Ethan Small
P
Sacramento River Cats
+0.3
WAR
Age 29
LHP
6'2" / 219 lbs
AAA
peak 0.3 · 2026
ERA4.34
FIP4.34
xFIP4.24
SIERA3.77
K%23.6%
BB%9.6%
K-BB%14.1%
IP50
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
K†5555
CH-0.5
SL-0.9
FB-2.1
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 22 | A | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | 7 | 7 | 21 | 77 | 36 | 4 | 0 | 33.7% | 6.9% | 0.0% | 0.86 | 1.13 | +0.9 |
| 2021 | 24 | AAA | Nashville Sounds | 18 | 18 | 77 | 316 | 92 | 42 | 4 | 24.2% | 14.5% | 1.6% | 1.98 | 3.74 | +1.2 |
| 2022 | 25 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 29 | 23 | 109 | 479 | 121 | 66 | 9 | 22.5% | 13.7% | 2.0% | 4.61 | 4.05 | +1.5 |
| 2023 | 26 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 40 | 2 | 55 | 237 | 67 | 26 | 6 | 25.1% | 11.8% | 2.8% | 3.76 | 4.01 | +0.6 |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | 14 | 3 | 13 | 53 | 16 | 2 | 0 | — | — | — | 4.85 | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | 7 | 0 | 6 | 29 | 6 | 5 | 2 | — | — | — | 7.11 | — | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | SF | 50 | — | 50 | 211 | 50 | 20 | 6 | 23.6% | 9.6% | 3.0% | 4.34 | 4.34 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | SF | 48 | — | 48 | 205 | 48 | 20 | 6 | 23.4% | 9.7% | 3.0% | 4.37 | 4.40 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | SF | 47 | — | 47 | 198 | 46 | 19 | 6 | 23.2% | 9.7% | 3.1% | 4.42 | 4.47 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | SF | 45 | — | 45 | 190 | 43 | 19 | 6 | 22.9% | 9.9% | 3.2% | 4.49 | 4.54 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 33 | MLB | SF | 43 | — | 43 | 181 | 41 | 18 | 6 | 22.6% | 10.0% | 3.3% | 4.58 | 4.64 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 34 | MLB | SF | 41 | — | 41 | 172 | 38 | 18 | 6 | 22.3% | 10.2% | 3.4% | 4.68 | 4.75 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 35 | MLB | SF | 38 | — | 38 | 163 | 36 | 17 | 6 | 21.9% | 10.4% | 3.5% | 4.79 | 4.87 | +0.0 |
| 2033 | 36 | MLB | SF | 36 | — | 36 | 152 | 33 | 16 | 5 | 21.4% | 10.7% | 3.6% | 4.92 | 5.00 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 115 | 53 | 282 | 1191 | 292 | 152 | 23 | 24.5% | 12.7% | 2.0% | 3.51 | 3.72 | +5.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 82 | 38 | 200 | 845 | 207 | 108 | 16 | 24.5% | 12.7% | 2.0% | 3.51 | 3.72 | +3.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ethan Small (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.34 | 23.6% | 9.6% | 3.0% | — | 4.47 | 23.2% | 13.4% | 140 | +0.13 | — | — | — |
| Yuki Matsui L 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.44 | 22.4% | 11.4% | 3.3% | .253 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.52 | 126 | 84 |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.68 | 20.2% | 9.6% | 3.8% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.70 | 175 | 84 |
| Mike Dunn L 2027 · 3.77 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.77 | 27.7% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .294 | 4.21 | 22.5% | 10.9% | 110 | +0.44 | 3.70 | 181 | 84 |
| Brandon Mann L 2029 · 4.73 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.73 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 4.1% | .320 | 3.99 | 19.0% | 7.6% | 128 | -0.74 | 3.59 | 190 | 83 |
| Jake Diekman L 2026 · 3.23 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.23 | 26.7% | 11.3% | 1.7% | .241 | 3.08 | 28.6% | 15.8% | 115 | -0.15 | 2.32 | 455 | 82 |
| Jeremy Horst L 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.12 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 2.2% | .291 | 3.71 | 15.1% | 2.7% | 48 | -0.41 | 3.71 | 108 | 81 |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2025 · 3.61 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.61 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .281 | 3.36 | 22.7% | 17.3% | 82 | -0.25 | 3.36 | 153 | 80 |
| Sammy Solís L 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.44 | 24.9% | 9.6% | 4.0% | .330 | 4.07 | 26.2% | 17.3% | 23 | -0.37 | 2.50 | 190 | 80 |
| Kyle Regnault L 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.83 | 27.6% | 9.7% | 3.4% | .367 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.87 | 204 | 79 |
| Josh Smoker L 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.62 | 22.1% | 8.4% | 2.4% | .318 | 6.63 | 14.2% | 3.4% | 14 | +3.01 | 2.70 | 230 | 79 |
| Scott Alexander L 2026 · 3.29 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.29 | 20.9% | 9.3% | 1.4% | .290 | 4.54 | 13.3% | 5.0% | 45 | +1.25 | 2.82 | 414 | 78 |
| Buddy Boshers L 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.43 | 18.9% | 8.0% | 3.5% | .300 | 3.46 | 24.1% | 15.6% | 112 | -0.97 | 2.83 | 223 | 77 |
| Jeff Ibarra L 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.66 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 2.2% | .342 | 2.89 | 20.6% | 17.2% | 29 | -0.77 | 2.89 | 101 | 77 |
| Edward Paredes L 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.47 | 24.1% | 13.0% | 1.4% | .225 | 3.55 | 23.7% | 14.0% | 86 | +0.08 | 2.37 | 130 | 77 |
| Arturo Barradas L 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.42 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 1.8% | .288 | 3.24 | 16.1% | 9.5% | 34 | -0.18 | 3.24 | 163 | 76 |
| Brian Flynn L 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.49 | 17.7% | 10.1% | 2.9% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.82 | 277 | 75 |
| Kevin Siegrist L 2025 · 3.74 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.74 | 25.0% | 11.6% | 2.3% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.75 | 176 | 74 |
| Chasen Shreve L 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.95 | 24.4% | 11.1% | 2.7% | .269 | 4.54 | 23.9% | 13.0% | 108 | +0.59 | 3.79 | 470 | 74 |
| Keith Hessler L 2026 · 5.04 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.04 | 19.8% | 13.3% | 3.5% | .348 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.29 | 228 | 73 |
| Tommy Layne L 2027 · 3.64 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.64 | 21.7% | 12.1% | 1.6% | .284 | 3.27 | 20.2% | 11.0% | 97 | -0.37 | 1.32 | 182 | 73 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.