Andrew Chafin
P
Louisville Bats
+0.3
WAR
Age 36
LHP
6'2" / 235 lbs
AAA
peak 0.3 · 2026
ERA3.82
FIP3.90
xFIP3.97
SIERA4.11
K%26.1%
BB%11.1%
K-BB%15.0%
IP31
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
STUF6060
CTRL3030
CMD5050
K†6060
FB Velo
p1089.5
Whiff%
p6527.7%
K%
p6625.2%
xwOBA vs
p730.290
FB+2.0 (61%)
SL+1.2 (39%)
SI (40%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 25 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 67 | 0 | 76 | 309 | 59 | 24 | 3 | 19.0% | 7.8% | 1.1% | 2.72 | 3.08 | +1.7 |
| 2016 | 26 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 44 | 2 | 37 | 152 | 44 | 13 | 1 | 28.6% | 10.2% | 0.9% | 4.62 | 2.49 | +1.0 |
| 2017 | 27 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 71 | 0 | 51 | 221 | 61 | 18 | 5 | 27.6% | 8.1% | 2.2% | 3.51 | 2.99 | +1.1 |
| 2018 | 28 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 77 | 0 | 49 | 211 | 53 | 24 | 0 | 25.1% | 11.4% | 0.0% | 3.10 | 2.42 | +1.4 |
| 2019 | 29 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 77 | 0 | 53 | 225 | 68 | 18 | 6 | 30.2% | 8.0% | 2.8% | 3.76 | 3.08 | +1.1 |
| 2020 | 30 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 15 | 0 | 10 | 45 | 13 | 4 | 2 | — | — | — | 6.52 | — | — |
| 2021 | 31 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 71 | 0 | 69 | 266 | 64 | 18 | 4 | 24.1% | 6.8% | 1.6% | 1.83 | 2.81 | +1.7 |
| 2022 | 32 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 66 | 1 | 59 | 249 | 69 | 19 | 5 | 27.6% | 7.8% | 2.2% | 2.73 | 2.96 | +1.3 |
| 2023 | 33 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 63 | 0 | 51 | 224 | 63 | 28 | 6 | 28.1% | 12.5% | 2.6% | 4.73 | 3.73 | +0.7 |
| 2024 | 34 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 62 | 0 | 56 | 246 | 70 | 27 | 5 | 28.5% | 11.0% | 2.0% | 3.51 | 3.16 | +1.1 |
| 2025 | 35 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | 55 | 0 | 46 | 197 | 53 | 23 | 2 | 25.9% | 11.8% | 1.1% | 2.33 | 2.99 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 36 | AAA | Louisville Bats | 6 | 0 | 5 | 23 | 6 | 6 | 1 | — | — | — | 1.80 | — | — |
| ROS | 36 | MLB | CIN | 31 | — | 31 | 130 | 31 | 14 | 3 | 24.2% | 11.1% | 2.3% | 3.77 | 4.08 | +0.3 |
| 2026 Total | 36 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 36 | 153 | 37 | 20 | 4 | 24.5% | 13.3% | 2.6% | 3.49 | 3.51 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 37 | MLB | CIN | 28 | — | 28 | 120 | 28 | 14 | 3 | 23.4% | 11.3% | 2.4% | 4.06 | 4.26 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 674 | 3 | 563 | 2368 | 620 | 225 | 41 | 26.2% | 9.5% | 1.7% | 3.23 | 3.05 | +14.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 239 | 1 | 200 | 841 | 220 | 80 | 15 | 26.2% | 9.5% | 1.7% | 3.23 | 3.05 | +5.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Andrew Chafin (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.08 | 24.2% | 11.1% | 2.3% | — | 4.26 | 23.4% | 12.1% | 28 | +0.18 | — | — | — |
| Jerry Blevins L 2025 · 3.98 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.98 | 26.2% | 9.9% | 3.4% | .235 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.66 | 166 | 75 |
| Brooks Raley L 2025 · 3.02 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.02 | 25.8% | 9.3% | 1.7% | .268 | 1.74 | 25.3% | 19.2% | 26 | -1.28 | 1.74 | 203 | 74 |
| Tony Sipp L 2026 · 3.20 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.20 | 19.6% | 9.8% | 0.9% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.19 | 195 | 74 |
| Heriberto Ruelas L 2025 · 3.42 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.42 | 17.2% | 6.7% | 1.7% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.97 | 117 | 68 |
| Neal Cotts L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.40 | 18.0% | 6.8% | 3.6% | .290 | 3.21 | 25.5% | 17.5% | 48 | -1.19 | 3.21 | 156 | 68 |
| Fernando Abad L 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.19 | 15.6% | 7.0% | 2.8% | .290 | 4.32 | 22.4% | 17.7% | 38 | +0.13 | 2.38 | 306 | 68 |
| Wilfredo Ledezma L 2026 · 3.38 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.38 | 26.7% | 8.3% | 2.7% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.57 | 109 | 68 |
| Jorge De La Rosa L 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.03 | 20.5% | 7.8% | 3.1% | .260 | 4.12 | 19.3% | 9.8% | 56 | +0.09 | 3.99 | 405 | 66 |
| Craig Breslow L 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.34 | 14.5% | 7.5% | 2.7% | .308 | 5.15 | 17.8% | 2.7% | 19 | +0.81 | 4.28 | 159 | 66 |
| Scott Kazmir L 2027 · 4.57 FIP | 37 | SW | 4.57 | 19.2% | 8.8% | 3.6% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.70 | 395 | 64 |
| Brandon Mann L 2024 · 3.59 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.59 | 17.8% | 11.4% | 1.0% | .232 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.59 | 190 | 63 |
| Marlon Arias L 2024 · 4.86 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.86 | 19.8% | 11.2% | 3.7% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 154 | 62 |
| Phil Coke L 2024 · 3.04 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.04 | 18.0% | 6.7% | 1.1% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.04 | 101 | 60 |
| Jon Lester L 2026 · 4.99 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.99 | 15.8% | 6.4% | 4.4% | .272 | 5.26 | 14.5% | 6.5% | 141 | +0.27 | 2.69 | 1,144 | 55 |
| Francisley Bueno L 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.42 | 11.7% | 8.4% | 2.3% | .351 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.51 | 138 | 53 |
| Jorge Castillo L 2025 · 4.79 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.79 | 11.2% | 6.7% | 3.3% | .337 | 4.94 | 19.6% | 11.5% | 119 | +0.15 | 4.49 | 408 | 47 |
| Wandy Rodriguez L 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 36 | SP- | 3.85 | 19.4% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 101 | 44 |
| Jonathan Sánchez L 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 36 | SP- | 4.73 | 18.1% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.73 | 109 | 40 |
| Tsuyoshi Wada L 2024 · 3.59 FIP | 34 | SP- | 3.59 | 16.8% | 7.1% | 1.8% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.59 | 119 | 38 |
| Peter Moylan R 2026 · 3.11 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.11 | 18.4% | 8.2% | 0.9% | .259 | 3.86 | 18.2% | 9.1% | 145 | +0.75 | 3.11 | 174 | 37 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.