Hunter Owen — OGILVIE

Hunter Owen P Northwest Arkansas Naturals

Age 24 LHP 6'5" / 261 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.1 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION97 act + 10 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 106114vR 122

ERA4.69

FIP4.69

K%19.5%

BB%10.2%

K-BB%9.3%

ROS IP10

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 107 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$5M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL4545

CMD5050

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2031	Arb-1	$2M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-2	$2M	—	—	—
2033	Arb-3	$1M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$4M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	22	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	23	22	102	424	80	32	8	96%	4.4	14.5%	8.7%	5.8%	2.5%	4.24	4.32	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	23	22	102	424	80	32	8	96%	4.4	14.5%	8.7%	5.8%	2.5%	4.24	4.32	—
2024	22	A+ RAW	Quad Cities River Bandits	23	22	102	424	80	32	8	96%	4.4	18.9%	7.5%	11.3%	1.9%	4.24	3.49	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	22	19	95	413	107	40	10	86%	4.3	21.0%	10.7%	10.3%	2.7%	3.80	4.16	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	22	19	95	413	107	40	10	86%	4.3	21.0%	10.7%	10.3%	2.7%	3.80	4.16	—
2025	23	AA RAW	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	22	19	95	413	107	40	10	86%	4.3	25.9%	9.7%	16.2%	2.4%	3.80	3.48	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	25	17	97	441	112	41	17	68%	3.9	20.4%	10.3%	10.2%	4.8%	5.75	5.29	—
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	25	17	97	441	112	41	17	68%	3.9	20.4%	10.3%	10.2%	4.8%	5.75	5.29	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	AA RAW	KC	23	17	94	428	108	40	17	74%	4.1	25.2%	9.3%	15.9%	4.0%	5.94	4.33	—
2026	24	AAA RAW	KC	2	0	3	13	4	1	0	0%	1.5	30.8%	7.7%	23.1%	0.0%	0.00	1.48	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	KC	2	2	10	43	8	4	1	100%	5.1	19.5%	10.2%	9.3%	2.8%	4.69	4.69	+0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	KC	—	—	107	484	120	45	18	—	—	24.9%	9.4%	15.5%	3.8%	5.65	5.23	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	KC	21	21	124	521	106	50	15	100%	5.9	20.4%	9.6%	10.8%	2.8%	4.58	4.53	+0.5
2028	26	MLB MLE	KC	21	21	124	521	108	49	15	100%	5.9	20.8%	9.4%	11.4%	2.9%	4.51	4.48	+0.6
2029	27	MLB MLE	KC	20	20	122	513	107	48	15	100%	6.1	20.8%	9.4%	11.5%	2.9%	4.50	4.51	+0.6
2030	28	MLB MLE	KC	20	20	118	498	103	47	15	100%	5.9	20.7%	9.5%	11.3%	3.0%	4.55	4.59	+0.4
2031	29	MLB MLE	KC	19	19	113	476	98	46	15	100%	5.9	20.5%	9.7%	10.8%	3.2%	4.65	4.72	+0.2
2032	30	MLB MLE	KC	18	18	106	447	90	45	15	100%	5.9	20.1%	10.0%	10.1%	3.4%	4.80	4.90	0.0
2033	31	MLB MLE	KC	16	16	99	417	82	43	15	100%	6.2	19.7%	10.3%	9.4%	3.6%	4.98	5.10	-0.2
2027	25	MLB CTX	KC	9	9	54	228	46	22	6	100%	6.0	20.4%	9.6%	10.8%	2.6%	4.46	4.41	+0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	KC	14	14	83	350	73	33	9	100%	5.9	20.8%	9.4%	11.4%	2.6%	4.39	4.36	+0.4
2029	27	MLB CTX	KC	16	16	94	397	83	37	11	100%	5.9	20.8%	9.4%	11.5%	2.7%	4.38	4.39	+0.4
2030	28	MLB CTX	KC	16	16	99	418	87	40	12	100%	6.2	20.7%	9.5%	11.3%	2.8%	4.43	4.47	+0.4
2031	29	MLB CTX	KC	16	16	99	418	86	41	12	100%	6.2	20.5%	9.7%	10.8%	2.9%	4.52	4.59	+0.2
