Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | ROK | ACL White Sox | 10 | 0 | 10 | 41 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.8% | 7.3% | 19.5% | 0.0% | 2.70 | 1.76 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | ROK | ACL White Sox | 10 | 0 | 10 | 41 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.8% | 7.3% | 19.5% | 0.0% | 2.70 | 1.80 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 30 | 14 | 85 | 362 | 101 | 34 | 10 | 47% | 2.8 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 10.6% | 3.6% | 3.92 | 4.66 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 30 | 14 | 85 | 362 | 101 | 34 | 10 | 47% | 2.8 | 27.9% | 9.4% | 18.5% | 2.8% | 3.92 | 3.45 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | Birmingham Barons | 34 | 18 | 103 | 462 | 117 | 63 | 15 | 53% | 3.0 | 20.5% | 15.0% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 6.22 | 5.35 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | Birmingham Barons | 34 | 18 | 103 | 462 | 117 | 63 | 15 | 53% | 3.0 | 25.3% | 13.6% | 11.7% | 3.2% | 6.22 | 4.56 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 33 | 6 | 70 | 277 | 88 | 23 | 1 | 18% | 2.1 | 25.2% | 8.0% | 17.1% | 0.6% | 1.67 | 2.34 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 33 | 6 | 70 | 277 | 88 | 23 | 1 | 18% | 2.1 | 31.8% | 8.3% | 23.5% | 0.4% | 1.67 | 1.76 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 0 | 61 | 262 | 56 | 21 | 7 | 0% | 1.3 | 17.9% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 2.9% | 3.82 | 4.26 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 0 | 61 | 262 | 56 | 21 | 7 | 0% | 1.3 | 21.4% | 8.0% | 13.4% | 2.7% | 3.82 | 3.78 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | 25 | 0 | 34 | 136 | 31 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.4 | 20.1% | 9.3% | 10.8% | 2.4% | 2.12 | 3.91 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | CWS | 42 | 0 | 44 | 186 | 39 | 18 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.8% | 9.6% | 11.2% | 2.8% | 4.47 | 4.47 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | CWS | 4 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.8% | 9.6% | 11.2% | 2.8% | 4.47 | 4.47 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 28 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 78 | 322 | 70 | 30 | 8 | — | — | 21.7% | 9.3% | 12.4% | 2.5% | 3.45 | 4.23 | +0.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 28 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 4 | 19 | 4 | 2 | 1 | — | — | 20.8% | 9.6% | 11.2% | 2.8% | 4.47 | 4.09 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | CWS | 40 | 0 | 42 | 178 | 37 | 17 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.9% | 9.8% | 11.1% | 3.0% | 4.54 | 4.59 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | CWS | 38 | 0 | 40 | 167 | 35 | 17 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.7% | 10.1% | 10.7% | 3.2% | 4.65 | 4.74 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | CWS | 35 | 0 | 37 | 156 | 32 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.4% | 10.4% | 10.1% | 3.4% | 4.81 | 4.92 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | CWS | 14 | 0 | 15 | 63 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.9% | 9.8% | 11.1% | 3.0% | 4.54 | 4.59 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | CWS | 21 | 0 | 22 | 93 | 19 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.7% | 10.1% | 10.7% | 3.2% | 4.65 | 4.74 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | CWS | 24 | 0 | 25 | 106 | 22 | 11 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.4% | 10.4% | 10.1% | 3.4% | 4.81 | 4.92 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 64 | 0 | 67 | 282 | 58 | 28 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.7% | 10.1% | 10.6% | 3.2% | 4.67 | 4.38 | +0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 174 | 84 | 27 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.7% | 10.1% | 10.6% | 3.2% | 4.67 | 4.38 | +2.4 | ||
