Ethan Small
P
Sacramento River Cats
Age 29
LHP
6'2" / 219 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 35 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 100109vR 118
ERA4.35
FIP4.35
K%23.6%
BB%9.6%
K-BB%14.1%
ROS IP35
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 35 IP
Grades · Arsenal · Contract
CH-0.5
SL-0.9
FB-2.1
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 7 | 7 | 21 | 77 | 36 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 3.0 | 33.7% | 6.9% | 26.8% | 0.0% | 0.86 | 1.13 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 7 | 7 | 21 | 77 | 36 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 3.0 | 46.8% | 5.2% | 41.6% | 0.0% | 0.86 | 0.24 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 18 | 18 | 77 | 316 | 92 | 42 | 4 | 100% | 4.3 | 24.2% | 14.5% | 9.7% | 1.7% | 1.98 | 3.84 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 18 | 18 | 77 | 316 | 92 | 42 | 4 | 100% | 4.3 | 29.1% | 13.3% | 15.8% | 1.3% | 1.98 | 3.02 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 23 | 109 | 479 | 121 | 66 | 9 | 79% | 3.8 | 22.5% | 13.7% | 8.8% | 2.2% | 4.61 | 4.14 | +1.6 |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 23 | 109 | 479 | 121 | 66 | 9 | 79% | 3.8 | 25.3% | 13.8% | 11.5% | 1.9% | 4.61 | 3.77 | +2.1 |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 2 | 55 | 237 | 67 | 26 | 6 | 5% | 1.4 | 25.1% | 11.8% | 13.3% | 3.2% | 3.76 | 4.22 | +0.2 |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 2 | 55 | 237 | 67 | 26 | 6 | 5% | 1.4 | 28.3% | 11.0% | 17.3% | 2.5% | 3.76 | 3.50 | +0.7 |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 14 | 3 | 13 | 53 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 21% | 0.9 | 30.2% | 3.8% | 26.4% | 0.0% | 4.85 | 1.03 | — |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 14 | 3 | 13 | 53 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 21% | 0.9 | 30.2% | 3.8% | 26.4% | 0.0% | 4.85 | 1.10 | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | 7 | 0 | 6 | 29 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 0.9 | 20.7% | 17.2% | 3.4% | 6.9% | 7.11 | 7.32 | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | 7 | 0 | 6 | 29 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 0.9 | 20.7% | 17.2% | 3.4% | 6.9% | 7.11 | 7.68 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | SF | 33 | 0 | 35 | 148 | 35 | 14 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.6% | 9.6% | 14.1% | 3.0% | 4.35 | 4.35 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | SF | 31 | 0 | 33 | 139 | 32 | 14 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.3% | 9.8% | 13.4% | 3.2% | 4.45 | 4.53 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | SF | 29 | 0 | 31 | 130 | 30 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 10.2% | 12.7% | 3.4% | 4.60 | 4.71 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | SF | 27 | 0 | 28 | 120 | 27 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.5% | 10.5% | 12.0% | 3.6% | 4.78 | 4.92 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | SF | 11 | 0 | 12 | 51 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.3% | 9.8% | 13.4% | 3.2% | 4.45 | 4.53 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | SF | 16 | 0 | 17 | 72 | 16 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 10.2% | 12.7% | 3.4% | 4.60 | 4.71 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | SF | 18 | 0 | 19 | 80 | 18 | 8 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.5% | 10.5% | 12.0% | 3.6% | 4.78 | 4.92 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 50 | 2 | 59 | 260 | 59 | 31 | 9 | 4% | 1.2 | 22.9% | 11.9% | 11.0% | 3.5% | 5.35 | 4.58 | -0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 171 | 7 | 200 | 887 | 201 | 106 | 31 | 4% | 1.2 | 22.9% | 11.9% | 11.0% | 3.5% | 5.35 | 4.58 | +1.9 | ||
| Career | — | 115 | 53 | 282 | 1191 | 292 | 152 | 26 | 46% | 2.5 | 24.5% | 12.7% | 11.8% | 2.1% | 3.51 | 3.82 | +5.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 82 | 38 | 200 | 845 | 207 | 107 | 18 | 46% | 2.5 | 24.5% | 12.7% | 11.8% | 2.1% | 3.51 | 3.82 | +3.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ethan Small (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.35 | 23.6% | 9.6% | 3.0% | — | 4.71 | 22.9% | 12.7% | 92 | +0.36 | — | — | — |
| Hector Hernandez L 2025 · 3.57 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.57 | 20.2% | 9.0% | 1.9% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 121 | 71 |
| Matt Whitehouse L 2025 · 4.02 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.02 | 20.1% | 10.9% | 2.2% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.38 | 353 | 70 |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.83 | 20.2% | 9.6% | 4.0% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 175 | 69 |
| Brian Flynn L 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.46 | 17.7% | 10.1% | 2.8% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.78 | 277 | 67 |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2025 · 3.62 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.62 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .281 | 3.41 | 22.7% | 17.3% | 82 | -0.21 | 3.41 | 153 | 66 |
| Kelvin Marte L 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.87 | 16.1% | 11.4% | 3.1% | .300 | 5.18 | 12.0% | 1.2% | 71 | +0.31 | 3.50 | 360 | 64 |
| David Huff L 2027 · 3.63 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.63 | 17.1% | 3.8% | 2.7% | .271 | 4.00 | 19.5% | 14.6% | 52 | +0.37 | 3.63 | 158 | 64 |
| Andy Otero L 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.08 | 24.7% | 6.2% | 4.2% | .298 | 4.38 | 14.5% | 5.6% | 68 | +0.30 | 2.85 | 200 | 64 |
| Tyler Alexander L 2026 · 5.37 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.37 | 15.7% | 10.7% | 4.1% | .272 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.27 | 128 | 63 |
| Alex Wood L 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.91 | 23.1% | 7.7% | 3.3% | .349 | 3.58 | 22.8% | 15.9% | 367 | -0.33 | 3.05 | 1,009 | 63 |
| Edgar Olmos L 2024 · 3.56 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.56 | 18.9% | 9.7% | 1.5% | .252 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.19 | 203 | 62 |
| Justin Marks L 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.84 | 18.7% | 11.0% | 1.7% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.75 | 324 | 61 |
| Chad Bell L 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.44 | 18.8% | 7.4% | 3.6% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 393 | 61 |
| Aaron Rozek L 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.44 | 17.9% | 8.2% | 3.3% | .336 | 4.86 | 17.6% | 10.1% | 69 | +0.42 | 3.88 | 523 | 60 |
| Travis Blackley L 2029 · 4.97 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.97 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 4.3% | .324 | 4.50 | 10.5% | 0.0% | 137 | -0.47 | 3.84 | 225 | 60 |
| Kyle Hunter L 2025 · 4.47 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.47 | 14.0% | 6.1% | 3.2% | .335 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.44 | 188 | 60 |
| Matt Moore L 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.79 | 18.3% | 8.5% | 3.9% | .334 | 5.49 | 19.6% | 8.8% | 92 | +0.70 | 2.82 | 845 | 60 |
| Roenis Elías L 2026 · 3.19 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.19 | 17.8% | 8.4% | 0.9% | .275 | 4.80 | 21.8% | 13.9% | 50 | +1.61 | 3.19 | 564 | 60 |
| Felix Doubront L 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.45 | 23.7% | 9.0% | 4.0% | .304 | 3.39 | 17.6% | 12.6% | 126 | -1.06 | 3.39 | 291 | 60 |
| Jimmy Reyes L 2025 · 4.73 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.73 | 13.8% | 8.0% | 3.2% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.00 | 200 | 59 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 32 | 23.1% | 10.0% | 1.28 | 4.53 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Robert Stephenson ('23) | 6 | 57 | 26.2% | 9.9% | 1.39 | 4.33 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |