Kyle Carr — OGILVIE

Kyle Carr P Somerset Patriots

Age 24 LHP 6'1" / 175 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.1 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION88 act + 8 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114122vR 130

ERA5.11

FIP5.11

K%16.6%

BB%13.1%

K-BB%3.5%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 96 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$3M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4045

CTRL4550

CMD4040

K†4045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Arb-1	$1M	—	—	—
2032	Arb-2	$1M	—	—	—
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.4M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	22	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	24	24	104	452	95	55	5	100%	4.3	16.2%	14.0%	2.2%	1.3%	4.76	4.24	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	24	24	104	452	95	55	5	100%	4.3	16.2%	14.0%	2.2%	1.3%	4.76	4.24	—
2024	22	A+ RAW	Hudson Valley Renegades	24	24	104	452	95	55	5	100%	4.3	21.0%	12.2%	8.8%	1.1%	4.76	3.48	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	133	538	117	55	8	100%	5.3	16.8%	11.7%	5.2%	1.9%	2.64	4.19	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	133	538	117	55	8	100%	5.3	16.8%	11.7%	5.2%	1.9%	2.64	4.19	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	133	538	117	55	8	100%	5.3	21.7%	10.2%	11.5%	1.5%	2.64	3.36	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	20	19	88	397	105	40	14	95%	4.4	21.5%	10.4%	11.1%	4.1%	4.50	4.83	—
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	20	19	88	397	105	40	14	95%	4.4	21.5%	10.4%	11.1%	4.1%	4.50	4.83	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	AA RAW	NYY	13	13	67	296	83	27	7	100%	5.1	28.0%	9.1%	18.9%	2.4%	4.32	3.19	—
2026	24	AAA RAW	NYY	7	6	21	101	22	13	7	86%	3.0	21.8%	12.9%	8.9%	6.9%	5.06	6.70	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	NYY	1	1	8	33	5	4	1	100%	7.8	16.6%	13.1%	3.5%	2.5%	5.11	5.11	-0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	NYY	—	—	96	430	110	44	15	—	—	25.7%	10.3%	15.4%	3.4%	4.55	4.85	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	NYY	21	21	121	512	92	61	13	100%	5.8	17.9%	11.9%	6.0%	2.5%	4.94	4.88	+0.0
2028	26	MLB MLE	NYY	20	20	121	512	96	59	13	100%	6.1	18.7%	11.6%	7.1%	2.6%	4.83	4.79	+0.2
2029	27	MLB MLE	NYY	20	20	119	504	95	58	13	100%	6.0	18.8%	11.5%	7.4%	2.7%	4.80	4.80	+0.1
2030	28	MLB MLE	NYY	19	19	116	489	92	56	13	100%	6.1	18.8%	11.5%	7.2%	2.8%	4.84	4.87	+0.0
2031	29	MLB MLE	NYY	18	18	111	467	87	55	14	100%	6.1	18.5%	11.8%	6.8%	2.9%	4.94	5.00	-0.1
2032	30	MLB MLE	NYY	17	17	104	439	80	53	14	100%	6.1	18.2%	12.1%	6.1%	3.1%	5.08	5.18	-0.3
2027	25	MLB CTX	NYY	9	9	53	224	40	27	6	100%	5.9	17.9%	11.9%	6.0%	2.7%	5.03	4.97	+0.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	NYY	14	14	81	342	64	40	9	100%	5.8	18.7%	11.6%	7.1%	2.8%	4.93	4.89	+0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	NYY	16	16	93	393	74	45	11	100%	5.8	18.8%	11.5%	7.4%	2.8%	4.90	4.90	+0.1
2030	28	MLB CTX	NYY	16	16	98	414	78	48	12	100%	6.1	18.8%	11.5%	7.2%	2.9%	4.94	4.97	+0.0
2031	29	MLB CTX	NYY	16	16	97	410	76	48	13	100%	6.1	18.5%	11.8%	6.8%	3.1%	5.05	5.11	-0.1
