Brent Headrick
P
New York Yankees
Age 28
LHP
6'6" / 235 lbs
MLB
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 0.8 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION46 act + 84 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 6978vR 88
ERA3.25
FIP3.25
K%27.4%
BB%7.4%
K-BB%19.9%
ROS IP84
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 131 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p4594.2
Whiff%
p9032.6%
K%
p7927.6%
xwOBA vs
p900.271
FB+1.7 (60%)
SI (11%)
SL-2.2 (35%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 15 | 63 | 286 | 88 | 35 | 5 | 94% | 3.9 | 22.9% | 14.0% | 8.9% | 2.9% | 3.71 | 4.52 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 15 | 63 | 286 | 88 | 35 | 5 | 94% | 3.9 | 30.8% | 12.2% | 18.5% | 1.7% | 3.71 | 3.00 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 23 | 108 | 439 | 136 | 25 | 18 | 92% | 4.3 | 24.4% | 6.4% | 18.0% | 5.3% | 3.32 | 4.78 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 23 | 108 | 439 | 136 | 25 | 18 | 92% | 4.3 | 31.0% | 5.7% | 25.3% | 4.1% | 3.32 | 3.44 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 12 | 101 | 438 | 113 | 36 | 18 | 36% | 3.1 | 23.5% | 8.5% | 15.0% | 4.3% | 5.10 | 4.55 | +1.0 |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 12 | 101 | 438 | 113 | 36 | 18 | 36% | 3.1 | 25.8% | 8.2% | 17.6% | 4.1% | 5.10 | 4.25 | +1.4 |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 8 | 5 | 22 | 95 | 28 | 9 | 4 | 62% | 2.8 | 27.4% | 8.5% | 18.8% | 4.1% | 2.01 | 4.14 | +0.1 |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 8 | 5 | 22 | 95 | 28 | 9 | 4 | 62% | 2.8 | 29.5% | 9.5% | 20.0% | 4.2% | 2.01 | 4.13 | +0.1 |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 0 | 47 | 190 | 54 | 13 | 6 | 0% | 1.3 | 26.9% | 7.0% | 19.9% | 3.0% | 2.87 | 3.35 | +0.7 |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 0 | 47 | 190 | 54 | 13 | 6 | 0% | 1.3 | 28.4% | 6.8% | 21.6% | 3.2% | 2.87 | 3.29 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | New York Yankees | 47 | 0 | 46 | 192 | 53 | 16 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.6% | 8.3% | 19.3% | 1.0% | 1.55 | 2.40 | +1.2 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | NYY | 80 | 0 | 84 | 356 | 98 | 27 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.4% | 7.4% | 19.9% | 2.8% | 3.25 | 3.25 | +1.8 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | NYY | 80 | 0 | 84 | 355 | 97 | 26 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.4% | 7.4% | 19.9% | 2.9% | 3.31 | 3.31 | +1.7 |
| 2026 TOT | 28 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 131 | 548 | 151 | 43 | 12 | — | — | 27.5% | 7.8% | 19.7% | 2.2% | 2.65 | 2.95 | +3.7 |
| 2026 FULL | 28 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 131 | 552 | 151 | 43 | 12 | — | — | 27.3% | 7.7% | 19.6% | 2.2% | 2.69 | 2.99 | +3.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | NYY | 119 | 0 | 125 | 527 | 138 | 41 | 16 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.2% | 7.7% | 18.5% | 3.0% | 3.80 | 3.86 | +2.2 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | NYY | 112 | 0 | 117 | 495 | 125 | 40 | 16 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.2% | 8.0% | 17.2% | 3.2% | 3.99 | 4.10 | +1.8 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | NYY | 113 | 0 | 119 | 502 | 132 | 39 | 15 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.2% | 7.7% | 18.5% | 3.1% | 3.86 | 3.92 | +2.1 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | NYY | 106 | 0 | 111 | 469 | 118 | 37 | 15 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.2% | 8.0% | 17.2% | 3.3% | 4.06 | 4.17 | +1.6 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 378 | 0 | 412 | 1741 | 465 | 137 | 55 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.7% | 7.8% | 18.9% | 3.2% | 3.65 | 3.57 | +8.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 184 | 0 | 200 | 845 | 226 | 66 | 27 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.7% | 7.8% | 18.9% | 3.2% | 3.65 | 3.57 | +4.3 | ||
