Chris Murphy — OGILVIE

Chris Murphy P Chicago White Sox

Age 28 LHP 6'1" / 186 lbs MLB

2026 ROS PROJECTION51 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 101109vR 117

ERA4.13

FIP4.42

K%21.1%

BB%12.8%

K-BB%8.4%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL2525

CMD3535

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7596.3

Whiff%

p8931.4%

p5122.4%

xwOBA vs

p710.292

CH+0.7 (4%)

SI (3%)

CU (25%)

FB-0.6 (36%)

SL-2.5 (37%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	20	101	424	128	36	21	95%	4.8	23.7%	9.6%	14.1%	6.9%	4.62	6.09	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	20	101	424	128	36	21	95%	4.8	30.2%	8.5%	21.7%	5.0%	4.62	4.33	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	28	152	647	149	72	14	93%	5.1	19.3%	11.9%	7.4%	2.6%	4.03	4.39	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	28	152	647	149	72	14	93%	5.1	23.0%	11.1%	11.9%	2.2%	4.03	3.76	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	9	100	464	110	48	12	26%	2.9	21.5%	9.7%	11.8%	2.8%	5.65	4.02	+0.6
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	9	100	464	110	48	12	26%	2.9	21.5%	9.7%	11.8%	2.8%	5.65	4.02	+0.6
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	9	100	464	110	48	12	26%	2.9	23.7%	10.3%	13.4%	2.6%	5.65	3.90	+0.8
2025	27	MIX MLE	4 levels	41	5	62	264	59	35	5	12%	1.5	20.2%	12.8%	7.3%	2.2%	3.03	4.22	+0.2
2025	27	MIX MLE	4 levels	41	5	62	264	59	35	5	12%	1.5	20.2%	12.8%	7.3%	2.2%	3.03	4.22	+0.2
2025	27	MIX RAW	4 levels	41	5	62	264	59	35	5	12%	1.5	22.3%	13.3%	9.1%	1.9%	3.03	3.93	+0.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			73	2	113	494	109	51	11	3%	1.5	22.1%	10.3%	11.7%	2.2%	4.14	3.79	+1.0
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	48	4	51	222	52	24	3	8%	1.1	21.7%	10.4%	11.3%	1.4%	3.53	3.34	+0.7
YTD	28	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	48	4	51	222	52	24	3	8%	1.1	21.7%	10.4%	11.3%	1.4%	3.53	3.34	+0.7
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	AAA RAW	CWS	18	2	20	88	22	9	1	11%	1.1	25.0%	10.2%	14.8%	1.1%	2.66	2.91	—
2026	28	MLB RAW	CWS	30	2	31	134	30	15	2	7%	1.0	22.4%	11.2%	11.2%	1.5%	4.11	3.45	+0.4
SO FAR	28	MLB RAW	CWS	30	2	31	134	30	15	2	7%	1.0	22.4%	11.2%	11.2%	1.5%	4.11	3.45	+0.4
ROS	28	MLB MLE	CWS	6	0	6	26	5	3	1	0%	1.0	21.1%	12.8%	8.4%	2.7%	4.13	4.42	+0.0
ROS	28	MLB CTX	CWS	6	0	6	25	5	3	1	0%	1.0	21.1%	12.8%	8.4%	2.7%	4.13	4.42	+0.0
2026 TOT	28	MLB MLE	CWS	—	—	57	248	57	27	4	—	—	23.2%	11.0%	12.2%	1.5%	3.59	3.45	+0.8
FULL	28	MLB A+C	CWS	—	—	37	155	57	27	4	—	—	37.0%	17.6%	19.4%	2.4%	5.58	3.51	+0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	CWS	61	0	64	269	56	36	7	0%	1.0	20.7%	13.2%	7.5%	2.7%	4.69	4.87	-0.2
2028	30	MLB MLE	CWS	57	0	60	253	51	34	7	0%	1.1	20.0%	13.5%	6.5%	2.9%	4.92	5.08	-0.4
2027	29	MLB CTX	CWS	58	0	61	258	53	34	7	0%	1.1	20.7%	13.2%	7.5%	2.7%	4.69	4.87	-0.2
