Brent Headrick
P
New York Yankees
+0.3
WAR
Age 28
LHP
6'6" / 235 lbs
MLB
peak 0.3 · 2027
ERA4.45
FIP4.15
xFIP3.84
SIERA3.60
K%25.6%
BB%8.1%
K-BB%17.5%
IP37
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2027
STUF6060
CTRL5050
CMD6060
K†6060
FB Velo
p4193.9
Whiff%
p8430.6%
K%
p5823.7%
xwOBA vs
p490.313
FB+1.7 (62%)
SI (13%)
SL-2.2 (34%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | 16 | 15 | 63 | 286 | 88 | 35 | 5 | 22.9% | 14.0% | 2.6% | 3.71 | 4.34 | +0.5 |
| 2022 | 24 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | 25 | 23 | 108 | 439 | 136 | 25 | 18 | 24.4% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 3.32 | 4.66 | +0.8 |
| 2023 | 25 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 33 | 12 | 101 | 438 | 113 | 36 | 18 | 23.5% | 8.5% | 4.5% | 5.10 | 4.64 | +0.8 |
| 2024 | 26 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 8 | 5 | 22 | 95 | 28 | 9 | 4 | 27.4% | 8.5% | 4.3% | 2.01 | 4.21 | +0.2 |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB | New York Yankees | 37 | 0 | 47 | 190 | 54 | 13 | 6 | 26.9% | 7.0% | 3.0% | 2.87 | 3.39 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | New York Yankees | 12 | 0 | 10 | 48 | 12 | 4 | 0 | — | — | — | 1.74 | — | — |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | NYY | 26 | — | 26 | 111 | 28 | 8 | 4 | 25.3% | 7.3% | 3.6% | 4.30 | 4.23 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 28 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 37 | 159 | 40 | 12 | 4 | 25.2% | 7.6% | 2.5% | 3.58 | 3.04 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | NYY | 36 | — | 36 | 152 | 37 | 12 | 5 | 24.6% | 7.7% | 3.3% | 4.18 | 4.18 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | NYY | 35 | — | 35 | 147 | 35 | 12 | 5 | 23.9% | 7.9% | 3.3% | 4.24 | 4.28 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | NYY | 34 | — | 34 | 142 | 33 | 12 | 5 | 23.3% | 8.1% | 3.4% | 4.33 | 4.39 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB | NYY | 32 | — | 32 | 136 | 31 | 11 | 5 | 22.7% | 8.3% | 3.4% | 4.43 | 4.50 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB | NYY | 31 | — | 31 | 130 | 29 | 11 | 5 | 22.1% | 8.5% | 3.5% | 4.55 | 4.63 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 34 | MLB | NYY | 29 | — | 29 | 124 | 26 | 11 | 4 | 21.3% | 8.7% | 3.6% | 4.68 | 4.77 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 131 | 55 | 352 | 1496 | 365 | 131 | 59 | 24.4% | 8.8% | 4.0% | 3.71 | 4.32 | +3.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 75 | 31 | 200 | 851 | 208 | 75 | 34 | 24.4% | 8.8% | 4.0% | 3.71 | 4.32 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Brent Headrick (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.23 | 25.3% | 7.3% | 3.6% | — | 4.28 | 24.0% | 16.1% | 104 | +0.05 | — | — | — |
| Adam Liberatore L 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.69 | 21.1% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .267 | 3.20 | 23.3% | 15.2% | 73 | -0.49 | 2.44 | 124 | 82 |
| Ashur Tolliver L 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.19 | 21.3% | 9.8% | 3.0% | .308 | 5.03 | 13.8% | -5.1% | 35 | +0.84 | 3.48 | 134 | 80 |
| Jeff Ibarra L 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.79 | 17.8% | 9.7% | 1.8% | .321 | 3.32 | 19.2% | 13.8% | 66 | -0.47 | 2.89 | 101 | 80 |
| Sean Doolittle L 2026 · 3.09 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.09 | 26.3% | 8.8% | 2.0% | .306 | 2.42 | 32.5% | 28.6% | 135 | -0.67 | 1.42 | 259 | 77 |
| Daniel Stumpf L 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.58 | 25.2% | 8.8% | 2.7% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.84 | 238 | 75 |
| Jake McSteen L 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.58 | 19.7% | 6.4% | 4.3% | .348 | 2.22 | 18.9% | 13.2% | 18 | -2.36 | 2.22 | 286 | 75 |
| Hector Hernandez L 2026 · 3.35 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.35 | 20.2% | 9.0% | 1.5% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 121 | 75 |
| Hunter Cervenka L 2026 · 3.04 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.04 | 24.6% | 6.6% | 2.1% | .268 | 3.13 | 26.6% | 13.5% | 55 | +0.09 | 3.04 | 194 | 75 |
| Jordan Harrison L 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.82 | 19.1% | 9.7% | 2.0% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.82 | 244 | 75 |
| Dan Jennings L 2026 · 3.06 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.06 | 18.9% | 7.4% | 1.1% | .294 | 3.79 | 17.8% | 8.5% | 188 | +0.73 | 3.06 | 244 | 75 |
| Boone Logan L 2028 · 3.05 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.05 | 26.2% | 9.5% | 1.8% | .352 | 3.11 | 29.7% | 20.6% | 78 | +0.06 | 2.64 | 113 | 74 |
| Kevin Chapman L 2026 · 3.34 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.34 | 23.2% | 9.5% | 1.8% | .348 | 4.07 | 19.2% | 8.0% | 39 | +0.73 | 3.02 | 153 | 74 |
| Jose Meraz L 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.70 | 14.2% | 6.8% | 1.7% | .286 | 4.02 | 13.0% | 1.5% | 52 | +0.32 | 3.70 | 110 | 74 |
| Roy Merritt L 2028 · 3.92 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.92 | 13.3% | 5.9% | 2.2% | .293 | 3.92 | 16.2% | 10.4% | 116 | +0.00 | 3.92 | 129 | 74 |
| Colt Hynes L 2028 · 3.42 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.42 | 16.2% | 8.4% | 1.1% | .290 | 3.68 | 17.9% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.26 | 3.42 | 152 | 74 |
| Josh Outman L 2029 · 4.54 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.54 | 15.3% | 3.7% | 4.1% | .323 | 5.68 | 12.8% | -1.0% | 86 | +1.14 | 4.54 | 106 | 74 |
| Jeremy Horst L 2027 · 4.12 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.12 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 2.2% | .291 | 3.71 | 15.1% | 2.7% | 48 | -0.41 | 3.71 | 108 | 73 |
| Adrian Gusman L 2025 · 4.32 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.32 | 17.9% | 9.7% | 2.7% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.94 | 141 | 73 |
| Franklin Morales L 2027 · 3.33 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.33 | 15.9% | 5.4% | 1.6% | .271 | 4.03 | 15.0% | 7.0% | 39 | +0.70 | 3.33 | 101 | 73 |
| Patrick Schuster L 2024 · 4.42 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.42 | 19.8% | 8.3% | 3.5% | .381 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.15 | 160 | 72 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.