Lucas Gordon
P
Birmingham Barons
Age 24
LHP
6'1" / 193 lbs
AA
peak 0.7 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION87 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118127vR 136
ERA5.21
FIP5.21
K%19.2%
BB%12.6%
K-BB%6.6%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 152 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 7 | 2 | 11 | 48 | 14 | 8 | 0 | 29% | 1.6 | 29.2% | 16.7% | 12.5% | 0.0% | 0.82 | 2.75 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 7 | 2 | 11 | 48 | 14 | 8 | 0 | 29% | 1.6 | 29.2% | 16.7% | 12.5% | 0.0% | 0.82 | 2.74 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 23 | 113 | 452 | 98 | 61 | 10 | 100% | 4.9 | 16.3% | 15.7% | 0.5% | 4.4% | 2.23 | 6.15 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 23 | 113 | 452 | 98 | 61 | 10 | 100% | 4.9 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 8.2% | 2.2% | 2.23 | 4.14 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 24 | 108 | 439 | 116 | 42 | 10 | 100% | 4.5 | 20.6% | 10.9% | 9.6% | 3.4% | 3.59 | 4.60 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 24 | 108 | 439 | 116 | 42 | 10 | 100% | 4.5 | 26.4% | 9.6% | 16.9% | 2.3% | 3.59 | 3.32 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Birmingham Barons | 18 | 18 | 87 | 375 | 96 | 42 | 17 | 100% | 4.9 | 20.7% | 12.3% | 8.4% | 5.4% | 5.15 | 5.90 | -0.8 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | CWS | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 52 | 35 | 9 | 100% | 5.4 | 19.2% | 12.6% | 6.6% | 3.2% | 5.21 | 5.21 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | CWS | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 19.2% | 12.6% | 6.6% | 3.2% | 5.21 | 5.21 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 152 | 649 | 148 | 77 | 26 | — | — | 22.9% | 11.8% | 11.1% | 4.0% | 5.18 | 5.60 | -0.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 19.2% | 12.6% | 6.6% | 3.2% | 5.21 | 4.83 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | CWS | 13 | 13 | 78 | 328 | 65 | 38 | 10 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.0% | 11.6% | 8.4% | 3.2% | 5.04 | 4.99 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | CWS | 13 | 13 | 78 | 328 | 67 | 37 | 10 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.4% | 11.4% | 9.1% | 3.1% | 4.95 | 4.92 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | CWS | 13 | 13 | 76 | 323 | 66 | 37 | 10 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.6% | 11.3% | 9.2% | 3.2% | 4.93 | 4.93 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | CWS | 6 | 6 | 34 | 144 | 29 | 17 | 5 | 100% | 5.7 | 20.0% | 11.6% | 8.4% | 3.2% | 5.04 | 4.99 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | CWS | 9 | 9 | 52 | 220 | 45 | 25 | 7 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.4% | 11.4% | 9.1% | 3.1% | 4.95 | 4.92 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | CWS | 10 | 10 | 59 | 249 | 51 | 28 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.6% | 11.3% | 9.2% | 3.2% | 4.93 | 4.93 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 25 | 25 | 147 | 619 | 126 | 71 | 20 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.4% | 11.4% | 8.9% | 3.2% | 4.97 | 4.56 | +1.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 172 | 97 | 27 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.4% | 11.4% | 8.9% | 3.2% | 4.97 | 4.56 | +2.0 | ||
| Career | — | 72 | 67 | 319 | 1314 | 256 | 173 | 55 | 93% | 4.4 | 19.4% | 13.2% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 3.44 | 5.43 | -0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 45 | 42 | 200 | 824 | 160 | 109 | 35 | 93% | 4.4 | 19.4% | 13.2% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 3.44 | 5.43 | -0.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Lucas Gordon (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.21 | 19.2% | 12.6% | 3.2% | — | 4.95 | 20.3% | 8.9% | 232 | -0.26 | — | — | — |
| Aidan Deakins L 2024 · 5.29 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.29 | 17.1% | 11.1% | 4.1% | .267 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 119 | 82 |
| Zach Thornton L 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.22 | 20.9% | 10.1% | 2.9% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.95 | 221 | 82 |
| Christian MacLeod L 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.83 | 21.5% | 13.6% | 3.3% | .269 | 4.13 | 20.5% | 7.4% | 96 | -0.70 | 3.84 | 249 | 81 |
| Connor O'Halloran L 2023 · 5.02 FIP | 21 | SP | 5.02 | 17.2% | 12.3% | 3.3% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.02 | 104 | 81 |
| Caden Grice L 2026 · 5.28 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.28 | 17.3% | 15.5% | 3.1% | .265 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 105 | 81 |
| Shane Drohan L 2026 · 5.30 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.30 | 20.1% | 13.8% | 3.9% | .308 | 3.29 | 25.5% | 16.3% | 142 | -2.01 | 2.91 | 484 | 80 |
| Brian Holmes L 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.25 | 21.0% | 9.9% | 3.0% | .333 | 4.75 | 17.3% | 8.0% | 104 | +0.50 | 3.42 | 205 | 80 |
| Will Dion L 2026 · 5.01 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.01 | 19.7% | 10.9% | 4.0% | .309 | 3.25 | 22.6% | 14.9% | 148 | -1.76 | 2.44 | 496 | 79 |
| Michel Gelabert L 2024 · 4.58 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.58 | 18.7% | 12.1% | 2.8% | .248 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.36 | 107 | 79 |
| Jake Zokan L 2026 · 5.12 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.12 | 12.5% | 9.9% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.80 | 24.2% | 22.5% | 37 | -3.32 | 1.80 | 120 | 79 |
| Miguel Cienfuegos L 2028 · 5.52 FIP | 26 | SP | 5.52 | 13.6% | 10.5% | 4.1% | .257 | 4.63 | 14.5% | 5.5% | 228 | -0.89 | 3.09 | 299 | 79 |
| James Paxton L 2028 · 4.26 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.26 | 18.9% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .288 | 3.00 | 27.7% | 21.7% | 468 | -1.26 | 2.48 | 924 | 78 |
| Connor Wietgrefe L 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.26 | 18.7% | 8.5% | 3.0% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 200 | 78 |
| Bryan Radziewski L 2025 · 4.19 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.19 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 2.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.19 | 106 | 78 |
| Matt Portland L 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.64 | 17.4% | 11.0% | 2.9% | .364 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.61 | 143 | 78 |
| Cameron Bishop L 2025 · 4.52 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.52 | 16.6% | 13.9% | 1.9% | .316 | 3.28 | 23.8% | 11.5% | 66 | -1.24 | 2.86 | 305 | 78 |
| Grant Watson L 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.68 | 16.4% | 10.3% | 3.0% | .344 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.59 | 180 | 77 |
| T.J. Sikkema L 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.71 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 4.2% | .298 | 4.64 | 16.9% | 7.4% | 231 | -0.07 | 3.39 | 300 | 77 |
| Brett Adcock L 2025 · 5.22 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.22 | 17.4% | 13.6% | 3.4% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.01 | 301 | 77 |
| Jack Choate L 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.11 | 22.4% | 12.6% | 2.4% | .317 | 3.84 | 24.2% | 6.1% | 32 | -0.27 | 2.75 | 315 | 76 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 77 | 20.0% | 11.7% | 1.23 | 5.03 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |