Andrew Chafin — OGILVIE

Andrew Chafin P Louisville Bats

Age 36 LHP 6'2" / 235 lbs AAA peak 0.3 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 47 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 93101vR 109

ERA3.84

FIP3.98

K%25.8%

BB%11.5%

K-BB%14.3%

ROS IP47

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 47 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL3030

CMD5050

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1089.5

Whiff%

p6527.7%

p6625.2%

xwOBA vs

p730.290

FB+2.0 (61%)

SL+1.2 (39%)

SI (40%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	67	0	76	309	59	24	3	0%	1.1	19.0%	7.8%	11.1%	1.0%	2.72	3.03	+1.4
2015	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	67	0	76	309	59	24	3	0%	1.1	19.1%	7.8%	11.3%	1.0%	2.72	3.01	+1.4
2016	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	44	2	37	152	44	13	1	5%	0.8	28.6%	10.2%	18.4%	1.0%	4.62	2.53	+0.9
2016	26	MIX RAW	4 levels	44	2	37	152	44	13	1	5%	0.8	28.9%	8.6%	20.4%	0.7%	4.62	2.13	+1.1
2017	27	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	71	0	51	221	61	18	5	0%	0.7	27.6%	8.1%	19.5%	2.2%	3.51	3.03	+0.9
2017	27	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	71	0	51	221	61	18	5	0%	0.7	27.6%	8.1%	19.5%	2.3%	3.51	3.04	+0.9
2018	28	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	77	0	49	211	53	24	0	0%	0.6	25.1%	11.4%	13.7%	0.0%	3.10	2.42	+1.3
2018	28	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	77	0	49	211	53	24	0	0%	0.6	25.1%	11.4%	13.7%	0.0%	3.10	2.41	+1.3
2019	29	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	77	0	53	225	68	18	6	0%	0.7	30.2%	8.0%	22.2%	2.8%	3.76	3.11	+0.9
2019	29	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	77	0	53	225	68	18	6	0%	0.7	30.2%	8.0%	22.2%	2.7%	3.76	3.02	+1.0
2020	30	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	15	0	10	45	13	4	2	0%	0.6	28.9%	8.9%	20.0%	4.4%	6.52	4.23	+0.0
2020	30	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	15	0	10	45	13	4	2	0%	0.6	28.9%	8.9%	20.0%	4.4%	6.52	4.34	+0.0
2021	31	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	71	0	69	266	64	18	4	0%	1.0	24.1%	6.8%	17.3%	1.7%	1.83	2.83	+1.4
2021	31	MLB RAW	Oakland Athletics	71	0	69	266	64	18	4	0%	1.0	24.1%	6.8%	17.3%	1.5%	1.83	2.78	+1.5
2022	32	MIX MLE	3 levels	66	1	59	249	69	19	5	2%	0.9	27.6%	7.8%	19.8%	2.1%	2.73	2.94	+1.1
2022	32	MIX RAW	3 levels	66	1	59	249	69	19	5	2%	0.9	27.7%	7.6%	20.1%	2.0%	2.73	2.83	+1.2
2023	33	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	63	0	51	224	63	28	6	0%	0.8	28.1%	12.5%	15.6%	2.6%	4.73	3.71	+0.5
2023	33	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	63	0	51	224	63	28	6	0%	0.8	28.1%	12.5%	15.6%	2.6%	4.73	3.71	+0.5
2023	33	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	63	0	51	224	63	28	6	0%	0.8	28.1%	12.5%	15.6%	2.7%	4.73	3.80	+0.5
2024	34	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	62	0	56	246	70	27	5	0%	0.9	28.5%	11.0%	17.5%	1.9%	3.51	3.13	+1.0
2024	34	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	62	0	56	246	70	27	5	0%	0.9	28.5%	11.0%	17.5%	1.9%	3.51	3.13	+1.0
2024	34	MLB RAW	Texas Rangers	62	0	56	246	70	27	5	0%	0.9	28.5%	11.0%	17.5%	2.0%	3.51	3.21	+0.9
2025	35	MIX MLE	2 levels	55	0	46	197	53	23	2	0%	0.8	25.4%	11.5%	14.0%	1.0%	2.33	2.95	+0.9
2025	35	MIX MLE	2 levels	55	0	46	197	53	23	2	0%	0.8	25.4%	11.5%	14.0%	1.0%	2.33	2.95	+0.9
2025	35	MIX RAW	2 levels	55	0	46	197	53	23	2	0%	0.8	26.9%	11.7%	15.2%	1.0%	2.33	2.86	+0.9
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			640	0	528	2228	581	209	39	0%	0.8	26.1%	9.4%	16.7%	1.8%	3.34	3.05	+9.5
▸ 2026 season
YTD	36	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	10	0	9	37	8	6	1	0%	0.9	—	—	—	—	0.96	—	—
YTD	36	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	10	0	9	37	8	6	1	0%	0.9	—	—	—	—	0.96	—	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	36	AAA RAW	CIN	10	0	9	37	8	6	1	0%	0.9	21.6%	16.2%	5.4%	2.7%	0.96	4.81	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	37	MLB MLE	CIN	39	0	41	173	43	21	5	0%	1.1	24.7%	12.1%	12.6%	2.6%	4.16	4.38	+0.1
2027	37	MLB CTX	CIN	39	0	41	173	43	21	5	0%	1.1	24.7%	12.1%	12.6%	2.6%	4.16	4.38	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		679	0	569	2401	624	230	44	0%	0.8	26.0%	9.6%	16.4%	1.8%	3.40	3.12	+9.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		239	0	200	844	219	81	15	0%	0.8	26.0%	9.6%	16.4%	1.8%	3.40	3.12	+3.4
Career	—	MLE		678	3	567	2382	621	225	41	0%	0.8	26.1%	9.4%	16.6%	1.7%	3.20	3.04	+9.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		239	1	200	840	219	79	14	0%	0.8	26.1%	9.4%	16.6%	1.7%	3.20	3.04	+3.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Andrew Chafin (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.98	25.8%	11.5%	2.2%	—	4.38	24.7%	12.6%	41	+0.40	—	—	—
Brooks Raley L 2023 · 3.03 FIP	35	SU	3.03	25.8%	9.3%	1.7%	.268	2.93	24.2%	16.9%	77	-0.10	1.74	255	82
Jerry Blevins L 2019 · 4.09 FIP	35	SU	4.09	26.2%	9.9%	3.5%	.235	—	—	—	—	—	2.71	166	80
Tony Sipp L 2019 · 3.28 FIP	36	SU	3.28	19.6%	9.8%	1.1%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.22	195	75
Wilfredo Ledezma L 2017 · 3.35 FIP	36	SU	3.35	26.7%	8.3%	2.7%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	2.58	109	69
Neal Cotts L 2016 · 4.37 FIP	36	SU	4.37	18.0%	6.8%	3.5%	.290	3.21	25.5%	17.5%	48	-1.16	3.21	156	67
Jorge De La Rosa L 2017 · 4.09 FIP	36	SU	4.09	20.5%	7.8%	3.2%	.260	4.07	19.3%	9.8%	56	-0.02	3.86	405	66
Heriberto Ruelas L 2017 · 3.42 FIP	35	SU	3.42	17.2%	6.7%	1.7%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	2.95	117	65
Fernando Abad L 2022 · 4.13 FIP	36	SU	4.13	15.6%	7.0%	2.7%	.290	4.37	21.1%	17.1%	38	+0.24	2.37	306	64
Craig Breslow L 2017 · 4.22 FIP	36	SU	4.22	14.5%	7.5%	2.5%	.308	5.13	17.8%	2.7%	19	+0.91	4.22	159	63
Brandon Mann L 2018 · 3.59 FIP	34	SU	3.59	17.8%	11.4%	1.0%	.232	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	190	61
Matt Albers R 2019 · 4.13 FIP	36	SU	4.13	22.1%	10.1%	2.9%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.15	244	38
Santiago Casilla R 2016 · 3.69 FIP	36	SU	3.69	27.0%	7.1%	3.6%	.278	4.13	19.8%	8.7%	103	+0.44	3.50	219	37
Fernando Rodney R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	38	SU	4.37	20.9%	9.4%	3.4%	.272	3.37	26.2%	15.2%	185	-1.00	2.69	295	37
Joaquín Benoit R 2015 · 3.58 FIP	38	SU	3.58	24.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.179	4.11	23.5%	12.9%	98	+0.53	3.58	164	36
Peter Moylan R 2015 · 3.11 FIP	36	SU	3.11	18.4%	8.2%	0.9%	.259	3.84	18.2%	9.1%	145	+0.73	3.11	174	36
Blaine Boyer R 2017 · 3.24 FIP	36	SU	3.24	18.0%	7.6%	1.3%	.341	7.38	8.3%	-0.9%	22	+4.14	3.24	209	36
Manny Acosta R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	35	SU	4.19	18.1%	9.1%	2.7%	.273	3.08	23.2%	9.9%	44	-1.11	3.08	102	35
Jim Johnson R 2018 · 4.48 FIP	35	SU	4.48	16.8%	7.8%	3.3%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	2.56	251	35
Blake Parker R 2021 · 3.86 FIP	36	SU	3.86	20.0%	7.6%	2.7%	.295	5.74	26.0%	14.0%	27	+1.88	2.52	339	35
Josh Lueke R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	34	SU	4.11	20.4%	6.4%	3.5%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	107	35

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	44	25.3%	11.8%	0.94	3.99
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Ryan Buchter ('19)	1.1	53	26.7%	10.8%	1.10	2.87
Cory Gearrin ('19)	1.1	57	21.5%	9.8%	0.79	3.42
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68