Drew Dowd

P Montgomery Biscuits

Age 25 LHP 6'2" / 206 lbs AA peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	23	A+TB	38	2	55	2.60	2.16	32.3%	7.7%	—	K 24.9% · BB 8.9% · FIP 3.13
2026	24	AATB	2	0	4	0.00	5.10	11.1%	22.2%	—	K 11.1% · BB 22.2% · FIP 4.98
2027PROJ	25	MLBTB	3	0	3	4.39	4.39	22.5%	9.8%	0.0
2028PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBTB	45	0	47	4.34	4.31	23.2%	9.5%	0.1
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBTB	58	0	61	4.34	4.34	23.1%	9.4%	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsMichael Tejera (age 25) · Brent Headrick (age 25) · Nick Maronde (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 100108vR 117

ERA4.39

FIP4.39

K%22.5%

BB%9.8%

K-BB%12.8%

Proj IP131

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 131 IP

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	22	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	22	19	111	454	99	45	6	86%	5.0	16.1%	11.7%	4.4%	2.1%	2.85	4.36	—
2024	22	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	22	19	111	454	99	45	6	86%	5.0	16.1%	11.7%	4.4%	2.1%	2.85	4.36	—
2024	22	A RAW	Charleston RiverDogs	22	19	111	454	99	45	6	86%	5.0	21.8%	9.9%	11.9%	1.3%	2.85	3.24	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	38	2	55	220	71	17	3	5%	1.5	24.9%	8.9%	16.0%	1.8%	2.60	3.13	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	38	2	55	220	71	17	3	5%	1.5	24.9%	8.9%	16.0%	1.8%	2.60	3.13	—
2025	23	A+ RAW	Bowling Green Hot Rods	38	2	55	220	71	17	3	5%	1.5	32.3%	7.7%	24.5%	1.4%	2.60	2.16	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	2	0	4	18	2	4	0	0%	2.0	11.1%	22.2%	-11.1%	0.0%	0.00	4.98	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	2	0	4	18	2	4	0	0%	2.0	11.1%	22.2%	-11.1%	0.0%	0.00	4.98	—
2026	24	AA RAW	Montgomery Biscuits	2	0	4	18	2	4	0	0%	2.0	11.1%	22.2%	-11.1%	0.0%	0.00	5.10	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	TB	3	0	3	13	3	1	0	0%	1.0	22.5%	9.8%	12.8%	2.9%	4.39	4.39	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	TB	102	0	107	453	105	43	13	0%	1.1	23.2%	9.5%	13.7%	2.9%	4.34	4.31	+0.3
2029	27	MLB MLE	TB	92	0	96	407	94	38	12	0%	1.0	23.1%	9.4%	13.6%	2.9%	4.34	4.34	+0.2
2030	28	MLB MLE	TB	85	0	89	376	86	36	11	0%	1.0	22.9%	9.5%	13.4%	3.0%	4.39	4.42	+0.1
2031	29	MLB MLE	TB	78	0	82	346	78	34	11	0%	1.1	22.6%	9.7%	13.0%	3.2%	4.48	4.55	0.0
2032	30	MLB MLE	TB	70	0	74	312	70	31	11	0%	1.1	22.3%	10.0%	12.3%	3.4%	4.63	4.73	-0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	TB	45	0	47	198	46	19	6	0%	1.0	23.2%	9.5%	13.7%	2.9%	4.34	4.31	+0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	TB	58	0	61	258	59	24	8	0%	1.1	23.1%	9.4%	13.6%	2.9%	4.34	4.34	+0.1
2030	28	MLB CTX	TB	64	0	67	283	65	27	9	0%	1.0	22.9%	9.5%	13.4%	3.0%	4.39	4.42	+0.1
2031	29	MLB CTX	TB	64	0	67	283	64	27	9	0%	1.0	22.6%	9.7%	13.0%	3.2%	4.48	4.55	0.0
2032	30	MLB CTX	TB	61	0	64	270	60	27	9	0%	1.0	22.3%	10.0%	12.3%	3.4%	4.63	4.73	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		291	0	306	1292	294	124	40	0%	1.1	22.8%	9.6%	13.2%	3.1%	4.44	4.10	+1.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	192	81	26	0%	1.1	22.8%	9.6%	13.2%	3.1%	4.44	4.10	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		62	21	170	692	130	77	13	34%	2.7	18.8%	11.1%	7.7%	1.9%	2.70	3.99	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		73	25	200	814	153	90	16	34%	2.7	18.8%	11.1%	7.7%	1.9%	2.70	3.99	+0.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods · 55 IPFIP 2.10 → 3.13 (+1.03)K% 32.3% → 24.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.27%	—	×0.770	24.85%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.73%	—	×1.150	8.89%
HR / BF /BF	1.36%	÷0.930	×1.250	1.83%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 86).

