Andrew Chafin
P
Louisville Bats
Age 36
LHP
6'2" / 235 lbs
AAA
peak 0.3 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION9 act + 47 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 92101vR 111
ERA3.86
FIP4.01
K%25.9%
BB%11.6%
K-BB%14.4%
ROS IP47
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 56 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1089.5
Whiff%
p6527.7%
K%
p6625.2%
xwOBA vs
p730.290
FB+2.0 (61%)
SL+1.2 (39%)
SI (40%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 67 | 0 | 76 | 309 | 59 | 24 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.0% | 7.8% | 11.1% | 0.9% | 2.72 | 3.01 | +1.7 |
| 2015 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 67 | 0 | 76 | 309 | 59 | 24 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 11.3% | 1.0% | 2.72 | 3.01 | +1.7 |
| 2016 | 26 | MIX | 4 levels | 44 | 2 | 37 | 152 | 44 | 13 | 1 | 5% | 0.8 | 28.6% | 10.2% | 18.4% | 1.0% | 4.62 | 2.52 | +0.9 |
| 2016 | 26 | MIX | 4 levels | 44 | 2 | 37 | 152 | 44 | 13 | 1 | 5% | 0.8 | 28.9% | 8.6% | 20.4% | 0.7% | 4.62 | 2.13 | +1.0 |
| 2017 | 27 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 71 | 0 | 51 | 221 | 61 | 18 | 5 | 0% | 0.7 | 27.6% | 8.1% | 19.5% | 2.2% | 3.51 | 2.99 | +0.9 |
| 2017 | 27 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 71 | 0 | 51 | 221 | 61 | 18 | 5 | 0% | 0.7 | 27.6% | 8.1% | 19.5% | 2.3% | 3.51 | 3.04 | +0.9 |
| 2018 | 28 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 77 | 0 | 49 | 211 | 53 | 24 | 0 | 0% | 0.6 | 25.1% | 11.4% | 13.7% | 0.0% | 3.10 | 2.42 | +1.2 |
| 2018 | 28 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 77 | 0 | 49 | 211 | 53 | 24 | 0 | 0% | 0.6 | 25.1% | 11.4% | 13.7% | 0.0% | 3.10 | 2.41 | +1.2 |
| 2019 | 29 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 77 | 0 | 53 | 225 | 68 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 0.7 | 30.2% | 8.0% | 22.2% | 2.6% | 3.76 | 2.96 | +1.0 |
| 2019 | 29 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 77 | 0 | 53 | 225 | 68 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 0.7 | 30.2% | 8.0% | 22.2% | 2.7% | 3.76 | 3.02 | +0.9 |
| 2020 | 30 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 15 | 0 | 10 | 45 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 0% | 0.6 | 28.9% | 8.9% | 20.0% | 4.4% | 6.52 | 4.23 | +0.0 |
| 2020 | 30 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 15 | 0 | 10 | 45 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 0% | 0.6 | 28.9% | 8.9% | 20.0% | 4.4% | 6.52 | 4.34 | +0.0 |
| 2021 | 31 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 71 | 0 | 69 | 266 | 64 | 18 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.1% | 6.8% | 17.3% | 1.6% | 1.83 | 2.79 | +1.6 |
| 2021 | 31 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 71 | 0 | 69 | 266 | 64 | 18 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.1% | 6.8% | 17.3% | 1.5% | 1.83 | 2.78 | +1.6 |
| 2022 | 32 | MIX | 3 levels | 66 | 1 | 59 | 249 | 69 | 19 | 5 | 2% | 0.9 | 27.6% | 7.8% | 19.8% | 2.2% | 2.73 | 3.00 | +1.1 |
| 2022 | 32 | MIX | 3 levels | 66 | 1 | 59 | 249 | 69 | 19 | 5 | 2% | 0.9 | 27.7% | 7.6% | 20.1% | 2.0% | 2.73 | 2.83 | +1.2 |
| 2023 | 33 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 63 | 0 | 51 | 224 | 63 | 28 | 6 | 0% | 0.8 | 28.1% | 12.5% | 15.6% | 2.8% | 4.73 | 3.84 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 33 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 63 | 0 | 51 | 224 | 63 | 28 | 6 | 0% | 0.8 | 28.1% | 12.5% | 15.6% | 2.7% | 4.73 | 3.80 | +0.4 |
