Chris Murphy

P Chicago White Sox

Age 29 LHP 6'1" / 186 lbs MLB

Overview

MLBRP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	25	MIX2 levels	35	9	100	5.65	3.90	23.7%	10.3%	0.8	K 21.9% · BB 9.7% · FIP 3.99
2025	27	MIX4 levels	41	5	62	3.03	3.93	22.3%	13.3%	0.5	K 20.5% · BB 12.8% · FIP 4.20
2026	28	MIX2 levels	51	5	54	4.00	3.58	23.9%	10.5%	0.6	K 22.7% · BB 10.1% · FIP 3.63
2027PROJ	29	MLBCWS	30	0	32	4.50	4.73	22.3%	12.8%	-0.1
2028PROJ93% MLB	30	MLBCWS	35	0	37	4.76	4.94	21.6%	13.1%	-0.2
2029PROJ94% MLB	31	MLBCWS	29	0	30	5.01	5.17	20.9%	13.4%	-0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.9 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo75

xwOBA vs59

K%56

CompsJohn Rheinecker (age 28) · Matt Whitehouse (age 28) · Andrew Barbosa (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 98107vR 115

ERA4.50

FIP4.73

K%22.3%

BB%12.8%

K-BB%9.5%

Proj IP35

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 35 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL2525

CMD3535

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7596.3

Whiff%

p8130.1%

p5623.3%

xwOBA vs

p590.303

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	20	101	424	128	36	21	95%	4.8	23.7%	9.6%	14.1%	6.9%	4.62	6.09	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	20	101	424	128	36	21	95%	4.8	30.2%	8.5%	21.7%	5.0%	4.62	4.33	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	28	152	647	149	72	14	93%	5.1	19.3%	11.9%	7.4%	2.6%	4.03	4.39	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	28	152	647	149	72	14	93%	5.1	23.0%	11.1%	11.9%	2.2%	4.03	3.76	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	9	100	464	110	48	12	26%	2.9	21.9%	9.7%	12.2%	2.8%	5.65	3.99	+0.7
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	9	100	464	110	48	12	26%	2.9	23.7%	10.3%	13.4%	2.6%	5.65	3.90	+0.8
2025	27	MIX MLE	4 levels	41	5	62	264	59	35	5	12%	1.5	20.5%	12.8%	7.6%	2.2%	3.03	4.20	+0.3
2025	27	MIX MLE	4 levels	41	5	62	264	59	35	5	12%	1.5	20.5%	12.8%	7.6%	2.2%	3.03	4.20	+0.3
2025	27	MIX RAW	4 levels	41	5	62	264	59	35	5	12%	1.5	22.3%	13.3%	9.1%	1.9%	3.03	3.93	+0.5
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	51	5	54	238	57	25	5	10%	1.1	22.7%	10.1%	12.5%	2.1%	4.00	3.63	+0.6
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	51	5	54	238	57	25	5	10%	1.1	22.7%	10.1%	12.5%	2.1%	4.00	3.63	+0.6
2026	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	51	5	54	238	57	25	5	10%	1.1	23.9%	10.5%	13.4%	2.1%	4.00	3.58	+0.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			76	3	116	510	114	52	13	4%	1.5	22.4%	10.2%	12.2%	2.5%	4.34	3.94	+0.8
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	CWS	30	0	32	135	30	17	4	0%	1.1	22.3%	12.8%	9.5%	2.8%	4.50	4.73	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	CWS	38	0	40	167	36	22	5	0%	1.0	21.6%	13.1%	8.5%	3.0%	4.76	4.94	-0.2
2029	31	MLB MLE	CWS	30	0	32	133	28	18	4	0%	1.1	20.9%	13.4%	7.4%	3.2%	5.01	5.17	-0.2
2028	30	MLB CTX	CWS	35	0	37	156	34	20	5	0%	1.1	21.6%	13.1%	8.5%	3.0%	4.76	4.94	-0.2
2029	31	MLB CTX	CWS	29	0	30	127	26	17	4	0%	1.0	20.9%	13.4%	7.4%	3.2%	5.01	5.17	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		139	3	182	790	174	89	22	2%	1.3	22.0%	11.3%	10.7%	2.7%	4.54	4.17	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		153	3	200	867	191	98	24	2%	1.3	22.0%	11.3%	10.7%	2.7%	4.54	4.17	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		178	67	470	2037	435	221	69	38%	2.6	21.3%	10.8%	10.5%	3.4%	4.37	4.54	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		76	29	200	867	185	94	29	38%	2.6	21.3%	10.8%	10.5%	3.4%	4.37	4.54	+0.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAACharlotte Knights · 20 IPFIP 2.91 → 3.14 (+0.23)K% 25.0% → 21.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.00%	—	×0.860	21.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.23%	—	×0.900	9.20%
HR / BF /BF	1.14%	÷1.000	×1.100	1.25%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.91 → 3.14, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 21 IPFIP 3.47 → 3.65 (+0.18)K% 24.2% → 20.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.18%	—	×0.860	20.79%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.29%	—	×0.900	12.86%
HR / BF /BF	1.10%	÷0.984	×1.100	1.23%

Result: FIP 3.47 → 3.65, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 53 IPFIP 4.14 → 4.41 (+0.27)K% 24.2% → 20.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.21%	—	×0.860	20.82%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.30%	—	×0.900	11.07%
HR / BF /BF	2.78%	÷1.008	×1.100	3.03%

Result: FIP 4.14 → 4.41, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 75 IPFIP 4.47 → 4.94 (+0.47)K% 17.0% → 14.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.96%	—	×0.880	14.92%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.99%	—	×1.050	12.59%
HR / BF /BF	2.34%	÷0.939	×1.100	2.74%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 88).

