Kyle Carr
P
Somerset Patriots
Age 24
LHP
6'1" / 175 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 1.0 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION76 act + 66 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116125vR 134
ERA5.11
FIP5.11
K%16.6%
BB%13.0%
K-BB%3.6%
ROS IP66
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 142 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Hudson Valley Renegades | 24 | 24 | 104 | 452 | 95 | 55 | 5 | 100% | 4.3 | 16.2% | 14.0% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 4.76 | 4.22 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Hudson Valley Renegades | 24 | 24 | 104 | 452 | 95 | 55 | 5 | 100% | 4.3 | 21.0% | 12.2% | 8.8% | 1.1% | 4.76 | 3.48 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 133 | 538 | 117 | 55 | 8 | 100% | 5.3 | 16.8% | 11.7% | 5.2% | 1.9% | 2.64 | 4.20 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 133 | 538 | 117 | 55 | 8 | 100% | 5.3 | 21.7% | 10.2% | 11.5% | 1.5% | 2.64 | 3.36 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | 15 | 15 | 76 | 342 | 95 | 32 | 9 | 100% | 5.1 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 12.7% | 2.8% | 4.24 | 4.01 | +0.8 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | NYY | 12 | 12 | 66 | 278 | 46 | 36 | 7 | 100% | 5.5 | 16.6% | 13.0% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 5.11 | 5.11 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | NYY | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 16.6% | 13.0% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 5.16 | 5.16 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 142 | 620 | 141 | 68 | 16 | — | — | 22.8% | 11.0% | 11.8% | 2.6% | 4.65 | 4.52 | +1.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 16.6% | 13.0% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 5.16 | 4.78 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | NYY | 15 | 15 | 87 | 369 | 66 | 44 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 17.9% | 11.9% | 6.0% | 2.5% | 4.93 | 4.87 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | NYY | 15 | 15 | 87 | 369 | 69 | 43 | 10 | 100% | 5.8 | 18.7% | 11.6% | 7.1% | 2.6% | 4.83 | 4.78 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | NYY | 14 | 14 | 86 | 364 | 68 | 42 | 10 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.8% | 11.4% | 7.4% | 2.7% | 4.80 | 4.80 | +0.3 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | NYY | 6 | 6 | 38 | 160 | 29 | 19 | 4 | 100% | 6.3 | 17.9% | 11.9% | 6.0% | 2.6% | 4.98 | 4.92 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | NYY | 10 | 10 | 58 | 245 | 46 | 28 | 7 | 100% | 5.8 | 18.7% | 11.6% | 7.1% | 2.7% | 4.88 | 4.83 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | NYY | 11 | 11 | 67 | 283 | 53 | 32 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.8% | 11.4% | 7.4% | 2.8% | 4.85 | 4.85 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 28 | 28 | 165 | 696 | 129 | 81 | 19 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.5% | 11.6% | 6.9% | 2.7% | 4.90 | 4.49 | +1.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 156 | 98 | 23 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.5% | 11.6% | 6.9% | 2.7% | 4.90 | 4.49 | +2.1 | ||
| Career | — | 64 | 64 | 313 | 1332 | 241 | 160 | 26 | 100% | 4.9 | 18.1% | 12.0% | 6.1% | 1.9% | 3.73 | 4.16 | +4.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 41 | 41 | 200 | 850 | 154 | 102 | 16 | 100% | 4.9 | 18.1% | 12.0% | 6.1% | 1.9% | 3.73 | 4.16 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Kyle Carr (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.11 | 16.6% | 13.0% | 2.5% | — | 4.82 | 18.5% | 6.8% | 261 | -0.29 | — | — | — |
| Connor O'Halloran L 2023 · 5.02 FIP | 21 | SP | 5.02 | 17.2% | 12.3% | 3.3% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.02 | 104 | 84 |
| Cameron Bishop L 2025 · 4.52 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.52 | 16.6% | 13.9% | 1.9% | .316 | 3.28 | 23.8% | 11.5% | 66 | -1.24 | 2.86 | 305 | 83 |
| Matt Lujan L 2028 · 4.25 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.25 | 15.5% | 10.0% | 2.2% | .326 | 5.04 | 16.0% | 7.6% | 119 | +0.79 | 4.25 | 227 | 83 |
| Jake Zokan L 2026 · 5.12 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.12 | 12.5% | 9.9% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.80 | 24.2% | 22.5% | 37 | -3.32 | 1.80 | 120 | 82 |
| Misael Siverio L 2028 · 4.00 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.00 | 16.8% | 10.8% | 1.7% | .343 | 4.52 | 17.3% | 8.2% | 63 | +0.52 | 4.00 | 185 | 81 |
| Juan Pablo Oramas L 2027 · 3.95 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.95 | 16.5% | 8.6% | 2.1% | .313 | 3.78 | 17.4% | 6.8% | 186 | -0.17 | 3.37 | 440 | 80 |
| Jared Shuster L 2026 · 5.16 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.16 | 14.7% | 12.5% | 3.1% | .306 | 4.69 | 16.0% | 7.1% | 164 | -0.47 | 3.82 | 508 | 79 |
| Jagger Haynes L 2025 · 4.74 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.74 | 16.5% | 11.6% | 2.9% | .265 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.14 | 328 | 79 |
| Aidan Deakins L 2024 · 5.29 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.29 | 17.1% | 11.1% | 4.1% | .267 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 119 | 79 |
| Jesse Biddle L 2025 · 4.83 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.83 | 12.9% | 11.4% | 2.5% | .329 | 3.49 | 23.1% | 13.9% | 113 | -1.34 | 3.35 | 311 | 79 |
| Grant Watson L 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.68 | 16.4% | 10.3% | 3.0% | .344 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.59 | 180 | 78 |
| Hobbs Johnson L 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.50 | 14.9% | 16.6% | 1.0% | .254 | 5.00 | 12.3% | -5.3% | 25 | +0.50 | 4.50 | 143 | 78 |
| Shane Drohan L 2026 · 5.30 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.30 | 20.1% | 13.8% | 3.9% | .308 | 3.29 | 25.5% | 16.3% | 142 | -2.01 | 2.91 | 484 | 78 |
| Matthew Spann L 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.00 | 13.2% | 10.2% | 1.3% | .350 | 5.13 | 15.1% | -1.8% | 45 | +1.13 | 4.00 | 173 | 78 |
| James Paxton L 2028 · 4.26 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.26 | 18.9% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .288 | 3.00 | 27.7% | 21.7% | 468 | -1.26 | 2.48 | 924 | 78 |
| Caden Grice L 2026 · 5.28 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.28 | 17.3% | 15.5% | 3.1% | .265 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 105 | 77 |
| Miguel Cienfuegos L 2028 · 5.52 FIP | 26 | SP | 5.52 | 13.6% | 10.5% | 4.1% | .257 | 4.63 | 14.5% | 5.5% | 228 | -0.89 | 3.09 | 299 | 77 |
| Bryan Radziewski L 2025 · 4.19 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.19 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 2.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.19 | 106 | 77 |
| Darin Gorski L 2029 · 4.79 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.79 | 15.2% | 11.4% | 2.8% | .323 | 4.39 | 15.0% | 5.2% | 69 | -0.40 | 4.39 | 206 | 77 |
| Spencer Giesting L 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.82 | 18.1% | 11.1% | 3.4% | .308 | 4.07 | 25.9% | 13.7% | 25 | -0.75 | 3.48 | 433 | 77 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 87 | 18.0% | 12.0% | 1.00 | 4.92 |
| Tyson Ross ('19) | 4 | 107 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 0.84 | 4.31 |
| Yovani Gallardo ('18) | 4 | 132 | 15.4% | 10.2% | 1.18 | 4.97 |
| Dakota Hudson ('24) | 6 | 92 | 15.0% | 11.1% | 0.91 | 4.25 |
| James Kaprielian ('23) | 3 | 105 | 20.5% | 9.6% | 1.26 | 4.58 |
| Ian Anderson ('22) | 3 | 91 | 22.5% | 10.4% | 0.96 | 3.97 |
| Chris Tillman ('18) | 4 | 116 | 16.5% | 9.7% | 1.34 | 5.42 |