| 2024 | 34 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 62 | 0 | 56 | 246 | 70 | 27 | 5 | 0% | 0.9 | 28.5% | 11.0% | 17.5% | 2.0% | 3.51 | 3.18 | +0.9 |
| 2024 | 34 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 62 | 0 | 56 | 246 | 70 | 27 | 5 | 0% | 0.9 | 28.5% | 11.0% | 17.5% | 2.0% | 3.51 | 3.21 | +0.9 |
| 2025 | 35 | MIX | 2 levels | 55 | 0 | 46 | 197 | 53 | 23 | 2 | 0% | 0.8 | 25.9% | 11.8% | 14.1% | 1.1% | 2.33 | 2.98 | +0.8 |
| 2025 | 35 | MIX | 2 levels | 55 | 0 | 46 | 197 | 53 | 23 | 2 | 0% | 0.8 | 26.9% | 11.7% | 15.2% | 1.0% | 2.33 | 2.86 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 36 | AAA | Louisville Bats | 10 | 0 | 9 | 37 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 0% | 0.9 | — | — | — | — | 0.96 | — | — |
| ROS | 36 | MLB | CIN | 45 | 0 | 47 | 198 | 51 | 23 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.9% | 11.6% | 14.4% | 2.3% | 3.86 | 4.01 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 36 | MLB | CIN | 5 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.9% | 11.6% | 14.4% | 2.3% | 3.86 | 4.01 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 36 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 56 | 235 | 59 | 29 | 6 | — | — | 25.3% | 12.3% | 13.0% | 2.3% | 3.38 | 3.35 | +0.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 36 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 5 | 20 | 5 | 2 | 0 | — | — | 25.9% | 11.6% | 14.4% | 2.3% | 3.86 | 3.63 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 37 | MLB | CIN | 39 | 0 | 41 | 173 | 43 | 21 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.9% | 12.2% | 12.7% | 2.7% | 4.19 | 4.41 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 38 | MLB | CIN | 34 | 0 | 35 | 149 | 35 | 19 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.7% | 12.9% | 10.8% | 3.1% | 4.58 | 4.84 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 39 | MLB | CIN | 29 | 0 | 30 | 128 | 29 | 17 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.6% | 13.6% | 8.9% | 3.6% | 5.00 | 5.27 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 37 | MLB | CIN | 39 | 0 | 41 | 173 | 43 | 21 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.9% | 12.2% | 12.7% | 2.7% | 4.19 | 4.41 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 38 | MLB | CIN | 33 | 0 | 35 | 148 | 35 | 19 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.7% | 12.9% | 10.8% | 3.1% | 4.58 | 4.84 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 39 | MLB | CIN | 29 | 0 | 30 | 127 | 29 | 17 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.6% | 13.6% | 8.9% | 3.6% | 5.00 | 5.27 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 746 | 0 | 639 | 2698 | 693 | 269 | 53 | 0% | 0.9 | 25.7% | 10.0% | 15.7% | 2.0% | 3.55 | 3.28 | +15.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 233 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 217 | 84 | 17 | 0% | 0.9 | 25.7% | 10.0% | 15.7% | 2.0% | 3.55 | 3.28 | +5.0 | ||
| Career | — | 678 | 3 | 567 | 2382 | 622 | 225 | 41 | 0% | 0.8 | 26.1% | 9.5% | 16.6% | 1.7% | 3.20 | 3.04 | +15.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 239 | 1 | 200 | 840 | 219 | 79 | 14 | 0% | 0.8 | 26.1% | 9.5% | 16.6% | 1.7% | 3.20 | 3.04 | +5.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Andrew Chafin (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.01 | 25.9% | 11.6% | 2.3% | — | 4.80 | 23.8% | 11.0% | 107 | +0.79 | — | — | — |
| Brooks Raley L 2025 · 3.03 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.03 | 25.8% | 9.3% | 1.7% | .268 | 2.36 | 24.7% | 17.5% | 61 | -0.67 | 1.74 | 238 | 77 |
