Lucas Gordon
P
Birmingham Barons
+0.5
WAR
Age 24
LHP
6'1" / 193 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 1.2 · 2029
ERA4.74
FIP4.74
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.2%
BB%11.0%
K-BB%10.2%
IP109
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.2peak
2029
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | A | Kannapolis Cannon Ballers | 7 | 2 | 11 | 48 | 14 | 8 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.82 | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | 23 | 23 | 113 | 452 | 98 | 61 | 10 | 16.3% | 15.7% | 3.6% | 2.23 | 5.70 | -0.5 |
| 2025 | 23 | AA | Birmingham Barons | 24 | 24 | 108 | 439 | 116 | 42 | 10 | 20.6% | 10.9% | 3.0% | 3.59 | 4.40 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Birmingham Barons | 3 | 3 | 13 | 56 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 11.6% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 8.53 | 8.07 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | CWS | 20 | 20 | 109 | 462 | 98 | 51 | 14 | 21.2% | 11.0% | 3.0% | 4.74 | 4.74 | +0.7 |
| 2026 Total | 24 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 122 | 518 | 106 | 56 | 18 | 20.5% | 10.8% | 3.5% | 5.13 | 5.09 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | CWS | 22 | 22 | 123 | 518 | 112 | 53 | 16 | 21.7% | 10.2% | 3.0% | 4.62 | 4.58 | +1.0 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | CWS | 24 | 24 | 130 | 548 | 120 | 54 | 16 | 21.9% | 9.9% | 3.0% | 4.56 | 4.54 | +1.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | CWS | 24 | 24 | 133 | 561 | 123 | 55 | 17 | 21.9% | 9.8% | 3.0% | 4.54 | 4.53 | +1.2 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | CWS | 24 | 24 | 133 | 561 | 123 | 55 | 17 | 21.9% | 9.8% | 3.0% | 4.54 | 4.55 | +1.1 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | CWS | 24 | 24 | 130 | 548 | 119 | 54 | 17 | 21.8% | 9.9% | 3.1% | 4.57 | 4.60 | +1.0 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | CWS | 23 | 23 | 126 | 532 | 115 | 53 | 17 | 21.6% | 10.0% | 3.2% | 4.62 | 4.66 | +0.9 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | CWS | 22 | 22 | 122 | 513 | 109 | 52 | 17 | 21.3% | 10.2% | 3.2% | 4.69 | 4.73 | +0.8 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | CWS | 21 | 21 | 117 | 492 | 104 | 51 | 16 | 21.1% | 10.3% | 3.3% | 4.77 | 4.82 | +0.6 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | CWS | 20 | 20 | 111 | 470 | 98 | 49 | 16 | 20.7% | 10.5% | 3.4% | 4.86 | 4.92 | +0.5 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | CWS | 19 | 19 | 106 | 447 | 91 | 48 | 16 | 20.4% | 10.7% | 3.5% | 4.96 | 5.03 | +0.3 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | CWS | 18 | 18 | 100 | 421 | 84 | 46 | 15 | 20.0% | 10.9% | 3.6% | 5.07 | 5.15 | +0.2 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | CWS | 17 | 17 | 93 | 394 | 77 | 44 | 15 | 19.6% | 11.2% | 3.7% | 5.20 | 5.28 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 57 | 52 | 244 | 995 | 184 | 133 | 34 | 18.5% | 13.3% | 3.5% | 3.09 | 5.12 | +0.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 47 | 43 | 200 | 814 | 151 | 109 | 28 | 18.5% | 13.3% | 3.5% | 3.09 | 5.12 | +0.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Lucas Gordon (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.74 | 21.2% | 11.0% | 3.0% | — | 4.55 | 21.9% | 11.9% | 385 | -0.19 | — | — | — |
| Hayden Wynja L 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.73 | 20.5% | 10.5% | 3.7% | .315 | 4.79 | 18.0% | 7.5% | 56 | +0.06 | 4.73 | 154 | 92 |
| Brian Holmes L 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.31 | 21.0% | 9.9% | 3.1% | .333 | 4.77 | 17.3% | 8.0% | 104 | +0.46 | 3.58 | 205 | 91 |
| Garrett Schoenle L 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.62 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 3.5% | .263 | 4.28 | 21.0% | 9.5% | 219 | -0.34 | 2.32 | 304 | 90 |
| Sam Garcia L 2025 · 5.14 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.14 | 18.5% | 12.7% | 3.6% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.14 | 101 | 89 |
| Dalton Sawyer L 2025 · 4.07 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.07 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.07 | 160 | 89 |
| Hunter Owen L 2025 · 4.14 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.14 | 21.0% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.14 | 197 | 88 |
| Jack Choate L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.27 | 22.4% | 12.6% | 2.7% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.70 | 282 | 87 |
| Will Dion L 2026 · 5.16 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.16 | 19.7% | 10.9% | 4.3% | .309 | 3.76 | 19.5% | 10.5% | 99 | -1.40 | 3.39 | 448 | 87 |
| A.J. Block L 2025 · 3.73 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.73 | 22.8% | 10.0% | 2.4% | .262 | 5.75 | 20.1% | 8.4% | 51 | +2.02 | 3.65 | 203 | 87 |
| Luis Leroy Cruz L 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.02 | 16.0% | 10.1% | 3.6% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.02 | 116 | 86 |
| Tate Kuehner L 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.87 | 21.5% | 13.8% | 1.5% | .295 | 2.85 | 16.8% | 7.5% | 16 | -1.02 | 2.85 | 221 | 85 |
| Bryan Radziewski L 2025 · 4.15 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.15 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 2.0% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 106 | 85 |
| Shane Drohan L 2026 · 5.33 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.33 | 20.1% | 13.8% | 4.0% | .308 | 3.13 | 28.9% | 17.7% | 59 | -2.20 | 2.89 | 400 | 85 |
| David Parkinson L 2025 · 3.69 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.69 | 19.6% | 8.8% | 2.1% | .303 | 5.45 | 16.0% | 8.2% | 78 | +1.76 | 3.06 | 517 | 84 |
| Jackson Kent L 2024 · 4.40 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.40 | 20.2% | 8.5% | 3.5% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.40 | 123 | 84 |
| Juan Pablo Oramas L 2027 · 3.99 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.99 | 16.5% | 8.6% | 2.2% | .313 | 3.83 | 17.4% | 6.8% | 186 | -0.16 | 3.41 | 440 | 84 |
| Ryan Ramsey L 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.39 | 18.5% | 11.4% | 2.6% | .326 | 3.95 | 18.3% | 8.4% | 13 | -0.44 | 2.69 | 255 | 83 |
| Trey Dombroski L 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.76 | 20.1% | 11.5% | 1.6% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.76 | 329 | 83 |
| Matt Wilkinson L 2024 · 4.84 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.84 | 20.2% | 11.6% | 3.6% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.21 | 223 | 83 |
| Connor O'Halloran L 2023 · 5.08 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.08 | 17.2% | 12.3% | 3.4% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.08 | 104 | 82 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +1.2 | $10M | +$10M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.1 | $10M | +$9M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +1.0 | $9M | +$8M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.9 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.8 | $4M | +$2M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.6 | $3M | +$0.6M |
| Totals | $9M | $41M | +$32M | ||