Andrew Chafin

P Louisville Bats

Age 37 LHP 6'2" / 235 lbs AAA peak 0.3 · 2027

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	34	MLBTEX	62	56	3.51	3.21	28.5%	11.0%	0.9
2025	35	MIX2 levels	55	46	2.33	2.86	26.9%	11.7%	0.9	K 25.7% · BB 11.5% · FIP 2.93
2026	36	AAACIN	10	9	0.96	4.71	21.6%	16.2%	—	K 21.6% · BB 16.2% · FIP 4.81
2027PROJ	37	MLBCIN	6	6	3.91	4.13	25.5%	11.2%	0.0
2028PROJ	38	MLBCIN	25	26	4.30	4.56	24.3%	11.9%	-0.0
2029PROJ	39	MLBCIN	10	11	4.72	5.00	23.2%	12.6%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.8 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

xwOBA vs73

K%66

FB Velo10

CompsHisanori Takahashi (age 37) · Heriberto Ruelas (age 35) · Brian Shouse (age 37)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 95104vR 112

ERA3.91

FIP4.13

K%25.5%

BB%11.2%

K-BB%14.3%

Proj IP55

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 55 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL3030

CMD5050

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1089.5

Whiff%

p6527.7%

p6625.2%

xwOBA vs

p730.290

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2014	24	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	3	3	14	60	10	7	0	100%	4.7	16.7%	11.7%	5.0%	0.0%	3.86	3.17	+0.4
2014	24	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	3	3	14	60	10	7	0	100%	4.7	16.7%	11.7%	5.0%	0.0%	3.86	3.17	+0.4
2015	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	67	0	76	309	59	24	3	0%	1.1	19.0%	7.8%	11.1%	1.0%	2.72	3.03	+1.4
2015	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	67	0	76	309	59	24	3	0%	1.1	19.1%	7.8%	11.3%	1.0%	2.72	3.01	+1.4
2016	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	44	2	37	152	44	13	1	5%	0.8	28.6%	10.2%	18.4%	1.0%	4.62	2.53	+0.9
2016	26	MIX RAW	4 levels	44	2	37	152	44	13	1	5%	0.8	28.9%	8.6%	20.4%	0.7%	4.62	2.13	+1.1
2017	27	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	71	0	51	221	61	18	5	0%	0.7	27.6%	8.1%	19.5%	2.2%	3.51	3.03	+0.9
2017	27	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	71	0	51	221	61	18	5	0%	0.7	27.6%	8.1%	19.5%	2.3%	3.51	3.04	+0.9
2018	28	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	77	0	49	211	53	24	0	0%	0.6	25.1%	11.4%	13.7%	0.0%	3.10	2.42	+1.3
2018	28	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	77	0	49	211	53	24	0	0%	0.6	25.1%	11.4%	13.7%	0.0%	3.10	2.41	+1.3
2019	29	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	77	0	53	225	68	18	6	0%	0.7	30.2%	8.0%	22.2%	2.8%	3.76	3.11	+0.9
2019	29	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	77	0	53	225	68	18	6	0%	0.7	30.2%	8.0%	22.2%	2.7%	3.76	3.02	+1.0
2020	30	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	15	0	10	45	13	4	2	0%	0.6	28.9%	8.9%	20.0%	4.4%	6.52	4.23	+0.0
2020	30	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	15	0	10	45	13	4	2	0%	0.6	28.9%	8.9%	20.0%	4.4%	6.52	4.34	+0.0
2021	31	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	71	0	69	266	64	18	4	0%	1.0	24.1%	6.8%	17.3%	1.7%	1.83	2.83	+1.4
2021	31	MLB RAW	Oakland Athletics	71	0	69	266	64	18	4	0%	1.0	24.1%	6.8%	17.3%	1.5%	1.83	2.78	+1.5
2022	32	MIX MLE	3 levels	66	1	59	249	69	19	5	2%	0.9	27.6%	7.8%	19.8%	2.1%	2.73	2.94	+1.1
2022	32	MIX RAW	3 levels	66	1	59	249	69	19	5	2%	0.9	27.7%	7.6%	20.1%	2.0%	2.73	2.83	+1.2
2023	33	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	63	0	51	224	63	28	6	0%	0.8	28.1%	12.5%	15.6%	2.6%	4.73	3.71	+0.5