| Jerry Blevins L 2025 · 4.09 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.09 | 26.2% | 9.9% | 3.5% | .235 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.72 | 166 | 75 |
| Tony Sipp L 2026 · 3.28 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.28 | 19.6% | 9.8% | 1.1% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.18 | 195 | 71 |
| Wilfredo Ledezma L 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.47 | 26.7% | 8.3% | 2.9% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.56 | 109 | 68 |
| Jorge De La Rosa L 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.03 | 20.5% | 7.8% | 3.1% | .260 | 3.99 | 19.3% | 9.8% | 56 | -0.04 | 3.68 | 405 | 66 |
| Heriberto Ruelas L 2025 · 3.56 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.56 | 17.2% | 6.7% | 1.9% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.05 | 117 | 64 |
| Fernando Abad L 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.97 | 15.6% | 7.0% | 2.4% | .290 | 4.65 | 22.4% | 17.7% | 38 | +0.68 | 2.35 | 306 | 63 |
| Neal Cotts L 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.83 | 18.0% | 6.8% | 4.4% | .290 | 3.24 | 25.5% | 17.5% | 48 | -1.59 | 3.24 | 156 | 62 |
| Craig Breslow L 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.22 | 14.5% | 7.5% | 2.5% | .308 | 5.02 | 17.8% | 2.7% | 19 | +0.80 | 4.22 | 159 | 60 |
| Brandon Mann L 2024 · 3.60 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.60 | 17.8% | 11.4% | 1.0% | .232 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.60 | 190 | 60 |
| Fernando Rodney R 2028 · 4.26 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.26 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.2% | .272 | 3.34 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 185 | -0.92 | 2.67 | 295 | 37 |
| Matt Albers R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.28 | 22.1% | 10.1% | 3.2% | .269 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.15 | 244 | 36 |
| Joaquín Benoit R 2028 · 3.73 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.73 | 24.8% | 8.7% | 3.0% | .179 | 4.04 | 23.5% | 12.9% | 98 | +0.31 | 3.72 | 164 | 36 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.70 | 27.0% | 7.1% | 3.6% | .278 | 4.06 | 19.8% | 8.7% | 103 | +0.36 | 3.51 | 219 | 36 |
| Peter Moylan R 2026 · 3.10 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.10 | 18.4% | 8.2% | 0.9% | .259 | 3.82 | 18.2% | 9.1% | 145 | +0.72 | 3.10 | 174 | 36 |
| Manny Acosta R 2025 · 3.99 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.99 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .273 | 3.04 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -0.95 | 3.04 | 102 | 35 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2024 · 4.00 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.00 | 18.1% | 12.9% | 1.4% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.56 | 147 | 34 |
| Blaine Boyer R 2026 · 3.21 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.21 | 18.0% | 7.6% | 1.2% | .341 | 7.33 | 8.3% | -0.9% | 22 | +4.12 | 3.21 | 209 | 34 |
| Jean Machi R 2025 · 3.92 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.92 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 2.8% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.92 | 186 | 33 |
| Blake Parker R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.86 | 20.0% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .295 | 5.60 | 26.0% | 14.0% | 27 | +1.74 | 2.61 | 339 | 33 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 38 | 24.5% | 12.4% | 1.10 | 4.34 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Keegan Thompson ('24) | 4 | 57 | 23.0% | 11.3% | 1.19 | 3.64 |