Drew Dowd
P
Montgomery Biscuits
Age 24
LHP
6'2" / 206 lbs
AA
peak 0.2 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION4 act + 90 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 98107vR 116
ERA4.28
FIP4.28
K%22.1%
BB%8.9%
K-BB%13.2%
ROS IP90
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 94 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | 22 | 19 | 111 | 454 | 99 | 45 | 6 | 86% | 5.0 | 16.1% | 11.7% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 2.85 | 4.67 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | 22 | 19 | 111 | 454 | 99 | 45 | 6 | 86% | 5.0 | 21.8% | 9.9% | 11.9% | 1.3% | 2.85 | 3.24 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | 38 | 2 | 55 | 220 | 71 | 17 | 3 | 5% | 1.5 | 24.9% | 8.9% | 16.0% | 2.0% | 2.60 | 3.21 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | 38 | 2 | 55 | 220 | 71 | 17 | 3 | 5% | 1.5 | 32.3% | 7.7% | 24.5% | 1.4% | 2.60 | 2.16 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | 2 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 2.0 | — | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | TB | 86 | 0 | 90 | 380 | 84 | 34 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.1% | 8.9% | 13.2% | 2.8% | 4.28 | 4.28 | +1.0 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | TB | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.1% | 8.9% | 13.2% | 2.8% | 4.28 | 4.28 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | TB | — | — | 94 | 398 | 86 | 38 | 11 | — | — | 21.7% | 9.5% | 12.1% | 2.7% | 4.10 | 4.10 | +1.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | TB | — | — | 2 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 22.1% | 8.9% | 13.2% | 2.8% | 4.28 | 3.90 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | TB | 87 | 0 | 91 | 385 | 87 | 32 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.7% | 8.3% | 14.4% | 2.8% | 4.21 | 4.16 | +1.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | TB | 87 | 0 | 91 | 385 | 88 | 32 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.0% | 8.2% | 14.8% | 2.8% | 4.17 | 4.14 | +1.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | TB | 85 | 0 | 90 | 379 | 87 | 31 | 11 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 8.3% | 14.7% | 2.9% | 4.18 | 4.18 | +1.1 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | TB | 38 | 0 | 40 | 169 | 38 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.7% | 8.3% | 14.4% | 2.8% | 4.21 | 4.16 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | TB | 58 | 0 | 61 | 258 | 59 | 21 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.0% | 8.2% | 14.8% | 2.8% | 4.17 | 4.14 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | TB | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 68 | 24 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.9% | 8.3% | 14.7% | 2.9% | 4.18 | 4.18 | +0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 164 | 0 | 172 | 727 | 167 | 60 | 21 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 8.3% | 14.6% | 2.9% | 4.18 | 3.78 | +3.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 194 | 70 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 8.3% | 14.6% | 2.9% | 4.18 | 3.78 | +3.8 | ||
| Career | — | 62 | 21 | 170 | 692 | 130 | 77 | 16 | 34% | 2.7 | 18.8% | 11.1% | 7.7% | 2.4% | 2.70 | 4.22 | +2.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 73 | 25 | 200 | 814 | 153 | 90 | 19 | 34% | 2.7 | 18.8% | 11.1% | 7.7% | 2.4% | 2.70 | 4.22 | +2.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Drew Dowd (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.28 | 22.1% | 8.9% | 2.8% | — | 4.16 | 22.9% | 14.6% | 272 | -0.12 | — | — | — |
