Hunter Owen
P
Northwest Arkansas Naturals
+0.8
WAR
Age 24
LHP
6'5" / 261 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 1.3 · 2029
ERA4.52
FIP4.52
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%20.9%
BB%9.8%
K-BB%11.1%
IP97
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.3peak
2029
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Quad Cities River Bandits | 23 | 22 | 102 | 424 | 80 | 32 | 8 | 14.5% | 8.7% | 2.5% | 4.24 | 4.33 | +1.1 |
| 2025 | 23 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | 22 | 19 | 95 | 413 | 107 | 40 | 10 | 21.0% | 10.7% | 2.7% | 3.80 | 4.14 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | 1 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 1 | — | — | — | 6.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | KC | 18 | 18 | 97 | 410 | 86 | 40 | 12 | 20.9% | 9.8% | 2.8% | 4.52 | 4.52 | +0.8 |
| 2026 Total | 24 | MLB | KC | — | — | 100 | 421 | 88 | 40 | 13 | 20.8% | 9.6% | 3.0% | 4.56 | 4.38 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | KC | 20 | 20 | 110 | 466 | 99 | 43 | 13 | 21.3% | 9.3% | 2.8% | 4.44 | 4.41 | +1.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | KC | 21 | 21 | 117 | 495 | 107 | 45 | 14 | 21.6% | 9.1% | 2.9% | 4.40 | 4.38 | +1.2 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | KC | 22 | 22 | 120 | 508 | 110 | 46 | 15 | 21.6% | 9.1% | 2.9% | 4.38 | 4.38 | +1.3 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | KC | 22 | 22 | 121 | 509 | 110 | 46 | 15 | 21.6% | 9.1% | 2.9% | 4.39 | 4.40 | +1.2 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | KC | 21 | 21 | 118 | 498 | 107 | 46 | 15 | 21.5% | 9.2% | 3.0% | 4.42 | 4.45 | +1.1 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | KC | 21 | 21 | 114 | 483 | 103 | 45 | 15 | 21.3% | 9.3% | 3.0% | 4.47 | 4.51 | +1.0 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | KC | 20 | 20 | 110 | 466 | 98 | 44 | 14 | 21.0% | 9.4% | 3.1% | 4.54 | 4.59 | +0.9 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | KC | 19 | 19 | 106 | 448 | 93 | 43 | 14 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 3.2% | 4.62 | 4.67 | +0.8 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | KC | 18 | 18 | 101 | 427 | 87 | 42 | 14 | 20.5% | 9.7% | 3.3% | 4.71 | 4.77 | +0.6 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | KC | 17 | 17 | 96 | 406 | 82 | 40 | 14 | 20.1% | 9.9% | 3.4% | 4.81 | 4.88 | +0.4 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | KC | 16 | 16 | 91 | 383 | 75 | 39 | 13 | 19.7% | 10.1% | 3.5% | 4.92 | 5.00 | +0.2 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | KC | 15 | 15 | 85 | 358 | 69 | 37 | 13 | 19.3% | 10.4% | 3.6% | 5.05 | 5.13 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 46 | 41 | 200 | 848 | 150 | 81 | 23 | 17.7% | 9.5% | 2.7% | 4.06 | 4.27 | +2.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 41 | 200 | 849 | 150 | 81 | 23 | 17.7% | 9.5% | 2.7% | 4.06 | 4.27 | +2.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Hunter Owen (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.52 | 20.9% | 9.8% | 2.8% | — | 4.39 | 21.5% | 12.4% | 348 | -0.13 | — | — | — |
| Brian Holmes L 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.31 | 21.0% | 9.9% | 3.1% | .333 | 4.77 | 17.3% | 8.0% | 104 | +0.46 | 3.58 | 205 | 94 |
| Hayden Wynja L 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.73 | 20.5% | 10.5% | 3.7% | .315 | 4.79 | 18.0% | 7.5% | 56 | +0.06 | 4.73 | 154 | 93 |
| Garrett Schoenle L 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.62 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 3.5% | .263 | 4.28 | 21.0% | 9.5% | 219 | -0.34 | 2.32 | 304 | 92 |
| A.J. Block L 2025 · 3.73 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.73 | 22.8% | 10.0% | 2.4% | .262 | 5.75 | 20.1% | 8.4% | 51 | +2.02 | 3.65 | 203 | 91 |
| Dalton Sawyer L 2025 · 4.07 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.07 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.07 | 160 | 90 |
| Jonathan Santucci L 2024 · 3.63 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.63 | 22.6% | 9.6% | 2.2% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 118 | 87 |
| David Parkinson L 2025 · 3.69 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.69 | 19.6% | 8.8% | 2.1% | .303 | 5.45 | 16.0% | 8.2% | 78 | +1.76 | 3.06 | 517 | 86 |
| Charlie McDaniel L 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.80 | 17.3% | 7.1% | 2.3% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 100 | 86 |
| Nick Maronde L 2027 · 3.82 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.82 | 18.3% | 8.9% | 2.1% | .359 | 3.62 | 16.3% | 8.9% | 48 | -0.20 | 3.62 | 133 | 86 |
| Jackson Kent L 2024 · 4.40 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.40 | 20.2% | 8.5% | 3.5% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.40 | 123 | 86 |
| Jack Choate L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.27 | 22.4% | 12.6% | 2.7% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.70 | 282 | 85 |
| Juan Pablo Oramas L 2027 · 3.99 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.99 | 16.5% | 8.6% | 2.2% | .313 | 3.83 | 17.4% | 6.8% | 186 | -0.16 | 3.41 | 440 | 85 |
| Luke Heimlich L 2025 · 4.21 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.21 | 18.2% | 7.6% | 3.1% | .350 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 118 | 85 |
| Sam Garcia L 2025 · 5.14 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.14 | 18.5% | 12.7% | 3.6% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.14 | 101 | 85 |
| Will Dion L 2026 · 5.16 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.16 | 19.7% | 10.9% | 4.3% | .309 | 3.76 | 19.5% | 10.5% | 99 | -1.40 | 3.39 | 448 | 84 |
| Bryan Radziewski L 2025 · 4.15 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.15 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 2.0% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 106 | 84 |
| Adalberto Mejía L 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.87 | 18.7% | 8.3% | 2.4% | .313 | 3.65 | 19.5% | 9.3% | 117 | -0.22 | 3.26 | 427 | 83 |
| Luis Leroy Cruz L 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.02 | 16.0% | 10.1% | 3.6% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.02 | 116 | 83 |
| Carson Teel L 2025 · 3.43 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.43 | 17.2% | 8.8% | 1.2% | .292 | 4.88 | 16.9% | 10.0% | 144 | +1.45 | 3.43 | 248 | 83 |
| Brad Hand L 2027 · 3.96 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.96 | 16.4% | 7.6% | 2.4% | .326 | 2.69 | 32.9% | 25.0% | 241 | -1.27 | 0.84 | 577 | 83 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +1.3 | $11M | +$11M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.2 | $11M | +$10M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +1.1 | $10M | +$9M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +1.0 | $10M | +$8M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +0.9 | $4M | +$1M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +0.8 | $4M | +$0.6M |
| Totals | $11M | $50M | +$39M | ||