Framber Valdez — OGILVIE

Framber Valdez P Detroit Tigers

Age 32 LHP 5'11" / 230 lbs MLB Svc 6.0 · Ctrl thru 2026 peak 3.7 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION164 act + 15 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 91100vR 108

ERA3.80

FIP3.78

K%18.5%

BB%8.3%

K-BB%10.2%

ROS IP15

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 178 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—55

STUF5555

CTRL5050

CMD4550

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5494.8

Whiff%

p1019.7%

p1417.0%

xwOBA vs

p400.323

FB+4.2 (48%)

CH+1.0 (19%)

SI (44%)

CU (29%)

CT-0.6 (4%)

Contract CONFIRMED · hand-curated extension

Status FA

MLB Debut 2018

Service 6.948 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$2M	+0.2	$0.7M	-$1M
Totals		$2M		$0.7M	-$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	21	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	16	0	37	161	36	17	1	0%	2.3	15.2%	13.2%	2.0%	0.9%	3.68	3.97	—
2015	21	ROK RAW	DSL Astros Blue	16	0	37	161	36	17	1	0%	2.3	22.4%	10.6%	11.8%	0.6%	3.68	2.88	—
2016	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	9	9	52	212	51	16	1	100%	5.7	18.1%	9.1%	9.0%	1.0%	2.96	3.27	—
2016	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	9	9	52	212	51	16	1	100%	5.7	24.1%	7.5%	16.5%	0.5%	2.96	2.31	—
2017	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	18	110	484	126	52	7	72%	4.4	20.5%	12.1%	8.4%	1.7%	4.16	3.85	—
2017	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	18	110	484	126	52	7	72%	4.4	26.0%	10.7%	15.3%	1.4%	4.16	3.05	—
2018	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	19	140	584	163	56	10	63%	4.7	23.9%	10.2%	13.7%	2.0%	3.60	3.47	+2.4
2018	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	30	19	140	584	163	56	10	63%	4.7	27.9%	9.6%	18.3%	1.7%	3.60	2.90	+3.5
2019	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	15	115	509	137	61	12	42%	3.2	25.3%	12.2%	13.1%	2.5%	4.85	3.88	+0.9
2019	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	15	115	509	137	61	12	42%	3.2	26.9%	12.0%	14.9%	2.4%	4.85	3.67	+1.2
2020	26	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	11	10	71	288	76	16	5	91%	6.4	26.4%	5.6%	20.8%	1.8%	3.57	2.56	+2.2
2020	26	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	11	10	71	288	76	16	5	91%	6.4	26.4%	5.6%	20.8%	1.7%	3.57	2.55	+2.2
2021	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	142	605	130	59	12	100%	5.9	21.9%	10.0%	11.9%	2.2%	3.05	3.70	+2.1
2021	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	142	605	130	59	12	100%	5.9	21.5%	9.8%	11.7%	2.0%	3.05	3.62	+2.2
2022	28	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	31	31	201	827	194	67	11	100%	6.5	23.5%	8.1%	15.4%	1.4%	2.82	2.90	+5.1
2022	28	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	31	31	201	827	194	67	11	100%	6.5	23.5%	8.1%	15.4%	1.3%	2.82	2.88	+5.2