2032	30	MLB CTX	NYY	16	16	94	397	72	48	13	100%	5.9	18.2%	12.1%	6.1%	3.3%	5.20	5.30	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		86	86	515	2175	403	255	65	100%	6.0	18.5%	11.7%	6.8%	3.0%	5.01	4.65	+1.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	156	99	25	100%	6.0	18.5%	11.7%	6.8%	3.0%	5.01	4.65	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		69	68	325	1387	249	168	32	99%	4.7	18.0%	12.1%	5.9%	2.3%	3.82	4.39	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		42	42	200	854	153	103	20	99%	4.7	18.0%	12.1%	5.9%	2.3%	3.82	4.39	-0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kyle Carr (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.11	16.6%	13.1%	2.5%	—	4.82	18.5%	6.8%	362	-0.29	—	—	—
Christian MacLeod L 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	16.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.312	4.60	19.5%	5.2%	212	+0.08	3.90	277	86
Jake Zokan L 2015 · 4.89 FIP	24	SP	4.89	12.5%	9.9%	2.9%	.292	1.79	24.2%	22.5%	37	-3.10	1.79	120	84
Cameron Bishop L 2019 · 4.65 FIP	23	SP	4.65	16.6%	13.9%	2.2%	.316	3.42	23.8%	11.5%	66	-1.23	2.86	305	84
Dominic Perachi L 2023 · 5.19 FIP	22	SP-	5.19	17.5%	13.9%	3.3%	.324	3.80	17.1%	6.8%	186	-1.39	3.33	277	82
Miguel Cienfuegos L 2023 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP	5.12	13.6%	10.5%	3.4%	.257	4.56	14.1%	5.6%	242	-0.56	2.99	313	81
Caleb Franzen L 2023 · 4.10 FIP	22	SP	4.10	16.2%	10.1%	2.0%	.336	5.82	12.6%	0.2%	42	+1.72	4.10	155	81
Matt Lujan L 2015 · 4.06 FIP	26	SP	4.06	15.5%	10.0%	1.8%	.326	4.84	16.0%	7.6%	119	+0.78	4.06	227	81
Pete Hansen L 2023 · 4.18 FIP	23	SP	4.18	20.1%	9.9%	2.8%	.283	3.89	17.8%	10.2%	362	-0.29	3.77	475	80
Juan Pablo Oramas L 2015 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	16.5%	8.6%	2.2%	.313	3.87	17.4%	6.8%	186	-0.12	3.46	440	80
Bryan Radziewski L 2015 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	16.4%	10.5%	2.0%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.15	106	79
Tyler Schweitzer L 2023 · 4.50 FIP	22	SP	4.50	19.6%	11.3%	3.0%	.293	4.16	16.8%	8.8%	318	-0.34	3.98	425	79
Hobbs Johnson L 2015 · 4.54 FIP	24	SP	4.54	14.9%	16.6%	1.1%	.254	5.14	12.3%	-5.3%	25	+0.60	4.54	143	79
Shane Drohan L 2023 · 5.18 FIP	24	SP	5.18	19.3%	12.1%	4.0%	.308	3.49	24.7%	15.9%	190	-1.69	2.88	532	78
Jared Shuster L 2023 · 5.04 FIP	24	SP	5.04	14.2%	11.3%	3.1%	.306	4.73	16.4%	8.1%	195	-0.31	3.92	539	78
Grant Watson L 2017 · 4.70 FIP	24	SP-	4.70	16.4%	10.3%	3.0%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	2.59	180	78
Jesse Biddle L 2015 · 4.74 FIP	23	SP	4.74	12.9%	11.4%	2.3%	.329	3.45	23.1%	13.9%	113	-1.29	3.35	311	77
Darin Gorski L 2015 · 4.93 FIP	27	SP	4.93	15.2%	11.4%	3.0%	.323	4.50	15.0%	5.2%	69	-0.43	4.50	206	77
James Paxton L 2015 · 4.22 FIP	26	SP	4.22	18.9%	9.4%	2.8%	.288	2.95	27.7%	21.7%	468	-1.27	2.46	924	77
Kyle Twomey L 2017 · 3.96 FIP	23	SP	3.96	14.8%	7.9%	2.0%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	141	76
Jordan Fowler L 2023 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP	4.08	13.2%	7.9%	2.0%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	124	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.9	111	18.3%	11.9%	1.05	4.92
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36