Lucas Gordon

P Birmingham Barons

Age 25 LHP 6'1" / 193 lbs AA peak 0.2 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	23	23	113	2.23	4.14	21.7%	13.5%	—	K 16.3% · BB 15.7% · FIP 5.61
2025	23	MIX2 levels	24	24	108	3.59	3.32	26.4%	9.6%	—	K 20.6% · BB 10.9% · FIP 4.44
2026	24	AACWS	27	27	117	5.45	4.75	24.1%	11.8%	—	K 19.5% · BB 12.9% · FIP 5.67
2027PROJ	25	MLBCWS	1	1	2	5.50	5.50	19.2%	13.2%	-0.0
2028PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBCWS	6	6	36	5.36	5.35	19.6%	12.6%	0.0
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBCWS	8	8	47	5.29	5.30	19.8%	12.3%	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control45Command45

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 4.2, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 84%

CompsJimmy Robbins (age 25) · Miguel Cienfuegos (age 26) · Christian MacLeod (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121129vR 138

ERA5.50

FIP5.50

K%19.2%

BB%13.2%

K-BB%6.0%

Proj IP80

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 80 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4545

CMD4545

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	2	11	48	14	8	0	29%	1.6	29.2%	16.7%	12.5%	0.0%	0.82	2.75	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	2	11	48	14	8	0	29%	1.6	29.2%	16.7%	12.5%	0.0%	0.82	2.74	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	113	452	98	61	10	100%	4.9	16.3%	15.7%	0.5%	3.4%	2.23	5.61	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	113	452	98	61	10	100%	4.9	16.3%	15.7%	0.5%	3.4%	2.23	5.61	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	113	452	98	61	10	100%	4.9	21.7%	13.5%	8.2%	2.2%	2.23	4.14	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	108	439	116	42	10	100%	4.5	20.6%	10.9%	9.6%	3.1%	3.59	4.44	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	108	439	116	42	10	100%	4.5	20.6%	10.9%	9.6%	3.1%	3.59	4.44	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	108	439	116	42	10	100%	4.5	26.4%	9.6%	16.9%	2.3%	3.59	3.32	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	27	27	117	510	123	60	20	100%	4.3	19.5%	12.9%	6.6%	4.7%	5.45	5.67	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	27	27	117	510	123	60	20	100%	4.3	19.5%	12.9%	6.6%	4.7%	5.45	5.67	—
2026	24	AA RAW	Birmingham Barons	27	27	117	510	123	60	20	100%	4.3	24.1%	11.8%	12.4%	3.9%	5.45	4.75	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	CWS	1	1	2	8	2	1	0	100%	2.0	19.2%	13.2%	6.0%	3.6%	5.50	5.50	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	CWS	14	14	83	349	68	44	12	100%	5.9	19.6%	12.6%	7.1%	3.5%	5.36	5.35	+0.0
2029	27	MLB MLE	CWS	12	12	74	310	61	38	11	100%	6.1	19.8%	12.3%	7.5%	3.5%	5.29	5.30	+0.1
2030	28	MLB MLE	CWS	11	11	68	288	57	35	10	100%	6.2	19.8%	12.2%	7.6%	3.6%	5.30	5.34	+0.0
2031	29	MLB MLE	CWS	10	10	63	265	52	33	10	100%	6.3	19.6%	12.3%	7.3%	3.7%	5.37	5.44	-0.0
2032	30	MLB MLE	CWS	9	9	57	239	46	30	9	100%	6.3	19.2%	12.6%	6.6%	3.9%	5.52	5.62	-0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	CWS	6	6	36	152	30	19	5	100%	6.0	19.6%	12.6%	7.1%	3.5%	5.36	5.35	+0.0
2029	27	MLB CTX	CWS	8	8	47	198	39	24	7	100%	5.9	19.8%	12.3%	7.5%	3.5%	5.29	5.30	+0.1
2030	28	MLB CTX	CWS	8	8	51	215	43	26	8	100%	6.4	19.8%	12.2%	7.6%	3.6%	5.30	5.34	+0.0
2031	29	MLB CTX	CWS	8	8	51	215	42	27	8	100%	6.4	19.6%	12.3%	7.3%	3.7%	5.37	5.44	-0.0
2032	30	MLB CTX	CWS	8	8	49	207	40	26	8	100%	6.1	19.2%	12.6%	6.6%	3.9%	5.52	5.62	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		39	39	234	989	194	122	36	100%	6.0	19.6%	12.4%	7.2%	3.7%	5.37	5.03	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	166	104	31	100%	6.0	19.6%	12.4%	7.2%	3.7%	5.37	5.03	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		81	76	349	1449	277	193	53	94%	4.3	19.1%	13.3%	5.8%	3.7%	3.69	5.18	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	44	200	830	159	111	30	94%	4.3	19.1%	13.3%	5.8%	3.7%	3.69	5.18	+0.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AABirmingham Barons · 117 IPFIP 4.71 → 5.67 (+0.97)K% 24.1% → 19.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.12%	—	×0.810	19.54%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.76%	—	×1.100	12.94%
HR / BF /BF	3.92%	÷1.000	×1.200	4.71%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.71 → 5.67, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 86 IPFIP 3.69 → 4.91 (+1.22)K% 25.4% → 19.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.41%	—	×0.770	19.57%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.67%	—	×1.150	11.12%
HR / BF /BF	2.76%	÷0.923	×1.250	3.74%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 85).

Result: FIP 3.69 → 4.91, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AABirmingham Barons · 21 IPFIP 1.62 → 2.23 (+0.62)K% 31.2% → 25.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.17%	—	×0.810	25.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.09%	—	×1.100	10.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.784	×1.200	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.62 → 2.23, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AKannapolis Cannon Ballers · 71 IPFIP 3.62 → 4.98 (+1.35)K% 23.3% → 17.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.32%	—	×0.740	17.26%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.01%	—	×1.180	14.18%
HR / BF /BF	1.77%	÷0.820	×1.300	2.80%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 64).

Result: FIP 3.62 → 4.98, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 42 IPFIP 5.15 → 6.68 (+1.53)K% 18.9% → 14.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.93%	—	×0.770	14.58%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.98%	—	×1.150	18.37%
HR / BF /BF	2.96%	÷0.817	×1.250	4.53%

Result: FIP 5.15 → 6.68, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKACL White Sox · 6 IPFIP 2.94 → 4.33 (+1.39)K% 29.6% → 20.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.63%	—	×0.680	20.15%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	18.52%	—	×1.250	23.15%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷2.194	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 339).

Result: FIP 2.94 → 4.33, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AKannapolis Cannon Ballers · 5 IPFIP 2.50 → 3.45 (+0.95)K% 28.6% → 21.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.57%	—	×0.740	21.14%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.29%	—	×1.180	16.86%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.861	×1.300	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.50 → 3.45, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Lucas Gordon (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.50	19.2%	13.2%	3.6%	—	5.33	19.7%	7.4%	224	-0.17	—	—	—
Jimmy Robbins L 2023 · 4.69 FIP	25	SP-	4.69	17.8%	15.2%	2.1%	.290	5.73	19.6%	3.8%	13	+1.04	3.85	176	81
Miguel Cienfuegos L 2023 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP	5.12	13.6%	10.5%	3.4%	.257	4.54	14.3%	5.8%	242	-0.58	2.95	313	81
Christian MacLeod L 2024 · 4.77 FIP	24	SP	4.77	21.5%	13.6%	3.2%	.269	4.50	18.0%	3.0%	128	-0.27	3.88	280	80
Brandon Claussen L 2004 · 4.80 FIP	25	SP	4.80	14.4%	10.5%	2.9%	.314	4.56	16.5%	9.2%	244	-0.24	4.41	310	80
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	79
Dylan Carmouche L 2024 · 4.35 FIP	22	SP	4.35	19.0%	11.6%	2.5%	.332	5.21	16.7%	6.8%	116	+0.86	4.35	239	78
Caden Grice L 2024 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP	4.33	23.1%	15.7%	2.2%	.282	5.05	17.9%	2.3%	83	+0.72	4.33	133	77
Erik Rivera L 2024 · 5.71 FIP	23	SP-	5.71	19.0%	14.6%	4.3%	.255	4.74	23.9%	6.3%	106	-0.97	4.42	141	76
Austin Emener L 2024 · 4.86 FIP	22	SP	4.86	19.4%	9.3%	4.1%	.306	5.38	21.4%	5.6%	63	+0.52	4.86	123	76
David Purcey L 2008 · 4.39 FIP	26	SP	4.39	20.1%	10.0%	3.1%	.301	4.39	17.9%	5.0%	116	-0.00	3.60	206	76
Brett Adcock L 2019 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP	5.34	17.4%	13.6%	3.6%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	301	76
Drew Dowd L 2024 · 4.36 FIP	22	SP	4.36	16.1%	11.7%	2.1%	.280	3.13	24.9%	16.0%	55	-1.23	3.13	166	75
Hunter Owen L 2024 · 4.32 FIP	22	SP	4.32	14.5%	8.7%	2.5%	.270	4.72	20.7%	10.2%	189	+0.40	4.16	291	74
Jaylen Nowlin L 2024 · 5.15 FIP	23	SP-	5.15	18.7%	12.6%	3.7%	.299	4.77	21.7%	3.2%	100	-0.38	3.45	372	74
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP-	5.03	16.0%	10.1%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	5.03	116	74
Will Dion L 2024 · 4.97 FIP	24	SP	4.97	19.3%	9.4%	4.2%	.309	3.39	23.5%	16.3%	186	-1.58	3.14	535	74
Scott Downs L 2000 · 4.63 FIP	24	SP	4.63	14.3%	8.8%	2.9%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	2.68	748	74
Daniel Camarena L 2018 · 4.32 FIP	25	SP	4.32	15.9%	9.7%	2.4%	.338	4.71	16.9%	10.5%	187	+0.39	3.76	674	74
Jake McSteen L 2021 · 5.05 FIP	25	SP-	5.05	16.8%	7.3%	4.5%	.322	5.18	19.2%	12.5%	172	+0.13	2.22	286	74
Michael O'Connor L 2006 · 4.93 FIP	25	SP	4.93	13.0%	8.8%	3.3%	.238	—	—	—	—	—	4.93	105	74

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.1	71	19.5%	12.5%	1.41	5.39
Paul Spoljaric ('00)	1.4	69	22.1%	12.9%	1.33	5.52
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Scott Proctor ('11)	1.7	57	19.0%	10.9%	1.52	4.78
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Phil Hennigan ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.4	70	20.9%*	10.4%*	1.50*	4.95*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*