Lucas Gordon — OGILVIE

Lucas Gordon P Birmingham Barons

Age 24 LHP 6'1" / 193 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.9 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION117 act + 7 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115123vR 131

ERA5.17

FIP5.17

K%19.2%

BB%13.0%

K-BB%6.1%

ROS IP7

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 124 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$3M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4545

CMD4545

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Arb-1	$0.4M	—	—	—
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	2	11	48	14	8	0	29%	1.6	29.2%	16.7%	12.5%	0.0%	0.82	2.75	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	2	11	48	14	8	0	29%	1.6	29.2%	16.7%	12.5%	0.0%	0.82	2.75	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	2	11	48	14	8	0	29%	1.6	29.2%	16.7%	12.5%	0.0%	0.82	2.74	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	113	452	98	61	10	100%	4.9	16.3%	15.7%	0.5%	3.4%	2.23	5.61	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	113	452	98	61	10	100%	4.9	16.3%	15.7%	0.5%	3.4%	2.23	5.61	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	113	452	98	61	10	100%	4.9	21.7%	13.5%	8.2%	2.2%	2.23	4.14	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	108	439	116	42	10	100%	4.5	20.6%	10.9%	9.6%	3.1%	3.59	4.44	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	108	439	116	42	10	100%	4.5	20.6%	10.9%	9.6%	3.1%	3.59	4.44	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	108	439	116	42	10	100%	4.5	26.4%	9.6%	16.9%	2.3%	3.59	3.32	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	27	27	117	510	123	60	20	100%	4.3	19.5%	12.9%	6.6%	4.7%	5.45	5.67	—
YTD	24	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	27	27	117	510	123	60	20	100%	4.3	19.5%	12.9%	6.6%	4.7%	5.45	5.67	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	AA RAW	CWS	27	27	117	510	123	60	20	100%	4.3	24.1%	11.8%	12.4%	3.9%	5.45	4.71	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	CWS	1	1	7	29	6	4	1	100%	7.0	19.2%	13.0%	6.1%	3.0%	5.17	5.17	-0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	CWS	—	—	124	539	129	64	21	—	—	23.8%	11.8%	12.0%	3.9%	5.43	5.64	-1.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	CWS	20	20	116	491	97	58	15	100%	5.8	19.8%	11.8%	8.0%	3.0%	5.00	4.95	-0.1
2028	26	MLB MLE	CWS	19	19	116	491	99	56	15	100%	6.1	20.2%	11.4%	8.8%	3.0%	4.90	4.87	+0.0
2029	27	MLB MLE	CWS	19	19	115	484	98	55	15	100%	6.0	20.3%	11.3%	8.9%	3.1%	4.87	4.88	+0.0
2030	28	MLB MLE	CWS	19	19	111	470	95	53	15	100%	5.9	20.2%	11.4%	8.8%	3.1%	4.91	4.95	-0.1
2031	29	MLB MLE	CWS	18	18	106	448	89	52	15	100%	5.9	20.0%	11.6%	8.3%	3.3%	5.01	5.08	-0.2
2032	30	MLB MLE	CWS	17	17	100	421	83	50	15	100%	5.9	19.6%	11.9%	7.7%	3.5%	5.16	5.26	-0.4
2027	25	MLB CTX	CWS	9	9	51	215	43	25	7	100%	5.7	19.8%	11.8%	8.0%	3.1%	5.03	4.98	-0.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	CWS	13	13	78	329	66	38	10	100%	6.0	20.2%	11.4%	8.8%	3.1%	4.93	4.90	+0.0
2029	27	MLB CTX	CWS	15	15	89	376	76	43	12	100%	5.9	20.3%	11.3%	8.9%	3.1%	4.90	4.91	+0.0
2030	28	MLB CTX	CWS	16	16	94	397	80	45	13	100%	5.9	20.2%	11.4%	8.8%	3.2%	4.94	4.98	-0.1
2031	29	MLB CTX	CWS	16	16	93	393	78	46	13	100%	5.8	20.0%	11.6%	8.3%	3.4%	5.04	5.11	-0.2
