Kyle Carr
P
Somerset Patriots
+0.7
WAR
Age 24
LHP
6'1" / 175 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 1.4 · 2028
ERA4.66
FIP4.66
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%19.3%
BB%11.3%
K-BB%8.0%
IP120
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.4peak
2028
K†4550
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Hudson Valley Renegades | 24 | 24 | 104 | 452 | 95 | 55 | 5 | 16.2% | 14.0% | 1.3% | 4.76 | 4.24 | +1.3 |
| 2025 | 23 | AA | Somerset Patriots | 25 | 25 | 133 | 538 | 117 | 55 | 8 | 16.8% | 11.7% | 1.9% | 2.64 | 4.18 | +1.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Somerset Patriots | 2 | 2 | 10 | 39 | 10 | 5 | 1 | — | — | — | 2.79 | — | — |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | NYY | 22 | 22 | 120 | 507 | 98 | 57 | 13 | 19.3% | 11.2% | 2.5% | 4.66 | 4.66 | +0.9 |
| 2026 Total | 24 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 130 | 546 | 108 | 62 | 14 | 19.7% | 11.4% | 2.5% | 4.52 | 4.31 | +1.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | NYY | 24 | 24 | 134 | 564 | 114 | 58 | 14 | 20.2% | 10.3% | 2.5% | 4.53 | 4.48 | +1.2 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | NYY | 26 | 26 | 140 | 593 | 123 | 60 | 15 | 20.6% | 10.1% | 2.6% | 4.46 | 4.43 | +1.4 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | NYY | 26 | 26 | 143 | 605 | 126 | 61 | 16 | 20.7% | 10.0% | 2.6% | 4.44 | 4.43 | +1.4 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | NYY | 26 | 26 | 143 | 605 | 125 | 60 | 16 | 20.7% | 10.0% | 2.7% | 4.45 | 4.45 | +1.4 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | NYY | 25 | 25 | 140 | 591 | 122 | 60 | 16 | 20.6% | 10.1% | 2.7% | 4.48 | 4.50 | +1.3 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | NYY | 25 | 25 | 136 | 573 | 117 | 58 | 16 | 20.4% | 10.2% | 2.8% | 4.53 | 4.56 | +1.1 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | NYY | 24 | 24 | 131 | 553 | 111 | 57 | 16 | 20.2% | 10.3% | 2.8% | 4.59 | 4.64 | +1.0 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | NYY | 23 | 23 | 126 | 531 | 106 | 55 | 15 | 19.9% | 10.4% | 2.9% | 4.67 | 4.72 | +0.8 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | NYY | 22 | 22 | 120 | 507 | 99 | 54 | 15 | 19.6% | 10.6% | 3.0% | 4.76 | 4.82 | +0.7 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | NYY | 21 | 21 | 114 | 482 | 93 | 52 | 15 | 19.2% | 10.8% | 3.1% | 4.86 | 4.93 | +0.5 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | NYY | 20 | 20 | 108 | 454 | 85 | 50 | 15 | 18.8% | 11.1% | 3.2% | 4.97 | 5.05 | +0.3 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | NYY | 18 | 18 | 100 | 424 | 78 | 48 | 14 | 18.4% | 11.3% | 3.3% | 5.10 | 5.19 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 51 | 51 | 247 | 1029 | 174 | 131 | 17 | 16.9% | 12.7% | 1.7% | 3.54 | 4.20 | +3.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 41 | 41 | 200 | 834 | 141 | 106 | 14 | 16.9% | 12.7% | 1.7% | 3.54 | 4.20 | +2.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Kyle Carr (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.66 | 19.3% | 11.2% | 2.5% | — | 4.45 | 20.5% | 10.4% | 417 | -0.21 | — | — | — |
| Bryan Radziewski L 2025 · 4.15 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.15 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 2.0% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 106 | 90 |
| Sam Garcia L 2025 · 5.14 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.14 | 18.5% | 12.7% | 3.6% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.14 | 101 | 89 |
| Luis Leroy Cruz L 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.02 | 16.0% | 10.1% | 3.6% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.02 | 116 | 88 |
| Scott DeCecco L 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.56 | 14.5% | 11.5% | 2.2% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.56 | 125 | 87 |
| Tate Kuehner L 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.87 | 21.5% | 13.8% | 1.5% | .295 | 2.85 | 16.8% | 7.5% | 16 | -1.02 | 2.85 | 221 | 86 |
| Juan Pablo Oramas L 2027 · 3.99 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.99 | 16.5% | 8.6% | 2.2% | .313 | 3.83 | 17.4% | 6.8% | 186 | -0.16 | 3.41 | 440 | 86 |
| Dalton Sawyer L 2025 · 4.07 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.07 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.07 | 160 | 86 |
| Misael Siverio L 2028 · 3.90 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.90 | 16.8% | 10.8% | 1.6% | .343 | 4.28 | 17.3% | 8.2% | 63 | +0.38 | 3.90 | 185 | 86 |
| Hayden Wynja L 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.73 | 20.5% | 10.5% | 3.7% | .315 | 4.79 | 18.0% | 7.5% | 56 | +0.06 | 4.73 | 154 | 85 |
| Chipper Smith L 2027 · 3.81 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.81 | 15.6% | 9.5% | 1.5% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 109 | 85 |
| Cole Kirschsieper L 2024 · 5.04 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.04 | 15.2% | 12.0% | 3.1% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.04 | 105 | 85 |
| Brian Holmes L 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.31 | 21.0% | 9.9% | 3.1% | .333 | 4.77 | 17.3% | 8.0% | 104 | +0.46 | 3.58 | 205 | 85 |
| Cody Reed L 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.30 | 19.1% | 14.3% | 1.8% | .301 | 3.84 | 22.0% | 13.8% | 181 | -0.46 | 2.89 | 572 | 85 |
| Matt Lujan L 2028 · 4.09 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.09 | 15.5% | 10.0% | 1.9% | .326 | 4.80 | 16.0% | 7.6% | 119 | +0.71 | 4.09 | 227 | 85 |
| Hunter Owen L 2025 · 4.14 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.14 | 21.0% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.14 | 197 | 84 |
| Trey Dombroski L 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.76 | 20.1% | 11.5% | 1.6% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.76 | 329 | 84 |
| Ryan Ramsey L 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.39 | 18.5% | 11.4% | 2.6% | .326 | 3.95 | 18.3% | 8.4% | 13 | -0.44 | 2.69 | 255 | 84 |
| Cameron Bishop L 2025 · 4.67 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.67 | 16.6% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .316 | 3.45 | 23.8% | 11.5% | 66 | -1.22 | 2.86 | 305 | 84 |
| Shane Drohan L 2026 · 5.33 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.33 | 20.1% | 13.8% | 4.0% | .308 | 3.13 | 28.9% | 17.7% | 59 | -2.20 | 2.89 | 400 | 84 |
| Connor O'Halloran L 2023 · 5.08 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.08 | 17.2% | 12.3% | 3.4% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.08 | 104 | 84 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +1.4 | $12M | +$11M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.4 | $13M | +$12M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +1.3 | $12M | +$11M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +1.1 | $11M | +$9M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +1.0 | $10M | +$7M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +0.8 | $4M | +$1M |
| Totals | $10M | $61M | +$52M | ||