| Zack Thompson L 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.72 | 23.6% | 9.9% | 2.5% | .243 | 4.67 | 23.7% | 9.6% | 208 | +0.95 | 2.03 | 402 | 84 |
| R.C. Orlan L 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.01 | 21.0% | 10.9% | 2.4% | .326 | 4.55 | 17.2% | 5.0% | 119 | +0.54 | 1.71 | 206 | 81 |
| Sean Mellen L 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.97 | 21.3% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.97 | 101 | 81 |
| Christian Jones L 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.30 | 18.5% | 7.4% | 1.5% | .319 | 4.09 | 15.0% | 3.7% | 89 | +0.79 | 3.30 | 161 | 80 |
| Michael Johnson L 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.09 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .260 | 4.51 | 17.6% | 7.7% | 185 | +0.42 | 3.88 | 256 | 80 |
| Brad Hand L 2027 · 3.96 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.96 | 16.4% | 7.6% | 2.3% | .326 | 2.81 | 32.9% | 25.0% | 241 | -1.15 | 0.84 | 577 | 80 |
| Logan Darnell L 2028 · 3.18 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.18 | 17.8% | 7.7% | 1.1% | .316 | 4.67 | 12.2% | 5.5% | 305 | +1.49 | 3.18 | 430 | 79 |
| Garrett Irvin L 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.53 | 23.2% | 11.6% | 3.5% | .283 | 4.48 | 17.7% | 2.9% | 39 | -0.05 | 4.48 | 110 | 79 |
| Garrett Schoenle L 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.66 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 3.6% | .263 | 4.29 | 21.0% | 9.5% | 219 | -0.37 | 2.34 | 338 | 79 |
| Brian Flynn L 2028 · 3.78 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.78 | 21.3% | 11.1% | 2.0% | .258 | 4.41 | 16.6% | 8.2% | 198 | +0.63 | 3.78 | 277 | 79 |
| Matt Whitehouse L 2027 · 3.38 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.38 | 19.0% | 9.9% | 1.1% | .304 | 4.49 | 16.9% | 7.4% | 276 | +1.11 | 3.38 | 353 | 78 |
| Enny Romero L 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.49 | 20.7% | 9.0% | 1.8% | .354 | 4.24 | 24.8% | 14.6% | 111 | +0.75 | 3.49 | 188 | 78 |
| Shane McCain L 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.23 | 18.3% | 8.7% | 2.9% | .261 | 4.93 | 14.2% | 10.7% | 51 | +0.70 | 4.19 | 201 | 77 |
| Daniel Stumpf L 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.54 | 20.8% | 11.5% | 3.2% | .268 | 3.58 | 22.5% | 15.3% | 123 | -0.96 | 1.84 | 238 | 77 |
| Michael Theofanopoulos L 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.66 | 21.0% | 9.8% | 2.0% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.53 | 201 | 77 |
| Nick Maronde L 2027 · 3.67 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.67 | 18.3% | 8.9% | 1.8% | .359 | 3.64 | 16.3% | 8.9% | 48 | -0.03 | 3.64 | 133 | 77 |
| Ismael Guillón L 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.28 | 24.9% | 12.5% | 3.1% | .206 | 4.45 | 20.1% | 6.0% | 100 | +0.17 | 4.28 | 193 | 77 |
| Chris Cotton L 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.66 | 20.7% | 7.0% | 2.6% | .288 | 4.13 | 9.7% | 3.3% | 61 | +0.47 | 3.66 | 128 | 77 |
| Samuel Strickland L 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.86 | 19.5% | 7.3% | 4.5% | .337 | 3.71 | 20.5% | 14.3% | 133 | -1.15 | 3.09 | 277 | 77 |
| Trevor Lane L 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.39 | 21.5% | 7.3% | 2.2% | .360 | 3.11 | 21.2% | 12.6% | 91 | -0.28 | 2.07 | 246 | 77 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 90 | 22.7% | 8.4% | 1.10 | 4.21 |
| Tyler Skaggs ('19) | 4 | 85 | 22.9% | 8.2% | 1.09 | 4.24 |
| Kyle Wright ('23) | 3 | 83 | 22.4% | 8.9% | 1.12 | 3.97 |
| Nate Karns ('17) | 3 | 96 | 24.2% | 9.3% | 1.22 | 4.24 |
| Brandon McCarthy ('18) | 4 | 59 | 21.3% | 7.9% | 1.19 | 4.65 |
| Jimmy Nelson ('21) | 5 | 117 | 22.2% | 9.1% | 0.97 | 4.08 |
| Alek Manoah ('24) | 4 | 105 | 23.4% | 9.0% | 1.03 | 3.34 |