| Career | — | 180 | 38 | 363 | 1540 | 327 | 169 | 43 | 21% | 2.0 | 21.2% | 11.0% | 10.3% | 2.8% | 3.92 | 4.24 | +4.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 99 | 21 | 200 | 848 | 180 | 93 | 24 | 21% | 2.0 | 21.2% | 11.0% | 10.3% | 2.8% | 3.92 | 4.24 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Garrett Schoenle (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.47 | 20.8% | 9.6% | 2.8% | — | 4.74 | 20.7% | 10.6% | 119 | +0.27 | — | — | — |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.62 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .281 | 3.41 | 22.7% | 17.3% | 82 | -0.21 | 3.41 | 153 | 85 |
| Jeremy Horst L 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.06 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 2.1% | .291 | 3.73 | 15.1% | 2.7% | 48 | -0.33 | 3.73 | 108 | 82 |
| Ashur Tolliver L 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.24 | 21.3% | 9.8% | 3.1% | .308 | 5.05 | 13.8% | -5.1% | 35 | +0.81 | 3.43 | 134 | 81 |
| Kevin Chapman L 2026 · 3.31 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.31 | 23.2% | 9.5% | 1.8% | .348 | 4.21 | 19.2% | 8.0% | 39 | +0.90 | 3.04 | 153 | 80 |
| Juan Grullon L 2024 · 4.86 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.86 | 19.8% | 10.9% | 3.7% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.86 | 134 | 80 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.84 | 21.1% | 7.3% | 2.9% | .267 | 3.21 | 23.3% | 15.2% | 73 | -0.63 | 2.44 | 124 | 79 |
| Jordan Harrison L 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.93 | 19.1% | 9.7% | 2.2% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.88 | 244 | 78 |
| Jeff Ibarra L 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.62 | 17.8% | 9.7% | 1.5% | .321 | 3.39 | 19.2% | 13.8% | 66 | -0.23 | 2.95 | 101 | 78 |
| Dylan Phillips L 2025 · 4.01 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.01 | 22.8% | 10.1% | 2.9% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.69 | 221 | 77 |
| Matt Whitehouse L 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.02 | 20.1% | 10.9% | 2.2% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.38 | 353 | 76 |
| Jason Blanchard L 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.60 | 19.9% | 12.4% | 2.9% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.44 | 171 | 76 |
| Jimmy Reyes L 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.73 | 13.8% | 8.0% | 3.2% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.00 | 200 | 76 |
| Aaron Brown L 2025 · 3.88 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.88 | 22.9% | 13.5% | 1.8% | .317 | 4.79 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 129 | +0.91 | 3.88 | 269 | 76 |
| Dario Alvarez L 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.61 | 24.7% | 12.4% | 1.8% | .336 | 3.52 | 20.7% | 8.3% | 27 | -0.09 | 3.41 | 160 | 75 |
| Brendan Nail L 2025 · 4.43 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.43 | 19.5% | 11.4% | 2.8% | .262 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.67 | 165 | 75 |
| Colt Hynes L 2028 · 3.44 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.44 | 16.2% | 8.4% | 1.2% | .290 | 3.67 | 17.9% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.23 | 3.44 | 152 | 75 |
| Tristan Garnett L 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.13 | 19.8% | 9.8% | 2.7% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.50 | 185 | 75 |
| Jake McSteen L 2026 · 4.92 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.92 | 19.7% | 6.4% | 4.9% | .348 | 2.22 | 18.9% | 13.2% | 18 | -2.70 | 2.22 | 286 | 74 |
| Edward Paredes L 2027 · 3.49 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.49 | 24.1% | 13.0% | 1.4% | .225 | 3.53 | 23.7% | 14.0% | 86 | +0.04 | 2.29 | 130 | 74 |
| Jake Diekman L 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.40 | 26.5% | 11.9% | 1.9% | .310 | 3.21 | 27.0% | 15.3% | 106 | -0.19 | 2.33 | 455 | 74 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 41 | 20.7% | 9.9% | 1.19 | 4.61 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |