Framber Valdez
P
Detroit Tigers
+1.5
WAR
INJURED · Suspended # days (SU)
Age 32
LHP
5'11" / 230 lbs
MLB
Svc 6.0 · Ctrl thru 2028
peak 2.3 · 2027
ERA3.56
FIP3.69
xFIP4.10
SIERA4.27
K%23.6%
BB%8.2%
K-BB%15.4%
IP172
trajectory · 10 yrs
2.3peak
2027
K†6060
FB Velo
p4193.9
Whiff%
p1017.6%
K%
p1015.7%
xwOBA vs
p730.290
FB+4.2 (47%)
CH+1.0 (21%)
SI (47%)
CU (31%)
CT-0.6 (2%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 21 | ROK | DSL Astros Blue | 16 | 0 | 37 | 161 | 36 | 17 | 1 | 15.2% | 13.2% | 0.9% | 3.68 | 3.97 | +0.4 |
| 2016 | 22 | A+ | Lancaster JetHawks | 9 | 9 | 52 | 212 | 51 | 16 | 1 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 1.0% | 2.96 | 3.26 | +1.0 |
| 2017 | 23 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | 25 | 18 | 110 | 484 | 126 | 52 | 7 | 20.5% | 12.1% | 1.7% | 4.16 | 3.86 | +1.8 |
| 2018 | 24 | MLB | Houston Astros | 30 | 19 | 140 | 584 | 163 | 56 | 10 | 23.9% | 10.2% | 2.0% | 3.60 | 3.45 | +2.9 |
| 2019 | 25 | MLB | Houston Astros | 36 | 15 | 115 | 509 | 137 | 61 | 12 | 25.3% | 12.2% | 2.4% | 4.85 | 3.82 | +1.9 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | Houston Astros | 11 | 10 | 71 | 288 | 76 | 16 | 5 | 26.4% | 5.6% | 1.8% | 3.57 | 2.54 | +2.0 |
| 2021 | 27 | MLB | Houston Astros | 24 | 24 | 142 | 605 | 130 | 59 | 12 | 21.9% | 10.0% | 2.0% | 3.05 | 3.63 | +2.7 |
| 2022 | 28 | MLB | Houston Astros | 31 | 31 | 201 | 827 | 194 | 67 | 11 | 23.5% | 8.1% | 1.3% | 2.82 | 2.86 | +5.6 |
| 2023 | 29 | MLB | Houston Astros | 31 | 31 | 198 | 808 | 200 | 57 | 19 | 24.8% | 7.1% | 2.5% | 3.45 | 3.29 | +4.5 |
| 2024 | 30 | MLB | Houston Astros | 28 | 28 | 176 | 703 | 169 | 55 | 13 | 24.0% | 7.8% | 1.8% | 2.91 | 3.05 | +4.5 |
| 2025 | 31 | MLB | Houston Astros | 31 | 31 | 192 | 802 | 187 | 68 | 15 | 23.3% | 8.5% | 1.9% | 3.66 | 3.27 | +4.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 4 | 4 | 24 | 104 | 13 | 7 | 0 | 12.5% | 6.7% | 0.0% | 3.75 | 2.90 | +0.6 |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | DET | 56 | — | 56 | 236 | 48 | 19 | 4 | 20.3% | 7.9% | 1.8% | 3.26 | 3.36 | +1.0 |
| 2026 Total | 32 | MLB | DET | — | — | 80 | 340 | 61 | 26 | 4 | 17.9% | 7.5% | 1.2% | 3.41 | 3.22 | +1.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | DET | 26 | 26 | 142 | 600 | 117 | 48 | 11 | 19.6% | 8.1% | 1.9% | 3.78 | 3.87 | +2.3 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | DET | 23 | 23 | 126 | 530 | 100 | 44 | 10 | 18.9% | 8.3% | 2.0% | 3.92 | 4.01 | +1.8 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | DET | 20 | 20 | 110 | 464 | 84 | 39 | 10 | 18.1% | 8.5% | 2.1% | 4.07 | 4.16 | +1.4 |
| 2030 | 36 | MLB | DET | 17 | 17 | 96 | 404 | 70 | 35 | 9 | 17.4% | 8.7% | 2.2% | 4.22 | 4.33 | +1.0 |
| 2031 | 37 | MLB | DET | 15 | 15 | 82 | 348 | 58 | 31 | 8 | 16.6% | 9.0% | 2.3% | 4.39 | 4.50 | +0.6 |
| 2032 | 38 | MLB | DET | 13 | 13 | 71 | 298 | 53 | 25 | 7 | 17.7% | 8.5% | 2.5% | 4.41 | 4.42 | +0.5 |
| 2033 | 39 | MLB | DET | 11 | 11 | 60 | 255 | 43 | 22 | 7 | 16.9% | 8.8% | 2.6% | 4.53 | 4.60 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 276 | 220 | 1458 | 6087 | 1402 | 551 | 112 | 23.0% | 9.0% | 1.8% | 3.46 | 3.31 | +32.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 38 | 30 | 200 | 835 | 192 | 76 | 15 | 23.0% | 9.0% | 1.8% | 3.46 | 3.31 | +4.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Framber Valdez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.65 | 24.3% | 8.2% | 2.1% | — | 4.00 | 18.9% | 10.7% | 378 | +0.35 | — | — | — |
| Greg Smith L 2025 · 3.37 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.37 | 11.8% | 5.3% | 1.1% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.37 | 120 | 25 |
| Alejandro Astorga L 2024 · 4.01 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.01 | 14.4% | 8.2% | 2.0% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 311 | 24 |
| Oscar Rivera L 2028 · 3.71 FIP | 34 | SP- | 3.71 | 14.2% | 6.9% | 1.7% | .298 | 4.55 | 10.4% | 3.0% | 129 | +0.84 | 3.71 | 237 | 24 |
| Tomas Solis L 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.17 | 15.0% | 6.2% | 2.8% | .264 | 5.13 | 12.0% | 3.7% | 159 | +0.96 | 4.17 | 327 | 24 |
| Daniel Rodriguez L 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 32 | SP- | 3.84 | 13.1% | 9.7% | 1.1% | .335 | 4.77 | 20.8% | 13.0% | 112 | +0.93 | 2.89 | 391 | 24 |
| Aaron Laffey L 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.50 | 11.0% | 8.1% | 2.4% | .322 | 10.41 | 9.6% | 3.8% | 13 | +5.91 | 3.52 | 282 | 23 |
| Arturo Lopez L 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.79 | 13.7% | 6.2% | 3.8% | .301 | 4.73 | 10.9% | 4.2% | 217 | -0.06 | 4.33 | 445 | 23 |
| Jorge Castillo L 2027 · 4.49 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.49 | 16.8% | 9.2% | 3.0% | .292 | 4.82 | 12.4% | 7.2% | 186 | +0.33 | 4.49 | 408 | 23 |
| Everett Teaford L 2025 · 4.43 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.43 | 13.9% | 7.6% | 2.8% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.43 | 103 | 23 |
| Santiago Gutierrez L 2025 · 3.91 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.91 | 15.0% | 8.2% | 1.9% | .366 | 6.58 | 17.1% | 3.7% | 46 | +2.67 | 3.91 | 341 | 23 |
| Tsuyoshi Wada L 2028 · 3.59 FIP | 34 | SP- | 3.59 | 16.8% | 7.1% | 1.8% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.59 | 119 | 22 |
| Roy Merritt L 2025 · 3.92 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.92 | 16.2% | 5.8% | 2.6% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.92 | 129 | 21 |
| Dan Jennings L 2025 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 16.6% | 8.1% | 2.1% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 244 | 21 |
| Jose Alvarez L 2026 · 3.06 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.06 | 15.8% | 6.8% | 0.8% | .250 | 4.91 | 19.7% | 9.2% | 15 | +1.85 | 2.79 | 375 | 20 |
| Carlos Hernandez L 2026 · 2.83 FIP | 32 | SW | 2.83 | 17.9% | 5.5% | 1.0% | .360 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.83 | 331 | 20 |
| Brandon Mann L 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.73 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 4.1% | .320 | 3.99 | 19.0% | 7.6% | 128 | -0.74 | 3.59 | 190 | 19 |
| Felix Doubront L 2025 · 3.44 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.44 | 17.6% | 5.0% | 2.1% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.44 | 291 | 19 |
| Colt Hynes L 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.79 | 14.1% | 4.6% | 2.4% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.42 | 152 | 19 |
| Orlando Lara L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.40 | 14.7% | 6.5% | 3.1% | .346 | 4.07 | 22.0% | 14.2% | 104 | -0.33 | 3.83 | 426 | 19 |
| Andy Otero L 2024 · 4.35 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.35 | 14.5% | 8.9% | 2.5% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.86 | 200 | 18 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status FA
MLB Debut 2018
Service 6.948 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2028
First FA Year 2029
OPTDEF 20%
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Ext / FA-deal | $38M | +1.5 | $12M | -$26M |
| 2027 | Ext / FA-deal | $38M | +2.3 | $19M | -$19M |
| 2028 | Ext / FA-deal | $38M | +1.8 | $15M | -$23M |
| Totals | $115M | $46M | -$69M | ||
| Options · projected decision | |||
| 2029 | PLAYER OPT | $35.0M / $5.0M buyout | EXERCISE |
| 2030 | MUTUAL OPT | $40.0M / $5.0M buyout | DECLINE |
Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$69M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$69M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.