Hunter Owen

P Northwest Arkansas Naturals

Age 25 LHP 6'5" / 261 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.5 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

OGV OFP35OGV rank#779ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	A+KC	23	22	102	4.24	3.49	18.9%	7.5%	—	K 14.5% · BB 8.7% · FIP 4.32
2025	23	AANorthwest Ark…	22	19	95	3.80	3.48	25.9%	9.7%	—	K 21.0% · BB 10.7% · FIP 4.16
2026	24	MIX2 levels	26	17	98	5.97	4.47	25.2%	9.4%	—	K 20.4% · BB 10.3% · FIP 5.29
2027PROJ	25	MLBKC	1	1	2	4.98	4.98	20.3%	10.4%	0.0
2028PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBKC	7	7	44	4.75	4.74	20.8%	10.1%	0.3
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBKC	10	10	58	4.72	4.73	20.8%	10.0%	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$0.2M2033Ext$5M2034Ext$7M

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Control45Command50

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.6 / P90 3.6, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 86%

CompsLuis Leroy Cruz (age 24) · Dalton Sawyer (age 23) · Hayden Mullins (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112120vR 128

ERA4.98

FIP4.98

K%20.3%

BB%10.4%

K-BB%9.9%

Proj IP122

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 122 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$9M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL4545

CMD5050

K†5050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.3M
2032	Arb-1	$0.2M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.1M
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$4M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	22	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	23	22	102	424	80	32	8	96%	4.4	14.5%	8.7%	5.8%	2.5%	4.24	4.32	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	23	22	102	424	80	32	8	96%	4.4	14.5%	8.7%	5.8%	2.5%	4.24	4.32	—
2024	22	A+ RAW	Quad Cities River Bandits	23	22	102	424	80	32	8	96%	4.4	18.9%	7.5%	11.3%	1.9%	4.24	3.49	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	22	19	95	413	107	40	10	86%	4.3	21.0%	10.7%	10.3%	2.7%	3.80	4.16	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	22	19	95	413	107	40	10	86%	4.3	21.0%	10.7%	10.3%	2.7%	3.80	4.16	—
2025	23	AA RAW	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	22	19	95	413	107	40	10	86%	4.3	25.9%	9.7%	16.2%	2.4%	3.80	3.48	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	17	98	449	113	42	18	65%	3.8	20.4%	10.3%	10.2%	4.8%	5.97	5.29	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	17	98	449	113	42	18	65%	3.8	20.4%	10.3%	10.2%	4.8%	5.97	5.29	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	17	98	449	113	42	18	65%	3.8	25.2%	9.4%	15.8%	4.0%	5.97	4.47	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	KC	1	1	2	8	2	1	0	100%	2.0	20.3%	10.4%	9.9%	3.5%	4.98	4.98	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	KC	17	17	101	426	88	43	15	100%	5.9	20.8%	10.1%	10.7%	3.4%	4.89	4.88	+0.6
2029	27	MLB MLE	KC	15	15	91	384	80	38	13	100%	6.1	20.8%	10.0%	10.8%	3.4%	4.86	4.87	+0.6
2030	28	MLB MLE	KC	14	14	85	358	74	36	13	100%	6.0	20.8%	10.0%	10.7%	3.5%	4.88	4.92	+0.5
2031	29	MLB MLE	KC	13	13	78	330	68	34	12	100%	6.0	20.6%	10.2%	10.4%	3.6%	4.97	5.04	+0.3
2032	30	MLB MLE	KC	12	12	70	298	60	31	11	100%	5.9	20.2%	10.5%	9.7%	3.8%	5.12	5.21	+0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	KC	7	7	44	186	39	19	6	100%	6.3	20.8%	10.1%	10.7%	3.2%	4.75	4.74	+0.3
2029	27	MLB CTX	KC	10	10	58	245	51	24	8	100%	5.8	20.8%	10.0%	10.8%	3.2%	4.72	4.73	+0.4
2030	28	MLB CTX	KC	11	11	64	270	56	27	9	100%	5.8	20.8%	10.0%	10.7%	3.2%	4.74	4.78	+0.4
2031	29	MLB CTX	KC	11	11	64	270	56	28	9	100%	5.8	20.6%	10.2%	10.4%	3.4%	4.82	4.89	+0.3
2032	30	MLB CTX	KC	10	10	61	258	52	27	9	100%	6.1	20.2%	10.5%	9.7%	3.6%	4.96	5.05	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		48	48	290	1225	253	125	41	100%	6.0	20.6%	10.2%	10.5%	3.3%	4.80	4.46	+3.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	174	86	28	100%	6.0	20.6%	10.2%	10.5%	3.3%	4.80	4.46	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		71	58	295	1286	240	127	43	82%	4.2	18.7%	9.9%	8.8%	3.3%	4.67	4.61	+2.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	39	200	873	163	86	29	82%	4.2	18.7%	9.9%	8.8%	3.3%	4.67	4.61	+1.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 94 IPFIP 4.33 → 5.29 (+0.96)K% 25.2% → 20.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.23%	—	×0.810	20.44%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.35%	—	×1.100	10.28%
HR / BF /BF	3.97%	÷1.000	×1.200	4.77%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.33 → 5.29, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 4 IPFIP 4.91 → 5.33 (+0.42)K% 23.8% → 20.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.81%	—	×0.860	20.48%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.52%	—	×0.900	8.57%
HR / BF /BF	4.76%	÷1.000	×1.100	5.24%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.91 → 5.33, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 95 IPFIP 3.47 → 4.16 (+0.69)K% 25.9% → 21.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.91%	—	×0.810	20.99%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.69%	—	×1.100	10.65%
HR / BF /BF	2.42%	÷1.077	×1.200	2.70%

