Framber Valdez
P
Detroit Tigers
Age 32
LHP
5'11" / 230 lbs
MLB
Svc 6.0 · Ctrl thru 2026
peak 3.3 · 2026
ILBereavement List (BRV)
2026 ROS PROJECTION108 act + 72 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8695vR 104
ERA3.63
FIP3.59
K%20.2%
BB%7.9%
K-BB%12.3%
ROS IP72
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 179 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p5795.0
Whiff%
p2021.1%
K%
p2518.6%
xwOBA vs
p450.317
FB+4.2 (47%)
CH+1.0 (20%)
SI (46%)
CU (28%)
CT-0.6 (5%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 21 | ROK | DSL Astros Blue | 16 | 0 | 37 | 161 | 36 | 17 | 1 | 0% | 2.3 | 15.2% | 13.2% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 3.68 | 3.97 | — |
| 2015 | 21 | ROK | DSL Astros Blue | 16 | 0 | 37 | 161 | 36 | 17 | 1 | 0% | 2.3 | 22.4% | 10.6% | 11.8% | 0.6% | 3.68 | 2.88 | — |
| 2016 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 9 | 9 | 52 | 212 | 51 | 16 | 1 | 100% | 5.7 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 1.1% | 2.96 | 3.33 | — |
| 2016 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 9 | 9 | 52 | 212 | 51 | 16 | 1 | 100% | 5.7 | 24.1% | 7.5% | 16.5% | 0.5% | 2.96 | 2.31 | — |
| 2017 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 18 | 110 | 484 | 126 | 52 | 7 | 72% | 4.4 | 20.5% | 12.1% | 8.4% | 1.7% | 4.16 | 3.83 | — |
| 2017 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 18 | 110 | 484 | 126 | 52 | 7 | 72% | 4.4 | 26.0% | 10.7% | 15.3% | 1.4% | 4.16 | 3.05 | — |
| 2018 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 30 | 19 | 140 | 584 | 163 | 56 | 10 | 63% | 4.7 | 23.9% | 10.2% | 13.7% | 1.9% | 3.60 | 3.41 | +3.3 |
| 2018 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 30 | 19 | 140 | 584 | 163 | 56 | 10 | 63% | 4.7 | 27.9% | 9.6% | 18.3% | 1.7% | 3.60 | 2.90 | +4.1 |
| 2019 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 15 | 115 | 509 | 137 | 61 | 12 | 42% | 3.2 | 25.3% | 12.2% | 13.1% | 2.4% | 4.85 | 3.82 | +2.1 |
| 2019 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 15 | 115 | 509 | 137 | 61 | 12 | 42% | 3.2 | 26.9% | 12.0% | 14.9% | 2.4% | 4.85 | 3.67 | +2.3 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | Houston Astros | 11 | 10 | 71 | 288 | 76 | 16 | 5 | 91% | 6.4 | 26.4% | 5.6% | 20.8% | 1.6% | 3.57 | 2.47 | +1.9 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | Houston Astros | 11 | 10 | 71 | 288 | 76 | 16 | 5 | 91% | 6.4 | 26.4% | 5.6% | 20.8% | 1.7% | 3.57 | 2.55 | +1.8 |
| 2021 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 24 | 142 | 605 | 130 | 59 | 12 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.9% | 10.0% | 11.9% | 2.0% | 3.05 | 3.60 | +3.0 |
| 2021 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 24 | 142 | 605 | 130 | 59 | 12 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.5% | 9.8% | 11.7% | 2.0% | 3.05 | 3.62 | +3.0 |
| 2022 | 28 | MLB | Houston Astros | 31 | 31 | 201 | 827 | 194 | 67 | 11 | 100% | 6.5 | 23.5% | 8.1% | 15.4% | 1.3% | 2.82 | 2.83 | +6.0 |
| 2022 | 28 | MLB | Houston Astros | 31 | 31 | 201 | 827 | 194 | 67 | 11 | 100% | 6.5 | 23.5% | 8.1% | 15.4% | 1.3% | 2.82 | 2.88 | +5.9 |
| 2023 | 29 | MLB | Houston Astros | 31 | 31 | 198 | 808 | 200 | 57 | 19 | 100% | 6.4 | 24.8% | 7.1% | 17.7% | 2.2% | 3.45 | 3.12 | +5.3 |
| 2023 | 29 | MLB | Houston Astros | 31 | 31 | 198 | 808 | 200 | 57 | 19 | 100% | 6.4 | 24.8% | 7.1% | 17.7% | 2.4% | 3.45 | 3.19 | +5.1 |
| 2024 | 30 | MLB | Houston Astros | 28 | 28 | 176 | 703 | 169 | 55 | 13 | 100% | 6.3 | 24.0% | 7.8% | 16.2% | 1.7% | 2.91 | 3.02 | +4.9 |