2032	30	MLB CTX	KC	16	16	95	401	81	40	12	100%	5.9	20.1%	10.0%	10.1%	3.1%	4.66	4.76	0.0
2033	31	MLB CTX	KC	15	15	90	380	75	39	13	100%	6.0	19.7%	10.3%	9.4%	3.3%	4.83	4.95	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		103	103	615	2598	531	252	75	100%	6.0	20.4%	9.7%	10.7%	2.9%	4.53	4.19	+5.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	173	82	24	100%	6.0	20.4%	9.7%	10.7%	2.9%	4.53	4.19	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		70	58	294	1278	238	126	43	83%	4.2	18.7%	9.9%	8.8%	3.3%	4.60	4.60	+2.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	40	200	870	162	86	29	83%	4.2	18.7%	9.9%	8.8%	3.3%	4.60	4.60	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Hunter Owen (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.69	19.5%	10.2%	2.8%	—	4.51	20.7%	11.2%	369	-0.18	—	—	—
Brian Holmes L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	21.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.333	4.78	17.3%	8.0%	104	+0.46	3.60	205	90
Dalton Sawyer L 2017 · 4.11 FIP	23	SP-	4.11	20.6%	9.4%	2.8%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	160	88
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP-	5.03	16.0%	10.1%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	5.03	116	86
A.J. Block L 2021 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	22.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.262	5.74	20.1%	8.4%	51	+2.02	3.65	203	86
Bryan Radziewski L 2015 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	16.4%	10.5%	2.0%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.15	106	85
Parker Messick L 2023 · 3.91 FIP	22	SP	3.91	19.8%	8.7%	2.5%	.296	3.21	24.7%	17.0%	444	-0.70	3.02	566	84
Chipper Smith L 2015 · 3.81 FIP	25	SP-	3.81	15.6%	9.5%	1.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	109	83
Danny Duffy L 2015 · 4.29 FIP	26	SP-	4.29	17.3%	9.0%	2.8%	.292	3.96	22.7%	15.3%	481	-0.33	3.29	915	82
Pete Hansen L 2023 · 4.18 FIP	23	SP	4.18	20.1%	9.9%	2.8%	.283	3.89	17.8%	10.2%	362	-0.29	3.77	475	82
John Michael Bertrand L 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	14.8%	8.1%	1.5%	.294	4.33	14.1%	5.2%	345	+0.62	3.71	463	81
Shane Drohan L 2023 · 5.18 FIP	24	SP	5.18	19.3%	12.1%	4.0%	.308	3.49	24.7%	15.9%	190	-1.69	2.88	532	81
Scott DeCecco L 2015 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP-	4.55	14.5%	11.5%	2.2%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.55	125	80
Brandon Schaeffer L 2023 · 4.07 FIP	23	SP	4.07	16.4%	8.5%	2.3%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	4.07	134	80
Jake McSteen L 2021 · 5.05 FIP	25	SP-	5.05	16.8%	7.3%	4.5%	.322	5.18	19.2%	12.5%	172	+0.13	2.22	286	80
Austin Krob L 2023 · 3.59 FIP	23	SP	3.59	19.9%	10.7%	1.5%	.329	4.00	17.4%	7.1%	171	+0.41	3.59	280	80
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	80
Jimmy Robbins L 2022 · 3.85 FIP	24	SP-	3.85	23.3%	11.3%	2.3%	.286	4.83	17.9%	2.7%	99	+0.98	3.85	176	79
Justin Marks L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	27	SP-	4.60	15.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.323	3.88	19.0%	9.1%	216	-0.72	3.83	324	79
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	79
Adalberto Mejía L 2017 · 3.96 FIP	24	SP	3.96	18.7%	8.3%	2.5%	.313	3.67	19.5%	9.3%	117	-0.29	3.30	427	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.6	116	20.3%	9.7%	1.18	4.65
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01