Chris Murphy
P
Chicago White Sox
Age 28
LHP
6'1" / 186 lbs
MLB
2026 ROS PROJECTION37 act + 45 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 103112vR 121
ERA4.19
FIP4.51
K%21.2%
BB%13.8%
K-BB%7.4%
ROS IP45
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 82 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p7596.3
Whiff%
p9032.1%
K%
p4521.4%
xwOBA vs
p580.304
CH+0.7 (4%)
SI (4%)
CU (23%)
FB-0.6 (36%)
SL-2.5 (36%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 20 | 101 | 424 | 128 | 36 | 21 | 95% | 4.8 | 23.7% | 9.6% | 14.1% | 7.8% | 4.62 | 6.61 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 20 | 101 | 424 | 128 | 36 | 21 | 95% | 4.8 | 30.2% | 8.5% | 21.7% | 5.0% | 4.62 | 4.33 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 28 | 152 | 647 | 149 | 72 | 14 | 93% | 5.1 | 19.3% | 11.9% | 7.4% | 2.7% | 4.03 | 4.44 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 28 | 152 | 647 | 149 | 72 | 14 | 93% | 5.1 | 23.0% | 11.1% | 11.9% | 2.2% | 4.03 | 3.76 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 9 | 100 | 464 | 110 | 48 | 12 | 26% | 2.9 | 22.1% | 10.7% | 11.5% | 2.7% | 5.65 | 4.07 | +1.6 |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 9 | 100 | 464 | 110 | 48 | 12 | 26% | 2.9 | 23.7% | 10.3% | 13.4% | 2.6% | 5.65 | 3.90 | +1.8 |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 4 levels | 41 | 5 | 62 | 264 | 59 | 35 | 5 | 12% | 1.5 | 20.7% | 13.7% | 7.0% | 2.1% | 3.03 | 4.26 | +0.2 |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 4 levels | 41 | 5 | 62 | 264 | 59 | 35 | 5 | 12% | 1.5 | 22.3% | 13.3% | 9.1% | 1.9% | 3.03 | 3.93 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 34 | 3 | 37 | 164 | 37 | 19 | 3 | 9% | 1.1 | 21.4% | 11.8% | 9.6% | 1.9% | 4.10 | 3.83 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | CWS | 43 | 0 | 45 | 191 | 40 | 26 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.2% | 13.8% | 7.4% | 2.6% | 4.19 | 4.51 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | CWS | 43 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 40 | 26 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.2% | 13.8% | 7.4% | 2.6% | 4.19 | 4.51 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 28 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 82 | 355 | 77 | 45 | 8 | — | — | 21.8% | 12.8% | 9.0% | 2.3% | 4.15 | 4.20 | +0.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 28 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 67 | 282 | 77 | 45 | 8 | — | — | 27.4% | 16.1% | 11.4% | 2.8% | 5.12 | 4.38 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | CWS | 61 | 0 | 64 | 269 | 55 | 38 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.6% | 14.1% | 6.5% | 2.8% | 4.88 | 5.07 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | CWS | 57 | 0 | 60 | 253 | 50 | 36 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.9% | 14.4% | 5.5% | 3.0% | 5.12 | 5.27 | -0.5 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | CWS | 58 | 0 | 61 | 258 | 53 | 36 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.6% | 14.1% | 6.5% | 2.8% | 4.88 | 5.07 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | CWS | 54 | 0 | 57 | 241 | 48 | 35 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.9% | 14.4% | 5.5% | 3.0% | 5.12 | 5.27 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 219 | 2 | 267 | 1145 | 241 | 145 | 30 | 1% | 1.2 | 21.0% | 12.7% | 8.4% | 2.7% | 4.56 | 4.39 | +3.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 164 | 1 | 200 | 859 | 181 | 109 | 22 | 1% | 1.2 | 21.0% | 12.7% | 8.4% | 2.7% | 4.56 | 4.39 | +2.4 | ||
| Career | — | 161 | 65 | 453 | 1963 | 417 | 223 | 72 | 40% | 2.8 | 21.3% | 11.4% | 9.9% | 3.6% | 4.39 | 4.74 | +3.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 71 | 29 | 200 | 866 | 184 | 98 | 32 | 40% | 2.8 | 21.3% | 11.4% | 9.9% | 3.6% | 4.39 | 4.74 | +1.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Chris Murphy (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.04 | 21.1% | 14.3% | 2.8% | — | 5.17 | 20.2% | 6.0% | 124 | +0.13 | — | — | — |
| Matt Whitehouse L 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.02 | 20.1% | 10.9% | 2.2% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.38 | 353 | 74 |
| Tommy Vail L 2024 · 5.18 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.18 | 19.7% | 16.4% | 3.0% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 151 | 70 |
| Brendan Nail L 2025 · 4.43 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.43 | 19.5% | 11.4% | 2.8% | .262 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.67 | 165 | 69 |
| Jack Dashwood L 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.80 | 17.8% | 10.5% | 3.4% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 309 | 69 |
| Juan Grullon L 2024 · 4.86 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.86 | 19.8% | 10.9% | 3.7% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.86 | 134 | 69 |
| Will Lamb L 2024 · 5.47 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.47 | 20.0% | 14.0% | 4.2% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 178 | 69 |
| Jason Blanchard L 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.60 | 19.9% | 12.4% | 2.9% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.44 | 171 | 68 |
| Ross Detwiler L 2027 · 5.34 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.34 | 14.2% | 12.2% | 3.5% | .356 | 5.01 | 14.1% | 5.9% | 242 | -0.33 | 3.47 | 512 | 68 |
| Jeremy Horst L 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.06 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 2.1% | .291 | 3.73 | 15.1% | 2.7% | 48 | -0.33 | 3.73 | 108 | 68 |
| Aaron Brown L 2025 · 3.88 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.88 | 22.9% | 13.5% | 1.8% | .317 | 4.79 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 129 | +0.91 | 3.88 | 269 | 68 |
| Chad Bell L 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.62 | 19.4% | 8.9% | 3.7% | .341 | 4.44 | 18.8% | 11.4% | 57 | -0.18 | 3.47 | 393 | 67 |
| Jimmy Reyes L 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.73 | 13.8% | 8.0% | 3.2% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.00 | 200 | 65 |
| Ashur Tolliver L 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.24 | 21.3% | 9.8% | 3.1% | .308 | 5.05 | 13.8% | -5.1% | 35 | +0.81 | 3.43 | 134 | 65 |
| Brian Holmes L 2024 · 6.01 FIP | 26 | SW | 6.01 | 15.5% | 11.7% | 5.0% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.42 | 205 | 65 |
| Hayden Deal L 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.28 | 15.7% | 11.4% | 1.9% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 420 | 65 |
| Trey Jeans L 2024 · 5.12 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.12 | 22.3% | 16.5% | 3.3% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.74 | 111 | 65 |
| Kit Scheetz L 2025 · 5.20 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.20 | 16.2% | 13.6% | 3.2% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.34 | 195 | 65 |
| Tyler Thomas L 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.90 | 18.9% | 15.1% | 2.7% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.75 | 279 | 65 |
| Jordan Harrison L 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.93 | 19.1% | 9.7% | 2.2% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.88 | 244 | 64 |
| Josh Osich L 2026 · 5.01 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.01 | 21.4% | 12.9% | 3.8% | .328 | 4.42 | 21.1% | 14.1% | 143 | -0.59 | 3.47 | 315 | 64 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 64 | 20.5% | 14.3% | 1.10 | 4.90 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |