Nate Savino

P Hillsboro Hops

Age 25 LHP 6'3" / 210 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	20	18	45	7.15	4.82	23.4%	15.6%	—	K 16.8% · BB 18.8% · FIP 5.85
2025	23	MIX3 levels	37	0	73	4.93	3.80	19.5%	12.9%	—	K 15.1% · BB 14.5% · FIP 4.26
2026	24	MIX2 levels	31	0	57	5.97	4.74	18.7%	9.5%	—	K 14.6% · BB 10.8% · FIP 5.56
2027PROJ	25	MLBARI	—	—	0	5.44	5.44	15.6%	12.5%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBARI	20	0	21	5.27	5.23	17.4%	12.1%	-0.2
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBARI	25	0	26	5.20	5.20	17.8%	11.9%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsWill Lamb (age 25) · Chris Reed (age 25) · Kyle Hunter (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120128vR 136

ERA5.44

FIP5.44

K%15.6%

BB%12.5%

K-BB%3.1%

Proj IP43

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 43 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	18	45	218	51	34	6	90%	2.3	16.8%	18.8%	-2.0%	3.2%	7.15	5.85	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	18	45	218	51	34	6	90%	2.3	16.8%	18.8%	-2.0%	3.2%	7.15	5.85	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	18	45	218	51	34	6	90%	2.3	23.4%	15.6%	7.8%	2.8%	7.15	4.82	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	37	0	73	333	65	43	4	0%	2.0	15.1%	14.5%	0.6%	1.1%	4.93	4.26	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	37	0	73	333	65	43	4	0%	2.0	15.1%	14.5%	0.6%	1.1%	4.93	4.26	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	37	0	73	333	65	43	4	0%	2.0	19.5%	12.9%	6.6%	1.2%	4.93	3.80	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	0	57	262	49	25	9	0%	1.8	14.6%	10.8%	3.8%	4.2%	5.97	5.56	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	0	57	262	49	25	9	0%	1.8	14.6%	10.8%	3.8%	4.2%	5.97	5.56	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	0	57	262	49	25	9	0%	1.8	18.7%	9.5%	9.2%	3.4%	5.97	4.74	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	ARI	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	15.6%	12.5%	3.1%	3.1%	5.44	5.44	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	ARI	46	0	48	204	35	25	6	0%	1.1	17.4%	12.1%	5.3%	3.1%	5.27	5.23	-0.4
2029	27	MLB MLE	ARI	40	0	42	175	31	21	5	0%	1.0	17.8%	11.9%	5.9%	3.1%	5.20	5.20	-0.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	ARI	20	0	21	89	15	11	3	0%	1.1	17.4%	12.1%	5.3%	3.1%	5.27	5.23	-0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	ARI	25	0	26	110	20	13	3	0%	1.0	17.8%	11.9%	5.9%	3.1%	5.20	5.20	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		45	0	47	198	35	24	6	0%	1.0	17.6%	12.0%	5.6%	3.1%	5.23	4.83	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	149	102	26	0%	1.1	17.6%	12.0%	5.6%	3.1%	5.23	4.83	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		88	18	176	813	125	118	22	20%	2.0	15.4%	14.5%	0.9%	2.7%	5.84	5.10	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		100	20	200	926	142	134	25	20%	2.0	15.4%	14.5%	0.9%	2.7%	5.84	5.10	-1.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Hillsboro Hops · 41 IPFIP 4.17 → 5.11 (+0.93)K% 19.5% → 15.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.46%	—	×0.770	14.98%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.73%	—	×1.150	11.19%
HR / BF /BF	2.70%	÷1.000	×1.250	3.38%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.17 → 5.11, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 16 IPFIP 5.68 → 6.63 (+0.96)K% 16.9% → 13.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.88%	—	×0.810	13.68%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.09%	—	×1.100	10.00%
HR / BF /BF	5.19%	÷1.000	×1.200	6.23%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.68 → 6.63, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 29 IPFIP 5.56 → 5.82 (+0.26)K% 12.4% → 10.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	12.42%	—	×0.810	10.06%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.34%	—	×1.100	17.97%
HR / BF /BF	2.61%	÷1.333	×1.200	2.35%

Result: FIP 5.56 → 5.82, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Hillsboro Hops · 32 IPFIP 2.05 → 2.67 (+0.61)K% 24.0% → 18.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.03%	—	×0.770	18.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.75%	—	×1.150	8.91%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.968	×1.250	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.05 → 2.67, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AVisalia Rawhide · 12 IPFIP 2.60 → 3.61 (+1.00)K% 29.4% → 21.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.41%	—	×0.740	21.76%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.69%	—	×1.180	18.51%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.283	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 157).

Result: FIP 2.60 → 3.61, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AVisalia Rawhide · 32 IPFIP 5.32 → 6.46 (+1.14)K% 19.9% → 14.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.87%	—	×0.740	14.71%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.10%	—	×1.180	16.64%
HR / BF /BF	3.85%	÷1.102	×1.300	4.54%

Result: FIP 5.32 → 6.46, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKACL D-backs · 14 IPFIP 2.83 → 4.31 (+1.48)K% 32.3% → 21.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.26%	—	×0.680	21.94%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	19.35%	—	×1.250	24.19%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.875	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 75).

Result: FIP 2.83 → 4.31, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nate Savino (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.44	15.6%	12.5%	3.1%	—	5.22	17.6%	5.6%	90	-0.22	—	—	—
Will Lamb L 2016 · 5.66 FIP	25	SU	5.66	15.3%	11.7%	4.3%	.280	5.78	20.0%	6.0%	67	+0.12	3.64	178	83
Chris Reed L 2015 · 4.92 FIP	25	SU	4.92	15.4%	14.5%	2.3%	.284	4.67	16.4%	6.6%	81	-0.25	4.67	137	83
Kyle Hunter L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	26	SW	4.32	12.5%	11.5%	1.5%	.258	4.49	12.6%	4.6%	144	+0.17	4.32	188	83
Cody Stull L 2017 · 4.73 FIP	25	SU	4.73	11.9%	10.4%	2.4%	.310	3.16	16.7%	8.1%	81	-1.57	2.57	264	81
Ryne Slack L 2017 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	17.4%	13.2%	2.0%	.308	5.59	13.9%	1.8%	49	+1.17	4.07	212	81
Stephen Peterson L 2015 · 4.59 FIP	27	SU	4.59	13.0%	9.5%	2.5%	.284	3.04	17.3%	6.3%	55	-1.55	3.04	120	80
Joe Kemlage L 2023 · 5.35 FIP	24	SU	5.35	17.6%	11.7%	4.1%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	128	80
Graeme Stinson L 2023 · 4.85 FIP	25	SU	4.85	19.5%	15.6%	2.6%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	146	80
Fred Schlichtholz L 2021 · 4.63 FIP	25	SU	4.63	15.5%	13.4%	2.1%	.343	3.49	22.3%	16.4%	35	-1.14	3.49	175	80
Luis Perez L 2011 · 4.35 FIP	26	SU	4.35	18.4%	8.8%	3.1%	.317	3.32	22.3%	13.2%	42	-1.03	3.32	173	79
Brian Moran L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	26	SU	4.50	17.7%	14.1%	2.0%	.318	2.74	25.0%	17.4%	80	-1.76	1.80	421	79
Chandler Jozwiak L 2024 · 5.33 FIP	25	SU	5.33	16.9%	15.3%	3.1%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	2.86	161	79
T.J. Sikkema L 2023 · 6.04 FIP	25	SU	6.04	16.1%	13.2%	4.8%	.245	3.86	17.2%	9.6%	159	-2.18	3.57	300	79
Justin Thomas L 2016 · 4.25 FIP	25	SU	4.25	13.1%	10.4%	1.7%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.09	105	79
Bryan Harper L 2015 · 4.90 FIP	25	SU	4.90	15.2%	9.4%	3.5%	.236	4.38	17.1%	5.3%	92	-0.52	4.13	133	78
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	78
Ty Madrigal L 2022 · 5.75 FIP	25	SU	5.75	17.6%	15.2%	4.0%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	107	78
Estevan Gonzalez L 2017 · 5.21 FIP	25	SU	5.21	12.1%	13.3%	2.6%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	4.58	195	78
Kumar Nambiar L 2023 · 4.94 FIP	25	SU	4.94	14.0%	13.0%	2.5%	.260	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	221	78
Jason Kershner L 2002 · 4.76 FIP	25	SU	4.76	16.8%	12.1%	2.8%	.233	4.04	14.5%	8.1%	76	-0.72	3.87	100	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	44	16.9%	12.2%	1.20	5.30
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*