	1.84	238	78
Enny Romero L 2015 · 3.52 FIP	24	SU	3.52	20.7%	9.0%	1.8%	.354	4.22	24.8%	14.6%	111	+0.70	3.51	188	78
Nick Maronde L 2015 · 3.85 FIP	25	SW	3.85	18.3%	8.9%	2.1%	.359	3.62	16.3%	8.9%	48	-0.23	3.62	133	78
Michael Theofanopoulos L 2017 · 3.60 FIP	24	SU	3.60	21.0%	9.8%	1.9%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	201	77
Ismael Guillón L 2016 · 4.38 FIP	24	SW	4.38	24.9%	12.5%	3.3%	.206	4.43	20.1%	6.0%	100	+0.05	4.35	193	77
Shane McCain L 2016 · 4.48 FIP	24	SU	4.48	18.3%	8.7%	3.3%	.261	5.14	14.2%	10.7%	51	+0.66	4.34	201	77
Trevor Lane L 2018 · 3.56 FIP	24	SU	3.56	21.5%	7.3%	2.5%	.360	3.10	21.2%	12.6%	91	-0.46	2.13	246	76
Chris Cotton L 2015 · 3.69 FIP	24	SU	3.69	20.7%	7.0%	2.6%	.288	4.17	9.7%	3.3%	61	+0.48	3.69	128	76
Ben Griset L 2016 · 3.37 FIP	24	SU	3.37	21.1%	9.1%	1.7%	.255	3.74	14.5%	3.6%	49	+0.37	2.91	148	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.3	95	22.6%	8.8%	1.13	4.27
Tyler Skaggs ('19)	1.7	85	22.9%	8.2%	1.09	4.24
Mike Clevinger ('23)	3.9	113	24.8%	8.7%	1.07	3.45
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01
Alex Cobb ('23)	4.0	114	19.5%	6.6%	1.03	4.14
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45