2023	29	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	31	31	198	808	200	57	19	100%	6.4	24.8%	7.1%	17.7%	2.4%	3.45	3.23	+4.1
2023	29	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	31	31	198	808	200	57	19	100%	6.4	24.8%	7.1%	17.7%	2.4%	3.45	3.23	+4.1
2023	29	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	31	31	198	808	200	57	19	100%	6.4	24.8%	7.1%	17.7%	2.4%	3.45	3.19	+4.2
2024	30	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	28	28	176	703	169	55	13	100%	6.3	24.0%	7.8%	16.2%	1.9%	2.91	3.10	+4.0
2024	30	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	28	28	176	703	169	55	13	100%	6.3	24.0%	7.8%	16.2%	1.9%	2.91	3.10	+4.0
2024	30	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	28	28	176	703	169	55	13	100%	6.3	24.0%	7.8%	16.2%	1.8%	2.91	3.08	+4.0
2025	31	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	31	31	192	802	187	68	15	100%	6.2	23.3%	8.5%	14.8%	1.9%	3.66	3.26	+3.9
2025	31	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	31	31	192	802	187	68	15	100%	6.2	23.3%	8.5%	14.8%	1.9%	3.66	3.26	+3.9
2025	31	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	31	31	192	802	187	68	15	100%	6.2	23.3%	8.5%	14.8%	1.9%	3.66	3.23	+4.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			217	195	1244	5196	1174	448	102	90%	5.7	22.6%	8.6%	14.0%	2.0%	3.45	3.36	+23.6
▸ 2026 season
YTD	32	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	29	29	164	713	121	60	15	100%	5.6	17.0%	8.4%	8.6%	2.2%	4.01	3.94	+1.9
YTD	32	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	29	29	164	713	121	60	15	100%	5.6	17.0%	8.4%	8.6%	2.2%	4.01	3.94	+1.9
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	32	MLB RAW	DET	29	29	164	713	121	60	15	100%	5.6	17.0%	8.4%	8.6%	2.1%	4.01	3.89	+2.0
SO FAR	32	MLB RAW	DET	29	29	164	713	121	60	15	100%	5.6	17.0%	8.4%	8.6%	2.1%	4.01	3.89	+2.0
ROS	32	MLB MLE	DET	2	2	15	63	12	5	1	100%	7.4	18.5%	8.3%	10.2%	2.2%	3.80	3.78	+0.2
ROS	32	MLB CTX	DET	2	2	15	63	12	5	1	100%	7.5	18.5%	8.3%	10.2%	2.1%	3.75	3.73	+0.2
2026 TOT	32	MLB MLE	DET	—	—	178	776	133	65	16	—	—	17.1%	8.4%	8.7%	2.1%	4.00	3.93	+2.1
FULL	32	MLB A+C	DET	—	—	178	754	133	65	16	—	—	17.6%	8.7%	8.9%	2.2%	3.99	3.90	+2.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	33	MLB MLE	DET	25	25	158	666	121	58	16	100%	6.3	18.2%	8.8%	9.4%	2.4%	4.27	4.37	+1.0
2028	34	MLB MLE	DET	23	23	144	606	105	56	16	100%	6.2	17.3%	9.3%	8.0%	2.7%	4.51	4.68	+0.4
2029	35	MLB MLE	DET	20	20	129	544	89	53	17	100%	6.4	16.3%	9.8%	6.5%	3.0%	4.81	5.01	-0.2
2027	33	MLB CTX	DET	25	25	158	667	121	59	15	100%	6.3	18.2%	8.8%	9.4%	2.3%	4.21	4.31	+1.0
2028	34	MLB CTX	DET	23	23	144	608	105	56	16	100%	6.3	17.3%	9.3%	8.0%	2.6%	4.45	4.62	+0.4
2029	35	MLB CTX	DET	20	20	129	545	89	54	16	100%	6.5	16.3%	9.8%	6.5%	2.9%	4.74	4.94	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		287	265	1689	7074	1500	621	150	92%	5.9	21.2%	8.8%	12.4%	2.1%	3.71	3.59	+27.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	31	200	838	178	74	18	92%	5.9	21.2%	8.8%	12.4%	2.1%	3.71	3.59	+3.2