Result: FIP 4.47 → 4.94, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 77 IPFIP 2.95 → 3.77 (+0.82)K% 29.8% → 24.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.84%	—	×0.810	24.17%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.16%	—	×1.100	11.18%
HR / BF /BF	1.97%	÷1.004	×1.200	2.35%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 101).

Result: FIP 2.95 → 3.77, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Greenville Drive · 68 IPFIP 4.99 → 7.00 (+2.01)K% 28.3% → 21.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.32%	—	×0.770	21.81%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.04%	—	×1.150	9.25%
HR / BF /BF	5.94%	÷0.891	×1.250	8.33%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 78).

Result: FIP 4.99 → 7.00, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 33 IPFIP 3.01 → 4.20 (+1.20)K% 34.1% → 27.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.06%	—	×0.810	27.59%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.42%	—	×1.100	10.36%
HR / BF /BF	2.90%	÷0.900	×1.200	3.86%

Result: FIP 3.01 → 4.20, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Chris Murphy (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.73	22.3%	12.8%	2.8%	—	5.04	21.3%	8.0%	71	+0.31	—	—	—
John Rheinecker L 2007 · 5.13 FIP	28	SW	5.13	16.7%	10.9%	3.8%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	121	74
Matt Whitehouse L 2019 · 4.07 FIP	28	SW	4.07	20.1%	10.9%	2.3%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	353	73
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	73
Ryan Verdugo L 2015 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	19.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.281	3.36	22.7%	17.3%	82	-0.25	3.36	153	73
Raul Valdes L 2010 · 4.02 FIP	32	SU	4.02	21.4%	9.9%	2.7%	.301	3.14	27.4%	22.5%	78	-0.88	2.29	160	71
Kelvin Marte L 2017 · 4.74 FIP	29	SW	4.74	16.1%	11.4%	2.8%	.300	5.25	12.0%	1.2%	71	+0.51	3.44	360	70
Randy Keisler L 2005 · 5.07 FIP	29	SW	5.07	16.4%	9.9%	3.8%	.295	5.51	6.5%	0.0%	17	+0.44	5.07	135	67
Colton Johnson L 2024 · 3.92 FIP	26	SU	3.92	20.8%	11.0%	2.1%	.309	4.53	12.2%	-0.4%	48	+0.61	3.92	106	66
Justin Marks L 2017 · 3.83 FIP	29	SW	3.83	18.7%	11.0%	1.7%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.83	324	66
Tyler Alexander L 2021 · 5.27 FIP	29	SW	5.27	15.7%	10.7%	3.9%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	5.27	128	65
Keith Hessler L 2018 · 4.96 FIP	29	SU	4.96	19.8%	13.3%	3.4%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	228	65
Edgar Olmos L 2017 · 3.64 FIP	27	SW	3.64	18.9%	9.7%	1.7%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	203	65
Stephen Randolph L 2003 · 4.83 FIP	29	SU	4.83	18.5%	14.8%	2.6%	.247	5.69	15.8%	-3.0%	82	+0.86	4.83	155	65
Jimmy Reyes L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	28	SU	4.92	13.8%	8.0%	3.6%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.02	200	63
Brian Flynn L 2019 · 4.49 FIP	29	SW	4.49	17.7%	10.1%	2.9%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	295	62
Sam Freeman L 2016 · 4.22 FIP	29	SU	4.22	16.3%	11.8%	1.8%	.345	4.02	22.1%	10.5%	169	-0.20	3.02	369	62
Josh Smoker L 2018 · 3.66 FIP	29	SU	3.66	22.1%	8.4%	2.5%	.318	6.58	14.2%	3.4%	14	+2.92	2.71	230	62
Phil Pfeifer L 2021 · 5.65 FIP	29	SW	5.65	19.5%	14.8%	4.2%	.394	—	—	—	—	—	3.61	307	62
Darin Downs L 2014 · 3.78 FIP	29	SU	3.78	18.2%	11.5%	1.4%	.255	4.06	12.9%	8.7%	16	+0.28	2.83	107	61
Chad Bell L 2018 · 4.38 FIP	29	SU	4.38	18.8%	7.4%	3.5%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	393	61

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	37	22.0%	11.7%	1.06	4.54
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Manny Acosta ('12)	1.2	41	20.5%	10.9%	1.09	3.99
José Cisnero ('24)	1.4	46	24.0%	11.3%	1.01	4.16
Yorkis Perez ('02)	1.4	40	20.8%	11.8%	0.93	4.44
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*