Kyle Carr

P Somerset Patriots

Age 25 LHP 6'1" / 175 lbs AA peak 0.5 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	A+NYY	24	24	104	4.76	3.48	21.0%	12.2%	—	K 16.2% · BB 14.0% · FIP 4.24
2025	23	MIX2 levels	25	25	133	2.64	3.36	21.7%	10.2%	—	K 16.8% · BB 11.7% · FIP 4.19
2026	24	MIX2 levels	21	20	90	4.58	4.25	25.8%	10.8%	—	K 21.2% · BB 11.1% · FIP 4.88
2027PROJ	25	MLBNYY	1	1	1	5.22	5.22	19.1%	12.4%	0.0
2028PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBNYY	7	7	41	5.11	5.10	19.6%	11.9%	0.1
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBNYY	9	9	53	5.06	5.07	19.8%	11.7%	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 4.3, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 84%

CompsBrandon Claussen (age 25) · David Purcey (age 26) · Miguel Cienfuegos (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116124vR 132

ERA5.22

FIP5.22

K%19.1%

BB%12.4%

K-BB%6.6%

Proj IP73

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 73 IP

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	22	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	24	24	104	452	95	55	5	100%	4.3	16.2%	14.0%	2.2%	1.3%	4.76	4.24	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	24	24	104	452	95	55	5	100%	4.3	16.2%	14.0%	2.2%	1.3%	4.76	4.24	—
2024	22	A+ RAW	Hudson Valley Renegades	24	24	104	452	95	55	5	100%	4.3	21.0%	12.2%	8.8%	1.1%	4.76	3.48	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	133	538	117	55	8	100%	5.3	16.8%	11.7%	5.2%	1.9%	2.64	4.19	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	133	538	117	55	8	100%	5.3	16.8%	11.7%	5.2%	1.9%	2.64	4.19	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	133	538	117	55	8	100%	5.3	21.7%	10.2%	11.5%	1.5%	2.64	3.36	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	20	90	407	105	44	14	95%	4.3	21.2%	11.1%	10.1%	4.0%	4.58	4.88	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	20	90	407	105	44	14	95%	4.3	21.2%	11.1%	10.1%	4.0%	4.58	4.88	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	20	90	407	105	44	14	95%	4.3	25.8%	10.8%	15.0%	3.4%	4.58	4.25	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	NYY	1	1	1	4	1	1	0	100%	1.0	19.1%	12.4%	6.6%	3.2%	5.22	5.22	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	NYY	16	16	94	395	77	47	13	100%	5.8	19.6%	11.9%	7.7%	3.2%	5.11	5.10	+0.3
2029	27	MLB MLE	NYY	14	14	84	353	70	41	11	100%	6.0	19.8%	11.7%	8.1%	3.2%	5.06	5.07	+0.3
2030	28	MLB MLE	NYY	13	13	78	327	65	38	11	100%	6.0	19.7%	11.6%	8.1%	3.3%	5.08	5.12	+0.2
2031	29	MLB MLE	NYY	12	12	72	302	59	35	11	100%	6.0	19.6%	11.8%	7.8%	3.5%	5.16	5.23	+0.1
2032	30	MLB MLE	NYY	11	11	65	273	52	33	10	100%	5.9	19.2%	12.0%	7.2%	3.7%	5.31	5.40	0.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	NYY	7	7	41	173	34	21	6	100%	5.9	19.6%	11.9%	7.7%	3.2%	5.11	5.10	+0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	NYY	9	9	53	224	44	26	7	100%	5.9	19.8%	11.7%	8.1%	3.2%	5.06	5.07	+0.2
2030	28	MLB CTX	NYY	10	10	59	249	49	29	8	100%	5.9	19.7%	11.6%	8.1%	3.3%	5.08	5.12	+0.2
2031	29	MLB CTX	NYY	10	10	58	245	48	29	9	100%	5.8	19.6%	11.8%	7.8%	3.5%	5.16	5.23	+0.1
2032	30	MLB CTX	NYY	9	9	55	232	45	28	9	100%	6.1	19.2%	12.0%	7.2%	3.7%	5.31	5.40	0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		44	44	266	1125	220	133	38	100%	6.1	19.6%	11.8%	7.8%	3.4%	5.15	4.81	+1.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	165	100	29	100%	6.0	19.6%	11.8%	7.8%	3.4%	5.15	4.81	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		70	69	327	1397	250	171	32	99%	4.7	17.9%	12.2%	5.6%	2.3%	3.85	4.41	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		43	42	200	854	153	105	20	99%	4.7	17.9%	12.2%	5.6%	2.3%	3.85	4.41	+0.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AASomerset Patriots · 67 IPFIP 3.19 → 4.01 (+0.83)K% 28.0% → 22.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.04%	—	×0.810	22.71%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.12%	—	×1.100	10.03%
HR / BF /BF	2.36%	÷1.000	×1.200	2.84%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.19 → 4.01, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 24 IPFIP 6.83 → 7.21 (+0.39)K% 19.8% → 17.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.82%	—	×0.860	17.05%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.32%	—	×0.900	13.78%
HR / BF /BF	6.31%	÷1.000	×1.100	6.94%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 6.83 → 7.21, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Hudson Valley Renegades · 119 IPFIP 3.20 → 4.00 (+0.81)K% 21.7% → 16.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.71%	—	×0.770	16.72%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.81%	—	×1.150	11.28%
HR / BF /BF	1.25%	÷0.969	×1.250	1.62%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 94).

Result: FIP 3.20 → 4.00, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AASomerset Patriots · 14 IPFIP 4.82 → 5.65 (+0.83)K% 22.0% → 17.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.03%	—	×0.810	17.85%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.56%	—	×1.100	14.92%
HR / BF /BF	3.39%	÷1.030	×1.200	3.95%

Result: FIP 4.82 → 5.65, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Hudson Valley Renegades · 104 IPFIP 3.47 → 4.24 (+0.77)K% 21.0% → 16.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.02%	—	×0.770	16.18%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.17%	—	×1.150	13.99%
HR / BF /BF	1.11%	÷1.032	×1.250	1.34%

Result: FIP 3.47 → 4.24, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kyle Carr (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.2%	—	5.10	19.7%	7.9%	255	-0.12	—	—	—
Brandon Claussen L 2004 · 4.80 FIP	25	SP	4.80	14.4%	10.5%	2.9%	.314	4.56	16.5%	9.2%	244	-0.24	4.41	310	84
David Purcey L 2008 · 4.39 FIP	26	SP	4.39	20.1%	10.0%	3.1%	.301	4.39	17.9%	5.0%	116	-0.00	3.60	206	82
Miguel Cienfuegos L 2023 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP	5.12	13.6%	10.5%	3.4%	.257	4.54	14.3%	5.8%	242	-0.58	2.95	313	81
Austin Emener L 2024 · 4.86 FIP	22	SP	4.86	19.4%	9.3%	4.1%	.306	5.38	21.4%	5.6%	63	+0.52	4.86	123	80
Christian MacLeod L 2024 · 4.77 FIP	24	SP	4.77	21.5%	13.6%	3.2%	.269	4.50	18.0%	3.0%	128	-0.27	3.88	280	79
Tate Kuehner L 2024 · 4.08 FIP	23	SP	4.08	20.5%	13.9%	1.7%	.275	3.85	20.3%	7.9%	164	-0.23	3.83	268	79
Jimmy Robbins L 2023 · 4.69 FIP	25	SP-	4.69	17.8%	15.2%	2.1%	.290	5.73	19.6%	3.8%	13	+1.04	3.85	176	78
Scott Downs L 2000 · 4.63 FIP	24	SP	4.63	14.3%	8.8%	2.9%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	2.68	748	78
Nate Robertson L 2003 · 4.66 FIP	25	SP	4.66	16.3%	10.3%	3.0%	.343	4.54	16.1%	8.6%	602	-0.12	4.13	1,144	77
Sean West L 2009 · 4.32 FIP	23	SP	4.32	15.0%	9.4%	2.4%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	103	77
Dylan Carmouche L 2024 · 4.35 FIP	22	SP	4.35	19.0%	11.6%	2.5%	.332	5.21	16.7%	6.8%	116	+0.86	4.35	239	77
Matt Lujan L 2015 · 4.06 FIP	26	SP	4.06	15.5%	10.0%	1.8%	.326	4.84	16.0%	7.6%	119	+0.78	4.06	227	77
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	77
Drew Dowd L 2024 · 4.36 FIP	22	SP	4.36	16.1%	11.7%	2.1%	.280	3.13	24.9%	16.0%	55	-1.23	3.13	166	77
Daniel Camarena L 2018 · 4.32 FIP	25	SP	4.32	15.9%	9.7%	2.4%	.338	4.71	16.9%	10.5%	187	+0.39	3.76	674	77
Caden Grice L 2024 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP	4.33	23.1%	15.7%	2.2%	.282	5.05	17.9%	2.3%	83	+0.72	4.33	133	76
Grant Watson L 2017 · 4.70 FIP	24	SP-	4.70	16.4%	10.3%	3.0%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	2.59	180	76
Michael O'Connor L 2006 · 4.93 FIP	25	SP	4.93	13.0%	8.8%	3.3%	.238	—	—	—	—	—	4.93	105	76
Hunter Owen L 2024 · 4.32 FIP	22	SP	4.32	14.5%	8.7%	2.5%	.270	4.72	20.7%	10.2%	189	+0.40	4.16	291	76
Matt Portland L 2018 · 4.64 FIP	24	SP-	4.64	17.4%	11.0%	2.9%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	3.61	143	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.3	77	19.5%	11.9%	1.30	5.15
Paul Spoljaric ('00)	1.4	69	22.1%	12.9%	1.33	5.52
Justin Miller ('10)	1.9	63	18.1%	11.3%	1.17	4.82
Jay Witasick ('07)	3.7	73	19.6%	11.0%	1.19	4.64
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Phil Hennigan ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.4	70	20.9%*	10.4%*	1.50*	4.95*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*