Brent Headrick — OGILVIE

Brent Headrick P New York Yankees

Age 28 LHP 6'6" / 235 lbs MLB Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.2 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION73 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 7281vR 89

ERA3.30

FIP3.27

K%28.6%

BB%6.8%

K-BB%21.8%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 80 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$24M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6565

CTRL5050

CMD6565

K†6065

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4594.2

Whiff%

p9032.2%

p9029.9%

xwOBA vs

p900.269

FB+1.7 (58%)

SI (9%)

SL-2.2 (30%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2023

Service 0.994 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	+0.2	$0.8M	+$0.7M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.4	$10M	+$10M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$7M	+$6M
2029	Arb-1	$2M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2030	Arb-2	$2M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$21M	+$18M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	15	63	286	88	35	5	94%	3.9	22.9%	14.0%	8.9%	2.6%	3.71	4.36	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	15	63	286	88	35	5	94%	3.9	30.8%	12.2%	18.5%	1.7%	3.71	3.00	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	23	108	439	136	25	18	92%	4.3	24.4%	6.4%	18.0%	5.2%	3.32	4.68	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	23	108	439	136	25	18	92%	4.3	31.0%	5.7%	25.3%	4.1%	3.32	3.44	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	12	101	438	113	36	18	36%	3.1	22.6%	7.6%	15.0%	4.3%	5.10	4.54	+0.0
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	12	101	438	113	36	18	36%	3.1	22.6%	7.6%	15.0%	4.3%	5.10	4.54	+0.0
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	12	101	438	113	36	18	36%	3.1	25.8%	8.2%	17.6%	4.1%	5.10	4.25	+0.4
2024	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	8	5	22	95	28	9	4	62%	2.8	25.8%	7.3%	18.5%	4.3%	2.01	4.20	+0.2
2024	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	8	5	22	95	28	9	4	62%	2.8	25.8%	7.3%	18.5%	4.3%	2.01	4.20	+0.2
2024	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	8	5	22	95	28	9	4	62%	2.8	29.5%	9.5%	20.0%	4.2%	2.01	4.13	+0.2
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	47	190	54	13	6	0%	1.3	26.3%	6.5%	19.8%	3.1%	2.87	3.38	+0.7
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	47	190	54	13	6	0%	1.3	26.3%	6.5%	19.8%	3.1%	2.87	3.38	+0.7
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	0	47	190	54	13	6	0%	1.3	28.4%	6.8%	21.6%	3.2%	2.87	3.29	+0.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			107	0	125	526	156	41	16	0%	1.2	29.7%	7.8%	21.9%	3.0%	3.10	3.25	+1.9
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	75	0	73	304	91	23	4	0%	1.0	29.9%	7.6%	22.4%	1.2%	1.96	2.21	+2.1
YTD	28	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	75	0	73	304	91	23	4	0%	1.0	29.9%	7.6%	22.4%	1.2%	1.96	2.21	+2.1
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	MLB RAW	NYY	75	0	73	304	91	23	4	0%	1.0	29.9%	7.6%	22.4%	1.3%	1.96	2.25	+2.0
SO FAR	28	MLB RAW	NYY	75	0	73	304	91	23	4	0%	1.0	29.9%	7.6%	22.4%	1.3%	1.96	2.25	+2.0
ROS	28	MLB MLE	NYY	6	0	6	27	8	2	1	0%	1.1	28.6%	6.8%	21.8%	3.1%	3.30	3.27	+0.1
ROS	28	MLB CTX	NYY	6	0	6	25	7	2	1	0%	1.0	28.6%	6.8%	21.8%	3.4%	3.42	3.39	+0.1
2026 TOT	28	MLB MLE	NYY	—	—	80	331	99	25	5	—	—	29.8%	7.5%	22.3%	1.5%	2.07	2.29	+2.5
FULL	28	MLB A+C	NYY	—	—	80	336	99	25	5	—	—	29.3%	7.4%	22.0%	1.5%	2.08	2.36	+2.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	NYY	119	0	125	527	146	37	15	0%	1.0	27.7%	7.0%	20.7%	2.8%	3.51	3.56	+1.5