2028	30	MLB CTX	CWS	54	0	57	241	48	32	7	0%	1.1	20.0%	13.5%	6.5%	2.9%	4.92	5.08	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		191	2	237	1016	215	120	25	1%	1.2	21.2%	11.9%	9.3%	2.5%	4.47	4.19	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		161	2	200	859	182	101	21	1%	1.2	21.2%	11.9%	9.3%	2.5%	4.47	4.19	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		175	66	467	2021	426	220	67	38%	2.7	21.1%	10.9%	10.2%	3.3%	4.32	4.52	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		75	28	200	866	183	94	29	38%	2.7	21.1%	10.9%	10.2%	3.3%	4.32	4.52	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Chris Murphy (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.99	20.7%	13.6%	2.8%	—	4.97	20.3%	7.0%	124	-0.02	—	—	—
Matt Whitehouse L 2019 · 4.07 FIP	28	SW	4.07	20.1%	10.9%	2.3%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	353	75
Juan Grullon L 2016 · 4.64 FIP	26	SU	4.64	19.8%	10.9%	3.3%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.64	134	72
Jeremy Horst L 2015 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	18.8%	11.2%	2.1%	.291	3.71	15.1%	2.7%	48	-0.38	3.71	108	72
Aaron Brown L 2019 · 4.04 FIP	27	SU	4.04	22.9%	13.5%	2.1%	.317	4.77	19.4%	6.7%	129	+0.73	4.04	269	71
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	70
Brendan Nail L 2023 · 4.39 FIP	27	SU	4.39	18.9%	10.5%	2.8%	.262	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	165	70
Ashur Tolliver L 2016 · 4.19 FIP	28	SU	4.19	21.3%	9.8%	3.0%	.308	5.03	13.8%	-5.1%	35	+0.84	3.49	134	69
Ross Detwiler L 2015 · 5.50 FIP	29	SW	5.50	14.2%	12.2%	3.8%	.356	4.80	14.1%	5.9%	242	-0.70	3.49	512	68
Josh Osich L 2017 · 5.00 FIP	28	SU	5.00	21.4%	12.9%	3.8%	.328	4.47	21.1%	14.1%	143	-0.53	3.41	315	68
Chad Bell L 2017 · 4.57 FIP	28	SW	4.57	19.4%	8.9%	3.6%	.341	4.38	18.8%	11.4%	57	-0.19	3.39	393	67
Jordan Harrison L 2019 · 3.80 FIP	28	SU	3.80	19.1%	9.7%	2.0%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	244	67
Will Lamb L 2017 · 5.78 FIP	26	SU	5.78	20.0%	14.0%	4.7%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.64	178	67
Jimmy Reyes L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	28	SU	4.92	13.8%	8.0%	3.6%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.02	200	67
Trevor Lane L 2022 · 4.05 FIP	28	SU	4.05	22.2%	12.7%	2.2%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	2.13	246	66
Kit Scheetz L 2021 · 5.08 FIP	27	SU	5.08	16.2%	13.6%	2.9%	.278	—	—	—	—	—	2.34	195	66
Trey Jeans L 2022 · 5.09 FIP	26	SU	5.09	22.3%	16.5%	3.3%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	2.74	111	66
Triston Polley L 2023 · 4.15 FIP	26	SU	4.15	17.8%	8.9%	2.6%	.331	4.53	17.4%	-0.3%	22	+0.38	4.15	151	66
Sam Freeman L 2015 · 4.21 FIP	28	SU	4.21	23.4%	14.6%	2.2%	.265	3.52	22.0%	10.3%	166	-0.69	3.03	299	65
Hayden Deal L 2023 · 4.01 FIP	28	SW	4.01	15.7%	11.4%	1.4%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	3.01	420	65
Keith Hessler L 2017 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	15.5%	11.8%	3.5%	.324	4.96	19.8%	6.5%	53	-0.22	3.31	228	65

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	64	20.5%	13.4%	1.07	4.77
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10