Adam Ottavino
P
New York Yankees
+0.5
WAR
Age 40
RHP
6'5" / 246 lbs
MLB
peak 0.5 · 2026
ERA3.92
FIP4.03
xFIP8.59
SIERA10.04
K%25.7%
BB%9.2%
K-BB%16.4%
IP46
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2026
STUF5050
CTRL4545
CMD6060
K†6060
FB Velo
p3293.2
Whiff%
p5325.7%
K%
p8528.6%
xwOBA vs
p820.281
SL (33%)
SI (36%)
CT (7%)
FB (60%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 29 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 10 | 0 | 10 | 35 | 13 | 2 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2016 | 30 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 44 | 0 | 35 | 144 | 47 | 12 | 4 | 32.7% | 6.5% | 2.6% | 3.31 | 2.61 | +0.9 |
| 2017 | 31 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 63 | 0 | 53 | 243 | 63 | 37 | 8 | 25.9% | 15.2% | 2.9% | 5.06 | 4.43 | +0.3 |
| 2018 | 32 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 75 | 0 | 78 | 309 | 112 | 31 | 5 | 36.2% | 10.0% | 1.5% | 2.43 | 2.15 | +2.6 |
| 2019 | 33 | MLB | New York Yankees | 73 | 0 | 66 | 283 | 88 | 37 | 5 | 31.1% | 13.1% | 1.7% | 1.90 | 3.07 | +1.5 |
| 2020 | 34 | MLB | New York Yankees | 24 | 0 | 18 | 85 | 25 | 9 | 2 | 29.4% | 10.6% | 1.7% | 5.89 | 2.92 | +0.4 |
| 2021 | 35 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 69 | 0 | 62 | 276 | 71 | 33 | 5 | 25.7% | 12.0% | 1.8% | 4.21 | 3.46 | +1.1 |
| 2022 | 36 | MLB | New York Mets | 66 | 0 | 66 | 258 | 79 | 14 | 6 | 30.6% | 5.4% | 2.4% | 2.06 | 2.51 | +1.9 |
| 2023 | 37 | MLB | New York Mets | 66 | 0 | 62 | 261 | 62 | 26 | 7 | 23.8% | 10.0% | 2.7% | 3.21 | 3.81 | +0.8 |
| 2024 | 38 | MLB | New York Mets | 60 | 0 | 56 | 245 | 70 | 22 | 6 | 28.6% | 9.0% | 2.5% | 4.34 | 3.17 | +1.1 |
| 2025 | 39 | MLB | New York Yankees | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 40 | MLB | NYY | 46 | — | 46 | 193 | 49 | 18 | 5 | 25.3% | 9.2% | 2.8% | 3.79 | 4.05 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 41 | MLB | NYY | 42 | — | 42 | 177 | 43 | 17 | 5 | 24.4% | 9.5% | 2.9% | 4.06 | 4.23 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 553 | 0 | 508 | 2148 | 633 | 224 | 46 | 29.5% | 10.4% | 2.1% | 3.24 | 3.11 | +12.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 218 | 0 | 200 | 845 | 249 | 88 | 18 | 29.5% | 10.4% | 2.1% | 3.24 | 3.11 | +5.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Adam Ottavino (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.05 | 25.3% | 9.2% | 2.8% | — | 4.23 | 24.4% | 14.9% | 42 | +0.18 | — | — | — |
| Joaquín Benoit R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 40 | SW | 4.46 | 21.6% | 9.9% | 3.5% | .259 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.55 | 164 | 73 |
| Jose Contreras R 2029 · 3.54 FIP | 43 | SW | 3.54 | 20.2% | 8.3% | 2.0% | .263 | 2.98 | 20.5% | 13.4% | 57 | -0.56 | 2.98 | 111 | 71 |
| Manny Acosta R 2024 · 3.07 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.07 | 23.2% | 13.3% | 0.4% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.07 | 102 | 66 |
| Peter Moylan R 2025 · 4.94 FIP | 39 | SU | 4.94 | 17.8% | 11.6% | 3.4% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.11 | 174 | 59 |
| Gaudencio Aguirre R 2028 · 3.26 FIP | 42 | SU | 3.26 | 14.8% | 8.6% | 0.6% | .293 | 3.88 | 14.9% | 6.8% | 75 | +0.62 | 3.26 | 123 | 58 |
| Luis Ayala R 2025 · 3.97 FIP | 39 | SU | 3.97 | 15.9% | 11.7% | 1.3% | .340 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.01 | 119 | 56 |
| Erubiel Gonzalez R 2024 · 3.48 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.48 | 13.3% | 2.5% | 2.2% | .388 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.00 | 119 | 51 |
| Lorenzo Barcelo R 2024 · 3.38 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.38 | 12.8% | 1.1% | 2.2% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.18 | 199 | 45 |
| Ryan Vogelsong R 2025 · 4.88 FIP | 39 | SP- | 4.88 | 16.7% | 10.4% | 3.4% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.44 | 217 | 34 |
| Rich Hill L 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 40 | SU | 3.92 | 19.9% | 10.9% | 2.0% | .238 | 4.13 | 21.0% | 12.9% | 429 | +0.21 | 2.10 | 1,030 | 30 |
| Francisco Campos R 2028 · 4.76 FIP | 42 | SP- | 4.76 | 11.5% | 7.9% | 3.0% | .303 | 4.00 | 12.2% | 7.0% | 197 | -0.76 | 3.95 | 332 | 28 |
| Sergio Mitre R 2024 · 4.54 FIP | 38 | SP- | 4.54 | 11.8% | 6.5% | 2.9% | .355 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.54 | 156 | 24 |
| Juan Antonio Pena L 2027 · 4.55 FIP | 41 | SU | 4.55 | 13.7% | 14.1% | 1.5% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.17 | 149 | 22 |
| Tim Hudson R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 40 | SP- | 4.40 | 12.2% | 6.9% | 2.7% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.40 | 124 | 21 |
| Horacio Ramirez L 2025 · 4.64 FIP | 39 | SU | 4.64 | 5.7% | 6.0% | 2.3% | .233 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.35 | 199 | 18 |
| Walter Silva R 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 40 | SP- | 3.67 | 10.4% | 7.6% | 0.9% | .292 | 4.99 | 9.7% | 0.9% | 118 | +1.32 | 3.67 | 428 | 18 |
| Mauricio Lara L 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 40 | SP- | 4.93 | 12.3% | 6.8% | 3.7% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.59 | 444 | 7 |
| Yasutomo Kubo R 2024 · 3.94 FIP | 38 | SP | 3.94 | 20.4% | 4.7% | 3.6% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.94 | 152 | 0 |
| Pablo Ortega R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 40 | SP | 4.38 | 13.4% | 6.0% | 3.0% | .298 | 5.22 | 12.4% | 4.2% | 14 | +0.84 | 4.03 | 375 | 0 |
| Brad Penny R 2023 · 3.75 FIP | 37 | SP | 3.75 | 12.0% | 5.8% | 1.7% | .346 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.75 | 135 | 0 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.