2028	30	MLB MLE	NYY	112	0	117	495	134	36	15	0%	1.0	27.0%	7.3%	19.7%	3.0%	3.66	3.77	+1.1
2029	31	MLB MLE	NYY	104	0	109	462	121	35	15	0%	1.1	26.3%	7.7%	18.6%	3.2%	3.86	4.00	+0.7
2030	32	MLB MLE	NYY	96	0	101	427	109	34	15	0%	1.1	25.5%	8.1%	17.4%	3.5%	4.10	4.25	+0.4
2027	29	MLB CTX	NYY	113	0	119	502	139	35	15	0%	1.1	27.7%	7.0%	20.7%	3.0%	3.61	3.66	+1.4
2028	30	MLB CTX	NYY	106	0	111	469	127	34	15	0%	1.0	27.0%	7.3%	19.7%	3.2%	3.77	3.88	+1.0
2029	31	MLB CTX	NYY	99	0	104	439	115	34	15	0%	1.1	26.3%	7.7%	18.6%	3.4%	3.98	4.12	+0.7
2030	32	MLB CTX	NYY	91	0	96	405	103	33	15	0%	1.1	25.5%	8.1%	17.4%	3.7%	4.23	4.38	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		523	0	561	2368	648	179	77	0%	1.1	27.4%	7.5%	19.8%	3.2%	3.70	3.53	+6.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		186	0	200	844	231	64	27	0%	1.1	27.4%	7.5%	19.8%	3.2%	3.70	3.53	+2.4
Career	—	MLE		194	55	415	1752	437	144	63	28%	2.1	24.9%	8.2%	16.7%	3.6%	3.45	4.00	+5.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		94	27	200	845	211	69	30	28%	2.1	24.9%	8.2%	16.7%	3.6%	3.45	4.00	+1.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brent Headrick (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.90	26.6%	6.1%	3.4%	—	3.77	27.0%	19.7%	352	-0.13	—	—	—
Justin Wilson L 2016 · 3.04 FIP	28	SU	3.04	25.9%	6.0%	2.5%	.333	3.45	29.7%	16.8%	152	+0.41	2.49	420	78
Sean Doolittle L 2015 · 3.05 FIP	28	SU	3.05	26.3%	8.8%	1.9%	.306	2.38	32.5%	28.6%	135	-0.67	1.39	259	77
Marc Rzepczynski L 2015 · 2.73 FIP	29	SU	2.73	25.9%	6.3%	1.8%	.356	3.73	19.4%	7.9%	101	+1.00	2.73	181	75
Hunter Cervenka L 2018 · 3.08 FIP	28	SU	3.08	24.6%	6.6%	2.2%	.268	3.11	26.6%	13.5%	55	+0.03	3.08	194	75
Buddy Boshers L 2016 · 2.80 FIP	28	SU	2.80	24.3%	6.8%	1.6%	.288	3.81	22.5%	14.2%	161	+1.01	2.80	223	73
Boone Logan L 2015 · 2.96 FIP	30	SU	2.96	26.2%	9.5%	1.6%	.352	3.05	29.7%	20.6%	78	+0.09	2.58	113	71
Antonio Bastardo L 2015 · 3.10 FIP	29	SU	3.10	26.8%	10.0%	1.8%	.238	5.27	22.6%	11.3%	88	+2.17	3.10	145	71
Daniel Stumpf L 2019 · 3.56 FIP	28	SU	3.56	25.2%	8.8%	2.7%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	1.84	238	69
Alex Vesia L 2023 · 3.25 FIP	27	SU	3.25	30.2%	7.1%	3.3%	.338	3.20	32.5%	21.8%	177	-0.05	1.91	401	69
Josh Smoker L 2017 · 4.20 FIP	28	SU	4.20	25.5%	9.4%	3.8%	.329	4.35	20.2%	11.3%	59	+0.15	2.71	230	69
Ryan O'Rourke L 2016 · 3.05 FIP	28	SU	3.05	23.4%	6.7%	1.9%	.284	4.08	22.1%	7.8%	56	+1.03	3.05	145	68
Travis Wood L 2015 · 3.25 FIP	28	SW	3.25	28.2%	8.1%	2.7%	.293	5.07	16.4%	6.7%	155	+1.82	3.25	256	68
Adam Liberatore L 2015 · 3.64 FIP	28	SU	3.64	21.1%	7.3%	2.5%	.267	3.17	23.3%	15.2%	73	-0.47	2.38	124	68
Kevin Chapman L 2016 · 3.35 FIP	28	SU	3.35	23.2%	9.5%	1.8%	.348	4.08	19.2%	8.0%	39	+0.73	3.01	153	67
Xavier Cedeño L 2015 · 3.00 FIP	28	SU	3.00	24.9%	6.3%	2.2%	.286	2.52	25.2%	17.2%	96	-0.48	2.50	142	67
Jacob Latz L 2023 · 3.15 FIP	27	SU	3.15	27.1%	9.8%	2.0%	.366	3.36	24.6%	14.7%	209	+0.21	2.26	473	67
Mike Dunn L 2015 · 3.75 FIP	30	SU	3.75	27.7%	11.9%	2.7%	.294	4.21	22.5%	10.9%	110	+0.46	3.71	181	67
Jake Diekman L 2015 · 3.38 FIP	28	SU	3.38	26.5%	11.9%	1.8%	.310	3.25	27.0%	15.3%	106	-0.13	2.36	455	67
Robbie Ross Jr. L 2016 · 2.81 FIP	27	SU	2.81	23.5%	9.7%	0.9%	.287	5.28	16.1%	-11.9%	11	+2.47	2.81	159	66
Tony Cingrani L 2017 · 4.46 FIP	28	SU	4.46	29.5%	6.8%	5.5%	.294	1.68	37.9%	32.6%	23	-2.78	1.68	186	66

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.9	117	26.7%	7.2%	1.23	3.80
Luis Garcia ('23)	1.7	113	25.5%	7.7%	1.19	3.63
Mike Clevinger ('23)	3.9	113	24.8%	8.7%	1.07	3.45
Triston McKenzie ('24)	2.1	105	26.0%	9.4%	1.52	3.94
Alek Manoah ('24)	2.1	105	23.4%	9.0%	1.03	3.34
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01