Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 5 | 39 | 173 | 49 | 20 | 0 | 31% | 2.4 | 20.2% | 13.4% | 6.8% | 0.0% | 5.31 | 3.10 | — |
| 2019 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 5 | 39 | 173 | 49 | 20 | 0 | 31% | 2.4 | 28.3% | 11.6% | 16.8% | 0.0% | 5.31 | 2.13 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A | Stockton Ports | 15 | 12 | 65 | 297 | 66 | 22 | 13 | 80% | 4.3 | 16.4% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 4.3% | 6.09 | 5.17 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A | Stockton Ports | 15 | 12 | 65 | 297 | 66 | 22 | 13 | 80% | 4.3 | 22.2% | 7.4% | 14.8% | 4.4% | 6.09 | 4.68 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ | Lansing Lugnuts | 43 | 0 | 60 | 258 | 62 | 32 | 5 | 0% | 1.4 | 18.5% | 14.3% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 5.55 | 4.84 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ | Lansing Lugnuts | 43 | 0 | 60 | 258 | 62 | 32 | 5 | 0% | 1.4 | 24.0% | 12.4% | 11.6% | 1.9% | 5.55 | 3.72 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A+ | Lansing Lugnuts | 38 | 1 | 60 | 248 | 45 | 28 | 6 | 3% | 1.6 | 14.0% | 13.0% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 3.47 | 4.73 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A+ | Lansing Lugnuts | 38 | 1 | 60 | 248 | 45 | 28 | 6 | 3% | 1.6 | 18.1% | 11.3% | 6.9% | 2.4% | 3.47 | 4.31 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | OAK | 39 | 0 | 41 | 174 | 40 | 17 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.7% | 9.5% | 13.2% | 3.0% | 4.40 | 4.40 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | OAK | 38 | 0 | 39 | 166 | 37 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.5% | 9.7% | 12.8% | 3.1% | 4.47 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | OAK | 35 | 0 | 37 | 156 | 35 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.2% | 10.0% | 12.3% | 3.3% | 4.59 | 4.68 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | OAK | 33 | 0 | 34 | 146 | 32 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.9% | 10.3% | 11.6% | 3.5% | 4.75 | 4.87 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | OAK | 11 | 0 | 12 | 51 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.5% | 9.7% | 12.8% | 3.1% | 4.47 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | OAK | 18 | 0 | 19 | 80 | 18 | 8 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.2% | 10.0% | 12.3% | 3.3% | 4.59 | 4.68 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | OAK | 21 | 0 | 22 | 93 | 20 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.9% | 10.3% | 11.6% | 3.5% | 4.75 | 4.87 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 50 | 0 | 53 | 224 | 50 | 22 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.1% | 10.0% | 12.1% | 3.4% | 4.63 | 4.34 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 189 | 83 | 30 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.1% | 10.0% | 12.1% | 3.4% | 4.63 | 4.34 | +2.5 | ||
| Career | — | 112 | 18 | 224 | 976 | 166 | 118 | 25 | 16% | 2.0 | 17.0% | 12.1% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 5.11 | 4.60 | +2.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 100 | 16 | 200 | 873 | 149 | 106 | 22 | 16% | 2.0 | 17.0% | 12.1% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 5.11 | 4.60 | +1.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Kumar Nambiar (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.40 | 22.7% | 9.5% | 3.0% | — | 4.68 | 22.2% | 12.3% | 111 | +0.28 | — | — | — |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.62 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .281 | 3.41 | 22.7% | 17.3% | 82 | -0.21 | 3.41 | 153 | 81 |
| Ashur Tolliver L 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.24 | 21.3% | 9.8% | 3.1% | .308 | 5.05 | 13.8% | -5.1% | 35 | +0.81 | 3.43 | 134 | 79 |
| Kevin Chapman L 2026 · 3.31 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.31 | 23.2% | 9.5% | 1.8% | .348 | 4.21 | 19.2% | 8.0% | 39 | +0.90 | 3.04 | 153 | 79 |
| Juan Grullon L 2024 · 4.86 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.86 | 19.8% | 10.9% | 3.7% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.86 | 134 | 78 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.84 | 21.1% | 7.3% | 2.9% | .267 | 3.21 | 23.3% | 15.2% | 73 | -0.63 | 2.44 | 124 | 77 |
| Dylan Phillips L 2025 · 4.01 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.01 | 22.8% | 10.1% | 2.9% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.69 | 221 | 76 |
| Jeremy Horst L 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.06 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 2.1% | .291 | 3.73 | 15.1% | 2.7% | 48 | -0.33 | 3.73 | 108 | 76 |
| Matt Whitehouse L 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.02 | 20.1% | 10.9% | 2.2% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.38 | 353 | 76 |
| Jordan Harrison L 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.93 | 19.1% | 9.7% | 2.2% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.88 | 244 | 75 |
| Dario Alvarez L 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.61 | 24.7% | 12.4% | 1.8% | .336 | 3.52 | 20.7% | 8.3% | 27 | -0.09 | 3.41 | 160 | 75 |
| Josh Smoker L 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.20 | 25.5% | 9.4% | 3.8% | .329 | 4.44 | 20.2% | 11.3% | 59 | +0.24 | 2.66 | 230 | 74 |
| Jake McSteen L 2026 · 4.92 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.92 | 19.7% | 6.4% | 4.9% | .348 | 2.22 | 18.9% | 13.2% | 18 | -2.70 | 2.22 | 286 | 74 |
| Jake Diekman L 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.40 | 26.5% | 11.9% | 1.9% | .310 | 3.21 | 27.0% | 15.3% | 106 | -0.19 | 2.33 | 455 | 74 |
| Aaron Brown L 2025 · 3.88 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.88 | 22.9% | 13.5% | 1.8% | .317 | 4.79 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 129 | +0.91 | 3.88 | 269 | 73 |
| Jason Blanchard L 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.60 | 19.9% | 12.4% | 2.9% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.44 | 171 | 73 |
| Brendan Nail L 2025 · 4.43 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.43 | 19.5% | 11.4% | 2.8% | .262 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.67 | 165 | 72 |
| Hector Hernandez L 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.57 | 20.2% | 9.0% | 1.9% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 121 | 72 |
| A.J. Block L 2025 · 3.64 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.64 | 22.7% | 12.4% | 1.6% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.64 | 203 | 72 |
| Jordan Mills L 2025 · 3.26 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.26 | 23.2% | 9.3% | 1.7% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.64 | 210 | 72 |
| Yuki Matsui L 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.80 | 26.8% | 8.9% | 3.4% | .242 | 4.68 | 22.9% | 11.7% | 109 | +0.88 | 3.80 | 172 | 72 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 38 | 22.3% | 9.8% | 1.25 | 4.54 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |