Ethan Small — OGILVIE

Ethan Small P Sacramento River Cats

Age 29 LHP 6'2" / 219 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 3 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 100108vR 116

ERA4.35

FIP4.35

K%23.5%

BB%9.6%

K-BB%14.0%

ROS IP3

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 3 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

CH-0.5

SL-0.9

FB-2.1

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	7	21	77	36	4	0	100%	3.0	33.7%	6.9%	26.8%	0.0%	0.86	1.13	—
2019	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	7	21	77	36	4	0	100%	3.0	46.8%	5.2%	41.6%	0.0%	0.86	0.24	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	18	77	316	92	42	4	100%	4.3	24.2%	14.5%	9.7%	1.6%	1.98	3.76	—
2021	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	18	18	77	316	92	42	4	100%	4.3	29.1%	13.3%	15.8%	1.3%	1.98	3.02	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	23	109	479	121	66	9	79%	3.8	22.5%	13.7%	8.8%	2.1%	4.61	4.07	+1.1
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	23	109	479	121	66	9	79%	3.8	25.3%	13.8%	11.5%	1.9%	4.61	3.77	+1.5
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	2	55	237	67	26	6	5%	1.4	23.7%	10.1%	13.6%	2.8%	3.76	3.94	+0.4
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	2	55	237	67	26	6	5%	1.4	23.7%	10.1%	13.6%	2.8%	3.76	3.94	+0.4
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	2	55	237	67	26	6	5%	1.4	28.3%	11.0%	17.3%	2.5%	3.76	3.50	+0.7
2024	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	14	3	13	53	16	2	0	21%	0.9	30.2%	3.8%	26.4%	0.0%	4.85	1.03	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	14	3	13	53	16	2	0	21%	0.9	30.2%	3.8%	26.4%	0.0%	4.85	1.03	—
2024	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	14	3	13	53	16	2	0	21%	0.9	30.2%	3.8%	26.4%	0.0%	4.85	1.10	—
2025	28	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	7	0	6	29	6	5	2	0%	0.9	20.7%	17.2%	3.4%	6.9%	7.11	7.32	—
2025	28	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	7	0	6	29	6	5	2	0%	0.9	20.7%	17.2%	3.4%	6.9%	7.11	7.32	—
2025	28	AAA RAW	Sacramento River Cats	7	0	6	29	6	5	2	0%	0.9	20.7%	17.2%	3.4%	6.9%	7.11	7.68	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			4	2	10	56	13	10	2	50%	2.6	23.2%	17.9%	5.4%	3.6%	8.71	6.00	-0.1
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	29	MLB	SF	3	0	3	13	3	1	0	0%	1.0	23.5%	9.6%	14.0%	3.0%	4.35	4.35	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	SF	31	0	33	139	32	14	4	0%	1.1	23.2%	9.8%	13.3%	3.2%	4.45	4.52	+0.0
2027	30	MLB CTX	SF	11	0	12	51	12	5	2	0%	1.1	23.2%	9.8%	13.3%	3.2%	4.45	4.52	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		16	2	22	107	25	15	4	12%	1.4	23.2%	14.0%	9.2%	3.4%	6.41	4.78	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		138	18	200	955	223	134	36	13%	1.4	23.2%	14.0%	9.2%	3.4%	6.41	4.78	-0.5
Career	—	MLE		115	53	282	1191	288	148	24	46%	2.5	24.2%	12.4%	11.8%	2.0%	3.51	3.72	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		82	38	200	845	205	105	17	46%	2.5	24.2%	12.4%	11.8%	2.0%	3.51	3.72	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ethan Small (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.35	23.5%	9.6%	3.0%	—	4.52	23.2%	13.3%	33	+0.17	—	—	—
Hector Hernandez L 2019 · 3.39 FIP	28	SW	3.39	20.2%	9.0%	1.5%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.17	121	70
Matt Whitehouse L 2019 · 4.07 FIP	28	SW	4.07	20.1%	10.9%	2.3%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	353	70
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	70
Ryan Verdugo L 2015 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	19.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.281	3.36	22.7%	17.3%	82	-0.25	3.36	153	66
Aaron Rozek L 2023 · 4.87 FIP	27	SP-	4.87	17.4%	8.8%	3.9%	.311	4.43	16.3%	8.9%	346	-0.44	3.70	569	65
Kelvin Marte L 2017 · 4.74 FIP	29	SW	4.74	16.1%	11.4%	2.8%	.300	5.25	12.0%	1.2%	71	+0.51	3.44	360	64
Brian Flynn L 2019 · 4.49 FIP	29	SW	4.49	17.7%	10.1%	2.9%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	277	64
Andy Otero L 2021 · 3.89 FIP	29	SP-	3.89	24.7%	6.2%	3.8%	.298	4.36	14.5%	5.6%	68	+0.47	2.86	200	64
David Huff L 2015 · 3.40 FIP	30	SW	3.40	17.1%	3.8%	2.3%	.271	4.06	19.5%	14.6%	52	+0.66	3.40	158	64
Tyler Alexander L 2021 · 5.27 FIP	29	SW	5.27	15.7%	10.7%	3.9%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	5.27	128	63
Edgar Olmos L 2017 · 3.64 FIP	27	SW	3.64	18.9%	9.7%	1.7%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	203	62
Justin Marks L 2017 · 3.83 FIP	29	SW	3.83	18.7%	11.0%	1.7%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.83	324	61
Travis Blackley L 2015 · 4.91 FIP	32	SP-	4.91	15.4%	6.4%	4.2%	.324	4.45	10.5%	0.0%	137	-0.46	3.85	225	61
Kyle Hunter L 2017 · 4.50 FIP	28	SU	4.50	14.0%	6.1%	3.3%	.335	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	188	60
Chad Bell L 2018 · 4.38 FIP	29	SU	4.38	18.8%	7.4%	3.5%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	393	60
Miguel Pena L 2019 · 5.08 FIP	28	SW	5.08	16.0%	7.0%	4.4%	.369	—	—	—	—	—	2.98	282	60
Felix Doubront L 2017 · 4.12 FIP	29	SU	4.12	23.7%	9.0%	3.4%	.304	3.44	17.6%	12.6%	126	-0.68	3.44	291	59
Jimmy Reyes L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	28	SU	4.92	13.8%	8.0%	3.6%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.02	200	59
Aaron Laffey L 2015 · 4.12 FIP	30	SW	4.12	13.5%	9.7%	1.7%	.318	4.39	12.5%	5.2%	192	+0.27	3.51	282	59
Josh Outman L 2016 · 4.53 FIP	31	SU	4.53	15.3%	3.7%	4.1%	.323	5.73	12.8%	-1.0%	86	+1.20	4.53	106	58

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	34	23.4%	9.7%	1.19	4.40
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Colin Poche ('24)	1.0	52	27.0%	9.2%	1.34	3.63
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64