Nate Savino — OGILVIE

Nate Savino P Hillsboro Hops

Age 24 LHP 6'3" / 210 lbs A+

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 44 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122130vR 138

ERA5.51

FIP5.51

K%15.6%

BB%15.0%

K-BB%0.6%

ROS IP45

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 44 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†3045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	18	45	218	51	34	6	90%	2.3	16.8%	18.8%	-2.0%	3.2%	7.15	5.85	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	18	45	218	51	34	6	90%	2.3	16.8%	18.8%	-2.0%	3.2%	7.15	5.85	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	18	45	218	51	34	6	90%	2.3	23.4%	15.6%	7.8%	2.8%	7.15	4.82	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	37	0	73	333	65	43	4	0%	2.0	15.1%	14.5%	0.6%	1.1%	4.93	4.26	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	37	0	73	333	65	43	4	0%	2.0	15.1%	14.5%	0.6%	1.1%	4.93	4.26	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	37	0	73	333	65	43	4	0%	2.0	19.5%	12.9%	6.6%	1.2%	4.93	3.80	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	31	0	57	262	49	25	9	0%	1.8	14.6%	10.8%	3.8%	4.2%	5.97	5.56	—
YTD	24	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	31	0	57	262	49	25	9	0%	1.8	14.6%	10.8%	3.8%	4.2%	5.97	5.56	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A+ RAW	ARI	22	0	41	185	36	18	5	0%	1.9	19.5%	9.7%	9.7%	2.7%	6.53	4.17	—
2026	24	AA RAW	ARI	9	0	16	77	13	7	4	0%	1.8	16.9%	9.1%	7.8%	5.2%	4.50	5.68	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	ARI	63	0	66	281	49	37	7	0%	1.1	17.6%	13.2%	4.4%	2.7%	5.23	5.13	-0.4
2028	26	MLB MLE	ARI	63	0	66	281	53	36	8	0%	1.1	18.7%	12.9%	5.9%	2.7%	5.07	5.00	-0.3
2029	27	MLB MLE	ARI	62	0	66	277	52	35	8	0%	1.1	19.0%	12.8%	6.2%	2.8%	5.02	5.00	-0.3
2030	28	MLB MLE	ARI	60	0	64	268	51	34	8	0%	1.1	18.9%	12.8%	6.1%	2.9%	5.04	5.07	-0.4
2027	25	MLB CTX	ARI	28	0	29	122	22	16	3	0%	1.0	17.6%	13.2%	4.4%	2.7%	5.23	5.13	-0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	ARI	42	0	44	186	35	24	5	0%	1.0	18.7%	12.9%	5.9%	2.7%	5.07	5.00	-0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	ARI	49	0	51	215	41	27	6	0%	1.0	19.0%	12.8%	6.2%	2.8%	5.02	5.00	-0.3
2030	28	MLB CTX	ARI	50	0	53	224	42	29	6	0%	1.1	18.9%	12.8%	6.1%	2.9%	5.04	5.07	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		168	0	177	747	139	96	21	0%	1.1	18.7%	12.9%	5.8%	2.8%	5.07	4.66	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	157	109	24	0%	1.0	18.7%	12.9%	5.8%	2.8%	5.07	4.66	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		88	18	176	813	125	118	22	20%	2.0	15.4%	14.5%	0.9%	2.7%	5.84	5.10	-1.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		100	20	200	926	142	134	25	20%	2.0	15.4%	14.5%	0.9%	2.7%	5.84	5.10	-1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nate Savino (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.51	15.6%	15.0%	2.6%	—	5.04	18.4%	5.5%	198	-0.47	—	—	—
Chris Reed L 2015 · 4.92 FIP	25	SU	4.92	15.4%	14.5%	2.3%	.284	4.67	16.4%	6.6%	81	-0.25	4.67	137	88
Ty Madrigal L 2021 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	19.3%	15.7%	2.0%	.329	5.75	17.6%	2.4%	49	+1.19	4.56	107	85
Matt Minnick L 2019 · 5.59 FIP	23	SU	5.59	17.2%	14.1%	3.9%	.302	4.67	23.5%	12.1%	105	-0.92	3.81	147	85
Kelly Secrest L 2016 · 4.42 FIP	24	SU	4.42	18.6%	13.7%	2.1%	.267	3.47	20.8%	10.4%	38	-0.95	3.11	151	85
John Kilichowski L 2018 · 4.99 FIP	24	SU	4.99	17.6%	16.2%	2.4%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	4.10	115	85
Estevan Gonzalez L 2016 · 4.58 FIP	24	SU	4.58	16.9%	15.7%	1.7%	.240	5.21	12.1%	-1.2%	58	+0.63	4.58	195	83
Chris Nunn L 2015 · 5.49 FIP	24	SU	5.49	13.9%	16.8%	2.6%	.350	3.92	19.3%	6.7%	37	-1.57	3.30	180	83
Evan Shawver L 2023 · 5.78 FIP	23	SW	5.78	15.9%	16.5%	3.5%	.327	4.11	18.1%	7.1%	162	-1.67	3.92	278	82
Braeden Fausnaught L 2023 · 4.77 FIP	24	SW	4.77	16.9%	16.4%	1.8%	.287	4.60	17.9%	9.7%	179	-0.17	4.43	242	82
Max Herrmann L 2017 · 5.09 FIP	24	SU	5.09	15.0%	17.9%	1.8%	.333	4.37	12.2%	0.8%	152	-0.72	3.93	168	82
Bryan King L 2021 · 5.20 FIP	24	SU	5.20	17.4%	17.8%	2.4%	.317	2.86	24.0%	14.5%	77	-2.34	2.45	239	81
Jackson Lancaster L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	24	SU	5.14	18.9%	17.6%	2.6%	.315	5.15	19.7%	6.8%	122	+0.01	4.15	142	81
Matt Walker L 2022 · 4.54 FIP	24	SW	4.54	17.7%	12.8%	2.4%	.338	4.73	12.7%	2.7%	41	+0.19	4.21	156	81
Fabian Williamson L 2015 · 5.31 FIP	26	SU	5.31	17.4%	17.9%	2.6%	.289	4.16	20.0%	8.2%	77	-1.15	3.39	154	81
Brian Moran L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	26	SU	4.50	17.7%	14.1%	2.0%	.318	2.74	25.0%	17.4%	80	-1.76	1.80	421	80
Matt Mikulski L 2023 · 6.17 FIP	24	SW	6.17	16.4%	18.6%	3.8%	.303	5.90	16.3%	-3.3%	78	-0.27	4.92	223	80
Andre Wheeler L 2016 · 5.25 FIP	24	SU	5.25	17.5%	12.1%	3.8%	.347	5.01	14.4%	2.4%	29	-0.24	3.82	150	80
Trevor Seidenberger L 2016 · 6.29 FIP	24	SU	6.29	13.1%	14.9%	4.4%	.309	—	—	—	—	—	4.64	101	80
Felix Carvallo L 2016 · 4.60 FIP	22	SU	4.60	17.7%	13.0%	2.4%	.332	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	132	80
Kumar Nambiar L 2022 · 4.75 FIP	24	SU	4.75	18.5%	14.3%	2.6%	.277	4.94	14.0%	1.0%	60	+0.19	3.10	221	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.5	61	18.1%	13.2%	1.05	5.15
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04