Adam Ottavino
P
New York Yankees
Age 40
RHP
6'5" / 246 lbs
MLB
peak 0.4 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 56 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10091vR 81
ERA3.80
FIP3.94
K%26.5%
BB%9.1%
K-BB%17.3%
ROS IP56
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 56 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p3293.2
Whiff%
p5325.7%
K%
p8528.6%
xwOBA vs
p820.281
SL (33%)
SI (36%)
CT (7%)
FB (60%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 29 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 10 | 0 | 10 | 35 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 37.1% | 5.7% | 31.4% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.69 | +0.5 |
| 2015 | 29 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 10 | 0 | 10 | 35 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 37.1% | 5.7% | 31.4% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 1.16 | +0.4 |
| 2016 | 30 | MIX | 3 levels | 44 | 0 | 35 | 144 | 47 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 0.8 | 32.7% | 6.5% | 26.2% | 2.1% | 3.31 | 2.35 | +0.9 |
| 2016 | 30 | MIX | 3 levels | 44 | 0 | 35 | 144 | 47 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 0.8 | 32.6% | 8.3% | 24.3% | 2.8% | 3.31 | 2.93 | +0.7 |
| 2017 | 31 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 63 | 0 | 53 | 243 | 63 | 37 | 8 | 0% | 0.8 | 25.9% | 15.2% | 10.7% | 2.5% | 5.06 | 4.22 | +0.2 |
| 2017 | 31 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 63 | 0 | 53 | 243 | 63 | 37 | 8 | 0% | 0.8 | 25.9% | 15.2% | 10.7% | 3.3% | 5.06 | 4.77 | -0.1 |
| 2018 | 32 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 75 | 0 | 78 | 309 | 112 | 31 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 36.2% | 10.0% | 26.2% | 1.2% | 2.43 | 1.99 | +2.7 |
| 2018 | 32 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 75 | 0 | 78 | 309 | 112 | 31 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 36.2% | 10.0% | 26.2% | 1.6% | 2.43 | 2.25 | +2.4 |
| 2019 | 33 | MLB | New York Yankees | 73 | 0 | 66 | 283 | 88 | 37 | 5 | 0% | 0.9 | 31.1% | 13.1% | 18.0% | 1.6% | 1.90 | 3.03 | +1.3 |
| 2019 | 33 | MLB | New York Yankees | 73 | 0 | 66 | 283 | 88 | 37 | 5 | 0% | 0.9 | 31.1% | 13.1% | 18.0% | 1.8% | 1.90 | 3.10 | +1.2 |
| 2020 | 34 | MLB | New York Yankees | 24 | 0 | 18 | 85 | 25 | 9 | 2 | 0% | 0.8 | 29.4% | 10.6% | 18.8% | 2.2% | 5.89 | 3.16 | +0.3 |
| 2020 | 34 | MLB | New York Yankees | 24 | 0 | 18 | 85 | 25 | 9 | 2 | 0% | 0.8 | 29.4% | 10.6% | 18.8% | 2.4% | 5.89 | 3.26 | +0.3 |
| 2021 | 35 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 69 | 0 | 62 | 276 | 71 | 33 | 5 | 0% | 0.9 | 25.7% | 12.0% | 13.8% | 1.8% | 4.21 | 3.43 | +0.8 |
| 2021 | 35 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 69 | 0 | 62 | 276 | 71 | 33 | 5 | 0% | 0.9 | 25.7% | 12.0% | 13.8% | 1.8% | 4.21 | 3.45 | +0.8 |
| 2022 | 36 | MLB | New York Mets | 66 | 0 | 66 | 258 | 79 | 14 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 30.6% | 5.4% | 25.2% | 2.3% | 2.06 | 2.48 | +1.7 |
| 2022 | 36 | MLB | New York Mets | 66 | 0 | 66 | 258 | 79 | 14 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 30.6% | 5.4% | 25.2% | 2.3% | 2.06 | 2.52 | +1.7 |
| 2023 | 37 | MLB | New York Mets | 66 | 0 | 62 | 261 | 62 | 26 | 7 | 0% | 0.9 | 23.8% | 10.0% | 13.8% | 2.7% | 3.21 | 3.84 | +0.5 |
| 2023 | 37 | MLB | New York Mets | 66 | 0 | 62 | 261 | 62 | 26 | 7 | 0% | 0.9 | 23.8% | 10.0% | 13.8% | 2.7% | 3.21 | 3.83 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 38 | MLB | New York Mets | 60 | 0 | 56 | 245 | 70 | 22 | 6 | 0% | 0.9 | 28.6% | 9.0% | 19.6% | 2.5% | 4.34 | 3.18 | +0.9 |
| 2024 | 38 | MLB | New York Mets | 60 | 0 | 56 | 245 | 70 | 22 | 6 | 0% | 0.9 | 28.6% | 9.0% | 19.6% | 2.4% | 4.34 | 3.17 | +0.9 |
| 2025 | 39 | MLB | New York Yankees | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.6 | 33.3% | 44.4% | -11.1% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 5.91 | -0.0 |
| 2025 | 39 | MLB | New York Yankees | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.6 | 33.3% | 44.4% | -11.1% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 6.70 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 40 | MLB | NYY | 53 | 0 | 56 | 237 | 63 | 22 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.5% | 9.1% | 17.3% | 2.8% | 3.80 | 3.94 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 41 | MLB | NYY | 46 | 0 | 48 | 204 | 51 | 20 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.3% | 9.8% | 15.5% | 3.2% | 4.14 | 4.37 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 41 | MLB | NYY | 46 | 0 | 48 | 203 | 51 | 20 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.3% | 9.8% | 15.5% | 3.2% | 4.14 | 4.37 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 589 | 0 | 548 | 2315 | 672 | 242 | 54 | 0% | 0.9 | 29.1% | 10.5% | 18.6% | 2.3% | 3.29 | 3.24 | +13.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 215 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 245 | 88 | 20 | 0% | 0.9 | 29.1% | 10.5% | 18.6% | 2.3% | 3.29 | 3.24 | +5.0 | ||
| Career | — | 553 | 0 | 508 | 2148 | 633 | 224 | 44 | 0% | 0.9 | 29.5% | 10.4% | 19.0% | 2.0% | 3.24 | 3.05 | +14.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 218 | 0 | 200 | 845 | 249 | 88 | 17 | 0% | 0.9 | 29.5% | 10.4% | 19.0% | 2.0% | 3.24 | 3.05 | +5.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Adam Ottavino (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.94 | 26.5% | 9.1% | 2.8% | — | 4.37 | 25.3% | 15.5% | 48 | +0.43 | — | — | — |
| Joaquín Benoit R 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 40 | SU | 4.35 | 21.6% | 9.9% | 3.3% | .259 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.72 | 164 | 73 |
| Manny Acosta R 2024 · 3.04 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.04 | 23.2% | 13.3% | 0.4% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.04 | 102 | 65 |
| Peter Moylan R 2025 · 4.77 FIP | 39 | SU | 4.77 | 17.8% | 11.6% | 3.1% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 174 | 56 |
| Gaudencio Aguirre R 2028 · 3.31 FIP | 42 | SU | 3.31 | 14.8% | 8.6% | 0.7% | .293 | 3.98 | 14.9% | 6.8% | 75 | +0.67 | 3.31 | 123 | 55 |
| Luis Ayala R 2025 · 3.94 FIP | 39 | SU | 3.94 | 15.9% | 11.7% | 1.3% | .340 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.99 | 119 | 53 |
| Erubiel Gonzalez R 2024 · 3.66 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.66 | 13.3% | 2.5% | 2.5% | .388 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 119 | 49 |
| Ryan Vogelsong R 2025 · 4.67 FIP | 39 | SP- | 4.67 | 16.7% | 10.4% | 3.0% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.46 | 217 | 20 |
| Horacio Ramirez L 2025 · 4.62 FIP | 39 | SU | 4.62 | 5.7% | 6.0% | 2.2% | .233 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 199 | 15 |
| Juan Antonio Pena L 2027 · 4.46 FIP | 41 | SW | 4.46 | 13.7% | 14.1% | 1.3% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 149 | 12 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 52 | 25.9% | 9.4% | 1.16 | 3.96 |
| Colin Poche ('24) | 4 | 52 | 27.0% | 9.2% | 1.34 | 3.63 |
| Zach McAllister ('18) | 4 | 57 | 24.8% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 3.63 |
| Santiago Casilla ('18) | 4 | 52 | 23.5% | 9.6% | 0.96 | 3.49 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |