Drew Dowd
P
Montgomery Biscuits
+0.8
WAR
Age 24
LHP
6'2" / 206 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.7 · 2027
ERA4.30
FIP4.30
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.5%
BB%9.6%
K-BB%12.9%
IP74
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.7peak
2027
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | 22 | 19 | 111 | 454 | 99 | 45 | 6 | 16.1% | 11.7% | 2.1% | 2.85 | 4.39 | +1.1 |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | 38 | 2 | 55 | 220 | 71 | 17 | 3 | 24.9% | 8.9% | 1.8% | 2.60 | 3.14 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | 2 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 2 | 4 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | TB | 13 | 13 | 74 | 312 | 70 | 30 | 9 | 22.5% | 9.6% | 2.8% | 4.30 | 4.30 | +0.6 |
| 2026 Total | 24 | MLB | TB | — | — | 78 | 330 | 72 | 34 | 9 | 21.9% | 10.3% | 2.6% | 4.08 | 4.08 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | TB | 14 | 14 | 75 | 315 | 72 | 29 | 9 | 23.0% | 9.2% | 2.8% | 4.26 | 4.22 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | TB | 14 | 14 | 75 | 315 | 73 | 29 | 9 | 23.2% | 9.2% | 2.8% | 4.23 | 4.21 | +0.7 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | TB | 13 | 13 | 74 | 313 | 73 | 29 | 9 | 23.2% | 9.2% | 2.8% | 4.23 | 4.22 | +0.7 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | TB | 13 | 13 | 73 | 308 | 71 | 29 | 9 | 23.2% | 9.3% | 2.8% | 4.25 | 4.25 | +0.7 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | TB | 13 | 13 | 71 | 301 | 70 | 28 | 9 | 23.1% | 9.3% | 2.9% | 4.28 | 4.30 | +0.6 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | TB | 13 | 13 | 69 | 293 | 67 | 28 | 9 | 22.9% | 9.4% | 2.9% | 4.33 | 4.36 | +0.5 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | TB | 12 | 12 | 67 | 282 | 64 | 27 | 9 | 22.6% | 9.6% | 3.0% | 4.39 | 4.44 | +0.4 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | TB | 12 | 12 | 64 | 271 | 61 | 26 | 8 | 22.4% | 9.7% | 3.1% | 4.47 | 4.52 | +0.3 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | TB | 11 | 11 | 61 | 259 | 57 | 26 | 8 | 22.0% | 9.9% | 3.2% | 4.56 | 4.62 | +0.2 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | TB | 58 | — | 58 | 246 | 53 | 25 | 8 | 21.7% | 10.1% | 3.3% | 4.66 | 4.73 | +0.1 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | TB | 55 | — | 55 | 232 | 49 | 24 | 8 | 21.3% | 10.3% | 3.4% | 4.77 | 4.85 | +0.1 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | TB | 51 | — | 51 | 217 | 45 | 23 | 8 | 20.9% | 10.6% | 3.5% | 4.90 | 4.99 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 62 | 21 | 170 | 692 | 130 | 77 | 14 | 18.8% | 11.1% | 2.0% | 2.70 | 4.01 | +2.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 73 | 25 | 200 | 814 | 153 | 91 | 16 | 18.8% | 11.1% | 2.0% | 2.70 | 4.01 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Drew Dowd (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.30 | 22.5% | 9.6% | 2.8% | — | 4.22 | 23.1% | 13.9% | 224 | -0.08 | — | — | — |
| Chris Cotton L 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.68 | 20.7% | 7.0% | 2.6% | .288 | 4.17 | 9.7% | 3.3% | 61 | +0.49 | 3.68 | 128 | 91 |
| T.J. Sikkema L 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.55 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 3.9% | .298 | 4.50 | 16.9% | 7.4% | 231 | -0.05 | 3.50 | 300 | 90 |
| Michael Johnson L 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.88 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 2.4% | .260 | 4.75 | 17.6% | 7.7% | 185 | +0.87 | 3.88 | 256 | 90 |
| Jimmy Robbins L 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.86 | 23.3% | 11.3% | 2.4% | .286 | 4.86 | 18.1% | 2.5% | 99 | +1.00 | 3.86 | 176 | 90 |
| Garrett Irvin L 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.43 | 23.2% | 11.6% | 3.3% | .283 | 4.34 | 17.7% | 2.9% | 39 | -0.09 | 4.34 | 110 | 88 |
| Greg Nappo L 2028 · 3.36 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.36 | 22.7% | 7.5% | 2.2% | .267 | 5.28 | 16.5% | 5.9% | 79 | +1.92 | 3.36 | 144 | 88 |
| Trevor Lane L 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.62 | 21.5% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .360 | 3.10 | 21.2% | 12.6% | 91 | -0.52 | 2.14 | 246 | 88 |
| Carson Skipper L 2026 · 3.12 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.12 | 25.0% | 8.2% | 2.0% | .322 | 3.79 | 19.9% | 10.8% | 67 | +0.67 | 3.01 | 176 | 87 |
| R.C. Orlan L 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.91 | 21.0% | 10.9% | 2.2% | .326 | 4.61 | 17.2% | 5.0% | 119 | +0.70 | 1.71 | 206 | 87 |
| Robbie Ross Jr. L 2028 · 3.83 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.83 | 20.5% | 6.9% | 2.9% | .287 | 3.19 | 22.3% | 9.6% | 66 | -0.64 | 2.79 | 159 | 86 |
| Sean Mellen L 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.01 | 21.3% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.01 | 101 | 86 |
| Michael Theofanopoulos L 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.60 | 21.0% | 9.8% | 1.9% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 201 | 86 |
| Graeme Stinson L 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.57 | 23.0% | 10.5% | 2.0% | .275 | 4.89 | 19.5% | 3.9% | 45 | +1.32 | 3.57 | 146 | 86 |
| Thomas Burrows L 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.04 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.7% | .276 | 3.93 | 26.5% | 12.9% | 82 | -0.11 | 2.69 | 271 | 85 |
| Josh Dye L 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.49 | 22.0% | 7.0% | 2.5% | .298 | 5.36 | 16.7% | 10.2% | 79 | +1.87 | 2.79 | 238 | 85 |
| Daniel Stumpf L 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.26 | 20.8% | 11.5% | 2.6% | .268 | 3.50 | 22.5% | 15.3% | 123 | -0.76 | 1.84 | 238 | 85 |
| Shane McCain L 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.38 | 18.3% | 8.7% | 3.1% | .261 | 5.05 | 14.2% | 10.7% | 51 | +0.67 | 4.31 | 201 | 84 |
| Christian Jones L 2026 · 3.32 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.32 | 18.5% | 7.4% | 1.6% | .319 | 3.98 | 15.0% | 3.7% | 89 | +0.66 | 3.32 | 161 | 84 |
| Evan Lee L 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.86 | 24.2% | 11.1% | 2.5% | .333 | 4.49 | 21.0% | 2.7% | 52 | +0.63 | 3.82 | 129 | 83 |
| Colton Johnson L 2028 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.91 | 20.8% | 11.0% | 2.1% | .309 | 4.53 | 12.2% | -0.4% | 48 | +0.62 | 3.91 | 106 | 83 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.3M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.3 | $2M | -$0.5M |
| Totals | $7M | $15M | +$7M | ||