Hunter Owen
P
Northwest Arkansas Naturals
Age 24
LHP
6'5" / 261 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.9 · 2028
2026 ROS PROJECTION51 act + 73 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 107116vR 125
ERA4.68
FIP4.68
K%19.5%
BB%10.3%
K-BB%9.2%
ROS IP73
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 124 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Quad Cities River Bandits | 23 | 22 | 102 | 424 | 80 | 32 | 8 | 96% | 4.4 | 14.5% | 8.7% | 5.8% | 2.6% | 4.24 | 4.38 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Quad Cities River Bandits | 23 | 22 | 102 | 424 | 80 | 32 | 8 | 96% | 4.4 | 18.9% | 7.5% | 11.3% | 1.9% | 4.24 | 3.49 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | 22 | 19 | 95 | 413 | 107 | 40 | 10 | 86% | 4.3 | 21.0% | 10.7% | 10.3% | 2.5% | 3.80 | 4.06 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | 22 | 19 | 95 | 413 | 107 | 40 | 10 | 86% | 4.3 | 25.9% | 9.7% | 16.2% | 2.4% | 3.80 | 3.48 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | 15 | 9 | 51 | 246 | 46 | 23 | 13 | 60% | 3.4 | 15.1% | 10.3% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 8.65 | 6.60 | -1.2 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | KC | 13 | 13 | 73 | 310 | 61 | 32 | 9 | 100% | 5.6 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 2.8% | 4.68 | 4.68 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | KC | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 2.7% | 4.63 | 4.63 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | KC | — | — | 124 | 556 | 107 | 55 | 22 | — | — | 19.2% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 3.9% | 6.31 | 5.47 | -0.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | KC | — | — | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 19.5% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 2.7% | 4.63 | 4.25 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | KC | 21 | 21 | 124 | 521 | 106 | 50 | 15 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.4% | 9.6% | 10.7% | 2.8% | 4.57 | 4.52 | +1.3 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | KC | 21 | 21 | 124 | 521 | 108 | 49 | 15 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.8% | 9.4% | 11.3% | 2.8% | 4.50 | 4.47 | +1.3 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | KC | 20 | 20 | 122 | 513 | 107 | 48 | 15 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.8% | 9.4% | 11.4% | 2.9% | 4.50 | 4.50 | +1.3 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | KC | 20 | 20 | 118 | 498 | 103 | 48 | 15 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.7% | 9.6% | 11.2% | 3.0% | 4.54 | 4.58 | +1.1 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | KC | 19 | 19 | 113 | 476 | 98 | 47 | 15 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.5% | 9.8% | 10.7% | 3.1% | 4.64 | 4.71 | +0.9 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | KC | 9 | 9 | 54 | 228 | 46 | 22 | 6 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.4% | 9.6% | 10.7% | 2.7% | 4.52 | 4.47 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | KC | 14 | 14 | 83 | 350 | 73 | 33 | 10 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.8% | 9.4% | 11.3% | 2.7% | 4.45 | 4.42 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | KC | 16 | 16 | 94 | 397 | 83 | 37 | 11 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.8% | 9.4% | 11.4% | 2.8% | 4.45 | 4.45 | +0.9 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | KC | 16 | 16 | 99 | 418 | 87 | 40 | 12 | 100% | 6.2 | 20.7% | 9.6% | 11.2% | 2.9% | 4.49 | 4.53 | +1.0 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | KC | 16 | 16 | 99 | 418 | 86 | 41 | 13 | 100% | 6.2 | 20.5% | 9.8% | 10.7% | 3.0% | 4.58 | 4.65 | +0.8 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 72 | 72 | 431 | 1819 | 376 | 174 | 52 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.7% | 9.6% | 11.1% | 2.8% | 4.50 | 4.13 | +6.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 175 | 81 | 24 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.7% | 9.6% | 11.1% | 2.8% | 4.50 | 4.13 | +3.0 | ||
| Career | — | 60 | 50 | 248 | 1083 | 186 | 106 | 37 | 83% | 4.1 | 17.1% | 9.8% | 7.3% | 3.4% | 4.98 | 4.76 | +1.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 48 | 40 | 200 | 875 | 150 | 86 | 30 | 83% | 4.1 | 17.1% | 9.8% | 7.3% | 3.4% | 4.98 | 4.76 | +1.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Hunter Owen (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.68 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 2.8% | — | 4.50 | 20.7% | 11.1% | 369 | -0.18 | — | — | — |
| Brian Holmes L 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.25 | 21.0% | 9.9% | 3.0% | .333 | 4.75 | 17.3% | 8.0% | 104 | +0.50 | 3.42 | 205 | 89 |
| Luis Leroy Cruz L 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.93 | 16.0% | 10.1% | 3.5% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.93 | 116 | 87 |
| Dalton Sawyer L 2025 · 3.83 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.83 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 2.3% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 160 | 86 |
| A.J. Block L 2025 · 3.68 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.68 | 22.8% | 10.0% | 2.3% | .262 | 5.86 | 20.1% | 8.4% | 51 | +2.18 | 3.64 | 203 | 85 |
| Bryan Radziewski L 2025 · 4.19 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.19 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 2.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.19 | 106 | 85 |
| Chipper Smith L 2027 · 3.83 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.83 | 15.6% | 9.5% | 1.5% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 109 | 84 |
| Ryan Ramsey L 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.31 | 18.5% | 11.4% | 2.4% | .326 | 5.09 | 17.5% | 5.5% | 76 | +0.78 | 2.69 | 318 | 82 |
| Jack Choate L 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.11 | 22.4% | 12.6% | 2.4% | .317 | 3.84 | 24.2% | 6.1% | 32 | -0.27 | 2.75 | 315 | 82 |
| Danny Duffy L 2028 · 4.27 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.27 | 17.3% | 9.0% | 2.7% | .292 | 3.94 | 22.7% | 15.3% | 481 | -0.33 | 3.29 | 915 | 82 |
| Will Dion L 2026 · 5.01 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.01 | 19.7% | 10.9% | 4.0% | .309 | 3.25 | 22.6% | 14.9% | 148 | -1.76 | 2.44 | 496 | 82 |
| John Michael Bertrand L 2027 · 3.72 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.72 | 14.8% | 8.1% | 1.5% | .294 | 4.27 | 14.3% | 5.0% | 345 | +0.55 | 3.72 | 463 | 81 |
| Scott DeCecco L 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.58 | 14.5% | 11.5% | 2.3% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.58 | 125 | 81 |
| Trey Dombroski L 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.75 | 20.1% | 11.5% | 1.6% | .285 | 5.21 | 17.5% | 3.9% | 66 | +1.46 | 3.75 | 395 | 81 |
| Jimmy Robbins L 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.89 | 23.3% | 11.3% | 2.4% | .286 | 4.89 | 18.1% | 2.5% | 99 | +1.00 | 3.89 | 176 | 80 |
| Ryan Magdic L 2027 · 3.64 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.64 | 18.3% | 6.7% | 2.3% | .314 | 3.18 | 21.5% | 16.7% | 54 | -0.46 | 3.18 | 150 | 80 |
| Justin Marks L 2029 · 4.56 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.56 | 15.4% | 10.5% | 2.6% | .323 | 3.78 | 19.0% | 9.1% | 216 | -0.78 | 3.75 | 324 | 80 |
| Brandon Schaeffer L 2025 · 4.08 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.08 | 16.4% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .296 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.08 | 134 | 79 |
| Austin Krob L 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.80 | 18.2% | 9.0% | 2.0% | .333 | 4.89 | 16.4% | 0.1% | 47 | +1.09 | 3.73 | 280 | 78 |
| Adalberto Mejía L 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.96 | 18.7% | 8.3% | 2.5% | .313 | 3.76 | 19.5% | 9.3% | 117 | -0.20 | 3.39 | 427 | 78 |
| Hayden Wynja L 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.84 | 20.5% | 10.5% | 3.9% | .315 | 4.77 | 18.0% | 7.5% | 56 | -0.07 | 4.77 | 154 | 78 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 120 | 20.4% | 9.7% | 1.12 | 4.57 |
| Julio Teheran ('23) | 7 | 147 | 20.4% | 8.8% | 1.34 | 4.12 |
| Jimmy Nelson ('21) | 5 | 117 | 22.2% | 9.1% | 0.97 | 4.08 |
| Jaime García ('18) | 4 | 135 | 19.6% | 8.5% | 1.05 | 4.23 |
| Danny Duffy ('21) | 7 | 124 | 21.7% | 8.1% | 1.20 | 4.04 |
| Zack Godley ('20) | 6 | 94 | 22.1% | 9.5% | 1.13 | 4.86 |
| Félix Hernández ('19) | 5 | 134 | 20.0% | 8.1% | 1.39 | 4.48 |