2023	33	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	63	0	51	224	63	28	6	0%	0.8	28.1%	12.5%	15.6%	2.7%	4.73	3.80	+0.5
2024	34	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	62	0	56	246	70	27	5	0%	0.9	28.5%	11.0%	17.5%	1.9%	3.51	3.13	+1.0
2024	34	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	62	0	56	246	70	27	5	0%	0.9	28.5%	11.0%	17.5%	1.9%	3.51	3.13	+1.0
2024	34	MLB RAW	Texas Rangers	62	0	56	246	70	27	5	0%	0.9	28.5%	11.0%	17.5%	2.0%	3.51	3.21	+0.9
2025	35	MIX MLE	2 levels	55	0	46	197	53	23	2	0%	0.8	25.7%	11.5%	14.2%	1.0%	2.33	2.93	+0.9
2025	35	MIX MLE	2 levels	55	0	46	197	53	23	2	0%	0.8	25.7%	11.5%	14.2%	1.0%	2.33	2.93	+0.9
2025	35	MIX RAW	2 levels	55	0	46	197	53	23	2	0%	0.8	26.9%	11.7%	15.2%	1.0%	2.33	2.86	+0.9
2026	36	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	10	0	9	37	8	6	1	0%	0.9	21.6%	16.2%	5.4%	2.7%	0.96	4.81	—
2026	36	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	10	0	9	37	8	6	1	0%	0.9	21.6%	16.2%	5.4%	2.7%	0.96	4.81	—
2026	36	AAA RAW	Louisville Bats	10	0	9	37	8	6	1	0%	0.9	21.6%	16.2%	5.4%	2.7%	0.96	4.71	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			643	3	542	2288	591	216	39	0%	0.8	25.8%	9.4%	16.4%	1.7%	3.35	3.05	+9.7
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	37	MLB	CIN	6	0	6	25	6	3	1	0%	1.0	25.5%	11.2%	14.3%	2.5%	3.91	4.13	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	38	MLB MLE	CIN	25	0	26	109	27	13	3	0%	1.0	24.3%	11.9%	12.4%	3.0%	4.30	4.56	-0.0
2029	39	MLB MLE	CIN	10	0	11	46	11	6	2	0%	1.1	23.2%	12.6%	10.6%	3.4%	4.72	5.00	-0.1
2028	38	MLB CTX	CIN	25	0	26	110	27	13	3	0%	1.0	24.3%	11.9%	12.4%	3.0%	4.30	4.56	-0.0
2029	39	MLB CTX	CIN	10	0	11	46	11	6	2	0%	1.1	23.2%	12.6%	10.6%	3.4%	4.72	5.00	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		678	3	579	2444	628	235	44	0%	0.9	25.7%	9.6%	16.1%	1.8%	3.42	3.13	+9.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		234	1	200	844	217	81	15	0%	0.9	25.7%	9.6%	16.1%	1.8%	3.42	3.13	+3.4
Career	—	MLE		681	6	581	2442	631	232	41	1%	0.9	25.9%	9.5%	16.4%	1.7%	3.22	3.04	+9.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		234	2	200	840	217	80	14	1%	0.9	25.9%	9.5%	16.4%	1.7%	3.22	3.04	+3.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAALouisville Bats · 9 IPFIP 4.81 → 5.01 (+0.20)K% 21.6% → 18.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.62%	—	×0.860	18.59%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.22%	—	×0.900	14.59%
HR / BF /BF	2.70%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.97%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.81 → 5.01, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 13 IPFIP 1.38 → 1.66 (+0.28)K% 31.5% → 27.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.48%	—	×0.860	27.07%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.41%	—	×0.900	6.67%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.872	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.38 → 1.66, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAAReno Aces · 9 IPFIP 1.58 → 1.82 (+0.24)K% 22.2% → 19.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.22%	—	×0.880	19.56%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.78%	—	×1.050	2.92%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.092	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 118).