Result: FIP 3.47 → 4.16, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Quad Cities River Bandits · 102 IPFIP 3.50 → 4.32 (+0.82)K% 18.9% → 14.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.87%	—	×0.770	14.53%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.55%	—	×1.150	8.68%
HR / BF /BF	1.89%	÷0.959	×1.250	2.46%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 92).

Result: FIP 3.50 → 4.32, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Hunter Owen (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.98	20.3%	10.4%	3.5%	—	4.89	20.8%	10.7%	276	-0.09	—	—	—
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP-	5.03	16.0%	10.1%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	5.03	116	85
Dalton Sawyer L 2017 · 4.11 FIP	23	SP-	4.11	20.6%	9.4%	2.8%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	160	85
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	83
Ken Waldichuk L 2023 · 5.01 FIP	25	SP-	5.01	20.7%	11.0%	4.1%	.303	5.78	21.8%	6.9%	51	+0.77	3.51	432	82
Jake McSteen L 2021 · 5.05 FIP	25	SP-	5.05	16.8%	7.3%	4.5%	.322	5.18	19.2%	12.5%	172	+0.13	2.22	286	82
Dylan Carmouche L 2024 · 4.35 FIP	22	SP	4.35	19.0%	11.6%	2.5%	.332	5.21	16.7%	6.8%	116	+0.86	4.35	239	81
Justin Marks L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	27	SP-	4.60	15.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.323	3.88	19.0%	9.1%	216	-0.72	3.83	324	80
Bryan Radziewski L 2015 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	16.4%	10.5%	2.0%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.15	106	80
Chipper Smith L 2015 · 3.81 FIP	25	SP-	3.81	15.6%	9.5%	1.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	109	79
Will Dion L 2024 · 4.97 FIP	24	SP	4.97	19.3%	9.4%	4.2%	.309	3.39	23.5%	16.3%	186	-1.58	3.14	535	79
Danny Wirchansky L 2024 · 4.47 FIP	27	SP-	4.47	16.2%	7.4%	3.3%	.246	5.88	13.0%	0.2%	68	+1.41	4.47	179	79
Tate Kuehner L 2024 · 4.08 FIP	23	SP	4.08	20.5%	13.9%	1.7%	.275	3.85	20.3%	7.9%	164	-0.23	3.83	268	78
Scott DeCecco L 2015 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP-	4.55	14.5%	11.5%	2.2%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.55	125	77
Avery Weems L 2022 · 4.87 FIP	25	SP-	4.87	21.3%	8.6%	4.5%	.323	5.13	20.5%	12.3%	38	+0.26	2.46	227	77
Anthony Veneziano L 2023 · 4.21 FIP	25	SP	4.21	19.4%	8.0%	3.1%	.292	4.51	17.5%	8.3%	190	+0.30	4.18	539	76
Amir Garrett L 2017 · 5.33 FIP	25	SP	5.33	18.7%	10.1%	4.6%	.302	3.60	30.3%	19.5%	137	-1.73	3.06	712	76
Jaylen Nowlin L 2024 · 5.15 FIP	23	SP-	5.15	18.7%	12.6%	3.7%	.299	4.77	21.7%	3.2%	100	-0.38	3.45	372	76
Brandon Schaeffer L 2023 · 4.07 FIP	23	SP	4.07	16.4%	8.5%	2.3%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	4.07	134	76
Juan Pablo Oramas L 2015 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	16.5%	8.6%	2.2%	.313	3.87	17.4%	6.8%	186	-0.12	3.46	440	76
Joe Whitman L 2024 · 3.89 FIP	22	SP	3.89	18.6%	9.9%	2.0%	.303	3.65	19.8%	11.7%	252	-0.24	3.51	355	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.7	91	20.6%	10.2%	1.37	4.94
Vicente Palacios ('87-'00, 1 WAR*)	1.9	62	21.0%*	10.0%*	1.41*	4.86*
Scott Sanders ('99)	3.4	97	21.2%	9.3%	1.23	4.86
Wes Gardner ('84-'91, -0 WAR*)	2.3	78	23.2%*	10.4%*	1.24*	5.03*
Mickey Mahler ('77-'86, 0 WAR*)	2.0	81	20.4%*	10.3%*	1.20*	4.87*
Jake Faria ('23)	1.0	68	20.9%	10.3%	1.32	4.87
Joey Wentz ('25)	1.5	76	21.1%	9.9%	1.36	5.57