| Career | — | 166 | 55 | 388 | 1640 | 406 | 143 | 62 | 33% | 2.3 | 24.7% | 8.7% | 16.0% | 3.8% | 3.51 | 4.19 | +5.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 86 | 28 | 200 | 846 | 209 | 74 | 32 | 33% | 2.3 | 24.7% | 8.7% | 16.0% | 3.8% | 3.51 | 4.19 | +2.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Brent Headrick (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.96 | 27.2% | 6.9% | 3.5% | — | 3.98 | 25.7% | 17.9% | 242 | +0.02 | — | — | — |
| Sean Doolittle L 2026 · 3.00 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.00 | 26.3% | 8.8% | 1.8% | .306 | 2.34 | 32.5% | 28.6% | 135 | -0.66 | 1.39 | 259 | 77 |
| Justin Wilson L 2026 · 3.10 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.10 | 25.9% | 6.0% | 2.6% | .333 | 3.39 | 29.7% | 16.8% | 152 | +0.29 | 2.48 | 420 | 74 |
| Hunter Cervenka L 2026 · 3.25 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.25 | 24.6% | 6.6% | 2.5% | .268 | 3.20 | 26.6% | 13.5% | 55 | -0.05 | 3.20 | 194 | 73 |
| Marc Rzepczynski L 2027 · 2.83 FIP | 29 | SU | 2.83 | 25.9% | 6.3% | 2.0% | .356 | 3.76 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 101 | +0.93 | 2.79 | 181 | 73 |
| Buddy Boshers L 2026 · 2.81 FIP | 28 | SU | 2.81 | 24.3% | 6.8% | 1.6% | .288 | 3.79 | 22.5% | 14.2% | 161 | +0.98 | 2.81 | 223 | 72 |
| Nick Mondak L 2024 · 2.85 FIP | 26 | SU | 2.85 | 30.9% | 6.4% | 2.8% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.85 | 153 | 72 |
| Antonio Bastardo L 2027 · 3.04 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.04 | 26.8% | 10.0% | 1.7% | .238 | 5.18 | 22.6% | 11.3% | 88 | +2.14 | 3.04 | 145 | 70 |
| Boone Logan L 2028 · 2.85 FIP | 30 | SU | 2.85 | 26.2% | 9.5% | 1.4% | .352 | 3.01 | 29.7% | 20.6% | 78 | +0.16 | 2.44 | 113 | 70 |
| Josh Smoker L 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.20 | 25.5% | 9.4% | 3.8% | .329 | 4.44 | 20.2% | 11.3% | 59 | +0.24 | 2.66 | 230 | 69 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.84 | 21.1% | 7.3% | 2.9% | .267 | 3.21 | 23.3% | 15.2% | 73 | -0.63 | 2.44 | 124 | 69 |
| Yuki Matsui L 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.80 | 26.8% | 8.9% | 3.4% | .242 | 4.68 | 22.9% | 11.7% | 109 | +0.88 | 3.80 | 172 | 69 |
| Kevin Chapman L 2026 · 3.31 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.31 | 23.2% | 9.5% | 1.8% | .348 | 4.21 | 19.2% | 8.0% | 39 | +0.90 | 3.04 | 153 | 69 |
| Travis Wood L 2026 · 3.16 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.16 | 28.2% | 8.1% | 2.6% | .293 | 5.17 | 16.4% | 6.7% | 155 | +2.01 | 3.16 | 256 | 69 |
| Daniel Stumpf L 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.63 | 25.2% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.84 | 238 | 69 |
| Ryan O'Rourke L 2026 · 3.06 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.06 | 23.4% | 6.7% | 2.0% | .284 | 4.13 | 22.1% | 7.8% | 56 | +1.07 | 3.06 | 145 | 68 |
| Mike Dunn L 2028 · 3.76 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.76 | 27.7% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .294 | 4.09 | 22.5% | 10.9% | 110 | +0.33 | 3.72 | 181 | 68 |
| Jake Diekman L 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.40 | 26.5% | 11.9% | 1.9% | .310 | 3.21 | 27.0% | 15.3% | 106 | -0.19 | 2.33 | 455 | 68 |
| Locke St. John L 2026 · 3.02 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.02 | 25.7% | 9.8% | 1.6% | .318 | 5.55 | 16.5% | 3.7% | 49 | +2.53 | 3.02 | 389 | 67 |
| Jeremy Wu-Yelland L 2024 · 2.81 FIP | 26 | SU | 2.81 | 30.0% | 8.9% | 2.1% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.81 | 146 | 67 |
| Giovanni Soto L 2024 · 3.96 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.96 | 25.6% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.26 | 128 | 67 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 124 | 26.2% | 7.5% | 1.24 | 3.92 |
| Luis Garcia ('23) | 3 | 113 | 25.5% | 7.7% | 1.19 | 3.63 |
| Danny Salazar ('17) | 3 | 142 | 28.1% | 9.0% | 1.12 | 3.79 |
| Kutter Crawford ('24) | 3 | 130 | 23.9% | 7.2% | 1.45 | 4.47 |
| Nate Karns ('17) | 3 | 96 | 24.2% | 9.3% | 1.22 | 4.24 |
| Tyler Skaggs ('19) | 4 | 85 | 22.9% | 8.2% | 1.09 | 4.24 |
| Triston McKenzie ('24) | 4 | 105 | 26.0% | 9.4% | 1.52 | 3.94 |