Result: FIP 1.58 → 1.82, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Andrew Chafin (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.13	25.5%	11.2%	2.5%	—	4.69	24.0%	11.9%	37	+0.56	—	—	—
Hisanori Takahashi L 2012 · 4.04 FIP	37	SU	4.04	24.5%	6.1%	4.1%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	240	68
Heriberto Ruelas L 2017 · 3.42 FIP	35	SU	3.42	17.2%	6.7%	1.7%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	2.95	117	68
Brian Shouse L 2006 · 4.19 FIP	37	SU	4.19	13.2%	7.5%	2.3%	.269	3.37	15.3%	11.0%	127	-0.82	2.32	339	57
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	35
Juan Sandoval R 2017 · 3.42 FIP	36	SU	3.42	16.7%	7.2%	1.5%	.298	5.41	15.9%	8.7%	57	+1.99	3.24	225	35
Matt Bush R 2023 · 3.79 FIP	37	SU	3.79	26.2%	8.7%	3.3%	.225	—	—	—	—	—	2.87	249	34
Zack Segovia R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	36	SU	4.55	17.6%	13.6%	2.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.33	144	33
Scott Atchison R 2013 · 3.80 FIP	37	SU	3.80	14.4%	6.2%	2.1%	.273	3.60	16.7%	12.9%	92	-0.20	2.52	340	32
Pete Walker R 2006 · 4.45 FIP	37	SU	4.45	19.6%	8.0%	3.6%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	4.45	327	32
Erubiel Gonzalez R 2016 · 2.99 FIP	37	SU	2.99	16.4%	6.5%	0.8%	.333	3.51	13.3%	10.8%	35	+0.52	2.99	119	32
Rudy Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	36	SU	4.72	15.8%	7.1%	3.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	119	31
Salvador Valdez R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	36	SW	4.30	17.1%	8.2%	2.9%	.405	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	326	29
Francisco Del Rosario R 2017 · 4.15 FIP	36	SU	4.15	16.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.267	6.35	11.9%	-0.6%	77	+2.20	3.93	194	28
Chris Nichting R 2002 · 4.67 FIP	36	SU	4.67	16.6%	3.3%	4.6%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	103	27
Yoshihisa Hirano R 2020 · 5.02 FIP	36	SU	5.02	17.5%	12.7%	3.3%	.381	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	132	25
Hector Navarro R 2017 · 3.53 FIP	37	SU	3.53	11.5%	5.6%	1.3%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	2.30	126	25
Tony Pena Jr. R 2017 · 3.43 FIP	36	SU	3.43	10.9%	4.3%	1.3%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	128	19
Brian Sweeney R 2010 · 4.63 FIP	36	SU	4.63	9.5%	3.4%	3.5%	.226	—	—	—	—	—	3.03	108	18
Jonathan Castellanos R 2019 · 5.24 FIP	37	SW	5.24	11.0%	9.0%	3.5%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	394	8
Logan Duran R 2019 · 3.66 FIP	37	SP-	3.66	15.5%	8.9%	1.4%	.427	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	187	7

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.2	49	25.7%	10.4%	0.72	3.47
Grant Balfour ('15)	2.7	54	25.5%	11.2%	0.78	3.49
Adam Ottavino ('25)	3.7	62	27.2%	10.4%	0.87	3.48
Justin Wilson ('25)	2.8	56	25.9%	10.2%	0.82	3.59
Mike Fetters ('89-'04, 6 WAR*)	3.6	55	20.3%*	10.4%*	0.83*	3.70*
Paul Assenmacher ('86-'99, 12 WAR*)	4.3	61	27.8%*	8.3%*	0.98*	3.61*
Al Hrabosky ('70-'82, 10 WAR*)	3.6	72	26.7%*	10.1%*	0.98*	3.50*