2032	30	MLB CTX	CWS	15	15	90	380	74	45	14	100%	6.0	19.6%	11.9%	7.7%	3.6%	5.19	5.29	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		83	83	494	2088	418	242	68	100%	6.0	20.0%	11.6%	8.4%	3.2%	5.01	4.65	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	169	98	28	100%	6.0	20.0%	11.6%	8.4%	3.2%	5.01	4.65	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		81	76	349	1449	277	193	53	94%	4.3	19.1%	13.3%	5.8%	3.7%	3.69	5.18	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	44	200	830	159	111	30	94%	4.3	19.1%	13.3%	5.8%	3.7%	3.69	5.18	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Lucas Gordon (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.17	19.2%	13.0%	3.0%	—	4.90	20.1%	8.6%	347	-0.27	—	—	—
Christian MacLeod L 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	16.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.312	4.60	19.5%	5.2%	212	+0.08	3.90	277	87
Samy Natera Jr. L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.29	30.4%	16.9%	124	-1.85	1.94	208	85
Dominic Perachi L 2023 · 5.19 FIP	22	SP-	5.19	17.5%	13.9%	3.3%	.324	3.80	17.1%	6.8%	186	-1.39	3.33	277	84
Sam Weatherly L 2021 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.0%	12.8%	2.5%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.07	4.07	209	81
Pete Hansen L 2023 · 4.18 FIP	23	SP	4.18	20.1%	9.9%	2.8%	.283	3.89	17.8%	10.2%	362	-0.29	3.77	475	81
Jeremy Wu-Yelland L 2021 · 4.44 FIP	22	SP	4.44	19.6%	14.6%	2.1%	.266	3.90	20.3%	3.7%	33	-0.54	2.93	175	81
Tyler Schweitzer L 2023 · 4.50 FIP	22	SP	4.50	19.6%	11.3%	3.0%	.293	4.16	16.8%	8.8%	318	-0.34	3.98	425	80
Shane Drohan L 2023 · 5.18 FIP	24	SP	5.18	19.3%	12.1%	4.0%	.308	3.49	24.7%	15.9%	190	-1.69	2.88	532	79
Miguel Cienfuegos L 2023 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP	5.12	13.6%	10.5%	3.4%	.257	4.56	14.1%	5.6%	242	-0.56	2.99	313	79
Brian Holmes L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	21.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.333	4.78	17.3%	8.0%	104	+0.46	3.60	205	79
Michel Gelabert L 2019 · 4.36 FIP	22	SP	4.36	18.7%	12.1%	2.4%	.248	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	107	78
Cameron Bishop L 2019 · 4.65 FIP	23	SP	4.65	16.6%	13.9%	2.2%	.316	3.42	23.8%	11.5%	66	-1.23	2.86	305	78
Jake Zokan L 2015 · 4.89 FIP	24	SP	4.89	12.5%	9.9%	2.9%	.292	1.79	24.2%	22.5%	37	-3.10	1.79	120	78
Doug Nikhazy L 2023 · 5.39 FIP	23	SP	5.39	21.9%	16.9%	3.6%	.304	4.73	19.6%	8.6%	256	-0.66	4.16	461	78
T.J. Sikkema L 2022 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	21.9%	9.0%	3.9%	.298	4.54	16.8%	7.5%	231	-0.01	3.57	300	77
Brett Adcock L 2019 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP	5.34	17.4%	13.6%	3.6%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	301	77
Bryan Radziewski L 2015 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	16.4%	10.5%	2.0%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.15	106	77
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	76
Matt Portland L 2018 · 4.64 FIP	24	SP-	4.64	17.4%	11.0%	2.9%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	3.61	143	76
James Paxton L 2015 · 4.22 FIP	26	SP	4.22	18.9%	9.4%	2.8%	.288	2.95	27.7%	21.7%	468	-1.27	2.46	924	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.7	106	19.9%	11.7%	1.22	4.99
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04