| 2024 | 30 | MLB | Houston Astros | 28 | 28 | 176 | 703 | 169 | 55 | 13 | 100% | 6.3 | 24.0% | 7.8% | 16.2% | 1.8% | 2.91 | 3.08 | +4.8 |
| 2025 | 31 | MLB | Houston Astros | 31 | 31 | 192 | 802 | 187 | 68 | 15 | 100% | 6.2 | 23.3% | 8.5% | 14.8% | 1.8% | 3.66 | 3.17 | +5.0 |
| 2025 | 31 | MLB | Houston Astros | 31 | 31 | 192 | 802 | 187 | 68 | 15 | 100% | 6.2 | 23.3% | 8.5% | 14.8% | 1.9% | 3.66 | 3.23 | +4.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 19 | 19 | 108 | 469 | 87 | 36 | 11 | 100% | 5.7 | 18.6% | 7.7% | 10.9% | 2.3% | 4.10 | 3.79 | +2.0 |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | DET | 12 | 12 | 72 | 303 | 61 | 24 | 7 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.2% | 7.9% | 12.3% | 2.2% | 3.63 | 3.59 | +1.0 |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | DET | 12 | 12 | 72 | 304 | 61 | 24 | 6 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.2% | 7.9% | 12.3% | 2.1% | 3.58 | 3.54 | +1.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 32 | MLB | DET | — | — | 179 | 772 | 148 | 60 | 18 | — | — | 19.2% | 7.8% | 11.4% | 2.3% | 3.91 | 3.71 | +3.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 32 | MLB | DET | — | — | 179 | 758 | 148 | 60 | 17 | — | — | 19.6% | 7.9% | 11.7% | 2.3% | 3.89 | 3.70 | +3.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | DET | 24 | 24 | 158 | 666 | 132 | 56 | 16 | 100% | 6.6 | 19.8% | 8.3% | 11.5% | 2.5% | 4.11 | 4.21 | +2.2 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | DET | 22 | 22 | 144 | 606 | 115 | 54 | 17 | 100% | 6.5 | 18.9% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 2.8% | 4.35 | 4.51 | +1.5 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | DET | 20 | 20 | 129 | 544 | 98 | 51 | 17 | 100% | 6.4 | 18.0% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 3.1% | 4.65 | 4.85 | +0.8 |
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | DET | 25 | 25 | 158 | 667 | 132 | 56 | 16 | 100% | 6.3 | 19.8% | 8.3% | 11.5% | 2.3% | 4.05 | 4.15 | +2.3 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | DET | 22 | 22 | 144 | 608 | 115 | 54 | 16 | 100% | 6.5 | 18.9% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 2.6% | 4.29 | 4.45 | +1.6 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | DET | 20 | 20 | 129 | 545 | 98 | 51 | 16 | 100% | 6.5 | 18.0% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 3.0% | 4.58 | 4.78 | +0.9 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 286 | 264 | 1690 | 7071 | 1546 | 608 | 152 | 92% | 5.9 | 21.9% | 8.6% | 13.3% | 2.1% | 3.66 | 3.52 | +37.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 31 | 200 | 837 | 183 | 72 | 18 | 92% | 5.9 | 21.9% | 8.6% | 13.3% | 2.1% | 3.66 | 3.52 | +4.4 | ||
| Career | — | 291 | 235 | 1541 | 6452 | 1476 | 580 | 118 | 81% | 5.3 | 22.9% | 9.0% | 13.9% | 1.8% | 3.50 | 3.31 | +37.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 38 | 30 | 200 | 837 | 191 | 75 | 15 | 81% | 5.3 | 22.9% | 9.0% | 13.9% | 1.8% | 3.50 | 3.31 | +4.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Framber Valdez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.60 | 24.0% | 8.2% | 2.0% | — | 4.50 | 19.0% | 10.1% | 430 | +0.90 | — | — | — |
| J.A. Happ L 2026 · 3.28 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.28 | 21.1% | 5.7% | 2.2% | .308 | 3.72 | 23.1% | 15.9% | 518 | +0.44 | 3.28 | 1,053 | 36 |
| Jorge De La Rosa L 2028 · 3.68 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.68 | 21.1% | 9.8% | 2.1% | .284 | 4.20 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 256 | +0.52 | 3.68 | 405 | 33 |
| Cole Hamels L 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.76 | 23.6% | 9.0% | 2.8% | .294 | 4.05 | 21.4% | 12.9% | 480 | +0.29 | 3.22 | 893 | 32 |
| Francisco Liriano L 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.57 | 23.0% | 11.5% | 3.6% | .289 | 4.59 | 19.5% | 7.6% | 301 | +0.02 | 3.07 | 650 | 31 |
| CC Sabathia L 2029 · 4.30 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.30 | 18.9% | 6.5% | 3.6% | .311 | 3.96 | 20.1% | 12.1% | 481 | -0.34 | 3.75 | 756 | 31 |
| Gio Gonzalez L 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.05 | 19.8% | 10.5% | 2.4% | .298 | 4.12 | 21.8% | 11.6% | 139 | +0.07 | 2.90 | 864 | 30 |
| Scott Diamond L 2024 · 3.36 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.36 | 12.7% | 4.8% | 1.3% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.36 | 316 | 30 |
| Yusei Kikuchi L 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.90 | 25.9% | 6.9% | 3.9% | .311 | 3.68 | 25.1% | 17.3% | 385 | -0.22 | 3.25 | 1,019 | 30 |
| C.J. Wilson L 2028 · 3.77 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.77 | 19.9% | 8.0% | 2.4% | .272 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 132 | 30 |
| Tomas Solis L 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.35 | 15.0% | 6.2% | 3.1% | .264 | 5.50 | 12.0% | 3.7% | 159 | +1.15 | 4.35 | 327 | 29 |
| Jon Lester L 2026 · 3.25 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.25 | 24.7% | 6.5% | 2.6% | .253 | 4.01 | 21.6% | 14.0% | 534 | +0.76 | 2.74 | 1,144 | 29 |
| Oscar Rivera L 2028 · 3.85 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.85 | 14.2% | 6.9% | 2.0% | .298 | 4.45 | 10.4% | 3.0% | 129 | +0.60 | 3.85 | 237 | 28 |
| Jorge Castillo L 2027 · 4.40 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.40 | 16.8% | 9.2% | 2.8% | .292 | 4.68 | 12.4% | 7.2% | 186 | +0.28 | 4.40 | 408 | 28 |
| Alejandro Astorga L 2024 · 4.17 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.17 | 14.4% | 8.2% | 2.3% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.78 | 311 | 28 |
| Eric Stults L 2029 · 4.25 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.25 | 14.5% | 5.9% | 2.9% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.25 | 138 | 28 |
| Duane Below L 2024 · 4.42 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.42 | 14.7% | 5.1% | 3.5% | .338 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 189 | 28 |
| Arturo Lopez L 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.71 | 13.7% | 6.2% | 3.6% | .301 | 4.61 | 10.9% | 4.2% | 217 | -0.10 | 4.24 | 445 | 28 |
| Tsuyoshi Wada L 2028 · 3.68 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.68 | 16.8% | 7.1% | 2.0% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 119 | 27 |
| Roy Merritt L 2025 · 3.88 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.88 | 16.2% | 5.8% | 2.6% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.88 | 129 | 27 |
| Yohan Flande L 2025 · 3.16 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.16 | 15.9% | 6.4% | 1.1% | .346 | 4.20 | 10.0% | -1.9% | 23 | +1.04 | 3.16 | 335 | 26 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 143 | 20.2% | 8.7% | 0.99 | 4.17 |
| Jaime García ('18) | 4 | 135 | 19.6% | 8.5% | 1.05 | 4.23 |
| Edinson Volquez ('17) | 3 | 161 | 17.9% | 9.6% | 0.88 | 4.39 |
| Gio Gonzalez ('20) | 6 | 141 | 21.8% | 9.5% | 0.85 | 3.85 |
| Jimmy Nelson ('21) | 5 | 117 | 22.2% | 9.1% | 0.97 | 4.08 |
| Andrew Cashner ('19) | 5 | 157 | 16.7% | 9.2% | 1.11 | 4.54 |
| Tanner Roark ('20) | 6 | 149 | 19.8% | 7.6% | 1.24 | 4.19 |