Career	—	MLE		301	245	1597	6696	1510	604	130	81%	5.3	22.5%	9.0%	13.5%	1.9%	3.52	3.40	+24.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		38	31	200	838	189	76	16	81%	5.3	22.5%	9.0%	13.5%	1.9%	3.52	3.40	+2.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Framber Valdez (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.67	24.0%	8.2%	2.2%	—	4.67	17.3%	8.1%	430	+1.00	—	—	—
Gio Gonzalez L 2018 · 3.94 FIP	32	SP	3.94	19.8%	10.5%	2.2%	.298	4.05	21.8%	11.6%	139	+0.11	2.90	864	65
Yusei Kikuchi L 2023 · 3.90 FIP	32	SP	3.90	25.9%	6.9%	3.9%	.311	3.76	24.9%	17.0%	407	-0.14	3.23	1,041	52
David Price L 2018 · 3.86 FIP	32	SP	3.86	24.5%	6.9%	3.5%	.268	3.61	23.8%	16.6%	181	-0.25	2.65	922	51
Wade Miley L 2019 · 4.33 FIP	32	SP	4.33	19.4%	8.5%	3.3%	.284	3.75	17.9%	10.1%	230	-0.58	3.36	1,167	50
Cole Hamels L 2016 · 3.74 FIP	32	SP	3.74	23.6%	9.0%	2.7%	.294	4.12	21.4%	12.9%	480	+0.38	3.21	893	49
Francisco Liriano L 2016 · 4.57 FIP	32	SP	4.57	23.0%	11.5%	3.6%	.289	4.61	19.5%	7.6%	301	+0.04	3.14	650	47
Jon Lester L 2016 · 3.34 FIP	32	SP	3.34	24.7%	6.5%	2.7%	.253	4.12	21.6%	14.0%	534	+0.78	2.81	1,144	44
Scott Kazmir L 2016 · 4.11 FIP	32	SP	4.11	22.7%	8.3%	3.4%	.290	6.40	8.7%	-4.3%	12	+2.29	3.84	395	40
Jake Arrieta R 2018 · 3.97 FIP	32	SP	3.97	19.1%	7.9%	2.7%	.283	4.75	17.9%	9.6%	279	+0.78	2.13	1,046	39
J.A. Happ L 2015 · 3.37 FIP	32	SP	3.37	21.1%	5.7%	2.4%	.308	3.73	23.1%	15.9%	518	+0.36	3.37	1,053	35
Iván Nova R 2019 · 4.64 FIP	32	SP	4.64	14.1%	5.7%	3.7%	.317	6.14	10.2%	0.0%	19	+1.50	4.03	810	35
Tanner Roark R 2019 · 4.47 FIP	32	SP	4.47	21.9%	6.9%	4.3%	.313	4.76	19.6%	9.9%	94	+0.29	3.13	942	35
Jorge De La Rosa L 2015 · 3.86 FIP	34	SP	3.86	21.1%	9.8%	2.4%	.284	4.36	18.4%	8.9%	256	+0.50	3.86	405	33
Yohan Flande L 2017 · 3.18 FIP	31	SP	3.18	15.9%	6.4%	1.1%	.346	4.21	10.0%	-1.9%	23	+1.03	3.18	335	33
Yovani Gallardo R 2018 · 4.33 FIP	32	SP	4.33	14.9%	9.6%	2.3%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.90	577	33
Scott Diamond L 2016 · 3.46 FIP	30	SP	3.46	12.7%	4.8%	1.5%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	316	32
Dallas Keuchel L 2020 · 2.98 FIP	32	SP	2.98	16.3%	6.6%	0.8%	.255	4.54	14.9%	6.1%	328	+1.56	2.86	1,402	32
Hyun Jin Ryu L 2019 · 2.82 FIP	32	SP	2.82	22.5%	3.0%	2.3%	.274	3.75	21.2%	15.9%	263	+0.93	2.79	725	31
CC Sabathia L 2015 · 4.31 FIP	35	SP	4.31	18.9%	6.5%	3.6%	.311	3.97	20.1%	12.1%	481	-0.34	3.76	756	30
Tomas Solis L 2015 · 4.20 FIP	32	SP	4.20	15.0%	6.2%	2.9%	.264	5.09	12.0%	3.7%	159	+0.89	4.20	327	30

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.0	150	19.2%	8.9%	0.98	4.28
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01
Alex Cobb ('23)	4.0	114	19.5%	6.6%	1.03	4.14
Alek Manoah ('24)	2.1	105	23.4%	9.0%	1.03	3.34