Result: FIP 2.10 → 3.13, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ACharleston RiverDogs · 111 IPFIP 3.24 → 4.36 (+1.12)K% 21.8% → 16.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.81%	—	×0.740	16.14%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.91%	—	×1.180	11.70%
HR / BF /BF	1.32%	÷0.824	×1.300	2.08%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 65).

Result: FIP 3.24 → 4.36, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Drew Dowd (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.9%	—	4.35	23.1%	13.6%	293	-0.04	—	—	—
Michael Tejera L 2002 · 4.50 FIP	25	SW	4.50	15.5%	9.3%	2.8%	.287	3.83	16.4%	7.1%	81	-0.67	3.83	230	78
Brent Headrick L 2023 · 4.49 FIP	25	SW	4.49	23.1%	7.6%	4.3%	.299	2.91	28.6%	21.1%	143	-1.58	2.36	414	78
Nick Maronde L 2015 · 3.85 FIP	25	SW	3.85	18.3%	8.9%	2.1%	.359	3.62	16.3%	8.9%	48	-0.23	3.62	133	77
Brian Burres L 2007 · 4.50 FIP	26	SW	4.50	17.2%	11.6%	2.5%	.328	4.71	11.3%	3.1%	209	+0.21	4.50	344	75
Adam Wolf L 2022 · 3.91 FIP	25	SW	3.91	19.4%	10.6%	2.0%	.292	4.18	16.8%	5.9%	109	+0.27	3.91	383	75
Will Johnston L 2024 · 3.94 FIP	23	SP-	3.94	24.8%	11.6%	2.7%	.290	4.56	22.9%	7.5%	104	+0.62	3.94	195	74
Charlie Furbush L 2011 · 4.95 FIP	25	SW	4.95	18.0%	7.5%	4.4%	.310	2.67	28.8%	21.4%	154	-2.28	2.40	261	74
Chris Murphy L 2023 · 3.99 FIP	25	SW	3.99	21.9%	9.7%	2.8%	.344	3.92	21.6%	10.1%	110	-0.07	3.63	464	72
Mark Manfredi Sr. L 2024 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	22.0%	14.9%	2.7%	.289	3.22	25.4%	11.6%	128	-1.38	2.91	204	72
Zack Thompson L 2023 · 4.48 FIP	25	SP-	4.48	23.0%	12.9%	3.1%	.355	4.64	23.7%	11.5%	107	+0.16	2.03	402	71
Nick Dombkowski L 2024 · 4.92 FIP	25	SW	4.92	16.5%	10.9%	3.3%	.273	5.17	18.2%	10.6%	183	+0.25	3.71	425	71
Lael Lockhart L 2023 · 4.29 FIP	25	SW	4.29	22.6%	12.9%	2.7%	.302	4.90	20.1%	9.3%	307	+0.61	3.59	520	71
Matt Stalcup L 2015 · 3.62 FIP	25	SW	3.62	16.2%	9.7%	1.2%	.266	6.20	11.5%	-1.2%	56	+2.58	3.62	145	70
Connor Oliver L 2024 · 4.34 FIP	23	SW	4.34	17.3%	12.1%	2.1%	.314	6.07	19.2%	3.4%	165	+1.73	4.34	244	70
Parker Mushinski L 2021 · 3.50 FIP	25	SW	3.50	24.7%	9.0%	2.5%	.357	4.02	21.7%	11.9%	143	+0.52	3.03	459	69
Matt Tracy L 2015 · 3.96 FIP	26	SW	3.96	14.4%	9.8%	1.5%	.306	4.10	14.7%	5.5%	208	+0.14	3.24	298	69
Framber Valdez L 2019 · 3.88 FIP	25	SW	3.88	25.3%	12.2%	2.5%	.304	3.11	23.5%	15.2%	407	-0.77	2.56	1,576	69
Matt Whitehouse L 2016 · 3.37 FIP	25	SU	3.37	19.0%	9.9%	1.1%	.304	4.46	16.9%	7.4%	276	+1.09	3.37	353	69
Tyler Holton L 2021 · 3.35 FIP	25	SW	3.35	22.0%	6.6%	2.3%	.393	3.41	22.0%	16.1%	224	+0.06	2.97	439	69
Garrett Schoenle L 2023 · 5.38 FIP	25	SP-	5.38	20.5%	15.0%	3.9%	.307	3.58	20.9%	12.1%	174	-1.80	2.32	362	68

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.9	97	22.8%	9.6%	1.17	4.42
Zack Godley ('21)	2.8	95	22.1%	9.6%	1.16	4.92
Brad Peacock ('21)	2.8	93	24.7%	10.1%	1.27	4.11
Bud Norris ('18)	6.1	122	21.7%	9.1%	1.15	4.45
Mickey Mahler ('77-'86, 0 WAR*)	2.0	81	20.4%*	10.3%*	1.20*	4.87*
Dick Kelley ('64-'71, 3 WAR*)	2.6	87	21.4%*	10.6%*	1.04*	4.26*
Odell Jones ('75-'88, 2 WAR*)	2.7	78	20.8%*	8.8%*	1.18*	4.62*